Also, SJha answered one of question : are we on track for 12 this year?
Question is coming bcoz just 1 have been produced till now in current year.https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1044851828649848833
---> HAL says it is. We still have six months to go before we come to end of fiscal 2018-19. let's see.
US military has an accounting/monitoring system called Earned Value Management (EVM).
You earn your value if you meet both production and cost targets.
Very simple idea but powerful results.
You take the budget funds and spread them per your program goals.
Depending on the program early months could see slow allocation and a ramp up and steady for some duration and then ramp down.
Then you track actual hours expended in those months.
So it shows planned curve and actual curve.
So far simple idea. Then comes the power of EVM.
They calculate schedule and cost performance indices.
Now if either is below 15% you will never make it without re-planning.*
So 12 planes in 2018-2019 is one plane a month.
In six months should be 6 planes roll out.
By their own reports, they are behind 5 planes.
i.e. 5/6 which is >>> 15%.
So making 1 plane so far and trust to deliver the 11 won't happen.
Not enough schedule runway.
* The reason is the Gompertz curve. If you plot % complete for a project versus time you get the famous S curve. This is an exponential function. If there is significant shortfall, it takes for ever to reach 100% complete as it asymptotes.