Austin: You hit the nail on the head.Austin wrote:Now thats a billion dollar question , faith works when science failstsarkar wrote:There is nothing “half measure” in a fully functional and effective IRBM and a fully functional and effective nuclear warhead.
Very very true.Yogi_G wrote:I remember reading a long time back (surely in BR) that to prevent India from a retaliatory nuclear counter attack more than one Western nation or Russia China might team up and take out Indian sites. I know what I have written sounds cr@p but I will go look for it in the archives, i am just hoping that someone else remembers the article I am talking about and hopefully remember more info than the half baked gibberish I just wrote. The point is that it is not safe to assume that we have no threats apart from our immediate neighbourhood. In times of war especially a nuclear one you never know who might become friends and enemies. A while back, in Aero India, the F-16's with conformal tanks raised suspicions that it could be used for Pakis to launch an attack from UAE, bomb India and return to Pakistan. In such a scenario wouldn't UAE become an automatric enemy given that its soil has been used for an assault on India? We never know who the true friends are, we will know only in times of need.
Because Indian nuclear weapon tango is not "Two some", India second strike will be highly destabilizing globally (I.e. at least a "Four some tango" (Chinese "Four" is ~ symbol of death). So there i sno doubt that global powers will collectively prevent India from retaliating with a comprehensive pre-emptive strike. Check mate.
India can keep its Ahmisa thereafter, when other nation's Brahmastra (from ICBM range) has toast and pulverize Indian military and its IRBM (with 800 kg Indian brahmastra) to dust. The honorable Chief of Navel Staff can take solace that Indian Navy ships will not be broiled at sea while reset of India succumb to his wisdom.
What else do you expect when GoI is lead by "peaceful" "fearless leader" (doesn't it sound quixotic/oxymoron ?) and his hand picked people to command/lead the bureaucracy and military ?
The tango reference comes from non other than Bhishma Pita-mah of Indian Strategic policy.
Here is an excerpt detailing this very threat from my IDR article
WAY TO A CREDIBLE DETERRENT - © Arun Vishwakarma
Nuclear escalation with Pakistan can’t be considered in isolation. Pakistani nuclear weapons and posture is a proxy extension of China. As noted by senior Indian strategists that India-Pakistan nuclear scenario is not a two-some game. Meaning that in case of Pakistani first-strike the nuclear exchange will not be limited between India and Pakistan. A first-strike by Pakistan can only happen at Chinese behest , thus an Indian retaliatory second strike will be simultaneously addressed to Pakistan and China that unfolds into a wider and destabilizing scenario. Thus a nuclear retaliatory attack on China will involve Chinese taking down other challengers that will drag USA in the expanded nuclear exchange, with growing global destabilization. This could prompt global nuclear powers to destroy Indian nuclear capability by a collective first strike before India escalates and launch a second strike . India could thus be inviting a debilitating global strike even before it manages to launch a second strike. Thus Indian counterstrike has to be large dispersed force that can handle simultaneous threats from all directions and be unusually robust against simultaneous first strike by multiple nations.