Covid19 in China

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SRajesh
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by SRajesh »

Amber G. wrote:^^^Meanwhile:
- Beijing blasts testing requirements on passengers from China, threatens countermeasures based on 'reciprocity.'

"
.
- And of course, National Institute of Health (NIH) Islamabad and Aga Khan University (AKU).. says the strain from China is now confirmed in Pakistan, .... "Once, we have this variant on our soil, we would see a surge like we saw when the original Omicron variant started infecting people in Pakistan. There was a sharp rise in the Covid-19 cases, which is not happening at the moment," says Khan ..

[/url]


[url.
Totally agree with that
SHQ's close friend came back from Paxatan
Initially Son and then mother came down with Temps +40C and had to be hospitalised.
initially both tested negative later mother positive
total hospital stay of more than a week. Mother still weak and not fully recovered
Amber G.
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by Amber G. »

Varoon Shekhar wrote:Amber: Where did the BF7 originate?
The BF.7 (Omicron sub-variant's full name is BA.5.2.1.7) - from what I know (and fairly well known) has been in USA (also in UK, Europe eg Denmark etc) and India - earliest at least July in India (and August in USA) but it''s effect was not as serious as China - because China's zero covid policy made a large population susceptible, and vaccine produce immunity was almost useless there against this variant. If you look at the graphs I posted here - in US (and India) it remained around 6% of the total .

Since, for Sutra graphs, 2-3 months give enough time to see if there is a drastic change in phases, so per Sutra India does not have a concern like China against this variant. (Roughly speaking - we would have seen the rise in numbers by now).

XBB1.5 is a real cause of concern - more than anything I can think of in last year or so - the numbers in USA are really rising etc..
(per one source (there are many news paper articles in the past) - BF.7 has been reported in Bangladesh, Belgium, China, Denmark, Norway, France, Germany, India, Mongolia, Philippines, United Kingdom and United States,Algeria, Cape Verde, Cameroon, Gambia, Guinea, Mauritius, Morocco, Senegal and South Africa)
Vayutuvan
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by Vayutuvan »

Amber G. wrote:For US .. most prominent is XBB1.5 ... real cause of concern and is going to be big news (CDC is now waking up and is issuing alert) in coming weeks. (Still, XBB.1.5 — — is being blamed for what is a "steep rise" in pandemic hospitalizations in New York State, and spreading *fast*.. Truly the latest 'super' variant.
Amber G ji, you mentioned XBB 1.5 and XBB.1.5 above. Are they different or it is just a typo/convenience for the same? XBB15 is also the same I suppose. NVM.

A question on the visual. The edges are weighted, i.e. edge length means how far it is from say WA1? Also why is the tree lay out the way it is? Is it an artifact of the graph layout algorithm? Does the orientation have some meaning? For example, Alpha and Gamma are 30 degrees apart (just eyeballing) vs. Gamma and Beta are 270 degrees apart. But all of them are almost the same distance from WA1. Also, the tree is also color coded. What do those colors mean? Colors depict time or the number of cases?
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 05 Jan 2023 04:36, edited 1 time in total.
Vayutuvan
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by Vayutuvan »

Amber G. wrote:(snipped two charts etc.)
Another thing caught my eye. The second graphic says Pango lineages. Pango stands for Pangolin? I thought that theory was debunked.
Amber G.
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ For a good summary about XBB15 a article below: (I posted the link before - many of my diagrams/graphs/charts are from this article- There are good references but IMO many of the standard sources (like CDC data) have become a little hard to use and there is quite a bit of noise)

Anyway.. this article gives a more details about some of the items I was talking about in a concise form... hope this is useful.
A new variant alert
The XBB.1.5 variant is on a growth spurt in the United States
sanjaykumar
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by sanjaykumar »



Paxlovid cost now USD7,000 in China
RaviB
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by RaviB »

Apparently the National Health Commission released figures on the 7th: 120,000 confirmed cases and 30 deaths. This has caused a lot of outrage.

Meanwhile, if family members want to have a death certificate, they are required to hand a letter of commitment, which reads: "I promise: the deceased xxx did not die from the Covid, and if there is any concealment, I am willing to bear all responsibilities."

One Chinese blogger calls this a triple humiliation and describes this so: "These are the three insults. This is tantamount to first stipulating that lying must be severely punished, then forcing you to eat sh*t, and then making you promise that what you ate just now was not sh*t, and that you ate it voluntarily".

https://news.creaders.net/china/2023/01/08/2565052.html
sanjaykumar
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by sanjaykumar »

VinodTK
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by VinodTK »



Obituaries are everywhere as Chinese people cremate relatives in the streets

Karma is such a ****h
Amber G.
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by Amber G. »

Just few data points on how SUTRA could be an useful tool even when data is fuzzy...
This was posted three weeks ago!
Amber G. wrote:Some analysis per SUTRA model - (With good amount of confidence)

<snip>

- The percentage of naturally immune (immunity acquired via previous infection) population in China was less than 5% in October-end and less than 20% in November-end.

- At present, less than 60% of population has natural immunity.

- Only about 1 out of 500+ cases are being reported these days. (This is one reason why the reported numbers are very small.
<snip>
The 500+ number was quite right .. Now that some reliable data is coming out of China, we do know the deaths have been 60K+ (Link: NYT)

And total COVID hospitalizations (per China) peaked at 1.6 million on January 5, including 128,000 severe cases
(The numbers are from hospitals so those who died, or were sick, at home are not counted here)
****
Rest of the post then is still valid..

- Short-term future still does not look good. The pandemic will hit the remaining population soon, and then the cases will rise further. It will continue until more than 90% population gets infected.
ed in last - March/May time) - )

****
For India - Now we have additional 3 week data and things basically looks the same-

- (In short again) at present we continue to have > 98% population with natural immunity. and no reason for concern. Over time, some percentage will lose natural immunity, and it may cause a small ripple, but it is VERY UNLIKELY that a significant rise will occur.
- We have additional data - BF7 or XBB are not going to have any significant effect (These variant have been detected in India for long enough for SUTRA model to notice and predict the trajectory_

***

(SUTRA folks have warned/advised China almost a year ago and shared these conclusions - watch out for zero covid policy which India learned watching Kerala and UP).

.

- (I am still looking at US numbers/model closely
Amber G.
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by Amber G. »

For China: looking at the latest data - some estimates ( Believe that these are consistent with SUTRA experts)

-- Cases inChina are about 25 and 35 million cases a day.
(Better estimates if I can get some data about any reliable sero-survey there in the past)

(Comparable to India's Delta wave peak ~ 13 million (reported cases 400K *epsilon).
India witnessed, at the peak around 4500 deaths/day then ( NYT and ddm's claims of *very* exaggerated figures can safely be ignored). India reacted quickly and learned -- do not know if this will be true of China)
yensoy
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by yensoy »

Best analysis of China Covid opening mismanagement - reasons and rationale
Former SCMP editor-in-chief Wang Xiangwei, one of the most credible China experts on the scene, sits down with chief news editor Yonden Lhatoo to break it down.
(interviewer is Indian, BTW)
sanman
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by sanman »

India lost hundreds of thousands of lives to COVID -- a virus which appears to have originated from research being done at a Chinese govt lab in Wuhan.

Why is that that we have not taken up this issue against China? Why are we giving them a free pass on this?
Why are we not seeking accountability from China, and even liability?
Even if you say China is unlikely to respond favorably -- we still need to speak up and take them to task.

Americans may be giving China a free pass and keeping quiet, since Americans may share complicity through Fauci.
But India is not America, and we Indians don't share any complicity.
So why is India keeping quiet?

Are we only inclined to take issue with something if the Americans are spearheading the charge?
Why are we not saying something on behalf of our own people?
Chinese even mocked us by posting images online of Indian funeral pyres -- totally ignoring that they were the cause of these pyres.

Not only were Indians affected, but entire world was affected. Entire 3rd world (nations of South) were affected.
Europeans were likewise affected.
Even if Europeans want to keep quiet to preserve economic ties with China, why should the rest of the world shut up?

We Indians kept saying will will use the crisis to demonstrate our useful assistance to the world.
But meanwhile, conversely, the Chinese who created the crisis should have paid some price for it - but they haven't.
Why is this?
ritesh
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by ritesh »

https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/china-br ... 31.htm/amp
From the link...
XBB is expected to result in 40 million infections per week by the end of May before peaking at 65 million a month later. This comes nearly six months after Beijing dismantled its Covid Zero curbs, allowing the virus to spread rapidly among the country’s 1.4 billion residents.
A World Health Organization (WHO) advisory group recently recommended that this year’s COVID-19 booster shots be updated to target one of the currently dominant XBB variants. New formulations should aim to produce antibody responses to the XBB.1.5 or XBB.1.16 variants, and other formulations or platforms that achieve neutralizing antibody responses against XBB lineages could also be considered.
The group also suggested no longer including the original COVID-19 strain in future vaccines, based on data that it no longer circulates in human beings and shots targeting it produce “undetectable or very low levels of neutralizing antibodies” against currently circulating variants.
ramana
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by ramana »

Yes quite concerning that a new Covid form is emerging in China.
The worrisome thing is

The group also suggested no longer including the original COVID-19 strain in future vaccines, based on data that it no longer circulates in human beings and shots targeting it produce “undetectable or very low levels of neutralizing antibodies” against currently circulating variants.
ramana
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by ramana »

Basically, Pfizer etc are now the same as the Sinopharm vaccine.
Amber G.
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by Amber G. »

Very serious:

Next month up to 65 million cases per week are expected
(Peak Covid in China last December led to about 37 million cases per day - this is about 10M/day still *extremely* concerning.).

Story in today's NY Times: Covid is coming back to China
Image
hgupta
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by hgupta »

Looks like they are going for mass immunity on the double by opening the floodgates. I think they want to kill off the old people so the CCP can raid the pension system and pay off all that debts.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Covid19 in China

Post by sanjaykumar »

In fact, this new milder strain will confer more robust immunity on the Chinese.
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