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Rogue nuke out of Pakistan - article by KS and reactions

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Postby TSJones » 25 May 2006 03:03

What Johann has pointed out is quite true. India will have to ultimately ascertain its own line who was responsible in the event of a nuke attack. I don't think it is America's domain to point out where the nuke material came from. That would be rather presumptuous. And I would also like to point out that it is not Americans who think India can't perform tests to determine responsibility, it is NRIs like RajeeGuru who suggested it in the first place. If yer gonna run with the big dawgs then you will have to make yer own hit list.

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Postby Rye » 25 May 2006 03:09

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Last edited by Rye on 25 May 2006 04:04, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Gerard » 25 May 2006 03:10

Thankfully a rogue nuke may be far too valuable to use against an Indian city, which to the jihadi mind, already belongs to the lands of islam.

India after all is the land of the Bhopal gas disaster, which has degenerated into an opportunity for Indian netas to steal compensation money owed to victims.

Was it Shiv who said that nobody will miss 50,000 dead indians, not even other Indians? Shocked me when I first read it but gives idea of Indian resilience.

The jihadi WMD does not frighten the Indian neta.

A jihadi with a loose nuke will instead use it against manhatten. The US has much to fear from its history of coddling Pakistan.
Last edited by Gerard on 25 May 2006 05:38, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Johann » 25 May 2006 03:24

Vikram S, N Rao,
I am not talking about how India ought to respond to an attack, or suggesting that a response *must* be tied to lab results. I am simply commenting on the discussion about India’s independent ability to identify the use of Pakistani fissile material through technical means, and the implications of a positive match.

While its not known how many of these known and potential sources (enriched uranium from yellowcake from Niger via Libya and Pakistan’s own mines in the Suleyman Range; plutonium from Khushab or possibly the DPRK) the GoI has obtained samples of, there seems little doubt that it has samples for *at least* one of the flavours of Pakistani HEU.

My personal guess is that it probably has samples of Pakistani HEU from both sources, and I wouldn’t discount the possibility of Indian airborne sampling after Chagai/Ras Koh picking up some very interesting particles.

In the event of an attack I doubt the failure to find a match would be given any publicity, but a positive match would become a very important card in the Indian response, whatever its nature.

Publicly establishing and reinforcing the Indian capability to identify isotopic signatures of Pakistani fissile materials might actually act as a useful deterrent against Pakistan.

Establishing a shared international database of isotopic fingerprints (not necessarily the physical samples themselves) with the IAEA or NSG or perhaps the PSI would also be a good practical step.

Spinster,
Not too many people still quoting Wallace et al on the yield of Indian tests are there? One of the results of the Bush-Singh agreement is that those who endorse the deal have publicly accepted that the size and shape Indian deterrent is primarily limited by Indian security perceptions rather than by ability and resources, rejecting the dominant line of NP dogma which was in particular prominence between the Shakti tests and Clinton’s visit to India. Greater commercial industrial and scientific interaction between Indian and international nuclear establishments following the final settlement of the deal will only strengthen the Indian reputation.


Rocky,
I think the best way to put it is that not everyone who is ideologically Al-Qaeda is organisationally Al Qaeda, although they may work closely with them. Regardless of that the WMD fatwa is real, and Bin Laden's and Zawahiris threats and warnings to certain specific parties are real, as is the relationship between their messages and the attacks that have taken place. Al Qaeda has its own priorities in jihad, and other strains of jihad have their own priorities. That isnt to say that all the different strains do not work together closely for mutual benefit. They certainly do. I think the best way to think of it as an alliance structure within the jihadi world. Allies can have their own priorities, and differences but still work together. Think of the French and Americans in WWII down to the current cooperation in the Balkans, Levant, Afghanistan, etc. That is the complex truth - oversimplification in either direction - Al Qaeda, Sipahi-e-Saheba, and Hamas as completely unrelated, or Al Qaeda, Hamas and Sipahi Saheba as fronts of the same organisation are *both* misleading.

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Postby kgoan » 25 May 2006 04:02

Occasionally the "we are like this onlee" whining gets to be so ridiculous as to be barely believable.

Folk who think that we're going to *wait* and ascertain *where* a nuke attack came from before the first response are living in a state so delusional as to be almost Pakistani like.

The second response is a different matter.

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Postby NRao » 25 May 2006 04:14

TSJ,

I totally agree with you.

However, having fully understood that Pakistan is in the US's national interest, I hope the US extends the same understanding (IF they are capable :) ) when India acts and does not repeat the "Do not cross the LOC" mantra.

But, IF the US is attacked, please let us know, we will help out.

Frankly, I think on strategic matters it is the US that is NOT able to cut the umbilical. Agni 3 is a fresh and vivid example. Creature of habit.

Johann,

Understood what you are saying.

I hope you understand that the issue how India responds is moot if one even talks about isotopes. What I am saying is that it is very irresponsible - no matter in which country a nuke is used - for the simple reason the Islamic bad guys will factor that into their frame work. To prevent that from happening, we need to remove such talk from the table.

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Postby Manu » 25 May 2006 05:54

kgoan wrote:Occasionally the "we are like this onlee" whining gets to be so ridiculous as to be barely believable.

Folk who think that we're going to *wait* and ascertain *where* a nuke attack came from before the first response are living in a state so delusional as to be almost Pakistani like.

The second response is a different matter.


At the risk of being burnt in effigy.........

Sorry for being cynical, and please forgive me for I remain absolutely skeptical of the direction and intent of our 'response'.

And yes, this is not a Bi-Partisan criticism.

Hopefully, my cynicism is like interest paid in advance on a debt that will never come due.

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Postby shiv » 25 May 2006 06:21

Pardon me. but I am thinking of (God forbid) a day when a nuke explodes in an Indian city. Maybe you shoud pray that you are killed by that nuke rather than be exposed to reactions of those left alive:

The news the next day will be

"Massive blast in Jingorampur"

"A mysterious blast has devastated large areas of Jingorampur. The blast which occred at 10 AM caused the ground to shake and people in surrounding villages reported seeing a bright flash. People ran out their houses suspecting that an Earthquake had occured.

The district officials in the nearby city of Whacknagar said that although all communication had been cut off with Jingorampur - there was nothing to "be concerned about. This is a comnon occurrence due to power failures in Summer. The official said everything was under control. He confirmed that an earthquake could have occured as the town was near a seismic zone - but there were no reports of any deaths so far."

A few hours later..

"Jingorampur flattened"

Thousands of people have been killed in what appears to have been a massive earthquake in Jingorampur..relief efforts are on..The central government is siezed of the matter and an ex gratia payment of Rs 10,000 for the families of the bereaved has been announced."

The next day

"Death and misery in Jingorampur Quake"

"Eyewitnesss reported a blast and many people have been severely burned. Even people on fields have been killed. "I was reminded of pictures of the tsunami" said one witness. Jingorampur is located 400 Km from the coast. and a tsunami has been ruled out."

Some people have blamed the Army which had an ammunition dump in the area. An army recue team member denied this. Asked why the Army team were seen wearing protective suits and masks the response was because the disaster was caused by a nuclear bomb explosion"


A day later..

"Has Jingorampur been nuked?"

"Reports from the Army and defence ministry sate that the disaster was caused by a nuclear explosion. NGOs were quick to blame the Atomic Energy Commission in India which is known to have a poor safety record.

A demonstration in Delhi to protest agaisnt slow relief efforts was lathi charged by the police. One protester blamed Pakistan for the disaster. This was rejected by the misnister of state for lame excuses. Anti national elements of the right wing are trying to harm the peace process."

One week later...

"It has been confirmed that Jingorampur has been devastated by a nuclear bomb. A high power governmental enquiry has been constituted, headed by retired chief justice Blahblah to try and establish the source of the bomb. In the meantime the government has asked the people to maintain communal harmony. It thanked the government of Pakistan for its offer of aid, and rejected reports in the US media that a rogue Pakistani nuclear bomb had been exploded. "The US has so many bombs - it could have been a US bomb" said a minister - not wishing to be named""

Four days later

"Sehwag dropped from Cricket tour of Australia due to injury"
"Price of kerosene not to be raised even as Oil prices rise to $120 a barrel"
"TV returns to Jingopura - the first signs of normality"..

Did someone say "cycle of life" somewhere? :roll:

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Postby Johann » 25 May 2006 06:30

N Rao,

In the long run, an international isotopic database is going to be the only way to make sure that all states keep a *really* tight leash on their (particularly weapons grade) fissile material against the possibility of either unintended third party transfer, and implication in the unthinkable.

Under such circumstances would Russia want to have to pay for the decontamination and reconstruction of New Delhi, or would it rather improve internal controls on fismat?

Would the Chinese or North Koreans want to take the chance of unexpectedly facing the ultimate retaliation if their isotopic fingerprints were found in a mushroom cloud over Bombay or New York, or would they rather make sure their fissile material wasnt in Pakistani hands?

Would Pakistan be willing to use its own fismat if it couldnt get its hands on anything else, and knowing that anything out of Khushab or Kahuta would be identified as such?

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Postby spuneet » 25 May 2006 06:59

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Last edited by spuneet on 25 May 2006 09:25, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby VikramS » 25 May 2006 07:29

Technical Question:

Is the signature a function of the source only or a depedent on the source, the refinement technology and other factors. Also if the signature is based on the source, how do you check if different batches from the same source have the same signature?

Johann:

I agree with you that a database of isotope signatures is going to be useful. However, any international database will have limited utility. If a TSP nuke does go up in the free world, the rest of the free world, will put immense pressure on the victim not to escalate. There is nothing which prevents the tests to be fudged to give TSP an escape path.

After all the FBI "lost" samples of explosives (was it grenades) which were discovered after the Bombay blasts in 1993 and sent to the US to confirm the link with TSP! In the case of a nuke, the stakes are much higher.

That is why I feel, that India will not wait for a "match" if a JDAM makes its way to India.

OTOH, I also agree that JDAMs being so precious, it is unlikely that it will be wasted in India. If it is used it will be on a much higher value target. There are just too many Indians for a single JDAM to make a difference.

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Postby RajGuru » 25 May 2006 07:31

Establishing a shared international database of isotopic fingerprints (not necessarily the physical samples themselves) with the IAEA or NSG or perhaps the PSI would also be a good practical step.


AFAIK only US DOE has that database. I would be surprised if they share it with IAEA or NSG. Only a partial list might be available with IAEA or NSG. India must have that database. Also ability to quickly identify (within first few hours ) the isotope and make a match. If it is established that it came from any reactor in Pak then its upto the PM and his core team to decide the fate of this country.

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Postby JCage » 25 May 2006 08:04

Shiv: to continue

BBC report: Massive explosion in Jingorampur, thousands believed dead. India has had massive riots in the past few years dating to the demolishing of a 450 year old mosque by Hindu nationalists. A few years later, suspected extremists attacked a train at an Indian station setting off a pogrom in which thousands of Muslims were slain. While Indias services sector and call centers have come in for praise, many areas of India have been bereft of investment. The oppressed undercastes have now picked up arms to fight New Delhis rule under the Maoist movement . There are over 700,000 troops fighting suspected militants in Muslim dominated Kashmir in predominantly Hindu India.
The United States and the United Kingdom have expressed sympathy over the blast in Jingorampur named after a mythical Hindu God Ram.


------

-JC

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Postby Rye » 25 May 2006 08:21

JCage, let us not forget the effect of a WMD attack on the precious "peace process"

Indian Express: "Peace process will not be affected": Prime Minister

In a strongly worded speech, the Prime Minister Gubo Singh Yadav castigated the terrorists for committing the heinous act in Jingorampur and said that the memory of those who died in Jingorampur would forever be etched in the minds of Indians, but this dastardly attack would not come in the way of the Peace process between India and Pakistan, which is currently in its 15th year. "Even though there have been many ups and downs in the past in relations with Pakistan, we cannot allow such incidents to cast a pall on the peace process between the people of India and Pakistan. Indians and Pakistanis are of the same blood and we cannot let such minor irritants draw us apart", declared the PM. Pleading again for communal harmony and warning fundamentalist hindutva elements from creating any trouble, the PM asserted that the full power of the state would be used against any elements trying to stir communal hatred using the jingorampur incident as an excuse. Later in the day, the MEA received Pakistani officials in talks on pakistani withdrawal from Siachen heights, which was occupied by India between 1984 and 2007, before Pakistan took control of this territory.
--PTI

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Postby NRao » 25 May 2006 08:39

Johann,

That is all well and good for academic value - I have nothing against that.

Two items of interest:
1. Islamic intellectuals will surely will alter the isotopic content to make the DB useless.
2. Islamic unintellectuals will not care abot a DB

And, in either case a nuke blast in India is too late even if a database exists.

The point being how does one prevent a nuke explosion and NOT what do we do AFTER a blast.

My answer:
prevension: Hold TSP (and China) responsible
AFter the blast: Blast TSP no matter what

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Postby merlin » 25 May 2006 12:48

Thankfully a rogue nuke may be far too valuable to use against an Indian city, which to the jihadi mind, already belongs to the lands of islam.


On the contrary.

Let's assume that Al Q (or whoever) doesn't have the balls to smuggle in and detonate a bomb in, say, New York because they know that every last one of them will be killed in retaliation and *they will not achieve their goals (which is not suicide for the glory of Allah)*. Let us further assume that they still want to blackmail Uncle but their latest attempts at blackmail have been laughed out of even Foggy Bottom. So what do they do to scare the shit out of Uncle? Why, its easy to smuggle in and detonate a nuke in India, right? The bloody Indians will not retaliate because they will be caught up in endless arguments about who did this (PD) and whether they should show restraint and so on. So risks are low. It would also serve to terrorize Uncle because Uncle does not know *if there are more nukes some of which are already in the US*.

Pakis blackmail Uncle with a gun pointed to their own head.
Al Q (or whoever) blackmails Uncle by pointing the gun to a third party and implying that the third party's fate will soon be Uncle's if Uncle doesn't comply.

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Postby Lalmohan » 25 May 2006 14:38

Al Q detontating in the US will be as the start of the global end game strategy, i.e. when the mullahs are convinced that gog and magog are on the prowl and the mahdi is coming to cleanse the earth

small matter that all remotely islamic centres will thereon turn to carbon... but hey, will eventually make oil again in years to come... or maybe the mullahs and the jehovahs witnesses can fight over the newly cleansed earth... who knows?

whereas the TSP'ians detonating in India will be limited to their own end game strategy which is a lot more complex in nature

i think the Indian assured retalliation doctrine does encompass any usage of nukes by pakistani 'elements' - including JDAMs. All we need now is a mechanism that assures it - and that the TSP'ians understand that the mechanism will kick in regardless, so they had better keep control

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Postby Philip » 25 May 2006 16:23

The "Jig" nuking reminds me of the time when (wasn't it Morarji?) ,who called India's nuclear test "not" a nuclear test because it was an "implosion" not an "explosion"!

With Pak accelerating tis ballistic and cruise missile capability with first strike,it never fails to amaze me how we are day-by-day weakening our defences by not further developing our second strike capability.If it is true that pak told Indai that if Israel hit it with nukes it would immediately hit India,then we should tell the Chinese that if ever India was hit by a Pak nuke we would hit them all over their fair land! Unless we test Agni-3,4,5,etc.,with future nuclear sub-launched versions that can hit/ reach them from any ocean on the planet,we are sitting ducks for a combined Sino-Pak conspiracy to defang us in the future.

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Postby RajGuru » 25 May 2006 16:59

There needs to be a declared policy by the GoI that if a nuke goes off anywhere in India then there would be a complete annihilation of pakistani territory regardless of the origin of the nuke. If the retal op is delayed by even 24 hours, the so called international community would come in to rescue pakistan and calling india for restraint.
Pakis should be made accountable and not chinese eventhough they are the prime perpetrators. Chinese can make a getaway if the unthinkable happens. We will definately punish them but in the same coin. but we have to make sure pakis dont.
If the government makes it a declared policy that Pakistan is solely responsible for any JDAM and deserves full retaliation resulting in a nuclear waste site for the next 500 years then we would bell the cat.

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Postby Alok_N » 25 May 2006 19:26

Johann wrote:In the long run, an international isotopic database is going to be the only way to make sure that all states keep a *really* tight leash on their (particularly weapons grade) fissile material against the possibility of either unintended third party transfer, and implication in the unthinkable.


who will have access to the database? ... what will prevent the keeper of the database to make some weapons with the composition cooked up to fake another country's signature?

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Postby NRao » 25 May 2006 19:49

Actually the more I think about this isotope based solution the more miserable I get. It hands over the responsibility of nuclear proliferation over to a scientist and at best hopes that community is honest. China and Pakistan has JUST proved that combo do not exist.

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Postby Alok_N » 25 May 2006 19:51

RajGuru wrote:There needs to be a declared policy by the GoI that if a nuke goes off anywhere in India then there would be a complete annihilation of pakistani territory regardless of the origin of the nuke.


this is still a partial stance ... the next step would be to notify beijing about the same ...

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Postby Rye » 25 May 2006 19:52

If Pakistan nukes India, the only winner is beijing, whether or not India retaliates against pakistan. But it would be good for India to have a stated policy of retaliation --- silence on this matter from the Indian politicians means they have no plans now and they are not going to develop one in the heat of an attack.

Alok_N wrote:

who will have access to the database? ... what will prevent the keeper of the database to make some weapons with the composition cooked up to fake another country's signature?


Exactly. As someone pointed out before, let us recall what happened to the evidence from the bombay terrorist attack that was handed to the Americans who promptly destroyed it --- they will do exactly the same and provide cover for plausible deniability IF we ever go that route (as NRao has repeatedly stated). This is the wrong way to go -- screw verification.

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Postby Vick » 25 May 2006 20:06

If Pakistan overtly nukes India and/or a JDAM goes of inside India, just nuking Pakistan isn't enough. Pakistan as a political entity would have to be dismantled even if it risks further nukes.

Selective nuking would have to be used to achieve tactical and strategic objectives. Just counterforce nuking (city busting for the sake of retaliation) will not do. The objective of Indian second strike should not be to punish Pakistan or destroy Pakistan, it should be to transform it into a non-entity, a historical footnote.

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Postby asharma » 25 May 2006 20:15

A declared policy of nuking xxx or yyy or both or any, for that matter, will only result in India being nuked by China and/ or US IMMEDIATELY in the event of a nukular strike.

That would only make IROT all the more eager for nuke JDAM on Indian soil... "sanam, hum dubey ya na dubey, baki dunia to tumko duba degi"

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Postby Rye » 25 May 2006 20:20

asharma wrote:

A declared policy of nuking xxx or yyy or both or any, for that matter, will only result in India being nuked by China and/ or US IMMEDIATELY in the event of a nukular strike.


And you came up with this based on what reasoning? Secondly, what is the National Security Advisor and Defence Ministry in India for? Sitting with their thumbs up each other's butt? Why the heck are we spending billions on $$s on weapons if the jokers who are supposedly running the country have no clue on how to create an iron-clad policy to keep the wolves out?

That would only make IROT all the more eager for nuke JDAM on Indian soil... "sanam, hum dubey ya na dubey, baki dunia to tumko duba degi"


Yeah, we are all very very very good at coming up with lame excuses for why inaction is always the solution to all Indian problems, which of course directly implies that the GoI is doing a bangup job of running the country.

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Postby asharma » 25 May 2006 20:32

There is a difference between inaction and SAYING nothing. I am advocating the latter, not the former. Please do read carefully :lol:

As for my reasoning-

1. let us assume that India has lots of weapons, lots of delivery systems contained in a viable triad (which is the find jingo hope).
2. Now let us say that India declares "Any nuclear action on Indian soil will result in immediate and full scale retaliation to IROT, and China"
3. A JDAM goes off
4. What do you think China will do? In order to protect itself from massive Indian retaliation (assuming they take us at our word ie that we will actually do what we say), it will have NO CHOICE but to make a pre-emptive strike......... becoz you see, we have already said that we are goign to nuke them.

Substitute China for IROT and you get the idea... hell, as long as India says "I will do FULL-SCALE nuke in response to ANY nuke", the US will nuke us first, if only "to prevent a global nuclear war"

JMT

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Postby ramana » 25 May 2006 20:37

x-posted....
BTW, Bernard Lewis in his talk on Islam and the West linked in the Islamism thread responds:

PAUL STAROBIN, NATIONAL JOURNAL: Professor, what, in your opinion, would be the impact on the mindset of the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran if they actually possessed an atomic weapon?

MR. LEWIS: I think that they would become impossibly arrogant. Remember that Ahmadinejad in particular, and his circle, as I said before, are in an apocalyptic mood. They believe in the end of time; it's imminent, and, therefore, the use of a nuclear weapon would not bother them in the least. And they would not, of course, use it in an aerial bombardment. What preserved us from nuclear warfare during the Cold War was what was known as MAD — mutually assured destruction. If they use it, it won't come with a return address on it; it will come from terrorist action. And that, I think, is the most likely way that they would use a nuclear weapon if they get one — no return address.


So folks we are not incorrect when we assume that I_ROT will see a jihadi delivery system against India once there is an Islamic takeover. Recall in Leila-I the best option was to nuke TSP when there is a takeover or regime change. That keeps the fundoos rational. Offcourse need an all azimuthal offense to dissuade the backers.

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Postby asharma » 25 May 2006 20:41

ramana, what makes you distinguish between the current regime and an islamist takeover in IROT?

Also, please do let me point out that even if what Lewis says is true, this is more of a Shia mahdi belief than Sunni

Appreciate your views

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Postby ldev » 25 May 2006 20:42

asharma wrote: What do you think China will do? In order to protect itself from massive Indian retaliation (assuming they take us at our word ie that we will actually do what we say), it will have NO CHOICE but to make a pre-emptive strike......... becoz you see, we have already said that we are goign to nuke them.


OR:
It will make the Chinese think very long and hard about letting their proxy Pakistan do a JDAM on India knowing what the consequences could be.

BECAUSE:
Presumably India is not spending money just on missiles and warheads but on some kind of a warning system via satelites so that India is aware when missile launches have occured from China. So that China knows that India knows that it has launched and India will not sit back like a lame duck waiting for the detonations/impact of a Chinese premptive strike but will launch on warning.

Now do you think that the Chinese will be more responsible for the nukes that they have given their mongrel pet Pakistan?
Last edited by ldev on 25 May 2006 20:51, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby asharma » 25 May 2006 20:48

It will make the Chinese think very long and hard about letting their proxy Pakistan do a JDAM on India knowing what the consequences could be.


Ahh....... so we all place our faith on MAD, in fact let us try to increase the threat levels all around. Yup, sure, very good idea

I find it ironical that jingos are trying to come up with a solution which depends on WORDS (delcare this, declare that) rather than something actually more action-oriented.... yup, yup, it is the Indian government which does all talk talk, not us :D

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Postby ldev » 25 May 2006 20:50

asharma wrote:I find it ironical that jingos are trying to come up with a solution which depends on WORDS (delcare this, declare that) rather than something actually more action-oriented.... yup, yup, it is the Indian government which does all talk talk, not us :D


Suggest you consider whether an exchange of strategic nuclear weapons between China and India is a war fighting doctrine or a deterrence doctrine?

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Postby asharma » 25 May 2006 20:52

incomplete post, deleted
Last edited by asharma on 25 May 2006 20:55, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Harish » 25 May 2006 20:53

It is amusing to hear people on BRF, including some highly regarded senior jingos, parade their frustrations as analysis. Exactly what makes anyone think India is going to lie down and take it up the posterior in the event of a nuclear strike?

Already forgotten Kargil, where after initial lapses, Indian forces destroyed the most battle hardened enemy formations under incredibly severe constraints? Or the netalog who rose to the occasion and showed iron-fisted response and refused to back down until their goals were met? Overall, the political class performed exceptionally well, and ensured the country never faced a loss of face - or territory.

India has time and again shown nerves of steel when threatened or pushed to the corner.

Practically speaking, I dont believe Indian intelligence will fail so monumentally that conducting isotopic identification post-blast becomes the only way to determine the identity of the perpetrators. Far more likely, the smuggling will be detected and stopped, and quiet warnings will go out to all concerned to stop or face the consequences. I dont think the netalog are as inept as many here paint them to be.

Finally, in the event of a blast, Indian civilization is itself threatened, India will probably go wild and beyond all restraint. People are not fools to keep quiet when the country has been nuked. To compare the public response to a small bomb with a city-busting nuke strike is sheer stupidity. India in all probability will act against TSP given the slightest evidence of its involvement.

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Postby asharma » 25 May 2006 20:53

Sure, deterrence. But in a world where there are multiple poles of nuclear weapons, MAD between two-only will not have the deterrence stability of the previous MAD

More critically, the difference is this- the previous MAD depended on only strictly controllable actions, whereas here, a declration of the kind advocated here will give the keys of the MAD-house to a third party.

You want your fondly hoped deterrence effect based on that?

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Postby ldev » 25 May 2006 20:54

asharma wrote:Sure, deterrence. But in a world where there are multiple poles of nuclear weapons, MAD between two-only will not have the deterrence stability of the previous MAD


As between a Chinese sponsored/supplied Pakistan nuke capability on the one hand and India on the other, it can be stable if India communicates its policy in unequivocal terms to the Chinese. The assumption here is that the Pakistani nuclear capability is an extension of China. The Chinese supply of nukes to Pakistan was done precisely to tie India down with them acting in tandem. India will unwise to try and separate these two players who are acting in tandem. It has to be deterrence because the US will be only to happy to sit this one out as its two main rivals for global domination in the second half of this century slug it out and decimate each other.
Last edited by ldev on 25 May 2006 20:58, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Rye » 25 May 2006 20:56

Ahh....... so we all place our faith on MAD, in fact let us try to increase the threat levels all around. Yup, sure, very good idea


MAD works with China -- it does not work with terrorists armed with nukes. So the policy for handling these two cases has to be different.

I find it ironical that jingos are trying to come up with a solution which depends on WORDS (delcare this, declare that) rather than something actually more action-oriented....


How can there be an action-oriented solution short of starting a war? The words are meant to dissuade the enemy from stating explicitly the cost of the their actions. You think Beijing is going to risk getting its industrial cities nuked if India explicitly makes it clear that such will be the cost of their proliferation of nukes to pakistan? If nothing is said by the GoI, the only people it protects are those who are falling on the job -- it does not protect Indian citizens and it does not further Indian national security. It does nothing other than cover the butts of those whose job it is to come up with hard-nosed policies.

yup, yup, it is the Indian government which does all talk talk, not us


Perhaps it slipped your attention that we neither have the power nor the responsibility of ensuring that eventualities such as a WMD attack on Indian soil never occurs. What else are we supposed to do? come up with a "citizen's plan of action to retaliatiate against China"? :roll:

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Postby asharma » 25 May 2006 20:59

More people read this forum than what we are perhaps aware of.... if we do have to spend time to come with solutions, let us try to come up with some alternate ones? Ones with at least some obvious steps analysed?

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Postby ldev » 25 May 2006 21:07

asharma wrote: if we do have to spend time to come with solutions, let us try to come up with some alternate ones? Ones with at least some obvious steps analysed?


Two obvious solutions:

1. Global nuclear disarmament

2. Photon torpedoes from Star Trek

But until such time that either of these two happen, why not stay with a proven solution i.e. deterrence.

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Postby RajGuru » 25 May 2006 21:09

Alok_N wrote:RajGuru wrote:
There needs to be a declared policy by the GoI that if a nuke goes off anywhere in India then there would be a complete annihilation of pakistani territory regardless of the origin of the nuke.


this is still a partial stance ... the next step would be to notify beijing about the same ...


I have to say that there are some missing RA-115 backpacks from Soviet era. A Russian mafia boss sold them to AQ(aka Pakistan). If it gets smuggled in then are we to retaliate against Russia? or China? We cant threaten China whether they are involved or not. That is why I said we have to nuke Pakistan.


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