Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby krsai » 04 Feb 2002 21:16

John, thanks for answering. I guess, [leaving calculations aside/{am lazy}], going by your answer I am to assume it has to burn it out before it re-enters else the projectile path [would be incorrect] and mathematically not possible. <p>8Km wala is a waste of "agni" for a 4km target range.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby ArunK » 04 Feb 2002 21:35

<blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr>Originally posted by k r sai:
John, thanks for answering. I guess, [leaving calculations aside/{am lazy}], going by your answer I am to assume it has to burn it out before it re-enters else the projectile path [would be incorrect] and mathematically not possible. <p>8Km wala is a waste of "agni" for a 4km target range.<hr></blockquote><p>As long as you can get the missile positioned above the target and send it downward towards the target, what difference does it make how much fuel is left in the end?

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby Rye » 04 Feb 2002 21:43


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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby subbu » 04 Feb 2002 22:59

Can a version of Agni be launched from say AN-32 (or perhaps a bigger transport plane)? (am clueless as to the dimensions of the cargo bay of AN-32), extending the range by about 500km using the Air launched ballistic missile? and further increment owing to the fuel saved as the missile is launched say at 10km altitude?<p>On a different note, a ballistic missile can carry mini versions of exocet type of anti-ship missile, the 'exocetlets' with a range of 10kms weighing perhaps 300kg each but retaining the original warhead (weight included). Imagine 4 of such missiles on board a ballistic warhead, when aimed at a distant CBG, the RV releases these exocetlets at a certain height, and the exocetlets do a accurate dive towards the sea vessels of the CBG, either each can traget a different ship or perhaps do a wave attack on a Aircraft carrier, 2 exos followed by another 2 exos slamming into a Aircraft Carrier, once could create such waves of exos by timed release of these exos from RV. In this case the CEP is not a concern too.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby Atish » 05 Feb 2002 00:46

Fellow BRites allow me to lighten up the tone a little bit. We have all heard this gem from Dr. Kalaam.<p>Dreams float on an impatient wind
A wind that wants to create a new order
An order of strength and a thundering of fire.<p>I came up with a translation. <p>khwaab udte hai ik manchale toofan par
taaqat ki buniyaad par aatish-e-parwaaz par
duniya me kaayam hoga naye nizaamat ka raaj.

khwaab- dream, aatish-e-parwaaz - 'the fire aflight, i.e. the Agni', nizaam - order
<p>And also wrote a related rubaai (quatrain)<p>khwaab yu udte hai jaise ik manchala shahbaaz
jo dekhta hai aasmaanon se mustaqbil ke raaz
is duniya mein kaayam hoga ik naya nizaam
nayi taaqat ki yalgaar naya aatish-e-parwaaz

shahbaaz -falcon, mustaqbil - future, yalgaar - battle cry.<p>Thought BRites would appreciate it.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby Umrao » 05 Feb 2002 01:14

Sirif adaab khahonga janab.
Bahut Khoob.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby krsai » 05 Feb 2002 02:08

http://stratmag.com/page08.htm#a06<p>India tested on the eve of Republic Day on January 26, <u>a medium range (800-900 km) Prithvi missile</u>. The test has been deemed successful and it is expected to enter production soon. The solid fuel missile is a distinct improvement on the Prithvi-I which has a range of only 150 km and thus has to be moved close to the borders with Pakistan is it is to hit its target. The new missile, in that sense, can be safely based somewhere in central India and still have enough range to hit its targets. India has also tested a sea-skimming variant of the Trishul missile. It is expected to enter service by the end of the year. <p>====<p>!?!?!?!?Prithvi?!?!?!?

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby Sanjay » 05 Feb 2002 05:22

Shiv,
Thank you.
This, incidentally is for the sequel to my book.
Work now in progress.
Thanks a lot.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby shiv » 05 Feb 2002 05:50

<blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr>Originally posted by subbu:
Can a version of Agni be launched from say AN-32 (or perhaps a bigger transport plane)? (am clueless as to the dimensions of the cargo bay of AN-32), extending the range by about 500km using the Air launched ballistic missile? and further increment owing to the fuel saved as the missile is launched say at 10km altitude?<hr></blockquote><p>I think the idea of launching ballistic missiles from an aircraft was popular in the 50s and 60s when the US, USSR and Britain had nuclear armed standoff missiles ontheir heaviest bombers. Mind you - the cargo bay is probably useless - either one needs a dedicated bomb-bay to drop the missile after which it fires, or it needs to be slung underwing, or under the fuselage - usually semi recessed within the fuselage or else the plane will need a very long undercarriage.<p>I don't think India has any aircraft at present that can carry a 10,000 + Kg weight underwing.<p>I wonder why standoff ballistic missiles from aircraft died out? Perhaps the whole idea was too unwieldy and was OK only in the state of technology in the 50s and 60s, - and besides, if you take out an a/c or an airfield in a massive nuclear strike - the missiles become useless.<p>
<blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr>Originally posted by subbu:
On a different note, a ballistic missile can carry mini versions of exocet type of anti-ship missile, the 'exocetlets' with a range of 10kms weighing perhaps 300kg each but retaining the original warhead (weight included). Imagine 4 of such missiles on board a ballistic warhead, <hr></blockquote><p>Someone correct me if I am wrong (Arun_s?). Ballistic missiles are aimed upwards towards a point and they essentially freefall after burnout. Fixed targets (such as cities) are pre-programmed. If ballistic missiles with multiple smart sub-munitions have to be used against a flotilla of ships - the ballistic missiles have to be reprogrammed to follow a ballistic course that can vary depending on where the ships are situated. The missile must necessarily be aimed for a point over the ara of the flotilla so that the submunitions will have a chance to hit a ship or two. Also I wonder about the "hardening" the components of the exocetlets will need for them to go up in a ballistic missile - (temperature and G variation) for them to work flawlessly after release.<p>All in all - not a completely unworkable idea. But who would such a munition be aimed at? If Russia, India or China tried to develop it - the only target would be the US Navy. The US has the greatest means to develop this - and they could aim it essentially at anybody - including Indian naval forces if they chose to spend money on developing such a weapon.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby Aditya Vikram » 05 Feb 2002 06:33

Hey while talking about ranges of A-II do not forget that Hong Kong and the bulk of China Industrial belt is about 2500Km from calcutta.So A-II could be designed once the A-III is in service to hit Chengdu,Xian Hongkong etc . lets not forget in any strike the factories of Chengdu will be very important for India.
A-III will then be planned for use against Harbin ,Beijing, Shanghai,Nanjing etc.
But until A-III is in service A-II will have to treked to the northeast and be launched from there.
Anther point are any of our northeast mountains made of granite so that we can make somthing like Norad headquaters where the A-II can be kept????

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby member_128 » 05 Feb 2002 07:27

Misiles from AN-32/ IL-76:<p>Technically this can be done by using what is known as LVAD (Low Velocity Air Drop) like the way inwhich APCs and Trucks and Hummers are dropped from 10,000 ft.<p>Schematics on these line exist where by the Missile is strapped on Pallets and extracted by chutes. <p>Technically feasible

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby merlin » 05 Feb 2002 08:26

<I>>>Given the likelihood that I will be flamed in this particular debate, i still stand behind my statement that Agni 1/SR gives us no(additional) second strike capability. This capability (only vis a vis Pakistan) already existed in Agni II/(0riginal)/LR. What additional mobility/survivability does Agni 1/SR provide india with ?</I><p>1. The Agni II costs more than the Agni I.
2. Agni II's spent first stage will fall in Indian territory when fired westwards into Pakistan, unless it is fired over the Arabian sea and a dog-leg manoeuver is used.
3. Agni I is lighter than the Agni II. This in itself gives better mobility - Agni I can reach places where Agni II cannot because the bridges cannot handle the weight.<p><I>>>Whats the garauntee that these particular missile units are NBC protected 24/hrs of the year to ensure survivability; land based missiles have these problems unless of course protected in hardened silos.</I><p>What do you mean NBC protected? Care to elaborate?
It is difficult in the extreme to target these missile units once they start moving. The US had a hell of a time targeting Scuds in Iraq. India is a much larger land mass for the US to track forget China or Pakistan.<p><I>>>Clearly this particular range (of Agni SR) is not sufficient to target china and does not provide any additional second strike capability against them (they have enough first strike capability to overwhelm our second strike capability).</I><p>Clearly, you are talking out of your hat here. How for instance do you know that China has enough first strike capability to overwhelm our second strike capability? How many deliverable warheads does China have? And how many targets would they need to destroy to prevent any kind of second strike from India?<p><I>>>Only the ATV equivalent subs can provide us with that. i.e. only an ATV sub affords us true second strike capability. Tracking 5 ATV's with LR missiles is a whole different ball game as opposed to land based deterents.</I><p>ATV isn't an SSBN, its an SSN. It won't carry long range ballistic missiles, although long range cruise missiles are a distinct possibility, albeit in the very long run.<p><I>>>Hence i denounce this spin to make it appear as if the Agni SR / I (whatever its name) is gonna change the balance of power.</I><p>Denounce all you want. It won't change the fact that Agni I can target all of Pakistan from deep inside India. Prithvi can now be dedicated to conventional strikes against high-value targets. However I do agree with you that this won't change the balance of power with respect to Pakistan, which was always in our favour.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby geeth » 05 Feb 2002 09:06

>>>Geeth, do have any press report on that US sat. calculation of a 3500km range for Agni-2 ?<p>Sanjay,<p>No I don't have that report with me. In fact I read it here in BR. One of the members posted the news report and I am more or less sure about the range mentioned in that report. I will search if I can get the report from somewhere.<p>Regarding the distance between New Delhi and Beijing, this is what I got with a quick search on internet:<p>Distance between New Delhi, India and Beijing, China, as the crow flies:
2341 miles (3768 km) (2035 nautical miles) <p>Initial heading from New Delhi to Beijing:
east-northeast (60.5 degrees)
Initial heading from Beijing to New Delhi:
west (263.4 degrees)
See driving distance and directions (courtesy MapBlast).<p>New Delhi, India<p>Location: 28:54:00N 77:13:00E<p>Beijing, China<p>Location: 39:55:00N 116:23:00E<p>Here is the link for the site from which you can find distance between any two points on earth as the crow flies:<p>http://www.indo.com/distance/<p>>>>The nuke subs if ever they arrive will have Klub for start. Later Brahmos.<p>Rudra, nuclear tipped clubs may have been already fitted onboard the tenth Kilo with AIP. Though it is my speculation, there is a distinct possibility that this has already happened.<p>Peeyoosh,<p>I have replied to you.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby bored_desi » 05 Feb 2002 09:06

<blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr>Originally posted by merlin:
1. The Agni II costs more than the Agni I.
2. Agni II's spent first stage will fall in Indian territory when fired westwards into Pakistan, unless it is fired over the Arabian sea and a dog-leg manoeuver is used.
3. Agni I is lighter than the Agni II. This in itself gives better mobility - Agni I can reach places where Agni II cannot because the bridges cannot handle the weight.<p>Prithvi can now be dedicated to conventional strikes against high-value targets. However I do agree with you that this won't change the balance of power with respect to Pakistan, which was always in our favour.[/QB]<hr></blockquote><p>
My point is simply that Agni 2 can do the same thing (like Agni 1). The only difference as you pointed out was the following
1) Agni 1 is cheaper to build.
2) Its slighty more mobile as compared to Agni 2 due to the lower weight. <p>Factor 2 is not really that great considering that Agni 1 is mobile enough to travel on certain national highways (which require weight bearing capacity of 80 tons) and the rail road network.<p>Point 1 is not really that important considering that other factors are bound to be more costly than simply the missile cost itself.
i.e. to maintain a crew ready 24 hrs, trained, strategic command network etc will be far more costly than the missile(s) costs itself.
As far as the first stage dropping into Indian land, how important is that considering that India no first use pledge.
As far as China is concerned, I dont think that Agni I gives us better protection against them. Besides considering the existing nuclear infrastructure of the chinese they can easily overwhelm us during a first strike. As of yet its unlikely the Indian command and control can withstand such multiple strikes (should the chinese decide to launch).<p> As far as prithvi is concerned its better to convert it from a liquid based missile to a solid fueled missile provided the CEP can be maintained. That will be more advantageous considering the current time to launch for existing prithvi missiles.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby bala » 05 Feb 2002 10:53

<blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr>Originally posted by pchupunkar:

This capability (only vis a vis Pakistan) already existed in Agni II/(0riginal)/LR. Hence i denounce this spin to make it appear as if the Agni SR / I (whatever its name) is gonna change the balance of power.
<hr></blockquote><p>Huh? Spoken like a true Puki. We have KR Sai fretting over 9km vs 4km Trishul missile and Chupunkar doing the same with Agni 2 and Agni 1. The tag team is back. Brilliant. I hope you guys can drown in each other's logic. <p>Meanwhile India's new Agni-1 SR has caused the Pukes to object again and become **** -scarred. The reason is obvious. Agni-1 is optimized for TSP and covers it adequately. No more ambiguity. I presume quite a few Agni-1 have been deployed with the army. <p>As for China they are currently peeved with TSP and I don't believe they would throw their hat in the ring when Uncle is around in the neighborhood. Agni-2 true range is not known except for Arun_S simulation. In my book, this is good enough until Agni 3.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby jrjrao » 05 Feb 2002 15:16

Plans to increase strike range of Agni ballistic missile<p>http://in.news.yahoo.com/020205/20/1fmjn.html

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby Avid » 05 Feb 2002 19:09

pchupunkar has been engaging in a discussion which is coming straight out of his hat.<p>There's something called an optimized weapon! Agni-X (1-SR) is optimized to cover ranges between Prithvi and Agni-II.<p>By your logic a country ought to maintain only a fleet of SSBN carrying ICBMs because anything else is a subset and hence not useful?<p>Beyond the optimality of the missile and other advantages pointed out above there's other things:<p>- Agni-1 SR is almost half the length of Agni-II and can be thus easily hidden or moved in a conventional railcar/truck.<p>- It will, as Arun_S pointed out, probably form the basis for Dhanush-II providing a sea-launched (not sub-launched) capability. And as far as sea-launched versions are concerned, size does matter !!!<p>- Part of evolving doctrine, development of separate platforms for launching nuclear/conventional strikes. Now, the argument of Pak wrongly construing Prithvi launch as a nuclear strike can not be made. While the ambiguity is a deterence in itself, it also plays into the hands of the west fear-mongering, in addition to chances of miscalculation.

George J

Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby George J » 05 Feb 2002 20:06

I know its early in the morning...but i think my eyes are playing tricks with me!!!
Look at this pic (from Rakesh's update): note the Indian flag motif? it does not follow the curvature of missile. Also note that this pic has been taken from the LEFT of the missile.
Image<p>Now look at this pic (again from Rakesh's update):this pic also seems to have been taken from the left rear of the "same" missile. Notice that the orange stripes and the flag motif are now on the left of the missile now.
Image<p>Are these pics of the same missiles or something's amiss...besides my caffine?<p>Assuming that i m seeing things, its intersting to note that in the first pic missile seems to be on a carriage with TIRES not railway carriage wheels. That sure looks road mobile to me.<p>Also in the next pic do notice that the hanger or garage from where the missile seems to be rolled out off...also seems to be on rails. Neat huh?<p>Now before you go off on a jingoistic trip..could you please explain the discrepency in the two images.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby bored_desi » 05 Feb 2002 20:07

<blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr>Originally posted by bala:
<p>Huh? Spoken like a true Puki. We have KR Sai fretting over 9km vs 4km Trishul missile and Chupunkar doing the same with Agni 2 and Agni 1. The tag team is back. Brilliant. I hope you guys can drown in each other's logic. <p>Meanwhile India's new Agni-1 SR has caused the Pukes to object again and become **** -scarred. The reason is obvious. Agni-1 is optimized for TSP and covers it adequately. No more ambiguity. I presume quite a few Agni-1 have been deployed with the army. <p>As for China they are currently peeved with TSP and I don't believe they would throw their hat in the ring when Uncle is around in the neighborhood. Agni-2 true range is not known except for Arun_S simulation. In my book, this is good enough until Agni 3.<hr></blockquote><p>
Fretting ?? I am only scoffing at the claims made by some people that this "optimization" has given India a true second strike capability. I don't believe that this particular missile has made much difference in that respect. Only ATV with LR missiles (ballistic / cruise) will make such a difference. However what i am looking for is decreased CEP (than what currently exists in the liquid fueled prithvi) to be achieved in the other solid fueled missiles (Agni X, etc).
As far as me being a paki, just because someone does not agree with you does'nt make them the devil (worst yet a paki).

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby krsai » 05 Feb 2002 20:24

bala, where did I talk about trishul? Are you dreaming being on the other side of the fence!?. That 'd b something to satisfy your claim.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby ramana » 05 Feb 2002 21:04

This lack of fins on the RV could mean this is a new design? Also Dr. Pillai talks of improvements in manouverability.
Are we seeing a new concept in RV control? Have they changed from the hot gas system used before- High Altitude Engine(HAE)? The first A-I flight in 1989(?) did not have fins and was pure ballistic (WOP). The second flight onwards had the finned RV. Maybe due to the lesser range they dont need the fins to control the RV, but how do you reconcile with Dr. Pillai's statement?

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby krsai » 05 Feb 2002 21:28

Q: Does putting flex nozzle in RV increases manouverability and precision?

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby jrjrao » 05 Feb 2002 21:51

Sorry, slightly off-topic (should have checked if there was a GSLV related topic in HICAF)...<p>Japan Rocket Failure May Raise Launch Insurance Rates
"Tokyo, Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Satellite insurance rates for the H-IIA, Japan's only commercial rocket, may rise after its failure yesterday to place one of two satellites in orbit, hurting hopes of competing with foreign rivals, an insurer said."

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby subbu » 05 Feb 2002 22:47

Thanks Shiv for the comments,<p> Since the Prithvi and Agni are mobile missiles, it implies they have to be programmed, if any, on the fly. This is under the assumption that if launch point can change so can targetted point as either requires change of the same parameters.<p> And as Jay Prakash noted, and I have seen such a LVAD launch on Discovery, I would believe we could perhaps launch an Agni-2 from a cargo plane taking off from Andamans, to reach interior China. while a preemtive strike on airbases is entirely possible, I don't think china can saturate all the available airfields with its long range missiles. And surely not all that are available in southern part of India. while this is possibly a remote scenario we would definitely like to have technology demonstration. Perhaps when things get realistic we would go for such cost involving exercise.<p> About targetting ships, with real-time intel, CBG's are at a risk. I believe China has such flotilla's and a counter to its blue water capability is essential. if it is US Navy as well, and if we ever built a smart munition warhead, perhaps their CBG's will be more careful entering Indian Ocean, although it can put us under uncle's uncomfortable glare with such an 'offensive' deployment. Beyond this it is more politics...:-)<p> But if it is a warhead on a Prithvi test-fired onto a Pak ship, we could perhaps use it on Agni as well, even though the pak ships are vulnerable to our current capability.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby bagha » 05 Feb 2002 23:00

George
the most convenient explanation of the two pics would have been that the negative or the slide from which one of the two was developed was flipped... happens a lot with press pics. with left handed salutes and salami shastras done with the left leg back.... and of course with the badge on the beret over the right eye and sloping leftwards..
but that isnt the case here coz in one pic the sun is on the plain side and in the other the sun is on the painted side...in other words not a case of flipping of the negative while developing a print.
besides the first work maybe just someone putting on some Photoshop to make an otherwise insipid white pic nice looking...

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby bagha » 05 Feb 2002 23:04

what happens with a flipped negative is that it results in a pic which is a mirror image of the real thing.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby shiv » 06 Feb 2002 04:42

<blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr>Originally posted by George J:
I know its early in the morning...but i think my eyes are playing tricks with me!!!<p>Are these pics of the same missiles or something's amiss...besides my caffine?<p><hr></blockquote><p>George - the "posed" pics of Agni have definitely had some photoshop touching up done - the Indian flag being only one of the effects.<p>Perhaps we were not mistaken in thinking that the missile that went up is different from the missile in the photo.<p>I think we can take one of two kids of attitide about this:<p>Attitude 1)Oh nooooo! (wail) something has gone wrong! Bemoan the thousand years of subjugation<p>Attitude 2)Heh heh heh :D the misinfo dept is at work. Keep the pakis guessing.<p>
PS: George J please check your pvt mail

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby svinayak » 06 Feb 2002 05:24

Arun_S we need some expert opinion on this Japan launch and test probe. Looks like th probe experiment is a university class experiment.
How are they getting orders from only two tests.
Off course lot of clout is used in these contracts?<p>http://www1.timesofindia.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=1880365624<p>Japanese rocket fails to release satellite <p>
AP [ TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 05, 2002 10:57:08 AM ]

OKYO: Japanese space officials acknowledged on Tuesday that the H-2A rocket failed to release one of the two satellites it was carrying after blasting off the day before.<p>The Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, which designed the DASH probe, said scientists had repeatedly sent commands to the rocket's capsule overnight, hoping that the satellite would be properly deployed. The DASH, a research module loaded with instruments to test re-entry technology for future manned space flights, was to have circled the earth for three days before plunging to earth somewhere in the Sahara Desert.<p>But scientists on the ground received radio signals late Monday indicating that the $4.5 million probe remained attached to the rocket capsule, the institute said. ``We are still trying to release it, but at this point that seems difficult,'' the ISAS said in a statement.<p>Unless released, the probe will continue to circle the earth. Monday's blastoff of the H-2A rocket, Japan's biggest to date, seemed nearly perfect _ until hours later mission controllers still couldn't confirm whether the DASH satellite was in orbit. It was another blot on Japan's bid to compete with the United States and Europe in the lucrative satellite launching business.<p>Japanese space officials have pledged 11 more state-funded launches over the next three years.<p>The launch of the $64 million rocket was the second and final H-2A test flight from Japan's space center in Tanegashima, a small island more than 980 km southwest of Tokyo.<p>The successful launch of the first H-2A launch in August was a relief after repeated failures of its earlier model, the H-2.<p>US-based Hughes Space and Communications International dumped an order for 10 satellite launches with Japan after those snafus.<p>The other satellite, the $43 million SDS-1, was functioning properly. It will remain in orbit for about a year testing how commercial components such as microchips, batteries and solar cells perform in outer space.<p>The H-2A can carry payloads of up to 4.5 tons, in line with Europe's Ariane rockets and the Delta rockets of the United States.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby Arun_S » 06 Feb 2002 05:45

<blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr>Shiv: Someone correct me if I am wrong (Arun_s?). Ballistic missiles are aimed upwards towards a point and they essentially freefall after burnout. Fixed targets (such as cities) are pre-programmed. <hr></blockquote><p>You are correct. <p>However the idea of using sub-munition for post re-entery Multiple Targeting is just too far fateched, simply becuase:<p>1. The RV re-enters at more then hypersonic speed, and it is impossible to launch/dispense any munition at hypersonic speed. BTW submunition will ablate at such speed unless designed like a RV :D IIRC Exocet kind of missiles are subsonic, much less supersonic & would certainly breakup at Mach-4 speed much less Mach-10 or 16.<p>2. There is just too less a time left after RV safely re-enters atmosphere, to decelerate to say Mach-6, before attempting to dispens submunition.<p>3. Even if one can manage to dispense sub-munition, there is simply not enough time to acquire the moving targets using on-board sub-munition sensors, and much less for trajectory correction to go get wildly divergent targets.<p>Just some thoughts... :roll:

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby Arun_S » 06 Feb 2002 05:51

acharya: The URL like does not work :roll:

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby member_3818 » 06 Feb 2002 06:05

Hi guys,<p> I just have a simple question..does India have the hydrogen bomb or the capacity to make one anytime soon? Does puki have it too? Would it make any difference to have a hydrogen bomb in our arsenal?

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby shiv » 06 Feb 2002 06:54

<blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr>Originally posted by chuckles:
Hi guys,<p> I just have a simple question..does India have the hydrogen bomb or the capacity <hr></blockquote><p>Chuckles <p>Two things:<p>1)The answer to your question is here<p>http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/ISSUE3-6/ramana.html<p>"A fusion weapon" is an H-bomb<p>
2)Forum guidelines require that you use a login name that sounds like a real name - your own name if you want to use that.<p>I have disabled the name "chuckles". You will have to re-register with a username that sounds like a real name.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby Arun_S » 06 Feb 2002 07:10

Shiv: pls check your BR personal message. Thanks.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby ramana » 06 Feb 2002 07:36

The extended range Agni, Dr. V.K. Aatre was talking about is probably the A-III.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby Arun_S » 06 Feb 2002 09:27

Ramana: Pls check your email.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby subbu » 06 Feb 2002 22:08

Looks like Arun_S wants to pop all my balloons!<p>anyway, I have some more to fly<p> 1) what if the RV is designed to increase drag or better fly like a glider (in principle) after burnout and re-entry so that it gains horizontal velocity instead of vertical velocity, resulting in range gain and perhaps becoming into a cruising RV?? perhaps doesn't need sub-munitions!<p>this should be possible, if we think of a space shuttle coming in to land , in my opinion a huge RV!<p> 2) In the other case, the less time available to make up the sub munition's mind can be corrected, when they are released at a higher height well beyond any ABM's reach and if you want more time, put a parachute on its back, (I don't know what kind of parachute will withstand Mach-6!!)

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby svinayak » 06 Feb 2002 22:17

Arun here it is.<p>Japanese rocket fails to release satellite <p>
AP [ TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 05, 2002 10:57:08 AM ] <p>OKYO: Japanese space officials acknowledged on Tuesday that the H-2A rocket failed to release one of the two satellites it was carrying after blasting off the day before.<p>The Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, which designed the DASH probe, said scientists had repeatedly sent commands to the rocket's capsule overnight, hoping that the satellite would be properly deployed. The DASH, a research module loaded with instruments to test re-entry technology for future manned space flights, was to have circled the earth for three days before plunging to earth somewhere in the Sahara Desert.<p>But scientists on the ground received radio signals late Monday indicating that the $4.5 million probe remained attached to the rocket capsule, the institute said. ``We are still trying to release it, but at this point that seems difficult,'' the ISAS said in a statement.<p>Unless released, the probe will continue to circle the earth. Monday's blastoff of the H-2A rocket, Japan's biggest to date, seemed nearly perfect _ until hours later mission controllers still couldn't confirm whether the DASH satellite was in orbit. It was another blot on Japan's bid to compete with the United States and Europe in the lucrative satellite launching business.<p>Japanese space officials have pledged 11 more state-funded launches over the next three years.<p>The launch of the $64 million rocket was the second and final H-2A test flight from Japan's space center in Tanegashima, a small island more than 980 km southwest of Tokyo.<p>The successful launch of the first H-2A launch in August was a relief after repeated failures of its earlier model, the H-2.<p>US-based Hughes Space and Communications International dumped an order for 10 satellite launches with Japan after those snafus.<p>The other satellite, the $43 million SDS-1, was functioning properly. It will remain in orbit for about a year testing how commercial components such as microchips, batteries and solar cells perform in outer space.<p>The H-2A can carry payloads of up to 4.5 tons, in line with Europe's Ariane rockets and the Delta rockets of the United States.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby jrjrao » 07 Feb 2002 01:32

A fine example of Paki logic, from a retired Air Marshall no less. It goes like this - Agni is a big failure, it won't work, can't meet its range and is too expensive. But we Pakis are still scared $hit - BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH..
Agni tests - The real motive

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby Gerard » 07 Feb 2002 01:49

The pics of the previous Agni-II launch showed the missile in the exact same position (along the rail line from the hanger/shed) for launch. It would seem that this is the launch site and a wheeled TEL was backed into position.<p>I seem to recall TV footage close ups showing fins on the RV.

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Re: Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

Postby Sunil » 07 Feb 2002 02:42

Hi,<p>(apropos to a conversation with Rupak) I am still juggling with the reason for the Pakistani angst over the Agni SR. <p>
One obvious fact that Mohan pointed out was that of the increased area for deployment of a ballistic missile against Pakistani targets. This may be at the core of the Pakistani angst and might explain atleast a part of Ayaz Ahmed Khan's bile. <p>I am getting the impression that the Pakistanis actually intended to *target* the Prithvi launchers as a part of their `First Strike' or at the very least somehow relied on having detailed knowledge of the position of the Prithvi Launchers through some means (most likely via the Dawood Organization active in most parts of India) to get to bed each nite. <p>The Agni SR with its greater range and rail mobile status and its shorter launch preparation time is harder for the pakistanis to track. This means that as of now.. the Pakistani have no clue where the indian missiles are or might be. .
Furthermore.. it would be near impossible to track where they might be by humint in the near future. <p>So in some complicated way.. the Agni SR has made most of pakistan's nuclear EW system invalid. We might as well have a Neon sign over the Prithvis now, it makes no difference if the pakistanis know where they are. As rupak put it.. "This a big psychological blow to the pakistanis". <p>This leaves the question why the americans would not consider such a move a `destablising development'. I think i know the answer.. but I don't want to say it in public (to get an idea why.. simply think of what it looks like from the Pakistani perspective and think of the consequences of such a line of thought). <p>Now consider also this other little part of Ayaz article.. <p>> The Agni Ill test in the present situation is a threatening and intimidator action in pursuit of the fatalistic diplomacy being followed by the BJP government to destabilise South Asia. The BJP leaders are more like terrorist on suicidal missions waiting to destroy Pakistan while committing suicide.<p>The only fatalism i can sense in the Indian Govt.'s position would be if the GoI was saying:- <p>"if the pakistanis are going to use a nuclear weapon on us, they are going to use it regardless of who they are... moderate/islamist.. ergo we have nothing to gain or lose from this moderate v/s islamist fight"?<p>So perhaps.. that is what Ayaz.. and by induction Musharraf (as nothing gets published in the Nation without his approval) is thinking. <p>Which leaves open the question: why is india commiting suicide by doing this in Ayaz's eyes? <p>Answer: Perhaps Ayaz genuinely believes that `Deterrence' is becoming unviable under the present circumstances. <p>Or it could be that i am getting ahead of myself and all that Ayaz and the rest are doing is that they are taking a development unrelated to them and trying to project it in the context of indo-pak relations hoping that they will give them the leverage they need internationally. But this leaves a lot of things unanswered. For example.. what makes the Agni SR more pakistan specific than say Kilo-Klubs or the Novators. Why ignore the IN? <p>strange indeed.. I am quite stuck here.. and would greatly appreciate it if forum members would spare a few minutes for this.


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