Cruise Missile Test in Pakistan: News and Discussions

Sunil
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Postby Sunil » 17 Aug 2005 03:07

D_Prem,

You're doing it again. Think before you post.

We're screwed if Pakis go on to installing their new Cruise missiles onto the Agostas:


Why are we screwed? How are the Pakistanis going to install the cruise missiles on their Agostas? How long will it take them to design and build an indigenous launcher that is submersible?

Are we any more screwed today than that fateful day in 1983 when the Pakistanis told us that they are willing to put their nuclear bomb on a bullock cart and drive it into Delhi, Madras etc... What use are ABMs and Jammers against that?

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Postby eklavya » 17 Aug 2005 03:07

TSJones wrote:Can we please stick to cruise missiles?


This is about cruise missiles in the strategy forum context. Its critical to understand whether the fellow dangling his cruise missile likes his virgins on earth or the ones promised in heaven.

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Postby eklavya » 17 Aug 2005 03:10

Acharya wrote:
RaviBg wrote:India has NFU policy. So, India won't retaliate till a nuke lands on Indian soil. But after that, TSP's total annihilation is definitely assured. So, are they going to use the SLCM for a 2nd strike on India?
.


They hope to negotiate themselves out of total annihilation using this weapon system. Fundamentally it is more of a survival weapon but it is also a first strike weapon for an unstable country.


There will be no negotiations. There will be no one in Pakistan left to negotiate with. Forget this Babur, its bull-shit.

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Postby Dileep » 17 Aug 2005 03:16

Was this quote actually written by someone on this thread

Sure. see post #16 and #256. I couldn't trace the R-77 part though.

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Postby putnanja » 17 Aug 2005 03:16

Acharya wrote:
RaviBg wrote:India has NFU policy. So, India won't retaliate till a nuke lands on Indian soil. But after that, TSP's total annihilation is definitely assured. So, are they going to use the SLCM for a 2nd strike on India?
.


They hope to negotiate themselves out of total annihilation using this weapon system. Fundamentally it is more of a survival weapon but it is also a first strike weapon for an unstable country.


Negotiate or threaten India with even more strikes if it retaliates? Tough luck pakis, those agostas are always going to be tracked, and will be the first to be taken out. If the entire command and control system of TSP breaks down when India retaliates, how is the paki submarine going to know when to launch its missiles?

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Postby svinayak » 17 Aug 2005 03:16

eklavya wrote:
There will be no negotiations. There will be no one in Pakistan left to negotiate with. Forget this Babur, its bull-shit.


They hope to survive in a submarine if they are still floating.

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Postby Sunil » 17 Aug 2005 03:24

Syed Yusuf,

The current state of the Pakistani arsenal per the assurances given by Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai to a number of western nuclear experts is in a "demated condition" i.e. the warhead and the missile are stored in separate locations and the warhead is under guard (with entry and exit control measures and with PALS on the weapon itself). All this is public domain information released by Americans like David Albright to US Congressional committees. It is only these measures that are keeping the weaponized part of Pakistan's fissile material inventory from falling into the hands of suicidal Jihadi terrorists.

You cannot have a demated weapon inside a SLCM assembly. The way the SLCM works is that the entire assembly comes packed from the port. The missile is armed electronically. You cannot mate a missile with a warhead under water.

If you look carefully at India's missile inventory - the only "nuclear capable" platform that India can mount on a submarine is the Prithvi. Long before an underwater launcher was developed for the Prithvi - a strenuous effort was made at the every level to convey to Pakistan and the world that the Prithvi was no longer India's nuclear delivery platform and would only be armed with conventional warheads. As yet there are no reports of a Prithvi/Dhanush deployment on any Indian naval platform.

If Pakistan decides suddenly to start reneging on its promises on keeping its nuclear weapons in a demated state then that will propel the entire region into a completely new level of strategic confrontation.

I cannot stress this enough - that is a step Pakistan cannot afford to take.

The Pakistan Army will continue to be seen as the primary entity responsible for the upkeep of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and it will be held responsible for any failures.

TSJ,

the Babur is a strategic weapon - Pakistan


Where is the "i told you so!" icon?
Last edited by Sunil on 17 Aug 2005 03:45, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby eklavya » 17 Aug 2005 03:28

Acharya wrote:
eklavya wrote:
There will be no negotiations. There will be no one in Pakistan left to negotiate with. Forget this Babur, its bull-shit.


They hope to survive in a submarine if they are still floating.


Acharya, once the nuclear threshold is crossed, its crossed. Pak knows what crossing it entails i.e. total self destruction. Won't be much of a homecoming for the sub crew (assuming this a SLBM, which it isn't) even if they do squeeeze out one or two more.

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Postby svinayak » 17 Aug 2005 03:32

eklavya wrote:Acharya, once the nuclear threshold is crossed, its crossed. Pak knows what crossing it entails i.e. total self destruction. Won't be much of a homecoming for the sub crew (assuming this a SLBM, which it isn't) even if they do squeeeze out one or two more.


It does not matter if there is no home coming. But they would like the satisfaction of going down in flames. The satisfaction of retaliation is very important before reaching jannat.

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Postby Rangudu » 17 Aug 2005 03:38

Acharya wrote: before reaching jannat.
Or jahannum :lol:

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Postby Sunil » 17 Aug 2005 03:43

Where is that post Hali is quoting? I can't find it. Can someone point out the post to me please.

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Postby TSJones » 17 Aug 2005 03:44


Where is the "i told you so!" icon?


To all:

Let's not let things get out of hand, shall we? Obviously, Pakistan has made an error but they certainly can correct it. A little breathing room and I'm sure they will see the error, OK? In fact, I know they will. These misunderstandings are always fun to cuss and discuss, but a lot of it will be handled backstage. After all, we can't let *anything* divert Pakistan's attention from their problem of terrorist activity. Already several attempts have been made on Musharraf's life. What good are strategic weapons when Musharaff is in such danger?

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Postby Rangudu » 17 Aug 2005 03:46

Sunil wrote:Where is that post Hali is quoting? I can't find it. Can someone point out the post to me please.


Hali usually pulls out "facts" from his Khali khopri, so don't be shocked if he made this one up as well. That guy is an epitome of failure. He used to be a soap opera actor on PTV :lol: and when that career failed, he took up plagiarizing as a hobby that turned into his new career. He comes from the long line of Pakliars that produced Bakwasi Quereshi among other luminaries.

A total chump.

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Postby Rangudu » 17 Aug 2005 03:47

D_Prem,

There you go again...

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Postby Sunil » 17 Aug 2005 03:51

Okay deep breath taken - in a calm voice I ask a simple question.

Does this talk of a nuclear tipped cruise missile in the hands of the Pakistan Navy imply that the Pakistanis are now mating their warheads on to their weapons?

This needs to be cleared up here. If Hali can read BR so can the rest of you - speak up fellas we'd like some answers.

Dekho aap logon ko New York mey Sahabji ney samjhaya tha.. bilkul koi naya faaltu raada nahi chahiye.. ab yeh natak bandh karo aur seedhey seedhey bolo kya ho raha hain.
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Postby svinayak » 17 Aug 2005 03:52

RaviBg wrote:Negotiate or threaten India with even more strikes if it retaliates? Tough luck pakis, those agostas are always going to be tracked, and will be the first to be taken out. If the entire command and control system of TSP breaks down when India retaliates, how is the paki submarine going to know when to launch its missiles?


Even one submarine to survive is good enough. An unstable country does not need to know when to launch its missiles.

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Postby TSJones » 17 Aug 2005 03:57

Does this talk of a nuclear tipped cruise missile in the hands of the Pakistan Navy imply that the Pakistanis are now mating their warheads on to their weapons?

This needs to be cleared up here. If Hali can read BR so can the rest of you - speak up fellas we'd like some answers.


Nobody is going to nuclear tip anything in Pakistan. Unless they plan on doing some cow tipping late at night.

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Postby Sunil » 17 Aug 2005 03:58

Okay TSJ thanks, but you said earlier you can't prevent them from doing things in their defence right? Now I want to hear it from one of their mouths and someone better tell the Chinese about it.

Hello Hali,

Tere PAF College Sargodha waale seniors ko pooch kya chal raha hain aur phir Nation mey article likh explaining to the rest of us. Confusion is not good between friends, between enemies it is even worse.

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Postby Dileep » 17 Aug 2005 04:02

Sunil,

Ref Hai's article.

Look up post No 16 by Arun_S on 13rd aug, page 1 on this thread. And also post No 256 by ldev on 17th Aug on page 7.

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Postby Sohum » 17 Aug 2005 04:08


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Postby Sam CS » 17 Aug 2005 04:15



Looks like the Ding Dong also has problems with foam falling off the fuel tanks. Mighty good that did to NASHA. :rotfl: 8)

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Postby D_Prem » 17 Aug 2005 04:21

Why are we screwed? How are the Pakistanis going to install the cruise missiles on their Agostas? How long will it take them to design and build an indigenous launcher that is submersible?


Open ended questions galore! Looks like your in a habit of doing so...first on Siachen and now cruise missiles. Btw, you also have this trend of downplaying threats....

lets not talk about Agosta's themselves.......instead lets talk about the entire PN......now how hard would it be to retrofit the surface fleet with LACM's? ...with 500 km range......and Babur-2 in development as per Quereshi sahab (with 1000 km range) .....with a nuclear warhead...well out of our reach .... jammers are useless....and well abms forget about them.....mass production beginning shortly (I think in a month or two time) then what are we going to do?

for the sake of Agosta's ....read this wonderful article, hopefully you will get something out of it:
http://www.howardbloom.net/Wakeup_or_Shutdown2.htm

Each Agosta 90B is able to carry sixteen Harpoon Stand-Off Land Attack cruise missiles. According to the Pakistani Navy Captain Iftikhar Riaz Qureshi, who commanded both of these subs in their test phases, Pakistan purchased its Agosta 90Bs to provide itself with "second strike nuclear capability." Qureshi's words imply that from day one, Pakistan's intention has been to tip these missiles with atomic warheads.

Now with the question.......how long? ....well definitely less time then it takes to actually build a cruise missile......so put a parameter of about 3 years MAX if Pakistan decides to do it on themselves.
Highly unlikely scenario.....so lets put in some more variables, HELP from China.....and possible HELP from France the original builder of the subs:
and thus the integration time is severlely reduced......to about 1 year TOPS.


Are we any more screwed today than that fateful day in 1983 when the Pakistanis told us that they are willing to put their nuclear bomb on a bullock cart and drive it into Delhi, Madras etc... What use are ABMs and Jammers against that?

........how bout we 'think' about this too....huh? .....ok my answer: "what rubbish is that???"

On a side note.....whatever happened to Dipesh? Did you get him kicked out? I thought you were getting me kicked out cause I DISAGREED ...in under 24 hours??? .....whatever happened to that bud? :rotfl:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And for all others.....an article from Missile threat:
Russia Pechora Defense Passes Test Against Cruise Missiles
http://www.missilethreat.com/news/200507151112.html

how do you think this will fare against Babur?

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Postby Sam CS » 17 Aug 2005 04:25

D_Prem wrote:
Why? This merely forces India to fight only for limited objectives. Worst case loss for TSP is a couple of batallions of Flight Infantry followed by press conference with Unkil.


What makes you think that we will only fight for limited objectives?........MORE importantly what makes think that Pakistan will only fight a limited war?


The last time they fought for a 1000 years, the war was over in 14 days. From then on forward, Flight Infantries and Muj onlee.

The onlee ulimited war they are capable of fighting is the War of Terrrrrrrr. Someone else foots the bill, of course.

Any attack this time will only unleash a spiralling chain of events wherein the nuclear trigger will be pressed - at least from the Paki side.

A couple of Infantry batallions will definetly go.....and so will the lives of another hundreds of million people....Unkil will probably come in after all is over.....to airlift food and medicine like they did in Berlin.


We're all cowering in our Pink boots :evil:

I think ya got that part in bold right. Have you read the Red Dragon something novel? In that, the Gola of the day nukes an Indian tank column inside his own borders and begs "That doesn't count. I only nuked my own country". I think that is the most likely first use scenario to expect.

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Postby Rangudu » 17 Aug 2005 04:30

I think D_Prem is a pal of pillai's...

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Postby Sunil » 17 Aug 2005 04:31

Folks keep the random chitchat down!

It helps to understand the basics of deterrence between nuclear adversaries.

1) Deterence works only as long as there is enough time for the decision makers to react rationally. That means that if the delivery system is aircraft then there have to be radars. If there are missiles then there has to be a way of seeing the missiles and their launch platforms. In the US-Soviet case there was an addition layer of space due to the large distances involved. Radars could be used to detect launches. This created enough space for rational action and negotiation.

2) In the India Pak context there is no way to have space for negotiation /rational action due to the small distances involved. This means that you have to keep the warheads demated from the missiles and the missile caddys have to be kept in the open so that the adversary can read your intentions.

3) In a failing state like Pakistan - there is no guarentee who can gain access to a ready-to-fire platform. In our context the mating of warheads with the missiles constitutes a direct indication of an intention to carry out a nuclear attack. For Americans the equivalent would be if the Russians or the Chinese began fueling up their ICBMs.

4) A Pakistani SLCM on an Agosta is simply too destablizing in the India-Pakistan context. The testing of the Babur cannot be allowed to continue if the Pakistani aim is to start mating their missiles with their warheads. If the Pakistanis continue on this part - then a LoW philosophy would lead to Assured Destruction of Pakistan.

Dileep thanks.

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Postby Dileep » 17 Aug 2005 04:40

Isn't it plausible that this too is a blackmail attempt by the sadr-e-blackmail? To get more F-sola etc?

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Postby Sunil » 17 Aug 2005 04:42

D_Prem,

It really helps to think before you post. PN surface vessels are not a threat. I have read the Howard Bloom article a year ago - and that was not possible due to a lack of technology on the Pakistani side. Then there is the "no mating" rule to consider. The Pakistanis do not want India mating its warheads with its missiles - they will simply not be able to manage that situation internally in Pakistan. Even S. M. Hali should be able to understand this.

No rational actor would encourage Pakistan to start mating warheads to missiles. This would have all sorts of nasty implications for the PRC and the Americans. The French too would not do that for reasons that should be plenty obvious now.

On a side note.....whatever happened to Dipesh? Did you get him kicked out? I thought you were getting me kicked out cause I DISAGREED ...in under 24 hours??? .....whatever happened to that bud? :rotfl:


Regarding Dipesh - kindly email me using the feedback form and I will respond to this part of your post.

My approach as I stated earlier was to beat the s*it out of you on the forum and make you produce something more meaningful then the rubbish you were spouting on that thread. I have more to gain by doing that because ultimately you will get off your rear and do some reading instead of randomly f*rting off.. and from the look of the work you did on Google Maps I think my approach is paying off. So if need be I am going to thrash you here too so that you actually do some research before you post next time. Who knows a few more times we do this dance and you will become a valued contributor to BR. Inshallah...

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Postby D_Prem » 17 Aug 2005 04:47

Sam CS:

Had your post been even a bit more insightful I might have decided to post a reply specifically to what you said....alas.....your in denial of the reality - as are so many individuals on BR.

Agreed Pakistan is not hell bent on fighting a war with India but they will fight with whatever they can muster up IF India goes for a limited strike etc etc.....bottomline is its only going to escalate things....tell me this has anyone ever fought a limited strike war without esacalating things?

Moreover, wars are never gonna be fought saying " yo we are fightin you in Kashmir so only attack in Kashmir...nowhere else" Plans are built on worst case scenario.....not best case scenario.

But a smart war will be fought once IFF we only think that a direct attack on a part of Pakistan would be viewed by Pakistan as an attack on PAKISTAN .....not POK only ....not Punjab....not NWFP....and whatever else are their provinces.

We're all cowering in our Pink boots Evil or Very Mad

I think ya got that part in bold right. Have you read the Red Dragon something novel? In that, the Gola of the day nukes an Indian tank column inside his own borders and begs "That doesn't count. I only nuked my own country". I think that is the most likely first use scenario to expect.

Amazing logic......GOLD STAR FOR U. Jeez...why are you ridiculing them in such a manner.....lets face it Pakistan by any means is a dangerous customer and by the looks of they are becoming a headache day by day.
Last edited by D_Prem on 17 Aug 2005 04:52, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Rangudu » 17 Aug 2005 04:52

Sunil,

If TSP for whatever reason makes it clear that it has or will deploy SLBMs or SLCMs then China has crossed the line with us. Here is the deal - the reason TSP wants SLCMs is not for a guaranteed first strike (which they can easily get by producing BMs in numbers) but for dissuading India's retalation that would follow a TSPian first strike.

I have a feeling that feelers from official circles will have to be sent out to ensure that our DND gives India the flexibility to strike back at China should a nuclear scenario occur with TSP.

Deploying SLBM/SLCM is such a sensitive topic that we have refrained from even talking about the Sagarika. Now all that stuff will have to come out an we will be forced to change our posture.

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Postby D_Prem » 17 Aug 2005 04:58

Rangudu,

bud did I hurt you when I criticized you to be on topic the other day? If it is so then you can get back at me in a more 'decent' manner..... cant u? But I guess taking pot shots at me this way really go to satisfy your ego?

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Postby Sam CS » 17 Aug 2005 04:58

D_Prem wrote:Sam CS:
Amazing logic......GOLD STAR FOR U. Jeez...why are you ridiculing them in such a manner.....lets face it Pakistan by any means is a dangerous customer and by the looks of they are becoming a headache day by day.


Whatever <end of thread>

Let us bring this back to the Barber missile.

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Postby svinayak » 17 Aug 2005 04:58

Rangudu wrote: Here is the deal - the reason TSP wants SLCMs is not for a guaranteed first strike but for dissuading India's retalation that would follow a TSPian first strike.



Is it possible that this logic is due to the past experience with the Indian leadership which TSP generals have faced.

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Postby D_Prem » 17 Aug 2005 05:01

Sam CS,

Whatever <end of thread>
Let us bring this back to the Barber missile.


Thank you. Speaking of Babur now.....I'd like to hear your opinion on what you think is the best way to counter it....cause when it comes to Babur (or for that matter Ghenghis Khan :) thats I all I care about).

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Postby Rangudu » 17 Aug 2005 05:01

D_Prem,

I have nothing to say to you. Kindly refrain from directing any posts at me for they will be ignored with the contempt they deserve.

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Postby D_Prem » 17 Aug 2005 05:03

D_Prem,

I have nothing to say to you. Kindly refrain from directing any posts at me for they will be ignored with the contempt they deserve.


..... :) Didnt know my dose would have an effect so easily. Ok then I'll forget about what I just said. Coming back to Babur.....as I said to Sam....what do you think is the best way to counter it?

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Postby Sam CS » 17 Aug 2005 05:04

Rangudu wrote:I have a feeling that feelers from official circles will have to be sent out to ensure that our DND gives India the flexibility to strike back at China should a nuclear scenario occur with TSP.


Is this winnable? Isn't a 3-front war their fantasy since 1971?

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Postby ldev » 17 Aug 2005 05:07

Dileep wrote:Isn't it plausible that this too is a blackmail attempt by the sadr-e-blackmail? To get more F-sola etc?


A definite possibility. Did you notice that Syed agreed whole heartedly with TSJ that nukes are *death* in the hands of third world countries. Maybe Pakistan can be persuaded to *change its mind* if all 75 F16s are delivered in say the next 12 months and maybe another $10B can also be somehow arranged by the US and maybe they can also get the Patriot 3 system etc. etc. Get the drift........ Wonder for how long any new arrangement arrived at will last before the stakes at the table are raised yet again?

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Postby Harry » 17 Aug 2005 05:12

Syed Yusuf wrote:
Harry wrote:
The missile does not fit the 533 mm tubes of the Agosta.


Harry,

the diameter of babar is as such that it can be launched from augusta tubes.



Oh...K.....now please tell us the diameter of the missile? :roll:

Don't forget to add the thickness of the torpedo/assembly inside which the missile will be stored.

It wasn't too long ago when some of you guys and your media claimed that the Hatf and Ghauri would soon be sub-borne.

pretty soon you will hear that pakistan test fires a new cruse missile ( mat be babar 2 or some thing) with the range of 1000km. that will only be a PR statement. Accordign to my information it will be this version that will be deployed in augusta's. The incorporation will take approximately 3 to 4 years. that include production of enough missiles.


Oh puleez. Just imagine the PR value of a 1000 km ranged missile or test. Pakistan of all nations, is not hiding anything. We'd never hear the end of it. I might as well say that the Brahmos's actual range is 2000 km but India is too modest to reveal it.

We dont know the kind of profile the Baabur flies either. A longer range may be possible if it flies at a coupla thousand feet assuming that 500 km is the range for a Tomahawk-like profile. Remember that the Brahmos flies at ~Mach 3 in the boundary layer (10-15 feet ASL) for a distance that is 3-4 times the terminal seeker range of contemporary AsHMs and still acheives 300 km. No Indian is jumping up and down at the fact that a much higher range is possible with the Brahmos flying slightly slower and higher. A simple hi-hi attack profile itself will yeild greater range.

Sacrificing additional torpedoes for cruise missiles will be one big mistake for the Agosta. The latter are the PN's only chance against the IN's surface fleet. The PN's own surface fleet is puny. A relatively higher flying, subsonic Babur will be easy meat for everything from the SA-N-1 Goa to the Barak.
Last edited by Harry on 17 Aug 2005 05:18, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Dileep » 17 Aug 2005 05:17

Just wondering: The Nai flying over sea at 500 ft would be plainly visible to shipboard/airborne radars ain't it?

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Postby D_Prem » 17 Aug 2005 05:21

Sunil,

as a patriot all I care about is that (literally) "Babur" doesnt become "Ghenghis Kahn" for India.....and so again as I have asked all others ...what do you think is the best way to counter this missile.....and for once lets factor in that in the next couple of years Pakistan integrates Babur into its navy as well.....and that Babur-2 is round the corner or is already inducted.


My approach as I stated earlier was to beat the s*it out of you on the forum and make you produce something more meaningful then the rubbish you were spouting on that thread.

hah!.....fliiping on what u said earllier.....wasnt it you who said "these guys have a use....they can be kicked out at will" I knew you were a faker from the start. [/quote]

I have more to gain by doing that because ultimately you will get off your rear and do some reading instead of randomly f*rting off.. and from the look of the work you did on Google Maps I think my approach is paying off.

What complex......I did the maps for you!!......haha.....ok very well if that makes your ego any more inflatable then I did. But dont be under the wrong impression, cause I did them for the sake of BR members. Trust me even if you had told me to f*art on you I'd have not done that....cause I'd rather do that on my own damn will.

So if need be I am going to thrash you here too so that you actually do some research before you post next time. Who knows a few more times we do this dance and you will become a valued contributor to BR. Inshallah...
Btw, this aint no boxing match that you gonna thrash me....so lets drop that. Al starfurallah.....and then again which one of your posts has been researched....mayb only in lala land .....works for some but not for me .... and stop using this idiotic logic cause most member see right through it. Al Hamduilah

I wish to stop this duel, it only wastes my time..... I gotta post more, so bud if you wanna then we can easily drop it here and now. Inshallah you will comply.......ok then shabba kher.


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