Agni III Test - News & Discussion-3

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rsingh
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Post by rsingh »

The timming is perfect -as the 123 agreement is reaching the make or break stage in washington
Please explain why timing is perfect.
-Is it going to make the deal?
- Or break??

IMO testing has nothing to do with 123 agreement
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Post by Vivek K »

Interesting posts! Well, if the conjecture here is true, then Australia's response is a shot across the bows acknowledging this analysis - to test India's resolve.
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Post by Vivek_A »

From the article posted by vipul
to western China, which is its development hub.
Western China isn't the "development hub", it's the cities on the eastern coast.
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Post by ramana »

kmc_chacko wrote:So if A3 will have range around 5000+ then what is the problem in declaring it or DRDO is looking at A4 a new missile to be developed on A3 with much more range & technology. Many experts opinioned that A3 have range excess of 5000+ & because of political reason they are not disclosing it.

will A3s upgraded or modified version will be Sagarika series SLBMs ?
Its all related to credibility and POKII tests. Thanks to the US questioning the 1998 yields there is a credibility issue for high yield lightweight payloads with India. Now totalitarian states need more deterrence than democratic states. Hence PRC wont belive that a AIII with a lightweight payload will do the needful. Therefore to convince the PRC India has to field a heavyweight payload capability. It is another matter what they put in it.

So it is necessary for credibility of deterrence that if DRDO says the range is so much and they tested it to that then that is accepted. To convince others(PRC) there is a need to show a three stage vehicle with 1.5 t capability to over 5000km.

Shankar,
What you say is very apt for understanding the geopolitical game and pecking order.
Please post in the Foreign Policy thread and will reply there.
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Post by NRao »

Thanks to the US questioning the 1998 yields there is a credibility issue for high yield lightweight payloads with India.
At the risk of recycling (apologies if so), I was under the impression that the Gujarat earthquake provided sufficient insight to support the Indian position.
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Post by Arun_S »

ramana wrote:
kmc_chacko wrote:So if A3 will have range around 5000+ then what is the problem in declaring it or DRDO is looking at A4 a new missile to be developed on A3 with much more range & technology. Many experts opinioned that A3 have range excess of 5000+ & because of political reason they are not disclosing it.

will A3s upgraded or modified version will be Sagarika series SLBMs ?
Its all related to credibility and POKII tests. Thanks to the US questioning the 1998 yields there is a credibility issue for high yield lightweight payloads with India. Now totalitarian states need more deterrence than democratic states. Hence PRC wont belive that a AIII with a lightweight payload will do the needful. Therefore to convince the PRC India has to field a heavyweight payload capability. It is another matter what they put in it.

So it is necessary for credibility of deterrence that if DRDO says the range is so much and they tested it to that then that is accepted. To convince others(PRC) there is a need to show a three stage vehicle with 1.5 t capability to over 5000km.

Shankar,
What you say is very apt for understanding the geopolitical game and pecking order.
Please post in the Foreign Policy thread and will reply there.
Ramana guru hits nail on the head.
Shankar wrote:.. . . Even if we assume the range of agni 3 is 3500-5000 km (which is very very unlikely from all the technical evidence it is capable of 8000+km with reduced payload) still it is capable of sanitising almost entire indian ocean ,middle east ,central asia,china and far east.

Agni 3 is a flick of indian ICBM capability carefully veiled so as not to alarm all but a message to those who matter

1500 kg -3500 km also translates to 500 kg and so many km without any modifications and world already knows it

look at the flight profile and compare it with that of a minuteman 3 and topol m and the answer is crystal clear

It is too similar to be a co incidence except a 3rd stage . This one is a 8000+ km bird and next one with third stage will surely be what we want it to be

pakistan and china on the nuclear front was countered long back -it is now turn for the others to be weary of indian might -not just economic
Here is some more information:

Per best press report test flight took 15 minutes. See http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-new ... sts?page=3
& India tests longest-range ballistic missile

But the 400Km apogee trajectory is only feasible if flight time was >15 min and <16 min (that makes press report of approx 15 min correct). In this calculation I have discounted ISP to account for energy loss due to energy wasting tail wagging maneuver (used to fully exercise the flex nozzles) that I saw in video recording. This trajectory corresponds to splash down at a range of 4,130Km. This where the ship must be located.

The trajectory was clearly depressed to get lower range. The same dog tail dance (flex nozzle exercise) but for max range trajectory would have given range of 4,830 Km for 1500Kg payload. For a lighter 500Kg payload the dog tail dance will give range 7,715 Km. there is no conservative / optimistic debate here, this range is pretty accurate to within few % error.

Of course without the dog wagging dance the range is what BR Missile page says it is (i.e. 5,500Km for 1,500 Kg payload) and that on its own is quite conservative estimate.

So the message went to all relevant intelligence analysts! 8)
The message will eventually find its way to policy analysts too.
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Post by Shankar »

Actually both US,China and of course Russia know the credibility of our fusion weapon system ,the whole concept and design of thermo nuclear systems is to increase yield and reduce weight so that it can be carried further with existing delivery systems both air craft and missiles .

US reaction to our thermo nuclear test was born out of total surprise and shock at india mastering such advanced and closely guarded technology of fission triggered fusion weapon despite all the stupid embargoes and technology denials put across just to prevent such a breakthru.

So they did what only they can do -denied the advanced light weight design and its yield so that they can pursue the utopic and non functional restrictive regimes for a few years more

US really did not believe Indians can read and understand nuclear physics as well as they do may be better and then with remarkable ingenuity fashion a functioning weapon system out of that knowledge almost derived from basic text books and design experience from civilian reactors.

What got them worried was not the test itself but the unilateral moratorium declared immediately after -which in a way confirmed maturing of our weapons technology to user level so that no immediate re tests were required

That made them sit up and take notice and the nuclear deal was flaunted to asses the actual capability in nuclear field in more detail and hence the long drawn out negotiation.At least they know now the units which contribute to the weapons programe and a rough idea of how far we shall go to clinch the deal.

All these without giving an ounce of uranium

A good bargain I Should say
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Post by vinayak_d »

Shankar thanks to BR stalwarts like Arun S we all know Agni-2 AT is sufficient to penetrate the poor panda. But the common people at large do not know this. A-3 is still not the definitive version, which must be a 3 stage missile to take care of india's strategic concern. Till we achieve that goal there is nothing wrong downplaying our cards.
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Post by Multatuli »

Both Ramana and Shankar brought up the issue of credibility of the Indian H-bomb : I think the only way the dispel the doubts on the H-bomb is the detonate a 2 to 3 megaton H-bomb, not just once but three or four times. This could be done in one of the islands in the Indian ocean. I personally also doubt that India has mastered H-bomb technology, at most they can design a boosted fission A-bomb.

Jingoism will not deter Chinese or American aggression, nor can you flatten a city like Shanghai or Los Angeles with jingoism. Only a 3 or 4 megaton H-bomb will. Potential aggressors should have no doubts about the yield of the Indian nukes or the range of Indian delivery systems for them to have deterrence value. They must be fully aware that India has boms that can flatten any one of their cities and that India has the means to deliver those boms to any one of their cities, any time India wants to do so.
Last edited by Multatuli on 19 Apr 2007 01:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Arun_S »

A 3 stage SRDE Yindoo Agni-3++ is onlee short leg range: 7,700Km (1500kg) & 800Kg (15,500km)
:twisted:
----------------
Edited later fixed a zero on last number.
Last edited by Arun_S on 19 Apr 2007 08:35, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by Arun_S »

Multatuli wrote:Both Ramana and Shankar brought up the issue of credibility of the Indian H-bomb : I think the only way the dispel the doubts on the H-bomb is the detonate a 2 to 3 megaton H-bomb, not just once but three or four times. This could be done in one of the islands in the Indian ocean. I personally also doubt that India has mastered H-bomb technology, at most they can design a boosted fission A-bomb.

Jingoism will not deter Chinese or American aggression, nor can you flatten a city like Shanghai or Los Angeles with jingoism. Only a 3 or 4 megaton H-bomb will. Potential aggressors should have no doubts about the yield of the Indian nukes to or the range of Indian delivery systems for them to have deterrence value.
While I agree with sentiments of above post, but Chinky knows that 250KT in 3x MIRV package is more devastating compared to a 2 MT potato. All that is required is quickly complete 4 full yield 300KT weapon with IA and IAF personell exercisizing the complete nuke chain from zero to Air-Force One.
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Post by mandrake »

What is the payload capacity of M51 missile at 8000 kms range? and the DF 31?
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Post by Multatuli »

Well, then detonate three or four 300 kiloton nuke boms, in such a manner that Americans, Europeans and Chinese can measure the yield and quickly demonstrate MIRV technology.
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Post by disha »

Multatuli wrote:Well, then detonate three or four 300 kiloton nuke boms, in such a manner that Americans, Europeans and Chinese can measure the yield and quickly demonstrate MIRV technology.
This is again based on the premise that they will measure it accurately or report back accurate figures. That is not the way it works.

Even if they see the light, they will not report it and harp on the lie. If they do that, what will you do next? Explode a few more? It is then turned into a charade! Or it will cause a problem between India-US such a way that China can take advantage of it. Why give them that chance?

If they want to believe us fine. If they do not want to believe us, they are welcome to test our resolve!

Note that even a 40 kt boosted fission will cause a far more damage in terms of economic might then it would have caused 60 years back. Case in point, the 9/11 attacks in NYC. The extent of economic damage it caused was more than the Hiroshima.

After a point, bigger is always not better. MT weapons are useless. they are an artifact of cold war to show who has the bigger balls [No pun intended].
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Post by vinayak_d »

Why? India should choose to test when it requires it not for oneupmanship. IF chinky or unkil has trouble believing the yield its there problem not ours.
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Post by Arun_S »

joey wrote:What is the payload capacity of M51 missile at 8000 kms range? and the DF 31?
Pls read:
#

Indian Long Range Strategic Missiles - Indian Defense Review Jan-March-2007, by Arun Vishwakarma. ,
Effect of fabrication technology on weight

For a given range and payload the MTOW (Maximum
Take-Off Weight) of missile is largely dependent on
rocket motor’s MF(Mass Fraction) and number of
motor stages. The fuel’s ISP (Specific Impulse) is also
important, but all modern long range missile use solid
fuel thus they have similar ISP. Indian solid fuel
chemistry choice however has better growth potential
compared to US fuel standardized for Space-Shuttle
SRB (Solid Rocket Booster) 4 . Motor’s fuel mass
fraction is the single most important factor in
determining the weight of missile, especially those
designed for 8,000 to 18,000 Km range. A case to
point is the recently tested French M51 submarine
launched missile5. The 56 tonne M51 has 3 stage and
all three motor cases are made of carbon-carbon fiber
composite material to maximize the fuel mass fraction
so the missile can fit into current launch tube of
French nuclear submarines6 carrying the M41 missile,
yet it carries 50% more payload over 50% more range.
The M51 missile’s range is 9,000 km for 6 MIRV
payload (1,400 kg including penetration aid). Yet the
same missile delivers full ICBM range (20,000 km) for
configuration with fewer (2) MIRVs providing flexibility
to France.
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Post by Multatuli »

Vinayak and Disha, it's entirely possible that even after India tests a round of
300 kiloton bombs, the US will still deny in public the yield given bu Indian scientists and the yield measured by the Americans themself. However, the point is that their defense analysts, intelligence, military and key politicians will privately know better. They may and probably will, indulge in propaganda but that's not important because you ( India ) will know that the Americans and Chinese know better. As matters stand now, there is doubt about the yield of the boosted fission device India tested, there is also doubt about the ability of India to field 300 kt nuclear weapons. These doubts have to be dispelled comprehensively. Furthermore the most important thing is that the Indian military, defense scientist and analysts will know for certain that the boms actually work.
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Post by Arun_S »

Multatuli wrote:As matters stand now, there is doubt about the yield of the boosted fission device India tested,
Cut the crap about boosted fission device psyop unless you can substantiate it with something more tangible than gut feel.
The S1 was a 2 stage TN device and not a wholesome boosted fission device.
Last edited by Arun_S on 19 Apr 2007 03:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by disha »

Multatuli wrote:Vinayak and Disha, it's entirely possible that even after India tests a round of
300 kiloton bombs, the US will still deny in public the yield given bu Indian scientists and the yield measured by the Americans themself. However, the point is that their defense analysts, intelligence, military and key politicians will privately know better. They may and probably will, indulge in propaganda but that's not important because you ( India ) will know that the Americans and Chinese know better. As matters stand now, there is doubt about the yield of the boosted fission device India tested, there is also doubt about the ability of India to field 300 kt nuclear weapons. These doubts have to be dispelled comprehensively. Furthermore the most important thing is that the Indian military, defense scientist and analysts will know for certain that the boms actually work.
As you have said
Multatuli wrote:You ( India ) will know that the Americans and Chinese know better
And since we already know better and also know that they know and also that they know that we know that they know, there is no point in "dispelling comprehensively" anything.
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Post by Suraj »

Hi, can we put a stop to this 'we should test a bazillion megaton bomb to prove something to XXX' discussion ? Arun_S has done a lot to track Agni III discussions, with excellent support from others, like Gerard. Please don't derail the focussed coverage of the missile, and ruin the efforts of these folks, with non-sequiturs. Perhaps admins should create a thread on geopolitical consequences of ICBM capability, in the strat forum.
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Post by vinayak_d »

Arun_S wrote:A 3 stage SRDE Yindoo Agni-3++ is onlee short leg range: 7,700Km (1500kg) & 800Kg (15,50km)
:twisted:
Self Edited... :D
Last edited by vinayak_d on 19 Apr 2007 08:07, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by marimuthu »

Arun_S You are one smart Yandoo but i guess you missed a zero?
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Post by Arun_S »

Smart Arun also makes zimple mistakes.
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Post by PKD »

BR is a great forum in many ways. Excellent job!

There are a couple of things I wanted to have clarified. To begin with, I remember reading an article in the Xinhua after the 2006 test. It said that the test had been successful and that the range of the missile was 5000 km. Considering that the official range was said to be about 3500 km, was it just a mistake on the part of Xinhua?

As for the Australian article on alleviating poverty, the following is my view. Of late, we have been losing out on a lot of energy deals, even the gas from Myanmar. Energy is badly needed if our economy is to continue growing at a good rate. Do you think better military capability would help us win more energy contracts?

Thanks
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Post by vinayak_d »

Go through the entire posts, your doubts will be cleared. The reason why the chinkis got the gas deal was because of their support for the burmese govt in UN. Now I am not saying having nukes and ability to wipe out china will guarantee a veto power but this I know, not having it will certainly ensure not having a veto, unless you are a poodle.
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Post by Kanson »

Namaskar to old mates and the new ones. Happy to get some time to spend here.

Rakall & BRites: Many thanks for your effort. Its only through your words, posts and photos i am seeing Aero India 2007. Impressive!. If all the collected material can be made as collection in downloadable single file format it would be great!

Last time i was pressing hard to imply that what is reported in media about the fiasco between DRDO and IAF/MoD on Indian AEW-EMB 145 is totally wrong. Now, thanks to Arun_S and Rakall, first hand information about this is available to you all. In the company of DRDO, IAF(Services), MoD, always DRDO is not boss. It is just a servile donkey finishing the wishlist of the Master. In any fiasco, you know, who are the one to be easily blamed. Though third-party auditing has not gone well, it is the hightime for the DRDO to wriggle out the excess fat.

I rue the missed oppotunity of chating with Ajai Shukla :D

I can understand that when addressing to general public there is different style of writing. I could'nt tolerate the knowledge of defence journalist when speaking in a Military forum like this.
Ajai Shukla wrote:Now on to Tejas. Let’s get one thing clear: as a weapon system for the fighting forces in the field, the Tejas is a dud. Why do I say that when (contrary to some uncharitable comments!!) I know that some of its technologies are cutting-edge world class. It’s the most simple military logic: because if it comes to war today, the Tejas is not available to fight, and regardless of what many would like to believe, it will not be available to fight effectively even three years from now. What is needed to be delivered to the IAF is not the comforting knowledge that Tejas has the highest percentage of composites in the world. What they need is a functional weapons platform at the promised time. If the IAF chief has to write to the Defence Minister that by 2017, the IAF and the PAF will have the same squadron strengths, it is because the Tejas is far behind schedule in delivery.
I am having nothing personal against him. He is talking like a person dealing in vegetable market where the fresh ones are favoured. I appreciate if he could develop better sense for defence matters as it is better for general public becoz they are ones who read his article with interest caused by act of sensationalism.


Ooops..Eye-catching is the reported dog-wagging characteristics of Agni-III. Non of the footages i watched showed this characteristics. Ah, probably might have missed to take notice! Do anyone have the links for the same showing this particular characteristics?

Back to back series wins in India transformed the Indian team as World-cup lifters. Two failures in WC thrashed the team as minnows. But, finally someone find the reality that "In a weeks time good team cannot be bad team again the same good team cannot be a very good team within a week's time". Even firegregchappell.com got some good balanced feedback.

We have failures as well as success. It is nothing wrong in wishing our Indian products to be on par or excel than the contemporary one's but we should not forget the reality.

If pessimism is detrimental, over enthusiasm is suicidal.

Looks like a sort of comprehensive post on everthing i have read so far. Anyway, nice time with you all.
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Post by John Snow »

Only Dr. Tim in consultation with Dr. Wallace can confirm the yield.

It takes courage and character to yield to truth!
:wink:
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Post by vina »

Absolutely stunning photos.. Now after looking at these high resolution photos, I am inclined to believe that the cloud around the base of the RV during lift off is due to the venting of those maneuvering motors.. Well.. well.. the pics tell everyone whom they want to tell , that Agni III has a maneuvering Re-entry Vehicle!!
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Post by Shankar »

This agni 3 thing looks more and more javascript:emoticon(':)')
Smilelike a SLBM as it is rather than a land based missile -may be that is what it is
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Post by Shankar »

Trident II (D5) UGM-133A

The second variant of the Trident is more sophisticated and can carry a heavier payload. It is accurate enough to be a first strike weapon. All three stages of the Trident II are made of graphite epoxy, making the missile much lighter. The Trident II was the original missile on the British Vanguard and later Ohio SSBNs.

Characteristics

* Purpose: strategic nuclear deterrence
* Contractor: Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Sunnyvale, California
* Unit Cost: $30.9 million
* Propulsion: three stage solid propellant
* Length: 44 ft (13.41 m)
* Weight: 130,000 lb (58,500 kg)
* Diameter: 83 in (2.11 m)
* Range: 12000 km (7,500 statute miles)
* Maximum speed: 29,030 km/h (18,000 mph)
* Guidance system: inertial, with stellar sensor update
* CEP: 300 ft (90 m)
* Warhead (in USA usage only): nuclear MIRV. Up to eight W88 (475 kt) warheads (Mark 5) or eight W76 (100 kt) warheads (Mark 4). Non nuclear MIRV. 4 Kinetic reentry warheads
* Date deployed: 1990
You add the wt of 3rd stage and you have a trident clone in indian navy inventory
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Post by Singha »

Rudra promises the day we see a indian sub launch a SLBM I will distribute kaju barfi of weight equal to that of payload of the missile.

what a magnificent sight it will be !
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Post by AshokS »

another promise.... we jingos are getting hungry waiting for you and Rakesh to own up......
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Post by abhischekcc »

Singha wrote:Rudra promises the day we see a indian sub launch a SLBM I will distribute kaju barfi of weight equal to that of payload of the missile.

what a magnificent sight it will be !
I would rather see you promise the weight equivalent to the yield of the warhead, and then hope DRDO places a city buster on the missile. :P
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Post by NRao »

........... promises the day we see a indian sub launch a SLBM I will distribute kaju barfi of weight equal to that of payload of the missile.

what a magnificent sight it will be !
All you guys who make such promises, PLEASE make sure that there are some sugar free sweets too.

Waa, kaju barfi.
see a indian sub launch a SLBM
Insha Allha.
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Post by Arun_S »

vina wrote:
Absolutely stunning photos.. Now after looking at these high resolution photos, I am inclined to believe that the cloud around the base of the RV during lift off is due to the venting of those maneuvering motors.. Well.. well.. the pics tell everyone whom they want to tell , that Agni III has a maneuvering Re-entry Vehicle!!
I have also purchased the 2 PTI photos (including the one being referenced above, and the one huffing on launch ;) ) , awaiting it receipt in a week or so.
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Post by satyarthi »

Thats great!

Since the PTI originals are of even higher resolution than those posted at frontierindia.com site.
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Post by Singha »

in 1st photo note the two 'voltas' split AC unit boxes with little roofs in
the foreground. so what were they cooling ? certainly not the C3 room because thats a bunker far away.
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Post by Arun_S »

I believe those A/Cs are from Carrier ;)
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Post by Shankar »

actually they are the shelters for the DDM s and the un invited politicians all together in one room waiting for some thing to go wrong (if some thing really goes wrong imagine 1000 kilo of DDM tikka spiced with politicians of all flavour
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