China Military Watch

JCage
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Postby JCage » 07 Feb 2008 02:39

Surya wrote:how long does anyone expect Gwadar to remain unmolested???

It can be reaced by SUs, refuelled a\c, LACMs.

The supply lines stretch through hostile territory.

The only issue I see is that in the near future it will be the AF which has the most weapons to deal with Gwadar. That could explain the INs problem.

And I am not even talking about uncle yet.


Gwadar is Brahmos fodder.

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Postby Vivek K » 07 Feb 2008 03:23

JC, it is heartening to note that we are well prepared. Thanks for putting so much info out!

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Postby Rahul Shukla » 07 Feb 2008 03:25

Army to raise 2 mountain units to counter Pak, China (Times of India)
NEW DELHI: The Army has launched preparations to raise two new mountain divisions, with around 15,000 soldiers each... tailor-made for swift offensive operations in the mountains of north and North-East India.

The groundwork on the 'organizational structure' and 'equipment profile' of the two new proposed mountain divisions is already under way after the cabinet committee on security recently approved this plan, said sources. The two new mountain divisions, to be raised at a cost of around Rs 650-700 crore each, will have 'integral tactical air mobility assets' in the shape of medium to heavy-lift helicopters.

They are also likely to be equipped with the new ultralight howitzers which the Army plans to induct in the near future. As first reported by TOI , the Army is hunting for 140 ultralight howitzers at a cost of around Rs 2,900 crore in the overall Rs 12,000-crore artillery modernization plan. The approval for the new mountain divisions comes at a time when the Indian security establishment is warily watching the massive upgrade of Chinese military infrastructure along the 4,057-km Line of Actual Control (LAC) in all the three sectors — western (Ladakh), middle (Uttarakhand, Himachal) and eastern (Sikkim, Arunachal).

China has established a robust network of road, rail and air links between its mainland and Tibet over the last few years, which makes it possible for it to rush a couple of army divisions near the border with India within a matter of days. The need to have additional specialised offensive mountain formations has been felt even on the front with Pakistan despite the fact that the 14 Corps, with around 50,000 troops, now guards the Ladakh region after the 1999 Kargil conflict.

"There was a move to establish an offensive corps in the mountains after Kargil. But the 14 Corps has limited offensive capabilities, roughly equivalent to that of any other corps in the mountains," said an officer.

The 1.13-million strong Army does have 10 mountain formations in a total of around 35 divisions. But in terms of being organized and equipped for "dispersed operations" in mountains, with adequate "fire-support elements", only six... (Silchar, Dibrugrah, Bombdila, Rangia, Gangtok and Kalimpong) can be said to be true mountain formations. "The mountain divisions in J&K are more like standard infantry divisions," said another officer.

While the two new mountain divisions will be fully in place only by the middle of the next decade, the government has now finally kickstarted infrastructure development plans along the Indo-Chinese border. These plans include a 608-km road network project along LAC, which will have 27 road links along J&K, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal, as well as the overall 7,603-km Special Accelerated Road Development Programme for the entire North-East.

ramana
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Postby ramana » 07 Feb 2008 03:42

RS. Thanks. Vipul posted the same in Indian Army discussion thread which I hightlighted.


Meanwhile

[url=http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0305-7410%28199606%29146%3C443%3ATPEWDS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-7&size=LARGE&origin=JSTOR-enlargePage]The PLA's Evolving Warfighting Doctrine, Strategy and Tactics, 1985-95: A Chinese Perspective
Nan Li[/url]

and

Google Book - China's Military in transition


and

Google Book- Interpreting China's Military Power

Try to read works by

Georges Tan Eng Bok

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Postby Rahul Shukla » 07 Feb 2008 04:08

ramana wrote:RS. Thanks.

You're welcome.

Is anybody aware of the type/specs of the probable top contenders for these 140 ultralight howitzers?

We should be prepared for some innovative surprises from the Chinese if they ever decide to take on India in the chicken-neck sector. I have a feeling they will go for a three directional attack including thrusts from within nearby Nepalese and Bhutanese territory. China will retreat from Nepalese territory and take Nepal in its fold but will keep Bhutanese territory. But if the entire North East is lost i.e. if the chicken-neck sector is lost, Bhutan will be swallowed by China and cease to exist along with NE India.

We need to have more discussions with Bhutan. They need to be told that the next war with China is also a war for their survival as a nation state and they need to fight/plan alongside. India needs to make plans to steamroll through Bangladesh, Bhutanese and Nepalese territory if needed (bhai-chara be damned) with promises to withdraw post-conflict to pre-war positions during an Indo-China conflict.

Kangla-desh will most definately try to tangle with Indian supply lines because China is going to promise them a share of occupied territory. The next war is going to be China+Pakistan+Bangladesh vs. India alone. A flower delivery to an uninhabited island off Kangla-deshi coast will be required on the very first day to convince them of unschduled/expedited Indian delivered 'Kayamat' waiting for them if their military gets out of their barracks and gets in the way.

Remember the saying, "Everybody wants to go to heaven, but nobody wants to die." When India blows up a Bangladeshi island to signal its intent to annhilate anybody who stands in the way, better sense will prevail on Pukis and Kangladeshi RAPE's and jihadi's, in addition to Nepalis and Lizard.

It is going to get nasty, and if it is not that nasty, India should make it nasty. We need a crazy SOB in power: IG^10.

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 04:32

JCage wrote:It is upto to you provide the data to show that those airfields can support 272 Flankers. Currently the Scramble site and other sites clearly show they cant. Please educate yourself about the basics of what even ONE Flanker squadron requires before posting arguementative drivel.


Wrong.

No- you tell us what all they have crossed! You cant, because YOU dont know. Nobody does. It just suits your silly arguement to fix an arbitrary date and manufacture evidence accordingly. But that is NOT good enough.


No data. Discarded.

Your silliness knows no bounds. Sunil has already posted an article showing that there MAX production rate is at 17 a year. Your lack of knowledge is also evident from the fact that you dont even realise that the newer Flankers are to use Chinese engines which would entail even longer development, manufacturing timelines not to mention operationalization.


Some data but wrong again.

http://www.ir.irkut.com/_data/pages/000 ... r_2006.pdf

Yet you persist with your make believe claims. By 2011, India aims to field another 13+15+15+16+40 Flankers of its own- actual HAL production numbers. But you havent even considered those, or their capabilities vs the PLAAFs older Flankers. Why would you, since you debate using manufactured claims!


When I do the ratio do I include projected Flankers for PRC? No. I did the ratios based on current numbers for both IAF and PRC. So nothing manufactured. If you want to do ratio based on 2010 projected numbers, be my guest. It is you who seem to be desperate to manufacture things.

A-5 radius is 400 km at full load (2000kg). What kind of payload degradation do you see in Tibet?


Are you even aware of the operating height at which that payload is achieved? Please investigate further- I would have provided the data, but your silly arguementative behaviour evokes no reason for me to do your work for you.


What happened? You don't have data to back up your claim. You said Q-5 is not usable in Tibet. Why don't you provide data to back it up pretty boy?

How many escorts can IAF provide vs PRC?

PRC Flankers 272+J-10 70 = 344
IAF Flankers 50 + Mig 29 50 + Mirage 2000 50 = 150
Ratio of modern fighters PRC/ IAF > 2


Once again, you blithely assume that the entire PLAAF can be shifted lock stock and barrel vs the IAF. Were things were that simple! You are yet to prove that even a fraction of that number can be staged from the area- kindly look into the other thread to understand the effort necessary to make airfields transferrable for multi-ops! Second, you demonstrate your ignorance again by assuming that huge escorts have to be provided- all that is needed is to hold off a PLAAF force while the strikers attack, and there is no evidence that PLAAF even has a credible night attack capability! Whereas the IAF will attack at night.


It is totally clear you basing your analysis on just assumptions. What makes you think it cannot? Hold off PLAAF force while stikers attack? And how do you hold off the force by putting ropes is it? Wouldn't you send fighters to "hold off"? And how do you assume that IAF will achieve air superiority over Tibet with the numbers as above?

No don't list the satellite airfields in India because I know where they are. Just list PRC air fields which cannot handle fighters!


The Scramble list is available in the thread. Go ahead and mark them yourself.


No I am not going to mark it for you. If you want to back your argument provide data. Otherwise here is my response - discarded.

Not related. Fusion test of 1998 was actually a flop.


Of course its related. It proves your great source is prone to errors. And about 1998, FAS et al did muck raking about all tests. Please educate yourself about who runs FAS and what FAS stands for.


Wrong again. Goes to show how much you know! :lol:

Please do us all a favour and research some basics before posting. If you had any evidence that the PRC had actually made a huge investment in logistics and air to air refuelling (bar the handful of H-6s they have now) to move the entire Flanker fleet vs India *if need* be, your comments could be taken seriously.


I think you are the one who is in need to undertaking basic research. You haven't provided single data so far.

India doesnt dream of invading Bangladesh and Bangladeshs military strength is pitiful. PRC otoh has built up exactly to overwhelm ROC and it will safeguard enough units so as to retain a balance vs the ROC. It will not wipe away decades of work over nothing.


So you believe that ROC will attack PRC if PRC moves its entire air force for fight with India. Well that explains why you think India does not have to fight the entire PRC air force....moron :!:

Hardly exactly. The line was reopened because they needed a counterpoint to strong defences. And FYI all bombers ARE dead ducks unless air superiority is achieved. Please read up about how and when bombers have been used till date.


Big "unless". See you suddenly realised they are useful afterall.

Your nonsense knows no limits- try honesty for a change, it will be refreshing. I said your claims of 400 Flankers are an utter exaggeration, and so they were. You should be ashamed of posting such tosh, but you obviously lack the moral fiber to even admit your mistake. Your Sinodefence site posts maximal figures AND even there the numbers dont add upto 400 but 250 odd- in case you have issues with the English language, odd means a rounded figure approaching the number mentioned!! I talk about serviceability for the PRC because I know they fudge and hide figures - even so I even gave them the benefit of the doubt and assumed a high 70% figure overall.


What is your projection of Flanker fleet in PRC by 2010? Just keep your empty rants to yourself and provide the data. Where did you pull out 250 number from? JCage confusing himself. You seem to have an IQ of a bird.

Learn how to read into context. You are the one who was scaremongering about India getting bombed- all of North India you said! Who cares if the PRC has better SAM coverage to protect Beijing as long as we dont go there.


And what limits PRC from deploying some of those systems to provide coverage for force in Tibet? Just your imagination.

And what does an Indian division bring to the fight vs a PRC unit?


What?

Ah, so the US militarys filibustering to get more funds is now grounds for fear. Grow up, will you.


So sinodefence is kiddy site. FAS is laughable. US military report to congress is fillibustering. PRC military doesn't even know basics of fight. IAF Air Marshal asking for 60 squadrons is just asking AF asking for things. But JCage must make the decision. You in one post discarded sources from sinodefence, globalsecurity or fas, IAF, US military. This got to be new record. Can it can get any more ridiculous?

It is the job of the AF to ask for more. It is the job of adults to understand what is being said and why, and not scaremonger.


Yeah of course you know more than IAF. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Your self gratification amuses me, but your learning comprehension leaves a lot to be desired. In plain English, concern is good- useless panic and hyperbole (the kind you have indulged in) is worthy of contempt.


After your comments above I don't think your posts deserve any more response.

And kindly stop with the fevered one line replies- not only are they rude, your referring to the chinese as chinks and chinkland whatever is downright racist.


Oh yeah...did it hurt you when I called them Chinks? :D :D :D
Last edited by alokgupt on 07 Feb 2008 05:28, edited 1 time in total.

sunilUpa
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Postby sunilUpa » 07 Feb 2008 04:32

Rahul Shukla wrote:
ramana wrote:RS. Thanks.

You're welcome.

Is anybody aware of the type/specs of the probable top contenders for these 140 ultralight howitzers?



RFP was sent to Singapore and BAE, The products on offer are,

Pegasus from Singapore

and

M777A2 from BAE

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 04:34

JCage wrote:Gwadar is Brahmos fodder.


One Brahmos and it done. That's all. :D :D :D

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Postby mdhoat » 07 Feb 2008 04:34

Kangla-desh will most definately try to tangle with Indian supply lines because China is going to promise them a share of occupied territory. The next war is going to be China+Pakistan+Bangladesh vs. India alone. A flower delivery to an uninhabited island off Kangla-deshi coast will be required on the very first day to convince them of unschduled/expedited Indian delivered 'Kayamat' waiting for them if their military gets out of their barracks and gets in the way.


That like killing a bee with a howitzers. I don't think we need to send a flower to send the right message to Bangladesh. It should be made very clear to all concerned nations about the seriousness of India at the very forthright of any indication of hostilities from china.

If all the goodie goodie parley don't work, I believe two or three air strikes at the right time and right place will send the right message to all concerned, if anybody don't seem to toe the line.

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 04:35

Rahul Shukla wrote:Army to raise 2 mountain units to counter Pak, China (Times of India)
NEW DELHI: The Army has launched preparations to raise two new mountain divisions, with around 15,000 soldiers each... tailor-made for swift offensive operations in the mountains of north and North-East India.

The groundwork on the 'organizational structure' and 'equipment profile' of the two new proposed mountain divisions is already under way after the cabinet committee on security recently approved this plan, said sources. The two new mountain divisions, to be raised at a cost of around Rs 650-700 crore each, will have 'integral tactical air mobility assets' in the shape of medium to heavy-lift helicopters.

They are also likely to be equipped with the new ultralight howitzers which the Army plans to induct in the near future. As first reported by TOI , the Army is hunting for 140 ultralight howitzers at a cost of around Rs 2,900 crore in the overall Rs 12,000-crore artillery modernization plan. The approval for the new mountain divisions comes at a time when the Indian security establishment is warily watching the massive upgrade of Chinese military infrastructure along the 4,057-km Line of Actual Control (LAC) in all the three sectors — western (Ladakh), middle (Uttarakhand, Himachal) and eastern (Sikkim, Arunachal).

China has established a robust network of road, rail and air links between its mainland and Tibet over the last few years, which makes it possible for it to rush a couple of army divisions near the border with India within a matter of days. The need to have additional specialised offensive mountain formations has been felt even on the front with Pakistan despite the fact that the 14 Corps, with around 50,000 troops, now guards the Ladakh region after the 1999 Kargil conflict.

"There was a move to establish an offensive corps in the mountains after Kargil. But the 14 Corps has limited offensive capabilities, roughly equivalent to that of any other corps in the mountains," said an officer.

The 1.13-million strong Army does have 10 mountain formations in a total of around 35 divisions. But in terms of being organized and equipped for "dispersed operations" in mountains, with adequate "fire-support elements", only six... (Silchar, Dibrugrah, Bombdila, Rangia, Gangtok and Kalimpong) can be said to be true mountain formations. "The mountain divisions in J&K are more like standard infantry divisions," said another officer.

While the two new mountain divisions will be fully in place only by the middle of the next decade, the government has now finally kickstarted infrastructure development plans along the Indo-Chinese border. These plans include a 608-km road network project along LAC, which will have 27 road links along J&K, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal, as well as the overall 7,603-km Special Accelerated Road Development Programme for the entire North-East.


Wow...you made my day! JCage must be disappointed. :D

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Postby sunilUpa » 07 Feb 2008 04:37



Alok, what has Irkut's figures have anything to do with PRC's Flankers? Irkut doesn't manufacture any for PRC except may be trainers! Majoruty comes from KNAPO
And 17/year figure is for J-11, which are manufactured by Shenyang!
Last edited by sunilUpa on 07 Feb 2008 04:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 04:45

Vivek K wrote:
alokgupt wrote:Kargil instead was fought when summer was around. The reason BJP did not open another front in Rajasthan. Btw remind me where was Mushy when GOI intercepted his satellite phone call?

Alok, you haven't answered Phillips question as to why the Chinese did not help Pakis during Kargil. It was summer, so why did the Chinese hold back? (You have said that India prefers to fight in winters). This is not an attempt to flame or to criticize but to understand your point better.


Well I thought I did. But let me clarify again.

China would have intervened if India had started a full scale war during Kargil. But a limited offensive limited to Kargil sector...why will China get involved? There weren't any huge gains or losses.

Well there is another factor which I was hoping folks who are taking other side of the argument will bring forward - America. US govt doesn't like when world security decisions gets made without including America. They are the counter balance to China.

But I will much rather not leave the fate of India in hands of China or America. We are one sixth of the world. We should be able to defend ourselves.

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Postby ranganathan » 07 Feb 2008 04:54

alokgupt wrote:
How many engine does Mig 19 use? How many engines does Q-5/ A-5 use? It isn't my ignorance. It is your making claims and not wanting to provide anything to back it up. Stop you empty rants.


Both have 2 engines and A-5 is a Mig-19 derivative that PAf instantly regretted buying. A-5 is crap cannon fodder basically.


alokgupt wrote:Again go check Q-5 specs. You still confusing it with Mig 19.


It is based on Mig-19. Stop making a fool of yourself.

How many escorts can IAF provide vs PRC?


alokgupt wrote:
No I am not going to mark it for you. If you want to back your argument provide data. Otherwise here is my response - discarded.


So basically you have no idea but would like us to believe your verbal diarrhea.


alokgupt wrote:Wrong again. Goes to show how much you know! :lol:


Prove it.


alokgupt wrote:
Ah, so the US militarys filibustering to get more funds is now grounds for fear. Grow up, will you.


So sinodefence is kiddy site. FAS is laughable. US military report to congress is fillibustering. PRC military doesn't even know basics of fight. IAF Air Marshal asking for 60 squadrons is just asking AF asking for things. But JCage must make the decision. You in one post discarded sources from sinodefence, globalsecurity or fas, IAF, US military. This got to be new record. Can it can get any more ridiculous?



FAS = Federation of American scientists= Propagandu.

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 04:55

hnair wrote:Who me? Yes, I do. Not just in Tibet. The Three Gorge evacuation, the recent snow storms, the SARS episodes, the food riots in the countryside, the toxic rape of environment for helping Walmart keep prices down etc.

But right now, they are all silent insurgents, a far more potent threat than any RDX vested abdul.


I hear you. There is potential. But who will bell the cat.

Maos and Naxals in India is a bigger project and though China figures in the scheme of things, there might be other murkier players too.


Red menance is linked to only surviving communist/ maoist nation in the world. Of course Porkis (JCage - here I go again...racist remarks :lol: ) have a hand to play but Porkis are just a proxy for Chinks (and again :lol: ).

Gwadar will stay out of action, one way or the other. Check out what happened at sea during the kargil war. Pak elite knows that such an escalation will not be pleasant. Particularly with the fast fading Kidwai line and fun with Cold Starts.


Any Chinese forces hosted any place will not stay out of action may it be Gwadar or anything else. That is till the time Porkis and Chinks decide it to attack together.

In fact to influence their people, I feel we need more NKKs (NathuLa Kandle Kisser types) and less WKKs. What we seem to have right now are a lot of Delhi based leftist WKKs, who are influenced by the chinese regime's propaganda. We need a more neutral bunch of Indians who would like to make contact with their citizens.


Well we aren't playing high and mighty. We have opened all trade routes to India. When you apply for BSNL router guess which router are you provided - Huawei.

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 04:59

Tibet air fields based on http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-PLA-AFBs.html. Lhasa Gonggar doesn't show up so but it is just next to Shigatse AB.

Image
Last edited by alokgupt on 07 Feb 2008 05:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby sunilUpa » 07 Feb 2008 05:01

OH BTW, from where are you getting the figure of 50 Flankers for IAF (in 2010)? Irkeut delivered 40 by July 2007 and at the same time 2 HAL built MKI's were under flight test!. Even HAL can't be so incompetent that they produce 10 MKI's in 6 years!

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 05:04

sunilUpa wrote:OH BTW, from where are you getting the figure of 50 Flankers for IAF (in 2010)? Irkeut delivered 40 by July 2007 and at the same time 2 HAL built MKI's were under flight test!. Even HAL can't be so incompetent that they produce 10 MKI's in 6 years!


http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Units/Fleet.html

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 05:12

ranganathan wrote:Both have 2 engines and A-5 is a Mig-19 derivative that PAf instantly regretted buying. A-5 is crap cannon fodder basically.


You are right on this.

So basically you have no idea but would like us to believe your verbal diarrhea.


Watch your language (someone other than ranga). You aren't arguing with your wife that you can say anything. You are on a forum.

How many escorts can IAF provide vs PRC?
alokgupt wrote:Wrong again. Goes to show how much you know! :lol:
Prove it.


Well you can prove it as well. It is your claim. So why don't you help provide the data.

alokgupt wrote:
Ah, so the US militarys filibustering to get more funds is now grounds for fear. Grow up, will you.


So sinodefence is kiddy site. FAS is laughable. US military report to congress is fillibustering. PRC military doesn't even know basics of fight. IAF Air Marshal asking for 60 squadrons is just asking AF asking for things. But JCage must make the decision. You in one post discarded sources from sinodefence, globalsecurity or fas, IAF, US military. This got to be new record. Can it can get any more ridiculous?


FAS = Federation of American scientists= Propagandu.


And JCage is all fully truthful and rationale. I was amussed by his getting excited when I called Chinks Chinks! :lol:

What about US military report to Congress? What about sinodefence? What about IAF Air Marshal?
Last edited by alokgupt on 07 Feb 2008 05:20, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby sunilUpa » 07 Feb 2008 05:12

alokgupt wrote:
sunilUpa wrote:OH BTW, from where are you getting the figure of 50 Flankers for IAF (in 2010)? Irkeut delivered 40 by July 2007 and at the same time 2 HAL built MKI's were under flight test!. Even HAL can't be so incompetent that they produce 10 MKI's in 6 years!


http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Units/Fleet.html


:!: :!: :?: It says 48, last updated April 2007! So it will be only 50 till 2010?

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 05:17

sunilUpa wrote:
alokgupt wrote:
sunilUpa wrote:OH BTW, from where are you getting the figure of 50 Flankers for IAF (in 2010)? Irkeut delivered 40 by July 2007 and at the same time 2 HAL built MKI's were under flight test!. Even HAL can't be so incompetent that they produce 10 MKI's in 6 years!


http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Units/Fleet.html


:!: :!: :?: It says 48, last updated April 2007! So it will be only 50 till 2010?


Nope I didn't say that it will 48 till 2010. Since JCage kept talking about some 250 number (I still don't know where he got 250 number from) I think you are confusing my post. Here are the numbers that I did:

Now
PRC Flankers 272+J-10 70 = 344
IAF Flankers 50 + Mig 29 50 + Mirage 2000 50 = 150
Ratio of modern fighters PRC/ IAF > 2

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Postby sunilUpa » 07 Feb 2008 05:21

alokgupt wrote:
Nope I didn't say that it will 48 till 2010. Since JCage kept talking about some 250 number (I still don't know where he got 250 number from) I think you are confusing my post. Here are the numbers that I did:

Now
PRC Flankers 272+J-10 70 = 344
IAF Flankers 50 + Mig 29 50 + Mirage 2000 50 = 150
Ratio of modern fighters PRC/ IAF > 2


Oh...you are talking about the status as of today? I was under the impression that we were debating with 2010 as reference year. I got confused. My bad!

Any way here is titbit regarding replacement MKI's for original 30K's.

Irkut Corporation, the Russian aerospace producer, released FY06 IAS results yesterday (22 May). Company revenues increased 17% YoY to $832mn. This was lower than our expectation of $1,059mn as the company delivered only 12 of 18 replacement Su-30 MKI aircraft to India (the delivery date for the six additional planes was shifted to 2007 at the customer’s request), and postponed production of the remaining six aircraft. As a result, Irkut did not receive the 18 used aircraft from India it expected under the replacement contract. Another large source of revenue was received from the delivery of 15 semi-knocked-down kits (compared to eight kits in 2005).


So in 2006, Irkut delivered 12 replacement MKI's and 15 SKDs. Irkut had delivered 40 in July 2004!. So that is a minimum of 52 MKI's manufactured by Irkut delivered!. + HAL manufacture. :)

source
Last edited by sunilUpa on 07 Feb 2008 05:27, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 05:23

sunilUpa wrote:


Alok, what has Irkut's figures have anything to do with PRC's Flankers? Irkut doesn't manufacture any for PRC except may be trainers! Majoruty comes from KNAPO
And 17/year figure is for J-11, which are manufactured by Shenyang!


Irkut tells me Su 30 MKI figures for IAF. By looking at financial data you can determine that Irkut will on an average provide 25 fighters a year between Apr 2006 and 2009.

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 05:35

sunilUpa wrote:Any way here is titbit regarding replacement MKI's for original 30K's.

Irkut Corporation, the Russian aerospace producer, released FY06 IAS results yesterday (22 May). Company revenues increased 17% YoY to $832mn. This was lower than our expectation of $1,059mn as the company delivered only 12 of 18 replacement Su-30 MKI aircraft to India (the delivery date for the six additional planes was shifted to 2007 at the customer’s request), and postponed production of the remaining six aircraft. As a result, Irkut did not receive the 18 used aircraft from India it expected under the replacement contract. Another large source of revenue was received from the delivery of 15 semi-knocked-down kits (compared to eight kits in 2005).


So in 2006, Irkut delivered 12 replacement MKI's and 15 SKDs. Irkut had delivered 40 in July 2004!. So that is a minimum of 52 MKI's manufactured by Irkut delivered!. + HAL manufacture. :)

source


Great info. So we should have 40+12+15 = 67 (end of 2007 hopefully). Even more by end 2008. But what worries me that going by past history China has inducted fighters (and all other equipment) at much faster pace than India. So if we have an imbalance now, it will get worse over time.

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Postby hnair » 07 Feb 2008 05:45

alokgupt wrote:I hear you. There is potential. But who will bell the cat.

Because you have a pesky cat and own a bell, you dont need to bell the cat.

Well we aren't playing high and mighty. We have opened all trade routes to India. When you apply for BSNL router guess which router are you provided - Huawei.


I trawl the web for pictures of Meera Jasmin and I am sincerely happy that PLA subsidizes my efforts by providing the darn router. :roll: So is, I am sure, MK Narayanan and the rest of NSC.

This is where your utility is over. shari appol 8)

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 05:59

alokgupt wrote:
Rahul Shukla wrote:The Army has launched preparations to raise two new mountain divisions, with around 15,000 soldiers each... tailor-made for swift offensive operations in the mountains of north and North-East India.

The need to have additional specialised offensive mountain formations has been felt even on the front with Pakistan despite the fact that the 14 Corps, with around 50,000 troops, now guards the Ladakh region after the 1999 Kargil conflict.

"There was a move to establish an offensive corps in the mountains after Kargil. But the 14 Corps has limited offensive capabilities, roughly equivalent to that of any other corps in the mountains," said an officer.

These plans include a 608-km road network project along LAC, which will have 27 road links along J&K, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal, as well as the overall 7,603-km Special Accelerated Road Development Programme for the entire North-East.


When there was a talk about Central command becoming purely logistical entity - it didn't sound right. Now we know better. So central command (whatever else it is named):

6th Mountain Division Bareilly
4th Infantry Division Allahabad
23rd Artillery BDE Mathura
Two New (Air borne) Divisions

And with:

3rd Infantry Division Leh
U/I Artillery BDE Leh

We will have five divisions watching frontier with China along Uttaranchal, Himachal, and Ladakh. We are still at least two division short along the above border but me thinks these will come with time as well.

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Postby Surya » 07 Feb 2008 06:08

So alok - u have not responded on Gwadar.

Essentially gwadar like Karachi is going to get hammered.

The chinese will struggle to protect it.

That is if uncle even allows them there!!

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 06:36

Surya wrote:So alok - u have not responded on Gwadar.

Essentially gwadar like Karachi is going to get hammered.

The chinese will struggle to protect it.

That is if uncle even allows them there!!


Well let me try to understand this better. One possible scenario is that as soon as China attacks from Tibet, Porkis just send all their troops to the border with India claiming some threat from India. They also place all assets (including naval i.e. submarines and P3C) on alert and execute surveillance missions in coordination (not openly) with Chinese. They will also provide Chinese submarines bases (logistical) in Gwadar (since China will attack India not the other way round they can plan ahead).

Porki army deployment will tie down Southern, South Western, most of Western and Northern command assets. Also we will have Erieye monitoring India air space and P3C monitoring Arabian Sea.

In this scenario Porkis haven't directly attacked yet. They are just using threat of attack to tie down forces. So India cannot attack Gwadar directly because in case we do walla we have fight full scale war on two fronts. The calculation that we need to worry about before we attack Gwadar is:

1) Porki air force + Chink air force
2) Porki army + Chink army
3) Porki navy + Chink navy
4) Porki missiles + Chink missiles

So attacking Gwadar doesn't sound all that promising when we are fighting a war with Chinkis. What we do in a war with just Porkis doesn't matter because we will win anyway.

Alternatively Porkis can find another excuse to start the fight. In which case our air assets (Flankers) will be too busy attack Gwadar. Instead it will be our naval ships which will have to execute the mission. Gwadar will be toast eventually but it got to be the top priority for IN. Gwadar will tie down Indian naval assets from fighting Chinese.

Gwadar will be attacked (the few sheds we demolish can be rebuilt) eventually in either scenario. But it would have served its purpose.

As far as Uncle goes, Porkis are no longer in their control. Chinkland gave Porkis M-11, Shadi 2, islamic bomb, barber, and much more. Porkis are in business of trading western technology for missile technology with Chinkis. How do you think Porkis fund their Agostas (they are looking for 3 new western submarines) and Erieye? It is basically a cover so that Chinkis get their hands on western technology! So when it comes to Chinkland, Porkis don't listen to America.

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Postby Surya » 07 Feb 2008 06:56

ok so u r making some assumptions here

That the Chinese will use Gwadar as a base and we cannot attack because the pukis will open a second front. We have planned for it and it will be a holding action. Secondly pukes will have to think about the red lines too.

On the other hand any targets from a country at war in that base will be targets.

Do not assume we will not go after them. We are based on your scenario fighting for our life.





Lastly the Americans look the other way in a lot of areas. But not to any other navy getting access to the warm waters of the Gulf. They blunted the Russian attempts and are conveniently straddling Afgha and pak right now. The chinese are hoping that the Americans will tire and go away. Not going to happen till the oil runs out or something else powers their economy

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 07:12

Raymond wrote:1.In the defensive scenario we don’t have to have air superiority over entire Tibet/south China only locally.The IAF bases are located closer to the border than the Chinese ones.Okay we don’t have the exact location of newly constructed Chinese strips but I think its fair to assume that they are not that close to the border as ours.


I have tried mapping the known Chinese air fields. At least along Arunachal and Sikkim Chinese do have airfields close to the AP border.

There is no use matching numbers because we cannot match them platform by platform.But the key word here is qualitative edge which at the present moment is ours in most cases.


Here is my formula for knowing if we have enough: Chink air force + Porki air force / 2 + technological superiority = may be enough

Couple that with the advantage that our aircraft will operate right inside our AD network.And that is another major advantage.The CAS aircraft will also operate in this environment.


This can change rather quickly. I think before Chinese start the war they will establish some SAM cover. The day we see Chinese putting together SAM cover in Tibet we know attack is imminent. But by then it will be too late to issue tender for fighter induction.

2.Very important role is the second one also.For this strikers are needed to be sent out on areas we don’t have air superiority.This is a bit difficult .The points we have to use to our advantage is very good deep penetration aircrafts at our disposal(and considerable numbers) matched with long range escort platforms.Loss of some aircraft in this case is to be expected but for temporary in and out raids there is a fair chance of succeeding for enemy infrastructure at tactical command control level.Using standoff weapons is also warranted.


JCage (even though I hate to admit any of his points) had a good point here. He talked about Chinks lacking night vision capability. So we can exploit this to our advantage. Another thing to watch out for in Chinese acquisitions.

In case of any coordinated Chinese offensive invariably the first target of their AF will be to neutralize ours regional ABs.To tide over that assault is crucial to our whole defense.For that long range EW radars , a robust AD network plus having ample interceptors as well as AWACs always ready are essential.I think that the mountains can be a good barrier to ALCMs.


Exactly. This time attack will be using ALCMs. But before they launch ALCMs they will target the radars.

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Postby rohitvats » 07 Feb 2008 08:57

When there was a talk about Central command becoming purely logistical entity - it didn't sound right. Now we know better. So central command (whatever else it is named):

6th Mountain Division Bareilly
4th Infantry Division Allahabad
23rd Artillery BDE Mathura
Two New (Air borne) Divisions

And with:

3rd Infantry Division Leh
U/I Artillery BDE Leh

We will have five divisions watching frontier with China along Uttaranchal, Himachal, and Ladakh. We are still at least two division short along the above border but me thinks these will come with time as well


Alok, it is advisable to do your home work before you comment. Central Command is a holding formation with most of its troops earmarked for operations outside its theatre. Also, 6th Mountain Divison is an Army HQ reserve. Yes, it is triple tasked for operations against Pakistan and China (Ladakh or Uttaranchal). And there is a dedicated independent Infantry brigade for operations along uttaranchal border. 4th divison is the running mate of 31st Armored Div as part of I Strike Corp. yes, 4th might be re oriented in time of conflict with China but so can 39 mountain divison. The artillery brigades mentioned are Corp level brigades ans all Corps have them.
And where does it say that the two new mountain divisons are Airborne or Air Assault for that matter of fact. the two are different concepts. Can you imagine the cost of raising Air Assault divison? Just check US Air Assault divison ORBAT and see the cost involved even if we were to go for fraction of it. Oh! and btw, the report says one of them is for NE. Please think through before you post/comment.

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 09:30

rohitvats wrote:Central Command is a holding formation with most of its troops earmarked for operations outside its theatre. Also, 6th Mountain Divison is an Army HQ reserve.


Well then which division covers Uttranchal and Himachal? I think this area falls under Central Command.

Yes, it is triple tasked for operations against Pakistan and China (Ladakh or Uttaranchal).


In reality you will deploy something against China even when you are fighting just against Pakistan. So the two divisions at Bareilly and Allahabad will be the ones doing it.

And there is a dedicated independent Infantry brigade for operations along uttaranchal border.


Which bridage is this?
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... entcom.htm

4th divison is the running mate of 31st Armored Div as part of I Strike Corp. yes, 4th might be re oriented in time of conflict with China but so can 39 mountain divison. The artillery brigades mentioned are Corp level brigades ans all Corps have them.


Didn't we form South Western Command which has assets from Central Command? The armoured command is most likely gone with South Western Command. Me believes Central Command will now become totally mountain strike command.

And where does it say that the two new mountain divisons are Airborne or Air Assault for that matter of fact. the two are different concepts. Can you imagine the cost of raising Air Assault divison? Just check US Air Assault divison ORBAT and see the cost involved even if we were to go for fraction of it.


The two new mountain divisions, to be raised at a cost of around Rs 650-700 crore each, will have 'integral tactical air mobility assets' in the shape of medium to heavy-lift helicopters.

Oh! and btw, the report says one of them is for NE. Please think through before you post/comment.


Where did it say "one of them is for NE"?

The Army has launched preparations to raise two new mountain divisions, with around 15,000 soldiers each... tailor-made for swift offensive operations in the mountains of north and North-East India.

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Postby rohitvats » 07 Feb 2008 09:50

The fact that you arrived at ORBAT from global security explains the holes in your understanding of Indian ORBAT. Indian ORBATs generally are not discussed on BR,IMHO. But I'll make this last post on the topic.

So, the (I) Infantry Bde is not on Global Security page means it's not there? Well, it is very much there. The Global Security data is full of errors, so don't rely on that. As of now, apart from North East and 3rd Div in Leh there is no dedicated formation for defence of Ladakh, Uttaranchal and Himanchal. There must be plans to move formations and re orient formations during hostilities but you'll not see a deicated Div level formation from where 3rd Div AOR end and the (I) infantry Bde AOR in Uttaranchal. 14 Corp will most likely take care of Ladakh Sector and new formation will sure have to be moved in. That's why there are plans to make a tunnel at the base of Rohtang Pass in Kullu Manali to make it available through out the year. 6th Div, as I said earlier is AHQ reserve which will take care of Uttaracnhal border during any shooting match with Chinese.

In reality you will deploy something against China even when you are fighting just against Pakistan. So the two divisions at Bareilly and Allahabad will be the ones doing it
.
The time period movement cannot happen along the Chinese front. And the formations. The formations mentioned will be busy fighting the Pakis.

Didn't we form South Western Command which has assets from Central Command? The armoured command is most likely gone with South Western Command. Me believes Central Command will now become totally mountain strike command
.

When you say gone, what is that you mean? relocated? or simply change of administrative structure? If 31st Armored has "gone", so will 4th Div. As they fight together as part of 1st Strike Corp

The two new mountain divisions, to be raised at a cost of around Rs 650-700 crore each, will have 'integral tactical air mobility assets' in the shape of medium to heavy-lift helicopters.

So, integral tactical air mobility assets make them Airborne and Air Assault. Have you heard of the word "Airmobile"? We frankly do not know what is the philosophy behind this new raising apart from the fact they will be able to "maneouvre" using these assets in the mountains. and hence the ultra light howitzers. IMHO, these formations will be Air Assault capable but the extent will depend upon number of these integral air assets.

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Postby Rahul Shukla » 07 Feb 2008 09:59

alokgupt wrote:Watch your language... You aren't arguing with your wife that you can say anything. You are on a forum.


:shock:

Oh really? Please allow me to quote some shiny gems from your posts showcasing your excellent open-forum discussion skills. Here they are...

alokgupt wrote:...moron

alokgupt wrote:…keep your empty rants to yourself…

alokgupt wrote:Where did you pull out 250 number from?

alokgupt wrote:You seem to have an IQ of a bird.

alokgupt wrote:I don't think your posts deserve any more response.

:roll: :roll:

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 10:16

rohitvats wrote:The fact that you arrived at ORBAT from global security explains the holes in your understanding of Indian ORBAT. Indian ORBATs generally are not discussed on BR,IMHO. But I'll make this last post on the topic.


But what will that extra 4 th division do? The forces are more than matched in south western command:

    24th RAPID Bikaner 33rd Infantry Division Bhawalpur
    54th Infantry Division Hissar 14th Infantry Division Multan
    33rd Armored Division Hissar 1st Armored Division Multan
    31st Armored Division Mathura
    U/I BDE Multan
    16th Infantry Division Gobindgarh 40th Infantry Division Okara
    6th Ind Armored BDE Bhatinda U/I Armored BDE Multan

So, the (I) Infantry Bde is not on Global Security page means it's not there? Well, it is very much there. The Global Security data is full of errors, so don't rely on that.


Can I ask what's your source? You shouldn't even tell me if it is from classified source.

As of now, apart from North East and 3rd Div in Leh there is no dedicated formation for defence of Ladakh, Uttaranchal and Himanchal.


Well that cannot be enough given just the number and size of passes to cover. I hope this is not what GOI deploys in a fight.

14 Corp will most likely take care of Ladakh Sector and new formation will sure have to be moved in. That's why there are plans to make a tunnel at the base of Rohtang Pass in Kullu Manali to make it available through out the year. 6th Div, as I said earlier is AHQ reserve which will take care of Uttaracnhal border during any shooting match with Chinese.


Even assuming that two brigades of 3rd Div at Leh and another brigade from Kargil are entirely dedicated to Ladakh it isn't enough. The size of the terrority being defended is too large. It is purely eye wash.

The time period movement cannot happen along the Chinese front. And the formations. The formations mentioned will be busy fighting the Pakis.


Based on my force match up I am missing two divisions in Jammu sector for Western Command. It will be helpful to have 4th fighting in Jammu. But there is no need for this extra division in SW command.

When you say gone, what is that you mean? relocated? or simply change of administrative structure? If 31st Armored has "gone", so will 4th Div. As they fight together as part of 1st Strike Corp


Simple admin structure change. I haven't read about any relocation. 31st Armoured for sure is with SW Command. I know they are 1st Strike Corp but then we are pushing more forces than required. Haven't you been following the creation of SW Command and the statements of JJ Singh?

So, integral tactical air mobility assets make them Airborne and Air Assault. Have you heard of the word "Airmobile"? We frankly do not know what is the philosophy behind this new raising apart from the fact they will be able to "maneouvre" using these assets in the mountains. and hence the ultra light howitzers. IMHO, these formations will be Air Assault capable but the extent will depend upon number of these integral air assets.


I am almost hoping it is this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:82nd ... ne_Div.png
Last edited by alokgupt on 07 Feb 2008 10:43, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 10:26

Rahul Shukla wrote:
alokgupt wrote:Watch your language... You aren't arguing with your wife that you can say anything. You are on a forum.


Well in that case have mercy on whatever you are riding.

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 10:34

JCage wrote:And for once, due attention is being paid to warstocks, For eg, how many of us knew that some 1650 R-77s have been ordered?


SIPRI has been reporting it since year 2001. Till 2006 675 R-77 were delivered.

(1600) R-77/AA-12 Adder BVRAAM (2000) 2001-2006 (675) For Su-30MKI, MiG-21UPG (modernized MiG-21bis) and possibly for MiG-29 and modernized MiG-27ML combat aircraft

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Postby Sanku » 07 Feb 2008 11:29

alokgupt wrote:
Sanku wrote:Why do you think we are making AIII++ and ATV etc? If folks didnt know? You seem to assume that morning happens when YOU wake up. :D


But I have seen people on this forum argue 100 AGNI 3 and we are done which is totally inadequate.


Says who; you and ...?

What is 100 AIII adequate for or not adequate for? Is the nuclear war a number game only?

No it doesn't...your analysis equates the probability of comet hitting earth and China attacking. Exactly the problem with your analysis!


No again your limited understanding abilities get in the way. What I equate the comet is with your scenario --

The chances for a two front war where Pak and China gang up and get everything in their stables on the border tomorrow and Indian leaders shivring and doing nothing and no other geo-pol movement also happening.

The problem is with the lack of your understanding.

They openly acknowledge that winning an open conflict with China will be difficult. And here we have Indian claiming we are more than a match for China.


Ok stop lying; who said we are "more" than a match for China?


How exactly birather? Buy saying that not possible for China to defeat us is same as saying we will defeat China?


I think you have been learnt in your life to just parse words. Who cares? What's your point?


Simple -- you are a yahoo who does not understand details and is doing timepass fear mongering real life details are outside your understanding.


Border for Northen Command in Kashmir is very similar to border with China. You keep asking useless questions. Where did I say force match up the same? I said force match up will be worse than we have on Indo-Pak border.


How is this a useless question? And how much of the battle in faught in Northern Kashmir in case of a full fledged war?

And secondly it is not the same -- similar is a cop out.

Why are you so confident that they can bring everything to the border? What is the great dream in which PBUH revealed this to you?


What makes you so certain they wouldn't? Did Chinese leaders tell you that?


You are the one claiming that nonsense; so you first.


rant on soliders...


Hello; so going back your logic a F22 pilot shoud fear a swarm of Mig 21 from Vietnamese AF.

Please cut the juvinile emotional crap.



Those are called upsets. I will not base India's defence on an upset. What makes you so sure 1:3 will hold? What if it fails? What's the level of surety?


What is called a upset? In the entire history of warfare the attacking force needs three times more than the defenders. This is the basic of warfare.

What is wrong with you.


ROI and war? Tell me ROI for China in 1962? You as JCage basing India's defence on one thing and one thing only - good offices of Chinkland :!:


Sure RoI for 62 war was pretty high for Chinese. They managed to undercut Indian influence in Tibet; lost nothing in terms of their geo-pol goals. Gain the land Indians were trying to push them away from.

Overall gain.

No nuclear scenario existed in 62 and the Indian army was still not ready.

Today is not 62.


Again good offices of chinkland!



What nonsense

Again good offices of chinkland!


Look boss debate; dont repeat the same thing over and over like a parrot.

T.everyone agrees China is a major threat to India but we have people here trying to convince us war is improbable...


No one said war was improbable. Only you are saying that.

and there is no urgency to prepare for the coming war with China. While US military have started to worry about coming threat from China and want to raise defence budget in US, here we have Indians saying well we are already too well prepared :!:


Again you are lying no one said that.

And there is a world of difference between saying a war is probable and a war is coming tomorrow thats not a difference in words thats a difference in meaning.

I dont expect you to get it though; too tough for you

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Postby Sanku » 07 Feb 2008 11:34

alokgupt wrote:
Just shows why I disagree so much with Sanku:

play game at mental level...publicly seeming to let Chinese be in advantageous position?

Translation: We don't need to spend much on defence. So what if China has a real military advantage.


Only an extraordinarily capable person can make that sort of translation (not saying you are one)

How does publicly posture and defense spending related? Public posture is about the noises we make in the world; defence spending is day to day operation of the country.

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Postby Sanku » 07 Feb 2008 11:52

Rahul Shukla wrote: Bhutan will be swallowed by China and cease to exist along with NE India.


I dont understand; Bhutan's borders are manned by IA; we have a security pact with them. Attacking Bhutan == Attacking India.

So I dont expect that Chinese will attack Bhutan and we will do nothing.

Nepal is a tricky one; yes; but I dont think we need worry about Bhutan.

Thats why Tawang is so important; taking Tawang means that the lee way we have through Bhutan in tackling the logistics through Chicken neck will be annuled.

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Postby alokgupt » 07 Feb 2008 12:13

Sanku wrote:Alok - No it doesn't...your analysis equates the probability of comet hitting earth and China attacking. Exactly the problem with your analysis!

No again your limited understanding abilities get in the way. What I equate the comet is with your scenario --

The chances for a two front war where Pak and China gang up and get everything in their stables on the border tomorrow and Indian leaders shivring and doing nothing and no other geo-pol movement also happening.

The problem is with the lack of your understanding.

Why are you so confident that they can bring everything to the border?

What is the great dream in which PBUH revealed this to you?

No one said war was improbable. Only you are saying that.

And there is a world of difference between saying a war is probable and a war is coming tomorrow thats not a difference in words thats a difference in meaning.


Most of your post isn't worth responding to. So sticking to main points.

You believe:
1) "The chances for a two front war where Pak and China gang up and get everything in their stables on the border tomorrow and Indian leaders shivring and doing nothing and no other geo-pol movement also happening."
2) No one said war was improbable. Only you are saying that.
3) And there is a world of difference between saying a war is probable and a war is coming tomorrow.

Based on 2 you agree war with China is probable enough to consider. Based on 3 you say it isn't coming tomorrow (I don't think there is much doubt about it because it will take time to move military to Tibet). But then you conclude in 1 India will not lose. There are three reasons you offer:

1) China and Pak will not attack together (what's the probability of comet hitting earth...since it is so low let us assume zero).
2) Even if China and Pak do attack together they will not bring enough assets (people+equipment+supplies) with have a chance of winning. Wonder why will they attack at all?
3) If by some chance that happens America will save us.

Your Conclusion: It is useless to prepare for a full scale war two front war with China and Pakistan. Also in case of China is useless to prepare for a war in which China brings much of its assets to fight India.

My conclusion: Your conclusion is wrong. We need to be ready to withstand full force of China without having to beg from America.

I am expecting you come back and say "when did I say we shouldn't prepare for full scale war". Well but why will one "prepare urgently" or be "paranoid about" (your words) for something as improbable as comet hitting the earth!


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