Agni III Test - News & Discussion-3

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Arun_S
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Post by Arun_S »

arun wrote:
Arun_S wrote: This corresponds to splash down at a range of 4,130Km. This collaborates the 4000Km range shown on some of the TV reports.

At 4130 Km range the Navy ship must have been located. Splash down at ~15degree South latitude.
A test flight beyond 4000 km is unlikely.
ROCKSIM simulations correspond to measurable universal truths, like gravity, laws of motion etc. For missile configurations in public domain and their payload/range ROCKSIM out matches. So when DRDO specifies the total mass and use of composites etc and payload, one can easily fit on comparable older missiles in for which stage confign data is in public domain. Let us not even factor in any upside to these data to account for new technology. And the laws of motion clearly tell that 3000Km is impossible. So if one has to pick between physics and conservative comparable but old missile motor estimate versus a SRDE Yindu disinformation psyop by shri Avinash Chander, who do you bet is unrealistic? I say anything against physics is not true. Until the day I see my aunt flying like fairy.

BTW where the TV channels pick up the 4000Km on their Infro Bar? a number that was never mentioned before?

Almost all press reports talk of the tested range was >3000Km, so what more evidence for your assertion of only upto 3000Km?

Care to answer the questions?

***
Added later: ROCKSIM accurately predicts ISRO rocket performance after stage parameter enhancements are announced but before payload performance are announced. So if it works on ISRO launchers, its safe to assert it also does on DRDO.
Last edited by Arun_S on 17 Apr 2007 23:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Johann »

A fairly large Indian Navy operation to provide full tracking of the missile's course.

Naval tracking of own and other missile tests is incidentally what got some navies in to the BMD business. The IN may like its counterparts elsewhere get in to something of a competition with the IA/IAF over it.
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Post by Arun_S »

JE Menon wrote:Actually, Kalam's flowers comment is more than a little tongue in cheek. All you yindoos have seen how our aircraft drop flowers. Noticed how they fall, right? Petals separated. Think MIRV.
Naughty Yindoo finesse. 8)

Kalam saab aur drdo ki Jai hoo.
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Post by Harry »

Arun_S wrote:2D grap or 3D? What do you suggest should be the perspective view of the trajectory?
A simple 2D plot should suffice. If a 3D trajectory is possible, it should be over a map viewed at an angle.
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Post by vinayak_d »

I have a strong feeling that the A-3SL would be wider than the A-3 to compensate for the length. The K-15 pontoon launcher is supposed to be 2.3 m in dia, I would expect the Sl to be 2.2 m. Very close to the M-51.
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Post by Gerard »

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Post by vinayak_d »

LOL looks like the aussie poodles are shiting in their pants at the prospect of full range ICBM. Can't wait for the next test of 3 stage A-3++.
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Post by NRao »

I am a little amazed that these countries did not see it coming. Are they really THAT daft?

And, what is difference between living with a nuclear China and a nuclear India? IF at all it is China that these guys have to worry about.

May be I should be glad hey stopped at Ramayana, and, did not read up on Ashtavakra Geeta or Yoga Vashishtha. (Now I guess they will raid all English versions of the two.)
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Post by vinayak_d »

Idon't think we should care, if they are scared good for us. Next get Barak-2's on ships and shoot down any oz P-3 that is stupid enough to come near our ships.
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Post by Vivek K »

The Ozzies are so snobbish! All these "so called" powers keep parroting the same line - "6 decades after independence, India has not been able to provide water and power to its people".

What they are trying to hide is that India has created immense wealth for its citizenry. The size of India's middle class is unrivalled and is larger than the population of third rate powers of yester years like Australia and Britain. This line is the typical psy-op against India practiced by western nations.

If you are poor, you should not be able to defend yourselves!! :roll: This holier than thou preaching is only because they know that India has rolled past them.
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Post by SaiK »

All strategic fears are weapons themselves, like the many astras arjuna received for mythical stories. they are sure shot weapons for certain superphysical vibrations (like say having homeopathic potencies that are mostly working in the long term).

And this is the reason we have to announce much much earlier like we have to capability to do a nuke attack now on the moon.. etc. oooh! what a NFU weapon that is.

Good show there!.. [Oz got lots of nuke materials, But those can be blasted off sitting from India].. lets make the haves and the have nots equations re-written with Agni future variants and its vibrations (Future Indian Great Power Politics).
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Post by Gaurav_S »

The point here is that these countries have a mindset like 'first fulfill citizens extreme needs and then only should do R&D for such technology'
LOL.. :lol:

Country with 1 billion folks is not going to change in one night. Cant afford to sit tight when we are having neighbours like TSP and India is poised to be regional power.

The stereotype statement that bugs me 'India cannot bring adequate power or water supplies to most of its 1.3 billion people'
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Post by Arun_S »

Up their musharraf. Deal with it. Their problem not ours.
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Post by shiv »

gauravsurati wrote:
The stereotype statement that bugs me 'India cannot bring adequate power or water supplies to most of its 1.3 billion people'
"You farted" game here. Ignore for now and hit back when the next terrorist attack or misfortune befalls them and speak at length about anything that strikes you as negative.
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Post by bala »

A nation (Aussies) of ex-convicts can't perturb the sanity of India nor its denizens. The AUSSIE dork media statement is like being at the "Ballcock" convention hosted by comedian Benny Hill. Please ignore.
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Post by Philip »

Arun,I was flipping through an old JDW and the reort on the failed test of Agni-3 also had the full range of the missile as being about 5000km,with MIRVs,decoys,terminal guidance sensors,etc.The missile was mentioned as being mobile (rail).An interesting thought is what range the first stage of the missile is capable of.If compact enough,we could see a good SSM possibility.
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Post by Shankar »

The missile was mentioned as being mobile (rail).An interesting thought is what range the first stage of the missile is capable of.If compact enough,we could see a good SSM possibility
2500-3000 km I should think -in agni 3(with 1000 kg payload) the additional energy available was just wasted away to down grade the flights ground range by unnessecery thrust vectoring and excessive drag encountered in depressed trajectory flight
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Post by Johann »

Not sure why people want to treat a newspaper article as if it were an official reaction.

Liberal Aussies have a strong anti-nuclear aversion, conservative ones are pragmatic.

Whats most uncomfortable for the Aussies is not so much the nukes as the fact India is edging out Australia as the preferred partner of the US, Singapore and Malaysia for joint security in the eastern Indian Ocean - ie what the Aussies regard as their backyard.

The Australians will adjust as they always do.
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Post by vinayak_d »

Hi would it be possible to post the contents of the article ? Thanks in advance
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Post by vinayak_d »

Johann wrote:Not sure why people want to treat a newspaper article as if it were an official reaction.

Liberal Aussies have a strong anti-nuclear aversion, conservative ones are pragmatic.
Newspapers usually reflect the mindset of the people though probably not the govt which takes more pragmatic decisions.
Johann wrote:Whats most uncomfortable for the Aussies is not so much the nukes as the fact India is edging out Australia as the preferred partner of the US, Singapore and Malaysia for joint security in the eastern Indian Ocean - ie what the Aussies regard as their backyard.
In all likely hood the nuke deal will not go through and chances of India being US partner are next to zero. Anyway I don't see India being interested in any sort of strategic partnership with the anglosphere countries. Russia and france are more reliable.
Johann wrote:The Australians will adjust as they always do.
No one really cares what they do...just venting our feelings here.
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Post by arun »

Arun_S wrote:
arun wrote: A test flight beyond 4000 km is unlikely.
ROCKSIM simulations correspond to measurable universal truths, like gravity, laws of motion etc. For missile configurations in public domain and their payload/range ROCKSIM out matches. So when DRDO specifies the total mass and use of composites etc and payload, one can easily fit on comparable older missiles in for which stage confign data is in public domain. Let us not even factor in any upside to these data to account for new technology. And the laws of motion clearly tell that 3000Km is impossible. So if one has to pick between physics and conservative comparable but old missile motor estimate versus a SRDE Yindu disinformation psyop by shri Avinash Chander, who do you bet is unrealistic? I say anything against physics is not true. Until the day I see my aunt flying like fairy.

BTW where the TV channels pick up the 4000Km on their Infro Bar? a number that was never mentioned before?

Almost all press reports talk of the tested range was >3000Km, so what more evidence for your assertion of only upto 3000Km?

Care to answer the questions?

***
Added later: ROCKSIM accurately predicts ISRO rocket performance after stage parameter enhancements are announced but before payload performance are announced. So if it works on ISRO launchers, its safe to assert it also does on DRDO.
The “missile configurations in public domain “ could just as easily be akin, by some others, as you put it, to “SRDE Yindu disinformation psyop by shri Avinash Chanderâ€
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Post by vinayak_d »

The distance from delhi to beijing is 3768 km while that from Madras to beijing is 4628 km. There is no way a 3000 km range missile fulfills india's strategic needs. If you have problem believing A-3's range is 5k Km then you are free to believe that. After all its a free country
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Post by ashish raval »

I think the range predicted by RockSim could be right since DRDO never discloses precise range data to the public. I know people in IIT's know this fact very well. i.e. underpredicting ;)
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Post by arun »

Vinayak Dangui,

If that’s meant to be a comment on my immediately preceeding post than let me point out that the range of the A3 is not being discussed.

What is being discussed is the distance the A3 travelled in the test of last week.

If you have problem believing the distance the A3 travelled in the test last week is being discussed and would rather believe that the A-3's range is being discussed then you are free to believe that. After all its a free country.
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Post by vinayak_d »

IF how far it was tested is the question then find out where the naval ship was positioned. Anyone got conti's in IN? :D
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Post by kmc_chacko »

So if A3 will have range around 5000+ then what is the problem in declaring it or DRDO is looking at A4 a new missile to be developed on A3 with much more range & technology. Many experts opinioned that A3 have range excess of 5000+ & because of political reason they are not disclosing it.

will A3s upgraded or modified version will be Sagarika series SLBMs ?
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Post by vinayak_d »

chankya neeti says never disclose your true power to anyone. And of course a 3 stage agni-3++(or 4) with a "declared range" of 5500 km (for say 1.5-2.0 ton load)will be a useful asset to have.
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Post by NRao »

Vivek K wrote:The Ozzies are so snobbish! All these "so called" powers keep parroting the same line - "6 decades after independence, India has not been able to provide water and power to its people".

What they are trying to hide is that India has created immense wealth for its citizenry. The size of India's middle class is unrivalled and is larger than the population of third rate powers of yester years like Australia and Britain. This line is the typical psy-op against India practiced by western nations.

If you are poor, you should not be able to defend yourselves!! :roll: This holier than thou preaching is only because they know that India has rolled past them.
The issue is not what others say about India, it is what we do in India. The fact is that there is a unproportionate growth in some fields - which makes it our responsibility to ensure that this is corrected. After all it will come back to bite us some time down the path. We have to do teh right stuff.
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Post by saty »

NRao wrote: The issue is not what others say about India, it is what we do in India. The fact is that there is a unproportionate growth in some fields - which makes it our responsibility to ensure that this is corrected. After all it will come back to bite us some time down the path. We have to do teh right stuff.
And we need Aussies to tell us that!! When we have had success in the field that marginalizes their influence? :roll:

I really think we should use that ozzie news paper as toilet paper to help with recycling and hence environment. After all all growth hurts environment and ozzies must be really worried that we are causing global warming too.
:P
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Post by Gaurav_S »

After all all growth hurts environment and ozzies must be really worried that we are causing global warming too.
Ozzies are really worried about global warming and thus had Earth Hour recently when everyone in Sydney turned their lights off for an hour.

I wonder if this makes any sense after leaving lights open all day & night in offices for charming CBD's without any sensible reason.

Anways, we should now continue Agni III discussion.
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Post by Singha »

indian public must polish up on same type of hypocrisy, like a prayer day for oppressed aborigines in india who were forcibly sterilized and their children kidnapped into foster homes.
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Post by JTull »

Singha wrote:indian public must polish up on same type of hypocrisy, like a prayer day for oppressed aborigines in india who were forcibly sterilized and their children kidnapped into foster homes.
They'll tell you to first mark a day for some similar acts in India during Emergency in 1970's.
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Post by NRao »

And we need Aussies to tell us that!!
May be I was not clear about what I said. No, I do not want the Aussies or anyone else to tell us that.

I want India to clean up her act and do the right things in env, medical, sports, education, population, etc - all by herself. Of course, needless to state, this list also includes nuckes and ICBMs.

The problem is that India seems to do a fe wthings very well and neglect a lot of other important things. Nothing to do with other nations, just our problem, which we should attend to, irrespective of what others say or do.
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Post by Rahul M »

off topic entirely, but :
Singha wrote:
indian public must polish up on same type of hypocrisy, like a prayer day for oppressed aborigines in india who were forcibly sterilized and their children kidnapped into foster homes.

They'll tell you to first mark a day for some similar acts in India during Emergency in 1970's.
when did that happen ?? any links ?? :shock:
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Post by Vipul »

Not sure if anyone remembers, when IN commsisoned the TU-142's, the Aussies raised a hue and cry over India's possible snooping capabilities which could cover areas upto Australia.
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Post by Vivek K »

Rao sahab,

Every country, even the leading superpowers/powers have similar failings and deal with them when problems come up. That does not stop them from putting up a credible deterrent to external aggression. So in that context, the Aussie lecture to India is - "holier than thou" and is misplaced.

I think your response would be more suitable in threads on the Indian economy or India - emerging power/superpower etc.
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Post by shetty »

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Post by NRao »

Every country, even the leading superpowers/powers have similar failings and deal with them when problems come up. That does not stop them from putting up a credible deterrent to external aggression. So in that context, the Aussie lecture to India is - "holier than thou" and is misplaced.
very true.

However, I would like India to be a lot more proactive (sports for instance). And, even if Aussies tell some thing that is true, we need to accept it and then change it. IF Aussies make that statement in 10-20 years it would be our fault.

Anyways, enough of this on this thread.
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Post by Vipul »

Agni III: Splashdown in a cup of coffee.

Last week India's 'China specific' extended intermediate range ballistic missile, the Agni III, splashed down somewhere off Car Nicobar islands in the Bay of Bengal. This week, two wizened gentlemen from India and China, national security adviser, MK Narayanan and Chinese vice foreign minister, Dai Bingguo, are scheduled to begin a tenth round of discussions to resolve a long standing 'border dispute' between the two countries. The word 'Agni' will be absent from the talks - most likely - though not its presence. Like Banquo's ghost, it is likely to cast a pall over the discussions.

The discussions, slated to take place in the cooling confines of the hill stations of the Nilgiri hills in the south of the country, are going to factor in a new dimension that has so far been absent from the talks - the ability of India to stare down a recalcitrant China that has so far dictated the pace and terms of the talks regarding Tibet and attendant 'boundary' issues.

Another trajectory

Technically, the talks will remain confined to the nitty-gritty of delineating border markings. However, the successful flight of the Agni III, which effectively brings the industrial, military and political heartland of mainland China under its shadow, now takes the argument between the two countries beyond the confines of a 'border dispute' - into a realm where it actually belongs.

The argument concerns the 'dominant power' claims of both the nations, with respect to Asia - and in the case of China, even the world. In particular, the argument concerns the long-standing effort of China to keep India pinned down to its sub-continental confines and India's persistent effort to break out of the shackles of these devious strategies.

Claims and counter claims

For the record, it may be mentioned that India claims China illegally occupies 43,180 sq km of Jammu and Kashmir in the Aksai Chin plateau, including 5,180 sq km illegally ceded to Beijing by Islamabad under the Sino-Pakistan boundary agreement in 1963.

On its part China accuses India of possessing some 90,000 sq km of Chinese territory, including all of Arunachal Pradesh.

To date, China's standing position on resolving the dispute has been to settle for a territorial swap that exchanges the barren, frozen wastelands of Aksai Chin to our northwest, with the populated areas of Arunachal Pradesh to our northeast. This is a solution that China has put on the table ever since the 1950s, even before the infamous 1962 invasion of Tibet.

India, in turn, has ruled out the exchange of any populated areas as part of a border deal.

Tibet

Chinese claims are predicated on the fact that it has 'ownership' or 'suzerainty' over Tibet - a claim that Tibetans themselves do not recognize. Their spiritual and temporal head, the Dalai Lama, has been residing as a refugee in India, along with tens of thousands of Tibetans ever since the Chinese invaded Tibet in the late 1950's.

A few years back, even the other claimant to Tibetan spiritual and temporal loyalties, the Panchen Lama, escaped to India under mysterious circumstances and is now a resident in this land along with the Dalai Lama.

Chinese 'claims' to Tibet are of a nature that does not impress even its own historians. As recently as this year some Chinese historians have pointed out that China's 'historical' claims are not tenable. The venerable Dalai Lama, in an 8 April 2007 interview with CNN-IBN's Karan Thapar has pointed out the farcical nature of these 'claims.'

In the interview, the Dalai Lama points out, "Some time ago, the Chinese government said Tibet was a part of China since seventh century because of marriage. Then eventually, they dropped it and insisted it was since 13th century. Now even on that there are differing views among the Chinese scholars."

The only 'claim' that keeps China in occupation of the plateau, as the Dalai Lama implies, is an 'armed' claim, whereby the Chinese army invaded a land, occupied it and now claims it as its own.

Over the decades, the Chinese have also tried to bolster their case by trying to reduce the native Tibetan population to minority status through the settlement of the Han population from mainland China.

As for Chinese 'claims' on the border between India and Tibet, it is a matter of historical record that between 1956, 1960 and 1962, Chinese maps kept showing three different, and advancing borders, even as its army kept advancing in Tibet. The lines kept changing, particularly in the Ladakh sector, even as their forces kept capturing new territory across the Kuen Lun, the Aksai Chin plateau and the Karakoram ranges.

It is for this reason, nearly three decades after the war, that India still considers the current line of control to be an illegitimate line created through aggression.

The last frontier
The Chinese mainland borders 14 countries and it has been involved in disputes with all of them. By now Beijing has managed to settle all these disputes, except for some minor ones here or there. The long frontier with India remains China's last major unsettled land border, and potentially, it's most troublesome.

To press 'claims,' they have to be tenable in the first place. Since that is patently not the case here, Tibet becomes a losing argument for China. The solution to this problem, for China, has been a persistent refusal to talk or to drag them over an interminable period of time.

This strategy has been made possible, and has also proved to be immensely successful, by keeping India tied down in a persistent game of one-upmanship with Pakistan.

As long as Pakistan has kept India pinned down to local agendas, such as Kashmir, nuclear weapons, missiles etc. it has helped China keep Tibet off the discussion table. With Pakistani antics forever in the forefront, Tibet has remained a non-issue - the repression of its people a forgotten chapter of history. The likes of Richard Gere, and their espousal of the Tibetan cause, provide a touch of exotica to the cause - just that, and no more.

Tibet

Tibet is central to China's Asia policy. The plateau provides China access to the vast oil and gas reserves of Central Asia, as well as to Middle East oil, through the Pakistani port of Gwadar. The plateau holds strategic significance also for the fact that it abuts China's nuclear testing facilities at Lop Nor in the Xinjiang Uighur autonomous province.

The Karakoram Highway (KKH), which connects western China and its largest autonomous region of Xinjiang with the Northern Areas (NAs) of Jammu & Kashmir, all the way through to Islamabad and beyond, is a strategically critical asset for the Chinese. A reconstructed KKH can now handle heavy freight, and will enable China to ship its energy supplies from the Middle East, as well as mineral imports from Africa, to western China, which is its development hub. This alternative supply route will reduce Beijing's dependence on the Malacca Straits.

Beijing and Teheran have signed an agreement to develop Iran's Yadavaran oil field in southern Iran. Under this agreement, China will buy 10 million tons of LNG from Iran each year over the next 25 years. KKH would be the shortest and safest land route to ship Iranian LNG to western China.

With Musharraf's announcement of setting up oil refineries, natural gas terminals and transit facilities in Baluchistan, the KKH assumes added significance as an alternative land link between China and its energy sources. It is Musharraf's stated aim to turn Pakistan into China's "energy corridor."

Given this combination of strategic and economic factors, it is not surprising that China's India and Tibet policy remains an expression of its hard line tendencies.

Strategic initiatives

Matters for India have not been helped by the fact that over the decades, China moved beyond the realms of a conventional confrontation thanks to its nuclear capability. These capabilities allowed it the luxury of dictating the pace of negotiations, and also the timing of 'strategic initiatives' with India.

With Chinese nuclear and missile capability making nonsense of India's vastly enhanced conventional capability (since 1962), India began the arduous process of building its own nuclear and missile forces. To offset China's nuclear advantage, India went nuclear. This promptly became an issue of 'national pride' for Pakistan and predictable rhetoric issued.

Dr AQ Khan's 'Nuclear Wal-Mart' is a much talked about story, but the role played by China in the nuclear and missile proliferation game has received negligible coverage in public media. AQ Khan's grandstanding aside, a fact widely acknowledged by defence observers around the world needs to be taken note of - without China's active participation, Pakistan's nuclear and missile game plan would have been a virtual non-starter.

With Chinese missiles coming into deployment, India came up the Prithvi, its first surface-to-surface missile. Pakistan was immediately in the matching game with a 'Islamic brand' missile, supplied directly by China.

Not surprisingly, along with the nuclear game, the missile game too became an Indo-Pakistan affair, as one 'Islamic brand' missile kept matching an Indian one with boring regularity. These would attract vague attention from defence observers as having a 'remarkable resemblance' to such-and-such Chinese or North Korean missile.

Effectively, India remained pinned down to the antics of China's regional proxy.

At China's end, the nuclearisation of India's own forces, as it successfully mated nuclear warheads to its missiles, failed to change its attitudes radically. The short-range Prithvi and the intermediate range Agni II & I missiles were not in a position to impact the 'mainland' in case of a nuclear one-to-one. The waiting game with China continued.

Testing claims

The splashdown of Agni III in the Bay of Bengal last week is set to change all that. Tested successfully for a range of 3,000 km plus, the Agni III can add another stage and cross the 5,000 km threshold. At 3,000 km plus it already brings Beijing, Shanghai and every significant Chinese military base and industrial installation, along with civilian habitation, within its ambit.

The Agni III is set to test not just Chinese 'claims' on Tibet, but its pretension of being Asia's 'sole super power.' However, all that is in the future, for the Agni III is still a couple of years away from production, and eventual military induction.

That should be alright for Indian defence planners, for Musharraf's grand plans to convert Pakistan into an 'energy and trade corridor' for the People's Republic of China (PRC) is quite a few years away from realization as well. By the time Baluchistan is converted into another 'proxy' province of the PRC, (or goes independent, given its state of affairs) the Agni III will also be ready for induction in a number of variations - land, rail, road, and even as a submarine launched version. The PRC will not be able to get away with proxy games any more.

Agni III has lifted India out of the sub-continental sandbox that Beijing and Islamabad have laboured so hard to keep it confined to in the decades since independence. It may have splashed down in the Bay of Bengal, but the ripples will be evident in the cups of Nilgiri coffee that Narayanan and Dai Bingguo will sip over the weekend.
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Post by Shankar »

agni 3 first of all is not china centric weapon though that is what the news paper reports would like us to believe

It is a tool of indian strategic independence announced to the world stage

Telling the global powers and super power we have the capability to defend our policies and interests and any attempt to force a change can be very costly

China came under the ambit of indian power projection capability with the induction of agni 2 .Agni 3 is not for china

If we assume the usal practice the test was an operational test not a technology demon test as made out to be . It is too well designed and complicated for it to be rough capability demonstration

The timming is perfect -as the 123 agreement is reaching the make or break stage in washington

Even if we assume the range of agni 3 is 3500-5000 km (which is very very unlikely from all the technical evidence it is capable of 8000+km with reduced payload) still it is capable of sanitising almost entire indian ocean ,middle east ,central asia,china and far east.

Agni 3 is a flick of indian ICBM capability carefully veiled so as not to alarm all but a message to those who matter

1500 kg -3500 km also translates to 500 kg and so many km without any modifications and world already knows it

look at the flight profile and compare it with that of a minuteman 3 and topol m and the answer is crystal clear

It is too similar to be a co incidence except a 3rd stage . This one is a 8000+ km bird and next one with third stage will surely be what we want it to be

pakistan and china on the nuclear front was countered long back -it is now turn for the others to be weary of indian might -not just economic
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