Just few data points on how SUTRA could be an useful tool even when data is fuzzy...
This was posted three weeks ago!
Amber G. wrote:Some analysis per SUTRA model - (With good amount of confidence)
<snip>
- The percentage of naturally immune (immunity acquired via previous infection) population in China was less than 5% in October-end and less than 20% in November-end.
- At present, less than 60% of population has natural immunity.
- Only about 1 out of 500+ cases are being reported these days. (This is one reason why the reported numbers are very small.
<snip>
The 500+ number was quite right .. Now that some reliable data is coming out of China,
we do know the deaths have been 60K+ (Link:
NYT)
And total COVID hospitalizations (per China)
peaked at 1.6 million on January 5, including 128,000 severe cases
(The numbers are from hospitals so those who died, or were sick, at home are not counted here)
****
Rest of the post then is still valid..
- Short-term future still does not look good. The pandemic will hit the remaining population soon, and then the cases will rise further. It will continue until more than 90% population gets infected.
ed in last - March/May time) - )
****
For India - Now we have additional 3 week data and things basically looks the same-
- (In short again) at present we continue to have
> 98% population with natural immunity. and no reason for concern. Over time, some percentage will lose natural immunity, and it may cause a small ripple, but it is VERY UNLIKELY that a significant rise will occur.
- We have additional data - BF7 or XBB are not going to have any significant effect (These variant have been detected in India for long enough for SUTRA model to notice and predict the trajectory_
***
(SUTRA folks have warned/advised China almost a year ago and shared these conclusions - watch out for zero covid policy which India learned watching Kerala and UP).
.
- (I am still looking at US numbers/model closely