Trikaal wrote:I took squadron nos as 18 instead of 20. But even then, there are currently 118 jaguars in service which comes to almost 6 squadrons. Adding 2 squadrons of Rafale easily takes the number past 42.
Also, 15+3+4+2.5+6+11=41.5, not 39.5
When you are replying to this post, please do not quote the entire post.
18 is the rule of thumb. But depending on aircraft type, that number does vary. But let us go with 18 aircraft to make things simple. Also, the numbers below are an estimate in the future and does not represent the strength now.Rafale F3R:
36 aircraft in 2 squadrons.MiG-29UPG:
~ 54 aircraft in 3 squadrons.Mirage 2000I/TI:
~ 45 aircraft in 2.5 squadrons.Su-30MKI:
272 aircraft on order, 7 hull loses to date. I am not including the 8th one that crashed on June 27th, because that was a pre delivery aircraft and not part of any IAF squadron. That leaves 265 aircraft, of which 240 have been delivered to the IAF as of October 2017 (as per wiki chacha). That is close to 15 squadrons, but lets us go with 15 squadrons.Jaguar Darin III:
~ 80 aircraft in 4 squadrons. Rajat Pandit has reported that 80 will be distributed in 5 squadrons. That means No.6 Dragons will also be included. Logical, considering the first Darin III was a Jaguar IM with the serial number of JM 258 - an aircraft that belongs to No 6 Sqn. Dragons is a not a full strength squadron, as only 12 examples of the IM variant were built by HAL. But since he has reported it, let us go with 5 squadrons and not 4. By the way, here is the link to that article ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7294&p=2284612#p2284612Tejas Mk 1:
40 aircraft in 2 squadrons. As of today, nine aircraft have been delivered (from SP-1 to SP-9). Production numbers have been steadily increasing, with one aircraft delivered in 2014, two aircraft delivered in 2016, three aircraft delivered in 2017 and three aircraft delivered to date in 2018. From 2019 onwards, both lines are expected to churn out 16 aircraft in total or 8 per line each year. With 31 Mk1s left to deliver, it will take ~ 2 years to complete that production run.Up to this point, it is more or less somewhat on schedule. The last two below are the iffy ones.Tejas Mk 1A:
83 aircraft in 4 squadrons. No timeline on when these aircraft are expected to join the IAF. But I believe the plan is to commence Mk1A production, once the Mk1 is done. So let us assume by January 2021, Mk1A production begins. If both lines are still churning out Tejas at 16 aircraft/yr, it will take a little over 5 years to complete that production run. So by 2026, Mk 1A is complete or at least that is the plan.Tejas Mk 2:
201 aircraft ordered, as per Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. As per Air Chief Marshal Dhanoa, Mk 2 will fly by 2023 and enter service by 2027. Here is the link to that claim (refer to last para) ---> https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/natio ... 98904.html
That is a very ambitious goal for the Mk2, but taking the Air Chief's timeline...it will take HAL 12.5 years to complete the Mk 2 production run of 201 birds at the rate of 16/yr. The Air Chief also said that by 2032, the IAF will achieve 42 squadrons. To get to 42 squadrons, HAL will have to achieve a production run of 40 aircraft/yr. HAL will never achieve that number with two lines churning out 16 aircraft/yr. Thus the reason for MRCA 3.0, which has its own issues to navigate through. At the glacial pace the MoD is moving, the IAF will never hit 42 even by 2032!
Therefore to counter that, acquistions of current types
should be looked into. Now see the numbers below (similar to the numbers above, but with a few additions);Rambha Sqns
: 15 sqns on order/in service + 2 moreRafale Sqns
: 2 sqns on order + 2 moreTejas Mk 1
: 2 sqns on order/in serviceTejas Mk 1A
: 4 sqns on order + 2 moreTejas Mk 2
: 11 sqns on order
: 3 sqns in service. To be retired in the early 2030s as they will have reached their end of TTL (Total Technical Life).Mirage 2000I/TI
: 2.5 sqns in service. To be retired in the early 2030s as they will have reached their end of TTL.Jaguar Darin III
: 5 sqns in service. To be retired between 2035 - 2040 as they will have reached their end of TTL.
Not including the MiG-29UPG, Mirage 2000I/TI and Jaguar Darin III, the above comes to 40 squadrons. So two squadrons short. If we add the Mirage 2000I/TI, the MiG-29UPG and the Jaguar Darin III it brings it up to 50.5 squadrons. But there will be significant overlap (with retirements and new inductions). The IAF will never have 50.5 squadrons in the ORBAT at any given point in time. But think for a second of the firepower capability that these 40 squadrons will give the IAF. Please do not just focus on numbers alone.The spanner in the works is MRCA 3.0
The main reasons I am advocating for ordering two additional Rafale, Su-30MKI and Tejas squadrons are;
1) The Rambha production run is better than the Tejas production, as of today. Quicker induction of aircraft, which will result in quicker retirement of the MiG-21.
2) The Rambha production exists and is still churning out aircraft. Tacking on another 40 birds is not hard for the line to complete in a timely fashion. The current production line will complete their 272 order next year.
3) Base infrastructure - to the tune of $2 billion - has already been invested at Ambala and Hasimara. Both airbases can house two squadrons of the Rafale each. The Govt today announced that Rafale deliveries will commence in Sept 2019 and be complete by April 2022. Under three years. If we order another 36 - 44 birds, deliveries of the second batch can be complete by 2025.
4) Adding to the existing inventory of spares, weapons, tools, etc for the Rambha and the Rafale are *MUCH* easier to do, than go through MRCA 3.0 and invest money for *EVERYTHING* in a new type.
5) Ordering these six squadrons are easy on the CAPEX, but gives the IAF what it needs. MRCA 3.0 will kill the Tejas Mk 2.
It is the fear of the Mk 1A (and Mk 2) not coming in on time, that has led the IAF to over take the project from HAL.
Hope this helps.