Think Tejas Mk2 is set up for tough times, to put it subtly. Why do I say so? Simply because of the number of programs being attempted right now, capabilities being sought and timelines clashing.
Ghatak UAV - Scale model to be tested in 2019-2020 with Tech Demo 2-3 years thereafter, though haven't seen any timelines on that. Given we don't have advanced armed UAV capability and no one likely to share, this program shall stay the course.
AMCA - NGTD comes in 2022, prototype by 2025 or so, and perhaps LSP ready model by 2030! Aircraft should start rolling out from 2030 onwards. Can non stealth version be created to speed up timeline? Very much so and shall offer more than what is being offered by LCA Mk2. AMCA creates 5th gen capability and perhaps more, given we are likely to advance in Network driven warfare. Can easily replace Mirages, Jaguars, Mig 29 / 27s and offers something unique i.e., 5th Gen capability.
Tejas Mk2 (MWF) - Great specs but timelines are worrying. Prototype to come by 2023 (later than NGTD!!), starts flying in operational config 2029. Bang in timeframe of AMCA. Also, Navy Tejas may eat into resources for Tejas Mk2 given same parentage and politicos not understanding Navy Tejas and Tejas Mk2. Does Tejas Mk2 offer anything unique? Perhaps not. Non stealth version of AMCA shall do more than what Tejas Mk2 shall ever do. The scenario I see working for Tejas Mk2 is - speeded up timeline else plays right into the storyline of MRCA 2. But I sincerely hope I am wrong.
Navy Tejas - Given the push from political establishment, this has new lease of life. Offers unique capability to meet unique requirements and can be very strongly argued. There shall fight for budget with Tejas Mk2 but shall live on given that Navy has been perhaps the stronger supporter of Desi stuff and we lack true carrier based aircraft.
Tejas Mk1a - Very natural evolution of Mk1. Offers distinct capability difference from Mk1. Timeline not too far out. Once enters squadron service, may be ordered more than 83 currently approved. Another factor shall be Mk2 timeline.
Strategic planners, finance managers shall have lot to ponder over over next few months. My bet is, it shall be toss up between non stealth AMCA and Tejas Mk2 with non stealth AMCA winning.