Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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ramana
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Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

I closed the previous thread and renamed the topic as "Challenge of China".
The challenge is multidimensional as it comprises military, economic and political, and even cultural.

I want to see a comprehensive Indian approach to these topics here and not scattershot posts.
The military response can be in the Mil Forum.


Link to the last page of the previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7610&start=6200

Please participate here.

I changed my mind as splitting the responses will lead to mental silos.

Hence all responses should be posted here to get an integrated approach.


My old BRM article of circa 2000.

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/archives/ ... amana.html
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Re: Challenge of China

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https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/china-i ... -of-limbo/
China-India Relations in a State of Limbo
Beijing’s statements on China-India relations should be reassuring, but China’s repeated aggressive moves do not give India much confidence that Beijing means what it says.
Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, August 02, 2022

China-India relations are in a state of limbo. There is no progress but no deterioration either, at least on the surface. Despite frequent meetings between the two sides, India and China have not made much progress on their border stand-off. There are still more than 60,000 troops on each side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border in regions disputed between the two neighbors, and the potential for an accidental resumption of conflict cannot be emphasized enough.
India’s Minister for External Affairs Dr. S. Jaishankar met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on July 7 in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the G-20 Foreign Ministers’ meeting. According to a statement released by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) after the Bali meeting, the Indian minister raised the border issue and “called for an early resolution of all the outstanding issues along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh.” Jaishankar used the opportunity to reiterate the importance of maintaining momentum and “complete disengagement” in order to “restore peace and tranquility in the border areas.” He called on China for full compliance with the various bilateral agreements and protocols agreed to previously, as well as the different “understandings reached between the two Ministers during their previous conversations.” The two ministers also agreed to continue conversations through different channels including through senior commander meetings.
Jaishankar nevertheless restated the need for “three mutuals – mutual respect, mutual sensitivity and mutual interests.” These were earlier stated by the Indian minister at the 12th India-ASEAN Ministerial Session of the Delhi Dialogue in June.
However, analysts are concerned that there may be an important omission in the MEA statement. It is not clear if the Indian foreign minister presented the standard Indian formulation to his counterpart about the need for peace and tranquility on the border to his counterpart, or whether India has dropped this particular formulation, which would represent a climb-down from the earlier Indian position.
According to the statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Wang spent much of his time with Jaishankar speaking about China’s concerns regarding the Ukraine crisis, which sounded more like China’s talking points on Xi Jinping’s new security proposal called the Global Security Initiative. The statement went on to say that China “opposes exploiting the situation to incite Cold War mentality, hype up bloc confrontation, and create a ‘new Cold War.’”
There was a second statement issued by the Chinese foreign ministry, which highlighted a statement from Wang that India and China “have maintained communication and exchanges, effectively managed differences, and bilateral relations have generally shown a recovery momentum.” The statement noted that Wang said that India and China “should take concrete actions to follow through on the important consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries that ‘China and India are partners, and are not threats to each other but opportunities for each other’s development.’”
A troubling aspect of the Chinese statement comes from the fact that it says that Jaishankar said that there has been “positive progress in aspects such as safeguarding stability along the borders, promoting practical cooperation and facilitating personnel exchanges.” That there is no mention of the linkage between the normalcy on the border and the peace and tranquility in the relationship is worrisome. The statement’s attribution to Jaishankar that “India will continue upholding strategic autonomy and an independent position on international affairs” is particularly concerning since these are not mentioned by the Indian statement.
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Gautam
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Re: Challenge of China

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https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/worl ... obal-focus
India brings China’s LAC misdeeds to global focus
T. BRAJESH, August 27, 2022

New Delhi: China citing “border pacts” to object to the upcoming India-US military exercises has given New Delhi a much-needed opportunity to intensify and strengthen its ongoing diplomatic campaign to expose Beijing’s disregard for written agreements on Line of Actual Control (LAC) among the global community. Soon after a PLA official objected to the upcoming India-US military drills citing “violation of border pacts”, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) through diplomatic channels in various countries and global forums quickly amplified the message that China’s military, which carried out several transgressions across the LAC in violation of border agreements over the last several years including the one in eastern Ladakh sector, is ridiculously citing the same pacts to object to the upcoming India-US joint exercises. China is actually trying to divert the global community’s attention from its misdeeds along LAC, say diplomats. India has reached out to US, several European countries, the United Nations and other significant forums with the message that highlights contradictions in Beijing’s claims on border pacts, highly-placed diplomatic sources told The Sunday Guardian. India has forcefully denied Chinese charges as well.
According to sources, India’s Permanent Representative to UN, Ruchira Kamboj has shared these views with the top diplomats from various countries in the United Nations. “The global community has agreed with India that China is carrying out activities in violation of the border pacts as has been witnessed in the eastern Ladakh sector along the LAC,” sources said. “A top US diplomat told the Indian officials in the UN that Beijing has no right whatsoever to talk about border pacts, given its own track-record of blatantly disrespecting the written border agreements for the Line of Actual Control,” sources added. The Biden administration will come on record with these views against Chinese charges, sources add.
In fact, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has already highlighted the issue of China violating border agreements along the LAC on several occasions. “India wanted China to refer to the issues related to border agreements, which it finally did, thereby giving New Delhi a chance to sharpen its attacks against Beijing,” an official said.
Only a few days ago, Jaishankar in Brazil said, “China is disregarding border pacts, which is clearly casting a shadow on the relationship between the two countries.” “We are going through a very difficult phase. We have an agreement with China going back to the 1990s which prohibits bringing mass troops to the border areas. They have disregarded that. What happened in Galwan two years ago has not been resolved and that is clearly casting a shadow (on relations),” said Jaishankar. After the Quad foreign ministers’ meeting, Jaishankar in Australia had slammed China for disregarding the written agreements with India on not massing troops at the border. Jaishankar had also said that it is an issue of legitimate concern for the entire international community. The Chinese government has been terribly upset with India accusing it of disregarding the written border pacts. So, now a PLA official tried to put the similar blame on India as New Delhi and Washington prepare for the joint drills. Sources said that it is a diplomatic triumph that Beijing is now talking about border pacts, which gave New Delhi a good chance to seek global focus on violations of border agreements by China itself.
“We firmly oppose any third party to meddle in the China-India border issue in any form,” PLA senior colonel Tan Kefei, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence, recently said. In Delhi, the MEA spokesperson ArindamBagchi rejected Tan’s allegation, saying that the India-US exercises are “completely different” from the situation at the LAC. He denied that they were “targeting” China or were violative of previous agreements. Bagchi said that India has always held that the two sides should “stick to” past agreements. “Obviously, that hasn’t happened”, he added, referring to Chinese transgressions along the LAC.
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Re: Challenge of China

Post by Cyrano »

Why do we need to do so much canvassing instead of simply making one statement? Like the saying goes, your friends don't need explanations, your enemies won't believe you.

I get a feeling Indian diplomacy still seeks to convince and be understood and keeps reaching out like a teenager wanting to belong in a yuppy group and needs reassurances to feel secure.

As the 5th largest economy in the world now, we should start weaning off this "shaping world opinion in favour of our right(eous) stand" habit.

This kind of presentations and dossier distribution is a comfort zone of our diplomacy - we need to outgrow this and do other, newer types of diplomatic actions, IMHO.
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Re: Challenge of China

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My point is we should get to a position where the world strains it's eyes and ears to catch what Delhi is saying than keep going around the world seeking approval. If we change our habits others will change theirs.
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Re: Challenge of China

Post by ramana »

Also, India suffers from the same jaundiced experts used to sitting on the sidelines and criticizing the govt.
Even if there is progress, they wouldn't know with the cataract eyes.

For instance, SJS is in Latin America and is building support after the pandemic.
His visit it Brazil is important as part of BRICS.

The US objects to Indian military drills with Russia while it conducts drills with India.
Similarly, China objects to Indian drills with the US.
Its to be expected.
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Re: Challenge of China

Post by Cyrano »

US objection to Rostov was more of a whimper actually! :)
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Re: Challenge of China_Political and Economic Responses

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https://www.news9live.com/world/china-a ... ame-182712
China accuses India of a cyber attack on Pak using Chinese code name
KV Ramesh, 14 July 2022

Cyber warfare is no longer merely the stuff of sci-fi movies such as The Matrix, Skyfall, and V for Vendetta, and is being practised by countries across the globe, as the most effective way to hobble the military and economic capabilities of their enemies and to create social and cultural strife. The art of making war in the current century will be more than just massed attacks, deploying lethal fighter aircraft and tanks to conquer and occupy enemy territory. With technology becoming the brain and brawn of modern states and their armies, war planners see cyber tools as the next generation of destructive weapons, capable of degrading the war-making capabilities of rivals. The sinister aspect of cyber warfare is that a country practising it does not have to declare war against its enemy. Its computer geeks can launch guerrilla phishing attacks while masking their identity, stealing military and industrial intelligence, and disrupting communications and network hubs. Across the globe, in hundreds of high-tech facilities, coders and hackers are working round-the-clock to mount untraceable computer attacks on countries that are identified as enemies or rivals of their own or to identify such attacks and nullify them. The peculiar feature of cyber warfare is that technological advances in computer sciences do not make a country less vulnerable, but probably more. The increasing computerisation and deployment of artificial intelligence in societies make them targets of attack since knocking out centralised network hubs could result in catastrophic disruptions. In June 2021, the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency put out an unusual advisory. The advisory titled Joint Cybersecurity Advisory: Chinese Gas Pipeline Intrusion Campaign, 2011 to 2013 aimed to raise awareness of the risks to and improve the cyber protection of critical infrastructure. The advisory followed a grand jury indictment of four Chinese nationals, residents in China and employed by the Chinese ministry of internal security for a campaign to hack into the computer systems of dozens of victim companies, universities and government entities in the United States and abroad between 2011 and 2018. The attacks were attributed to an Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) group named APT40. The surprising aspect of the advisory was that the first attacks had taken place in 2011 and the perpetrators were identified only much later. That is how effectively the Chinese cyber actors had masked themselves. China's cyber attack capability has now been recognised as one of the most potent among major tech powers, and concerns have been expressed in potential target countries. These include the US, India, Japan, Australia, all members of Quad, and South Korea. The recent Quad virtual summit took note of the threat and the members of the Dialogue group decided to coordinate their activities to nullify such threats. The Chinese media has now claimed that an Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) group based in India and using the code name 'Confucius", had launched fresh attacks on the Pakistani government and military institutions.
Global Times reported, quoting Chinese cybersecurity company Antiy, that the group's earliest attacks could be traced back to 2013. It mainly targeted governments, military and energy sectors in China, Pakistan and Bangladesh to steal sensitive data. The GT report quoted Li Bosong, chief engineer of Antiy, the group uses the command "Confucius says" to deliver its attacks.
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Gautam
Slightly older article, I apologize if already posted. There are some articles in the internet accusing India of doing what China has been doing for years: cyber attacks on your opponents.
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Re: Challenge of China_Political and Economic Responses

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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/09/worl ... order.html
2 Years After Deadly Fistfights, India and China Pull Back From Border
The two sides, after 16 rounds of talks, made an announcement a week before their leaders will meet in Uzbekistan.
Sameer Yasir, Sept. 9, 2022

SRINAGAR, Kashmir — Their soldiers have fought with fists, rocks and wooden clubs along a disputed frontier high in the Himalayas. Both India and China have said they don’t want a war, but the brawls led them to move thousands of soldiers to inhospitable terrain.
Now, the two nuclear-armed neighbors appear to be moving toward de-escalation after a conflict that endangered regional stability, with officials from both sides agreeing to pull back soldiers from friction points along their disputed border in the Ladakh region.
“The Indian and Chinese troops in the area of Gogra-Hot Springs have begun to disengage in a coordinated and planned way, which is conducive to the peace and tranquillity in the border areas,” India’s Defense Ministry said on Thursday in a statement that the Chinese government also issued in almost identical form.
The border tensions escalated after India unilaterally stripped its part of the disputed Kashmir region of its semiautonomous status in August 2019. China, which also controls a portion of Kashmir, started a troop buildup along its side of the border with Ladakh, which had been part of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir before New Delhi split the region. (Pakistan also controls part of Kashmir.)
Beijing called India’s decision to cement its control over Kashmir “illegal and invalid.” India responded by saying it was an internal matter.
Months later, in June 2020, Indian and Chinese soldiers squared off after China’s military moved tens of thousands of troops and artillery to disputed areas, including the strategic Galwan Valley. Fighting between the two sides left 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops dead in the worst border clash between the two nations since 1967.
Not a single shot was fired, following a longstanding code against using firearms, but the soldiers went at each other with fists, some possibly studded with nails or wrapped in barbed wire.
Since a major war in 1962, China and India have largely contained disputes through talks and treaties. Over the decades, there have been flare-ups along the 2,100-mile frontier between the two countries, which is referred to as the Line of Actual Control and is not well defined. But they did not result in a major escalation.
After that changed dramatically two years ago, the two sides looked to ease tensions, holding 16 rounds of commander-level talks, the last one in July.
After the announcement of the pullback in Gogra-Hot Springs, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement on Friday that “the two sides have agreed to cease forward deployments in this area in a phased, coordinated and verified manner, resulting in the return of the troops of both sides to their respective areas.”
Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a regular briefing on Friday afternoon: “China firmly safeguards its sovereignty and territorial integrity. This position has not changed in any way. It is very firm.”
She added: “China is committed to resolving differences through dialogue and consultation. This is why we have been in communication with India on border issues through diplomatic and military channels.”
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-11/ ... /101407062
Why India wants a bigger navy and to build the ships on home soil
Toby Mann, 10/09/2022

In recent years, the focus of India's military strategy has broadened, with a growing emphasis on building up its sea power.
Last week, it bolstered its naval power with its first locally made aircraft carrier — the $3.7 billion INS Vikrant — taking to the seas.
"The security concerns of the Indo-Pacific and the Indian Ocean region were ignored in the past but it is our top priority today," Prime Minister Narendra Modi Modi said at the vessel's commissioning ceremony.
However, experts say this goal is being hampered by its lack of a significant domestic arms manufacturing industry.
India's moves to build up its naval power come — not coincidentally — as China is rapidly building up its own.
Historically, the land borders with Pakistan and China have been India's main concern and while they would continue to be significant, things had shifted, Ashok Sharma from the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre told the ABC.
"In the past, it was all India–Pakistan border, India–China border, so the navy was ignored," he said.
"It is the rise of the Indo-Pacific in strategic significance that has pushed India to invest more and more [in its navy]."
Ian Hall from the Griffith Asia Institute said India remained the dominant sea power in the Indian Ocean, able to project its power into the South China Sea and even the Western Pacific.
But China in the past decade has gone from zero to three aircraft carriers in service, with plans to have a fleet of six in the near future.
In total, it has more than 300 ships and is building another 50 or more.
"China's navy is growing very fast," Dr Hall told the ABC.
"It is unlikely that India will acquire that many ships anytime soon, so China will soon have a numerical advantage, at least."
While the INS Vikrant is one of the world's biggest naval vessels, crewed by 1,600 sailors, it is dwarfed by China's newest carrier.
Launched in June, the Fujian is named for the province opposite Taiwan.
"The Fujian is almost twice the size of the INS Vikrant," Dr Hall said.
According to Dr Hall, the challenge for other countries, including Australia, is to work out how best to combine their fleets to ensure that China is deterred from using all of that power.
"Tensions are already high [in the region]," Dr Hall said.
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Gautam
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/ex ... 38611.html
Narendra Modi, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin come to the table: What to expect from crucial SCO summit?
This year’s Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit will be Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first overseas visit following the COVID-19 outbreak two years ago. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to hold several bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the high-level talks
FP Explainers, September 12, 2022

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese president Xi Jinping will be face-to-face at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan on 15 and 16 September.
This will be the Chinese premier’s first overseas visit since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic two years ago.
Confirming Xi’s visit to the neighbouring Central Asian nation, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said he will travel to Uzbekistan from 14 to 16 September to participate in the 22nd meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO in the Uzbek city of Samarkand.
Xi will also make a state visit to Kazakhstan.
Besides Modi and Xi, Russian president Vladimir Putin, Pakistan prime minister Shehbaz Sharif and Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi are also expected to mark their presence at the summit.
.....
Modi at SCO summit
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said on Sunday that Modi will visit Uzbekistan on 15-16 September.
Modi is also likely to hold multiple bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the crucial SCO summit.
“At the invitation of the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be visiting Samarkand, Uzbekistan on 15-16 September 2022 to attend the 22nd Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO),” MEA said in a statement, as per ANI.
A meeting between Modi and Uzbekistan president Mirziyoyev is certain, Indian Express reported.
Even though there is no official yet, sources told Indian Express that the Indian prime minister may have bilateral meetings with Putin and Raisi.
Modi and Xi will meet in person after their meeting at Brasília on the sidelines of the 2019 BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) Summit.
Their meet will after India and China’s disengagement from one of the last friction points of the Gogra-Hotsprings area at Patrol Point 15 in eastern Ladakh, which can lead to de-escalation of tensions on the border between the two countries.
Whether or not Modi will convene a bilateral meeting with his Pakistan counterpart remains to be seen.
......
Gautam
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Cyrano »

I feel disengagement in Gogra-Hotsprings was a precondition set by India for NaMo attending SCO summit. Recent conversations with Russia and EAM's visit to Brazil was also used to hammer home this point through BRICS partners as well.

We would have said what's the point of this "cooperation" when China doesn't respect the agreements on borders and takes aggressive postures? We won't play along with such hypocrisy.

Not wanting to devalue SCO with Indian PM abstaining, China gave in. They will do some other mischief soon to make up for it.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

That even a child can conclude after the announcement.
You get credit if you made that before the announcement of the PP-15 withdrawal!!!

After the Ukraine crisis it's important for the three BRICS to meet.
There will be bilateral meetings.
Don't see troika meet on the agenda.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

https://stratnewsglobal.com/china/deal- ... ts-at-sco/

Deal On Gogra-Hot Springs Brightens Modi-Xi Bilateral Prospects At SCO

Surya Gangadharan September 14, 20223 minutes read

Deal On Gogra-Hot Springs Brightens Modi-Xi Bilateral Prospects At SCO

SAMARKAND: Does the India-China agreement on withdrawal of troops from Gogra-Hot Springs lay the ground for a Modi-Xi Jinping bilateral at Samarkand’s SCO summit? The withdrawal meets the line in the sand drawn by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar—no improvement in bilateral relations could take place without China pulling back its forces from areas occupied two years ago in Ladakh.

Recall his words as recently as last month: “The state of the border will determine the state of the relationship,” and “…sovereignty and territorial integrity will have to be respected. Initiatives that impact the region must be consultative not unilateral.”

In India’s eyes, the withdrawal will not negate the perception of Xi Jinping as a backstabber and therefore cannot be trusted (the contrary view is the withdrawal suggests the Ladakh clashes were not planned or scripted in Beijing, it was triggered locally, else why the withdrawal?).

Many of the initiatives put in place since the Ladakh clashes (closer ties with Quad members, economic measures against China) are expected to continue. But for India as for China, there’s a need to put the relationship back on track in order to focus on the geopolitical and geo-economic strains triggered by the Ukraine war.

Also, India takes over the chair of the SCO next year, which means inviting President Xi to the annual summit. Minus a deal on withdrawal, a full-scale heads of state summit with Xi attending would have been doubtful, perhaps even embarrassing for host and guest. Now, Modi can be expected to invite Xi to the summit or he could even make an announcement to that effect to all the SCO members.

A multilateral setting like the SCO is a platform that offers many advantages. Delegations and even leaders can meet quietly without fanfare and messages can be passed on. One understands that the Doklam standoff of 2017 was worked out at such a multilateral meeting. Not that the SCO can help us rework relations with China or Pakistan but it provides a forum to meet officials from both countries.

The SCO is also crucial to observe and track the geopolitical contestation underway in Central Asia. Given its borders with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, China sees the region as vital to its security and providing economic opportunities. With the Ukraine war disrupting port operations in Europe, a land corridor through Central Asia has become more feasible. India has benefited with goods from Russia transiting land-locked Central Asia to the Iranian port of Chabahar and from thence by ship to Gujarat. Trade, as the saying goes, will eventually find its way.

For all these reasons, more and more countries are lining up to join the SCO. Iran, which borders the Caspian Sea, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, is expected to be admitted as a member during this summit. Count on Iran to play its own game in the region, adding another layer to the contestation underway.

Important to note that China is the dominant player here and India and other countries have to work hard to see how best they can promote their interests (and to that extent pressure China).
Surya Gangadharan


© 2022, SNG. All rights reserved

Very important assessment by veteran journalist.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-62886142
BBC News, Modi at SCO: India-China ties under spotlight at key security summit
Zoya Mateen, BBC News, 15/9/2022

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to join Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a security summit that is being described as an "alternative" to the West.
Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) - which includes Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and Central Asian nations - are meeting in Uzbekistan on 15 and 16 September.
The war in Ukraine and growing tensions between China and the West are expected to loom large over the talks.
But the spotlight will also be on Mr Modi who is expected to hold talks with his Russian and Chinese counterparts.
What is India's role in the summit?
India occupies a somewhat unique position in the SCO. While Delhi is a full-time member of the group led by Beijing and Russia, it's also a part of the Quad, an alliance with the US, Japan and Australia.
Both Beijing and Moscow have criticised the Quad. Chinese officials have even termed it the "Asian Nato". Delhi has been balancing this diplomatic tightrope as it wants to keep its relations cordial with the West and also Russia.
Despite pressures from the West, Delhi didn't condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine directly. However, it did talk about the importance of respecting territorial boundaries and backed talks to resolve the crisis.
Delhi has also increased its oil imports from Moscow - something which is likely to come up when Mr Modi holds bilateral talks with Mr Putin on Thursday.
The two leaders will discuss Russian-Indian cooperation within the UN and the G20, Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters.
"This is particularly important because India will preside in the UN Security Council in December, and in 2023, India will lead the SCO and also chair the G20," he was quoted as saying.
This will also be the first time that Mr Modi and Mr Xi will come face to face since clashes between the two countries' armies in 2020. The clash over a long-running Himalayan border dispute left 20 Indian soldiers dead; China said later it lost four troops.
The two sides have just completed a fourth round of disengagement at one of the main friction points after a year-long stalemate, according to reports.
There is also speculation over whether Mr Modi will have any substantial discussions with his Pakistani counterpart Shahbaz Sharif, who became PM in April.
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https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 895491.ece
On the sidelines of SCO, all eyes on Russia-India-China ties
Suhasini Haidar, SAMARKAND, SEPTEMBER 15, 2022

Russia has attempted to revive the RIC trilateral format, with little luck so far
Seven months after they announced a “no-limits” partnership, which was followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping renewed their vows in a bilateral meeting just ahead of the SCO Summit in Samarkand.
While a Russia-India-China trilateral summit, that had been outlooked by Kremlin officials last December is considered unlikely to happen on Friday given continuing tensions in India-China ties, experts say Mr. Putin could also play a role in “encouraging” Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mr. Xi to resolve differences over the military stand-off at the Line of Actual Control.
“You cannot rule out that Mr. Putin will try to bring the Indian and Chinese leaders to a conversation,” said Pankaj Saran, former Deputy National Security Adviser, former Ambassador to Russia and an expert on the region. He also pointed to the role Russia played during the SCO ministerial meetings in Moscow in September 2020 to ensure an RIC meeting on the sidelines between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, hosted by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
The meeting was followed by a bilateral meeting between Mr. Wang and Mr. Jaishankar and was understood to have facilitated the first thaw in the relationship after the Galwan killings in June that year.
In December last year, Mr. Putin’s aide at the Kremlin had announced that the RIC trilateral would take place “in the near future”, and during talks with Mr. Modi in April this year, Mr. Lavrov said he had proposed a meeting of the “troika’s” leadership at one of a number of international conferences that would be held this year.
“RIC is a Russian effort, and it is important to remember that while neither China nor India may push for the RIC, they will not take it off the table, either,” said Mr. Saran. “Eventually, it will all depend on India-China ties,” he added, referring to the breakdown in ties over the LAC stand-off.
Growing partnership
India has also watched the growing Russia-China partnership as well as the increasing Russian dependency on China in the face of Western sanctions with some concern, particularly if it could impact New Delhi’s traditional partnership with Russia. During their meeting in Samarkand, Mr. Xi said China was “ready to work” with Russia on demonstrating the “responsibility of major powers”, while Mr. Putin supported the “One China” principle and criticised the U.S.’s role in Taiwan, both stands that would worry New Delhi.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

I wrote this in Sept 2020 in the Mil Forum.

viewtopic.php?p=2460666#p2460666
Philip wrote:In the piece in a US rag, the author is derisive of us meeting a long drawn out because of the cost factor to us.If we are very prudent and exercise cost-effectiveness in defence acquisitions,we can weather any storm from Han-land.
Right now,every arms OEM is peddling their wares from west to east.The latest,the F-15E as a magic bullet for the IAF failing to remember the 12-0 victoey by the IAF against the same birds,earlier version though, some years ago in exercises against rhe IAF with its MKIs and Bisons. Similarly the east/ Ru havd been tempting us with aircraft from MIG-35s,SU-35s,SU-57s et al.The Europeans with more Raffys,Typhoons- a deal which included civil aircraft tech too,.
What the IAF require to counter the Sino- Pak JV are numbers. Here delays and low prod. rate of the LCA is affecting our inventory. Whatever superiority we may have in skills,battle experience,etc.,the Hans have large numbers of everything to throw at us and are factoring in large casualties in their quest for victory. When you add the Paki complement to the occasion, the value of numbers becomes immediately apparent.

Therefore,now is the time for the GOI to fast-track cost-effectivd solutions for our needs on all fronts. Every $ saved is a $ earned.
Hence the negative import list from MOD and kickstarting the Defence mfg under Phase 2 of #AtmaNirbarBharat

Its not just numbers but differetn way of fighint is needed.

After the Galwan attack:

Please tally up

1)Trade surplus loss

2) Tech companies like tencent/byte dance taking hits

3) Loss of investment opportunities in road/rail/telecom sectors in India

4) Loss of over 35 mountain tops in chushul

5) Over 60-115 soldiers in Galwan

6) Losing Maldives-SL to India-US

7) Cancellation of Kra canal by Thailand under sustained Indo-US-Japan pressure

8) India started app ban that is spreading to US and EU

9) Germany/France and Uk signalling in indo-pacific

For the first time like forever,thé costs for the Chinese are HUGE

Since Modi ji took over India has successfully staved off:-

1) Depsang
2) Chumar
3) Doklam, &
4)Ladakh

With the escalation in actions by the Chinese and counteractions from Indians

Something to reflect on. As it was said it is multi-dimensional.

The biggest boost to me is the end of the myth of ten-foot China men haunting Delhi Lootyens since 1962.

The military and common people never fell for this.
But the Congress party and Babucracy especially IFS fell for this 1962 Syndrome similar to Stockholm Syndrome.
People asked me, why only IFS?
I recently read Shyam Saran's memoir "How India sees the World" especially Chapter 13 on "Understanding China" and its full of defeatist advice to GOI thankfully not taken. He has no faith in the Indian military!
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

RAND study on Imposing costs on Russia
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html

Now try to see what India did to impose costs on China after Galwan.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Taking long view India has to adopt bastion defence along LAC and a strong Naval presence in Bay of Bengal and Southern Indian Ocean to check PLAN.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by VKumar »

There are reports on the internet that Xi Jinping has been deposed by a military coup and is under house arrest. The CCP top brass have engineered this, however there is no official confirmation. There are news that a 80Km long convoy of military vehicles is proceeding onto Beijing.
https://hwnews.in/news/international/ch ... -takeover/
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by rsingh »

Play God that it is true.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

vkumar we should put this in the other thread. India had nothing to do with this 'coup'.

rsingh hope there is no loss of life.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by gakakkad »

rsingh wrote:Play God that it is true.
Otoh ,I hope it's not. 11 is like pappu in many ways . Incompetent to the core , with zero covid broke the back of panda economy and isolated themselves in the world . Shot himself and prc on the foot many times with sabre rattling around Taiwan . In fact exposed there lack of military competence in the mock drills around Taiwan during pelosi visit . May his stupidity 11 rule plc folevel
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Aditya_V »

Keeping my fingers crossed what is the news from China
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by kit »

gakakkad wrote:
rsingh wrote:Play God that it is true.
Otoh ,I hope it's not. 11 is like pappu in many ways . Incompetent to the core , with zero covid broke the back of panda economy and isolated themselves in the world . Shot himself and prc on the foot many times with sabre rattling around Taiwan . In fact exposed there lack of military competence in the mock drills around Taiwan during pelosi visit . May his stupidity 11 rule plc folevel
So to paraphrase Rumsfield., a known unknown is better than an unknown unknown :mrgreen:
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Cyrano »

ramana wrote:RAND study on Imposing costs on Russia
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html

Now try to see what India did to impose costs on China after Galwan.
Ramana garu, there might very well be a study by Rand or some other stink tank on "Containing India's rise" or "How to prevent the rising Indian elephant from becoming another threat like the Chinese Dragon" etc.

The systematic funding of international NGOs, anti-India, anti-hindu research in univs, democracy, freedom of religion ratings, indirect support to PFI type organizations, evangelist mafia etc might all be part of a deliberate and concerted effort at slow boiling.

Recent GoI actions at home indicate that they may have uncovered some very serious stuff with far reaching consequences and prompted the govt to act strongly.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by rsingh »

kit wrote:
gakakkad wrote:
Otoh ,I hope it's not. 11 is like pappu in many ways . Incompetent to the core , with zero covid broke the back of panda economy and isolated themselves in the world . Shot himself and prc on the foot many times with sabre rattling around Taiwan . In fact exposed there lack of military competence in the mock drills around Taiwan during pelosi visit . May his stupidity 11 rule plc folevel
So to paraphrase Rumsfield., a known unknown is better than an unknown unknown :mrgreen:
Well said. Good old Rumsfield. I like his clothing sense. That is how I like to dress.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by kit »

Things are back to "normal" in old China. Curious as to who spread all the rumours about "coup".. the company maybe
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by rsingh »

How normaal? Mr Eleven is still out of public view and what about 80 km convoy munching on frog legs in Beinjing ? Hein ji.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

rsingh wrote:How normaal? Mr Eleven is still out of public view . . .
The below is what I posted in another discussion.
Having formulated tough Covid rules putting millions & millions of Chinese for two years to untold miseries which are still continuing, XJP can’t be seen to be violating them himself.

Besides, when Wuhan outbreak occurred in 2020, XJP disappeared from the scene for several weeks leaving Li Keqiang to handle the situation.

I think he has been extra, extra careful because of his age and he wants to be alive & capable to finish the dreams he has sold to his people.

He is quarantining and taking rest ahead of the 20th Congress, following the Chinese laws strictly on Covid.

October 16th onwards would be extremely important for XJP, probably the most crucial few days of his life.

Someone had written recently how even a trip from HongKong to Mainland China requires 14 days of quarantine and multiple swab tests everyday.
Can't say much about any 80 Km long convoy. The rumour seems to have originated in India. Someone thought that if China can make fake videos about Galwan or spread false news, we can also do so.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

SS Have you thought about what the reports of frequent changes of Western Theater commander in past two years does to PLA and anti XJP faction morale?
Would like a informed reply.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

That someone is Ananthakrishnan of Hindu.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by jrjrao »

Two interesting reads:

The Belt and Road Initiative Runs into Trouble
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/t ... o-trouble/

More Business Shifts from China to India as the Rift between the Countries Widens
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/m ... ies-widens
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Incorrect headline.
It's not the rift that is fueling the shift but improved business climate in India.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

How have you been Jr^2?
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by jrjrao »

Thanks for the ping, Ramana! This brings back the great ol' vibes from so many years ago.

All is good here, thankfully. Lurking here, as always, and am so much appreciative of all the folks who keep this forum on the cutting edge just like it was back then, all those 15 and 20 years ago.

And now, unless I have a quick and virtual happy hour with KGoan, JEM, N^3, Shiv, and others, on the topic of the "lovely" Jalebi Madam, I promise that I will go on a hunger strike and will not come up for air, no matter how pink and doomed I get!! :)
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Cyrano »

Good to see you chirping and well jrjrao garu. Please post as often as you can.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by rsingh »

Jrjrao , nice to hear from you. Welcome back.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Cyrano »

Along with Eur, GBP Yuan also falls steeply:

China’s yuan sinks to record low against the dollar
The offshore yuan, which is traded outside mainland China, fell to 7.2386 against the dollar on Wednesday, the Bloomberg news agency reported, the lowest since Beijing eased rules on trading the currency in Hong Kong in 2010.

The onshore yuan, which is circulated in mainland China and more tightly controlled than its offshore counterpart, fell to a low of 7.2302 per dollar in early trade, the weakest since the global financial crisis in 2008.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/ ... the-dollar
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Dilbu »

China Opens Illegal Police Stations Across Globe: Report
Beijing: In a quest to emerge as a global superpower, the Chinese government has opened numerous illegal police stations across the world including in developed countries like Canada and Ireland, triggering concerns among human rights campaigners. Such informal police service stations affiliated with the Public Security Bureau (PSB) across Canada have been set up to antagonize China's adversaries, Investigative Journalism Reportika stated citing the local media.

According to local media reports, Fuzhou has established informal police service stations affiliated with the Public Security Bureau (PSB) across Canada. At least three of these stations are located in the Greater Toronto Area only.
Moreover, the Chinese government is also influencing the elections in certain countries through these illegal police stations, according to Investigative Journalism Reportika. The Fuzhou police say it has already opened 30 such stations in 21 countries. Countries like Ukraine, France, Spain, Germany, and the UK have such arrangements for Chinese Police Stations and the leaders of most of these countries question the rise of China and its worsening human rights records on public platforms and are themselves a part of that issue.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022 ... he-xi-era/
How Global Public Opinion of China Has Shifted in the Xi Era
BY LAURA SILVER, CHRISTINE HUANG AND LAURA CLANCY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

Overview
Multiple factors have affected views of China over time. In the U.S., the sense that China has handled COVID-19 poorly and is at fault for the virus’s spread certainly is related to negative opinions of the superpower, but is not the only factor driving attitudes. Rather, negative views of China were already rising prior to the pandemic. The same is true in other countries, including some of China’s neighbors, like South Korea, Japan and Australia.
Unfavorable views of China in South Korea have increased dramatically since 2017. South Korea was heavily affected by Chinese economic retribution following the country’s 2017 decision to install an American missile interceptor (THAAD). Negative views of China went up substantially in 2017 alongside this turmoil; they increased again in 2020 when, in the wake of COVID-19, unfavorable opinion went up in nearly every country Pew Research Center surveyed. But views have continued to sour, and today unfavorable views of China are at a historic high of 80%.
Japanese views of China have been broadly negative for the past decade. Negative views of China skyrocketed in the early 2000s amid myriad bilateral tensions, and for the past 20 years, Japanese views of China have always been among the most negative in Center surveys, if not the most negative. Negative views peaked at 93% in 2013, following extreme tension in the East China Sea. Very unfavorable views of China have also been particularly elevated since 2020, with around half of Japanese adults saying this describes their views of China.
......
Gautam
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Cyrano wrote:Along with Eur, GBP Yuan also falls steeply:

China’s yuan sinks to record low against the dollar
The offshore yuan, which is traded outside mainland China, fell to 7.2386 against the dollar on Wednesday, the Bloomberg news agency reported, the lowest since Beijing eased rules on trading the currency in Hong Kong in 2010.

The onshore yuan, which is circulated in mainland China and more tightly controlled than its offshore counterpart, fell to a low of 7.2302 per dollar in early trade, the weakest since the global financial crisis in 2008.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/ ... the-dollar
This makes the US imports of Chinese goods even more attractive.
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