Cruise Missile Test in Pakistan: News and Discussions

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 13 Aug 2005 03:35

And the generalASSimo claims it to be superior to Brahmos. So WHAT?

Well, he claimed that the Al-Khalid was superior to the Arjun and this caused the Indian army to schedule tests. Perhaps he is hoping for similar reactions now?
His gobar has been quite successful in the past.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 13 Aug 2005 03:38

Leonard wrote: That would WORK only for STATIC targets ....!!!

Well that constitutes 98% of the priority targets. IIRC no country uses CM for hitting moving target.

If they plan to attack Mobile Strike Columns, RAPIDs, etc etc they do need REAL-TIME Sat info.

You use Drones for FAC for the prupose of aming long range artillary or ground support aircrafts. CM is too big a hammer to swat little flies below.

What about Battle Ships, Subs to DDG, etc etc --- these need Real-Time Stuff

Yes large naval targets that are moving one can hit with CM but large and slow sub-sonic CM (like Tomahawk) stand little change against short range CM defense. OTOH for a CM or Ramjet powered CM the navel target engagemetn is simpler with use of terminal hmoing radars, that show target distinctly free of land clutter.

Note ---> Most MIL units are in Hardened Shelters --- > Only Civilian, and Industrial Targets would be HVT., for using the JIHADI Doctrine.

Think about Radards, Ammo dumps, rail-road, army logics build up area, some command center? They are not hidden and mostly visible form afar.

JCage · Post by **JCage** » 13 Aug 2005 03:50

Gerard wrote:
And the generalASSimo claims it to be superior to Brahmos. So WHAT?
Well, he claimed that the Al-Khalid was superior to the Arjun and this caused the Indian army to schedule tests. Perhaps he is hoping for similar reactions now?
His gobar has been quite successful in the past.

Thats what the media would have us believe. The Arjun tests were scheduled earlier itself since the Army was chary of OFB Avadhi doing a perfect job the first time around. The DRDO design has been accepted, trialled etc, but the Army feels that Avadhi is overloaded with T-series work and may not do a perfect job.
The tests were actually to be of a squadrons worth, but Avadhi delivered only 5 Arjuns by then, so Medak has also been roped in.

D_Prem · Post by **D_Prem** » 13 Aug 2005 04:15

Ok guys I know very little about what happens after a missile is shot down.

So I am gonna present a scenario to you ....
1) lets say in the near future India buys S-400/Arrow -2/PAC-3 to fend off the Paki Short Ranged and IRBM's.... a war like situation comes about when PA uses its Gauri/Shaheens on us (with a nuclear warhead) .....and our ABM's successfully destroy the missiles ....in that case is it possible that the warhead would still explode?

2) ....also if Cruise missiles are used tipped with N-warhead.....and they are destroyed....what is the chance a warhead would explode over head?

3) Moreover, there has been a lot of speculation about India's ABM capability....but very little about actually jamming cruise/IRB/ICB missiles. Jamming their systems even before they actually take to the air.

Here's a link I found which describes such jammers:
http://esc.hanscom.af.mil/esc-pa/the%20 ... 005-14.htm

.....and finally say if India acutally embarks upon developing such sophisticated systems .....what would be the timeframe for their completion. Theres a lot of speculation about India becoming a major software superpower......how would that level of experitise suit us in our defence needs? .....certainly this is an area where we have a decisive edge over the Pakis and Chinks

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 13 Aug 2005 04:38

ramana wrote:R, This is quite perplexing. What is the role and mission for this vehicle given that TSP has a first strike doctrine? Both the US and FSU had IRBM treaty which included denuclearizing the cruise missiles. Hence its clear that an incoming C/M from either is not a nuke. This is one reason for the non-emergence of Lakshya based C/M and the limiting of Brahmos to sea based platforms. Whats the point of the TSP bombast that it can carry any payload? Has TSP finally scored self goal?

Ramana,

This is intended as an answer to India's attempts to construct a missile shield. That is the only purpose for Babur that makes sense given that TSP has publicly said that the missile can be nuclear tipped.

After that statement and TSP's first strike posture, Babur cannot be used as a conventional missile unless TSP wants to see itself appear as a fluorescent green lantern on a satellite map. Once India detects the missile, it cannot but assume its nuclear and prepare the set action, namely the Agni-ization of urban TSP. So all those thinking of conventional uses of this dingdong can worry about something else. Just leave it to the wet dreams of TSP teenage deaf and dumbers.

Also I do not think that this is an own goal by TSP but rather a calculated statement aimed at an internal audience. For Mush, reassuriing his base about nuclear delivery capability is vital. Should TSP's ability to deliver a nuclear payload inside India come under a cloud, like it did with Indian BMD plans, it will be deathknell for the ruler under which this happens. Loss of H&D will be humilating.

The ability to use an LACM as an artillery asset is therefore much less important important than the need to protect the Mushtush.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 13 Aug 2005 04:42

Harry wrote:Arun, should'nt it be possible to easily reverse engineer a target drone like the Chukar into a cruise missile? This is what Israel did with the Northrop Chukar-I IAF and got the Delilah. With the Chukar-III, you could acheive something between 600 and 1000 km. The IN and IAF should still operate Chukar-IIs. (looks very similar to the Tomahawk)

I agree. Chukar-III uses and engine with a thrust of 135 Kg, and range of 2000Km. OTOH Tomahawk engines thrust is 270 Kg IIRC. I would agrgue that Chukar's engine could be used to power an under-rated Tamahawak istyl Ba..bur. BUT even to do that Pakistan on its own does not have the capablity to system integrate much knowhow for control system, guidence and sensors. Forget about engine metullergy. And of course forget about using anything from crashed Tomahawak.

So that leads to Samar Mubarakmand who is seen in the photo and claimed father of this project. Those who recall Mubarakmand, he is the logistic project maanger to get Chinese weapons into Pakistan with custom paintwork done by indigineous pakitanis. This is true for both getting Chinese M11 missile and calling it Shaeen and Chinese Nuclear warheads that were tested in in hurry as Chagai-2 after AQ Khan's BUM (made of U-235) fizzed. This is Mubarakmand's current shipping project from China.

Again in these photos one see Chairman of Pakistan's Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Ehsan-ul-Haq. Why not Mushy? From reports looks like General Ehsan-ul-Haq has created his own constitutuncy in Jihadi's, ISI, USA.

But then why test now?

Clearly it has more to do with local Puki Politics than anything else. Interestingly this happens when Mushurraf is on his knees in the media over Puki involvemment in London bombing, Egypt bombing, Ayodhya attack, escated terrorism in Kashmir, US forces in Afganistan chasing and killing terrorists on Puki soil, Maulana Fazl-ur Rahman threateing to expose & spill the beans. With General Ehsan-ul-Haq creating his own power center, Mushy's grip in power is eroding. Add to that US State deptt giving a clean chit to the Puki Baa..bur test indicateds hand in glove approval, to pump up Mushy's and awaam's moral. But then why does Mushy boast of missile capable of nuclear payload?

This missile clearly cant be useful against India given all the technical support and sophisticaltion required. It can't be armed with Nukes because of meaning role. So in its current form all it could be used for it against Waziristan, and Unkil already knows it can't carry Nukes (For it has taken the marbels away).

I sense either Mushy is close to end of rope gasping for every trick in the bag to keep awaam by his side, or a very sinsiter Chinese move to show a thumb to USA by explicit show of Chinese cruise missile in Puki stable.

Ani · Post by **Ani** » 13 Aug 2005 04:45

How dangerous is this cruise missile? Does India need a tomahawk equivalent? How hard is it to detect a cruise missile? Can the cruise missile be shot down? Has a cruise missile ever been shot down?

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 13 Aug 2005 04:55

Hmmm.. thought about something.

Uncle sam seems awfully quiet about this and musharraf is going to town telling everyone how babur is missile capable. Shaukat sultan made it a point to let everyone know that the test was conducted without notifying India as treaty does not require it.

Chinese base in coco is. was incap. due to Tsunami and removal of Khin Nyint was a setback to China in Burma. *IF* lets say that the base at Coco Is is no longer operational then China would like to have some way to find out if India is testing brahmos or not. I expect that every Brahmos test attracts a huge peanut gallery of American and Chinese viewers.

Soo... China-US gives Mush go ahead to pull something that was given to him a long time ago and to test it with "nuclear capable" tag. The nuclear capable tag is sufficient to keep India's interest (and NDTV will ask all sorts of nuclear capable questions to "experts") and soon pressure will build to do something that will make sure some "rogue" commander in Pakistan does not launch this at India so there will have to be a mutual test notification system. Ofcourse unintended side benifit of this is that Uncle Sam and China will know when we are testing Brahmos and so peanut gallery can assemble with no delay.

Leonard - your point (f) how does musharraf make sure that some corps commander doesn't point this at him is the dead giveaway here.

I want to tell everybody - this is not an India specfic missile - it is a Wazirisitan and Afghanistan specific missiles. President Karzai.. quake in your boots!

Sam CS · Post by **Sam CS** » 13 Aug 2005 05:00

Rangudu wrote:[Also I do not think that this is an own goal by TSP but rather a calculated statement aimed at an internal audience. For Mush, reassuriing his base about nuclear delivery capability is vital.

Part of this could just be habit. Somewhat like the game where you read the Fortune cookie fortune and add "in bed" to it

Everything TSP tests has to be nuke capable.

In May 98, CSPAN gave a lot of coverage to the TSP Amby who went around saying that even India's Nag is nuke capable

Ani · Post by **Ani** » 13 Aug 2005 05:37

The ‘me too’ missile tests in both countries over the last two decades have primarily been for surface-launched ballistic missiles—India’s Agni series against Pakistan’s Hatf intermediate munitions programme. Reluctant to make too direct a comparison, the DRDO official said that BrahMos, with a comparatively shorter range of about 300 km, was a supersonic cruise missile, travelling at 2.8 Mach, allowing it to reach targets faster and penetrate missile defence shields with greater success than slower munitions like the Hatf-VII series.

Read this at:
http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story ... t_id=76114

Agni III to be test fired at the end of this year.

Do cruise missiles act as Anti ship missiles?

Aitareyan · Post by **Aitareyan** » 13 Aug 2005 05:46

This is probably one of those "For Laughs" tests carried out once in a while by the tinpots of Pakistan army. Neither Pakistan nor a primitive China for that matter possesses the technology to generate an effective 500-km cruise missile. The damn thing is probably a 50-km rocket of some sort, carrying a token warhead.

However I agree with other posters - the timing and circumstances of the test appear odd/intriguing/amusing. Please continue the discussion so we may gain further insight into the workings of the wheat-and-meat-fed Pakistani military brain.

Once again:

Apologies - I could not stop laughing when I read this "news".

Dileep · Post by **Dileep** » 13 Aug 2005 06:14

Do cruise missiles act as Anti ship missiles?

My dear friend, give us all a favour will ya? Go read at least the info pages on this site before asking this. I read your claim that you are too lazy to find the right thread on the LCA thread. I beg your pardon, but maybe you got into the wrong place here. Did you consider yahoo groups?

Ani · Post by **Ani** » 13 Aug 2005 06:27

Hey, u are right, my apologies. I am an amateur. But I am trying my best to learn. But one thing I find is that no one comes to a conclusion, they don't say good or bad, Yes or No. Anyway, excuse me. Carry on with the discussion.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 13 Aug 2005 06:35

Ani wrote:The ‘me too’ missile tests in both countries

Ani - if you are Indian and you are concerned about how India gets "used" and accused in the media, I would request you not to use terms like "me too missile tests by BOTH countries"

If you have observed the Indian missile program (which you may not have done, judging from your post) you will find that there is nothing "me too" about the Indian tests. It is another matter that Pakistanis with their deep need to maintain honor tend to do copycat tests.

Unfortunately this tends to get us labelled along with Pakistan as needing to do tit for tat tests. That is patently false and patently unfair to India. The sooner educated Indians figure this out, the better it will be.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 Aug 2005 06:41

Ani

The ‘me too’ missile tests in both countries over the last two decades

Can you please explain that ?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 13 Aug 2005 06:51

Folks - if I may be allowed to stand back and look at a broader area than the details of this particular missile - one thing is obvious. Any "technology" gradually leaks to areas that are inimical to your interests. That is a given. Today Pakistan has cruise missiles and tomorrow Pak willl have nuke tipped artillery. You can be sure of that.

I believe that a response to this has to go far beyond a mere tit for tat "What shall we do about this cruise missile". Like I said - cruise missile means nuke tipped artillery and SLBM tomorrow.

Any fool can wield a weapon - even Pakistan. The important thing is to make it dangerous for him to use that weapon.

In the case of Pakistan I believe that the core interests of the Pakistani ruling etablishment need to be targeted specifically. In addition to military targets - civilian houses of the military commanders and the top leadership of Pakistan need to be programmed in so that they suffer personally in the event of a war.

Note that the "Geneva convention" was made by European nations in which there was ahistory of nonarchs fightiong monarchs. The monarchs did not want their asses touched - nor dod they want to run out of serfs to do the fighting. So they had this "convention>

Things are different in the case of Pakistan. We need satellite surveillance to take out oone military tyarget and two or three houses or estates of the Pakistani establishment with each strike.

They will of course do the same to us - and I am sure it will cheer Pakistan to know that India has more targets than they have missiles, and that there are very very few "leaders estates" that will make a difference to India.

You can expect Pakistan to nuke all Indian major cities. That is OK. One nuke on any Indian target should really be the trigger for wiping out allof Pakistan's cities. The Hindu has many lives - as many lives as he has Gods.

So let Pakistan arm itself some more.

Dileep · Post by **Dileep** » 13 Aug 2005 07:04

The thing we overlook is that a maruti 800, rolls royce and a ferrari all are called CAR. You saw a so called CM, but what drives it is what is important.

I would imagine the software required to do intelligent terrain following (like the TERCOM and DSMAC of Tomahawk) would take a huge amount of development. OTOH the software required to fly a multi waypoing inertial/GPS guided path would be pretty simple. The software for terrain hugging based on a TF radar would come in between, closer to the latter. In all cases, you can claim it to be a CM, terrain hugging and all kinds of crap. I don't think Chicom has the capability to do the first. I don't think even we have it either.

It is conceivable that the Barber would be of minimal capaility with multi waypoint and terrain following radar. That makes it practically useless against India. Maybe it is good for hitting targets in the desert flatlands, but it will not be good for hilly terrain.

If you consider the terrain following control, it would be simple for flatter terrain, but will become tricky for hilly ones. You will need a lot of testing and simulation to expand the envelope. It takes a lot of time.

Bottom line: Right now the Nai (I officially christen it the Nai and add to the BR acronyms) is just a showpiece, something Musharaff want to show off like the manhood of an exhibitionist. It doesn't have capability to do pretty much anything, other than fly like an arrow and hit something in its line of flight. and hell, it is not even aimed at us.

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 13 Aug 2005 07:50

Apna mahan padosi nuke nanga hai tho ye pataka kisliye hai?

This missile is only for internal constipation

AshishN · Post by **AshishN** » 13 Aug 2005 08:03

Folks: Ani was quoting IE.

Ani: Next time use a

or

next to these words in IE/TOI/OtherDDM...

pillai · Post by **pillai** » 13 Aug 2005 08:16

shiv wrote:You can expect Pakistan to nuke all Indian major cities. That is OK. One nuke on any Indian target should really be the trigger for wiping out allof Pakistan's cities. The Hindu has many lives - as many lives as he has Gods.

So let Pakistan arm itself some more.

A bit nihilistic, there Shiv sahib. I get scared when pillars of strength start talking like that.

But as someone pointed out earlier, the most interesting reaction to this episode has been that of the US. Basically a shrug. That means that from the US POV, this was a non -event. Since we have been observing a convergence of US and Indian viewpoints lately, does this mean that the paki missile test was a non-event for India also?? I am no "US based south asia expert" but thats how it looks to me.

And what could be the worst case outcome of Pakis possesing CMs?? All those "possible" scenarios of trim, proper, brave (why of course) and highly computer literate Indian jwans, over-running Paki troglodytes, who sit around with their thumbs up their behinds, eating biryani, will have to be pushed back a few decades. Thats all.

But as they say some times, hope springs eternal, slow and steady wins the race, try try again... is janam main nahin to agle main... etc. etc.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 13 Aug 2005 08:19

pillai wrote:I am no "US based south asia expert" but thats how it looks to me.

No you are not. You are a Pakistan based dishonest RAPE.

AshishN · Post by **AshishN** » 13 Aug 2005 08:19

O pillai of strength, satyame vijayate.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 13 Aug 2005 08:26

Rangudu,

I think your characterisation of the purposes of this weapon system and this test are accurate, but with one exception.

Going by the Draft Nuclear Doctrine it seems highly unlikely that India will operate on a 'launch on warning' basis. The DND stresses that while retaliation will not be immediate, it will be certain and devastating.

So while the detection of a possible nuclear missile in flight would lead to all sorts of Indian preparations it is unlikely the actual order would be given until a nuclear detonation was confirmed to the leadership and a decision made on the scale of the response. In fact conventional missile strikes are exactly the kind of brinkmanship I can see the Pakistanis attempting in order to wear on the Indian leaderships nerves as well as for internal propaganda value - ie the enemy is not safe even in his own capital. Saddam certainly attempted to use Scuds in that fashion. It paralysed Israel - they couldnt be sure which strike was going to deliver nerve agents.

Pakistani conventional cruise missile attacks seem somewhat less likely given the cost, but with what is most likely a greater accuracy they do make more sense against high priority targets like airfields, air defences, higher level headquarters and naval shore facilities, and Delhi in general.

Propaganda strikes on Delhi and Bombay could also have the effect of diverting resources from military priorities to political ones, ie, preventing further succesful strikes.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 13 Aug 2005 08:27

They are looking for a reaction from GOI and even they have shrugged.
This is creating kujli

parsuram · Post by **parsuram** » 13 Aug 2005 08:32

Oye pillay, Re: "Paki troglodytes, who sit around with their thumbs up their behinds, eating biryani, will have to be pushed back a few decades.

Not. Those very same paki troglodytes are, even as we surf these pages, in the process of a slow motion collective suicide mission (on account of the ummha, dont you know) led by their fearless suicidal leader, one mushaaraf. Sooner than you know it, it will be later than you think.

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 13 Aug 2005 08:38

As usual our cat on the wall Johann has more or less confirmed the postulate of ramana, ie Pakis have scored a self goal,

Now the MND will have addendum or version 2 revision 1.001 which states that any missile attack on India from TSp would automatically call for Massive and immidiate Nuke retalliation by India.

Thats why Shiv was saying let them arm to teeth so that all 32 will be lost in shot.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 13 Aug 2005 08:47

Well Pillai it's like this. I believe that the Pakistani ruling establishment's survival depends partly upon giving the impression to Pakistani people that they are "equal" if not superior to India.

Never mind what the people in Pakistan actually need, they are certainly told that one of the major problems Pakistan faces is an imminent takeover by India, which is bent on destroying Islam (or Pakistan, which are portrayed as one and the same).

This is not an idle joke because the Pakistani leadership has used the period between Zia's rule and now to nurture a frenzied feeling in Pakistan that Pakistan and Islam are under threat especially from India. With people feeling this way Pakistani leaders also have to show how well they are performing in keeping that threat at bay.

By reacting "rationally" to this new cruise missile as a "worrying" threat India would make two mistakes:

1) It legitimizes the Pakistani establishment's claim that India's kafir anti-Islamic threat is being held at bay and it improves their standing in front of the Pakistani people who have been indoctrinated to fear India.

2) For at least the "paagal" constituency of the Pakistani leadership it would serve as "proof" that the kafir is weak and trembling, and that there is one more chance to make war.

So the correct public reaction would, in my opinion, be the "crazy" post of mine that you responded to. An irrational, mad quasi-religious war type reaction. Such a reaction (not from me - but if it came from "India") would actually put greater pressure on the ruling establishment of Pakistan.

Just my assessment.

I do not believe that Pakistanis as a people were ever very paranoid or irrational, but a degree of paranoia has now been put in by state sponsored education because that paranoia legitimises the "powerful military" rule of the Pakistani oligarchy.

AshishN · Post by **AshishN** » 13 Aug 2005 08:51

At least the official response of NSN has been

and

followed by

D_Prem · Post by **D_Prem** » 13 Aug 2005 09:06

Sorry but this is not relavent to this thread. Deleted by admin:
O BTW read something more serious to be meaningful.
:Arun_S (Admin hat on).

Hey I found this really good read on missile jamming. Really cool how the science works. [Didnt know where to put it.......and I hope it hasnt been posted b4]... . . . . . .

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 13 Aug 2005 09:30

Shiv,

The RAPE's martially superior mind is conditioned to see Hindu weakness in every move my India. If GoI says that this "test" is a big deal etc., the strategic depth-wallahs in Pindi will turn around and say - "See, our 100 ft danda has scared the weak Hindoos into a stage of panic." If GoI says nothing, it will be because the Hindoo is so scared that he just cannot even respond to our display of our mighty manhood.

There's really no deterrence against a delusional enemy. We just have to keep doing our thing and keep the gun cocked. For the TSPians are going to try another stunt sooner rather than later. Time is not on their side, but they are likely to feel that the short-term is their window of opportunity. I expect to read Paki "analyses" highlighting what TSP may or may not get while casting doubt on our stuff. "BrahMos has problems, Indian tanks are useless, artillery is old, planes are crashing, India will never order new subs, planes etc. etc." By next year, the cumulative delusion could reach a stage where they begin planning another "tactically brilliant" move. I think it has to be before the end of next year because Mush needs some big crisis to justify extending his dictatorship to 2007 and beyond.

Kuttay ka dum...

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 13 Aug 2005 09:48

Rangudu wrote: By next year, the cumulative delusion could reach a stage where they begin planning another "tactically brilliant" move. I think it has to be before the end of next year because Mush needs some big crisis to justify extending his dictatorship to 2007 and beyond.

Kuttay ka dum...

That may be so R, but the US is playing a game that is designed to get Paki establishment hopping mad.

First the F-16s are promised and then we hear of "two" being readied. I wonder if the cruise missile is a signal to say "If you don't give us F-16, we will get what we want from China"

I doubt if the US will fall for that because the US will say "How do we know you will not do that even if we give you F-16"

Ultimately the US is expecting Pakistan to deliver on the US's demands. Blackmailing the US is not going to help Pakistan much. Either way it may make little difference to India - but I still think no public reaction or a dismissive ROTFL public reaction from India would be appropriate.

Musharraf in particular will be under great pressure.

arun · Post by **arun** » 13 Aug 2005 10:14

shiv wrote:
Ani wrote:The ‘me too’ missile tests in both countries
Ani - if you are Indian and you are concerned about how India gets "used" and accused in the media, I would request you not to use terms like "me too missile tests by BOTH countries"

Shiv,

Give the Guy a break.

That comment is a direct quote from the article posted :

Pak testfires its answer to BrahMos

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 13 Aug 2005 10:21

arun wrote:
shiv wrote: Ani - if you are Indian and you are concerned about how India gets "used" and accused in the media, I would request you not to use terms like "me too missile tests by BOTH countries"

Shiv,

Give the Guy a break.

That comment is a direct quote from the article posted :

Pak testfires its answer to BrahMos

Boss - my statement is self explanatory. The media do this but that is not an excuse for us to do it. Note the clear reference to the media in my message. It is precisely because the media do this that I am requesting (and not demanding) that we should learn from the error. I have no way of knowing whether Ani is Indian or not. If he is not one - he will not be under any pressure to see things my way.

So I am not sure what kind of break you want me to give him - I have not been critical as far as I can tell.

arun · Post by **arun** » 13 Aug 2005 10:22

Arun_S and Harry,

On the issue of modifying the Chukar, it will certainly not give rise to a "nuclear capable" cruise missile.

The beefiest Chukar model, including booster, weighs in at 270 Kg ( 211 for the air launched version ). To lug a nuclear warhead will need a substantial scaling up.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Aug 2005 10:26

R1, reminds me of my misspent youth - if a girl was ready to talk she was deeply in love, if not she was in love but too shy to express herself

quite a win-win theorem.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 13 Aug 2005 10:46

arun wrote:Arun_S and Harry,

On the issue of modifying the Chukar, it will certainly not give rise to a "nuclear capable" cruise missile.

The beefiest Chukar model, including booster, weighs in at 270 Kg ( 211 for the air launched version ). To lug a nuclear warhead will need a substantial scaling up.

Where did I say it is mpdified Chukar? pls read my post carefully and do not attribute me wrongly.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Aug 2005 10:57

> they couldnt be sure which strike was going to deliver nerve agents.

this kind of threat can surely paralyze a developed country but unfortunately for the pakis, India just a overpopulated poor country. someone farts and 10 people die here. 95% of the citizens of delhi and mumbai dont have any luxury of sitting at home and not working even for a day so they will work and throw a few buckets of water to wash off the blood on the street if any.

the political class wont like parliament house or north block taking hits but its upto them to respond appropriately or lose face & the next election

suits me just fine, a few less corrupt critters to keep track of. ravi rikheye
1984 book also has a bunch of Mirage-IIIs smashing up parliament house.
(one can be sure most of our MPs will adjourn parliament and depart to
do 'constituency work' at the first sign of danger)

I think Pak will follow the 'rules' that have prevailed so far and not waste their inventory on civilian targets it wont work. in all previous outright wars both sides have generally refrained from bombing civilians. and pak cant let the LeT have a few of these and say Hamas has Kassem rockets so Let Labs also made these we didnt do anything.

they have to get a accuracy of 10mts CEP to realistically target stuff like individual buildings or factories, 3m for harder targets like radar and bridges, 1m for railway tracks. for nuclear even a 1km CEP would be ok.

Raj Malhotra · Post by **Raj Malhotra** » 13 Aug 2005 11:28

Johann wrote:Rangudu,

The DND stresses that while retaliation will not be immediate, it will be certain and devastating.

Where did you get that?

To my limited and basic understanding India has a flexible second strike policy. Flexible here means anything that India thinks will lead to strike from other side or that strike has been launched (without detonation) will lead to immediate and complete destruction of --.

arun · Post by **arun** » 13 Aug 2005 11:40

Arun_S wrote:

Time to don your

hat.

No offence was intended, neither was its taking warranted.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 13 Aug 2005 12:16

Singha,

- Thanks for pointing out that the CEP of "Babur" in a land attack role is an unknown.

- The PAF may abide by the rules given that it holds a heavily romanticised view of their combat role. However if Ghauri and Shaheen are anything to go by Babur will be largely in PA hands. The mutilations of Kargil and the massacres of 1971 do not suggest that the PA is a body with a great deal of self-restraint when it comes to the law of armed conflict.

- From the strictly military point of view, given the relatively low numbers of cruise missiles Pakistan would be able to spare for conventional strikes they are unlikely to be much more than nuisance weapons. Given PA predilictions its likely that they will seek psychological rather than military impact with small numbers of conventional CMs.

For better and for worse the politicians who make the final decisions in democracies can never afford to look at things from a purely military perspective.

- I dont know if the Pakistanis would actually aim one at Parliament, but I think it is wrong to trivialise the effect on India. The Parliament attack of December 2001 was not received casually. First of all because MPs took it personally, and in a parliamentary form of government the executive can never take the legislature's mood for granted. Secondly parliament is one of the major national symbols. Even if the Indian public is not proud of its politicians, it is proud of its democracy.

- India as a whole is not yet a 'developed country', but the developed sections of its economy have generated the wave of prosperity that is lifting so many boats. Cruise missile attacks on Delhi and Bombay will keep people indoors, and will affect business and business confidance. Any Cabinet will probably find it important to prevent further attacks to restore confidance in Bombay and Delhi, just as Prime Ministers and Presidents must tend to London and New York.

- The pressure of the political and economic classes will only be magnified by 24 hour cable TV, both Indian and foreign, English, Hindi and whatever else.

One of the most basic requirements in any campaign is the selection and maintenance of the aim. I think the chief danger of such strikes would be to divert effort in to other avenues - defending the airspace of the cities, retaliation against Pakistani cities, etc.