Agni test of 09 January 2003

ramana
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by ramana »

Good show for your simulator Arun!

Meantime more heartburn for TSP spokespersons:

From pti link posted by Amitabh and linked above by Arun_S

PTI PRINT EMAIL
AGNI-SERIES
NEW DELHI, JAN 9 (PTI)
Encouraged by the second flawless test firing of the short range variant of the nuclear capable AGNI ballastic missile today, India plans to carry out five more tests in the next few weeks before its induction.

The surface to surface missile, which can strike targets upto 800 kms, was for the first time test-fired with a one- tonne payload proving the capability of the missile to carry tactical nuclear warheads, which are usually of that weight, highly placed Defence Ministry sources said here.

{So strategic could be lighter or heavier! Also see the word tactical being used in connotation of India. I think the NFU will be revised.}

A Defence Ministry release here said the mission objectives of today's launch was "fully met" as confirmed by the network of ground radars telemetry stations and visual observations from the intended impact point.

Lauding the scientists for the flawless mission, Defence Minister George Fernandes, who witnessed the test firing in Chandipur on sea in Orissa, said it enhanced India's capability in deployment of such surface to surface missile systems.

The sources said a series of seven developmental tests flights of the shorter range variant of AGNI-I missile were planned and each would be carried out with a payload ranging between one and three tonnes.

{ So what is this three tonne payload they are talking about? Is it conventional or super heavy special payload? Is this the boosted fission super heavy model that SBM seeks info about?}

Today's launch comes a day after Pakistan inducted the HATF-V Ghauri missile.

India's AGNI-I which is solid fuelled, unlike Pakistan's Liquid fuelled Ghauri, boasts a single stage missile which scientists say validate some crucial technologies like guidance and telemetry systems.

Along with the shorter variant of AGNI-I missile, India is also likely to carry out further test of the joint Indo-Russian supersonic Brahmos missile as well as surface to air Akash and fourth generation anti-tank NAG missiles.

Sources also said that the Army would carry out further configuration tests of the 150-300 kms surface to surface Prithvi missile, which already has been inducted.

According to Asian Military Review magazine, Pakistan has some 12 missiles of the Ghauri range which are based on North Korean Technology.

Experts said that Shaheen-II, a two-stage missile with a claimed range of 2,400 kms, was still in development stage, while India has already inducted the intermediate 1500-2,500 kms range AGNI-II missile with the army.

Saying that nuclear force had become a critical part of Pakistan's military strategy, Asian Military Review said it is estimated that Islamabad has enough enriched uranium for between 20 and 40 nuclear warheads.

It also said that Pakistan every year was producing uranium for between 4 and 6 warheads. In addition to the plutonium reprocessing lab, it is thought to be capable of producing enough fissile material for another 2 to 4 warheads.

The magazine in its latest issue said it would be fair to assume that since the reactor opened in 1998, Pakistan has between 14 to 20 plutonium-based warheads. This is for the first time, it has come to light that Islamabad has such plutonium-based warheads.


{Not so fast on BRF we had speculated on the Chagai test reports and concluded something fishy was going on and the missing Pu sample from US labs}
George J

Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by George J »

Originally posted by Arun_S:
5)Is the current technology mature enuf to espouse and over land flight?
Yes, but I ask when there is green grass all around why will the bull eat dry hey? :lol:
Aaah but you see thats a trick question. If the technology is mature (since India is actually developing it) or proven (since our neighbours actually bought it) then you dont have to worry about missiles falling from the sky except in their intended target zones. And if the magical 27 m CEP for Prithvi is to be believed than assuming that 60 m or an 80 m CEP for Agni-1, it should not be difficult to find a target zone of say 2km radius (just to be safe), 800km away from launch, India certainly is big country.

Why am i so keen on an overland trajectory? Primarily because thats what the missile will fly over. Sure if it works over the sea it will work over land, but the idea of being comfortable enuf with your product to actually launch it over the intended terrain with say an actual 1T conventional warhead would certainly carry a lot more impact than lobbing dummy warheads into the sea.

As someone mentioned before, we need to accept the fact that in the area of ballistic missile development, india certainly is very confortable. While due credit should be given to the individuals who made it possible, it is also time to accept such development as routine. If it indeed is routine and mature then its demonstration over a land based target should not be much of a problem.

We after all are claiming that we have a solid fuelled, road mobile single stage vehicle to deliever any payload upto 800kms away. Then its time to demo the claim. I would certainly like to see some visuals of what a 1T of conventional warhead exploding looks like.

Merely lobbing white rockets (with red ribbons) into the sea does not carry the same impact as a training launch of an actual tried and tested platform in true green camo against a simulated target of rusting tanks and structures at least 700kms away.

Hence the operative word is 'mature'.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by fanne »

George,
How is the crow soup going!!

Btw, you need lot of telementry data when you are firing a missile (If it has any other purpose than a show -off or actual deployment). To set up that kind of facility you need lots of sensors - Lots of money. Apperantly in India this kind of facility exists either in Chandipur or Sriharikota. The later is ruled out for militiary test, so the only place where you can fire a missile and get 'good' data is, if you do it at Chandipur.

I guess you can also argue that unless we fire the missile into TSP we can never be 'mature', as the missile has to finally fly over and into TSP.

Rgds,
fanne
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Arun A »

Originally posted by George J:
Aaah but you see thats a trick question. If the technology is mature (since India is actually developing it) or proven (since our neighbours actually bought it) then you dont have to worry about missiles falling from the sky except in their intended target zones.
Are you saying developed and mature technologies never fail? Even if the risk is small, do you want the missile to be tested over your home?

Assuming a 1% failure rate, out of 100 missiles fired at TSP, 1 will fail. In a test scenario, do you want this particular one to fall on your house?

Come to think of it...the US has well developed (mature in your words) technology. Why is the US careful when testing its weaponry.

Do you want the technology to be tested or do you want to be cavalier?
Guest

Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Guest »

Here are some much awaited pics:

<img src="http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ ... del115.jpg" alt="" />

<img src="http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ ... del114.jpg" alt="" />
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by MohanJ »

Gosh.. Agni looks sleek and sexy as ever!
A camlin look! (remembering school days camlin vs nataraj geomentry boxes terms)
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Rangudu »

Jasjit singh's take successful Agni-1 test
George J

Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by George J »

Originally posted by Arun A:
Assuming a 1% failure rate, out of 100 missiles fired at TSP, 1 will fail. In a test scenario, do you want this particular one to fall on your house?
Aaaah see now the jingos are thinking.....imagine this same 1% failure rate manifesting itself...when the NCA have given the go ahead to launch a Agni-1 with a Tactical Nuke on it. After all our assumption is that after lobbing half a dozen Agni's into the sea we would have a 'pretty good' handle on the product.

Now from the rest of my readings on the Strat forum, I m given to understand that a lauching of the abovemention vehicle with the abovementioned warhead will ONLY happen in dire circumstances, and in those given circumstances can you expect a 1% failure. Sure we have all heard stories how the safety mechanism worked fine (when mated with dummy cores) what if that same 1% failure rate crept up there too? (I sound like a pessimist or what?)

Well to make a long story short this is a mission critical product it HAS to work. Failure is not an option.

Hence my conundrum? Does this thing actually work over the terrain its intended with at least a conventional warhead.

The crow soup makes you think in mysterious ways....
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Rangudu »

Originally posted by Dr.JaganMohan:
Gosh.. Agni looks sleek and sexy as ever!
A camlin look! (remembering school days camlin vs nataraj geomentry boxes terms)
Ha. I remember the day I junked my Natraj for a new Camlin set :)

Agni is a Camlin indeed. :lol:
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Arun A »

Originally posted by George J:
Aaaah see now the jingos are thinking.....imagine this same 1% failure rate manifesting itself...when the NCA have given the go ahead to launch a Agni-1 with a Tactical Nuke on it. After all our assumption is that after lobbing half a dozen Agni's into the sea we would have a 'pretty good' handle on the product.
If a tactical nuke is being launched, it would most likely be a first strike against the TSP army. Are you saying that the army plans to have one and only one missile in its tact nuke arsenal?
Well to make a long story short this is a mission critical product it HAS to work. Failure is not an option.
Dude..every technology has a certain failure rate? Remember Challenger? Even cruise missiles/F-18s etc have failure rates.
Hence my conundrum? Does this thing actually work over the terrain its intended with at least a conventional warhead.

The crow soup makes you think in mysterious ways....
I have no problem with testing a technology to death but there is no point in risking Indian lives. Is there any additional gain by testing it on land, other than bragging rights?
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Arun_S »

Agni-1 launch vidio can be seen on Doordarshan news for 9-Jan-03.
http://www.ddindia.net/

Please do not bitch about doordarshan 25kbps streaming , take what is available, OR feel free to pay 5$/per month for NDTV 100 kbps streaming video.
George J

Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by George J »

Hmmm so we dont mind loosing one missile battery coz oops we didnt know that the vehicle actually had a 1% failure rate. Well you are right that a tactical payload would most probably be a first strike, but lets up the ante, what if you have a strategic payload with the same failure rate? We know that 1 ton is sufficient for a strategic payload. So now would like to see this same device blow up over Indian territory?

Ya know, frankly the Challenger exploding was not mission criticle. As harsh it may sound, so they lost seven lives (?), how many have been lost in every Milan exploding and the Trishul tests, you dont want me to count the AEW do you?

None of the above examples are mission criticle, they are occupational hazards, the Agni and its payload are mission criticle. If risking the lives of civilians would certainly assure reliablity of the vehicle over land then, I think its a risk worth taking. We after all are notorious for having high thresholds for taking civilian losses, at least this one would be worth it.

Also your argument stems the the associate risk to civilians, due to a land over flight. That same risk is taken when launching from Chandipur, what if the guidances fails and the vehicle does a U turn and land right back somewhere in orissa?

Well you are talking about a country that can execute a dog leg manouver to avoid a few tigers, i think that after 'sufficient' testing, this product is highly capeable of doing an over land flight. If it goes awry for some reason, lives are lost, then you would have enuf data to hit the drawing board to design a product that does not flop. I would value a 1.13 billion lives over a few hundred. Its all about taking risks. If the technology is 'mature' then the probability of failure will be minimal (not zero).

If indeed the product is mature and testable on land, then the bragging rights that come with a successful land based test are well deserved. It will demonstrate a lot of control over the product and allow others to infer about the relative sophestication of our products. After all these are not just military weapons, they are political too.

'They' brag when they dont have anything, we dont brag even when we have enuf. Sometimes its good to crow, those boys in NK seem so to be getting a lotta milage, i dont see why a geniune made in india missile cannot give us a bit of a 'feel good factor'.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Arun A »

GeorgeJ

Name one mission critical technology anywhere in the world that has a 0% failure rate.

I still dont get what testing over land proves..Does it validate the techonology in some way? Does it serve to assure the civilian populace that we have a missile that we know works?
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Rudra »

george I am not aware of any fatalities during trishul or milan testing. a konkurs atgm was accidentally fired in BDL (hyd) which killed a couple of people..not a system failure.

countries will test where they can. Russia and China have vast land areas to play with. US generally tested its ICBM and tests its ATBM over the sea..the ICBMs hitting some atoll. I am sure UK, France tested over sea also..with nuke tests on land or under that pacific lagoon.

I dont see anyone not taking them seriously.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Nandu »

Georgeji, I don't get it. How will testing over land help to bring failure rate below 1%, or prove that failure rate is below 1% (unless you do 100+ tests)?
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by shiv »

Originally posted by RajeevT:
From 'Hindu News Update' of Jan 09, 2003

***************
UK slams Agni test

Indias reporting is a curious mixture of ambiguous use of a foreign language that we have adopted as our own - like like going for satyanarayan pooja in jeans and low-neckline top.

"Slam": dictionary meaning: An aggressive remark directed at a person like a missile and intended to have a telling effect

Actual remark made:
Britain today regretted India's decision to test-launch ballistic missile Agni, saying it sends wrong signals in the region and beyond.
Doesn't sound like "slamming" to me

Three deaf women, called UQ, DDM and BRF were walking in the park:
Say one, "It's windy today"
The second, "Windy? I thought it was Thursdy today"
Third:"Yes, I'm Thursty too. Let's go get a drink"

ramana:
what is this three tonne payload they are talking about? Is it conventional or super heavy special payload? Is this the boosted fission super heavy model that SBM seeks info about?}
MIRV :D ?
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Arun_S »

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2003/20030110/main5.htm

It has 56kbp video clip on this page.

The TRIBUNE
Agni test-fired second time

New Delhi, January 9
Encouraged by the second flawless test-firing of the short-range variant of the nuclear-capable Agni ballastic missile today, India plans to carry out five more tests in the next few weeks before its induction.

The surface-to-surface missile, which can strike targets up to 800 km, was for the first time test-fired with a one- tonne payload proving the capability of the missile to carry tactical nuclear warheads, which are usually of that weight, highly placed Defence Ministry sources said here.

A Defence Ministry press note said the mission objectives of today’s launch was “fully met” as confirmed by the network of ground radars telemetry stations and visual observations from the intended impact point.

Lauding the scientists for the flawless mission, Defence Minister George Fernandes, who witnessed the test-firing in Chandipur-on-sea in Orissa, said it enhanced India’s capability in deployment of such surface-to-surface missile systems.

The sources said a series of seven developmental tests flights of the shorter range variant of Agni-I missile were planned and each would be carried out with a payload ranging between 1 and 3 tonnes.

Today’s launch comes a day after Pakistan inducted the HATF-V Ghauri missile.

India’s Agni-I which is solid fuelled, unlike Pakistan’s Liquid fuelled Ghauri, boasts a single-stage missile which scientists say validate some crucial technologies like guidance and telemetry systems.

Along with the shorter variant of Agni-I missile, India is also likely to carry out further tests of the joint Indo-Russian supersonic Brahmos missile as well as surface-to-air Akash and fourth-generation anti-tank NAG missiles.

Sources said the Army would carry out further configuration tests of the 150-300 km surface-to-surface Prithvi missile, which already has been inducted. PTI
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Sunil »

GJ,

> fire one in green camo over land..

dude you're way off. other than that I have no comments.

call me sometime.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Sanjay »

Shiv,
Why not MIRVs eventually !

Anyway, if they're planning those additional launches, remember that this is also good training for the Agni-2 launch crews. The launch procedures are similar.

We can assume that by the end of the year we will have operational 12-18 Agni-2 IRBMs with a range of at least 3000km and 200kT warheads (weighing between 500 and 1000kg) and 6-10 Agni-1 MRBMs with a range of 900km and similar warheads.

Comments anyone - at least on my range and warhead yield/weight estimates ?
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Arun_S »

IIRC Agni-II entered operational service Dec-2000, to me that means at least 6 missiles to start operational service. Now after 12 months I would be surprized if that count is not already 15-18 units.

Agni-1 OTOH I would expect to go operational with at least 6 units, this middle of the year, after the 5 units in current series of user trials have finished.

I think Agni-3 with a differnet rocket motor diameter will certainly have 3 MIRV payload.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Neshant »

> Also see the word tactical being used in
> connotation of India. I think the NFU will be
> revised

This is a good catch although I do not think it implies any change in NFU.

Previously India has only talked about strategic nuclear weapons. The word tactical would mean nukes might now be employed as battlefield weapons but this is only a guess.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Arun A »

Originally posted by Neshant Sajen:
> Also see the word tactical being used in
> connotation of India. I think the NFU will be
> revised

This is a good catch although I do not think it implies any change in NFU.

Previously India has only talked about strategic nuclear weapons. The word tactical would mean nukes might now be employed as battlefield weapons but this is only a guess.
I think if India does go to war and it turns nuclear, "But you promised you wouldnt strike first" will be the last complain you will hear. I think maintaining a public NFU is a good policy but the real policy should be FU.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Abhijit »

I think maintaining a public NFU is a good policy but the real policy should be FU
I think the withdrawal from NFU is a diplomatic statement to various players (uncles, poodles, TSp, PRC etc.) that we are upping the ante in the game. Having a hidden FU policy does not help us much because the world still believes (as indeed it should) that there will never be any nuclear conflict. All the Paki shenanigans and Indian responses are just moves in the one-upmanship and brinkmanship.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Arun A »

Originally posted by Abhijit_ST:
I think the withdrawal from NFU is a diplomatic statement to various players (uncles, poodles, TSp, PRC etc.) that we are upping the ante in the game.
No point in upping the ante unless you absolutely have to. TSP needs to publicly declare a FU policy because it wants to deter India from attacking. India gains nothing by declaring a FU...FU when? When there is another parliament attack. It doesnt add up.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Prateek »

India needs to test something bigger than the AGNI's ...

US gone MAD or what ?

India a secondary proliferator: CIA
http://www.rediff.com/news/2003/jan/09cia.htm
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Manne »

Originally posted by John Umrao:
He said the test "sends the wrong signals within the region and beyond."
The time is way past for sending signals. This time around India is signaling its <u>resolve</u> to defend against any aggressor, conventional or otherwise period.
JUmrao, surprised to see the usual :D
George J

Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by George J »

Arun A:
I dont think anything can offer that probability of success. But the more you test the product in as close a dimension you want it to function in, the greater the probability of success.

Personally, given a choice between launching a missile ALWAYS towards the sea with a dye as a warhead is NOT the same a allowing a mature system to overfly land and deploying a conventional warhead of max tonnage over a target area.

GD: Nope it was a Milan that killed a BDL worker while Yogesh Narain was visiting. Also an engineer died and three were hurt when the Trishul failed. Here is a link.
http://www.rediff.com/news/2001/apr/23spec.htm
Also its funny that you mention russian testing. Coz when the tested their Topol-M ICBM it was from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome (western russia) to Kamachatka (eastern russia). It covered 8000kms and at least its ascent and descent phase were over land even if over flew the arctic. We are talking about 800 kms here.

Missile gurus:
Were there ever conventional warheads designed for the prithvi or the agni? I mean actual development and testing, not just on paper. We have seen pics on BR but I have never heard of the same being ever tested. We have test flow the IRBM's with the entire warhead minus the cores, but have we ever flow them with conventional warheads? Also how are the cores tested for stablity during flight: all those Gforces, viberations and those delicate Pu cores????
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Prateek »

What's a Nuclear-Capable Missile?
http://slate.msn.com/id/2076556/
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by tiruvar00r »

From etaiwannews.com

Like the headline.

Good guys. Pullin' for us.

Nuclear Radiance
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Rudra »

george I did say Ru and China test over land.
Siberia is bigger than india and anything shot
across its northern part is over uninhabited land.

for india only option is launch from Balasore and
hit pokhran range. isnt that a huge 'red flag'
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Sanjay »

Arun_S,
I think you are right about Agni-3.
Do you have any problems with these estimates for Agni-2:

3000km range with 1000kg payload
4000km range with 500kg payload.

I don't think we were manufacturing Agni-2 at full capacity - 18/year - so 10-12 might be a better estimate.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Rangudu »

Foggy bottom on the Agni-1 test
QUESTION: Does the State Department have a view about India's test-firing now of a ballistic missile?

MR. BOUCHER: As we've said before, we're disappointed when we see ballistic missile tests in this region. India did issue a public notice that this test would occur. Nonetheless, we think tests like this contribute to a charged atmosphere, make it harder to prevent to a costly and destabilizing nuclear and missile arms race.

We continue to urge both India and Pakistan to take steps to restrain their nuclear weapon and missile programs, including no operational deployment of nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, and we've urged them to begin a dialogue on confidence-building measures that could produce a likelihood that such weapons might be used. This, obviously, could be part of a broader dialogue to help reduce tensions.

In this context, we'd also say it would be helpful if both sides reduced their recent rhetoric about the potential for conflict because that, too, heightens tensions in the area.

QUESTION: Is there any -- I understand. Very clear. But is there any sense here that India's hand sort of was forced by Pakistan's behavior?

MR. BOUCHER: Our view is that it's not a question of one or the other. It's not productive to start asking is he doing this because he did that and vice versa. :roll: The point is both sides need to exercise restraint. Both sides need to lower the tone of the rhetoric, and that these kind of missile tests do contribute to the charged atmosphere and the sides need to consider that.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Sunil »

The amount of show the Pakistanis put on to demonstrate their superiority is directly proportional to the extent of their anxiety.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by ramana »

GJ if you are in US, questions being asked in the last post could invite a visit.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by NRao »

Just for kicks, the worlds largest and smallest nukes:

Link
George J

Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by George J »

Originally posted by ramana:
GJ if you are in US, questions being asked in the last post could invite a visit.
Well if the visitors can answer my questions which are based on stringing together what we all have read in open source lit, then that would be jolly nice of them. ;)
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by saint »

why anger shown after the test? why did'nt countries go angry before the tests, since it was anounced. is it ddm?

If we build another testing area, say somewhere in kanyakumari, would it be okay to reduce the tensions. How about daman islands?

I guess, the world is angry because, it was successful. And they are more worried because, more tests by india is sure for making the missile better.

if uncle is angry, then we should be happy, because his satelites would have traced the test, showing indian missiles could better than the rest of the world. hence the vent.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by Raj Singh »

Sai NT
why anger shown after the test? why did'nt countries go angry before the tests, since it was anounced. is it ddm?
How US or any other country can react publicily when the act (test)hasn't taken place? They can/will react publicily only after the test.
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Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by saint »

raj singh, I am not talking about "reacting to test".

If USA says, agni-1 test is a big concern for them because it would increase tension. Why can't they say the same thing before. all they need is just put a "if" condition, "if you test, then we are concerned". That way, ddm can preempt paki mutterings and its unnecessary disturbances [media reactions].

when india announces a series of tests, there should have been analysis and interviews by media folks with the noise makers.

get the idea. we are not late for the other tests to follow.
P Babu
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 23
Joined: 24 Nov 1999 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Agni test of 09 January 2003

Post by P Babu »

Originally posted by raj singh:
Sai NT
why anger shown after the test? why did'nt countries go angry before the tests, since it was anounced. is it ddm?
How US or any other country can react publicily when the act (test)hasn't taken place? They can/will react publicily only after the test.
Well, except for TSP and its boss country, i don't think any other country is really angry.

Diplomatic term Disappointment means congratulations in plain English. Our response should be "Thank you". :)
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