Cruise Missile Test in Pakistan: News and Discussions

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Postby ldev » 14 Aug 2005 23:11

Johann,

Hypothetically, in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the US targets Chinese military targets and the Chinese could target US military bases in the Middle East via Pakistan. If the Chinese push into Taiwan is not significantly slowed down, will the US respond with economic targetting on mainland China? If not, Chinese retaliation on Middle Eastern oil facilities will not occur. If the US does economic targetting, I think the Chinese will respond with oil field targetting. I think what you have described is what the Chinese would like after the end game i.e. Chinese control over the ME oil producers. As of now, I cannot see either the Americans or the Chinese blinking first. These scenarios are based on a rational mindset being present throughout any kind of hostilities. If the Chinese believe that the end game over Taiwan will result in the loss of the parameters mentioned by you earlier i.e. CPC loosing control, destruction of the economic prosperity over the last 15 years etc. will the Chinese mindset remain rational or will they go for broke.
Last edited by ldev on 14 Aug 2005 23:36, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby Johann » 14 Aug 2005 23:13

I believe that roughly a quarter of US oil imports come from the ME.
However, attacks on US bound or owned oil tankers would stretch US military resources as well as drive up prices. Still this is all a distant worst case scenario. Particularly if India and the US succeed in keeping the PRC's presence in the IOR limited.

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Postby Dileep » 15 Aug 2005 00:55

Isn't china already kicking yankee ass by bidding up the oil price? Sixty friggin dollars per barrel!? And $2.70 a gallon for gasolene in bloody Bay Area? They don't need a missle to stick it up to unkil!

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Postby jrjrao » 15 Aug 2005 01:32

Rahul Bedi, an Indian, a defense expert at "Jane's Defense Weekly" who is based in the Indian capital, Delhi,... concedes that Pakistan may have a point.

"Pakistan does have justification on its side because India is on a procurement drive," Bedi said. "It is buying sophisticated weaponry from all over the world -- from Israel, from the United States, from France, from European countries. So India is really building up a huge arsenal over the last two to three years. So, yes, there is cause for alarm in Pakistan. And, in a sense, if you really look at it objectively, there is some truth in what Pakistan is saying."

Duncan Lennox, an expert on South Asia working for "Jane's Strategic Weapons Yearbook," says the cruise missile test reflects growing Pakistani concern that India's missile-defense system is becoming too sophisticated.

http://www.truthnews.net/month/2005080017.htm

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Postby Sunil » 15 Aug 2005 03:29

They are saying it again and again and we are getting mixed up with this bs about range and counter missiles systems - it has imo nothing to do with that.

The Pakistanis are ticked off at the Indian refusal to accomodate cruise missiles in the notification system. The Pakistanis plan to sell that information to people to PRC and the US. However the missile was assembled - the American and the Chinese signed off on the test. The effort here is to lure India into issuing notifications about the cruise missile tests it conducts.

Aroosa Alam and the unnamed Pakistani officials are saying the same thing repeatedly - they want to know when India conducts its ballistic missile tests.

The Russian is right. While China and the US may be willing to see this latest missile test in Pakistan as a carefully orchestrated display aimed at provoking India. The fact of the matter is that *in Pakistan* this test will be seen as Pakistan's entry into the big league.

Forget about a nuclear payload, the Pakistanis will never actually load a nuclear warhead on the missile, it is too risky - to do that. Any Pakistani corps commander who has a nuclear tipped missile in his possession will automatically declare himself the ruler of Pakistan irrespective of whether he has the launch codes or not. The missile will never be "produced" in numbers because Musharraf cannot guarentee that it will not be fired at Islamabad by some lunatic. Any large numbers of missile "produced" will be kept in storage.

The Pakistanis know that any attempt to point the missile in India is fraught with the possibility of unpleasant consequences - but launching that missile at Jalabad? will they think twice about that? how many scuds were launched at Pindi from Jalalabad? What will be effect of a Pakistani cruise missile hit on Jalalbad? The idea that this latest gift to Pakistan from its US and Chinese benefactors can somehow be limited in consequence to India is flawed. The Pakistanis will use the cruise missile test to threaten and undermine American control over Jalalbad.

Until I see 30 cruise missiles in a parade in Islamabad. I am going to treat this event as being critical to the security of Afghanistan.

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Postby ldev » 15 Aug 2005 06:41

I dont know if this was posted earlier, an old Washington Post article about a US tomahawk that crashed in Pakistan in 1998. The video of the Paki cruise missile is very similar. It looks like the Pakis recovered the missile and gave it to the Chinese who have managed to do some reverse engineering and make something of a replica.


Pakistanis Say They Are Studying U.S. Missile
Tomahawk Reportedly Was Recovered After Raid on Camps in Afghanistan

By Kamran Khan
Special to The Washington Post
Friday, August 28, 1998

KARACHI, Pakistan, Aug. 27—Pakistani scientists and weapons experts are studying components salvaged from an American cruise missile that landed last week in southern Pakistan, security sources said today. They expressed optimism that they could unlock technological secrets that will advance Pakistan's missile program.

Officials said experts associated with Pakistan's civilian and military missile programs were inspecting the guidance system, onboard computer and propulsion system of the Tomahawk missile, which was fired Aug. 20 in the U.S. attack on camps in Afghanistan but apparently fell short of its target.

Some sources indicated that information obtained by examining the missile might be shared with China, Pakistan's ally, but officials refused to comment on that possibility.

A Pakistani official speaking on condition of anonymity said the find was "a jackpot" that included the satellite global positioning system and other technological improvements made to Tomahawks since the 1991 Persian Gulf War. "We have missile experts who would most certainly demonstrate a remarkable job of reverse engineering" and develop technological know-how that Pakistan lacks, the official said.

Pakistan reported earlier this week that it had recovered the missile Saturday near Kharan, about 370 miles south of the targeted camps in Afghanistan. Pentagon officials have declined to confirm that a missile landed in Pakistan or to comment on the implications for Pakistan and China which hope to acquire cruise missiles.

The Pakistani sources noted with some surprise that the missile was largely intact when it was discovered. Sources in Washington said the Tomahawk might not have detonated because the arming mechanism is not activated until minutes before the missile reaches its target.

Retired Lt. Gen. Thomas G. McInerney said he doubted the Pakistani claims. When cruise missiles crash, he said, "its like dropping a Waterford crystal glass. They are designed to do a lot of things, but they aren't designed to bounce. They are very fragile." What did not break apart on impact would probably have been burned by the missile's fuel which would ignite on impact, he said.

U.S. defense officials also scoffed at the notion that the Pakistanis had gained an intelligence windfall, suggesting that the Tomahawk's technology already is widely available and noting that the loss of several such missiles during the Persian Gulf War is not known to have produced any breakthroughs for Iraq.

But a ranking security official in Islamabad, the Pakistani capital, pointed out that restrictions on technological transfers between the United States and Pakistan have been in effect for nearly a decade. Since 1990, when Washington cut military aid because it believed Pakistan had developed a nuclear bomb, information that the Pentagon might readily provide to another nation would have been harder to come by here, he said.

"It is a gift from the God," the official said. "The country that had denied us all sorts of economic and military assistance has suddenly gifted us the weapon of choice from its arsenal."

He voiced a note of caution, however, saying: "This will definitely enhance our knowledge about the latest missile technology, but how much -- it is too early to predict."

Other sources also acknowledged that they were unlikely to extract enough information from the Tomahawk components to be able to reproduce such a missile. They said, however, that their need for the kind of advanced weaponry found in U.S. arsenals is limited, and that they would be happy for even limited gains in missile technology.

"Pakistan is not the global player," one official said, adding that its defense needs are geared more toward dealing with "its arch-rival that lives next door."

Tensions between Pakistan and neighboring India, with which it has fought three wars in the last 51 years, have been high since both nations tested nuclear devices in May. While their nuclear programs have been the focus of world attention since the tests, the rivals' competition to develop more advanced, longer-range missiles has been almost as intense.

Officials declined to comment on whether Pakistan might share any discoveries with China, a close ally that the United States has repeatedly accused of helping Pakistan with its missile program.

Gen. Jehangir Karamat, the Pakistani army's chief of staff who heads the joint chiefs of staff, is currently touring China. A senior official at army headquarters said today that Karamat has been briefed on the initial reports from Pakistani scientists on the Tomahawk missile. "In view of extremely close ties between the two military services," the official said, he would be surprised if the findings were not discussed with Chinese officials.

U.S. government and private cruise missile experts said that while an intact Tomahawk would be of limited benefit to the Pakistanis, it could be of significant help to the more advanced Chinese military.

Of most immediate concern, said K. Scott McMahon, a national security expert with Pacific-Sierra Research Corp., an Arlington-based defense consultant firm, would be the ability of the Chinese to incorporate the missile's radar image into the air defense systems it sells to such nations as Albania, Iran, North Korea and Pakistan. "It would enable the Chinese to enhance their air defense system against what is arguably the most serious missile threat out there," he said. "The air defense implications for the Chinese are something we have to be seriously concerned about."

Experts said the Chinese have the technological know-how to study and to eventually copy the missile's guidance system, which matches photographic images of a target and surrounding terrain against the actual terrain it flies over.
It also incorporates a satellite-based global positioning system.

The Chinese also could gain useful knowledge from studying the missile's airframe material, electronics, warhead and turbo-fan engine, experts said.

Staff writers Dana Priest and Bradley Graham in Washington contributed to this report.

© Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company

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Postby Dileep » 15 Aug 2005 08:23

Chicom Reing Tomahawk

Reminds me of an old story from Malabar. The Zamorin of Calicut was the monopoly of pepper. The British asked for some seedlings, and the Zamorin had to give it to them. After the guys left with the seedlings, the king mused "They can take the seedlings, but they can't take the monsoon rains ("Thiruvaathira Njattuvela", the 14 day period in the agricultural calender that gives a lot of rain to be precise)

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Postby TSJones » 15 Aug 2005 09:16


However the missile was assembled - the American and the Chinese signed off on the test.


How come I didn't see this, the US and China working together against India? How come I always gotta be the slow one? :(

Raju

Postby Raju » 15 Aug 2005 09:49

Sunil wrote:They are saying it again and again and we are getting mixed up with this bs about range and counter missiles systems - it has imo nothing to do with that.

The Pakistanis are ticked off at the Indian refusal to accomodate cruise missiles in the notification system. The Pakistanis plan to sell that information to people to PRC and the US. However the missile was assembled - the American and the Chinese signed off on the test. The effort here is to lure India into issuing notifications about the cruise missile tests it conducts.

Aroosa Alam and the unnamed Pakistani officials are saying the same thing repeatedly - they want to know when India conducts its ballistic missile tests.

The Russian is right. While China and the US may be willing to see this latest missile test in Pakistan as a carefully orchestrated display aimed at provoking India. The fact of the matter is that *in Pakistan* this test will be seen as Pakistan's entry into the big league.



yes, the 'peanut gallery' theory sounds plausible enough. Though I have my doubts whether that is the only reason. But this mutual missile test notification is a nice trap indeed. Something like notifying the rats when you gonna set the 'rat trap'.

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Postby Bal » 15 Aug 2005 09:55

Have you seen the reaction of the state dept?

http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish ... 002950.php

Washington: Pakistan's first cruise missile test was conducted in a way that was not provocative, a US State Department spokesman said Thursday, although Pakistan did not give advance warning to rival India.

"It's important to us that actions by states on the subcontinent are done in ways that aren't provocative, in ways that aren't threatening. I think that by all accounts that test met that criteria," deputy State Department spokesman Adam Ereli told reporters at a briefing here.


Knowing that these could be used on the American bases in Afghanistan or even pakistan by a jihadi from the paki army? Knowing that these could be sold to NK or Iran?

One explanation is that pakistan was lent a missile - they have none available in stock. That could be considered 'not provocative'.

The other is that there are people out there sh**ting bricks but putting up a brave front. I suspect that it is the former assuming that this administration in its arrogance is not dumb enough to ignore the potential threats.

Something is fishy about the response given that the whole world knows about Pakistan's past missile deals and the editorials asking for more information from AQ Khan continue.
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Postby Singha » 15 Aug 2005 09:57

fwiw rashid qureishi addressing a night meeting in rawalpindi on the eve of aug14 said with the 500km test done, they are developing another model with 1000km range.
I figure they will max out around 1500km which is where the chicoms are currently are at.

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Postby alexis » 15 Aug 2005 11:41

guys,

So its the majority opinion that the tests were orchestrated to push India into a corner by US,China and not an explicit threat to India ?

But even if it is so, how can we be sure that Pak will not get enuf info abt this missile and reverse engineer it?

Anyhow, this missile is inimical to Indian interests.

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Postby Alok_N » 15 Aug 2005 11:56

alexis wrote:
But even if it is so, how can we be sure that Pak will not get enuf info abt this missile and reverse engineer it?



:lol: let's try to keep this discussion on a serious level ... :lol:

paki effort at "reverse engineering" is limited to:

how is to possible to be looking lovingly into my beloved goat's eyes while engaging it from the reverse end?

Raju

Postby Raju » 15 Aug 2005 12:04

May I add more instance of reverse engineering pakis are familiar with:-

Abdul walking in reverse !

Downhill skiing !

etc

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Postby Alok_N » 15 Aug 2005 12:14

not to mention Gola's famous 180 degree turns ... very chic, very reverse ...

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Postby Joype » 15 Aug 2005 14:10

Singha wrote:doesnt the US actually buy most of its imported oil from north sea, canada(athabasca?), mexico, venezuela and nigeria ? I wuz thinkin the EU china and Japan are the biggest buyers of gulf oil.


Independence Day Greetings to all!

Canada, Venezuela and Saudi are the three major countries that exports crude Oil products to U.S.

Statistics are available at American Petroleum Industry website.

http://api-ec.api.org

Click the tab "Idustry Statistics"

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Postby TSJones » 15 Aug 2005 18:20


So its the majority opinion that the tests were orchestrated to push India into a corner by US,China and not an explicit threat to India ?


Naw, it's just sunil's opinion. He thinks everything that happens in or out from Pakistan is directed by the US. Makes him feel better and supports the myth that the Packees are incapable of doing anything on their own.

Pakistan is easy to underestimate because they have been whipped by India so many times but that can be a dangerous proposition over a course of 60 years. Everybody gets lucky once in a while and Pakistan does have relationships with China, N korea and Saudia Arabia as well as the US.

When times get dangerous or frustrating, people look for a godlike power that can be seen as a puppet master arrayed against them. It makes it easier and you don't have to assess one's own mistakes, responsibilities and missed opportunities. There was a time when the US blamed everything on the Soviet Union.

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Postby ldev » 15 Aug 2005 19:46

There is another explanation. The very muted reaction from GOI so far as well as from the US State department suggests that this whole thing could be an orchestrated event to shore up Musharaff's standing which may have been threatened internally i.e. one cruise missile supplied and repainted and fired to demonstrate internally that he is still capable of looking after Paki security after all the rumours of Paki nuclear castration etc.

Raju

Postby Raju » 15 Aug 2005 19:56

GoI these days is an opinionless wonder !

Could be a pointer to the true shape of things

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Postby david_d » 15 Aug 2005 20:03

Alok_N wrote:not to mention Gola's famous 180 degree turns ... very chic, very reverse ...


They are not 180 degree turn--they are more correctly "Ewe Turns" and they make it possible to look into the eyes of the beloved Motorhama Bakri

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Postby P Babu » 15 Aug 2005 20:10

ldev wrote:There is another explanation. The very muted reaction from GOI so far as well as from the US State department suggests that this whole thing could be an orchestrated event to shore up Musharaff's standing which may have been threatened internally i.e. one cruise missile supplied and repainted and fired to demonstrate internally that he is still capable of looking after Paki security after all the rumours of Paki nuclear castration etc.


If that is the case, Mushy would have been personally there at the test site. Not send someone else to steal the thunder.

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Postby Dileep » 15 Aug 2005 20:15

Come on.. Would Mushy dare to show his musharraf there? The damn' thing could blow up. Hell, it would blow up if he is there.

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Postby shiv » 15 Aug 2005 20:32

ldev wrote:There is another explanation. The very muted reaction from GOI so far as well as from the US State department suggests that this whole thing could be an orchestrated event to shore up Musharaff's standing


You may have a point here. It's one thing having a whole lot of weapons. It's another matter altogether to use them to gain some benefit for yourself.

You can brandish them and say yours is bigger - but you use them at your own peril - because you can lose everything.

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Postby ldev » 15 Aug 2005 20:39

P Babu wrote:
ldev wrote:There is another explanation. The very muted reaction from GOI so far as well as from the US State department suggests that this whole thing could be an orchestrated event to shore up Musharaff's standing which may have been threatened internally i.e. one cruise missile supplied and repainted and fired to demonstrate internally that he is still capable of looking after Paki security after all the rumours of Paki nuclear castration etc.


If that is the case, Mushy would have been personally there at the test site. Not send someone else to steal the thunder.


If you watch the video at the unmentionable site, Mushy is very prominent waxing not so eloquently about "terrain hugging" etc. and how Babar is definitely better than Brahmos etc. etc.

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Postby Harish » 15 Aug 2005 20:46

Well, we'll know for sure for sure when TSP begins "serial production" of this missile, in supposedly one months' time. What is worrisome is the possibility that TSP has obtained the missile in numbers, and kept them in storage awaiting a proper occasion to "test" them. And, I hear, the missile's range was deliberately understated. If the design was influenced by Tomahawk, this theory has weight.

There is another explanation. The very muted reaction from GOI so far as well as from the US State department suggests that this whole thing could be an orchestrated event to shore up Musharaff's standing which may have been threatened internally i.e. one cruise missile supplied and repainted and fired to demonstrate internally that he is still capable of looking after Paki security after all the rumours of Paki nuclear castration etc.


That would be risky for Mushy's mush, since the people of pureeland would fry his balls if they didnt see the missiles coming out after say 6 months... Now that gola has publicly committed to "producing" the missile, I think we can safely conclude they have an inventory after all. Lying on such a critical issue will have serious repurcussions for mushy later on; I dont think he will risk it. What is even more worrisome is how unkil can confidently say the missile is not a threat...

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Postby ldev » 15 Aug 2005 21:04

What is even more worrisome is how unkil can confidently say the missile is not a threat...


From the US standpoint, any weapon that uses GPS is not a threat because the US can turn off or degrade GPS signals at any time. Ofcourse once the European system is up and running there could be a problem but the US has threatened to shoot down European satellites that provide any enemy such guidance.

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Postby Singha » 15 Aug 2005 21:08

INS will always work regardless of any offboard jamming bar a EMP hit that fries its electronics. good INS is quite accurate - I believe thats how submarines navigate and GPS cant reach below the water.

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Postby ldev » 15 Aug 2005 21:13

Singha wrote:INS will always work regardless of any offboard jamming bar a EMP hit that fries its electronics. good INS is quite accurate - I believe thats how submarines navigate and GPS cant reach below the water.


But INS will not allow terrain hugging flights. If Mush knew what he was talking about :) he quite clearly said "terrain hugging". If it is INS, then the flight path will have to be set to the highest known hill/mountain en route.

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Postby TSJones » 15 Aug 2005 21:27


But INS will not allow terrain hugging flights. If Mush knew what he was talking about he quite clearly said "terrain hugging". If it is INS, then the flight path will have to be set to the highest known hill/mountain en route.


Well, actually it can. You are right that INS can't make altitude adjustments but other systems can do that for you. I used to fix INS on the a/c I worked on in the Marines. It was just one system among several. Everything was backed up. It was always fun to put some "Kentucky windage" on the INS and see where it ended. When it is working correctly, it is fairly accurate. At least to 19 year old Marines. :) To bomb lofting, brush busting, down in the mud, Marine pilots however, it may have been another thing. Actually, I never heard anybody complain about it.

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Postby AJay » 15 Aug 2005 21:28

A_Gupta wrote:I think it is a safe assumption for Indian planners to assume that Pakistan has the same weapons as China does.


While underetimating the opposition is a grave mistake, overestimating beyond certain critical
level would be as harmful.

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Postby Singha » 15 Aug 2005 21:28

TERCOM using a radar altimeter doesnt need GPS and permits maintaining a set height. even the TFR mode of french Mirage2000N uses that doesnt it ?
digital scene matching also wouldnt need GPS if u can give the missile a good start and initialize its thoughts at the current location.

GPS isnt essential unless u want 3ft accuracy.

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Postby ramana » 15 Aug 2005 21:42

It is the GPS augmentation that gives the Tomahawk its conventional utility. So if this Ba(r)bur(ian) cant have all that then how much utility it has in a conventional role? It is definitely an area weapon of short range.

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Postby appuseth » 15 Aug 2005 21:55

Ramana, GPS was only used in Block 3 of the Tomahawk missile. It improved its accuracy in the final attack, but the missile was still difficult to detect/shoot down even without GPS, because its terrain-hugging flight did not require GPS in the first 2 blocks.

I still think it's very dangerous for Pakistan to have this kind of a missile. The least India should do is to arm itself with a similar terrain-hugging cruise missile. The next thing would be to come up with a system that can detect and shoot down such a missile.

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Postby TSJones » 15 Aug 2005 22:09

Well, terrain hugging is an important factor. Highway in the sky concept goes way back. But, I can assure you that we lost pilots over Vietnam even with INS and tercom. Radar could still pick them up at a certain point (most usally when the plane went to loft the bomb) and blast them.

The thing with a cruise missile is that it presents a tiny radar cross section compared to an airplane. Makes it quite stealthy

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Postby Sunil » 15 Aug 2005 22:21

Hi,

As discussed earlier with Ramana, the presence of Ehsan ul Haq instead of Pervez Musharraf seems to say all sorts of things. All in all I think it marks the rise of Ehsan Ul Haq. We may soon be hosting a "who is Ehsan ul Haq" thread on BRF.

This latest test imo is not a threat to India.

because

1) The Pakistanis do not have a large number of these missiles to be militarily effective.

2) There is no way the missiles can actually be armed with nuclear warheads, even with regular warheads - the possibility of some Jihad inspired yahoo shooting one up Musharraf's tush is quite high. So this missile will never actually be deployed even when it is produced. A few unarmed test samples will be handed to the Pakistan Army units and more show launches will be conducted. Any armed variants will be tested only under the most controlled conditions - the idea of them having 200 of these ready to fire on day 1 of any war with India is absurd.

3) Any strike on an Indian target conventional or otherwise will provoke a disproportionate response.

I stress Pakistan does not need a cruise missile to drop a nuke on India. Any jihadi group could be requested by the Pakistani Army to simply smuggle and detonate a nuclear weapon in an Indian city. This is the reality we have been living with since 1983. This is the part of the story that wasn't told in Ravi Rikhye's book.

The test has been conducted imo with two aims in mind -

A) To restore confidence in the Musharraf regimes ability to defend Pakistan.

B ) To provoke India into expanding the test notification system to include cruise missiles.

TSJ,

So are you seriously trying to tell me that the Pakistanis conduct tests of "nuclear capable" missiles without informing the US and securing its approval? If US-Pak ties are that badly mismanaged then India will have real cause for concern. You may want to re-evaluate your posts. In case you don't actually know that your folks do know when the Pakistanis do such things... well then that is even more cause for concern.. it means one hand is not talking to the other ... now question is which hand holds the hammer... and which one the nail. Very troubling and disturbing.

The real problem is that none of the Islamist troublemakers in Pakistan knows that the US and China have facilitated this test. To them and to their buddies in the Pakistan Army this is merely a result of indigenous Pakistani expertise and by conducting the tests Pakistan has compelled the great powers to agree with its security measures. This will be a psychological boost to the Jihad community in Pakistan and it will strengthen their belief that they can challenge the West.

Your boys are already taking it up the a** in Afghanistan and Iraq. Strengthening Pakistani bellicosity will only make that more painful.
Gee I guess it was real fun watching us and the Russkies get torn to shreds by your Islamist buddies in Pakistan but it aint all that much fun when they do it you is it?.. so for once pay heed to the Russian - the successful test of the Pakistani cruise missile changes Pakistan's position on the global nuclear scene and marks its entry into a bigger league. That is going to have all sorts of consequences.

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Postby TSJones » 15 Aug 2005 22:39


So are you seriously trying to tell me that the Pakistanis conduct tests of "nuclear capable" missiles without informing the US and securing its approval?


Yes.

If US-Pak ties are that badly mismanaged then India will have real cause for concern. You may want to re-evaluate your posts.

Why? I've maintained all along that Pakistan has not relinquished the control of its nukes. I know how the US government works. It is not all knowing, all controlling, sees all, string pulling the world, that everyone seems to think it is.

In some areas, the US is re-active, not proactive. The mere fact that the US was surpised by India's testing its nukes proves my point. I'll remind you that the BJP made it nuke weapons policy public when it was elected. What was the surprise? Or how about that Bush thought India would supply troops to Iraq? Ot that Pakistan sold nuke labaoratory stuff to Libya? Duh?

The state department is a civil service filled with a bunch of test taking government employees that like to travel. Where's the self initiative? None there that I can see. No out of the box thinkers there. How could they be if they won't even take the time and bother to read the goddamn newspapers of the country in question?

Now when the danger has them by the balls, the US government can be quite proactive and, at times, supremely cruel.

I have to tell you that not a small amount of Americans see India and Pakistan as same-same. That where the problem is and that is why US policy for Pakistan is the way it is today. But seeing America behind every Packee action won't solve the problem.

And no, our guys aren't taking it up the a$$ in Afghanistan and Iraq. Our guys are slaughtering them. Our guys are doing their jobs and doing it quite well, thank you.

Dileep
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Postby Dileep » 15 Aug 2005 22:53

Tech update for couple of posts above:

1. Yes, INS is pretty accurate. The ALCM in 1984 reportedly had 0.6nm drift per hour. So, at the end of the flight of the range of 500km, it would drift almost half a nautical mile. But that clearly is not sufficient for anything useful at all.

2. That is exactly the reason TERCON was brought in. It is NOT PRIMARILY a terrain hugging technique. It is used to identify the prominent features in the terrain below and correct the error of INS. It is kind of an emulation of aircraft navigation. You go by your INS to get an approximate location, and then use a local reference (VOR or visual) to get exact location.

3. DSMAC is digial scene matching, that gives better reliability in identifying the correction. The TERCON uses a single dimension data, while DSMAc is two dimensional. So it has better chance of getting an exact location.

4. Both the TERCON and DSMAC inputs can be used by an alternate process to get closer terrain hugging, but that is a very much advanced technique.

The Nai IMHO has nothing of these sorts.

JE Menon
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Postby JE Menon » 15 Aug 2005 22:55

TSJ,

The state department response is the clearest indicator tha Washington was informed about the CM test, IMHO. We can pretty much take it for granted. As for China, they pretty much gave the starter kit for the CM to the Paks so that can be assumed as well. On US-China co-ordination, I am noncommittal.

It appears that, for the present at least, the CM was more of a technology demonstrator than anything else... They may not have more than a couple in hand, and I seriously doubt they have the capability to fit a nuclear warhead on the thing. So I would agree with Sunil that it does not represent a real threat, at present. But it sends a very bad signal to the other neighbours of Pakistan and I wonder why the US does not mind that - I suppose it weighed the pros and cons and decided that the pros in the Iranian context were worth it.

In general, I agree with you about the SD/USG being not quite the omniscient, omnipresent, omnipotent force - but on the other hand, I would be extremely wary about underestimating its sheer doggedness once it gets focused on a bone; and it has been focused on the Paks for a couple of years now.

So, I have to come back to Sunil's concern - WTF did this cruise missile test go ahead? It can mean the following: Washington is loosening the line on Musharraf, either because (a) it has no choice in light of an increasingly aggressive posture in bilateral ties on his part or (b) we are seeing the rope being loosened towards him to string himself up with.

I believe the latter may well be the case. Take the signals being sent to Shaukat Aziz, i.e. post in the World Bank; the tough anti-Mush comments coming out of the MMA leaders, and even Chaudhury Shujaat Hussein who has distanced himself from the general on the foreign students expulsion issue... all indicate that Mush's position is becoming tenuous.

Ehsan is not an inappropriate candidate as these things go. But Musharraf may not venture quietly into the good night. There is room for some noise to be created on the Indo-Pak border or elsewhere through the jihadi instrument. Violence against India is the best unifier of the Pak political forces behind the dicktator du jour, after all.

PM Singh's comment about a "hard" response should the violence continue may be seen in this context.

NRao
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Postby NRao » 15 Aug 2005 23:46

The state department response is the clearest indicator tha Washington was informed about the CM test, IMHO.


I wa going to say the same. The casualness, I thought, gave it away - specially considering that the topic is more than just a thorn in the relation between TSP and India.

If State did not know, then the spokeman is unaware of regional sensitivities, and, IMHO, State should be taken too seriously moving forward.

BTW, from what TSJ stated about test taking Staters, I will start praying alot more every PM. God bless DD and their boys in harms way.

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Postby Umrao » 15 Aug 2005 23:54

SD response is the same as when the M-9 and M-11 missiles were in storage during the early 1990s, which PRC shipped to sargodha in anticipation of Prithvi being successfully commissioned into army units.

SD is full of tubelights who wouldnt know even if a JDAM went off right under their butt.


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