Strategic Implications of India's ABM Test

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Alok_N
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Post by Alok_N »

joey wrote:Can you guys comment on what archer raised the question ...
archer? ... as in Drona-archer? :?:

one has to assume that in any cooperative agreement, spying is a component by default ...

one also knows that Israeli and US agencies share some amount of information ...

so, 2+2 = ...
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Post by NRao »

Perhaps someone could comment on the possibility of this?
A land based detector and a sea based ABM is a done deal.

What I would like to see is a space based detector and a sea based one too. Someone had said that the latter may not be possible, but I do not see why not.

Next step, I hope, is a space based boost phase take down. We can then take over the build-up at Gwadar.

I think this ABM would now give India the option (to do or not to do) of taking out Chicom incase TSP launched.
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Post by Kanson »

joey wrote:Can you guys comment on what archer raised the question, which is IMHO very very crucial thing and leaves behind a slight blood stain.

Hopefully we are asking exactly for what we need.
http://users.cyberone.com.au/myers/ostrovsky.html

I got this link posted by someone here. Courtesy: BR poster.

Joey, it supports the claim you made. By the by, what happened to your 50$ deal ? You didnt shared with us ?
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Post by Alok_N »

NRao wrote:What I would like to see is a space based detector and a sea based one too. Someone had said that the latter may not be possible, but I do not see why not.
my guess is that phase stability is an important concern for these fancy radars ... if the assets are sea-based, they will move and destroy the phase relationships ...
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Post by mandrake »

So far he didnt turned up willingly.

Kanson i posted a reply right now, lets wait and see if he turns up or not.
Afterall it was he who raised the bet :P

btw who are you northface from wAB?
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Post by Kanson »

ha! ha! ha! So, your instinct comes true. You have beaten a LM?/Boeing? guy! Congrats!
Infact, I went through the link you gave that day afterwards. To share, I found many fault lines in his argument. One of strong base of his argument is quid pro quid of Arrow tech transfer for Nuclear deal. But that is the most absurd one. Even if we accept what he told is true, then how come that will happen without India/US completing the nuclear deal. Even without transferring, how come India will intergrate and test the missile before completing the Nuclear deal.

Anyway you have own! Congrats again!

No, I am not posting in WAB
Last edited by Kanson on 05 Dec 2006 00:23, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by mandrake »

Alok_N wrote:
NRao wrote:What I would like to see is a space based detector and a sea based one too. Someone had said that the latter may not be possible, but I do not see why not.
my guess is that phase stability is an important concern for these fancy radars ... if the assets are sea-based, they will move and destroy the phase relationships ...
A sea based intercept should communicate using satellites, thats why once i suggested to make a exclusive constellation of satellites for now exclusively for Naval use [as we dont have money to make a full fledged GPS".

Sea based system not only will reduce BM risk but will also ensure the upcoming Hyfly hypersonic cruise missile of US doesnt does any sure shot harm as it will follow a ballistic trajectory rather than sea skimming mode.
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Post by Alok_N »

a constellation of satellites will be very useful in general ...

however, will they be able to provide sufficient stability to a phased array? ... I don't know enough to comment ... regardless, it is clear that there will be an added layer of complexity ... the frmware will be processing not only the radar data but at the same time correcting itself for its own position variation ... btw, what frequency is used? ... one can guesstimte the error incurred ...
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Post by mandrake »

Alok_N wrote:a constellation of satellites will be very useful in general ...

however, will they be able to provide sufficient stability to a phased array? ... I don't know enough to comment ... regardless, it is clear that there will be an added layer of complexity ... the frmware will be processing not only the radar data but at the same time correcting itself for its own position variation ... btw, what frequency is used? ... one can guesstimte the error incurred ...
Yups GPS will work with dedicated constellation.

Recently tri services wanted to have each satellites of their own, what i'm saying here is a constellation exclusively for indian ocean/arabian sea and china sea.

Doing it isnt exactly hard, harder is to make a navalized version.

If india can by any means field a 70% capable system as SM3 in next decade VOILA We are catching up US in their latest tech!.

US DDX only 2 will be build so far till 2010 mostly will be SM2 equipped algreaik burkhe class.

We can work with Russia if it is needed.
Anyways can someone tell me Barak II vertical range is 80 to 100 kms? or SAM locking range over horizontal?
If vertical then its awesome............then how much is horizontal?
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Post by abhischekcc »

All this talk about the evaporation of the 'Kidwai' line is getting me worked up. Can't wait for the next bit of military maneouvers in the desert. Oohhhh.

What are the options left to pakistan after its nuke posture in publically destroyed? More terrorism? I think that we are making a fundamental mistake by treating the paki nation with consideration. We do it to make us look good in int'l diplomacy. But the pakis take is as a sign of weakness. They think we want to talk because we cannot stand the pain of paki terror. And they will continue to think so unless we prove it to them that we are quie capable of walking out of the process.

Are we capable of walking out of the peace process?
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Post by Alok_N »

joey wrote:Yups GPS will work with dedicated constellation.
what does "work" mean in this context? ... will it have sufficient resolution to provide phase stability to the radar array?

I don't need to remind folks that the bloody target is moving at 4 Km/s ...

[sorry ramana boss, no more talk of sea-based radar ... but, I note below and agree with Dileep that a tracker should be firmly fixed, bolted, nailed and glued in place ... I have suffered enough from misalignments ... ]
Last edited by Alok_N on 05 Dec 2006 00:48, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by ramana »

Guys why are we posting inane one liners in this thread? Please read the thread title. Hint its not the nukkad thread.
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Post by Dileep »

It will be difficult for a sea based platform to have enough stability for long distance tracking. But I fail to understand WHY you need it? A 500km range radar can easily see anything goes above 20 km at the extreme range. And tracking is best done by something with its legs solidly on the ground.
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Post by Ananth »

x-post from ABM thread.

Look at the behavior of TSP. They know that we used a long range tracking radar for the test, and since TSP needs to inform India prior to BM test, India was aware of both tests by TSP. The first test TSP might have done for bragging rights. But then even after knowing India has long range tracking radars why did they conduct the second test? Are they so sure that we cannot track their tests? On the other hand if they knew we could see them naked, are their Nodongs capable of multiple flight profiles? Did their new test execute any of those flight profiles to communicate to us that they are still wearing their undies? The second test was weird. Paki generals are not stupid, they are perfectly rational people who always think of their behinds.

The new LRTR adds another element. India would be stupid not to exploit this LRTR to track and store flight profiles of future no-dongs by TSP. All future tests by TSP will enhance India's understanding of the missiles in addition to depleting TSP's armoury.
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Post by hnair »

abhischekcc wrote:All this talk about the evaporation of the 'Kidwai' line is getting me worked up. Can't wait for the next bit of military maneouvers in the desert. Oohhhh.
The line is only fading - we still have a long way to go before it can be totally erased. But it does address the "Western constituency" which believes in Mush's bluster that "Because of my 'Tsingtao specials", they did not attack during Parakram". His public can be fed anything and they believe him, because they want to. Others (from east and west) will be less sure that Pak Army can take care of itself during a showdown.

As someone has pointed out, the Pak PISS-pots are eerily silent. Even the crickets have stopped scratching their privates on that side of the border. I wish someone would slap the Hali fellow from his sleep atop his Remington typewriter, for what we are missing in all this "Prithvi game of tag " talk is the "lighter side of military issues" that he provides. Long time since I choked on the toddy :cry:
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Post by Lalmohan »

i dont think anyone in the west really assumed that the pak army could hold itself against a conventional assault from India... 71 was too strategically conclusive
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Post by NRao »

From a strategic perspective there are a few topic of great interest:

1. Pakistani strategic depth, in plain simple words – Get Taliban to rule A’stan. India cannot afford to let this happen. Pakistan has to be squeezed from all directions. This means longer ranged detectors and trackers and possibly from multiple directions. OK, so it is difficult to place one in the sea, so place one in the CA area, in fact possibly one in A’stan itself
2. We need TSP coverage for sure. All of it. Lock down.
3. From a Chinese perspective we have to de-fang Pakistan. In progress
4. I am not sure if this makes much sense, but can we make TSP and Chicom place their missiles launchers such that when they do launch one that other nations feel that that missile is headed towards them? And, of course, act. So, IF we can have coverage along the border and sea (for China too), then that should force them to launch from their interior (in real war, not tests). What are the chances that such a launch would actually confuse other nations into thinking that it could be headed their way? (Political events being equal.)
5. Also, with NoKo testing (a dud granted) and now India testing an ABM, what is Japan thinking I wonder? My guess is that she is thinking: Nukes. ABM is a given for her. With Chinese compulsion to bully that much pressure has increase on “The Rimâ€
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Post by Luxtor »

hnair wrote:
abhischekcc wrote:All this talk about the evaporation of the 'Kidwai' line is getting me worked up. Can't wait for the next bit of military maneouvers in the desert. Oohhhh.
The line is only fading - we still have a long way to go before it can be totally erased. But it does address the "Western constituency" which believes in Mush's bluster that "Because of my 'Tsingtao specials", they did not attack during Parakram". His public can be fed anything and they believe him, because they want to. Others (from east and west) will be less sure that Pak Army can take care of itself during a showdown.

As someone has pointed out, the Pak PISS-pots are eerily silent. Even the crickets have stopped scratching their privates on that side of the border. I wish someone would slap the Hali fellow from his sleep atop his Remington typewriter, for what we are missing in all this "Prithvi game of tag " talk is the "lighter side of military issues" that he provides. Long time since I choked on the toddy :cry:
It is amazing that not a peep has come out of the Paki press about the ABM test by India. Usually when we do tests, within a few days if not the very next day the Paki newspapers would be full of descriptions of India's beligerance or our inability to match their superiority in (begged, borrowed, stolen, bought or gifted) weapons. They must be totally stunned and speechless by our ABM test. They must be in total shock and awe. :lol:
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Post by sanjaykumar »

India was known to brag that they knew about the Kunduz airlift 2001/2002 in real time ie they were monitoring Afghanistan air activity. LR radar is nothing new. India has a habit of revealing capabilities that they have had for some time ( wouldn't be surprised if there is a desi on the moon, now that they have articulated a possible mission for 2020).


It is amazing that not a peep has come out of the Paki press about the ABM test by India. Usually when we do tests, within a few days if not the very next day the Paki newspapers would be full of descriptions of India's beligerance or our inability to match their superiority in (begged, borrowed, stolen, bought or gifted) weapons. They must be totally stunned and speechless by our ABM test. They must be in total shock and awe.

Actually Pakistan has a tinpot dictacor much like NoKo, in both places people may be starving in the villages but the glorious nation of the proletariat/Quaideazam/bihishtewhatever is dogma and the relentless propoganda. The people must not be awoken. Unfortunately the people, even in Pakistan are not idiots.
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Post by hnair »

Lalmohan wrote:i dont think anyone in the west really assumed that the pak army could hold itself against a conventional assault from India... 71 was too strategically conclusive
As pious Gen Aziz would say in inner-madarassa gangsta "Mee homeejj PrianC and EricM aint cool with dat"

Not to mention "Speed dial#2s" of past and present COAS, retd Gen Tony Djinni of the USMarines :D
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Post by Lalmohan »

well homee EricM aint cool wid nuttin' 'cept a white carnation behind the ear... so he ain't nuttin' but a shorty

as for the djinnmeister... he would be aware of US wargaming scenarios of India-Pak limited overs matches... all of them end in disaster for the paks, so they all end up in test matches and then paks go reberj swing... you gettin' ma drift?
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Post by Vijay J »

Once the line is drawn it cannot be erased.

But it is obsolete, it serves no purpose.

The line cannot be used by Musharraf to win any rhetorical escalation.

If the only criterion for being president of Pakistan is the ability to pretend that you can defeat India, then that is no longer possible to do with nuclear threats.

Without a way to pretend you are capable of defeating India, you have no way of saying you are superior to your Pakistani army colleagues. Each general is at least as good as the other one. So all your carefully hand picked Generals will definetely consider killing you.

You can try claiming the support of Allah to defeat India, and say that you have a Jihadi group that will carry out nuclear strikes on India by smuggling weapons into India. But if you claim that kind of thing, that is Pakistani nuclear weapons are in Jihadi hands then there is no way you can be Musharraf. The Americans will kill you.

Alternatively you could ask your American friends to give you an ABM system just like the Indian one, if that happens then the Americans will demand a pound of Allah's flesh, which will cause you to lose support with Allah's men and they will kill you.

Without Army, Allah or America, how will you survive as President of Pakistan?

Without a President will Pakistan survive? or will Punjab run away to form its own Pakistan? and Sindh to form its own Sindhistan? and Balochistan to... you get my point?

The only way out of this is for Pakistan to abandon this over militaristic expression of its penis envy of India and try to do what Syed Adnan Kakakhail was saying, try to emulate the postive aspects of India's democratic values and tolerance. This will be the only way to ensure Pakistan's survival as a nation.

Pandering to the foolish antics of a discredited and corrupt military leadership will ill serve the interests of the Pakistani people and will certainly not assure General Musharraf of anything more than a grim epitaph in the history books.
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Post by ramana »

Pioneer, 5 Dec. 2006 from Hyd
Hatf, Shaheen no threat, say's Saraswat

Omer Farooq | Hyderabad

The chief of India's missile programme Vijaykumar Saraswat has said that no Pakistani missile poses any threat to India as the country has a missile to counter every Pakistani missile. Saraswat, who has recently supervised the first successful testing of the indigenous missile interception programme, told a news conference that Pakistan's missile do not pose any problem to the country. He said Agni III with a range of 5,000 kms was expected to be ready by early next year.

Replying to a question, Saraswat, the chief controller of Missile and Strategic Systems said that Pakistan's Hatf III was not a new missile and it was part of the short range missiles of Pakistan including Hatf I and Hatf II with a range of 180 kms. Hatf III had a range of 300 kms and Hatf 4,600 kms. The second part of the Pakistani missile programme include the long range Shaheen Missiles including Shaheen I and II with a range of 1,000 to 1,500 kms and 2,000 kms respectively.

Elaborating on how India was more than a match for Pakistani missiles, Saraswat said, "If you look at this range spectrum India has every missile in this range spectrum. We have Prithvi with 350 kms range, Agni I with 700 kms, and Agni II with 2,000 kms. Inshallah if our Agni III is ready then we will have a range of 5,000 kms," he said. He said that it was not important whether the country has one to one match for every missile. "What is important is that how accurate is our missile, whether we have the capability of producing these missiles in large numbers and that is what is needed and that is what we have today," he said.

In the context of the successfully tested air defence system to intercept the enemy missiles when he was asked whether India can export such technology to other countries, he said any decision on the export of technology will have to be taken very carefully and judiciously as it could be beneficial as well as harmful for the country.

"As far as a country's policy is concerned, it permits export of defensive technology such as Akash and Nag missiles but not offensive technology like Prithvi and Agni," he said. He said that the defensive technology had more potential for exports compared to the offensive technology.

Stressing that self-reliance is the 'mantra' of India in the field of defence technology, he said that in the missile interception programme all the components except the long range tracking radar were developed indigenously. The radar was developed with the co-operation from another country and now the Indian scientists had developed their capability to produce these radars on their own.

Rejecting the criticism that the DRDO was delaying its programmes, he said that the numerous sanctions on the transfer of missile technology had led to the delay.

"The delay was not because we do not know how to design or we don't know how to manufacture. Delay is due to certain components and technologies we are dependent on the west which is denying them to us. So now we have to build all those technologies as also the actual missile build up and that takes time," he said.

India's dependence on other countries for building its missiles was minimum.
I think we on BR stated this on the first thread itself.
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Post by Prem »

Let the DM or COAS play Advani 98 to Rub Jihadi Jiang's nose in dirt.

Baki janta need to be made aware of Baki military's weaknesess .
I hope the public pounding of Baki H&D by Indian side start soon.
We need to take control of escalastion ladder in both military and propoganda field. We did not play on our past successes and let Baki Military save the face. This is too good a oppertunity to pass on.
Bakidesh suffering with Bi-Polar need to be pushed into depression leading to civil war. The ABM provide a distinct oppertunity to unravel Bakistan by discrediting baki fauj.

Exercise Namaje -Janaja near Leh should start as soon as IA is ready.
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Post by JCage »

ramana wrote:Pioneer, 5 Dec. 2006 from Hyd
Hatf, Shaheen no threat, say's Saraswat

Omer Farooq | Hyderabad

Stressing that self-reliance is the 'mantra' of India in the field of defence technology, he said that in the missile interception programme all the components except the long range tracking radar were developed indigenously. The radar was developed with the co-operation from another country and now the Indian scientists had developed their capability to produce these radars on their own.
Christmas has come early, hallelujah! 8)

Once the AWACs and MMR are developed, we would have established a firm base in most types of modern high power radars.
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Post by Anoop »

Vijay J wrote:The Kidwai Line is obsolete.
Vijay, in other words, our NFU posture just got strengthened?
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Post by Prem »

JCage wrote:
ramana wrote:Pioneer, 5 Dec. 2006 from Hyd
Christmas has come early, hallelujah! 8)

Once the AWACs and MMR are developed, we would have established a firm base in most types of modern high power radars.

Wait for Uncle Jiang to BBS Greenpine and save Jihadi H&D.
India need to be stategically proactive in immediate neighborhood before the window of oppertunity close. Press home all the military advantages to create Stability in its 1000km security sphere.
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Post by Arun_S »

Here is the link to this report by Omer Farooq, in The Pioneer:

Hatf, Shaheen no threat, say's Saraswat
ramana wrote:Pioneer, 5 Dec. 2006 from Hyd
Hatf, Shaheen no threat, say's Saraswat

Omer Farooq | Hyderabad

The chief of India's missile programme Vijaykumar Saraswat has said that no Pakistani missile poses any threat to India as the country has a missile to counter every Pakistani missile. Saraswat, who has recently supervised the first successful testing of the indigenous missile interception programme, told a news conference that Pakistan's missile do not pose any problem to the country. He said Agni III with a range of 5,000 kms was expected to be ready by early next year.

Replying to a question, Saraswat, the chief controller of Missile and Strategic Systems said that Pakistan's Hatf III was not a new missile and it was part of the short range missiles of Pakistan including Hatf I and Hatf II with a range of 180 kms. Hatf III had a range of 300 kms and Hatf 4,600 kms. The second part of the Pakistani missile programme include the long range Shaheen Missiles including Shaheen I and II with a range of 1,000 to 1,500 kms and 2,000 kms respectively.

Elaborating on how India was more than a match for Pakistani missiles, Saraswat said, "If you look at this range spectrum India has every missile in this range spectrum. We have Prithvi with 350 kms range, Agni I with 700 kms, and Agni II with 2,000 kms. Inshallah if our Agni III is ready then we will have a range of 5,000 kms," he said. He said that it was not important whether the country has one to one match for every missile. "What is important is that how accurate is our missile, whether we have the capability of producing these missiles in large numbers and that is what is needed and that is what we have today," he said.

In the context of the successfully tested air defence system to intercept the enemy missiles when he was asked whether India can export such technology to other countries, he said any decision on the export of technology will have to be taken very carefully and judiciously as it could be beneficial as well as harmful for the country.

"As far as a country's policy is concerned, it permits export of defensive technology such as Akash and Nag missiles but not offensive technology like Prithvi and Agni," he said. He said that the defensive technology had more potential for exports compared to the offensive technology.

Stressing that self-reliance is the 'mantra' of India in the field of defence technology, he said that in the missile interception programme all the components except the long range tracking radar were developed indigenously. The radar was developed with the co-operation from another country and now the Indian scientists had developed their capability to produce these radars on their own.

Rejecting the criticism that the DRDO was delaying its programmes, he said that the numerous sanctions on the transfer of missile technology had led to the delay.

"The delay was not because we do not know how to design or we don't know how to manufacture. Delay is due to certain components and technologies we are dependent on the west which is denying them to us. So now we have to build all those technologies as also the actual missile build up and that takes time," he said.

India's dependence on other countries for building its missiles was minimum.
I think we on BR stated this on the first thread itself.
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Post by Dileep »

What about the modules for the radar? Did they use the same radio or different?
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Post by kgoan »

Strange. The techno babus rarely comment on anything Pakee related.

Is Saraswat/GoI trying to provoke a response of some sort - some variation of the usual braying - from the donkeys next door?

Are the Pakees being forced to wait while desperately trying to get our Asian Brothers to pony up a response which they can apply some green paint on - another Babur test perhaps?

And Group Captain, dear boy have you broken a wing? Why haven't you flapped about as usual? You better spit something out soon Group Captain. Otherwise all that venom and bile is going to psychologically choke you - as I have no doubt the good Humair Hashmi will confirm.
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Post by kgoan »

Oh, and I see that after being forced to give as payment to the Chinese most of the Pakee economy for those "lovely" sounding phrases - what was it again, oh yes: Pakistan and China: Higher than the Himalayas, Deeper than the Indian Ocean and Sweeter than Honey - some of them are now starting to be a little ungrateful:

Is China tilting towards India?
Have Sino-Pak ties reached the end?

These chappies are going to have to be diciplined or "diappeared" if the Pakees really want the Chinese to ante up a response.
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Post by Anoop »

kgoan wrote:Have Sino-Pak ties reached the end?

These chappies are going to have to be diciplined or "diappeared" if the Pakees really want the Chinese to ante up a response.
Not as long as such Pakistani supporters exist. From the article above:
Supporters of the government pointed to the 18 agreements signed between the two countries as proof of China’s longstanding commitment to Pakistan. These agreements included the much publicised Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the establishment of a free zone in Lahore for Chinese businesses, and a five year plan to boost bilateral trade between the two countries to $15 billion by 2011.
I'd say that the agreements mentioned here are proof of Pakistan's commitment to providing a captive market for Chinese goods, not the other way around.

Sometimes all you can do is shake your head at the Pakistanis.
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Post by hnair »

ramana wrote:Inshallah if our Agni III is ready then we will have a range of 5,000 kms," he said.[/b] He said that it was not important whether the country has one to one match for every missile.
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Did he actually use "Inshallah" ? I am liking this good Doc and his two layered approach at H&D destruction. First fire off the PAD missile for exo-Pak H&D puncturing, then use "Inshallah" to do the endo-Pak work.
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Post by Singha »

with a baksheesh economic model, the rich class are always adequately in the money.

sustainability for the poor class is not on the agenda. chinese manufacturing gains a new market of 200 mil in pakistan. these agreements with china effectively mean the end of pak manufacturing.

they have no choice. if they chinese stop extending military help all H&D will be gone , Unkil puts too many riders. Pak will be at BD level if the chinese pull out. so they will do anything to retain chinese interest including offering themselves as a conduit for china's grand plan in the gulf region.

"strategic location" will be milked.
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Post by Alok_N »

seeing as how ramana's injunction against one liners has been largely ignored, here's an old joke/quip ...
sanjaykumar wrote:India has a habit of revealing capabilities that they have had for some time ( wouldn't be surprised if there is a desi on the moon, now that they have articulated a possible mission for 2020).
Q: what did Neil Armstrong see upon landing on the moon?

A: a Kakke Di Hatti dhaba with Sardar-ji saying, "oye, tusi has come a long way, you must be hungry for some roti and saag" ....
ramana
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Post by ramana »

The media should ponder why it needed Pioneer's Omer Farooq to report the actual words of Dr. Saraswat. Maybe the psec SLIME(Self Loathing Indian Media) couldnt bear to see an Indian invoke Allah while speaking of strategic advantage over IRoT?

Arun has posted the link and one can see for oneself.
ShauryaT
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Post by ShauryaT »

I think what the good Dr. left unsaid was that no chinese missile posed a threat to India any more? True?
rocky
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Post by rocky »

Dr. Saraswat is really onto something with the Inshallah comment. In any case, it's HTH, DTO and STH.
sanjaykumar
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Post by sanjaykumar »

I do hope he did not say that-it would be in poor taste and only serves to dignify Pakis and their claim on Islam. Of course the Indian Muslim may not be amused at this gratuitous invocation either.
JCage
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Post by JCage »

I have seen and heard many non Muslims in India say Inshallah. It is nothing to go tut tut about and there is nothing gratuitous about it. Talk about invented taboos.
Last edited by JCage on 05 Dec 2006 11:33, edited 2 times in total.
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