Cruise Missile Test in Pakistan: News and Discussions

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Postby Rangudu » 14 Aug 2005 05:25

From old JDW.

JANE'S MISSILES AND ROCKETS - OCTOBER 01, 2004

-----------------------------------------------------------------

China tests new land-attack cruise missile

China has test-fired a new land attack cruise missile (LACM) designated Dong Hai-10 (DH-10), or East China Sea-10, writes Wendell Minnick. A US defence source identified the DH-10 as a ground-launched second-generation LACM with a range of more than 1,500km. He said it is likely to be equipped with an integrated inertial navigation system/Global Positioning System, supplemented by a terrain contour mapping system and digital scene-matching terminal-homing system able to provide a circular error probable (CEP) of 10m.

China is also expected to field a second LACM within the next few years. The Ying Ji-63 (YJ-63), or Strike Eagle-63, is described by the source as a first-generation LACM with a range of 400-500km and the ability to carry a 500kg high explosive warhead at a speed of Mach 0.68. The missile is believed to be fitted with combined inertial and GPS mid-course guidance, plus some form of electro-optical terminal guidance. The latter is expected to provide a CEP of 10-15m, but it will probably be limited by weather. If it is a TV homing system rather than an autonomous scene-matching sensor, this will require a line-of-sight communications link with the launch aircraft or another platform. Is this our Nai?

The US source further pointed out that Harpy unmanned aerial vehicles obtained by China from Israel in 2001 are now operational.

These three sophisticated weapons pose new challenges to Taiwan, which has been engaged in extended debate over the ballistic missile threat from China. "Taiwan has not met the growing LACM threat head on," the source complained.

The YJ-63 is likely to be launched from the Xian H-6 'Badger' bomber, a copy of the Tupolev Tu-16. The naval version of this aircraft already has two wing-mounts for anti-ship missiles, but China is experimenting with additional pylons. One H-6 (No. 81217) has already been modified to incorporate four wing-mounted cruise missile pylons.

Defence sources stated that China has the capability to convert up to 25 H-6 bombers, so it could eventually be able to add 100 air-launched cruise missiles to the force of 200-300 short-range ballistic missiles expected to form the first wave of missiles launched during any Chinese attack on Taiwan. "Before too long, there will also be ship and sub-launched cruise missiles," stated one source.

Some within the US Department of Defence argue that Taiwan should procure elevated sensors, such as tethered aerostats, to counter the LACM threat. The aerostat sensor could cue Taiwan's HAWKs. Taiwan could also acquire Surface-Launched AMRAAM.

"Taiwan's Patriots, both PAC-2 GEM and [the planned] PAC-3 can handle cruise missiles, but as long as you have got the sensors and early detection, HAWKs do just fine," the source said. Patriot missiles are too expensive for use against cruise missile targets, he added, and are more suited to engaging ballistic missiles.

The US source made no mention of Taiwan's alternative strategy of developing a limited strike capability, a policy not favoured by Washington.

The US is currently developing the Joint Land-Attack Cruise Missile Defence Elevated Netted Sensor system, which is due to be deployed in 2008-09. Other aerostats that could fulfil Taiwan's needs are available on a shorter timescale. These include the aerostat surveillance systems released to Kuwait and Pakistan. The Kuwaiti system is based on a modified APG-63 Active Electronically Scanned Array radar, while the Pakistani system is equipped with the Lockheed Martin L-88(V)3 D-band surveillance radar.

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Postby Sudhir » 14 Aug 2005 05:40

Ok, the Pakis fire another Chinese firecracker - thats certain:

1 Flight --> Serial Production --> and lack of any technical base in Pakiland

Whats the big deal?

Rather they spend resources (or the resources of their Chinki masters), on low speed cruise missiles than ballistic missiles.

The cruise missiles can be shot down, are certain to be a lot less accurate, will have a much larger warning time.

The main advantage for India:

1) Steps up the game in cruise missile development, maybe the Bhramos-MK2 - new bar to reach

2) Certainly bound to improve low level search radar network on the border

3) improvements in the air defence network - like LLQRM, longer range Akash, and

4) More Phalcons, AWACS, long range surveillance assets (green pine)

Overall, like Kagril, this new Paki development will only strengthen our offensive capability

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Quid pro quo?

Postby astal » 14 Aug 2005 05:55

Paki experts,

Since it is unlikely that the Paki's developed this on their own. It could have most likely been China or as TSJ says, a small outside chance of KSA.

In case of the Chinese what was the cost to TSP. Some base in China? More like Gwadar? The Chinese are very good at extracting a cost. What did the Pakis give them for this obvious crown jewel. Or maybe it was the cost TSP extracted for handing over Tomahawk. :evil:

The obvious response from India would be to ignore TSP, make sure the missile was Chinese, and test and deploy 100's of Agni 3 or 4'rs. Spend more on Sagarika.

The Chinese have to understand that there is a cost to everything.

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Postby Alok_N » 14 Aug 2005 05:56

TSJones wrote:
I'm not sure inertial navigation is all that hard to do. US has been doing it since the early 1960s.



please consider things in perspective ... we are talking packees here ...

those yoyos find it hard to do things that humanity has been doing for a millenium ...

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Re: Quid pro quo?

Postby Alok_N » 14 Aug 2005 06:14

astal wrote:
The Chinese have to understand that there is a cost to everything.


The chinese don't need to understand anything ... nor does India need to explain anything to them ...

there is really no change in real terms ... the unification from two enemies to one enemy is a move towards implied clarity ...

whether this represents a recognition of the value of closer cooperation with america or not remains to be seen ... all forms of editorials will be written ... all shades of commies will whine at high pitch and a myriad of entrenched emotionalists will spare no effort in adding to the noise ...

there will be allegations of american choreography behind paki bravado ... there will be innuendo and mighty doses of self-righteous-speak ... "the yankees are doing it to manipulate India" ...

there will be screeching nail-chewing reminders anchored in arcane and archaic values esconsed in Indian ethos ...

but none would be more welcome than the pip-squeak voice on the back-benches who dares say, "non-alignment is for the fairies".

JMT.

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Re: Quid pro quo?

Postby pillai » 14 Aug 2005 08:38

Alok_N wrote:but none would be more welcome than the pip-squeak voice on the back-benches who dares say, "non-alignment is for the fairies".

JMT.


:lol: :lol: It might not be for the fairies, but past experience amply demonstrates that it certainly is for thumka-laga'ing lotharios, who can't get a date... :D

(sorry couldn't help there...back to lurk mode.)

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Postby Arun_S » 14 Aug 2005 08:48

pillai: Lion don't move in herd. Its abour pride and poise.

Tsk tsk ... Parasite dont understand that concept, all they seek is partonage in fold of pig's skin. You call that date ?? Ha ha ..

Friendship is betwene EQUAL's. Slavery for those who are puny.

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Postby Kakkaji » 14 Aug 2005 08:58

Missile plan right on target, says Pranab

http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story ... t_id=76256

NEW DELHI, AUGUST 13: With Pakistan claiming today that its test-firing of Hatf-7 Babur cruise missile was to address concerns about New Delhi’s move to buy missiles and missile-defence equipment from the US and Israel, Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee said India’s indigenous guided missile programme was on schedule and progressing without glitches.

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Re: Quid pro quo?

Postby Alok_N » 14 Aug 2005 09:03

speaking of pip-squeaks, it seems I did attract one:

pillai wrote: It might not be for the fairies, but past experience amply demonstrates that it certainly is for thumka-laga'ing lotharios, who can't get a date... :D


let us analyze this species ...

he speaks of "past experience" ... shall we delve into the subject, as distasteful as it may seem, of this specimen's "past experience"?

is he, for example, an irritant bacteria that infects the nether ends of TFTA types? ... that would explain his need to evoke "scratchings" when none were necessary ...

or, perhaps, he is a distant cousin of the hitherto unknown itchy infliction that causes men to scratch their b*lls ...

a testament to the well known human quandry: "why do women rub their eyes in the morning? Its because they don't have any Pillais to scratch" ...

you get my drift ...

the specimen is a challenge to biologists of any worth ... unfortunately, I am an amateur, and I can't expand beyond what I have already expoused ...

regarding the unfathomable comment "thumka-laga'ing lotharios", I may have further analyses to present ...

here is my take ... take it for what its worth ...

the specimen in question has a thumb up his posterior ... that explains the thumka part ... further, this thumb is solidly placed in regions that make him scream for his "laga" or "lajja" in better pakjabi pronounciation ...

in other words, the thumb is causing him embarassment ...

very well, let it be known that alok_n is compassionate if anything ...

we care for his lajja ... deeply ... so what is this about "lotharios"?

let it be known that we will fight the Lotharians on pillai's belalf once he manges to dislodge the thumd from his musharraf ...

:)

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Postby Singha » 14 Aug 2005 10:36

pillai wastes a lot of forum bandwidth, his S:N ratio is zero from the start. we could keep him around as the court jester but why not put him out of his pain and just do the tag-n-bag routine.

do we have an obligation to entertain every paki who walks in off the street and demands biryani, a hot shower and a warm bed ?

Raju

Postby Raju » 14 Aug 2005 10:47

yeah, like Alok ji mentioned, give him time to insert his thumb into his musharraf and put him to sleep for a while. Only when he takes his thumb out and starts to examine it, do we need his valued opinion.

Repeat procedure.

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Postby Dileep » 14 Aug 2005 11:04

At one point in my research I saw a mention that YJ is ASCMs. I stand corrected now.

The missile is believed to be fitted with combined inertial and GPS mid-course guidance, plus some form of electro-optical terminal guidance. The latter is expected to provide a CEP of 10-15m, but it will probably be limited by weather. If it is a TV homing system rather than an autonomous scene-matching sensor, this will require a line-of-sight communications link with the launch aircraft or another platform


Exactly! It is not simple to do an image comparison based homing system. Let alone an image comparison navigation system. And I have not seen anything that has shown exceptional software capability in any of the chinese stuff either. Russia WAS bad during soviet days, but now they seem to catch up.

My guess would be it would take several years before the Nai could get any capability to fly up across the border. Only that we must prepare ourselves to receive him with whart is due to him at that time.

I would like to get a bit deeper into the technology and its strategic implications. Anyone who want to help out, please e-mail me at dileepks at hotpop dot com

Raju

Postby Raju » 14 Aug 2005 11:19

If the GPS guidance of this CM is jammed, then does it have any back-up ??

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Postby Dileep » 14 Aug 2005 11:26

No system depends upon GPS alone. An inertial system would always be present. If GPS is jammed, which more or less would be localized, the INS will still fly the missile. The plausible way to defeat it is to use beter radars to detect it and then shoot it down. You should expect the warhead to explode when you do that too.

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Postby Singha » 14 Aug 2005 11:39


Dileep
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Postby Dileep » 14 Aug 2005 11:44

Thanx Singhaji

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Postby ldev » 14 Aug 2005 12:53

I think there is more to this *test* than the obvious Pak sending India a message that the more you spend on BMD, the more we will make you spend and the Chinese sending a message to India and maybe to the US. The Chinese cruise missiles appear to have a range of 1500 to 1800 kms i.e. approximately 950 to 1100 miles. The Chinese are IMO also sending a message to the US i.e. should the balloon really go up over Taiwan do not assume that hostilities will be limited to the theater of your choice and do not assume you can decapitate us without suffering massive and probably terminal retaliation on the engine that powers your economies i.e. oil. That they have the ability via their direct *land bridge* into Pakiland to transfer a huge number of cruise missiles which tipped with nuclear weapons can be fired at will to the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia just under 1000 miles away. And if fired from further up the Baluchistan coast i.e. Gwadar, the distance is even less.

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Postby Johann » 14 Aug 2005 12:59

Raj,

It is one thing to see something on paper, it is another to have someone credible tell you that the paper is to be taken seriously. You asked me what convinced me, and I have shared that. You asked me what else stood behind that, and I've pointed to the paper sources.

The DND is a short document with multiple references to NFU and survivability, so you can read it through it yourself.

I will however quote from page 14, Chapter 1 of the 2001-2002 MoD Annual Report;

"1.88 India's nuclear doctrine is based on maintaining a minimum credible deterrent and a no-first-use policy as opposed to nuclear war fighting doctrines or postures of launch on warning. "

I dont doubt that should circumstances change drastically that the GoI would revise the policy, but all evidence suggests that this is where things stand.

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Postby Raj Malhotra » 14 Aug 2005 14:04

Johann wrote:Raj,


I will however quote from page 14, Chapter 1 of the 2001-2002 MoD Annual Report;

"1.88 India's nuclear doctrine is based on maintaining a minimum credible deterrent and a no-first-use policy as opposed to nuclear war fighting doctrines or postures of launch on warning. "



Nobody is saying India does not have no first use policy. It is how does one define India's said policy in terms of "pakistan".

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Postby Joype » 14 Aug 2005 15:05

I think we should acquire these equipments and technology!

D Prem had posted this link before

http://esc.hanscom.af.mil/esc-pa/the%20integrator/2005/July/07072005/07072005-14.htm

MP-RTIP radar, built for the E-10 aircraft, has been secretly designed to jam cruise missile electronics

SEE IT, JAM IT, KILL IT.

The technological walls separating radar, electronic warfare and missile defense are coming down.

This fundamental shift has resulted in development, not yet publicly acknowledged, of multifunction, active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars that can locate stealthy airborne targets and then jam their computers and guidance systems with at least enough effect to drive them off course by using a focused beam of X-band radar energy.

This weapons capability--against cruise and air-to-air missiles--is one of the closely held effects that are to be produced by the Northrop Grumman/Raytheon Multi-Platform Radar Technology Insertion Program (MP-RTIP) now under development for use on the E-10 airborne surveillance aircraft.

The technology roughly parallels the emerging development of ground-based high-power microwave (HPM) devices as anti-missile systems. In fact, the first such HPM weapon, under development by Raytheon, looks much like a large AESA radar. Analysts contend that it should produce broadband pulses of microwave energy that can jam electrical components at ranges of perhaps 100 mi. and destroy electrical components at tens of miles.


Don't you guys this will help to eleminate the threat of pak cruise missile?

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Postby TSJones » 14 Aug 2005 16:02


Don't you guys this will help to eleminate the threat of pak cruise missile?


Hope there is no friendly a/c around when they use it.

Not sure all US military a/c are hardened for EMP. In fact, I'm sure they are not. However, the a/c that I worked on had manual cables and pulleys tied to the stick just in case all other control mechanisms failed. That would be a real thrill to be flying at 600 miles an hour and have to move flying control surfaces with cable and pulleys in an instant. Yeeooow!

addendum:

The first US cruise missiles worked by inertial navigation. No GPS was available. And if the US gets wind of a possible attack using GPS type weapons, guess whut's gonna get shut off! But then the morons up north have their system. Sigh. And the euros want to horn in on the action too with their system. Double sigh.

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Postby Ani » 14 Aug 2005 18:22

ldev wrote:I think there is more to this *test* than the obvious Pak sending India a message that the more you spend on BMD, the more we will make you spend and the Chinese sending a message to India and maybe to the US. The Chinese cruise missiles appear to have a range of 1500 to 1800 kms i.e. approximately 950 to 1100 miles. The Chinese are IMO also sending a message to the US i.e. should the balloon really go up over Taiwan do not assume that hostilities will be limited to the theater of your choice and do not assume you can decapitate us without suffering massive and probably terminal retaliation on the engine that powers your economies i.e. oil. That they have the ability via their direct *land bridge* into Pakiland to transfer a huge number of cruise missiles which tipped with nuclear weapons can be fired at will to the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia just under 1000 miles away. And if fired from further up the Baluchistan coast i.e. Gwadar, the distance is even less.



Yeah that is a very possible scenario. But I am sure the Saudi's probably will protect their property pretty well. But I don't think the pakistani's will allow someone to attack a fellow muslim nation. Especially Saudia Arabia.

The Chinese already can reach the west coast of America with Nukes. They have a range of 10000km to 13000km, so they got India pretty much covered.

India is gonna test out the Agni III at the end of this year. Should have a range in excess of 3000km.

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Postby Rye » 14 Aug 2005 19:12

Ani wrote:
But I don't think the pakistani's will allow someone to attack a fellow muslim nation. Especially Saudia Arabia.


Something does not smell right about your posts, especially all the pains you take at equal-equal.

Pakistan sold out Iran (during the Xerox Khan episode), which also happens to be a "Fellow muslim nation" by the way. The bottomline is that pakistanis will sell out their own parents and family members to gain a tactical advantage over India or to gain some more extortion money from its benefactors -- so while they do a lot of singing and dancing about playing pied-piper to the muslim world, the reality is that they have no problems screwing over any of their "muslim brothers" for their own benefit.

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Postby Ani » 14 Aug 2005 19:22

Rye wrote:Ani wrote:
But I don't think the pakistani's will allow someone to attack a fellow muslim nation. Especially Saudia Arabia.


Something does not smell right about your posts, especially all the pains you take at equal-equal.



Man this equal - equal thing was from a damn news paper article that I quoted. I am after a fair opinion.

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Postby shiv » 14 Aug 2005 19:24

Ani wrote: But I don't think the pakistani's will allow someone to attack a fellow muslim nation. Especially Saudia Arabia.


:rotfl:

Ha! You have fallen for the "ummah is united" rhetoric.

Pakistan will cheerfully sell itself to the highest bidder if they can help get one finger up India's backside. If China says I will help you own Mecca - Pakistan will gladly double lick China's ass.

Pakistan set up and nurtured the Taliban. One "shush!" + promise of F-16s from the US and Taliban is dead meat.

You know NOTHING about Pakistan yet

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Postby SSridhar » 14 Aug 2005 19:44

I am sure the Saudi's probably will protect their property pretty well


Oh yeah...to be sure. I have first hand knowledge of these brave Saudi warriors.

I don't think the pakistani's will allow someone to attack a fellow muslim nation


Mabruk...you have hit the nail on the head. Let's look at some of these samples of love & affection.

What a profound statement you have made when all that one sees everyday in TSP Cuckooland is Sunnis killing Shias and vice-versa and both jointly exterminating the Ahmeddiyas.

TSP's FM at that time, a gentleman going by the name Noon, sided with the Anglo-French in the Suez crisis.

Both Noon and his predecessor FM, Sir Zafarullah Khan, wanted to recognize Israel

The 1971 love-making incident with fellow rice-and-fish eating, dark-skinned Muslim countrymen in the East is still fresh.

The continued refusal to "accept" the Bihari-Pakistanis is nothing but a selfless act of love for fellow Muslims.

The repeated use of the air-force to strafe the Balochis, even as late as early this year, is purely out of love for fellow Muslims. In fact, the forced occupation of Kalat was itself a great act of love and fondness.

Gen. Zia-ul-Haq, Mard-al-Momeen leading a Brigade on that fateful Friday to massacre un-armed Palestenian refugees in the Jordanian camp, which reportedly killed more Palestenians than the Israelis in all the earlier years put together, was all for the sake of the Ummah. What a brave charge against fellow Muslims !

And, recently TSP left its creation the Taleban in midstream out of love for these bedfellows.
Last edited by SSridhar on 14 Aug 2005 21:29, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby SSridhar » 14 Aug 2005 19:48

Man this equal - equal thing was from a damn news paper article that I quoted.


:lol:

What delightful naivety !

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Postby Ani » 14 Aug 2005 19:59

Wow. :lol: so much for united ummah then.

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Postby Ani » 14 Aug 2005 20:01

SSridhar wrote:
Man this equal - equal thing was from a damn news paper article that I quoted.


:lol:

What delightful naivety !


I copied and pasted a part from the article that I quoted. The equal - equal thing is from that article.

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Postby rsingh » 14 Aug 2005 20:25

TSJones wrote:How high above sea level is New Delhi? Or is that a state secret?


0.396km . Every rly station's hight above sea level is indicated at the end of plateform.

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Postby AshishN » 14 Aug 2005 20:31

Ani wrote:
SSridhar wrote:
Man this equal - equal thing was from a damn news paper article that I quoted.


:lol:

What delightful naivety !


I copied and pasted a part from that was a part of the article. The equal - equal thing is from that article.


Ani:

Get this straight: I defended you because I thought you slipped up once. But now you have shown that you make it a business of slipping up.

"Not attack a muslim country?" What extreme BS. Have you read anything about Bangladesh 71? The muslims Pak keeps on attacking in Pak itself?

and if you put aside this "country" thing, almost all the people Pak kills in Kashmir on a daily basis are muslims, on teh pretext of "helping this indigneous struggle".

your continual showing of Paki symptoms -believing all BS from the Paki Musharrafs that Pak is a leader of muslims etc etc-- is disgusting. Shiv has asked you to read up on Pak. Do it. Your 1 article reading does not seem to have done anything. Or at least stop posting for 3-4 months till you can see what Pak really is from lurking aroung our posts here.

I am going thru the pains of putting up a big post addressed to a newbie because BR is not a superficial security defense mera bharat mahan forum. We have a wide readership. A lot of our readers are fresh clueless people. Since we also have a lot of recognized experts, what goes on here carries weight and shapes opinions. BSing newbies here are more harmful than you think. Please lurk more (everybody does, for 2-6 months) before posting. That way you do not encourage a sub generation of people who are pro-India at heart but who think (and post) anti India things. "Pak=muslim" is a very anti India thing. Pak is not = muslim at all.

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Postby ldev » 14 Aug 2005 21:10

Ani wrote:
ldev wrote:I think there is more to this *test* than the obvious Pak sending India a message that the more you spend on BMD, the more we will make you spend and the Chinese sending a message to India and maybe to the US. The Chinese cruise missiles appear to have a range of 1500 to 1800 kms i.e. approximately 950 to 1100 miles. The Chinese are IMO also sending a message to the US i.e. should the balloon really go up over Taiwan do not assume that hostilities will be limited to the theater of your choice and do not assume you can decapitate us without suffering massive and probably terminal retaliation on the engine that powers your economies i.e. oil. That they have the ability via their direct *land bridge* into Pakiland to transfer a huge number of cruise missiles which tipped with nuclear weapons can be fired at will to the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia just under 1000 miles away. And if fired from further up the Baluchistan coast i.e. Gwadar, the distance is even less.



Yeah that is a very possible scenario. But I am sure the Saudi's probably will protect their property pretty well. But I don't think the pakistani's will allow someone to attack a fellow muslim nation. Especially Saudia Arabia.

The Chinese already can reach the west coast of America with Nukes. They have a range of 10000km to 13000km, so they got India pretty much covered.

India is gonna test out the Agni III at the end of this year. Should have a range in excess of 3000km.


The very idea of the US coming up with cruise missiles was to defeat the ballistic missile defence of any opposition. Also cruise missiles are relatively cheap to produce and can be produced by the hundreds. If tipped with nuclear warheads and fired in salvos of dozens at a time, they will be overwhelm any air defence. As Johann has pointed out in a post, cruise missile defence is a moving target.

I am sure that all of this is not lost on the Chinese. I think by allowing this test, the Pakis have been far too *tactically brilliant*. I believe the US is alive to the possibility of this scenario stated by me. Wasnt there something in the wind about the planned India-US air exercises this coming November being partially held in Jammu and Kashmir and the Pakis getting their knickers in a twist about this. Looks like the US also believes that having the capability to destroy this Chinese Paki *land bridge* is important in the event of hostilities with China. So the *tactically brilliant* Pakis have really pushed themselves into a corner vis a vis the US with this test. I think there is more to India US cooperation than fuelling some nuclear reactors.

Your posts appear to have a certain Paki smell about them. Maybe you are not one. And if you are, why dont you just fess up. If you are not, as other posters have said, you have a lot to learn about the Pakis.

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Postby Singha » 14 Aug 2005 21:46

> the Chinese cruise missiles appear to have a range of 1500 to 1800 kms

no real evidence exists as to numbers , range and capabilities of the chinese CM inventory. they havent been shown off in any parade. that said, if they have the KH55 engine and drawings, 1000km is really easy. kh55 moved from 2000->3000km by using CFTs.

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Postby Johann » 14 Aug 2005 21:51

Ani, I am going to assume that you are a serious contributor. The PRC is not interested in an intercontinental cruise missile. These are weapons designed for conflicts on their periphery, starting with Taiwan. Their ability to project force of any significance in to the Indian Ocean Region is still a decade or two away, but they are steadily laying the foundations. Pakistan and Burma, Iran and Bangladesh are the corridors through which they intend to import energy, trade goods and defend their interests, protecting themselves while threatening others. It is going to be a very bad day for India and the West when the Chinese begin routinely operating submarines in the IOR.

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Postby ldev » 14 Aug 2005 21:52

Singha wrote:> the Chinese cruise missiles appear to have a range of 1500 to 1800 kms

no real evidence exists as to numbers , range and capabilities of the chinese CM inventory. they havent been shown off in any parade. that said, if they have the KH55 engine and drawings, 1000km is really easy. kh55 moved from 2000->3000km by using CFTs.


You are right. If anything, I have deliberately understated the range. Eastern province of KSA and all of the other oil producing countries in the region will be easily covered.

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Postby Johann » 14 Aug 2005 21:56

L Dev,

The Chinese would much rather hit the US airbase at Al-Udeid than oil wells at Dhahran.

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Postby ldev » 14 Aug 2005 22:10

Johann wrote:L Dev,

The Chinese would much rather hit the US airbase at Al-Udeid than oil wells at Dhahran.


Johann,

I would think that it depends on how far up the escalatory ladder things go starting in Taiwan. Maybe initially Al-Udeid will be a target and if the US responds to that by economic targetting, depending on availability and numbers, the Chinese will target oil production facilities in the Middle East.

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Postby Johann » 14 Aug 2005 22:31

The Chinese intend to compete with and perhaps even replace the Americans when it comes to influence with ME oil producers. They are not going to threaten to smash up the most valuable economic assets of those governments, and create energy price spikes that could outlast even the positive conclusion of a confrontation over Taiwan. The Chinese have put significant efforts in to peeling away support for Taiwan - Singapore, the EU, even Australia. Attacking oil production hurts everyone, not just the Americans. I think the Chinese would very much like to be in a position to threaten US-bound tanker traffic, just as the Americans and others have the opportunity to interdict Chinese energy supplies. Sudan offers potential opportunities to reach even traffic in the Red Sea. There are already reports of PLA men in mufti guarding Chinese energy investments in the country.

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Postby Singha » 14 Aug 2005 22:59

doesnt the US actually buy most of its imported oil from north sea, canada(athabasca?), mexico, venezuela and nigeria ? I wuz thinkin the EU china and Japan are the biggest buyers of gulf oil.

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Postby Prateek » 14 Aug 2005 23:11

kgoan wrote:TSJ,

Saudi cash, sure. China? No brainer that.

But Euro tech? I would have thought Ukranian seems more likely.


Long back I had suggested an existence of a terrorist Sultanate... as Evil Pentagon or the Evil P5 ... Following is the composition... They all work in tandem...

The Sultan - China
Financer - KSA
Muscle power, human resources, catalysts of rogue acts : Pakistan, NKorea and Syria.


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