kgoan wrote:I feel the whole "we're crazy enough to kill ourselves and you" is a con job. And it was exposed as such during Op Parakram.
....Yes generals, mullahs and RAPE's, are all the same lunatics in a sense. But the system they work in is still a pyramid. And its vital to understand that the whole Jihadi scenario works to keep specific birdari groups on the top of the pyramid. The ones who have, in the same General Aziz's evocative phrase, the Jihadis "by the scruff of their neck".
.... That, I think, is what makes the situation now so interesting - whether the current lots grip on the "scruff of their necks" is loosening because of the ABM and Musharraf and the current lots inability to protect them from India.
Lets see how it goes.
I agree that the Paki establishment and alo the Chinis (especially the Chinis) are at some level into "rational" decision making in the game theory /strategy sense and would respond rationally given the set of options available in a particular circumstance, in pursuit of their interests..
Everyone knows that the Chinis are behind power and carving out their hegemony in Asia, trying to project power on the global scene and all that, while for the "official" Pakiland it is somehow to grab Kashmir.. larger consequences be damned , even if they do manage to do that...
The sama, daana, bedh , dand thingy range of options (not necessarily in that order) will work for them (esp Chini.. daan and dand).. maybe pakis (more dand than anything else) .
When it comes to those millenarian bearded wierdos, it gets a little complicated.. It does make sense for the Paki establishment to use 'em critters to project an "irrational" facade (classic game theory stuff.. not let the opponent believe that you are rational and hence make rational choices and hence increase the range of your options).. Trouble is, they cannot be turned off and on like a tap, but are really loose cannons, that have a habit of backfiring badly and even shooting in your own direction..
The larger problem for India and the rest of the world is this... If you compromize mushy and by extension the Paki Army too much and he/they fall (s), who next ? If it is the bearded wierdos, then the opponent becomes distinctly irrational , with totally non acceptable aims and then conflict is the only option available.
The animal called democracy is extinct.. or actually never existing for any length of time in Pakistan.. The onlystable kind (despite BB, Nawaz Sharif and playboy Khan's protestations) that a democratic process would throw up is the ultra rabid rabble rousing mullah types (the paki equivalent of Muqtada al Sadr, or the Iranian Nutters , Hamas , Hizobollah types).. and this scenario is actually far more dangerous than Bearded Wierdos taking over by force.. A scenario where Bearded Wierdos come to power in Pukeland via the democratic process and the resultatnt legal sanction , credibility, legitimacy and acceptance seems to be the natural stable point in the paki social, religious and military scenario.. Any other option like Beards taking over by force would be still considered "illegitimate" in the wider society and subject to challenge..
I know it is common consensus to wish of democracy in Pukeland.. But I think we should be careful on what we wish for.. It could actually come true and hurt us badly..
A bottled up and defanged Mushy (and the Paki army illusions of flying the green flag in Delhi and getting control of kashmir going to dust ) dependant on support and sustance on unkil, with the Paki army directed clearly internally at keeping down the beards and maintaining stability within Pakistan and putting pakistan on a growth trajectory /reforming Paki society is the ideal solution in the medium term.. Democracy is a long term goal (laudable in itself, but not the near term goal given the realpolitik) .