Strategic Implications of India's ABM Test -2

Vijay J
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Postby Vijay J » 08 Dec 2006 01:22

First show us warhead actually exists in Pakistani inventory.

We will show how PADE can hit Brahmos in our next test.

Ultimately Pakistan has to choose how much more of this show and tell related humiliation it wants to sustain.

The choice is entirely theirs.

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Postby svinayak » 08 Dec 2006 01:31

Vijay J wrote:Fantastic, a friend of the Asia Pacific Foundation is trying to make it look like China is unhappy with the India-US news deal. I guess the bylines goes where the FDI tells it to.


It is a fake news. It has to come openly from China official statement. This is a psy ops to show that China is against Indian nuke status when in reality it does not have any say in that matter.

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Postby NRao » 08 Dec 2006 01:33

vsudhir wrote:The chinis are moving to sabotage whatever they can to degrade India's capabilities. Their first target : the J18 agreement.

China blasts Indo-US civilian nuke deal

This mere days after Hu's India visit where he's supposed to have quietly endorsed India's quest to have the NSG change its rules. What changed between then and now? The ABM test is one prime candidate.


I think the Chicoms want this deal - but for themsleves.

IF they can get to hurt US such that they get the deal then they can also try and take over Indian FP too.

I would not worry about them. Besides there are two factions in their country - both equally strong - one very vocal from the old school, the other who visited India more civilized.

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Postby enqyoobOLD » 08 Dec 2006 10:12

Probably part of the Indie-Chinie Bhai-Bhai II: MoleMohiniMooshik thunders: :roll:

West should pls acknowledge Rise of India AND China Onlee!


(ever heard of, say, Margaret Thatcher doing sales pitch for "United Queendon AND Frogistan" , or POTUS Dubya saying: "China should recognise rise of USA AND Cuba"????

Or Chailman Hu saying:

NSG should lecognize lise of China AND India!


Instead Chairman Hu says:

Vely vely vely vely glave consequences of giving unfail dear to dilty litter Indies!!


Quid Pro Quo. Kick-e-Teeth. Stab-ul-Behind.

Then again, Glin-e-Quiet, because what better motivating injection-e-bum could be delivered to the US Congress in Duplicity than "Look! PRC thinks you are being Very Tough On Communism!"

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Postby Vijay J » 08 Dec 2006 22:31

If I am a jarnail seeking to replace Musharraf as the next savory of Pakistan.

Should I tell Americans my plan?

Should I tell Indians my plan?

Should I tell Chinese my plan?

Should I tell the Islamists?

Okay if I do tell them, when should I tell them? Should it be in the beginning? or should it be in the middle? or should it be as a fiat accompli?

Who should I tell first?

Should I tell me wife?

Should I tell my brother? my son? my father? my mullah?

Should I tell Musharraf?

Terrible terrible questions, burden my mind, such malconent, such war mongering?

Will India Agree?

Will America Agree?

Will China Agree?

Will the Islamists Agree?

How do I know unless I ask?

Should I ask? or should I ask someone else to ask? and then see how he is treated?

Terrible terrible questions burden my mind.

What should I do?

or should I just wait for the lamp posts to be used? and the buy shares in Fauji Rope Corporation?

Should I ride out or simply sent out my stalking horse.

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Postby ravikun » 08 Dec 2006 23:02

sry, couldnt resist!! 8)
Should I tell Musharraf?

with the madrasa education they get, i think i will place my bets on this one as yes. :twisted:

P.S: this one is better suited for YMG thread

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Postby Picklu » 08 Dec 2006 23:34

Vijay J wrote:
We will show how PADE can hit Brahmos in our next test.



Do we have the long range detection capability to cover our western border (land and sea) against 'dancer's? If true, that will have even more strategic implication than the current ABM test. However all open source evidance point to radar gap 'as of now'.

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Postby Vijay J » 08 Dec 2006 23:36

Picklu,

No comment but just a question, if we do that, how do you propose we show it?

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Postby Picklu » 09 Dec 2006 06:32

Vijay J wrote:Picklu,

No comment but just a question, if we do that, how do you propose we show it?


Depends on how we do it. But 'show' we have to, otherwise it will not be 'credible'. The PADE is revolutionary becuase it established the 'credibility' in that system by 'showing' the capability. There can not be any 'if we do that', there can not be any talk of 'radar gap' if we really want to break free from the strategic straightjacket.

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Postby kgoan » 13 Dec 2006 04:27

Okay folks, finally they've started to bark a little tentaively:

Heres Halis take. The first part is a lot of Pakee self reassurance that "DRDO doesn't work", mixed with the usual "its the evil Jews", "its the evil Americans" blah, blah followed by this:

Pakistan does not need to enter this worthless banter. Anti Ballistic Missile Defence Systems are irrelevant in the Indo-Pakistan scenario. Unlike in the case of Russia and the United States, which are thousands of miles away from each other, the time of flight from the launching pad in Pakistan to targets in India is very short. It will not be easy for the ABM Radar to pick up the missile at the takeoff stage. Any interception will, therefore, be above Indian territory. The nuclear radiation and blast will affect Indian citizens even when the incoming missile is destroyed before it reaches the target. Moreover, the liquid propellant of the Prithvi-2 engine is corrosive in nature and does not permit long duration storage.

Having served as Naval and Air Attaché in Saudi Arabia in the 1990s, I have witnessed the ineffective performance of patriots against the incoming Iraqi Scud missiles. True the Arrow-2 or PAC-3 are more advanced than earlier versions yet a lot of work is required to develop a fully reliable anti-ballistic missile system.

India would be better off pursuing more fruitful paths of indigenous development rather than planting its logo on other people's achievements and then bragging about it needlessly.


That last sentence is a classic. A wonderful example of the psychology of a thief always suspecting everyone else of also being a thief.

So much for the Pakees "ominous" silence. Turns out its just a reprise of the Northern (F)Light Infantry's saga on Kargil. :rotfl:

Wait awhile. We'll soon hear more of how "Pakeeland is happy to give up its policy on Kashmir" and how "Pakees never claimed Kashmir anyway" from Mush.

From: http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/dec-2006/13/columns5.php
Last edited by kgoan on 13 Dec 2006 04:35, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby hnair » 13 Dec 2006 04:32

Yeah, I saw that Hali crap in TSP thread. Even by Hali's low standards, this one was a let down :) Apparently his handlers are asking for more time.

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Postby AshishN » 13 Dec 2006 04:33

India would be better off pursuing more fruitful paths of indigenous development rather than planting its logo on other people's achievements and then bragging about it needlessly.


Man I dont know too much at all about missiles but this mirchi has gone real deep. The angst! The sermonizing! The indignation! :P

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Postby Gerard » 13 Dec 2006 05:18

There was this balloon slowly inflating with a lot of hot air and flatulence - pakdeaf nicknamed DRDO as "dodo" and this was picked up by Shukla who became an expert in all things military by banging his head on the inside of a T72.
Hali can now authoritatively quote Shukla, rather then the adolescents on pakdef. This dovetailed nicely with the liafa campaign by the foreign arms middle men.

Problem is the ABM test pricked this balloon. Suddenly 'dodo' did something that only US, Russia and Israel (with US help) were able to do.
The 'dodo' moniker can't stick now because ABM is serious stuff. It shows your rocket tech is really top class. A successful missile HTK intercept is stunning.

All the propaganda just got blown away and folk like Hali are in shock. He desperately hopes that DRDO painted a logo on an Arrow because the alternative - is just to awful to contemplate for a pakistani.

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Postby sanjaykumar » 13 Dec 2006 05:46

India would be better off pursuing more fruitful paths of indigenous development

And you sir would be better off pursuing your apparent specialty of djinn power or is it gin power.

Besides India wandering down blind alleys should make Pakistan a little safer so why the solicitousness?

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Postby hnair » 13 Dec 2006 05:52

More than any ABM, it is Hali which gives me the reassurance that India is safe. I mean, he actually got promoted to a Group Capt!! That says something about the paucity of original thinkers in their forces 8)

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Postby gashish » 13 Dec 2006 05:54

India would be better off pursuing more fruitful paths of indigenous development rather than planting its logo on other people's achievements and then bragging about it needlessly.

From: http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/dec-2006/13/columns5.php


...chor ke daadi mein tinka...:rotfl: ....man pukes are unbelievable...

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Postby Arun_S » 13 Dec 2006 07:25

Gerard wrote:Problem is the ABM test pricked this balloon. Suddenly 'dodo' did something that only US, Russia and Israel (with US help) were able to do.
The 'dodo' moniker can't stick now because ABM is serious stuff. It shows your rocket tech is really top class. A successful missile HTK intercept is stunning.


Also noteworthy to know and realize how many failures did USA and Israel suffer before their first HTK? I know that an alarmed US Congress raised this issues when US defense industry consistently claimed progress while yet to physically hit incoming missile even once. It was a very loooooooon...g wait.

And Indian DDM did not even mention this once when Agni-III first test mission failed, or when Indian PAD succeeded.

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Postby Alok_N » 13 Dec 2006 09:14

boss log, a simple request ...

packees have been checkmated ... while it is all nice fun and games to deride packee idiots, it is about time that all attention was focused on pandapokers ... packees eminently deserve to be ignored on serious threads ... lets just relegate them to NSN analysis onlee ... :lol:

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Postby Arun_S » 13 Dec 2006 09:46

Alok ji, very correct.

One country that India forgets to target for friendship and assistance is Mangolia. The Panda-pork has historically had raw nerve ending with what they call barbarians from the north. Exporting some Saudi returned Mulla to peace loving Islamic Mangolia is a very friendly gesture. And also a self defense Brahmos and Prithvi is such a sweet starting point. And of course medical drug distribution center, setting us a steel mill in the coal energy Magolia will also be a good start apart from gas/oil exploration venture.

Vladivostok is a very friendly Russian port for India.

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Postby Vivek K » 13 Dec 2006 10:12

The less said about Indian media the better. They soon to have foreign masters. Failures are the Stepping stones to success.

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Postby shiv » 13 Dec 2006 10:19

Arun_S wrote:
One country that India forgets to target for friendship and assistance is Mangolia.


Apologies to Arun - can't resist this.

IIRC Mangolia was the nation that was responsible for eliminating Zia ul Haq

< ducking for cover > :wink: :)

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Postby Drevin » 13 Dec 2006 10:26

:-? I didnt understand one bit. What is this mangolia got to do with pakistan let alone zia-ul-haq. Its like oil and soapnut powder. Where is peaceful Mangolia and where is the fanatical ex-dictator of Pakistan. Worlds apart. Please enlighten me....... Ah k you pulling Arun's leg cause he likes mangolia :-?

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Postby Alok_N » 13 Dec 2006 10:44

arre bhai, mango-lia .. geddit?

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Postby Drevin » 13 Dec 2006 10:50

ooooooooooooooooo ok .... gawd it. Thank you alok. too much pressure at work man ..... my brain is too stressed out. shiv ur sarcasm is to wacky :) stretches my brain. :) feel like a rubberband.

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Postby Singha » 13 Dec 2006 11:45

pak is the stalking horse sent out by panda to rattle the cage once in a while and see who moves in the forest. they keep their powder dry and "officially" a clean peaceful rep by using these disposable proxies who survive on handouts. US also does it but less crude and vicious manner.

we pay far less attention to panda movements in the undergrowth than the loud monkey in the tree.

what exactly is the pandaplan for BD , with the Govt in turmoil there and a pro-islamist pro-PRC army and intel setup firmly in place ? what role are they playing in the drama ? a myanmar style military junta would suit their needs just fine...you can expect the first shiploads of arms to be loaded and waiting up in bo-hai bay.

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Postby Arun_S » 13 Dec 2006 13:56

shiv wrote:
Arun_S wrote:
One country that India forgets to target for friendship and assistance is Mangolia.


Apologies to Arun - can't resist this.

IIRC Mangolia was the nation that was responsible for eliminating Zia ul Haq

< ducking for cover > :wink: :)
My donkey riding sources tell me that TFTA senior brass has developed serious allergy to Mango (MAN-GO to hell, it reminds them of MAN-RUN down hill at Kargil to save their posteriors), and no one eats, or loves the harami mangoes. In fact the wannabe arabs have switched to showing full allegiance of meat eating muslims and at pain to differentiate from rice eating vegetarian dark Hindu's of India they have picked up Chinese food style: Honey dipped Pig and dog gonads in high demand at Pindi HQ mess. Allah tauba kya wakhat aaa gaya hai.

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Postby ramana » 13 Dec 2006 20:25

I do not agree that TSP is fully checked Alok. There is still the Shine series to be taken care of. So DODO should demonstrate the PAD capability to neutralize a Shine type delivery vehicle. I agree current capabiity agiant the Khatam series and some SRBMs of PRC origin is demonstrated. Once the Shines are taken care of PRC is also checked.

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Postby sanjaykumar » 13 Dec 2006 20:53

Yes PAD can perhaps deal with the char-footi-dari that the pious fire off regularly but what about the panchh-footi-dari, I say.

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Postby ramana » 13 Dec 2006 20:59

DODO should demonstrate, right? 8)

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Postby Vijay J » 13 Dec 2006 21:14

So the viability of Pakistan's last line of defence rests on the Shiv Aroor's media attacks on DRDO? Is this really a sensible posture?

I will never question Pakistan's expertise at painting logos on someone else's achievements but if DRDO only painted the logo then the system will work at least as well as anything else Pakistan might be considering buying from "someone else"?

What is stopping Pakistan from buying someone else's achievement and painting a logo on it now?

So a question to our friend, Captain Hali Sir, how is it that despite all the faith in Allah, the Patriots misperformed over Saudi Arabia while performing so well over the lands of Israel?

What I asked my friend from the Indian military at lunch, I ask the Pakistanis. Can a Pakistan Army equipped with Arms from the self-declared Enemy of Islam - America and a Godless Communist dictatorship defend the interests of Islam?

If someone like me sitting a thousand kilometres away can see this simple fact, why does everyone feel that the people sitting in Jamia Binuria will miss it?

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Postby Vijay J » 13 Dec 2006 21:36

If Pakistan Army wants to rely on a JDAM as its primary real means of deterrance against attack by India.

They have to demonstrate a level of credibility with the Islamists.

They can't demonstrate this credibility if everyone can plainly see that the Pakistani Army is completely reliant on imported weapons from America and China.

Without credibility with the Islamists, the JDAM option falls apart.

Can Gen. Musharraf's people who is so closely identified with Bush's war on Islam generate the necessary credibility with the Islamists?

I don't think they can do it. Their credibility with the Islamists is now shot.

This applies recursively to any other Pakistan Army officer who might be applying for Gen. Musharraf's job.

If there is a mysterious terrorist attack in India, and the Pakistan Army then makes a big show of protecting the terrorists from India yet again, everyone will see this for what it is, a foolish attempt to try and convince the Jihadis into believing that the Pakistan Army is still with them.

Also it would leave options open to India where after the terrorist strike it could also strike covertly inside Pakistan and then claim through its media that the covert strike was successful as a result of the "Indo-Pak Cooperation".

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Postby rocky » 13 Dec 2006 23:18

ramana, I would suggest the use of the word DODO be dropped. It's good once in a while to use reverse psy-ops, but if this term sticks, it's going to be really painfull in the future.

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Postby Prem » 14 Dec 2006 01:19

HAli is Khali.

Well, DODO's DILDO have won the competition . Bakistan ED is on display, Chini chopsticks are no substiture for real beef. Hali Sir, amuse us and come up with something real manly not awrat stuff.

JDAM option is not a real one. The moment JDAM goes off in India, Bakistan will be toast. GP has already specified PAKJABI area for the kind attention of India strategic respone. Bakis are welcome to exercise JDAM option if they are willing to pay with the death of whole Pakjab and rest Bakistan lorded over by Yindoos with due rights granted by the provision of Dhima.

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Postby Vijay J » 14 Dec 2006 02:33

Hello Prem everyone knows that the moment a nuclear bomb goes off in India, Pakistan will cease to be an entity of note but the question is what is a more credible threat?

Is it the missile that Pakistan got from China? or is it the JDAM?

I think now it is neither because Musharraf cannot guarentee that his missile will actually hit the target and Musharraf cannot buy anything to counter the Indian missile without burning his bridges with the Jihadis.

He can have all the conventional weapons he wants, it won't do him one bit of good.

The Americans rely on Pakistanis having an obsession with India. They go up to the Pakistanis and say you do this for us and we will give you that to use against India. Now if there is nothing that America can give which Pakistan will be able to use against India with any effectiveness, then why will they do anything for America?

If the Pakistanis believe DRDO is a DODO then they will believe that America has given India the ABM and what has Pakistan got? a few stupid 1970s outdated F-16s? and a noose around its neck?

Is this what Pakistan gets for all the service in the War on Terror?

Pakistanis know they can't use any of their advanced weapons that they get from America to defeat India because America will not permit them to use the weapons. The point I was trying to make with Captain Hali was that America will not allow very high quality weapons to fall into the hands of an Army that uses Islam as a vehicle for its militarism. The risk of supplying weapons that work to an army like this is too high. The Americans will supply Pakistan with patriots that do not really work, and then they will make sure that the Pakistanis do not find out that these patriots do not work.

Captain Hali should ask his friends in Iran ask Kangurlu and his friends what happened with the Hawks that they were given.

If Captain Hali was in Riyadh in the days of the Kuwait War, he will also know why the patriots launched from Israel were more successful than the ones launched from Prince Sultan airbase.

I don't know if these Pakistanis interacting with the Americans understand what is the difference between the days of the anti-soviet Jihad and the days of the war on Terror. In the days of the anti-soviet Jihad Pakistan was America's friend, today it is only an ally and nothing more. Times have changed and so have the people but Pakistanis are missing this trend.

Most Americans don't even see Pakistan as an ally, the American military sees Pakistan as a liability. Pakistanis probably know that the American civilian leadership doesn't enjoy the same popularity with the military as it once did. Who is to say what American civilians will do to keep the military happy?

These are things people like Captain Hali should think more clearly about.

Yes yes they can call DRDO a dodo but if I was in their shoes I would worry more about what the DOD has in store for them.

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Postby JE Menon » 14 Dec 2006 02:37

>>but if I was in their shoes I would worry more about what the DOD has in store for them

Indeed. :twisted:

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Postby Prem » 14 Dec 2006 03:31

Well, Good probability Dr. Hali already knows this and so does his friends. 60 years of confrontation with India has not earn anything worthwhile for Bakiland .They are put in doghouse an they know it.

Dr. Hali and his childhood buddy has to think India can provide most of the thing Bakistan lack. Come to Mother India like a OBEDIENT child and we can presereve your H&D, boost your economy, gurrantte territorial integrity, help in education and other civilized human endeavors. Manmohan Singh is a decent man and will be willing to listen and act with benevolence. Time is short,dont waste his time.

If Bakis keep insisting on being enemy, we can always use Dr. ISRAR's advise for Kaffirs or do operation JARASANDH. :twisted:

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Postby kgoan » 14 Dec 2006 03:55

>> DRDO/DODO

Folks to repeat what I said to TSJ before, and what Vijay says above is the vital point:

Hali has just told us that the Pakees do in fact believe that the US via Israel just gave us a nuke cover and therefore backstabbed decades of Pakee effort to have a "counter" to India.

That means:

1. They've just accepted that we do have a counter.

2. They blame the US for it.

Of course, the second point is their own fault for being to clever by half in Afghaistan. :twisted:

Now lets see what else they do and what the other repercussions are.

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Postby Sadler » 14 Dec 2006 03:58

Vijay J wrote: Pakistanis know they can't use any of their advanced weapons that they get from America to defeat India because America will not permit them to use the weapons.


Pretty fantastic statement there. Kinda curious. What do you base this upon?


Vijay J wrote: The point I was trying to make with Captain Hali was that America will not allow very high quality weapons to fall into the hands of an Army that uses Islam as a vehicle for its militarism.


The array of weapons that the US is providing to these porkis is fairly "high" quality. And negates the above statement. The US has supplied the porkis with what were then state-of-the-art F-16s. I am guessing that the only reason India did not do an Osirak on the porkis was a healthy respect for those F-16s. Or do you know something that others dont?

Vijay J wrote: The Americans will supply Pakistan with patriots that do not really work, and then they will make sure that the Pakistanis do not find out that these patriots do not work.


What about the TOW AT missiles? What about the AWACS suite? It wont take long for the porkis to discover that these dont work? I apologise, but i dont buy it. I dont think the US will risk selling defective crap, when they all know that the most logical consequence of those weapons sales is a few thousand brown-skinned heathen Indians. Since when did the US give a damn about a bunch of dead hindus??

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Postby Sadler » 14 Dec 2006 04:01

kgoan wrote:>> DRDO/DODO

Folks to repeat what I said to TSJ before, and what Vijay says above is the vital point.......


Hi Vijay, Do you have some kinda inside track on these matters?? Time and again, i find your statements to be bombastic (no offence), but if one assumes that you are on the know, they do not seem that way afterall.

And why is the goat-lovin' Hali given so much credence??


PS. FWIW, my congratulations to Indian scientists on this achievement and best wishes that India puts the testing and ultimate deployment of a credible ABM on a ultra-fast track. May be this project can send back some tech to us which will certainly help, what with mohammad-in-a-jam threatening Israel with annihilation and all.

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Postby Rye » 14 Dec 2006 04:19

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