Covid19 in China

[Amber G.]

^^^ Not surprising but still there is lot of black-out of news and China is not sharing its data... outside the big cities we (out side scientists) have even less data.
Few tidbits -
- From Indian newspaper - just reprinting here .. (Not sure how accurate (or inaccurate is this)


- Read a little about CoronaVac 's data, -- main problem (IMO) is that very few 60+ people have boosters (especially fourth one - but even the third one) .. Many young people have multiple shots but elders have 2 or 3 only.. as said before this is quite ineffective against this variant... 4th booster or Nasal vaccines - even if they go full speed ahead - will take months and the death toll will be very high in coming months.

****
Meanwhile, PER Indian News Papers, Indian administration thoughts are consistent with what I have posted here (and SUTRA's interpretation) about good immunity in India (no need to panic).. and advocacy for boosters.

-- No Lockdown for India; Indians have stronger immune system ..per IMA’s Dr Anil Goyal

HomeIndia News'Get Your Booster Shot At Earliest': Top Indian Doctors' Body's Warning
'Get Your Booster Shot At Earliest': Top Indian Doctors' Body's Warning

- Cowin app is supporting (or will soon support) BB's Nasal vaccine as a booster.

There are some fake items/WhatsApp messages going viral in India - so please be careful in trusting all the news..



--- For USA - we are going to see numbers/hospitalizations going up (Unlike India). There was a recent data (Sept-December 2022) about the effectiveness of boosters - the results -especially about serious illness/hospitalization/death in all age groups (but even more important for seniors) are *extremely* good (better than I feared). ( BF.7 results, I don't think will be much different). So it is important to get a booster (Bivalent and preferably of different mRNA than the primary one - but any kind which is easy to get). Natural/hybrid immunity in USA population at present (per SUTRA model) is ~ 80% (compared to about 98% for India) so it is *very* important to get those boosters, IMO.

[Amber G.]

There have been *several* posts here regarding BF.7 - and seeing the devastation it produced in China - lot of concerns.
Naturally there is lot of fear/panic outside China too.-- People are validly scared ..

AmberG
<snip>
So in this round, BF.7 which is a further mutation of Omicron is spreading as to be expected.
- Chinese vaccines being ineffective is irrelevant as even mRNA vaccines are also ineffective.
- Means if this BF-7 lands in US it will spread quite fast.

What am I missing?

Let me put things in perspective. ( what I am saying here is consistent with other reputable scientists, I respect) - Hope this is helpful
- In India's case:
1 - BF.7 has been in India since July 2022 (Even before China). For SUTRA modeling we have good data and expertise in modeling.
2 - Unlike China, India has extremely reliable serosurvey - needed for SUTRA modeling. So confidence in immunity against this variant is not some wild 'guess' but involve a *good* amount of confidence.
3 - The hybrid immunity ( vaccine+ natural) among population, at present is >98% . (Again SUTRA is quite reliable - especially we have few months data)
So when these scientists are advising GoI etc about 'No need to panic' they are putting their reputation behind that kind of statement.

Yes, as said, immunity wanes with time - in months ahead we may see some ripples but a big wave is *highly* unlikely.

India has to keep eye on the situation diligently but unlikely to see massive lockdowns etc. Meanwhile we all can do out bit about masking in crowded area - get required vaccines / boosters and protect elderly from unnecessary risky exposure.

----

IN USA's case, as we have said,The things are little more dicey. BF.7 was here since August. The hybrid immunity (again calculated per SUTRA model) is around 80% not good enough to prevent high numbers. Boosters and Masks in crowded areas will help.

(India is extremely generous, sharing it's expertise in modeling (SUTRA) and extremely useful data about current immunity for various countries. Model is very reliable if it has, a (even a few old) good serosurvey.

[sanjaykumar]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politic ... own-making


Morgues overwhelmed: why China’s new Covid crisis is all of its own making

The government also messed up its vaccination strategy from the outset. When China first started to roll out vaccines, the National Health Commission strongly recommended that only those people aged between 18 and 59 should get jabbed. That gave the impression that the vaccines were not suitable for people over 60, particularly those with underlying medical conditions. Its main rationale appeared to be that those aged 18 to 59 would have to work and needed protection against the virus while the elderly mostly stayed home.
The NHC’s advice ran counter to the prevailing practice in most countries, where priority was given to the elderly and other vulnerable groups. This has subsequently made it very difficult for the authorities to encourage older people to get vaccinated.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politic ... -hospitals

Amid China’s coronavirus crisis, Beijing draws doctors and staff from provinces to ease overwhelmed hospitals

However, the witness said, there were no oxygen beds available and the nurse asked patients whether they really wanted to stay at the hospital, ...

[Amber G.]

Allow me to share one nicely written thread - consistent with most points I was sharing it - it is little long but very well written. Please share.
(I will xpost this in the other thread too)

- Linkk: https://twitter.com/GKangInd/status/160 ... lf5kdlDhVg

So many calls about China, about what that means for India, about XBB, about 3rd waves, about new mandates, about travel bans, about vaccine boosters- thought best to get views out to summarise the current situation. Long thread, be warne...

As said is long and well-argued thread. Please read it in full.

No 11 - What does this mean for the rest of the world? New variants? Why not travel bans? What should we be doing?
No 13 - In India as well, we already have XBB and BF.7 (the 2 being hyped as new monsters). They are, like all Omicron subvariants, very good at infecting people because they escape the immune response that prevents infection, but are not causing more severe disease than delta.
No 20 - At the moment, India is doing fine. We have few cases, we have had the XBB & BF.7 for a while and they have not driven an upsurge in India. In the absence of an even more highly infectious variant, I do not expect a surge. 20/n
ut will we be able to detect a new variant or a surge? We have ample sequencing capacity & if sequencing is done in real-time, absolutely we can. When hospitals begin to see severe cases, we will know. Need to & can understand & measure both the virus & the disease..

--Booster doses on any platform are likely to have an incremental benefit in anyone, at least for a while. Among vaccines in India, all vaccines fine, but order based on immune response will be protein, adenovirus vectored, inactivated. 23/n

- Two doses of any vaccine protect against severe disease/deaths. We have no data from India that any Indian vaccine has a reduction in effectiveness over time, but from the rest of the world, the value of a booster in the elderly population is clear. [ SUTRA data, IMO gives definite evidence that Indian vaccines too looses immunity over time.. we do have some good data to support that ]
So if you have an elderly person in your family, please get them an additional dose, as a precautionary measure even without any Indian data. May help, unlikely to harm. 25/n

At present mask mandate for India is *not* necessary. (Situation may change - SUTRA team is keeping a close eye for community spread) - But again a comfortable mask especially in crowded indoor area is what I practice .. and recommend it especially if you have elderly or children at home ).

[ramana]

Err who is this SUTRA team that is beyond government?
As for Gagandeep Kang, she was so pro Pfizer more so than Pfizer themselves.

[Cain Marko]

AmberG

-- It is clear that the reach (rho parameter in SUTRA) was very low before the arrival of Omicron. 1) When a fast spreading mutant-like Omicron entered the population, 2) there was a large population available to infect, 3) which resulted in a large-scale increase of daily infections, 4) which in turn caused the Chinese authorities to resort to a very stringent lockdown.

. This suggests that the pandemic is nowhere close to being over in China. ( There was a large drop ( in May or so)t but the numbers
are likely to rise again. A difficult time lies ahead for the country.

- 5) The new variant (BF.7) is *much* more infective -- (Some estimates of R factor close to 15) -- 6) immunity from the previous infection is very low and 7) anyway reach is still quite low (this means a large part of the population is still unexposed, and thus susceptible ) --8)and their vaccines are nearly ineffective.

So in this round, BF.7 which is a further mutation of Omicron is spreading as to be expected.
- Chinese vaccines being ineffective is irrelevant as even mRNA vaccines are also ineffective.
- Means if this BF-7 lands in US it will spread quite fast.

Ramanaji, from an article posted above, b7 is not spreading much in the US. It's assumed that the vaccines work quite well and course didn't build up herd immunity.

[Cain Marko]

There have been *several* posts here regarding BF.7 - and seeing the devastation it produced in China - lot of concerns.
Naturally there is lot of fear/panic outside China too.-- People are validly scared ..

AmberG
<snip>
So in this round, BF.7 which is a further mutation of Omicron is spreading as to be expected.
- Chinese vaccines being ineffective is irrelevant as even mRNA vaccines are also ineffective.
- Means if this BF-7 lands in US it will spread quite fast.

What am I missing?

Let me put things in perspective. ( what I am saying here is consistent with other reputable scientists, I respect) - Hope this is helpful
- In India's case:
1 - BF.7 has been in India since July 2022 (Even before China). For SUTRA modeling we have good data and expertise in modeling.
2 - Unlike China, India has extremely reliable serosurvey - needed for SUTRA modeling. So confidence in immunity against this variant is not some wild 'guess' but involve a *good* amount of confidence.
3 - The hybrid immunity ( vaccine+ natural) among population, at present is >98% . (Again SUTRA is quite reliable - especially we have few months data)
So when these scientists are advising GoI etc about 'No need to panic' they are putting their reputation behind that kind of statement.

Yes, as said, immunity wanes with time - in months ahead we may see some ripples but a big wave is *highly* unlikely.

India has to keep eye on the situation diligently but unlikely to see massive lockdowns etc. Meanwhile we all can do out bit about masking in crowded area - get required vaccines / boosters and protect elderly from unnecessary risky exposure.

----

IN USA's case, as we have said,The things are little more dicey. BF.7 was here since August. The hybrid immunity (again calculated per SUTRA model) is around 80% not good enough to prevent high numbers. Boosters and Masks in crowded areas will help.

(India is extremely generous, sharing it's expertise in modeling (SUTRA) and extremely useful data about current immunity for various countries. Model is very reliable if it has, a (even a few old) good serosurvey.

Amber ji. Just want to thank you for all your valuable posts and information you have continuously shared with us. Much much appreciated.

[Amber G.]

Err who is this SUTRA team that is beyond government?

Blame BRF for that which kindled this SUTRA about 2 years ago
This is a post from 18 months ago - May 9, 2021

Meanwhile - some 7 months ago .. some one posted this in Brf:

Amber G ji, maybe you could suggest to Dr. Vidyasagar et al, that the bijaganita (tr.: algebraic; literally: "seed mathematics") terms in that supermodel could use Sanskrit aksharas instead of Greek letters. There's more than enough letters in Indian languages, and after all, the concept of bijaganita did originate in India.

The Model is now called SUTRA . I do like the name! .

Seriously - ^^^ SUTRA is the famous mathematical model - (Acronym model Susceptible, Undetected, Tested, recovered approach) discussed *many* times in brf... (Please do a search - I have discussed it and explained the main mathermatical points here in brf over the years)
see https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.09158
(People/authors: Manindra Agrawal, Madhuri Kanitkar, Deepu Phillip, Tanima Hajra, Arti Singh, Avaneesh Singh, Prabal Pratap Singh, Mathukumalli Vidyasagar)
They are not government officials but do advise GoI (All their work is in Public domain - team consists of some extremely renowned professionals. --
(Modi's government recruited some world famous professors to lead the modeling team).

(Some in the team are leaders in medicine, virology but there are a few mathematicians/Physicists/Engineers too

- I know prof Vidyasagar for many decades , son of *very* famous mathematician (IIT - worked in DRDO, FRS, good scholar of Telugu, Sanskrit ityadi - Did his PhD from University of Wisconsin - (around the same time when Har Gobind Khorana (Nobel Prize for genetic code of the cell and control the cell's synthesis of proteins worked there)

- Prof M. Agrawal (IITKanpur) is renowned mathematician (Primes in P fame) .(see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AKS_primality_test).. He also leads
ICSRS ( CII & IITK's Risk Surveillance Center with expertises in modeling the spread of pandemics and similar systems, leading to development of strategies in managing them)

Gagandeep Kang's tweet was retweeted by Prof Vidyasagar which I shared in Brf.

[Amber G.]

Ramanaji, from an article posted above, b7 is not spreading much in the US. It's assumed that the vaccines work quite well and course didn't build up herd immunity.

B.7 has been in USA since August .. It is *not* the dominant ..the concern in the present is XBB.1.5 variant..

(there’s a swarm of new subvariants. One of these is XBB, which is a recombinant (fusion) of 2 different BA.2 variants, BJ.1 (BA.2.10.1.1) and BA.2.75 (BA.2.75.3.1.1.1), depicted below by both the tree and mutation map.,,)


A good summary:

A new variant alert

--Highest Covid hospitalizations in New York ..d soaring in seniors, as the XBB variant with added mutations gains growth advantage..
Peak may soon surpass earlier peaks.. (One reason I am asking all my family members in USA in general to get the BiValent booster to protect from serious illness )

[Amber G.]

For Technical details about SUTRA .. check this out:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.09158
The article was last updated on 25 October 2022.

---

While applying the model to a region, two parameters of the model can be learnt from the number of daily new cases found in the region. Using the learnt values of the parameters the model can predict the number of daily new cases so long as the learnt parameters do not change substantially. Whenever any of the two parameters changes due to the key property (ii) above, the SUTRA model can detect that the values of one or both of the parameters have changed. Further, the model has the capability to relearn the changed parameter values, and then use these to carry out the prediction of the trajectory of the pandemic for the region of concern. The SUTRA approach can be applied at various levels of granularity, from an entire country to a district, more specifically, to any large enough region for which the data of daily new cases are available.
We have applied the SUTRA model to thirty-two countries, covering more than half of the world's population. Our conclusions are: (i) The model is able to capture the past trajectories very well. Moreover, the parameter values, which we can estimate robustly, help quantify the impact of changes in the pandemic characteristics. (ii) Unless the pandemic characteristics change significantly, the model has good predictive capability. (iii) Natural immunity provides significantly better protection against infection than the currently available vaccines. [ This does NOT mean current vaccines are useless - they are quite effective to prevent serious illness/hospitalization/deaths - it just means current vaccines are not able to prevent community spread when new variants arrive- AmberG Notes]

----
As said before, In India - Phase looks very stable (BF.7 variant has been in India since July so prediction is quite reliable - BF,7 is not the dominant thread ) and no (or very little) cause of concern.. (unless it mutates to something which avoids immunity in a significant way -- this is why there is sharp eye on new variants..).
Everyone is watching China's number(s) though data is lacking...

Major concern is Japan, Korea etc..(So these numbers are being fed into model - we have good data from there so this may add to our leanings..)... little less but still quite concerning is USA. Brazil does have a higher immunity so the peak there is not going to be major.

[ramana]

Thanks. Forgot about M Vidyasagar.
Yes we follow each other.

[vimal]

Mods please close this thread.
There is no Covid or Covid related deaths in China as per their emperor Xi.
All is well!

[Anujan]

Apparently post office in china where everyone is sick and there is package pileup

[vimal]

[komal]

Mods please close this thread.
There is no Covid or Covid related deaths in China as per their emperor Xi.
All is well!

Post of the year!!!

[sanjaykumar]

I have not been able to source even one report, written, pictorial or video from the Chinese hinterland.

Are international reports on such a short leash in China?

Does the BBC or CNN provide a disclaimer on their reportage, so the viewer can assess their credibility? Or are the money and girls too easy in China for such integrity?

[chetak]

[RaviB]

I have not been able to source even one report, written, pictorial or video from the Chinese hinterland.

Are international reports on such a short leash in China?

Does the BBC or CNN provide a disclaimer on their reportage, so the viewer can assess their credibility? Or are the money and girls too easy in China for such integrity?

Jennifer Zeng has lots of current videos and reporting from inside China on Twitter. In her videos you also see explicit orders hanging in funeral homes of not speaking about the number of dead, or Covid to anyone. People have to sign forms saying their family member did not die of Covid to be permitted to cremate. There was a recent video showing 60+ coffins in a small town crematorium and only one guy to take care of the burning. This was one week after the national death toll according to official figures was 5 per day, now they've stopped reporting. There is also a Telegram channel called The Underground Silk Railroad (iirc) which often has inside reporting.

https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97

Foreign reporters are of course under active surveillance and blocked from reporting (not that they are trying too hard). One BBC reporter was beaten up by ministry of internal security staff some time back, so no wonder they are all lying low. There was a recent report on the lockdown (in German) on Arte, maybe because they are not watched as closely. You can watch it with subs.

[Amber G.]

Some Reliable updates ( not officially confirmed but from Chinese sources) -- and calibrating the SUTRA graphs:

- New cases per day are as high as 34,000,000 per day.

- First 20 days of December, China had ~ 250 million infections. The SUTRA's best estimation from March data (see previous post) gives about 500 Million infections for the same period.

- To bring this number down to ~250 Million actual to detected ratio and fitting the data with the SUTRA model - it seems less than 30% population immune at present. This makes situation worse for China as another 50%+ need to be infected before normalization returns!

Tough days ahead.

[sanjaykumar]

Thanks ravib, that is a valuable resource into what the western media never shows. It looks like the Chinese have put enormous resources into a dozen cities with very impressive infrastructure. Things are different elsewhere.

[Amber G.]

Xpost : t I think it is important...

While BF.7 is dominating the news - For US I think it is extremely important (CDC ought to alert) for US to watch XBB 1.5 variant -
This has already established dominance throughout the Northeast—and, with its big growth advantage over BQ.1.1, soon country-wide.

The hybrid immunity at 80% (per Sutra) we in US ought to be very concerned.

(Waste water analysis is also consistent with this). (Wave will/is starting in North- East but it will spread to the whole country)>

Massachusetts age 70+ hospital up but not as much as NY.(is it a lag or a better outcome due to vaccinations)

--Bivalent booster rate in MA among 65+ is much higher MA 56 % - NY 36%)

Please stay safe!

[vera_k]

Well, each one for themselves in the USA. Not sure what has gone amiss, but the CDC and politicians do not have their eye on the ball wrt travel restrictions. Wonder if there was some quid pro quo with China.

[Vayutuvan]

Well, each one for themselves in the USA. Not sure what has gone amiss, but the CDC and politicians do not have their eye on the ball wrt travel restrictions.

That is racist!!! (as per current admin's campaign narrative)

[vijayk]

https://michaelpsenger.substack.com/p/t ... -as-bad-as

[RaviB]

Guess where the Chinese are getting anti-Covid drugs from

Chinese turn to black market for generic Indian Covid-19 drugs as surge sweeps nation

• Limited supply and steep price of the two approved Covid-19 antivirals driving many Chinese to opt for cheaper but illegal imports from India
  
  Indian generics have not been approved by the Chinese government and selling them is a punishable offence

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... eps-nation

[Amber G.]

I have posted a view of COVID19 variants in India, till 26-Dec-2022 (Per latest updte by INSACOG): in the the other dhaga <here>.

Majority of the lineage now present is XBB since Oct 2022, prior to that it was BA2.75 (Note that the main variant active in China (BF7) has been in India since July at least. It has not shown any cause for concern in India.-- virtually little impact.

[IndraD]

Useful information Amber thanks!

[Amber G.]

BREAKING: Number of Americans hospitalized with COVID-19 rises to 45,279, the highest since February
(Per Models XBB.1.5 will NOT approach the levels of hospitalizations & deaths in the US as Omicron wave in the US -- but it will be highest since then)
Important part is restrictions on Chinese travel will do little - The danger here is XBB 1.5 variant which has already spread.. and going to spread in other parts of US)

(I have posted US related info in the other thread in little more details)

[SRajesh]

In our Hospital we call it Flu admission and Flu bay
Even in HDU there's a Flu bay
People get tested but no fuss made of COVID
Dont know what is happening elsewhere in UK
Whole of Merseyside bed situation very bad with 'FLU' admissions!

[vimal]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... less-study

Coronavirus: Omicron BA.5 subvariant may cause more damage – not less: study

The coronavirus subvariant surging in China may be evolving to attack the brain, researchers say
The study challenges previous assumptions that viruses usually evolve to become less dangerous

[Vayutuvan]

Important part is restrictions on Chinese travel will do little - The danger here is XBB 1.5 variant which has already spread.. and going to spread in other parts of US)

Is BA.5 variant already here in the US?

[Cain Marko]

Important part is restrictions on Chinese travel will do little - The danger here is XBB 1.5 variant which has already spread.. and going to spread in other parts of US)

Is BA.5 variant already here in the US?

isn't xbb a sub variant of ba.5
I guess not. This is another mutation... Can't keep up with this. Here is what Amber G has said:

B.7 has been in USA since August .. It is *not* the dominant ..the concern in the present is XBB.1.5 variant..

(there’s a swarm of new subvariants. One of these is XBB, which is a recombinant (fusion) of 2 different BA.2 variants, BJ.1 (BA.2.10.1.1) and BA.2.75 (BA.2.75.3.1.1.1), depicted below by both the tree and mutation map.,,)


A good summary:

A new variant alert

--Highest Covid hospitalizations in New York ..d soaring in seniors, as the XBB variant with added mutations gains growth advantage..
Peak may soon surpass earlier peaks.. (One reason I am asking all my family members in USA in general to get the BiValent booster to protect from serious illness )

[sanjaykumar]

Evolutionary theory posits that viral strains that propagate more widely/frequently will out compete lethal strains.

In fact brain targeting is employed very likely by the Toxoplasmosis protozoan to complete the life cycle in cats at the cost of the mouse carrier. Tentative reports are that it may influence human behaviour, specifically entrepreneurship. Indeed!
Thus a quiet virus that causes disinhibition may be able to increase the R0.

Of course this is teleological reasoning like much of evolutionary biology as applied to humans.

[Amber G.]

Vayutuvan - Yes, difficult to follow Omicron family of SARS-CoV-2 descendants in recent months as there’s a swarm of new subvariants.. but it is important to keep an eye on them. One of these is XBB, which is a recombinant (fusion) of 2 different BA.2 variants, BJ.1 (BA.2.10.1.1) and BA.2.75 (BA.2.75.3.1.1.1), depicted below by both the tree and mutation map...


For US .. most prominent is XBB1.5 ... real cause of concern and is going to be big news (CDC is now waking up and is issuing alert) in coming weeks. (Still, XBB.1.5 — — is being blamed for what is a "steep rise" in pandemic hospitalizations in New York State, and spreading *fast*.. Truly the latest 'super' variant.

It is: originated in USA
One of the *most* transmissive.
most Immune escape (vaccine immunity escape) variant
The key double advantage — XBB15 has much higher immunity escape and higher human cell ACE2 binding that bestows higher cell infectivity...
( the super variant XBB15 stands out by leaps and bounds on the R(t) transmission reproductive number... Notice how XBB doesn’t even come close either. ... Many are worried justifiably.



(Notice that, XBB15 is *much* more transmissive than Chinese BF.7 --- (This is why many of us think that travel restrictions from China etc are not of much value.. (In USA BF7 has been here since August and is totally overtaken by XBB1.5)..)

[Ashokk]

Beijing threatens to respond against virus measures

BEIJING: Beijing is blasting testing requirements on passengers from China and threatening countermeasures against countries involved based on reciprocity.
“We believe that the entry restrictions adopted by some countries targeting China lack scientific basis, and some excessive practices are even more unacceptable," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at a daily briefing Tuesday.
“We are firmly opposed to attempts to manipulate the COVID measures for political purposes and will take countermeasures based on the principle of reciprocity.”

[Ashokk]

China state media plays down severity of Covid wave before WHO meeting

China reported three new Covid deaths for Monday, up from one for Sunday. Its official death toll since the pandemic began now stands at 5,253.
In an article on Tuesday, People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party, cited several Chinese experts as saying the illness caused by the virus was relatively mild for most people.
"Severe and critical illnesses account for 3% to 4% of infected patients currently admitted to designated hospitals in Beijing," Tong Zhaohui, Vice President of Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, told the newspaper.
Kang Yan, head of West China Tianfu Hospital of Sichuan University, said that in the past three weeks, a total of 46 critically ill patients have been admitted to intensive care units, accounting for about 1% of symptomatic infections.
More than 80% of those living in the southwestern Sichuan province have been infected, local health authorities said.

[Amber G.]

^^^Meanwhile:
- Beijing blasts testing requirements on passengers from China, threatens countermeasures based on 'reciprocity.'

"

Some countries have taken entry restrictions targeting only Chinese travellers. This lacks scientific basis and some practices are unacceptable," foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a regular briefing, warning China could "take counter measures based on the principle of reciprocity".

(To be honest - there is a kind of support for this in US from some scientists -- pointing out much more concerning is NY (XBB1.5) variant and more should be done than just travel restrictions from China etc..)

- And of course, National Institute of Health (NIH) Islamabad and Aga Khan University (AKU).. says the strain from China is now confirmed in Pakistan, .... "Once, we have this variant on our soil, we would see a surge like we saw when the original Omicron variant started infecting people in Pakistan. There was a sharp rise in the Covid-19 cases, which is not happening at the moment," says Khan ..

- Warning about XBB1.5 now is headline news in mainstream media like CNN. FOX and in UK.. eg..
Doctors warn new Covid variant XBB1.5 is spreading in the UK and should be 'wake up call'


Omicron offshoot XBB.1.5 could drive new Covid-19 surge in US

- FWIW the effective Rt value, from what I see from data is about 50 % more than *any* other variant.(see graph I posted above) . so it is quite infectious. (fortunately vaccine - especially a bivalent booster, is quite effective for serious illness/hospitalization').

[sudarshan]

It's so ironic that it's the Omicron variant rampaging China. It was of course made way worse by the policies of CPC president Xi, who favored political and face-saving considerations over practicality and citizen welfare.

Starting from Alpha, the variants were named after letters of the Greek alphabet. Then the WHO skipped one letter, going from Nu directly to Omicron. The letter which was skipped was Xi, which has the same name as the CPC president Xi (which is the whole reason why it was skipped).

So technically, it is the Xi variant rampaging China, exacerbated by CPC president Xi. We should be really calling it "Xi" to highlight the roles of both the CPC president, and the WHO.

EDIT: Thanks Cyrano garu. Everything is fine, just that posting on BRF is rather detrimental to other projects, so I'm on lurk mode.

[Varoon Shekhar]

Amber: Where did the BF7 originate?

[Cyrano]

Good to see you post Sudarshan garu. Hope all is ok