Cruise Missile Test in Pakistan: News and Discussions

Uday
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Postby Uday » 16 Aug 2005 12:51

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Postby Singha » 16 Aug 2005 12:52

methinks the UPA govt has no intention of concluding any deal so they are drawing up all these new transparency norms, cancelling contract with denel, asked mod to quit the qatari deal etc.

btw is the price negotiation committe under MOD staffed with Armed forces officers on deputation or civilian IAS officers who dont know any armed forces stuff ?

this generalist IAF babugiri has got to end. I suggest scrap the entire IAS system and let the states appoint from their own cadres or ask from a general surplus pool if any shortage. This "IAS=incorruptible, steel backbone of the hukumat" thing is so laughable now...many are just lining pockets and trying for postings in delhi positioning themselves for lucrative secy level posts and private sector. a stint in the UN is also good.

decline in discretionary powers is always good.

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Postby ldev » 16 Aug 2005 19:25

The Pak cruise missile may be a low tech paint job- but 2 things are clear:

a) China has no regard for proliferation controls.

b)The PAF got a big breather.


JCage,

In a time of war, 30 of these cruise missiles, armed with conventional warheads, even if not very accurate, landing in major population centers such as Delhi or Mumbai will cause widespread civilian panic forcing the IAF to divert resources (AWACS and fighters) to defend against them.
Additionally there will always be the fear that one or two of them are nuclear tipped and there will be more civilian panic. As you correctly said, the PAF got a big breather via this force multiplier.

China has absolutely no regard for any controls. Look at the pattern.

India does Pokharan 2, hey presto, a few days later, the Chinese bomb is taken out of the basement, dusted out and Pakistan chants equal=equal.

India sweats and works out the bugs in the Brahmos, staying painstakingly within the MTCR regime of 300 kms, doing numerous tests etc. - Babar appears magically with no sweat, a range of 500 kms going on to 1500 kms.

Lets see. India is working on the ATV, struggling to get a workable reactor going and to integrate missiles into it. I believe that within the first few months of the launch of the first ATV, there will be a Chinese nuclear submarine or two supplied to Pakistan with either ballistic or Babar cruise missiles, sitting of India's eastern and western coasts.

The Pakistanis have ensured that the perceived costs to the US for intervention are high i.e. look at TSJ's post. So long as the Pakis do the bare minimum to keep the US happy on its *War on Terror*, the US has no incentive to take on a whole heap of new trouble with Pakistan and China. Now, if a country such as Taiwan is threatened by China, the US will send a few aircraft carrier groups to patrol the Taiwan straits. But hey, India is not a *poodle*, right?

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Re: Paki Cruise Missile Test

Postby Sunil » 16 Aug 2005 19:44

Hi Nav,

Nav wrote: Where it really concerns me is if the missile is ever used on a dam such as Bhakra nagal.


If Pakistan hits the Bhakra Nangal Dam - we will hit Mangla and Tarbela. That will be the end of Pakistan - the drought will kill millions of Pakistanis and the Pakistanis will have to negotiate for more water from the indus or watch as we dump toxic waste into all the canals leading to Pakistan. All the cruise missiles in the world will not save them from the destruction that will surely follow.

Hi TSJ,

That kind of talk is completely unacceptable to me. Pakistan is Uncle Sam's pet dog. You make darn sure that they don't bark out of turn and if they do bark out of turn you punish them for that. Don't sell them arms that is the only kind of punishment they understand.

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Postby Sunil » 16 Aug 2005 20:00

Hi Uday,

If I was the US I would be more keen to use an existing fellow as a stalking horse. I think everyone subconsciously uses the "Ayub-Yahya" model or the "Zia-Beg" model but I feel Ehsan is closer to Akhtar in terms of job description so I am proposing the stalking horse hypothesis for his role. I think a thread titled "So who is Ehsan ul Haq" should be started.

The US had stuck a deal with Pakistan before but the deal did not hold and there is no guarentee that it will hold. All the USG actions are based on managing the risks in that agreement - all I am saying is that every missile test that these Pakistanis conduct - although staged completely with American and Chinese support eventually feeds a sense of confidence in all Pakistanis including the Jihadis. The Jihadis interpret the tests as a measure of Pakistan's national prowess - they simply do not grasp that without Chinese help and American approval the Pakistanis can do nothing. So they take each test as a reason to go on believing that they can actuallly defeat America - the way they defeated the USSR.

That translates into Jihadi enthusiasm for attacks against the US. Ayman is right - you don't have to hit the US directly. If you hit Afghanistan you hit their biggest heroin suppliers and you hit Iraq you hit their leverage point in the oil market. Without a fine control on the oil and heroin trade the US control over its capital flows will be erratic and that will cause a severe economic meltdown in the US. The situation will be similar to that of Imperial China at the time of the Opium Wars - wealth will simply flow out of the US in an uncontrolled manner.

It is fantastically idiotic to underestimate the after effects of allowing the Pakistanis to regain control over Afghanistan. It is phenomenally stupid to believe that they will not avenge the death of the tens of thousands of Pakistani HuM and HuJI regulars in US bombing raids. A single welt in the bulk heroin supply and drug wars will erupt on the streets of the US with considerable intensity - making a walk in Fallujah seem attractive.

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Re: Paki Cruise Missile Test

Postby John_Doe » 16 Aug 2005 21:07

Sunil wrote:
If Pakistan hits the Bhakra Nangal Dam - we will hit Mangla and Tarbela. That will be the end of Pakistan - the drought will kill millions of Pakistanis and the Pakistanis will have to negotiate for more water from the indus or watch as we dump toxic waste into all the canals leading to Pakistan. All the cruise missiles in the world will not save them from the destruction that will surely follow.


With the current bunch of p*ssies in power and another bunch of p*ssies in opposition - Who is going to give the command to retaliate on this scale against Pakistan and cause so much death and devastation?

To our political folks, their primary concern is the Muslim votebank. Even though 95% of Muslims give two hoots about Pakistan - the political class is under the misguided notion that Muslims deeply care for Pakistan as a "brother Muslim country"

Raju

Postby Raju » 16 Aug 2005 21:10

well it doesn't require the genius or courage of the highest order to understand the concept of retaliation when attacked.

I hope!

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Postby david_d » 16 Aug 2005 21:31

ldev,

PRC is merely using Pakistan to signal India. Iran, KSA, and others may be signals to the US and Israel. The US signals back with a 7-strong CVN exercise in the South China Sea and perhaps even the defence pact with India/and the nuke arrangement.

IMHO India needs to respond to PRC not bakistan. We have to get the Taiwan thing off dead center--they want 'recognition' we cannot give them that with seriously escalating. But, there may be some other departure point that signals PRC without forcing them into a corner. Note the one Percval Fernandes is carrying on in ToI about Taiwan.

We should aim for the same level of Taiwan 'recognition' that the US , Japan and SKorea afford them. This where creative thinking such as using the opposition (BJP) comes in--maybe ABV or JS can be used to effect by having them visit Taiwan.

We also need to think about Brahmos to Vietnam--I don't think the US would object if they were land based.

Also, a little more 'honesty'/officially fueled speculation about Agni 3's range (all of PRC) would also be a signal.

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Re: Paki Cruise Missile Test

Postby Sunil » 16 Aug 2005 21:59

John_Doe wrote:With the current bunch of p*ssies in power and another bunch of p*ssies in opposition - Who is going to give the command to retaliate on this scale against Pakistan and cause so much death and devastation?


IMO the Indian political class and its will to use force should not underestimated. The politics of votebanks dictates force be reciprocated. To understand this one has to do the political calculation properly. An attack on Bhakra Nangal would cause hundreds of thousand of casualties on the Indian side. The pressure to act will be enormous given the likely communal consequences of inaction. Any Indians that support Pakistan are quite likely to revise their views after such an event so I think the country will be quite united.

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Postby Rangudu » 16 Aug 2005 22:08

People need only look at the unity we had during Kargil and after the 12/13 atack to understand how GoI reacts to provocations. If TSP launches say 10 missiles at say Ambala or Nagrota, GoI will respond disproportionately by lauching say dozens of missiles at 5 or 6 TSP bases. By firing a conventional missile first, TSP will lose escalation dominance because the mere fact that India got hit with a few missiles will give India all the justification it needs to punish TSP to point that would otherwise have been unacceptable to TSP's leadership.

Think about it. If LeT attacks in say Calcutta and many people die and in retaliation India launches attacks on say TSP temp bases near Rawalkote, world reaction may infact be neutral or sympathetic to TSP. Whereas if we get hit by missiles, it will give us all the excuse needed to unleash 10 times more on TSP thereby accomplishing what we probably want in the first place. We can shrug off losses of 4-5 army bases. Can TSP live with severe damage to 50% or more of its bases?

This is exactly why TSP is highly unlikely to use these cruise missiles as conventional assets.

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Postby Umrao » 16 Aug 2005 22:16

Kargil is very typical incursion, creep, detect, restraint and controll escalate, type of 'War Like' Situation.

Where as a CM attack on any kind is not like the above, There some 'shock and awe;.

The nearest anology would be Hijack of IA, for which our chai biscoot wallas had to wait for long even before the butlers got the hot water going.

Our most strident LKg turned out to be a fax machine watcher....

The stakes of the game have been raised , just like the time when in March 1998 Gauri was launched while Bill Richardson was in India.

Let us be realistic even if CM attack happen and the babus decide to do sometghing the international pressure not to do something would be way too high, and our own narayan murthy likes will start showing the opportunity costs that may be lost...

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Postby ldev » 16 Aug 2005 22:30

david_d,

You are correct. China has to understand that there will be consequences for its actions which are deterimental to India's security. China only understands the language of brute force and terror. They want to be the dominant power in the region and eventually the world and they will do anything to crush India especially as India becomes stronger and more dynamic, the alarm bells will go off ever more loudly in Beijing.

Rangudu,

The Paki cruise missile IMO is a weapon of civilian terror. It is probably at this stage not accurate enought to be used against military targets using conventional warheads. But it will be used by the Pakis to spread widespread civilian terror in India from Ludhiana in the north all the way as far south as range permits. It will bring psychological pressure on GOI as Indians stay in their homes and not venture out of fear. Similar to the Scud launches on Israel during the first gulf war. Even if India inflicts greater damage on Pakistani military assets, the Pakistani leadership will have brought the war (albeit a non nuclear war) front and square to the average Indian household, something which has not happened in the past. It will force GOI to divert precious IAF AWACS and fighter resources to hunt for these launchers, pretty similar to what the USAF had to do in Iraq in 1991 in response to the Scud launches. And lets face it, in terms of publicity what will result in more sensatonal TV news coverage , some destroyed Pakistani military bases or bomb craters in the middle of Delhi, Mumbai, Ludhiana, Pune etc.
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Postby Rangudu » 16 Aug 2005 22:30

Jumrao garu,

I'm afraid you have let your skepticism to overflow here. I'm 400% :lol: sure that a CM attack on India will elicit a disproportionately severe response from Delhi.

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Postby Rudradev » 16 Aug 2005 23:11

ldev wrote:
The Paki cruise missile IMO is a weapon of civilian terror. It is probably at this stage not accurate enought to be used against military targets using conventional warheads. But it will be used by the Pakis to spread widespread civilian terror in India from Ludhiana in the north all the way as far south as range permits. It will bring psychological pressure on GOI as Indians stay in their homes and not venture out of fear. Similar to the Scud launches on Israel during the first gulf war. Even if India inflicts greater damage on Pakistani military assets, the Pakistani leadership will have brought the war (albeit a non nuclear war) front and square to the average Indian household, something which has not happened in the past. It will force GOI to divert precious IAF AWACS and fighter resources to hunt for these launchers, pretty similar to what the USAF had to do in Iraq in 1991 in response to the Scud launches. And lets face it, in terms of publicity what will result in more sensatonal TV news coverage , some destroyed Pakistani military bases or bomb craters in the middle of Delhi, Mumbai, Ludhiana, Pune etc.


Ldev,

The thing is, the Pakis have already foreclosed on the option of using their CM in this fashion by letting it slip that Babur is "nuclear capable" (I think somebody else made a similar point earlier in the discussion).

If the thing had not been nuclear capable the scenarios you envision, of missile terror on Indian civilian targets could have come to pass. However, since it has been declared as such, India has no option but to assume that when one is incoming, it is carrying a nuclear warhead. The Pakis know what that means... if they launch a Babur at India, they can be 400% certain that whatever flies back at them will have nuclear warheads.

JDAM, as many garus have mentioned, is far more of a threat to us than anything this missile represents-- because it will confer deniability that Babur will not, whether it is armed with a nuclear warhead or otherwise.

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Postby Umrao » 16 Aug 2005 23:19

R guru>> COnsider the response of HMG to the terror bombing.
It is Proven that TSp trained the terrorists and they have attacked LOndinistan. Inspite of losses due to death, the additional costs of cleansing LOndinstan, the continous expenditures to mobilize policing resources at short notice etc have not forced HMG to attack the source of the trouble.

You think GOI will attack TSP because of couple of CM attacks?
Unless it is Nuke CM which Pakis at this time dont have the capacity to mate with (also read Sunils uvacha), the possible CM attack will be from ISI based rogue operation with conventional munitions which is akin to bombs going off in LOndon.

In nut shell there will be very muted response after downing lot of Chai and Chand biscoot.

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Postby ldev » 16 Aug 2005 23:20

Rudradev,

The problem is that the radar cross section of these cruise missiles is very small and that is why they are difficult to detect and shoot down. At a minimum one would need AWACS along the western border to detect them - maybe aerostat radars where AWACS are not available. I dont think conventional ground based radars will be able to track one. The point I am trying to make is that the first one that slips through will come thorough undetected and we will only know about it when it explodes in whichever city it does. That is all that is necessary for the *nuclear sting* to be taken out of the cruise missile. Thereafter, a precedent will be established that they are not carrying nuclear warheads and India will be forced to respond conventionally and try and swat the others like flies in flight. This is unlike a ballistic missile whose launch and arcing flight are tracked and where warning about launch and impact locations may be available as well as the bare minutes necessary to make a determination as to whether to launch on warning.

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Postby ramana » 16 Aug 2005 23:38

Umaro jaan, There is a difference between "terrorists being trained in TSP" and "TSP trained the terrorists". TH eformer gives palusible deniability to TSP just as those camps for paint ball games in the US in the 80s and the latter removes the ambiguity from TSP.
As the CM was unveiled (or deHijabed) in TSP Army presence there is no plausible deniablity. I addition they have announced its nuke capable. Along with the first use doctrine they have it leaves little margin for the Indians when land targets are attacked.

Seeng all this the Ba(r)bar(ian) missile is of use only on themselves.

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Postby david_d » 16 Aug 2005 23:46

Rudradev,

Excellent point about the nuclear capable 'Babur' --the bakis have indeed shot their mouth off and foreclosed any operational use. On the JDAM front', plausible deniability is not an option. I think the slight doctrinal change about use of atomic weapons (including radiological) against India or its forces whether or not on Indian soil carries a not so veiled threat. BTW, if one does occur in India, the global reaction will be to nuke the bakis because it means the Jihadis can do it anywhere and tsp has crossed a redline

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Postby Dileep » 16 Aug 2005 23:53

I don't agree the "you have to deploy AWACS to protect civilians" argument. This is not America, where every TDH in the media whine about protecting civys. I would bet that all effort will go into massive retaliation, not into preventing more attacks. The attitude will be: "we have 1+billion more people. who cares?" And the public will alss demand revenge, not [b]protection[/].

IMO, these are the scenarios and responses.

1. Nuke tipped CM? This will not happen. If it does, Pakistan won't exist
2. Conventional CM attack from Puki forces: Massive retaliation using Prithvi, Brahmos and air raids, and full scale war.
3. JDAM explosion. If it is nuclear or huge HE, the origin will be traced and war would result.
4. Rogue CM firing with subsequent denial and apology from Pukies. Maybe no retaliation, but any recurence will result in retaliation.
5. A gradual escalation resulting in war: Well, anything is possible. We are discussing sudden unprovocated attacks don't we?

Now, think more about scenario 5. We are behaving like the old cold war parties. We assume that one fine day a missile will fly in and explode. I wonder did ANY WAR in history started that way? Throw me a bone here people, because my limited memory doesn't show one. That is NOT gonna happen. If a war happens, it will only gradually escalate.

And in such a war, the CM could be a force multiplier. But what the hell, the dongless can do equal or more harm right?

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Postby ldev » 17 Aug 2005 00:04

I don't agree the "you have to deploy AWACS to protect civilians" argument. This is not America, where every TDH in the media whine about protecting civys. I would bet that all effort will go into massive retaliation, not into preventing more attacks. The attitude will be: "we have 1+billion more people. who cares?" And the public will alss demand revenge, not [b]protection[/].


Dileep,

I hope you are right. Do you remember the IA hijacking to Kandahar and what the relatives did? They literally forced GOI to give in to the hijackers demands and release those terrorists whom JS personally delivered to the Taliban. While in past wars Indians have been very patriotic, wars have always been something fought on the distant borders by the army. If Indians see war on their streets and their houses and offices, I hope they react with the same degree of fortitude or will they be like the relatives of the IA hijacked passengers.

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Postby Rangudu » 17 Aug 2005 00:05

Jumrao garu,

I'm afraid I have to totally disagree with you. A terrorist attack simply cannot be compared with a missile attack. If that is what you think of India then nothing can change your opinion other than India firing a nuclear missile after every small terrorist attack. That is simply not going to happen.

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Postby david_d » 17 Aug 2005 00:15

Dileep,

Your point #4. "Rogue CM attack" is not any different from a rogue HATF attack. 'Sorry' will not cut it for no retaliation. No Indian Govt is going to survive if does not retaliate in this event. If bakis want to play with big boys' toys, you need to be responsible and accountable like a big boy.

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Postby Syed Yusuf » 17 Aug 2005 00:30

i believe babar is more of missle destined to be used by navy and airfoce than army. i believe that it will have a verion of navy soon and then for airforce. i believe it will be a nuclear tipped more so than conventional.

i have read many pages of discussion on this forum. i believe there is a hate and dislike syndrome against pakistan which i can see on the pakistani defence sites as well for india.

now here i am offering you answers to the questions for the seekers of pakistani information. i have some knowledge. and if you ask me right question and i have the right answer i will share with you the facts. pLease no flame war or trash talking.

thanks.

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Postby Sunil » 17 Aug 2005 00:31

They can't launch that thing during a conventional escalation. We will simply not know if it is conventional or nuclear. We will be forced to move assuming that it is nuclear - I need not outline the consequences of that.

They can't use the cruise missile to do something that can be done with an LeT cell because there is no plausible deniability.

They can't deploy the missile in sufficient numbers in a battlefield - they have severe command and control issues so all the missiles have to be sequestered in one place until the imminent outbreak of hostilities.

That leaves the test versions which could be surreptitiously launched against India without warning. Here we have two options - either give in to the Pakistani demands to include the cruise missile testing into the notification treaty or refuse them.

I am in favor of refusing them again - given how successful the earlier refusal has been at exposing what their sugar daddies are likely to permit them.

In the words of Gabbar Singh in Sholay... "Bahut kateeli nachaniyaa hain.."

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Postby Sunil » 17 Aug 2005 00:33

Guys absolutely no flaming.

Syed Yusuf,

The Army in Pakistan is everything. Why would they share the power of a nuclear armed missile with the navy?

Yes other countries have a cruise missile in their navy or airforce. But these countries have specifically stated that nuclear weapons will not be deployed on them.

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Postby ldev » 17 Aug 2005 00:33

If there are 5 explosions one morning in 5 different Indian cities, what inference will most people draw from it - Probably terrorism. The chances are that 5 cruise missiles will be able to get through undetected without anybody even realizing that they were cruise missiles. It will take some time maybe hours maybe days to even figure out that these were not bombs but missiles which came through. Even then that knowledge will be tightly controlled by GOI. Will they take it public? What will their stance be? To take retaliatory action against Pakistan, will GOI do it unilaterally or will they try and bring the *international community* on board. How will this *international community* react? Like they did when India gave proof about the Mumbai blasts?

Maybe Jumrao is right. Maybe many cups of chai and many biscoots will be had by the time all this is deliberated and who knows what action if any will be taken.

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Postby Syed Yusuf » 17 Aug 2005 00:37

sunil you are absolutely right. pakistan intend to use babar as a cruise missile tipped with nuclear weapon.

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Postby Sam CS » 17 Aug 2005 00:42

david_d wrote:BTW, if one does occur in India, the global reaction will be to nuke the bakis because it means the Jihadis can do it anywhere and tsp has crossed a redline


TSP would have crossed no redline.

The JDAM will certainly be one exploded by indigenous Kashmiri freedom fighters using material procured from loose Russian jewels with help from their fellow Chechnyan freedom fighters. Putin will be condemned for not stopping it at his borders. India will be asked to stay restrained and also talk to the alienated population. Life will go on everywhere else as usual.

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Postby AJay » 17 Aug 2005 00:44

Syed Yusuf wrote:sunil you are absolutely right. pakistan intend to use babar as a cruise missile tipped with nuclear weapon.


But is it Pakistani Army or Pakistani AF and Navy exclusively?

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Postby Syed Yusuf » 17 Aug 2005 00:45

[quote="Sunil"][b]Guys absolutely no flaming.[/b]

Syed Yusuf,

The Army in Pakistan is everything. Why would they share the power of a nuclear armed missile with the navy?

Yes other countries have a cruise missile in their navy or airforce. But these countries have specifically stated that nuclear weapons will not be deployed on them.[/quote]

hi sunil,

this perception is wrong. well it is true to an extent but then again pakistn ahas merged its tri services into one command when it comes to war fighting capabilities. look at the academies of army the airforce and the navy in Pakistan. they have cadets from all three services in all three academies. since army is so big almost 75 % of the armed forces of Pakistan they have more visibility. for imposing marshal law in early 80% airforce and navy totally deny to go teh army way since then airforce and navy are kept away from the army's internal involvements. teh reason airforce and navy decline to join zia's army regime is because of the strength problem. they cannot sreatch too thin.

the reason pakistan wants cruise missile is to have asubmarine launched nuclear attack capability. since the diamaeter of babur is as such that it could be launced form augusta 90B submarines gives pakistan and sea based launched capability. pakistan military budegt does not permit to have a huge stock pile of cruise missile for conevntional attack. infect i do nto see them affording it. they might have few coneventional CM around an dthat is it.

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Postby Syed Yusuf » 17 Aug 2005 00:51

[quote="AJay"]
But is it Pakistani Army or Pakistani AF and Navy exclusively?[/quote]

Hi Ajay,

well since pakistan has created a unified streatigic command that control all the nuclear weapons either it is in the airforce or in the navy it doe snot matter who commands it. right now a squadron of airforce specially trained of delivering that bad bomb ( nuke ) is under that command. in near future i will see atleast 2 augusta 90B submarines falling into that command too. the head of this command is roughly quivalent to a corps commander in pakistan. the commander might be from any services but so far it had 2 commanders and both were from Army.

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Postby Sam CS » 17 Aug 2005 00:56

Syed Yusuf wrote:the reason pakistan wants cruise missile is to have asubmarine launched nuclear attack capability. since the diamaeter of babur is as such that it could be launced form augusta 90B submarines gives pakistan and sea based launched capability.


Then this is a H&D (Remove their vulnerability) kind of weapon? Having a couple of Agostas with a dozen Barbers each should make TSP feel secure about the survivability of its nuke deterrent.

Is that why Unkil wink-wink-nod-nodded at it?

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Postby ldev » 17 Aug 2005 01:00

Clearly these will be new smaller, lighter warheads supplied by China to Pakistan to fit the Babar to fit in the Augustas. The Chinese nuclear proliferation continues unabashed and unabated.

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Postby Syed Yusuf » 17 Aug 2005 01:01

[quote="Sam CS"][quote="Syed Yusuf"]the reason pakistan wants cruise missile is to have asubmarine launched nuclear attack capability. since the diamaeter of babur is as such that it could be launced form augusta 90B submarines gives pakistan and sea based launched capability. [/quote]

Then this is a H&D (Remove their vulnerability) kind of weapon? Having a couple of Agostas with a dozen Barbers each should make TSP feel secure about the survivability of its nuke deterrent.

Is that why Unkil wink-wink-nod-nodded at it?[/quote]

i think you are kinda right. long before nuke tests pakistan always wanted to have a submarine attack capability ( nuke ). this just teh start. If i am right ( whihc i think i am ) pakistan will continue to go for submarine attack capability infect pakistan ask usa to provide them the technology for SSBN so they can put all of their nukes in submarines. totally off shore. liek i said pakistan might have a few non nuclear babar on land but mainly their purpose is to provide third attack ( nuke ) capability. atleast that is the perceived vision.

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Postby P Babu » 17 Aug 2005 01:01

Syed Yusuf wrote:the reason pakistan wants cruise missile is to have asubmarine launched nuclear attack capability. since the diamaeter of babur is as such that it could be launced form augusta 90B submarines gives pakistan and sea based launched capability.


So this is all about second strike capability? Even if we extinguish TSP, they have few subs floating around with nook tips to attack India?

ldev
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Postby ldev » 17 Aug 2005 01:05

P Babu wrote:
Syed Yusuf wrote:the reason pakistan wants cruise missile is to have asubmarine launched nuclear attack capability. since the diamaeter of babur is as such that it could be launced form augusta 90B submarines gives pakistan and sea based launched capability.


So this is all about second strike capability? Even if we extinguish TSP, they have few subs floating around with nook tips to attack India?


So long as the cruise missiles cannot be detected, it is a nuclear first strike and a nuclear second strike, a civilian terror and a terrorism weapon.

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Postby Syed Yusuf » 17 Aug 2005 01:08

[quote="P Babu"][quote="Syed Yusuf"]the reason pakistan wants cruise missile is to have asubmarine launched nuclear attack capability. since the diamaeter of babur is as such that it could be launced form augusta 90B submarines gives pakistan and sea based launched capability.[/quote]

So this is all about second strike capability? Even if we extinguish TSP, they have few subs floating around with nook tips to attack India?[/quote]

P babu,

i hope we never go to nuke war for that sake no more wars. because in wars people, innocent people dies. those sitting in their secure bunkers always survive. if history is any judge, there is not wars b/w any nuclear powers. pakistan is isno position to indule in any more wars with any body any more. what they want to saef guard is that of their foreign policy. having one nuke or having 10 does not make a difference. you or me togather are not sure how many nukes does any of these countries have. it is not cricket where one team score more runs wins.

so having said that pakistan forces understand that india is superior inconcevntional as well as nuclear weapons. india has a superiority of numbers. the only thing planners in islamabad wants to ensure that we do not get fallen bahind to level like isreal and syria or isreal and lebanon or isreal and any of its neighbour. that is the strategy they are working on. i hop eit helps.

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Postby Syed Yusuf » 17 Aug 2005 01:14

[quote="ldev"][quote="P Babu"][quote="Syed Yusuf"]the reason pakistan wants cruise missile is to have asubmarine launched nuclear attack capability. since the diamaeter of babur is as such that it could be launced form augusta 90B submarines gives pakistan and sea based launched capability.[/quote]

So this is all about second strike capability? Even if we extinguish TSP, they have few subs floating around with nook tips to attack India?[/quote]

So long as the cruise missiles cannot be detected, it is a nuclear first strike and a nuclear second strike, a civilian terror and a terrorism weapon.[/quote]

cruise missile can be detected but the detection/ reaction time is too small. it is our irony to live in a neighbour hood where three counries posses nuclear weapon and share borders. all of these countries have the will to use them. now that is more dangerious than any thing else.

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Postby TSJones » 17 Aug 2005 01:17

Syed Yusuf wrote:
Sam CS wrote:
Syed Yusuf wrote:the reason pakistan wants cruise missile is to have asubmarine launched nuclear attack capability. since the diamaeter of babur is as such that it could be launced form augusta 90B submarines gives pakistan and sea based launched capability.


Then this is a H&D (Remove their vulnerability) kind of weapon? Having a couple of Agostas with a dozen Barbers each should make TSP feel secure about the survivability of its nuke deterrent.

Is that why Unkil wink-wink-nod-nodded at it?


i think you are kinda right. long before nuke tests pakistan always wanted to have a submarine attack capability ( nuke ). this just teh start. If i am right ( whihc i think i am ) pakistan will continue to go for submarine attack capability infect pakistan ask usa to provide them the technology for SSBN so they can put all of their nukes in submarines. totally off shore. liek i said pakistan might have a few non nuclear babar on land but mainly their purpose is to provide third attack ( nuke ) capability. atleast that is the perceived vision.


Who else has deployed submarine cruise missiles other than the US, Britain and Russia? I'm not sure China has done so yet. If they have, then they have shown their hand. It was extremely unwise for China to give Pakistan air and submarine launchable cruise missiles. It takes an extremely technical setup to launch from underwater. It took the US many years to develop it.

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Postby Syed Yusuf » 17 Aug 2005 01:23

[quote="TSJones"]

Who else has deployed submarine cruise missiles other than the US, Britain and Russia? I'm not sure China has done so yet. If they have, then they have shown their hand. It was extremely unwise for China to give Pakistan air and submarine launchable cruise missiles. It takes an extremely technical setup to launch from underwater. It took the US many years to develop it.[/quote]


i am not sure where but i can tell that much that this is the direction they are working on. you have definately missed isreal from the above list. like i said i will tell what i know.


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