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chetak
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by chetak »

ramana wrote:I think there is confusion between Root Cause (the cause that caused the incident) and underlying circumustances that alloweed the cause to fester.
The underlying circumustances did not cause the sub to sink.
Its the root cause that caused the sub to sink.
An effective corrective action will address both the root cause and the underlying circumustances.
ramana ji,

Early days. They are at the containment action stage yet. Corrective action is next followed by preventive action. Root cause will address the last stage effectively. There will likely emerge many root causes and hopefully the prevailing circumstances at the time of the mishap would dictate which of the emergent root causes is the correct one, if the investigation is that good.

Sloppy investigation or analysis would simply allow for the horizontal deployment of the corrective action to be mistakenly seen as preventive action and consequently the root cause determination would not be as effective.

There is a lot of digging to be done, both literally and figuratively. This is where the OEMs will come in. One fears that much of the evidence in terms of chemical residues and explosive signatures would have been washed away. I really feel for this investigation team.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by ramana »

Chetak, There will be likely causes and one root cause. Yes some of the nearfield evidence would be unavailable. But once the hulk is raised and the investigations can lead to what happened. The root cause has to be confirmed by some tests.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by member_27444 »

Officers down the line are encouraged to hide defects and lie. A ship reporting a defect is taken as a demerit. Therefore on paper, a ship/submarine/ aircraft would appear to be sea worthy and combat worthy when everyone knows it is not.
When some one says there is a problem within forces beyond the rank of
Lt Col rank and equivalent. People get agitated here and shoot down the messenger
Code of conduct and integrity flows from the top
....
Chalo apun ka kam nahi to point out from field experience
The forces are part of our society. ...
The PM is the model to follow and forces top brass are just doing it fine
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by chetak »

ramana wrote:Chetak, There will be likely causes and one root cause. Yes some of the nearfield evidence would be unavailable. But once the hulk is raised and the investigations can lead to what happened. The root cause has to be confirmed by some tests.
Very, very rarely is there ONE root cause,saar.

There will generally be a small bouquet of them to carefully pick from. Need to ask the right questions and follow through logically and scientifically without any political bullshit to ambush the investigation. Seniors in any organization haven't got there without having learned to side step a few land mines on the way up, no??

Really doubt if any tangible evidence would have survived the prolonged immersion in salt water. Plenty of mangled metal for sure, including a lot of instant vaporization, but......

Didn't wonder why some of the bodies were not recovered?? A few of these would have just been vaporized depending on the proximity and which hatches were open at the time..
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Eric Leiderman »

An Accident of this sort is like sliced swiss cheese when the holes line up you have an accident , small insignificant , but in the right sequence.
There will be a lot to learn as they piece it together.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by titash »

chetak wrote:
ramana wrote:Chetak, There will be likely causes and one root cause. Yes some of the nearfield evidence would be unavailable. But once the hulk is raised and the investigations can lead to what happened. The root cause has to be confirmed by some tests.
Very, very rarely is there ONE root cause,saar.

There will generally be a small bouquet of them to carefully pick from. Need to ask the right questions and follow through logically and scientifically without any political bullshit to ambush the investigation. Seniors in any organization haven't got there without having learned to side step a few land mines on the way up, no??

Really doubt if any tangible evidence would have survived the prolonged immersion in salt water. Plenty of mangled metal for sure, including a lot of instant vaporization, but......

Didn't wonder why some of the bodies were not recovered?? A few of these would have just been vaporized depending on the proximity and which hatches were open at the time..
I second that. They will need to piece it together using a 5 Why (or something similar on those lines) technique for both non-conformance and non-detection. But there's going to be multiple threads, each of which will lead to (1) technical root cause, and (2) a systemic root cause.

The technical root cause is easy to address, but the systemic root cause will take courage to address and will need to delve deeper than "let's demote this guy - it happened on his watch"
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by ramana »

Chetak, I too have been part of many Failure Analysis Boards (FAB) and am very familar with RCA.
A root cause is the one which with effective corrective action will prevent the recurrence.
All others are other causes which also need to be addressed. And above all need to address the underlying circumustances which allowed the root cause to exist.

The "Swiss Cheese" analogy is for system or normal accident due to gaps or holes in the various processes and procedures.

I posted a pdf of RI Cook on the Accident Theory a few pages back.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by chetak »

Uday Bhaskar Rao has weighed in........ First of the many, I suspect...

Why did INS Sindhurakshak sink? An expert opinion

This man has the genius for stating the obvious.:)
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by ramana »

Chetak et al

Accompanying article graphic:

Image


ItI guess the Klubs ware stored in the torpedo tubes and accounts for one of them being launched.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by member_27444 »

And notice where the batteries are
Just below
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by ramana »

I would first define the signature event of the INS Sindhurakshak sinking and match all the probable causes to see if they could trigger the signature event. Then I would do a deep dive to further examine what circumstances enabled the most likely causes and start fixing them.

I think the signature event is the triple flame sequence that led to the sinking of the sub.

First the blue flame, then yellow flash and then the big bang.

So do these probable causes lead to this signature?
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by GeorgeWelch »

A compromise of the hull integrity allowed an excessive water incursion creating a negative-buoyancy situation.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by member_27444 »

The above is bush speak
Or as in public hospital death certificate "myocrdial infraction" on every one
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by chetak »

Amyrao wrote:The above is bush speak
Or as in public hospital death certificate "myocrdial infraction" on every one
They actually read cardio respiratory failure, sirjee :)
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by suryag »

http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20130916 ... -East.html

Fire on Nuclear Submarine in Russia’s Far East Extinguished

- why is it that russian submarines suffer from more disasters than all known submarine makes ?
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Lalmohan »

Righting the Costa Concordia

of interest for salvage techniques - watch the time lapse sequence
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Pratyush »

suryag wrote:http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20130916 ... -East.html

Fire on Nuclear Submarine in Russia’s Far East Extinguished

- why is it that russian submarines suffer from more disasters than all known submarine makes ?
Likely poor workmanship at the yard, poor maintenance coupled with poorly trained & motivated personnel.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by suryag »

Pratyush wrote:
suryag wrote:http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20130916 ... -East.html

Fire on Nuclear Submarine in Russia’s Far East Extinguished

- why is it that russian submarines suffer from more disasters than all known submarine makes ?
Likely poor workmanship at the yard, poor maintenance coupled with poorly trained & motivated personnel.
Essentially it is a russian version of our OFBs/Some PSUs
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Austin »

IIRC USN lost USS Miami in similar dock side fire incident last year and the submarine had to be written off finally.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by nikhil_p »

I was talking with my nephew (all of 12 years) about this. He was tallking about a salvage exercise. This was his solution...Not sure if it is possible or not, but the sheer ingenuity of it made me smile.

Drop a wall (you read it right - drop not build) made of octagon pods (the like you see at marine drive), around the Sub. This will creat a barrier around the sub and not allow more water to come in. Then use a system of pumps and filters to filter the brackish water. Use alum as a method to settle the water (the way he saw grandma do it when muddy water was comin in). This way the water will be cleaned and you can see the submarine. Cut the damaged front section off the submarine (thus removing the missiles) and then take the back end out of the water!

He even demo'ed it using a tub and using lego blocks! :)

Of course I helped his thinking along but nonetheless very happy with what he proposed!
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by ramana »

Encourage him. Maybe at a minimum he can become a naval architect.

Also help him write it up and and will have it sent /get it published.
Clear objectives and some sketches.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Lisa »

nikhil_p wrote:I was talking with my nephew (all of 12 years) about this. He was tallking about a salvage exercise. This was his solution...Not sure if it is possible or not, but the sheer ingenuity of it made me smile.

Drop a wall (you read it right - drop not build) made of octagon pods (the like you see at marine drive), around the Sub. This will creat a barrier around the sub and not allow more water to come in. Then use a system of pumps and filters to filter the brackish water. Use alum as a method to settle the water (the way he saw grandma do it when muddy water was comin in). This way the water will be cleaned and you can see the submarine. Cut the damaged front section off the submarine (thus removing the missiles) and then take the back end out of the water!

He even demo'ed it using a tub and using lego blocks! :)

Of course I helped his thinking along but nonetheless very happy with what he proposed!
Its called a coffer dam. All credit to your nephew but not a new idea.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Garooda »

Pratyush wrote:
suryag wrote:http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20130916 ... -East.html

Fire on Nuclear Submarine in Russia’s Far East Extinguished

- why is it that russian submarines suffer from more disasters than all known submarine makes ?
Likely poor workmanship at the yard, poor maintenance coupled with poorly trained & motivated personnel.
Not to mention over confidence, arrogancy and/or cockiness ???
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Lalmohan »

it is a good idea, once the coffer dam has been built, the hull needs to be stabilised (see costa concordia) and then the water can be pumped out. you can then more easily move in heavy gear and start to either plug the breach and refloat and tow away, or cut open on site and haul away. the latter is operationally easier but closes the yard for some time. you don't have to 'clean' the water, just pump it out.

the salvage experts will be deciding between these two basic approaches
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by NRao »

Austin wrote:IIRC USN lost USS Miami in similar dock side fire incident last year and the submarine had to be written off finally.
It was not an accident.
A shipyard worker, Casey James Fury, of Portsmouth, N.H., was sentenced to 17 years in prison after admitting he set fire to the Miami, which was in dry dock during a 20-month overhaul at Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in Kittery, Maine.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/08 ... z2fGTEFVFF
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Philip »

Fires of warships and subs during repairs/refits have often happened.There's so much of inflammable stuff during such work,paint,oil,etc.In most cases it has been found to be negligence of the dockyard staff.A Canadian sub ,Chicotouni caught fire during a transatlantic transit run too.Here's a piece on dangers subs face in the docks.

USS Miami fire shows dangers subs face in dock
By DAVID SHARP / Associated Press / September 9, 2012

http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe ... story.html
Some of the most serious ship and submarine calamities in U.S. naval history have happened with a vessel at dock, in construction or under repair.

In 1960, another nuclear-powered submarine, USS Sargo, suffered serious damage and the loss of one crew member during an oxygen fire at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii. And 50 shipyard workers died when the aircraft carrier Constellation caught fire during construction at Brooklyn Naval Shipyard later that year in New York.

The submarine Guitarro sank during construction in 1969 at Mare Island Naval Shipyard in California; watertight doors and hatches couldn’t be closed because of cables and hoses.

Minor problems can become big problems when a vessel’s sophisticated damage control systems are offline, said Norman Polmar, a naval analyst and author.

‘‘When the sub is not operational, you can’t count on the normal tried-and-tested damage control, firefighting and other safety systems,’’ Polmar said.

In the case of the USS Miami, firefighters reported that going into the sub was like stepping into a blast furnace, and a forensic study concluded that the temperature may have hit 1,000 degrees in areas, the Navy told The Associated Press.
Last edited by Philip on 19 Sep 2013 18:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by negi »

ramana wrote:One team is looking at possibility that a stuxnet type virus was introduced either accidentally or deliberately during the refit.
Stuxnet only targets specific PLCs not sure if Kilo uses any of those (I think Siemens to be specific ) ; also given the time period these were built in I am not sure if they even can be bugged so easily (as in they do not have much SW as such a lot of the systems are analog).
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by negi »

We are notorious for using armaments well beyond their shelf lives a torpedo powered by Kero-H2o2 mix or Kero-Oxygen bi-propellant being employed on board a vessel well past their certified shelf lives is a recipe for disaster because you don't know if the built in safety mechanism works any more or in the desired fashion.

Every year we have embarrassing incidents during exercises in the sea which are obviously not reported in the media (and may be rightly so) but question is are measures being taken to prevent them in future ?
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Singha »

I like the virginia block3 - first the spherical sonar, then 12 VLS in 2 supertubes, then torpedo room. the control room is behind the sail and separated by double bulkheads from the explosives in the front.

http://media.defenceindustrydaily.com/i ... way_lg.jpg

non hull penetrating masts are now COTS

love or hate them, the USN sets the standard and trends and has superb designers.

even Rus has abandoned the 2 hull concept and going for single hull subs now.
spherical sonar, VL tubes for SLCMs, non hull penetrating masts, pumpjets, no-refueling long cycle naval reactors, albacore hull shape, the most compact SLBMs...almost every new innovation in modern subs has been USN.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Philip »

Singha,Russia hasn't abandoned the double-hull concept.Both Borei and Yasen classes have double hulls.It is only with the Amur,and that too to bring down costs making it more affordable for exports,where it has deviated from established DH designs.In fact,one of the German U-212 boat design has a partial double hull portion.
The design in based on a partial double hull in which the larger-diameter forward section is connected to the narrower-diameter after section (carrying the two liquid oxygen tanks and the hydrogen tankage) by a tapered section accommodating the fuel cell plant. The underwater propulsion can provide a maximum speed of 20 kts declining to 8 kts on just the fuel cells.
Double hulls were common during the early days of sub development.The remains of the Kursk is the best example of the incredible strength of Russian DH subs.Even in the SR disaster,the fact that the sub had a double hull contained the major force of the blast thus saving the subs and warships alongside.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Prem Kumar »

Singha wrote:I like the virginia block3 - first the spherical sonar, then 12 VLS in 2 supertubes, then torpedo room. the control room is behind the sail and separated by double bulkheads from the explosives in the front.

http://media.defenceindustrydaily.com/i ... way_lg.jpg

non hull penetrating masts are now COTS

love or hate them, the USN sets the standard and trends and has superb designers.

even Rus has abandoned the 2 hull concept and going for single hull subs now.
spherical sonar, VL tubes for SLCMs, non hull penetrating masts, pumpjets, no-refueling long cycle naval reactors, albacore hull shape, the most compact SLBMs...almost every new innovation in modern subs has been USN.
Just Wow!

Also the shield for the propeller - probably to mask the noise in various directions. I think even the towed array sonar was a USN innovation.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Lalmohan »

and for years NATO used to fear the latest Soviet subs! :)
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by negi »

Double hull approach was employed because Soviet way of reducing noise levels was different they did not have gold plated manufacturing machinery so went for an extra layer of hull to isolate noise as well as to achieve a more efficient hydrodynamic shape. Just like the MBT scene they wanted to overwhelm the NATO with numbers and firepower that is why they had a huge fleet of nuke powered subs as well as specialized ones with a all titanium hull like the Lada class.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by chetak »

negi wrote:We are notorious for using armaments well beyond their shelf lives a torpedo powered by Kero-H2o2 mix or Kero-Oxygen bi-propellant being employed on board a vessel well past their certified shelf lives is a recipe for disaster because you don't know if the built in safety mechanism works any more or in the desired fashion.

Every year we have embarrassing incidents during exercises in the sea which are obviously not reported in the media (and may be rightly so) but question is are measures being taken to prevent them in future ?
Not true. :)

Nothing is used "past" the service life, sirjee.

At the most, the equipment is inspected, verified and certified by the OEMs and a limited extension is legally granted for further use.

After a very limited number of such life extension cycles, the items are junked.

There is very extensive infrastructure to care for, preserve and professionally maintain such equipment.

There is a well defined process and program for proof firings that ensure that equipment of any given batch is verified for operational potency.

A large number of technical and operational personnel are dedicated solely for this purpose.

There is extensive documentation and stringent inspections to back up and check all maintenance work and test records. Nobody fudges these because lives depend on it, the very lives of the technicians and officers who do this work as they personally may very well wind up in harm's way themselves along with the same weapons in some boat.

This is the process used by ALL Navies.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Austin »

Dr Norman Polmar a well known name in Submarine Community in West had summarised US and Russian submarine program across decades plus and minus etc to US Congress should be a good read to any one interested in this subject

http://www.fas.org/man/congress/1997/h970318n.htm
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by Singha »

are you sure the Borei is a double hull....design looks very similar to ohio class.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by negi »

Chetak sir what you are saying is theory; we already have read more than once stories of how faulty tank rounds went off in the barrel of a MBT. Some time back a sailor got killed on INS Delhi when INS Mumbai's AA gun got activated and it fired a lone round on INS Delhi and this happened when both ships were berthed side by side on jetty. These are incidents in open source there are quite a few which go unreported for obvious reasons. Mind you I ma not saying it is any one person's fault what I wish to say is a lot of times our jugaadu nature gets us in trouble. The manner in which Brahmos is loaded on to the R class is a classic example some time back the entire canister snapped loose because the jugaadu loading system did not align the round properly.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by chetak »

negi wrote:Chetak sir what you are saying is theory; we already have read more than once stories of how faulty tank rounds went off in the barrel of a MBT. Some time back a sailor got killed on INS Delhi when INS Mumbai's AA gun got activated and it fired a lone round on INS Delhi and this happened when both ships were berthed side by side on jetty. These are incidents in open source there are quite a few which go unreported for obvious reasons. Mind you I ma not saying it is any one person's fault what I wish to say is a lot of times our jugaadu nature gets us in trouble. The manner in which Brahmos is loaded on to the R class is a classic example some time back the entire canister snapped loose because the jugaadu loading system did not align the round properly.
negi ji,

The errors you have mentioned are operational ones. I was talking of maintenance, storage, proofing and testing in the IN, Sadly your point is very valid and however reluctantly it may be, I have to agree with you.

Operations are inherently dangerous and even more so when you have young hot shot morons slacking off instead of actively supervising and taking charge. Most of them are officer level supervisory failures with inadequate oversight or training at the root of it. A watched pot never boils over.

Systems are getting more complicated, trainings getting compressed, rock bottom standards for recruitment and they have to make do with what's available.

Jugad is always combined with experience and confidence. Even one leg missing in this triad will spell disaster.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by chetak »

Navy’s probe into submarine INS Sindhurakshak tragedy nowhere near completion

NEW DELHI: Over a month after submarine INS Sindhurakshak sank because of a series of onboard explosions at the Mumbai naval dockyard the Navy is nowhere near concluding its probe into the incident. The tragedy claimed 18 lives including three officers,

Naval divers, who have clocked around 1,500 hours of operations since the accident on August 14, have managed to recover only 11 bodies till now. Nine of them have been handed over to the families after they were identified through DNA tests.

"The submarine's internal structure, especially in the weapons and other chambers close to the nose, has been severely damaged and mangled. The vessel's outer hull has also developed cracks, with its water-tight integrity breaking," said an officer.

The board of inquiry (BoI), chaired by Commodore Deepak Bisht, will only be able to complete its probe once the 3,000-tonne submarine — submerged in about eight-metre water — is "fished out" for forensic and other examinations.

The tender or the RFP (request for proposal) will be "floated soon" for the complex salvage operations to be undertaken. Several global and domestic companies — like Titan Salvage, Arihant Divers, Duke Offshore, SMIT and Graf Technical Marine — have already submitted their initial proposals after inspecting the submarine.

"The aim is to expeditiously ink the contract after the RFP is floated for the herculean salvage operation that could take a few months," Commodore Bisht said.

Preliminary findings indicated that it was "an accident or inadvertent mishandling of ammunition" in the fully-loaded weapons compartment of INS Sindhurakshak that caused things to spiral out of control with some missile and torpedo warheads exploding in "sympathetic detonation", as was earlier reported by TOI.

The Kilo-class submarine, with a full complement of 18 missiles and torpedoes, was slated to head for "a long deployment patrol" on August 14 itself. The unexploded torpedoes and missiles still inside the submerged submarine have been found strewn around after being dislodged from the six firing tubes and 12 racks. However, the likelihood of them being "unstable is very remote" because they have "already been exposed to explosions, very high pressure and temperatures, and have been underwater for over a month".

The accident — the first one of its kind — jolted the Navy. Apart from the loss of life, it also underlined that the force is left with only 13 aging diesel-electric submarines — nine Kilo-class of Russian origin and four HDW of German-origin. Only seven to eight of them are operational at any given time.

Incidentally, INS Sindhurakshak, which had cost $113 million when it was inducted in December 1997, had completed a $156 million prolonged "mid-life medium refit-cum-upgrade" in Russia in January.
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Re: INS Sindurakshak Sinks after explosion in Mumbai Naval D

Post by SaiK »

one the major areas of requirements engineering is not being attended too at all after this disaster. i.e, heavy lifts... there are super crains that do this job.. but we need investments. we should also think about dual use of such crains, where all it can be used.

we are into super structures, so, we need super crains.
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