Strategic Implications of India's ABM Test

K Mehta
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really strategic implication

Postby K Mehta » 06 Dec 2006 12:42

How come everybody missed this. the biggest strategic implication on BRF of the ABM test is that we will have to modify our possible Indian military scenario thread. dang who will do the editing. :wink:

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Postby menon » 06 Dec 2006 12:45

abhischekcc wrote:Did anyone notice this news???

Pake Ready to Give up Kashmir : Mushy 8)

So, the U-turn has begun. Pakistan is actually sueing for peace. Unbelievable. And all this while I was thinking that they would remain their usual irrational self, and try to escalate conflict. :D

SO, the test has had a positive effect on our security after all. At least that's what it looks like. It seems that pakistan has exhausted all its military options.


I am sorry to say this. But it seems our analysis is almost always on the basis that Pukis are some sort of dim wits. As someone who has gone there I can tell you they are not!! (Remember they are genetically related to us. Tho' it is rather a puking thought).
They have only one main aim as far as I can see. Take at least an inch of Indian land so that their conscience is set at rest for the loss of East Pakistan in 1971.
The other is to return to Rule Mogul India.
We have to understand that they will do ANYTHING to achieve their stated aims.
So every ploy has to be viewed seriously and analysed to find the convoluted game plan and countered. I am sure (and hope) our Babus know this.
Let us analyse their plans without emotions colouring judgement.
The present ploy, as someone pointed out, is a rehash on 2003 proposal. Why are we not putting forth counter proposals instead of remaining silent? I know silence is golden. At least in BRF we can put forth counter proposals for democratisation of POK?
Let me assure you their stand hasnot changed one iota.

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Postby Alok_N » 06 Dec 2006 13:11

menon wrote:Let me assure you their stand hasnot changed one iota.


yes, indeed BRF lacks in ways you have detected ... allow me to nominate you for the International 2006 Preaching to the Choir Award ... 8)

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Postby Drevin » 06 Dec 2006 13:58

I hope Musharaf isn't joking. What plesbicite :-? ...... It doesn't exist. And POK is Pakistan occupied Kashmir :!: ILLEGALLY OCCUPIED :idea:
He should just shut his trap and return POK.

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Postby Vijay J » 06 Dec 2006 20:20

Kgoan,

His entire survival has rested on his ability to convincingly repeat to his fellow Pakistanis that he is the one thing that India fears.

Now after the ABM test it does not appear as if he will be able to scare us ever again.

He can't come out and say that the Jihadis will deliver the Pakistani Bomb on foot, because then everyone will look to the Jihadis for leadership and Musharraf will hang from a lamp post courtesy of the Americans.

This is pretty much the end of the line for military rule in Pakistan. With one test we have just proven that the military cannot defend Pakistan at all and neither America nor China will instantly ride to Pakistan's rescue in a pinch.

Whatever that means for the defence of Pakistan, the key point is that the military can no longer be on top. The choice now is for the Pakistan Army to lie on its stomach and let the Islamists have their way with them, or bring in a real democracy where both the Military and the Islamists are kept on the sidelines and the rest of Pakistan pretends to have a say in things.

Can Musharraf do this? is he up to the challenge?

Does he want to go down in the history books as something more then someone who only blew his own trumpet?

The silence of the lambs is very interesting indeed.

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Postby Vijay J » 06 Dec 2006 20:23

The offer to abandon the long standing claim on Kashmir is reflective of Musharraf's desire to look like he is somehow managing the problems with India.

This reflects a weaker bargaining position.

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Postby Alok_N » 06 Dec 2006 20:34

the situation is similar to 1974 in the sense that India has just demonstrated something that can potentially upset the cart ... back then, the packee response was of the "eat grass" variety ... however, the global situation is different now ... or, is it? ... what about the rest of the world? ...

will this be the landmark event that busts MTCR? ... India's entry into a club is a signal for other powers to proliferate in order to lessen the impact of India's emergence ...

one possible outcome is that there will now be a series of covert ABM assistance programs started ...

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Postby Vijay J » 06 Dec 2006 20:46

Alokji,

I said earlier that it is either this possibly hamas style democracy or give them Patriot system and risk it falling into China or Osama's hands.

Ultimately America or China has to bail Musharraf out. That is why both musharraf's mouthpieces and the people in US and China have been very silent.

MTCR died decades ago when China gave Pakistan missiles.

Lets see what happens.

Anyway we know what happens when both America and China support Pakistan, but what happens when neither party knows what to do?

It is one thing to eat grass in exchange for something, but if you are only eating grass then what is the point of it?

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Postby enqyoobOLD » 06 Dec 2006 21:24

The natural Paki response to the Indian ABM success will be to develop Paki JDAM, on the same "crash" basis as Bhutto and Xerox Khan operated from 1970s onwards.

Question: There is now clear documented proof that the terrorist bombing of Mumbai trains was orchestrated and funded from Pakistan (Bhagalpur L-e-T base).

Where is the Indian response to that? Why is Bhagalpur not glowing yet?

Q.E.D.

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Postby asharma » 06 Dec 2006 21:51

I am not sure if ABM or anything we do in the will change Pukestan- even if Mush's mush is mush, so what? Democrazy in Pukistan still does not change their anti-India DNA........ the solution to the Pubes is not so easy, and in fact may perhaps get worse for some time- see below

IMVVHO, this changes HUGELY the dynamic vis-a-vis China (please remember that we already have theatre conventional superiority against the Pandas and have demostrated so, quietly but still clearly nevertheless), and against the the elephant in the room - this test is a clear message, even if premature, against the unique global strike capability i think they consider essential to maintain their reach

The two are tactical partners in this respect......

So wait for responses from Foggy Bottom and Panda, routed via the Pubes and Beedees this time around, I would guess...

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Postby Vijay J » 06 Dec 2006 21:57

Enqyoob,

If Musharraf wants he can stage a demonstration showing SSG's ability to deploy a nuke behind Indian defence lines but then India will reciprocate by showing similar capabilities on the SF side.

For the SSG to penetrate into Delhi, they have to have support from Indian domestic Jihadis, so in effect the Pakistani bullock cart bomb will become a Jihadi nuclear option.

The down side to this is that that they can't develop the JDAM publicly at all. Privately as long as there are infiltration channels there will be a JDAM option so nothing new there.

Musharraf can't publicly weild a JDAM as a threat over India and still be seen as the last thing between preventing the Osama from getting a bomb. If Musharraf hold the JDAM out publicly then he will be seen as betraying America's trust. This will be very bad publicity at a time when President Bush is already in a public hole with regards Iraq. Such an embarassment of the Bush government is unlikely to find favour in the US.

It has been possible so far to put the blame for failure in Iraq on Rumsfeld and Chalabi. This will not be an option with Musharraf. Musharraf could have been blamed on Powell and Armitage and both men could have been publicly humiliated to save President Bush's face, but they are no longer in government so this can't be done right now. Bush will end up taking the fall if Musharraf changes sides. And already Bush is taking the fall for a lot of things from Iraq to North Korea. Luckily somehow the Iraq Study Group has been able to recover some measure of the American military's trust by openly recommending a break with President Bush's policy in Iraq, but if this unbridled fall continues, the word "Bush" is going to become anathema in American politics and that is certainly not going to fly in the US. Who wants to become "downstairs people" again? no no I really doubt this is going to happen. Jeb won in Florida, why lose all the positive feeling from that to another mess?

The only way the Pakistanis can publicly weild a JDAM is if someone other than Musharraf, perhaps a Hamas style democratic formation rises to power. That way the connection to the Jihadis is implicit and need not be publicly stated.

Which is why I was saying, the only way out here is that there be democracy in Pakistan, with a Jihadi coalition at its head. This means there will be daily anti-American acts but fundamentally there will be no change on Pakistan's position on real issues and the JDAM option can be left publicly unsaid while whatever deterrence can be gained from it will be available.

Ofcourse if ask Alokji suggests that there is a big advance in HEP in India, and we are able to build a remote detector that can discover JDAMs, then again we will have shown our technical superiority in this field.

That doesn't really matter to the Pakistanis all they are keen to show is that inspite of everything we may have that is better than them, they are still superior to us by virtue of the fact that they are better muslims than us.

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Postby kgoan » 06 Dec 2006 22:45

I'm not convinced that the JDAM, (Jihadi Delivered Atomic Munition, for those who've come in late to this conversation), issue is as relevant in the Indo-Pak context.

The real issue is one of power and control. Having a nuke isn't the issue - being able to *deliver* it is. Delivery is *everything*.

See, a nuke is like a bullet. Having a bullet is nice. What makes it useful is the gun. Delivery of nukes *is* the gun.

Power is not holding a bullet to someones head - its holding a gun to someones head. Without the gun the bullet is useless.

It is the guy who holds the gun who has the power.

Now in PakeeLand, the power is with the military. More accurately the Army. That's why they focus on missiles which the Generals control. If the Babur is nuke tipped and navy controlled, the gun goes to the Navy. If the new F-16's are used to deliver nukes, the power shifts to the Air Force - and the PAF plays it's own power games.

That may be okay as power sharing with the PN and AF, although unlikely. But; the same thing happens with the Jihadis.

If the Pak Army, under Mush or anyone else, gives the delivery mechanism to the Jihadis, its all over for them. They've just handed the gun to someone else. And the power.

Nor is there much chance of the "bullock cart nuke" going to be delivered by army types - because no matter who they choose, if the Corps Commanders don't all walk alonside the cart, they've handed ultimate power to whoever controls the cart.

Not going to happen, in my view.

(I've spent a fair amount of time looking at PA officer training - every source I've seen says the same thing - from the time they're in the Academy, every officer is trained to look at the political objectives of *every* action. Look up what the Pak Navy and PAF types say about PA officer training).

The only way, that I can currently see, that the Pak Army Command can maintain its institutional control is to hold the gun. That means that delivery must be by missiles, which they have total control over. Vital point: Missiles ensure that the Pak generals have *collective* control, since a numebr of them play key roles to keep it in working order.

They simply cannot give that up. And that's why the silence and the current situation in PakLand.

It's not just Musharraf.

Recall folks that *every* flag officer in the PA currently is a Mush promoted one over the last five years. The pre coup folks are largely gone. And *everyone* of them has one and only one type of combat experince - Killing muslims on behalf of the Great Satan.

Think about the bind they're in just now. They're in positions of power *because* they can kill muslims on behalf of Amreeka Bahadur. *That* is why the Americans are so sure of Musharraf and his Generals - they have *nowhere* else to go.

True they haven't burnt all their bridges and have kept a "safety" card with the Jihads in Afghanistan and Kashmir - but their real power, and safety for killing muslims, lies in the gun they hold.

And that's just about disappeared if the US and China don't come to their rescue.

That, I would say, is the game right now.

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Postby enqyoobOLD » 06 Dec 2006 23:02

The "J" in the JDAm is a misnomer, since the "J" is nothing more or less than a member of the Pakistan Army of Islam (Gen. Mohd Aziz Khan, commanding).Remember dear Aziz, the bugger who was awarded the "Legend of Merit" by the worthies at the US War College outside DupleCity?

So the "JDAM" is simply a "Fourth Protocol" (Frederick bin Forsyth) scenario. As the Pak Dictator Cycle reaches 315 degrees, the JDAM will be about the only herrowic scenario left for the Jarnails who are facing lamp-post trips to Houristan anyway. Therein is the danger.

Equally, a Corpse Commando stationed in, say, Quetta, may see a JDAM mission as win-win. He can hide out in the Bugti caves for a few days until the (glowing) dust settles over the 'Pindi crater, and then he's Caliph of Karachi, herrow of the Faithful.

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Postby Vijay J » 07 Dec 2006 00:17

Okay I see the point so lets play the game even more slowly.

Their gun looks useless.

They have to find a new gun probably imported from China or America. If that is not available then they have to show they can still shoot with this old gun. Which means they have to give the gun to the Jihadis at least in the public say that they are giving the gun to the Jihadis because the Jihadis have better aim.

I propose that this public gesture is impossible for Musharraf himself to sustain. The contradictions in his public policy will become too numerous to contain causing the entire media show to collapse.

The jernails backing Musharraf may have been happy so far, someone has his toys to play with in Multan, someone has his committees to head up, someone gets give contracts to family members, another fellow gets to take bribes when buying arms, somebody else gets to tax the heroin trade from Afghanistan but this entire racket relies upon Musharraf appearing to be a credible leader of Pakistan. They can go on playing their parts if and only if Musharraf can look like a viable leader. Kgoan have I accounted for the coterie?

Without a clear focus for the fuhrerprinzip operating inside the PA, the house of cards falls down. This is the collapse that people have been thinking about for a while. This is the situation where Musharraf is no longer a clear leader in Pakistan, and other jernails think they can vie for power.

Enqyoob's scenario is interesting. What if one of the jernails on the corpse commanders gets the idea that the route to becoming a big man in Pakistan is by encouraging Jihadi adventurism? covertly supporting a very effective deviation from the rigged up Jihadis acts that Musharraf stages as part of his public campaign proving his indispensibility? remember that scene boys when the Jihadi's men jump out of their truck and run towards the podium hurling grenades? and the grenades go off behind the podium and only one man survives miraculously? remember the newscast I am talking about?

Can a rogue corpse commander set in motion events that push us close to a breakdown of deterrence? just to catapault himself to power?

Fourth Protocol operationally relied on making it look like the attack was not of soviet origin. That is not going to be an option with Pakistan right now. Anything happens, we will know it was them, then whoever we find, we kill. end of story.

So I feel it is likely to be contained in that sense, but this seems like it can diverge very fast from a controlled scenario?
Last edited by Vijay J on 07 Dec 2006 02:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Dileep » 07 Dec 2006 00:29

On kgoan's line:

Yes, the man who holds the gun has the power.

But people gets killed/hurt not only with guns. When the gun jams, a guy with a poison dart blowpipe has power. that is when people KNOW that the gunslinger can't sling a blowpipe.

Enough similes. Claiming JDAM is out of question for Mush/PA. F-16 ain't strong/convincing enough. So, what they do?

NOTHING! That is the problem. That is why the orifices on things like Hali, Mazari etc are silent.

So, if the gun is jammed and Billy the Kid can't do nothing, Spotted Horse, the injun will raise with his blowpipe.

The jihadis have no problem in doing anything, including JDAM. Already they hold a lot of influence. So, what prevents from some mulla emulating Omar? "These kafir army can't protect you. We can, using JDAM"

And I am sure half of the PA would happily go taliban.

AoA!

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Postby John Snow » 07 Dec 2006 00:50

Overt Nuke testing of PRC maal by TSP is like castling in chess game.

1) they have achieved (momentarily) parity with India, focussed the NPAs on India, drawn the attention to J&K issue as a potential Nuke flash light al la kargil

all these gimmicks gradually faded away
then TSP went into hyper mode on Jihadi front instigate every four lettered terrorist organization, with unkil winking to cover his butt in Afghanistan and Iraq, even that charm on unkil faded away.

2) With the new clash of prithivis in aakash and unkil making them Nuke Nude, Mushy book being utter flop, No wonder he is think out of Mush these days but his inherent incapapcity to think shows up in his ideas of J&K as autonomous region rule by TSP and India. Again this is another stunt for NPAs to sing and dance around him.

3) The only tool that is left in his hands is to insitigate the bunch of infiltrated traitors and Mualayam singhs in poloitical arena and few dupattas and rams in the guise of jurnos to try his last hand to destabilize our way of life.
This is the only front on which India has seen weakness.

So our armed forces have done their job, our scientists are trying their darn best to do some thing with limited funds and autonomy in their fields. Its now upto our Babus and Police wallahs to stand up to netas fry their balls if they try anything anti national.

If this is demonstartated then the bonly option left to RAPE and Pakis is implosion from with in. That we should hasten and ease the pain of Pakjabis..

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Postby Vijay J » 07 Dec 2006 01:10

Dileep's idea makes Enyoob's scenario seem more likely.

Summary of scenario:

A leadership crisis in the Pakistan Army urges a rogue corps commander to encourage an Islamist power grab. Islamists high on heroin and seeking vengeance against Musharraf, take the bait and push out Musharraf. Amereeka Bahadur and Chinese Girlfriend step in at the last minute to save the day and prevent complete Islamist takeover.

Rogue Jernail becomes toast of Pindi town, even more popular than Shoaib Akhtar, he regarded as the new Savoury of Pakistan!

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Postby Neupane » 07 Dec 2006 01:25

Akash, Nag ready for user trials: Antony
Edited as not relevant to thread.

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Postby Prem » 07 Dec 2006 02:03

Dileep wrote:On kgoan's line:

Yes, the man who holds the gun has the power.

But people gets killed/hurt not only with guns. When the gun jams, a guy with a poison dart blowpipe has power. that is when people KNOW that the gunslinger can't sling a blowpipe.

Enough similes. Claiming JDAM is out of question for Mush/PA. F-16 ain't strong/convincing enough. So, what they do?

NOTHING! That is the problem. That is why the orifices on things like Hali, Mazari etc are silent.

So, if the gun is jammed and Billy the Kid can't do nothing, Spotted Horse, the injun will raise with his blowpipe.

The jihadis have no problem in doing anything, including JDAM. Already they hold a lot of influence. So, what prevents from some mulla emulating Omar? "These kafir army can't protect you. We can, using JDAM"

And I am sure half of the PA would happily go taliban.

AoA!


Dileep, Bisham Pitamah once asked Bakis on their TV about Baki preference in chosing the way committing suicide in case of Nuke attack on India.

JDAM is not an option, after JDAM,there wont be anything left in Bakistan to rule. Bakis has mainly non-military options left. Centre has put break on pyar-mohabbat gushing out of Lahore as a first step to prevent exercising this kind of option. Bakistan has to make their own decision to live like a civilized neighbor, no assurace or vague promises will be forthcoming from India.
Before Manmohan Singh lands in Lahore in March , Mushy has to make his mind to surrender meekly .Manmohan Singh has strong dislike for wasting time. Uncle Sam and Jiang have few months window to cushion Mushy's Mush. We will know by March end when snow starts to melt and hunting season starts. If Mushiya is naked , he wil send Jihadis by busloads.
In the meantime watch for for Baboor test launch from Agosta to save some H&D.

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Postby vsudhir » 07 Dec 2006 02:13

Here's one scenario that IMVHO merits consideration even though it has not yet been explicitly stated though has probably been implcitly accounted for (and rejected as unlikely to pass).

What if Mush and buddies pretend nothing happened? What if Mush and buddies, so expert at blanket denials adopt a 'discredit India's ABM' approach and publicly at least maintain that their 'gun' stuill works fine (knowing full well privately that they'll never really have to use the gun, just to show it and carry the ponzi show on).

The media are unwitting (witless, rather) allies in this game. Amrika and cheen will both also go along with such a strat if adopted by Paki genrolls. See, that way everybody is happy. My main point is the outside world can wilfully choose to close its eyes to DRDO's achievements and continue playing as if nothing has happened. At the moment it appears it would also be in their interest to do so. What are our options then?

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Postby Vijay J » 07 Dec 2006 02:20

Are we putting the cart before the horse?

Even if they claim they have Undersea Launched Babur, so what?

Everyone knows their bombs are too heavy to actually fit on the Babur.

They will also how to show a warhead or risk being called out publicly again by a sea based test of PADE.

What does it matter where they fire their missile from we have a way of shooting their missiles down.
Last edited by Vijay J on 07 Dec 2006 02:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Vijay J » 07 Dec 2006 02:27

Amreeka Bahadur and Chinese Girlfriend can go on pretending but what about Corpse Commanders, why will they pretend?

Sure fine as long as everyone is eating well but what if someone is slightly hungrier than the others? how much can Musharraf keep feeding hungry mouths?

Why give up this golden chance to kick Musharraf's musharraf and become the big man of Pakistan?

Okay so they pretend for how long?

From this point on without a counter to PADE, India will dictate all the terms in the dialogue. If Musharraf can't face up to this, then India will demand that he withdraw unilaterally from all of Kashmir not just Siachen.

Do you see there is no incentive for this to remain quiet?

None of the main bhi Musharrafs gain anything by keeping quiet.

They lose big if Musharraf lets India wrestle the initiative in Kashmir.

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Postby Prem » 07 Dec 2006 02:31

Vijay J wrote:Are we putting the cart before the horse?

Even if they claim they have Undersea Launched Babur, so what?

Everyone knows their bombs are too heavy to actually fit on the Babur.

They will also how to show a warhead or risk being called out publicly again by a sea based test of PADE.


Mushy will make the claim to convince proud Baki fools to buy time till both sr and jr Uncle make up their mind to pat their Munna.
The issue is not of Baki answering India but to figure out the intentions of their mai-baps. Game is not over yet, at least not till they react.

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Postby rocky » 07 Dec 2006 02:31

Vijay J wrote:Everyone knows their bombs are too heavy to actually fit on the Babur.
Precisely. I am not very sure people understand this well enough.

There is a reason why the Packees had to import ballistic missiles along with the nukes.

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Postby Prem » 07 Dec 2006 02:40

Vijay J wrote:Amreeka Bahadur and Chinese Girlfriend can go on pretending but what about Corpse Commanders, why will they pretend?

Sure fine as long as everyone is eating well but what if someone is slightly hungrier than the others? how much can Musharraf keep feeding hungry mouths?

Why give up this golden chance to kick Musharraf's musharraf and become the big man of Pakistan?

Okay so they pretend for how long?

From this point on without a counter to PADE, India will dictate all the terms in the dialogue. If Musharraf can't face up to this, then India will demand that he withdraw unilaterally from all of Kashmir not just Siachen.

Do you see there is no incentive for this to remain quiet?

None of the main bhi Musharrafs gain anything by keeping quiet.

They lose big if Musharraf lets India wrestle the initiative in Kashmir.


I have been saying this from the beginning. Attack and expedite the reaction from Munna and their Mai-bapps.
Need to do Advani 98, throw the challenge and expose the naked emperor Mushy.Instead of scientists invoking Inshallah, let Antony or Omar Abdullah do the needful.
Exposing Mushy open the room for all kind of players to step in , domestic and foreign, jihadis and saints. Then sit back , watch , buy, support and control the hangama.

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Postby Vijay J » 07 Dec 2006 02:42

Yes I agree average Pakistani doesn't know the difference between a nuclear warhead and a samosa but what about Jernails and corpse commanders?

They know the difference between halal meat and pork sausage?

They know there is no warhead for the babur.

So why will they pretend that Musharraf has the big bomb when they know he has nothing?

I think they will distance themselves from him the first chance they get.

Yes this will have nothing to do with Mai Baap, if Mai Baap cannot bachao Pakistan what is the point of calling the Mai Baap?

Unless Amreeka Bahadur gives Musharraf Patriot missiles instead of F16s this is the end of the road for Musharraf.

If Amreeka Bahadur give Musharraf Patriots, then something will have to be done to convince the Jihadis that this is not going to be paid for in their blood.

From a someone who was alive in 1979, you may recall that there was a huge arms shipment to Shah of Iran in the hope that the bribes from the deal would keep his officers loyal where did all those arms end up?

Does Amreeka Bahadur want its vaunted ABM shield to become the focus of an Iran-Contra style scam a few years from now?

I don't know but it does explain why Abbaji was so tearful in florida recently. What a terrible state of affairs.

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Postby Vijay J » 07 Dec 2006 02:46

Prem,

No no, mantriji will talk peace and mohabbat.

Scientist can say anything, it is not policy, it is merely his opinion.

Anyway Perkovich said there are Rambos in the scientists. Let prove him right, so that Pakistanis have to dance with Perkovich's ideas in their heads.

With regards Kashmir I am 50000% in support of a unification plan. I think all gem mining operations in Northern Areas should be licensed and taxed from Srinagar.
Last edited by Vijay J on 07 Dec 2006 02:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Prem » 07 Dec 2006 02:47

Vijay ,

We need to be sure.
For once , India need to take the initiative and start taking control of her backyard. The public slapping of Bakis will be a lesson for Bangladesh and others . Right now is the opprtunity to wrestle the initiative from Mushy and his mai-bapps . Why is UPA Govt not doing so?

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Postby Vijay J » 07 Dec 2006 02:51

No No Prem, if UPA shows spine how people will say it is spineless.

If people don't say it is spineless, then how will Pakistanis believe their jernails when they say that Indian government lacks political will to carry out cold start.

Without the ability to say UPA is spinless, Pakistani Jernails will not have leg to stand on.

If UPA says aar paar ki ladai and badal bijlee and dishum dishum then Pakistani Jernails will all collectively book tickets on the next PIA flight and everything will fall apart catastrophically.

You see my point. Better to let Rambos in the scientists do it. Anyway Rambos have been living under death threats for twenty years now, its their time to give as good as they gotten so far.

kgoan
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Postby kgoan » 07 Dec 2006 02:54

Vijay:

It appears that it will be something like that. As long as the New Savoury can promise that he can conquer Afghans, get Kashmir, classify Uyghurs as nonmuslim and be moderately enlightened enough to stand upto Amreeka without getting bombed, it'll work.

Some points:

>> they have to give the gun to the Jihadis
>> The jihadis have no problem in doing anything . . . using JDAM

Problem is, then they have to worry about the free Najibullah Dance classes some of them may have to attend.

>> Kgoan have I accounted for the coterie?

Pretty much but there's one that's vital - the Agriculture Dept of the PA. No Kidding. That's what they use to keep the middle management biradaris (cols, lt cols majors etc) of the PA happy. (Middle managements 3 P's - Plots, Prestige and Power over their equivalent civilian types.)

>> Without a clear focus for the fuhrerprinzip operating inside the PA

Yes. I think the 90s had a serious effect on the PA - they concluded that the whole "power-behind-the-throne" thing had the fatal flaw that they were, literally, behind the throne not on it.

Without being on the throne, they simply cannot keep middle management happy. And its middle management that is the coal face of much of what they do. It's absolutely crucial.

To put it in another way, Musharraf says "we'll be like Egypt today and tomorrow become like Thailand/Turkey". Problem is, what he's delivering is Myanmar. And the middle management biradari simply won't accept that. At least I can't see them accepting that.

>> Army of Islam . . . the JDAM will be about the only herrowic scenario left for the Jarnails who are facing lamp-post trips to Houristan anyway.

A possibility. But in the history of Pakistan and for that matter the Punjabi Mussalman, herrowic types in the upper levels are rarer than hens teeth.

I feel the whole "we're crazy enough to kill ourselves and you" is a con job. And it was exposed as such during Op Parakram.

There's a point here about the power structure in PakLand that folk need to grasp. There are no rules to protect anyone like we take for granted in a civilised state structure.

Protecting life, limb, property and honour is, literally, through family, friends and who you know. Power games in Pakeeland are dangerous.

The "who-you-know" bit translates into birdari groups where folk all protect each other and scratch each others back. This of course happens in other places, but in PakeeLand its their life, property and everything else on the line. The birdaris are therefore as close as clans/tribes.

This is something the Americans don't seem to grok. If they get one smooth talking Sethi replacing a frothing Jihadi they're happy. But nothing changes because both frothing Jihdi and smooth talking RAPE could belong to the same birdari.

That is what counts.

i.e. It ain't *individual* behaviour it's *collective* behaviour we need to watch for. It's the *collective* silence of the Pakee blathering class that's so stunning.

Mush covers his musharraf because he formed a Syed birdari group in the PA officer corps that seems to cross all ranks.

Yes generals, mullahs and RAPE's, are all the same lunatics in a sense. But the system they work in is still a pyramid. And its vital to understand that the whole Jihadi scenario works to keep specific birdari groups on the top of the pyramid. The ones who have, in the same General Aziz's evocative phrase, the Jihadis "by the scruff of their neck".

That, I think, is what makes the situation now so interesting - whether the current lots grip on the "scruff of their necks" is loosening because of the ABM and Musharraf and the current lots inability to protect them from India.

And that, possibly, is where Vijay's New Savoury steps in.

Lets see how it goes.

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Postby ramana » 07 Dec 2006 03:13

We need to look farther than TSP. Excellent editorial from Martin Seiff

India making progress

India making progress in bid to become major military power
Martin Sieff
Friday 1st December, 2006 (UPI)



India's successful test of its own anti-ballistic Prithvi missile this week still leaves the country a long way from fielding its own, home-produced short- and intermediate- range BMD systems. But it wasn't chickenfeed either.

In the test, as the Times of India reported, an upgraded version of the Prithvi shot down a conventional Prithvi at high altitude over the Bay of Bengal. The interceptor was launched from India's Integrated Test Range at Chandipur-on-sea and the test rocket from Wheeler Island in Orissa.

The success came as an enormous relief to India's long-embattled and much criticized Defense and Research Development Organization, or DRDO. As we have noted in these columns before, over the past three decades, DRDO has invested billions of dollars into high prestige, ambitious long-range ballistic missile, high-tech light combat aircraft, a new main battle tank and even a touted nuclear submarine with almost nothing to show for it.

We also monitored earlier this year the embarrassing failure of a test of India's ambitious Agni III intercontinental ballistic missile which, if successfully developed and deployed, would give New Delhi the deterrent capability to fire nuclear warheads at any city in China including Beijing.

Rajiv Singh in an authoritative analysis published by the b-domain.com Web site Wednesday gave important details about what was in effect a new Indian-developed ABM interceptor.

'According to DRDO officials, the new missile had inertial guidance in mid-course and active-seeker guidance (i.e. a radar-seeking warhead) in the terminal phase,' Singh wrote. 'While the first stage of the interceptor was similar to the Prithvi missile, its second stage was a totally new segment. The yet to be named 'high supersonic' interceptor missile has been developed by the DRDO as part of an 'exo-atmospheric intercept system' designed to 'hit-to-kill' incoming ballistic missiles.'

Singh noted that DRDO officials told reporters the new ABM could detect a target in less than 30 seconds and launching an interceptor at it within 50 seconds. 'According to the officials, many technologies, like high-maneuverability of the interceptor missile, were validated in the test. The flight time for nuclear capable missiles launched from Pakistan is a bare 5 to 8 minutes,' he wrote.

Monday's successful test was also an excellent omen for A. K. Anthony, India's recently appointed defense minister.

However, as Singh observed, 'Defense analysts at home (in India) adopted a prudent posture with regard to the development. They had sufficient reasons to be prudent given DRDO's patchy track record in developing high-tech defense systems for the country's defense services.'

He noted that the DRDO had previously 'failed to operationalize the much touted 9-kilometer (5.4 mile) range Trishul and the 25-km (15 mile) range Akash air-defense missiles. These missiles have been undergoing 'successful' tests for as long as anyone can remember.'

Nevertheless, as Singh acknowledged, 'The successful missile interception test now allows India to stand alongside a few countries, such as the U.S., Russia and Israel, that possess a missile defense capability.'

The upgraded Prithvi ABM interceptor appears to rank with the U.S. Patriot PAC-3 system, Russia's S-300 and Israel's Arrow in its intended ability to intercept short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. However, the Patriot, the S-300 and the Arrow are all deployed, much tested systems. Even after the extremely positive results of Monday's test, the upgraded Prithvi ABM still clearly as a long way to go to achieve that status.

Indeed, the United States has been trying to sell the Patriot to India as part of the increasingly close strategic weapons cooperation between the two nations. However, so far the Indians have balked at that. Also Singh noted what he called 'informed speculation over the years ... that India may already have deployed a few batteries of the Russian S-300 system as an interim arrangement.'

Given the continuing warm ties between India and Russia, the huge high-tech weapons orders that the current Congress-UPA dominated government and the previous Baharataya Janata Party-led one have both given to Russia and the exceptional enthusiasm for Russian aerospace technology shown for so many years by long-time Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes, that 'informed speculation' seems extremely likely.

Singh noted that the Prithvi-I, 'first tested in 1988, has a range of 150 km (90 miles) and deploys a conventional or low-yield nuclear warhead for use against troops or armored formations. Its two variants, Prithvi-II and Prithvi-III, with lesser payloads, have an increased range of 250 km (150 miles) and 350 km (210 miles) respectively. While the Prithvi-II was first tested in January 1996, Prithvi-III underwent its first test firing in October 2004. The Indian Army has already inducted Prithvi- I and II into service.'

At the end of the day, when all the cautions, caveats and qualifiers have been made, a crucial underlying fact remains: India has now shown its capability to home produce an effective anti-ballistic missile prototype. France, Britain, Germany, China and Japan have not yet developed the capability to make one of these by themselves, though Japan will certainly is on a crash program to do so with extensive U.S. cooperation and China is already lavishly supplied with S-300 systems, and possibly others, bought from Russia.

The strategic balance of the world therefore shifted on Monday. India took a very large step indeed and served notice that it has much to give, as well as to receive, in its strategic weapons and BMD cooperation with the United States.


Wonder if BRF is being read as these conclusions match what was thought about in this forum.

Prem
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Postby Prem » 07 Dec 2006 03:15

Hmm, Intersting,
Bakis are in chakarvihu without Abhimanyu or Bhim.
It will be interesting to see how they get out of this without REAL Mai-bapp helping them.

Bakistan has one unexplored solid option though . Pakjabis might pull out a strategic surprise and adopt a new Mai-Bapp.

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Postby ramana » 07 Dec 2006 03:17

And on Dec 5, 2006
Martin Sieff wrote

India Prefers Pad to Patriot


India`s Defense Research and Development Organization now wants to build another missile that could intercept warheads and missiles far closer to ground level, the India Defense Web site, or india-defense.com, reported Saturday.

The DRDO is riding high after the successful interception and destruction of a test ballistic missile by their upgraded new Prithvi anti-ballistic missile interceptor on Nov. 27 over the Bay of Bengal.

Within a week of that achievement, India`s top ballistic missile scientist Vijay Kumar Saraswat told a press conference Saturday, 'Within the next three to four months the DRDO is planning to carry out another missile interception in the endo-atmospheric zone,' india-defense.com reported.

Saraswat, who is Chief Controller of India`s missile program and project director of India`s air defence missiles, was also outspoken in announcing that India definitely would not seek to buy the already developed U.S. Patriot PAC-3 system or the Israeli Arrow. 'We are only at the beginning and at this stage co-development or outright acquisition cannot be counted on,' he said, according to the report.

Saraswat`s comments appear to deal a mortal blow to U.S. hopes of selling the Patriot PAC-3 in large numbers to India. As our companion BMD Focus column reported last week, India`s UPA-Congress government has resisted U.S. efforts to get New Delhi to buy the Patriots. There have also been unsubstantiated reports that Russia has quietly supplied India with its own S-3000 anti-ballistic missile interceptors until the Indians can home-develop an ABM of their own to face the nuclear ballistic missile threat from neighboring Pakistan.

Saraswat acknowledged, however, that it would still be several years before India could confidently deploy its own home-built anti-ballistic missile defense system.

'He admitted that the Pad was still a technology demonstrator and said it would need another half-a-dozen tests to validate it as a missile shield,' india-defense.com said.

Saraswat also revealingly acknowledged that India wanted to follow the examples of the United States and Japan in trying to develop a two-tier, or two-layered BMD system with both 'exo-atmospheric and endo-atmospheric interception capabilities to match short-reaction threats.'

The DRDO`s upgraded Prithvi therefore will be expected to play the role of the sea-launched SM-3 missiles in the U.S. missile defense system and eventually the Pad will play the role of the U.S. Patriot PAC-3.



The last bit is a little confusion between AAD and PAD. Its the AAD that is said to be like PAC-3 but with twice the range(30km versus 15 km for PAC3). So TSP chew on this.

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Postby svinayak » 07 Dec 2006 04:02

Vijay J wrote:

I don't know but it does explain why Abbaji was so tearful in florida recently. What a terrible state of affairs.

Abbaji has lot of stuff to be tearful. But this one monster has been created by Abbaji thinking that it will work in the long run.

ramana
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Postby ramana » 07 Dec 2006 04:11

VijayJ wrote
The silence of the lambs is very interesting indeed.


Should have read goat lovers. The silence is because TSP has 'gone for tea'

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Postby svinayak » 07 Dec 2006 04:25

Watch out for some news and hints about a change of order in Pakiland

NRao
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Postby NRao » 07 Dec 2006 04:28

MoD.in reports

Select the 2005-2006 report:

Page 88:
The Navy has accepted Dhanush on its off shore Patrol Vessel

Prem
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Postby Prem » 07 Dec 2006 04:29

ramana wrote:VijayJ wrote
The silence of the lambs is very interesting indeed.


Should have read goat lovers. The silence is because TSP has 'gone for tea'


Yeah, preparing to serve tea at Rahim Yar Khan :lol:
To Kaffir Indoo army general onlee.
Dont forget the Tiger Niazi's famous pen to be carried by Khali onlee.
Imagine a picture of Mushia with JJsingh onlee.
Indoo Genrals with JJ initials has been unlucky for Baki onlee.
Alhamaduilliha, so many conicidences.. onlee.

ramana
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Postby ramana » 07 Dec 2006 04:32

Prem, You need to say it quick in English and interpet in desi.

Prem
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Postby Prem » 07 Dec 2006 04:35

ramana wrote:Prem, You need to say it quick in English and interpet in desi.


My posts for Bakis onlee. :lol: They understand.


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