Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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ricky_v
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ricky_v »

SSridhar wrote: I totally agree that CCP would crumble and XJP would hang from the lamp-post nearest to his Zhongnanhai residence. I also agree that attacks on India and Taiwan would be suicidal for China. It is not always that rational decisions are taken especially by a totalitarian ruler who is bent upon his ideological ambitions, his sense of humiliation and a consequent desire to avenge it, and who thinks of the current geopolitical situation as a never-before opportunity to achieve 'Middle Kingdom' status. In his significant speeches in the last three years, he has spoken repeatedly about unprecedented opportunities of a lifetime staring at China which it must grab wisely. Nobody around him in his third term can offer sage counsel. That's the danger and XJP seems to have deliberately done so. That's why I believe that XJP's third term is dangerous and one for Kinetics.
bold assessment, SSridhar sir though I have some queries:
1) CCP would crumble - what would replace it? is there another power centre to provide sustained leadership? how much time will it take to consolidate power? will the power be top driven or will it be bottoms-up? the current setup is a loose fiefdom leased to prospective candidates to develop, they are beholden to the party
2) No one can offer XJP sage counsel - this can also be taken in a different way, either he has staffed everyone who is aligned with his viewpoint, or he has replaced everyone else who did not provide the proper alignment / synchronicity to his vision and were holding back on reforms that were necessary
https://archive.is/k1NiH
the above is a nikkei article stating that he has staffed his cabinet with lightweights
"Surprisingly lightweight" was how several China watchers described the new lineup of the State Council, the country's cabinet, after it was selected at the recent National People's Congress, the annual parliament.
China's key economic officials, including the finance minister and the governor of the People's Bank of China, are no longer part of the top leadership.


Yi Gang, the central bank governor, was reappointed to his position despite reaching the normal retirement age of 65. Yi is no longer a member of the 200-plus Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and no longer even among the 170-plus alternate members of this elite committee -- a post he held until the party's national congress in October.

The assigning of economic portfolios dismayed many observers at a time when the world is watching to see how China will fire up its faltering economy.
There may be a number of explanations for the underwhelming State Council selections. These include Premier Li Qiang's need for safe, old hands after taking over the State Council with no previous cabinet experience -- he never served as a vice premier.
Whatever, the wings of the State Council are manifestly being clipped. With economic ministers removed from the Central Committee and higher party echelons, the concentration of power has shifted to the Communist Party -- which Xi heads -- away from the State Council.
Ongoing organizational reforms are clearly designed to strengthen the party, and future central bank policies are among those expected to include strong party infusions.

In his speech, Xi repeatedly connected the notions of "great country" and "national security" to party leadership.
Towards the end, he said: "To do a good job of governing the country, the party should do a good job of governing itself; and to build a great country, the party must be thriving."
At his first news conference, Li Qiang promised to support struggling private companies and to promote the long-standing "reform and opening-up" policy. But analysts are already noting that this has to be taken with a grain of salt.
This is because in his own speech, Xi spoke of "common prosperity," his signature concept that places more emphasis on correcting disparities than achieving high growth. If implemented strictly, it could run counter to Li's pledges to support the private sector.


The main takeaway is that China's key economic ministers may be seasoned technocrats but they are political lightweights. They now fall under He Lifeng and Zheng Shanjie, both from Xi's loyal Xiamen faction.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

ricky_v wrote: I have some queries:
1) CCP would crumble - what would replace it? is there another power centre to provide sustained leadership? how much time will it take to consolidate power? will the power be top driven or will it be bottoms-up? the current setup is a loose fiefdom leased to prospective candidates to develop, they are beholden to the party
ricky_v, today, Mainland China has no other political party. Only ~7% of the population are party members.

When I say 'crumble', it does not mean that another political party with a different ideology would replace it. There are a few political parties in China but they are totally under CPC control and they cannot contest electorally. I meant that the existing power structure within the party would collapse. Already, we have seen unprecedented protests all over the country, especially in 100 universities, that forced a complete U-turn to the mindless and draconian Covid policies. Then, there were widespread protests in more than three provinces regarding fraud by several banks. The collapse of the real estate companies has added its own pressure to the slowed-down economy which has no real prospects of early recovery. A few years earlier, the ex-servicemen protested all over the country including in Beijing. The pot is already simmering, I mean. The MSS is being kept on its toes.

CCP has not been a monolith in spite of China being a one-party state. We all know of CYL (Communist Youth League) which Xi and his hero Mao despised. Then, there is the powerful Shanghai Clique. We now have the Tsinghua group etc.

A loss of face across the Indo-China Sea with a failed or even a struggling amphibious attack on Taiwan (or even Kinmen & Matsu islands) going awry would be cataclysmic for XJP and the Han. It would be far more disastrous than the 1895 defeat at the hands of the 'civilizational enemy' Japan. They had a scapegoat then, the Manchus, who suddenly became aliens. The CCP prides itself on having single-handedly defeated the Fascist forces of WW-II. Its permanent grouse is that it was not accorded the seat at the high table later on. If XJP cannot keep any one of his three promises of avenging all these, integrating the renegade province, and making China the most powerful country, then XJP would meet a fate far worse.

It is impossible to predict with any certainty who would rise up to displace XJP. Chinese history is so full of inconsequential persons rising up to setup a dynasty. From the totalitarian Mao, through the Gang of Four, and later the Collective Leadership era with the idea of first-among-equals, to the totalitarian regime once again, there has always been challengers.

The Americans might think that a humiliating defeat of XJP would lead to democracy as it happened (or almost happened) after Boy Emperor Puyi abdicated his throne in 1911.
2) No one can offer XJP sage counsel - this can also be taken in a different way, either he has staffed everyone who is aligned with his viewpoint, or he has replaced everyone else who did not provide the proper alignment / synchronicity to his vision and were holding back on reforms that were necessary
I think both are true. Go back to late 2012 when the drama around the selection for the top post was unfolding. XJP disappeared for two weeks (as he did when Covid broke out too) and the rumour was that he was bargaining very hard for all three positions at one go (General Secretary, President, CMC Chief) and was playing hard ball with Jiang, Hu and others. He eventually got it but there were also speed breakers to him by forcing him to induct factions into the State Council. By the third term he has removed the factions and stuffed his State Council and even the PSC with all his proteges. The humiliation of Hu at the end of the 20th Congress (timing was also important) sent the ultimate and clearest signal.
ricky_v
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ricky_v »

SSridhar wrote:
ricky_v, today, Mainland China has no other political party. Only ~7% of the population are party members.
As of 2022, the CCP has more than 96 million members, making it the second largest political party by party membership in the world after India's Bharatiya Janata Party.
I meant that the existing power structure within the party would collapse. Already, we have seen unprecedented protests all over the country, especially in 100 universities, that forced a complete U-turn to the mindless and draconian Covid policies. Then, there were widespread protests in more than three provinces regarding fraud by several banks. The collapse of the real estate companies has added its own pressure to the slowed-down economy which has no real prospects of early recovery. A few years earlier, the ex-servicemen protested all over the country including in Beijing. The pot is already simmering, I mean. The MSS is being kept on its toes.
sir, allow me to meander while responding to the above point. when the congress convention was due, "every " china watcher had wildly different candidates who would make it to the politburo, that xjp was angling for a 3rd term was an open secret and everyone had enough time on their hands to forecast the way forward, at least in terms of personnel. The path to the congress was also intriguing, different names were thrown up for 5 effective positions (xjp and wang huning were mostly confirmed), and discussed, future princelings were sighted and future policies were plotted keeping in mind the newcomers; the end result: yes he undertook an overhaul and removed any clique holdover, his heir apparent is his former personal secretary, which not many saw coming, yes his name was also thrown in with the others, but never as the successor, but look at Hu Chunhua, the little hu, heir to the cyl and his mentor, big hu, Hu Jintao, some had placed him in the politburo, most others were certain he was the heir apparent to XJP, where is he now? punted into oblivion, vice-chairman of the chai-biskoot plenary cppcc. This episode to me showed that the main problem of dealing with china is the tyranny of language, we are basically dealing with third hand information.

The party publishes a ton of information, the western media picks up those bits of information which suit their narrative and publishes with its usual twist, the indian media picks up this twisted mess and applies their own narrative to it to arrive at something resembling news, an ironic case of chinese whispers, and we here have to decipher the position and meaning of these twisted chicken bones and arrive at auguries to forecast the future, i would argue that the method is not credible. The west and its vaunted vanguard, the free mainstream media press, has been pumping for a confrontation with the ccp for about 10 years now, but it has also been primed for conflicts with the russia for more than that, with afghanistan, syria, iraq, the list is long, we also know that xjp is a mindless dictator, but we also know that modi is a fascist/nazi, trump is a nazi, putler is literally voldemort and is also ailing and should have died at least 3 times now from life-threatening diseases, from the same sources, which of these are true? i do not have the temerity to answer.

I have been following ft for some time now for its news of india, its the usual, every minor agitation, any dissent, any voice of freedom and minority rights and love of democracy and free press in big bold headlines, every consequential political, infrastructure, policy, development news, 404.

What i aim with the above tirade is to arrive at the following point: what ground evidence do we have that this time, this exact particular time, the media is correct? The covid protests were true because it had an immediate result, what differentiates their other protests from the western narrative of our own "daily" chakka-jams by someone disgruntled with life? The follow-up question would be is xjp working on a timeline? what differentiates his going kinetic by the current chinese policy of steadily nibbling territories?

Secondly, what do the people think about it? in our case of farmer agitation, the west was super hyped, for the delhiites, it was just another day of protests throughout the ages. Not the genteel wumao officials, the common man? XJP has repeatedly been on record that his aim is to remove power disparities between people, behind his thoughts and actions, are the people united?
A loss of face across the Indo-China Sea with a failed or even a struggling amphibious attack on Taiwan (or even Kinmen & Matsu islands) going awry would be cataclysmic for XJP and the Han.
how are we certain that an attack is in the offing in the first place? does he have a time limit of mounting an offensive, or reunification before 2049 (their 100 year)?
It would be far more disastrous than the 1895 defeat at the hands of the 'civilizational enemy' Japan. They had a scapegoat then, the Manchus, who suddenly became aliens. The CCP prides itself on having single-handedly defeated the Fascist forces of WW-II. Its permanent grouse is that it was not accorded the seat at the high table later on. If XJP cannot keep any one of his three promises of avenging all these, integrating the renegade province, and making China the most powerful country, then XJP would meet a fate far worse.
You mention these, but then the list of chinese grouses is not exhaustive, what of the unequal treaties? the treaty of aigun where they ceded outer manchuria to russia, of Haishenwai? the chinese seethe daily about the century of humiliation, well the treaty after the boxer rebellion, the main cause of their seethe, where they were pantsed in front of the world was signed with 8 parties: Germany, Japan, Russia, Britain, France, the United States, Italy, and Austria-Hungary.
The Americans might think that a humiliating defeat of XJP would lead to democracy as it happened (or almost happened) after Boy Emperor Puyi abdicated his throne in 1911.
the americans see democracy behind every Bush... but I would posit that the main happenings of the world, as it were, occurred simply due to lack or timeliness of information and or communication, in the ye olden times, some pig farmer in sichuan would not have cared who was the plenipotentiary ruler, now with the speed of sm such trickery is impossible to execute, and as they are so enmeshed in their daily grief of the century of humiliation, the first thing they will do is shut out the foreigners, the only way around it is a civil war, a-la boxer.
I think both are true. Go back to late 2012 when the drama around the selection for the top post was unfolding. XJP disappeared for two weeks (as he did when Covid broke out too) and the rumour was that he was bargaining very hard for all three positions at one go (General Secretary, President, CMC Chief) and was playing hard ball with Jiang, Hu and others. He eventually got it but there were also speed breakers to him by forcing him to induct factions into the State Council. By the third term he has removed the factions and stuffed his State Council and even the PSC with all his proteges. The humiliation of Hu at the end of the 20th Congress (timing was also important) sent the ultimate and clearest signal.
[/quote]

i think ramana sir had an interesting observation some posts back, that the cumulation of the higher powers would have happened with or without xjp when it happened, all the systems for such an eventuality were in place, I will look further into his earlier presidency days.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

I think we should be guided by Chanakya and KS garu who both said
I can't change the past nor can I predict the future.
However I react to the present with the knowledge it could influence the future.

We need to get to reality.
XJP's third term represents a new China which has transitoned from Mao's China.
XJP is most powerful leader since Mao.
However he is not Mao, who was brutal dictator under whose misrule many people died and countries suffered from his insecurity.
XJP last two terms had opposition from the Jiang faction.
Le Kiqiang was the last one opposing him.
No longer.

Lets see things for what they are uncluded by past veils.
One big veil is Western scholarship which views Chian through US eyes and UK eyes.
India needs to look at XJP through Indian eyes.
What is he going to do with all that pwoer that affects Inida.
Rest is water.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by sanman »

Bhutan giving strange denials about China's increased encroachment on its borders (Siliguri / tri-junction area)

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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

In runup to 2024, a lot of FUD will be created by Couptaji and his ilk.
So stay calm and trust the leadership.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by A_Gupta »

This paper shows that China has launched a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in debt distress. We build the first comprehensive dataset on China’s overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and provide new insights into China’s growing role in the global financial system. A key finding is that the global swap line network put in place by the People’s Bank of China is increasingly used as a financial rescue mechanism, with more than USD 170 billion in liquidity support extended to crisis countries, including repeated rollovers of swaps coming due. The swaps bolster gross reserves and are mostly drawn by distressed countries with low liquidity ratios. In addition, we show that Chinese state-owned banks and enterprises have given out an additional USD 70 billion in rescue loans for balance of payments support. Taken together, China’s overseas bailouts correspond to more than 20 percent of total IMF lending over the past decade and bailout amounts are growing fast. However, China’s rescue loans differ from those of established international lenders of last resort in that they (i) are opaque, (ii) carry relatively high interest rates, and (iii) are almost exclusively targeted to debtors of China's Belt and Road Initiative. These findings have implications for the international financial and monetary architecture, which is becoming more multipolar, less institutionalized, and less transparent.
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Datei ... P_2244.pdf (pdf)
Last edited by ramana on 31 Mar 2023 22:35, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Added bold ramana
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

XJP to visit India during SCO summit.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Lisa »

https://dnyuz.com/2023/03/31/the-u-s-wa ... computing/

The U.S. Wants to Make Sure China Can’t Catch Up on Quantum Computing
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by sanman »

SSridhar
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

Chinese 'spy ship' spotted close to Indian coast - ToI
'Hai Yang Shi You', a Chinese "spy ship", has been spotted close to the Indian coast -- 161 nautical miles off the coast of Paradip in Orissa on Sunday.

The ship was located roughly northeast of Paradip port and is currently in the Bay of Bengal. The "research vessel" was tasked to get details including the depth and salinity in parts of the Bay of Bengal. These data are particularly useful for submarine activity in the future.

The 'Hai Yang Shi You' is a modern ship, built in Tianjin in 2015, and weighs about 2,000 tonnes. These ships have been regularly sent into the Indian Ocean by the Chinese Navy and currently, there are two other research vessels in the area. Here is what is known so far about the said ships.
  • 'Nanning', a Chinese destroyer, commissioned just two years ago-- is in the Gulf of Aden. Weighing over 7,500 tonnes, it is a top-of-the-line, heavily armed warship.
  • Another "research vessel," 'Da Yang Hao', is also in the Indian Ocean. A four-year-old ship, it was off Durban in South Africa on March 27 and has just left Mauritius.
  • A third "research vessel," the Xian Yang Hong, was opposite Port Elizabeth on March 27 and is leaving Cape Town for Singapore. Another modern ship-- built in 2016-- and weighs about 1,600 tonnes.
Chinese vessel 'Yung Wang 5' had docked in the Sri Lankan port of Hambantota last August. The Hambantota port was built by the Chinese in the island nation. The ship's docking had led to heightened diplomatic activity between India and Sri Lanka.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by sanman »

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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/beij ... 230403.htm
Beijing issues Chinese names of 11 places in Arunachal
K J M Varma, April 03, 2023

China has released a third set of names in Chinese, Tibetan and pinyin characters for Arunachal Pradesh, as part of its efforts to reemphasise its claim over the Indian state.
China's Ministry of Civil Affairs on Sunday released the standardised names of 11 places for Arunachal Pradesh, which it calls 'Zangnan, the southern part of Tibet' in accordance with regulations on geographical names issued by the State Council, China's cabinet.
The official names of the 11 places were released on Sunday by the ministry, which also gave precise coordinates, including two land areas, two residential areas, five mountain peaks and two rivers and listed the category of places' names and their subordinate administrative districts, state-run Global Times reported on Monday.
This is the third batch of standardised geographical names for Arunachal Pradesh issued by China's civil affairs ministry.
The first batch of the standardised names of six places in Arunachal was released in 2017, and the second batch of 15 places was issued in 2021.
....
Gautam
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by isubodh »

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.rediff.com/news/report/beij ... 230403.htm
Beijing issues Chinese names of 11 places in Arunachal
K J M Varma, April 03, 2023
Can India not set some automatic steps like
- if further names are out we go set embassy in Taiwan
- on next we recognize Tiwan as country
- ....
Exact steps can be weighted weighted in so it show that with each step China is loosing something in return.
We make them directly dependent on the steps they take n some as a bonus points once in a while.

Atleast game theory will suggest that. It also shows we are not silent spectators. And if these steps can be coordinated with QUAD even better.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by yensoy »

^^^^ It's time to float the idea of Tibet joining India. Need to organize a conference "China - gaming the collapse of CCP" and have some folks talk about it very "academically", bereft of emotion.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by krithivas »

Why is India still holding on to "One-China" policy? Why isn't GoI calling Tibet as "Occupied Tibet"?? There should be some logic to this stupidity.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Lisa »

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.rediff.com/news/report/beij ... 230403.htm
Beijing issues Chinese names of 11 places in Arunachal
K J M Varma, April 03, 2023

Gautam
Oh I see, if you want your neighbours wife, all you need to do is call her by a new name. Very novel! :rotfl:
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

This is the legal warfare. Whether Ladakh, AP, Indo-China Sea, East Sea, Tibet or Xinjiang it is the same case. Of course, the law is what it says, for example the Chinese Maritime Laws apply to the entire ICS. China determines when other countries can do fishing etc. It doesn’t accept international arbitration if it goes against it. Then, it denounces judges in vile terms.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by sanman »

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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Cyrano »

China has arrived on the international diplomacy scene with a bang as the mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Western analysts are going ga ga over this, calling it a sign that China is staking it's claim as the world's no 1 super power. European Headless of State are on Beijing pilgrimage these days hoping for a Chinese mediation to get out of Ukraine mess.

How do guru log here on BRF see this? Is China playing the honest broker? Or is it making a showpiece arranged marriage for its own gains, for energy security, reviving B&R etc? Why should bickering parties listen to China? Does China have the deep understanding of what is important for each side and why to come up with lasting solutions to long insoluble problems? Or is it trying to one up India which has become the voice of the global South?

Thank you for your views.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Its a mercantile agreement that transcends other issues.
KSA needs to sell the oil that China needs.
It needs a pipeline for that via Iran which gets transit fees and maybe feeds the pipeline.
So its a mutually beneficial move.
And China can defy the West openly.

India can't yet. Thanks to the politicians.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by sanman »



I found some summarizer which summarizes Youtube videos - so let's see how well it works:
------

TLDR: China is using lawfare tactics and military aggression to assert its territorial claims in Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh, causing tension with India and highlighting the need for the US to shift its focus from India-Pakistan to India-China conflict in the Indo-Pacific region.

1. 00:00 China is using lawfare tactics against India over border disputes in Arunachal Pradesh and Bhutan.
1.1 Law fair is when one side uses legal systems to delegitimize an opponent or deter their usage of legal rights, which can be seen in border conflicts between nations.
1.2 China is using lawfare with India over Arunachal Pradesh and Bhutan, according to a young China domain specialist.

2. 02:41 China's actions in Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh are causing tension with India, with their victory in the Doklam dispute being a setback for India and China claiming Arunachal Pradesh as their sovereign territory.
2.1 China's attempts to change the status quo in Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh are causing tension with India, despite Bhutan's attempts at damage control after their prime minister's interview.
2.2 China's victory in the Doklam dispute is a setback for India as Bhutan's acknowledgement of China's involvement complicates the situation further.
2.3 China has announced the Chinese names of 11 places in Arunachal Pradesh, claiming it as South Tibet, their sovereign territory, and unleashing full-fledged law fare in the Eastern sector.

3. 05:31 China's attempts to dislodge Indian troops on the Eastern Front failed, leading to increased pressure on Bhutan through border talks and propaganda media, while also renaming 11 places in Arunachal Pradesh for the third time since 2017.
3.1 Chinese troops tried to dislodge Indian troops on the Eastern Front but were pushed back, leading to increased pressure on Bhutan through border talks, the Bhutanese prime minister's interview, and Chinese propaganda media.
3.2 China has renamed 11 places in Arunachal Pradesh for the third time since 2017, possibly influenced by scholars from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

4. 07:31 The CNAs think tank paper highlights the need for the US to shift its focus from India-Pakistan to India-China conflict in the Indo-Pacific region.
4.1 A conservative strategic affairs think tank called CNAs has released an influential paper on South Asia and Indo-Pacific written by Lisa Curtis and Derek Grossman, both with extensive experience in the region.
4.2 Two senior defense analysts, one from CNAs and the other from Rand Corporation, with extensive experience in intelligence and security, discuss the current state of US-China relations and the potential for conflict in the Indo-Pacific region.
4.3 The US needs to shift its focus from India-Pakistan to India-China conflict as the friction between India and China has enlarged and covers the entire 2100 mile border, with India confident of US support if requested.

5. 11:18 The Biden administration pledges to support allies facing China's Gray Zone coercion, including India, by offering military technology and enhancing maritime and naval capacity.
5.1 The Biden administration vows to support allies and partners facing Gray Zone coercion from China's campaign to establish control over disputed territories.
5.2 The US signaled support for India in a potential border crisis with China and needs to take policy measures to prevent it while being prepared to help India if it arises.
5.3 Recommendations for the US regarding India include offering military technology, enhancing maritime and naval capacity, and setting up intelligence officials in the region.

6. 14:32 The US and India must work together to address the India-China border conflict and maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific region.
6.1 The US and India should strengthen their intelligence reviews, access and publicize unclassified commercial satellite imagery, proactively criticize Beijing, lean on Pakistan to stay neutral, and extend full support to India in case of a conflict with China.
6.2 The India China border conflict is central to the indo-pacific security environment and has pushed India into dilemmas of whether to look West or East.

7. 17:13 India faces a dilemma of allocating resources for defense on land or water due to Chinese aggression, neglecting peace agreements along the Lac.
7.1 India faces a dilemma of whether to allocate resources towards strengthening their defenses on land or in water due to Chinese aggression, leading to the neglect of agreements signed for peace and tranquility along the Lac.
7.2 Previous agreements restricting heavy weaponry near the Lac have been disregarded, resulting in both countries having their deadliest weapons along the border.

8. 19:04 China's deployment of missiles and bombers in Tibet escalates tensions with India, while the US provides support during the Ladakh crisis and releases a report on the Indo-Pacific region.
8.1 China's deployment of Russian S400 missiles and hk6 long-range bombers in Tibet has escalated tensions with India, possibly in response to India's warming relations with the US in 2006.
8.2 India's longest serving defense minister did not distinguish himself due to his broad focus and concern for exercise.
8.3 Chinese pushback led to the curtailment of the Malabar exercise and a slowdown in India's decision on whether to be equidistant, with a paper recommending India to go back to some kind of equidistance to avoid upsetting China.
8.4 The US has provided India with equipment and clothing during the Ladakh crisis, but India balances many things and may not want too much help from the US.
8.5 Senator Jeff's Merkley released a report with approval from the Biden Administration regarding the Indo-Pacific region, which includes events such as Chinese pressure on Bhutan and the U.S Senate resolution proclaiming Arunachal Pradesh as part of India.


Summary for https://youtu.be/8DmKNj7efFc by http://www.eightify.app
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by A_Gupta »

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-g ... 00668.html

EV = Electric Vehicle
The consensus forecast until recently was that EV penetration would reach 40pc of Chinese sales by 2030. That threshold could be crossed as soon as this year if manufacturers can produce fast enough to meet the demand. “We think EVs will reach 80pc of sales in China by 2030,” said Kingsmill Bond from energy strategists RMI.

Electrification is spreading to light commercial vehicles, up 85pc year-on-year. Over 60pc of buses in service in Chinese cities are already low-carbon. All municipal buses on the eastern seaboard will be electrified by 2025. Long-haul trucks are next in line.
“China’s demand for oil is suddenly going to start falling. Half of China's total car fleet could be electric by 2030. If you add up the numbers, that could subtract several million barrels of oil a day,” said Lord Turner.

“China’s high speed rail network means that there won’t be so much internal aviation either. Oil use per capita is never going to be anything close to American levels,” he said.
OPEC maintains the fiction that oil demand will keep booming until the middle of the century, but this is based on the obsolete premise that Asia's rising middle class will more than compensate for declining imports in Europe and America.

“Whatever they say in public, the Saudis know the game is up. They can see that the world’s largest car market for petrol cars is going to collapse,” said RMI’s Mr Bond.
China is the world’s largest importer by far at 10.8m b/d. Its oil-import dependency has risen to 70pc, a greater level of vulnerability than the US at the worst point of the Arab oil embargo in 1973.

This oil is mostly shipped in tankers through the Straits of Molucca. China is also the world’s biggest importer of liquefied natural gas, which also comes on ships. This is a glaring geostrategic weakness as the superpower clash with the US turns increasingly dangerous.

Chinese strategists can see how the West is using its stranglehold over global tanker fleets, vessel insurance, and shipping finance to asphyxiate Russia. They have also studied Franklin Roosevelt’s blockade of Japanese oil imports in 1941. They know that China cannot risk a showdown over Taiwan until it has a safer supply of energy.

Hence the massive expansion of renewable power currently underway. Great tracts of desert in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Xinjiang are being covered with solar panels and onshore turbines, bundled with extra coal capacity as a back-up to avoid winter blackouts.

Xi Jinping’s original plan was to reach 1,200 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar by 2030. China’s Research Academy of Environmental Sciences says this target will be achieved five years early, given that the rollout is running at 180 GW a year.
Nikhil Bhandari and Amber Cai from Goldman Sachs think China will smash the target three times over, reaching a staggering 3,300 GW by the end of this decade, all backed by a vast expansion of energy storage. They estimate that the county could halve its total energy imports by the early 2040s.
China is not doing this as a favour to the West. It is doing so in order to confront the West from a position of greater strength in the future, and because it aims to become the world’s clean-tech hegemon.
The strategic implications of China having much less oil imports and less vulnerability at the Straits of Molucca are enormous.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by sanman »

China will be able to get more Gulf oil through Iran pipelines and rail lines soon, thanks to China's recent deals with Iran and Saudi.

I see all the Western leftist elites investing heavily in alternative energy technologies, and yet all their stocks are still down in the dumps.

Russians have more than just oil - they've been heavily investing in natural gas, and see that as a natural successor to oil. So while natural gas isn't really useful for vehicles, it's still quite useful for heating homes and cooking, and powering factories and cities. There's still a strong future for hydrocarbon fuels, and the rising trend toward multipolarity means Western Leftists won't necessarily be able to count on dictating to the world what they can or cannot use as energy sources - especially in the face of an increasingly assertive Global South.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by A_Gupta »

The Central Asian - China crude oil pipeline has a capacity of 20 million tons/year
The Russia - China crude oil pipelines have a capacity of 30 million tons/year.(source).

China's overall crude oil imports are of the order of 500 million tons/year (for example)

The gas pipeline situation is more favorable.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by sanman »

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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by NRao »

sanman wrote:
wbzXw8sjdBk
Unfortunate that news has to be twisted for a few clicks.

SpaceX's Next-Gen Starlink Satellites Have Started Falling From Space

Only one seems to have been "controlled deorbit." A few more are expected to deorbit (not fall out). And, yet others will be manually raised.

Bottom line is that these were test articles. Nothing wrong with failures. You just try again.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by sanman »

NRao wrote: Unfortunate that news has to be twisted for a few clicks.

SpaceX's Next-Gen Starlink Satellites Have Started Falling From Space

Only one seems to have been "controlled deorbit." A few more are expected to deorbit (not fall out). And, yet others will be manually raised.

Bottom line is that these were test articles. Nothing wrong with failures. You just try again.
I agree - I was mainly interested in the latter half of the report, dealing with China's activities.

Overall, I'm glad Palki is back on the scene - she does a pretty good job of providing a pro-Indian viewpoint. The ones who get the most khujli from her reports are Chinese and Pakistanis.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by drnayar »

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/defe ... production


An official of China's Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) has said that the country's Shenyang WS-15 engine for fighter aircraft is ready for mass production.

Speaking during the Seventh China Aviation Innovation and Entrepreneurship Competition (CAIEC) in March, Zhang Yong, a project director of AECC's Beijing Institute of Aeronautical Materials, said that from “a technical point of view” the institute has “tackled all bottlenecks” associated with the production of the WS-15 engine
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by chetak »

ShauryaT wrote:I admire the scholarship of Rear Admiral Raja Menon greatly. We should do all we can to build a strong base in Car Nicobar for all the reasons he suggest. I do differ on one aspect. The idea that somehow an advantage over waters is a substitute for pressure on land. Land, when acquired through arms can be a permanent loss.

Image
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Cyrano »

I have expressed reservations on this transshipment terminal from ecological and economic POV s as well. I have a hard time understanding how it can work efficiently so far away from mainland India! And at the cost of a rare pristine eco system we have left.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by KL Dubey »

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 023-02-28/

The PRC faces a nearly insurmountable problem of decline of working population (unless you believe a few PRC-backed yahoos who basically claim "china's old people will work better than other old people"). On top of that, the one-child policy and authoritarian rule for decades has not only created a youth shortage, but also spawned a kind of an oppressed "zombie" society which has severe psychological issues due to lack of basic societal connects such as extended family and roots.

The PRC's stock is waning internationally as well, with its failed OBOR/BRI/CPEC and dubious financial aid practices.

The economy continues to slow.

With such issues looming like a giant Panda, it would be suicidal for Jinping or anyone to get into a significant military conflict with Taiwan, USA, and/or India. The PRC's likely efforts over the next 20 years instead will be to create internal security issues in India, various attempts at intimidation on the India border and across the Taiwan strait, and hope that somehow Taiwan, India, and USA will all fold and roll over.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by KL Dubey »

Cyrano wrote:I have expressed reservations on this transshipment terminal from ecological and economic POV s as well. I have a hard time understanding how it can work efficiently so far away from mainland India! And at the cost of a rare pristine eco system we have left.
I am not sure why this is an issue.

Economically: The Nicobar port seems excellently situated. Trans-shipping of goods by sea to/from the many ports on the east coast of India would be considerably cheaper than land transport within India after unloading at southern indian ports. It could have a large positive impact on the economy of the eastern states of India.

Ecologically: There are of course local concerns (i.e. limited to Great Nicobar island) that must be properly addressed with mitigation plans. However, the location is again excellent...shipping routes between Indian mainland ports and Great Nicobar have no need to get anywhere near the other Nicobar islands to the north, and of course the Andamans are much further north and will not be on the shipping routes at all.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by VinodTK »

Cyrano wrote:I have expressed reservations on this transshipment terminal from ecological and economic POV s as well.
If this logic is applied then BRO should not build any infrastructure in the Himalayas (especially in AP)
I have a hard time understanding how it can work efficiently so far away from mainland India!
Many countries have island territories far away from mainland
UK --- Falklands
US --- Hawai

In my humble opinion A&N plus LD are like two battle groups of Indian Navy (unsinkable aircraft carriers), they should be fully developed militarily to protect them and India. Plus be in a position to threatten any unfrendily navies passing by.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by KL Dubey »

VinodTK wrote:In my humble opinion A&N plus LD are like two battle groups of Indian Navy (unsinkable aircraft carriers), they should be fully developed militarily to protect them and India. Plus be in a position to threatten any unfrendily navies passing by.
It makes huge sense to collocate a large international trade center at that location in Indian territory, along with a large military base. Once these things happen, it will be absolutely "game over" for the PRC in the Indian Ocean both militarily and economically.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by NRao »

Cyrano wrote:I have expressed reservations on this transshipment terminal from ecological and economic POV s as well. I have a hard time understanding how it can work efficiently so far away from mainland India! And at the cost of a rare pristine eco system we have left.
The two closest and two of the top 10 busiest transshipment ports are Klang Port (just outside Kaula Lumpur, Malaysia) and Singapore (the remaining 8 are in China).

A transshipment terminal is essentially a hub (with many spokes) and contributes by making cargo movement efficient and therefore lowering the cost of shipment. Which is why they can be anywhere. It is the spokes that provide "connectivity".

UPS, FedEx, Amazon, etc, all rely very heavily on hubs.

India today uses Colombo, Klang, and Singapore as hubs (for containers, not bulk).

Vizhinjam Port in Kerala is perhaps the best location to compete with the rest (I expect Colombo to die, which will have other geopolitical repercussions). Indians ship 3 million TEUs through Colombo, Vizhinjam, in Phase 1 will have a capacity of only 1 million TEUs, with future expansions to 6.5 million TEUs.

I think the port in Nicobar is meant to compete with any port that China may suggest in Mynamar. IF the Indian port at Nicobar is a success then the costs of shipping goods through any other regional port go up - China will have to pay more, unless China twists arms.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Shankas »

When I use to ship food commodities from Vizag or Chennai to South Africa, the container will be sent to Singapore and the container may lay there for up to 2 weeks due to low volume of goods going to West Africa and the go to Senegal.

If shipped from JNPT they will go to Cairo (7-10 days) and then to Valencia, Spain (7-10 days) before heading to Senegal.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by KL Dubey »

NRao wrote:I think the port in Nicobar is meant to compete with any port that China may suggest in Mynamar. IF the Indian port at Nicobar is a success then the costs of shipping goods through any other regional port go up - China will have to pay more, unless China twists arms.
PRC is already constructing a port and SEZ in Kyaukphyu, and a gas pipeline to Kunming is already operational. These are part of Jinping's OBOR/BRI desires, but there is not much economic potential. The great nicobar port and military base will certainly shut out the PRC as you say, but more importantly increase Indian trade connectivity especially for our eastern states.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by NRao »

If the goal is to somehow impact the Chinese (in the transshipment game) then India needs 4 ports the size of Vizhinjam.

It is vested interests within India that are preventing such ports.

Vizhinjam starts with 1 million TEU "and will expand to 7.5."

Hambantota has a capacity of 18 million TEU and does a business of 7.5 million, with India contributing 3 million.

For comparison: Singapore has a capacity of 65 and does 36.5 (or so), and Klang does 13.5

(Kyaukphyu port is for bulk, not transshipment. Yet.)
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by hnair »

All of the Vizhinjam projections on TEU per annum are highly conservative (hint: it is not handling capacity but projection base on realistic traffic possible) since no one wants to jinx it. Including the adanis.

Vizhinjam is inching towards the finish line and hopefully will shutout Hambantota. Been a bad struggle of 15 years for folks like me and hundreds of others. Add to that the Chinese via their CHEC tried to bid for it with a funky Dubai based character.

The breakwater construction on rough seas and at 10-18 meter depth is the issue. The other issue is the slow progress on a spur rail line from the main line. It is hardly 9kms long and most are supposed to be underground. But has been hanging forever in approvals limbo

The first phase terminal uses fully robotic cranes for fast turnaround and once it is proofed the Adanis are supposed to jack up the pace of the next phases. There are some large landbanks (a rarity in Kerala) that some of us have identified and negotiated with the owners on behalf of govt for logistics parks etc.

Status of breakwater is 2050 odd meters completed with 200 meters to go to reach the 2300 meters of phase1

Image

The port is going to be dual-use and hence vital in keeping China under check from a military angle too, as there are naval berths planned along the breakwater in addition to the increasing size of coastguard fleet based at the existing fishing harbor. There might be a need for a full on naval air station in Kanyakumari district at some point.
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