China Military Watch

alokgupt
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Postby alokgupt » 05 Feb 2008 18:25

Sanku wrote:Chinese sea lines are exposed to India. They will choke the malacca straits. If even a fraction of transport to China is harassed; using both destructive and purely dilatory tactics (search and board) China will be in trouble.


Yes that's one card India currently holds. It may not be valid in case Chinkland starts operating its submarines from Gawdar. The reason chief of navy is so concerned. But the question is will that be enough to stop dragons push for say 4 weeks.

It also assumes that in case of a two front war with India and China -- the geo-political situation will be such that the battle will remain contained with them attacking us and no more. After all in 62 there was a reason that Pakistan did not move correct? It was not all good will.


Porkis made a mistake based on some fake promises in 62. They will not repeat that mistake.

Which is not to say that defence procurements should not be pushed forth with greatest urgency; but the current level of Phobia displayed w.r.t to a enemy which cant even get its Su 27s up is really pathetic.

But yes; we should have the werewithal to trounce China like we can with Pakistan. That does not come cheap or easy though.


Classic double talk. While...but...so...or...and...if...but...then. What's the "greatest urgency" if you already have enough?

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Postby Philip » 05 Feb 2008 18:33

A very happy Chinese New Year to all! The current cold wave in China and the chaos at its rail centres,where millions are fighting to get home for the New Year,indicates the magnitude of China's problems in keeping its population with work and growing enough food to eat.The Chinese govt. and the Communist party are acutely aware that in a one party state,the buck stops with them and that a sudden outburst of anger,as we saw in Gaza recently,magnified a million times in China,can overthrow the regime.

The danger is when China is unable to solve its problems and is on the verge of colapse/anarchy,as is inevitable being undemocratic,it may decide to go to war to divert the population's discontent either with taiwan or elsewhere.Massive petro-product price hikes and chaos in the Gulf and Middle East could see China intervene on behalf of one of the parties,such as Iran,where it is already supplying it with missile technology and perhaps as with Pak,nuclear weapons knowhow.The logistic capability that China is rapdily improving and building up indicates long term plans.If the US and NATO can intervene in Afghanistan,as Russia did before,so too can China,afterall it has a common borderwith that country and Iran and the Gulf is the next stop.

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Postby Vivek K » 05 Feb 2008 19:20

Guys, I'm thankful to Alok for putting China front and center. We need to to reduce the the focus on Pakistan and increase the focus on China instead.

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Postby Sanku » 05 Feb 2008 19:31

alokgupt wrote:Yes that's one card India currently holds. It may not be valid in case Chinkland starts operating its submarines from Gawdar. The reason chief of navy is so concerned. But the question is will that be enough to stop dragons push for say 4 weeks.


That Chinese will be able to operate Subs in IOR region from Gawdar or else where is currently a little farfetched. Possible yes; but then we are taking of "probable" scenario rather than worst possible scenario.

Porkis made a mistake based on some fake promises in 62. They will not repeat that mistake.


Why?

Further -- Why will they be given the same promise?

Why will India not be in a more robust condition vis a vis 62.


Classic double talk. While...but...so...or...and...if...but...then. What's the "greatest urgency" if you already have enough?


You know I am getting a little impatient with the level of understanding you have been showing on the topic so far; not to mention the fact that you have been brandishing the lack thereof like a badge of honor to browbeat.

Can you please tell me what is the dichotomy between the two statements
1) If there is a war today on two front India will be hard pressed but its not a black or white outcome
2) We should continuously be aware of the fact that such a situation will arise and arm ourselves for it. At the same time we should not panic and start hitting other areas of Governance and economy for the same?

Ever heard of the term "balance"; and the fact that there is no such thing as enough in such matters? Enough for what exactly?

There is force disparity and various items that you list are also possible; what is not probable is that all will come together in one immediate scenario. There are many more pieces that will fall including nuclear missile exchange if push comes to shove.

By the way I am no fan of the UPA govt or their record in Indian rearmament over these five years; however I still realize that it is not yet the reason to run around screaming "the sky is falling on our heads". Not even BKs of the world who are exteremly strident about Indian needs do that.

Can you understand the difference between paranoia and panic?

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Postby Raymond » 05 Feb 2008 21:11

Regarding the air war part:just my two cents.
The war with China can be of two scenarios.From our viewpoint , defensive (China attacks AP) and offensive(Tibetan war of independence).IMHO while we are very capable of the defensive scenario but we are way behind in required capability in case of the offensive scenario.
Now lets consider the defensive scenario.There are two major roles the IAF has to play in such a case.
1.Provide local air superiority
2.Strike Chinese nodal endpoints thereby degrading the Chinese offensive capability.

1.In the defensive scenario we don’t have to have air superiority over entire Tibet/south China only locally.The IAF bases are located closer to the border than the Chinese ones.Okay we don’t have the exact location of newly constructed Chinese strips but I think its fair to assume that they are not that close to the border as ours.Infact it appears that the location of our ABs are tailormade for action on our northern-northwestern border.This is a huge advantage for the defensive force.Our aircrafts will be operating virtually on top of our bases.There is no use matching numbers because we cannot match them platform by platform.But the key word here is qualitative edge which at the present moment is ours in most cases.The main central point of this defense is ofcourse the force multipliers AWACS and refuellers.They will be operating over our bases(or deeper inland) helping to match the Chinese mission by mission(offensive vs defensive).Couple that with the advantage that our aircraft will operate right inside our AD network.And that is another major advantage.The CAS aircraft will also operate in this environment.

2.Very important role is the second one also.For this strikers are needed to be sent out on areas we don’t have air superiority.This is a bit difficult .The points we have to use to our advantage is very good deep penetration aircrafts at our disposal(and considerable numbers) matched with long range escort platforms.Loss of some aircraft in this case is to be expected but for temporary in and out raids there is a fair chance of succeeding for enemy infrastructure at tactical command control level.Using standoff weapons is also warranted.

In case of any coordinated Chinese offensive invariably the first target of their AF will be to neutralize ours regional ABs.To tide over that assault is crucial to our whole defense.For that long range EW radars , a robust AD network plus having ample interceptors as well as AWACs always ready are essential.I think that the mountains can be a good barrier to ALCMs.

Please feel free to disagree/contradict etc.

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Postby Raymond » 05 Feb 2008 21:19

Vivek K wrote:Guys, I'm thankful to Alok for putting China front and center. We need to to reduce the the focus on Pakistan and increase the focus on China instead.

I totally agree.We should get rid of the pak centric mentality or at least tone it down a little and adopt a broader perspective.

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Postby Vivek K » 05 Feb 2008 23:24

Raymond wrote:Okay we don’t have the exact location of newly constructed Chinese strips but I think its fair to assume that they are not that close to the border as ours.


Raymond, with so many satellites in space, how come we will not know the exact location of new Chinese Strips?

Do we have any Tibetans (covert or overt) in the Indian Army? IIRC there were some Tibetan Commandos etc that did well in 62.

Our AD gaps must be removed and all DPSAs upgraded (Jags 150 plus and Mig-27s 50 - 110) to be made more lethal.

One crucial element to fight against China may be to have the Pakis busy with domestic disturbance. To that extent I hope that the appropriate agencies are working dilligently. If assets could be removed from the west to the East, that would be a great help.

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Postby hnair » 06 Feb 2008 03:18

If they see an opportunity like a war in the Eastern front for India, Pak Army will pull all stops to unite the country. All it needs is for an influential mullah to be arm twisted into making it a jihad. Threaten US with heightened Al Qaeda attacks and loosening controls over the "critical spare parts" required to complete their nukes and the US will also back off. Right now, they cannot do that easily, as ordinary Abdul knows that his ass will be toast if his country tries anything. But even a slightly weakened India can boost his dutch courage and the rest will be done by sarkari mullahs.

But that is probably already gamed thoroughly by the wise people in Delhi. Airstrips of China etc are all well mapped by now. And the SFF is still wellfunded and well trained to operate behind lines. What the IAF cant do, they can do with gusto and they are already fighting in their own country, Tibet. Local support for them is a given, unlike the PLA. All railway lines have choke points. Particularly those in the hills and plateaus.

Same with the sea lanes. If Pakis dont want their butt spanked, Gwadar stays out of any Indo-Chinese action. And then Malacca straits.

The big battle will be fought in the West. As in Western nations. That is where Dalai Lama and his considerable jollyness should play a key role. He should lease the Grauman's Chinese Theatre (where else? :) ) from his friends in Hollywood and organize mega-telethons for refugees, prayers for the Tibetans etc. In short, Little Rock, Arkansas (Clintons and Walmart) needs to be completely checkmated.

And oh yeah, the war must not end with a wishy washy "peace treaty", where Tibetans are sold down the Brahmaputra 8)

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Postby Gaurav_S » 06 Feb 2008 04:21

Folks, please accept my two cents on Indo-China scenario. As per today India's defence forces are no where even close to Chinese forces in numbers. Myself dont possess great insight about Chinese forces but from what has been discussed on BRF in last few days certainly gives me feeling about fishy Chinese forces. We cant match with Chinese in terms of numbers but we will always have to rely on superior technology.

We have currently no idea when, how and what PLA will do to snatch AP.
All it comes down to is to be fully prepared. Glad to see that IN will get few scorpenes and ATV around 2012-2014, IA will induct Agni III variants if everything goes well. This is going to materialize. But what if something happens in next couple of years.

Do we have all strategic information about Chinese airbases, border roads and supply chain?

Do we have reliable intelligence that can predict their moves?

And finally, if yes to above both do politicians have will(IOW balls) to do something offensive if required?

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Postby JimmyJ » 06 Feb 2008 06:43

gauravsurati wrote:And finally, if yes to above both do politicians have will(IOW balls) to do something offensive if required?


Our politicians should have listened to the speech of Hilary Clinton in which she said she doesn't believe that America will be the greatest nation for ever, but that is in the hands of Americans; their actions which will decide it. I wondered whether we had one politician of that caliber to accept the same about our nation.

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Postby alokgupt » 06 Feb 2008 06:56

Sanku wrote:That Chinese will be able to operate Subs in IOR region from Gawdar or else where is currently a little farfetched. Possible yes; but then we are taking of "probable" scenario rather than worst possible scenario.


No it isn't. The exact reason Navy chief raised it. And also the reason Porkis replied in such bad taste.

Porkis made a mistake based on some fake promises in 62. They will not repeat that mistake.

Why?

Further -- Why will they be given the same promise?


In 62 China wasn't seen to be super power. USSR was sitting next to Afghanistan. Porkis were therefore stronger American ally. No longer. China is clear super power. USSR is no where to be seen. America is too far off to make any difference. Also america is in no mood for direct conflict with Chinkland. So Porkis are now Chink allies more than American allies.

Why will India not be in a more robust condition vis a vis 62.


India absolutely is...but so is Lizardland and Porkland.

Can you please tell me what is the dichotomy between the two statements
1) If there is a war today on two front India will be hard pressed but its not a black or white outcome
2) We should continuously be aware of the fact that such a situation will arise and arm ourselves for it. At the same time we should not panic and start hitting other areas of Governance and economy for the same?


If Porkis and Lizardland come together to fight India, the outcome is clear - India is defeated. Why will anything hit Governance? That you mention economy is interesting...translation we don't want to spend more on defence!

Ever heard of the term "balance"; and the fact that there is no such thing as enough in such matters? Enough for what exactly?

There is force disparity and various items that you list are also possible; what is not probable is that all will come together in one immediate scenario. There are many more pieces that will fall including nuclear missile exchange if push comes to shove.


You aren't showing balance. You are parsing words. Nuclear threat doesn't work. Do you really think Indian leaders will use nuclear weapons against China when they will get back thrice the number (and also megaton weapons) on large population centers? NO

By the way I am no fan of the UPA govt or their record in Indian rearmament over these five years; however I still realize that it is not yet the reason to run around screaming "the sky is falling on our heads". Not even BKs of the world who are exteremly strident about Indian needs do that.


And what exactly will be the reason?

Can you understand the difference between paranoia and panic?


And how did you decipher from my posts that it is one or the other.

You basically parsing words.
Last edited by alokgupt on 06 Feb 2008 07:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby alokgupt » 06 Feb 2008 07:01

hnair wrote:If they see an opportunity like a war in the Eastern front for India, Pak Army will pull all stops to unite the country.

Airstrips of China etc are all well mapped by now. And the SFF is still wellfunded and well trained to operate behind lines. What the IAF cant do, they can do with gusto and they are already fighting in their own country, Tibet. Local support for them is a given, unlike the PLA. All railway lines have choke points. Particularly those in the hills and plateaus.


Do you see any insurgency in Tibet? How about Maoists and Naxals in India?

Same with the sea lanes. If Pakis dont want their butt spanked, Gwadar stays out of any Indo-Chinese action. And then Malacca straits.


Gwadar is unlikely to stay out of action in next Indo-China conflict.

And oh yeah, the war must not end with a wishy washy "peace treaty", where Tibetans are sold down the Brahmaputra 8)


I completely agree. But I don't there is a burning consensus among Indians about doing this.

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Postby alokgupt » 06 Feb 2008 07:09

Vivek K wrote:Raymond, with so many satellites in space, how come we will not know the exact location of new Chinese Strips?


We do. You can see many airstrips if you have the patience to go through the area in Google earth as well. I have seen some of them. I am sure Indian military knows about all of them.

Our AD gaps must be removed and all DPSAs upgraded (Jags 150 plus and Mig-27s 50 - 110) to be made more lethal.


We need these three things:

1) 60 squadrons of modern fighters
2) 6 additional divisions i.e. mountain strike corp
3) New Artillery to be inducted

Alternatively we can simply do one thing:

1) Get 1000 Agni 3 (3 MIRV) with thermonuclear war heads on land and in ATV. And we are done!

But you will again see the same people who claimed we have "enough" forces against China claim we just need 100 or so...

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Postby alokgupt » 06 Feb 2008 07:12

Raymond wrote:
Vivek K wrote:Guys, I'm thankful to Alok for putting China front and center. We need to to reduce the the focus on Pakistan and increase the focus on China instead.

I totally agree.We should get rid of the pak centric mentality or at least tone it down a little and adopt a broader perspective.


Our military leaders have so many times tried to do this but again we are just too focussed on Porkis. Our army / air force chiefs have talked about "india is too big for us have to worry about Pakistan". George Fernandes said "China is our enemy number one". If someone by mistake talks about China many Indians (especially communists but also others) will immediatelly jump him / her and paint him as alarmist or jingo. You just saw folks on this forum do it. What do you expect from Barka Dutt?

Real generals have already said it but based on my force comparision I could clearly see that Porkis live in lallaland when they talk about defeating India. There is ZERO probability that Pakistan can defeat India. They have less than half the air force we have. They have fewer artillery pieces. In terms of force match up for army divisions they can give us hard time in Jammu/ Chamb region and also in Kashmir. But they can win only in their dreams.

But the sobering fact is that we start acting like Pakistanis when it comes to China. We know China has at least twice what India has. And we suddenly start giving same excuses as Pakistanis: 1) China cannot bring their entire forces to the battle (they damn well can and will if that's what is required to win). 2) We have superior techonolgy so we can hold 1:2. 3) Ours is defensive battle so we will prevail (with 1:3 superiority no it will not happen). 4) China doesn't have the balls to attack (they do) 5) China is like India it wouldn't start the war (this is unlike pakis who believe india will definitely start war when it has the strength to win).

As Jaswant Singh (no great fan of his but he said something very sobering) said something like "world polity is a game of possibilities not by probabilities". Essentially if there is an opportunity you can be damn sure opportunity will be taken even if all your analysis shows it to be low probability!
Last edited by alokgupt on 06 Feb 2008 07:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Baljeet » 06 Feb 2008 07:25

Alok
I agree with your posts and threat scenario. Someone said, how about Khampa rebellion...that is just a pipe dream. Native tibetans are drowned by the influx of Han Chinese. Anyone who thinks chinese are not planning to settle the boundary dispute in their favor by every means and method available at their discretion is in slumber. They know their weakness and strength, they know our weakness and strength. They are working on multi-pronged strategy. They are building up their infrastructure in tibet, making their proxies do the dirty work (Amaar sonar bongladeshey, jive jive pakistan, pakistan piss in the wind, pakistan zin in the wind) if anything is left, Indian commies, maoist+naxalites are taking care of that. First battle has already been lost, eg nepal, maoist are in full control of that nation. Worst case scenario, nepal signs a military pact with china, chinese forces are knocking on our doors in tehri-garhwal region. China is back tracking on their premise that "Sikkim is an integral part of India" whereas our political leadership never let a day pass by adhering to One china policy and accepting Tibet as china's autonomous region. Ask a chinese official if he gives a DAMN about what India thinks about Tibet. 100% of possesion gives 100% legitimacy.
I can say this, when push comes to shove, Most of current Indian leaders will not be alive. You can't hold dead man responsible for the future disasters.
Chinese have done their homework in studying Indian Psyche. This nations needs to get rid of "Gandhi Khandan" "Chacha Nehru" "Bujurg knows best" mentality. We need complete replacement of our political leadership who just thinks about Bharat and Bharat only.

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Postby alokgupt » 06 Feb 2008 07:33

Baljeet wrote:Alok
I agree with your posts and threat scenario. Someone said, how about Khampa rebellion...that is just a pipe dream. Native tibetans are drowned by the influx of Han Chinese. Anyone who thinks chinese are not planning to settle the boundary dispute in their favor by every means and method available at their discretion is in slumber. They know their weakness and strength, they know our weakness and strength. They are working on multi-pronged strategy. They are building up their infrastructure in tibet, making their proxies do the dirty work (Amaar sonar bongladeshey, jive jive pakistan, pakistan piss in the wind, pakistan zin in the wind) if anything is left, Indian commies, maoist+naxalites are taking care of that. First battle has already been lost, eg nepal, maoist are in full control of that nation. Worst case scenario, nepal signs a military pact with china, chinese forces are knocking on our doors in tehri-garhwal region. China is back tracking on their premise that "Sikkim is an integral part of India" whereas our political leadership never let a day pass by adhering to One china policy and accepting Tibet as china's autonomous region. Ask a chinese official if he gives a DAMN about what India thinks about Tibet. 100% of possesion gives 100% legitimacy.
I can say this, when push comes to shove, Most of current Indian leaders will not be alive. You can't hold dead man responsible for the future disasters.
Chinese have done their homework in studying Indian Psyche. This nations needs to get rid of "Gandhi Khandan" "Chacha Nehru" "Bujurg knows best" mentality. We need complete replacement of our political leadership who just thinks about Bharat and Bharat only.


Wholesale replacement of India political leadership with top government bureacracy (IAS+IPS) is long overdue! We will go no where without it.

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Postby Sanku » 06 Feb 2008 09:30

alokgupt wrote:
Sanku wrote:That Chinese will be able to operate Subs in IOR region from Gawdar or else where is currently a little farfetched. Possible yes; but then we are taking of "probable" scenario rather than worst possible scenario.


No it isn't. The exact reason Navy chief raised it. And also the reason Porkis replied in such bad taste.


You are waffeling; what did Navy chief say that we are going to all die tomorrow? That INs edge is eroded? That Chinki subs may operate out of Gawadar? That all this will happen along with a two front war? Tomorrow?

Dont hyper extrapolate the comments made by Navy chief; the comments these folks make are for public consumption -- he is letting the enemy know we are on to them in case they pull any nasty tricks.

He is also warning Indians to be aware. What else do can you claim on the basis of the statement?


In 62 China wasn't seen to be super power. USSR was sitting next to Afghanistan. Porkis were therefore stronger American ally. No longer. China is clear super power. USSR is no where to be seen. America is too far off to make any difference. Also america is in no mood for direct conflict with Chinkland. So Porkis are now Chink allies more than American allies.


Now is US which IN Afgainstan which is not Pak's friend any more and may pull some stunts of its own for its own reasons against China and Pak. If you forget Afganistan is next to China now; and dont look now; but US has pretty much encircled China which it did not in 62. In 62 the Russikes were at least on the same side as China (communism) now they dont care much anyway.

So? The facts have changed; you are again extrapolating 62 when there is no basis for the same.


Why will India not be in a more robust condition vis a vis 62.


India absolutely is...but so is Lizardland and Porkland.


Porkland? You are joking right? Porkland was much better off in matters of armament procurement than a brain dead (defence wise) India under Nehru.

If Porkis and Lizardland come together to fight India, the outcome is clear - India is defeated.


Huh -- since when? Says who? On what basis.

Why will anything hit Governance? That you mention economy is interesting...translation we don't want to spend more on defence!


Are you deliberately obtuse or does not looking at thing other than yes and no is your natural affliction?

The question is how much more do we want to spend on defence. 5% GDP 20% GDP; 40% GDP?

The other question is how do we want to spend it? All nukes? All tanks? All exports? All Chinese style photoshoping? How?

There are many variables you are just behaving like some one from kindergarten who can look at only yes or no.

You aren't showing balance. You are parsing words.


Boss in real life there are no Rambo's; what you call parsing words is the painstaking look at details which work.

Nuclear threat doesn't work. Do you really think Indian leaders will use nuclear weapons against China when they will get back thrice the number (and also megaton weapons) on large population centers? NO


Really -- in which case we may as well fold the tent and go home right? Since you have already decided to give away the strongest card?

So the entire GoI need for getting nukes is just a sham eh? Will CHina use the weapons? What if we target their population centers? Can chinese be sure we wont do that?

Yindoos show strange cussedness when not expected you know.



You basically parsing words.


Look boss you are indulging is juvinile hyper extrapolation -- this may happen that may happen -- etc and when challenged to put up -- you have this watered down defence -- that I am parsing words.

It may come as a surprise to you; but the world is a complicated place and it has more details than yes win -- no lose.

Even 62 war was a boon to India in many ways a defeat would never be.

So grow up and start looking at the real world and not the pictures you paint in your head.

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Postby Sanku » 06 Feb 2008 09:33

alokgupt wrote:
But you will again see the same people who claimed we have "enough" forces against China claim we just need 100 or so...


Enough for what what buddy? Could you trouble your mind to see what do folks say we have enough for.

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Postby Sanku » 06 Feb 2008 09:36

alokgupt wrote:Wholesale replacement of India political leadership with top government bureacracy (IAS+IPS) is long overdue! We will go no where without it.


This is both nonsense and OT; some people seem to bat for India but in reality they are besotted with Chinese including their Autocratic system of governance and buy all the Chinese hype hook, line and sinker.

Now its easy to see where you are coming from really; just another glazed eye fan boy

:lol:

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Postby Sanku » 06 Feb 2008 09:51

alokgupt wrote: If someone by mistake talks about China many Indians (especially communists but also others) will immediatelly jump him / her and paint him as alarmist or jingo. You just saw folks on this forum do it. What do you expect from Barka Dutt?


Again hyper extrapolation if not outright lying; and I am being charitable. No one here said that China is not enemy number one; and dont for a second think that GoI brass does not understand.

Also not all that GoI understands it says; only once in a while some one like George Unkle says it aloud. And he does so at that time for a reason.

Why do you think we are making AIII++ and ATV etc? If folks didnt know? You seem to assume that morning happens when YOU wake up. :D

These programs have been in piple line for years.

All people are saying here is that you are overestimating Chinese ability and underestimating Indian ones as well as all the factors being really worst possible.

The above is plain childish. A similar analysis can be done to show that US will go down the tube tomorrow or a comet may wipe out all life on earth.

Please....

But the sobering fact is that we start acting like Pakistanis when it comes to China.


How exactly birather? Buy saying that not possible for China to defeat us is same as saying we will defeat China?

You are really poor at comprehension it seems.

We know China has at least twice what India has. And we suddenly start giving same excuses as Pakistanis: 1) China cannot bring their entire forces to the battle (they damn well can and will if that's what is required to win).


Oh wise one is the India pak border same as India china?

Is the force match up on the border same.

Why are you so confident that they can bring everything to the border? What is the great dream in which PBUH revealed this to you?

2) We have superior techonolgy so we can hold 1:2.


Yes so? Only because you decide it is not is it.

3) Ours is defensive battle so we will prevail (with 1:3 superiority no it will not happen)


Because you say so? The entire history of mil battles doesnt count a shit does it?

. 4) China doesn't have the balls to attack (they do)


Who said that? No one but you. All people have said is that China is not a idiot who thinks by balls alone (like you evidently do) They will see the ROI for going to war.

5) China is like India it wouldn't start the war (this is unlike pakis who believe india will definitely start war when it has the strength to win).


Yes Chinese are not mad men like Porkies; they will see if it really helps them.

And dont childishly extrapolate what Jasso said; he said that improbable possibilities may happen too; sure every one agrees.

At really at any instant there are infinite possibilities. Do you really think all the improbable ones happen too? All the infinite possibilities are exercised?

This is discussion should really be in the humor thread.

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Postby Raymond » 06 Feb 2008 11:22

Vivek K wrote:
Raymond wrote:Okay we don’t have the exact location of newly constructed Chinese strips but I think its fair to assume that they are not that close to the border as ours.


Raymond, with so many satellites in space, how come we will not know the exact location of new Chinese Strips?

Lol, I should have been more clear.I meant "we" as in "the forumites",not the Int people.

Anyway if somebody found those locations on GE then what about pointing them in a map..so that we can have an idea of their effectivenes.

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Postby Sanku » 06 Feb 2008 11:50

AlokGupt -- You dont have to answer every post I made line by line. That is pointless; as it is you have filled up the thread with many a long posts which are all identical -- end of world is coming -- predictions and short on real debate.

It would be better if you can take one or two points at time and address them in a holistic manner taking all the points which impact the same rather than reporting that chinese army = 2x indian army.

If it didnt occur to you; pretty much every one knows already its not a big secret.

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Postby Raymond » 06 Feb 2008 11:54

alokgupt wrote:Our military leaders have so many times tried to do this but again we are just too focussed on Porkis. Our army / air force chiefs have talked about "india is too big for us have to worry about Pakistan". George Fernandes said "China is our enemy number one". If someone by mistake talks about China many Indians (especially communists but also others) will immediatelly jump him / her and paint him as alarmist or jingo. You just saw folks on this forum do it. What do you expect from Barka Dutt?

I agree with you but lets just leave out the me vs you when we all are on the same side shall we? :)
Real generals have already said it but based on my force comparision I could clearly see that Porkis live in lallaland when they talk about defeating India. There is ZERO probability that Pakistan can defeat India. They have less than half the air force we have. They have fewer artillery pieces. In terms of force match up for army divisions they can give us hard time in Jammu/ Chamb region and also in Kashmir. But they can win only in their dreams.

We are more than a match for Pakistan because we are ahead on numbers sure,but also on quality.
We know China has at least twice what India has. And we suddenly start giving same excuses as Pakistanis: 1) China cannot bring their entire forces to the battle (they damn well can and will if that's what is required to win).

Agreed.Neither can we bring our entire forces to bear upon the Chinese.But also think that the location of the conflict will still decide what percentage of our forces and also theirs can be brought to the battle.Its the number of assets which can be brought at a particular time and place that matters not overall numbers.
2) We have superior techonolgy so we can hold 1:2.

History is scattered with examples where a technologically superior force has had decisive victory over superior numbers.
3) Ours is defensive battle so we will prevail (with 1:3 superiority no it will not happen).

As I said it depends on the numbers which each country can bring to bear at the time and place required.If indeed its 1:3 ratio at the place of impact it will be very difficult for sure.But surely a well organised defence can tackle with superior no. of attackers particularly if the defensive force has the technological and tactical advantage.For example the frontlie is closer to our bases than theirs.So the sortie rates of our aircrafts will be much better than theirs.That means effectively we are providing a good number of assets at the frontline 24X7 while a lot of their assets are out of battle at the times of flying to and fro from the base and frontline.Lack of superior numbers can be overcome in this scenario.
4) China doesn't have the balls to attack (they do) 5) China is like India it wouldn't start the war (this is unlike pakis who believe india will definitely start war when it has the strength to win)

Any country will definitely attack another country if it feels it is warranted enough.

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Postby Philip » 06 Feb 2008 13:02

From China's track record in the region,there are some interesting instances deserving examination to predict its future actions.In '71,China did not intervene on Pak's behalf to save Pak's eastern half .Why? That war was around the corner was a well known fact for some time.Did Yahya not inform his Chinese pals that he was to attack us? It seems strange.Or was it that our rapid rout of the paki army was never factored in,the pakis themselves hoped for holding out for months unil international intervention forced a ceasefire.

Likewise,during Kargil,what were the Chinese doing?Will China threaten intervention only in the disputed areas on the boundary in any spat with India,or will it be bolder and support an adventurist ally like pak in the future?

China has made masisve investments in money,military hardware and longterm strategic interests in Pak,its "closest ally and all weather friend".If Pak is seen to be going under or breaking apart and the paki army screams for help from China,would China intervene militarily on behalf of its ally?One has to draw up the chances of such an event taking place in pak,with the chances of a pro- Islamist military coup in the future being a more likely option.That would however enrage the US and some sort of US action against paki nukes is possible.China could send in its "technical experts" before such a crisis deepens,to forestall any military action that would affect Chinese nationals (however,we must keep in mind that in the Balkans War,the US did not hesitate to strike even a precise section of the Chinese embassy in a precision air attack) With Gwadar being developed by the Chinese for future sub ops,at the mouth of the Gulf and given Chinese large scale military supplies to Iran,the Chinese might very well decide to send in its own forces to preserve its foothold.

Again,in the case of Bangladesh and Burma,the latter being more likely given that it has a common boundary,will the Chinese send in troops/military assistance at the request of the dictatorship of the day,as Brezhnev did in Afghanistan.This may happen if pro-western democratic forces bring the regime to the point of collapse and a similar "safforn/orange" revolution takes place in Burma,as was engineered in ex-Warsaw Pact countries like Ukraine.

Any attempt in a future crisis in the Middle East/Asia to sever Chinese oil supplies in the IOR by NATO/US forces (if China is on the point of invading Taiwan or launching attacks aginst it),in retaliation for Chines eintervention in Taiwan,etc.,would definitely find a Chinese miliatry response.This could be a very complicated situation for India,as we are resolved to see that the freedom of the seas of IOR area vailable for all nations.Abandoning our traditional non-aligned posture could invite a Chinese reaction against us too and we would be under tremendous pressure from both sides.This is precisely why China is accelearting the development of its navy to be able to conduct full open ocean "blue water"warfare,with a future fleet of long range nuclear subs and carrier task forces.

However,Chinese moves generally follow Sun Tzus doctrine,where China would prefer that intense pressure upon a rival without resorting to force,but fear instead,ultimately makes the rival cave in.That is why on contentious issues that involve China,China always goes on the diplomatic offensive (like the ex-Chinese ambassador to India),as his statements on Arunachal Pradesh were,keeping its opponent on the backfoot guessing always.Making its opponents feel inferior to demoralise them and enginer self-doubt, is an ancient tactic of the Middle Kingom.

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Postby Sanku » 06 Feb 2008 13:57

Wise words Philip; the game is also played at a mental level with Chinese where their threat perception is important.

The real victory against the Chinese is to get what we want from the real world while publicly (GoI position) seeming to let the Chinese be in advantageous position.

Even when US does something against China; its always a accident; accidentally US pilots lose their way over chinese midlands and are some time forced down etc.

US seems to know the Chinese mind well as a result of nearly 30 decades of conflict.

To fight the Chinese we have to think like Chinese and not be a bull in China shop.

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Postby JimmyJ » 06 Feb 2008 17:07

One thing to be noticed about Chineese way of mental war is, rather than the prominent leaders its the second tier leadership that always brings up the controversial issues in public. Due to this our prime minister may refrain from making a comment on it considering that the Chineese president hasn't expressed the view on it. This is something we can pay back on the same scale if our leaders have a will to use a second tier of leaders.

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Postby alokgupt » 06 Feb 2008 18:07

Sanku wrote:Why do you think we are making AIII++ and ATV etc? If folks didnt know? You seem to assume that morning happens when YOU wake up. :D


But I have seen people on this forum argue 100 AGNI 3 and we are done which is totally inadequate.

All people are saying here is that you are overestimating Chinese ability and underestimating Indian ones as well as all the factors being really worst possible.

The above is plain childish. A similar analysis can be done to show that US will go down the tube tomorrow or a comet may wipe out all life on earth.


No it doesn't...your analysis equates the probability of comet hitting earth and China attacking. Exactly the problem with your analysis!

Meanwhile US military openly worries about China now. They openly acknowledge that winning an open conflict with China will be difficult. And here we have Indian claiming we are more than a match for China. What a joke!

How exactly birather? Buy saying that not possible for China to defeat us is same as saying we will defeat China?


I think you have been learnt in your life to just parse words. Who cares? What's your point?

Oh wise one is the India pak border same as India china?

Is the force match up on the border same.


Border for Northen Command in Kashmir is very similar to border with China. You keep asking useless questions. Where did I say force match up the same? I said force match up will be worse than we have on Indo-Pak border.

Why are you so confident that they can bring everything to the border? What is the great dream in which PBUH revealed this to you?


What makes you so certain they wouldn't? Did Chinese leaders tell you that?

2) We have superior techonolgy so we can hold 1:2.


Yes so? Only because you decide it is not is it.


And we want our soldiers to fight against the force double the size. Ever thought from soldiers point of view. Every thought what it will do to the count of casualities? And every worried whether it will be enough for victory? If I am wrong, all we have done is obtain a clear advantage over China. If you are wrong what happens?

3) Ours is defensive battle so we will prevail (with 1:3 superiority no it will not happen)


Because you say so? The entire history of mil battles doesnt count a shit does it?


Those are called upsets. I will not base India's defence on an upset. What makes you so sure 1:3 will hold? What if it fails? What's the level of surety?

Who said that? No one but you. All people have said is that China is not a idiot who thinks by balls alone (like you evidently do) They will see the ROI for going to war.

Yes Chinese are not mad men like Porkies; they will see if it really helps them.


ROI and war? Tell me ROI for China in 1962? You as JCage basing India's defence on one thing and one thing only - good offices of Chinkland :!:

And dont childishly extrapolate what Jasso said; he said that improbable possibilities may happen too; sure every one agrees.


Again good offices of chinkland!

At really at any instant there are infinite possibilities. Do you really think all the improbable ones happen too? All the infinite possibilities are exercised?

Again good offices of chinkland!

This is discussion should really be in the humor thread.


I will rather call it Indian sorrow thread. Let us understand what the discussion so far has been about...everyone agrees China is a major threat to India but we have people here trying to convince us war is improbable...and there is no urgency to prepare for the coming war with China. While US military have started to worry about coming threat from China and want to raise defence budget in US, here we have Indians saying well we are already too well prepared :!:

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Postby alokgupt » 06 Feb 2008 18:12

Sanku wrote:Wise words Philip; the game is also played at a mental level with Chinese where their threat perception is important.

The real victory against the Chinese is to get what we want from the real world while publicly (GoI position) seeming to let the Chinese be in advantageous position.

Even when US does something against China; its always a accident; accidentally US pilots lose their way over chinese midlands and are some time forced down etc.


Just shows why I disagree so much with Sanku:

play game at mental level...publicly seeming to let Chinese be in advantageous position?

Translation: We don't need to spend much on defence. So what if China has a real military advantage.

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Postby alokgupt » 06 Feb 2008 18:21

Philip wrote:In '71,China did not intervene on Pak's behalf to save Pak's eastern half .Why?


After 1962 war it fought a war with USSR in 1969. Pak was US ally. India was USSR ally. Indira Gandhi choose winter months for the fight. Infrastructure in 1971 does not compare with infrastructure today.

That war was around the corner was a well known fact for some time.Did Yahya not inform his Chinese pals that he was to attack us? It seems strange.Or was it that our rapid rout of the paki army was never factored in,the pakis themselves hoped for holding out for months unil international intervention forced a ceasefire.


Read Nixon's unclassified transcripts. They never thought situation in Bangladesh will become so hopeless that the army of pure in Bangla land can be defeated by just mukti bani.

Likewise,during Kargil,what were the Chinese doing?Will China threaten intervention only in the disputed areas on the boundary in any spat with India,or will it be bolder and support an adventurist ally like pak in the future?


Kargil instead was fought when summer was around. The reason BJP did not open another front in Rajasthan. Btw remind me where was Mushy when GOI intercepted his satellite phone call?

However,Chinese moves generally follow Sun Tzus doctrine,where China would prefer that intense pressure upon a rival without resorting to force,but fear instead,ultimately makes the rival cave in.


Porkis do it all the time. Do we feel threatened by Porkis? No. But why is it that it is different with China? So Tzus doctrine doesn't matter if are confident of your own defences!

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Postby Vivek K » 06 Feb 2008 19:38

alokgupt wrote:Kargil instead was fought when summer was around. The reason BJP did not open another front in Rajasthan. Btw remind me where was Mushy when GOI intercepted his satellite phone call?

Alok, you haven't answered Phillips question as to why the Chinese did not help Pakis during Kargil. It was summer, so why did the Chinese hold back? (You have said that India prefers to fight in winters). This is not an attempt to flame or to criticize but to understand your point better.

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Postby JCage » 06 Feb 2008 23:32

alokgupt wrote:What do you mean? All Flankers will need refuellers? How about the air fields in Tibet? Couldn't they support 272 Flankers? What's the rationale for your point for PRC not being able to support all Flankers?


It is upto to you provide the data to show that those airfields can support 272 Flankers. Currently the Scramble site and other sites clearly show they cant. Please educate yourself about the basics of what even ONE Flanker squadron requires before posting arguementative drivel.


What basic operational hurdles have they not crossed? Let us first fix a date 2010. Now answer this in that context.


No- you tell us what all they have crossed! You cant, because YOU dont know. Nobody does. It just suits your silly arguement to fix an arbitrary date and manufacture evidence accordingly. But that is NOT good enough.



125 Flankers in 3 years comes to 40 a year. Btw 180 Flankers in 7 years comes to 25 a year. Got it? The reality doesn't change by closing your eyes. What's the number you think PRC will have by 2010?


Your silliness knows no bounds. Sunil has already posted an article showing that there MAX production rate is at 17 a year. Your lack of knowledge is also evident from the fact that you dont even realise that the newer Flankers are to use Chinese engines which would entail even longer development, manufacturing timelines not to mention operationalization.

Yet you persist with your make believe claims. By 2011, India aims to field another 13+15+15+16+40 Flankers of its own- actual HAL production numbers. But you havent even considered those, or their capabilities vs the PLAAFs older Flankers. Why would you, since you debate using manufactured claims!




This is basically JCage again ignoring the facts.


What facts? You quote fanboy websites, manufacture claims of 400 Flankers out of thin air and you expect to be taken seriously? This is not a forum for making bizarre claims.


A-5 radius is 400 km at full load (2000kg). What kind of payload degradation do you see in Tibet?


Are you even aware of the operating height at which that payload is achieved? Please investigate further- I would have provided the data, but your silly arguementative behaviour evokes no reason for me to do your work for you.


Mig 21 are comparable to A-5. No they aren't better. Don't confuse A-5 with Mig 19. PRC had plenty of Mig 19 (J-6) all of which we aren't counting.


Your ignorance speaks for itself! The A-5 is a MiG-19 derivative. Kindly do some basic research before wasting my and this forums time!

The MiG-21 is a generation ahead of the MiG-19 and its aerodynamic performance is far better, allowing it to act in both air to air and air to ground. The Bison is comparable to a 4th generation aircraft in terms of its A2G and A2A capability- if you dont even have the grace to admit your mistakes, dont make up claims!




How many escorts can IAF provide vs PRC?

PRC Flankers 272+J-10 70 = 344
IAF Flankers 50 + Mig 29 50 + Mirage 2000 50 = 150
Ratio of modern fighters PRC/ IAF > 2


Once again, you blithely assume that the entire PLAAF can be shifted lock stock and barrel vs the IAF. Were things were that simple! You are yet to prove that even a fraction of that number can be staged from the area- kindly look into the other thread to understand the effort necessary to make airfields transferrable for multi-ops! Second, you demonstrate your ignorance again by assuming that huge escorts have to be provided- all that is needed is to hold off a PLAAF force while the strikers attack, and there is no evidence that PLAAF even has a credible night attack capability! Whereas the IAF will attack at night.




No don't list the satellite airfields in India because I know where they are. Just list PRC air fields which cannot handle fighters!


The Scramble list is available in the thread. Go ahead and mark them yourself.

Good point. But Flanker and J-10 are.


No they are NOT. Please tell us how many night attack pods are in the PLAAF inventory as of today, and what their capabilities are! The only ones mentioned capable with a prototype chinese pod (and with obsolete FLIR tech) are a handful of JH-7s.


Have you? What's your source? This is JCage ignoring facts.


Dont act like a five year old kid please, your behaviour reflects sorely on the forum and the rest of us who have to tolerate your insolent and childish behaviour. Several pages on FAS are choc full of errors. Your bawling about it wont make FAS some great site. Next, you'll be quoting strategy page as a source.


Not related. Fusion test of 1998 was actually a flop.


Of course its related. It proves your great source is prone to errors. And about 1998, FAS et al did muck raking about all tests. Please educate yourself about who runs FAS and what FAS stands for.



Not related. And what are your sources?


Of course its related. Your claims are junk because they rely on cherrypicked sites and you resort to hyperbole.



Did you even check the list on FAS site? Or you just yapping without even reviewing the facts?


I dont yap, curs do- and BRF is not a kennel. Grow up, ditch the insults and realise this. Your copy paste will impress nobody unless you can provide EVIDENCE of what some stupid site or whatever says. If you cant, admit it and walk on. Or ask folks to assist you with the calculations. All you have done is engage in a silly fifth grade shouting match.




This concept of theater is busted. How many fighters will India hold back to deal with Bangladesh? PRC will hold back the same number for Taiwan. Taiwan poses no military threat to China. It isn't like PRC will be fighting war for next decade. It is at max a matter of weeks or months. This the same argument that Pakistanis use about India holding back its fighters to deal with China. No wonder they always lose.


Please do us all a favour and research some basics before posting. If you had any evidence that the PRC had actually made a huge investment in logistics and air to air refuelling (bar the handful of H-6s they have now) to move the entire Flanker fleet vs India *if need* be, your comments could be taken seriously.


Again useless comments. No argument. No data. What's your point?


Of course there was utility to them- they proved you were talking through your hat and speaking nonsense. You have zero understanding of how an airwar is fought and the logistics required. You are posting reams of arguementative BS about how Flankers will miraculaously appear without fuel and logistics. So either post about the investments made to field multiple Flankers in theater or admit you dont have a clue.



did you check the context in which PRC and ROC were compared? I said PRC will hold back the same number of fighters for ROC that India will hold back for Bangladesh? Btw I haven't counted Porkistan yet. There is a concept of theatre...but it works against India not in favor. We need to defend against Pakistan which has started four wars with India. How many wars did PRC and ROC fight? Zero.


India doesnt dream of invading Bangladesh and Bangladeshs military strength is pitiful. PRC otoh has built up exactly to overwhelm ROC and it will safeguard enough units so as to retain a balance vs the ROC. It will not wipe away decades of work over nothing.




Exactly. The line was reopened to replenish the H-6 air frames getting obsolete. Going by your logic all bombers are dead ducks.


Hardly exactly. The line was reopened because they needed a counterpoint to strong defences. And FYI all bombers ARE dead ducks unless air superiority is achieved. Please read up about how and when bombers have been used till date.





There is enough evidence of this. Ignore it at your peril.


No evidence- try your scaremongering elsewhere.


PRC isn't making any claims. 400+100 is a reality. On what basis are you saying it is a "hyberbole"?


Of course it is hyperbole. First you claimed 400, then backtracked when pointed out only 250 odd Flankers were available to the PLAAF of different flavours (not even bringing in serviceability here of the older airframes) and now you are raising 125-150 odd new Flankers in three years time, which even the most rabid Chinese jingoist would demur from.


No you said 250 is a exaggeration by PRC. Now you agreeing to 272 number as of 2007 based on which site - sinodefence! Again lost of gas for no facts or reference. You said J-10 isn't ready. Then you agreed to 70 J-10 being inducted! You talk about serviceability for PRC, and what's the number of IAF?


Your nonsense knows no limits- try honesty for a change, it will be refreshing. I said your claims of 400 Flankers are an utter exaggeration, and so they were. You should be ashamed of posting such tosh, but you obviously lack the moral fiber to even admit your mistake. Your Sinodefence site posts maximal figures AND even there the numbers dont add upto 400 but 250 odd- in case you have issues with the English language, odd means a rounded figure approaching the number mentioned!! I talk about serviceability for the PRC because I know they fudge and hide figures - even so I even gave them the benefit of the doubt and assumed a high 70% figure overall.



Again PRC has better SAM coverage. But walla they will not be in a position to bring some of that coverage to their war. Are they that dumb?


Learn how to read into context. You are the one who was scaremongering about India getting bombed- all of North India you said! Who cares if the PRC has better SAM coverage to protect Beijing as long as we dont go there.


What's the corrective action? How many divisions can you spare for PRC if Pakistan decides to play its part?


And what does an Indian division bring to the fight vs a PRC unit?

If you just woke up from your slumber check out US military assesment to Congress. You will know why.


Ah, so the US militarys filibustering to get more funds is now grounds for fear. Grow up, will you.




The question is at what rate. No new tube artillery acquisition in a decade. IAF has 33 squadrons against sanctioned strength of 45!


No tube arty acquisition, yes- but Pinaka acquisition- 5 regiments worth, with further orders for the next five year plan. Smerch acquisition- 4/5 regiments worth. BM-21s with new LRARs purchased - quite a substantial inventory to boot.Searcher acquisition- for SATA and Herons as well. LOROS, BFSR and sensors in the hundreds. 180 Soltam tube arty upgrades to 155mm guns.
Could you please check your facts? This is not even accounting for the fact that India plans to n/w all its arty in the coming years, which according to the IA should lead to a 10X increase in effectiveness over current.


Coming years...when?


What a pathetically lame response, so all you could nitpick out of the above - which basically proves you were talking absolute trash, is "Coming years, when". The more important point being that Indias arty situation is nowhere as grim as you painted it out to be.
Coming to when, the ACCS data is openly available- find it yourself.

Second, IAFs sanctioned strength is 39.5 combat squadrons. And in capability, the IAF is replacing earlier aircraft with far more capable ones.

Your statements dont even take into account the IAFs growing reliance and inventory of PGMs, both Russian and others, and its better EW systems and its ability to conduct both day and night strikes.


Check out the NDTV program with Bharat Rakshak on air force raising day. There is a senior officer of IAF talks about how safe they feel with what they got!


It is the job of the AF to ask for more. It is the job of adults to understand what is being said and why, and not scaremonger.


So we just need to trust PRC that it will not go for "puran vijay" on India. Is that it? Just trust PRC? Trust doesn't work. PRC one day will seize the opportunity.


Trust is different from jumping to conclusions that they'll attack us tomorrow.

Some amount of concern is essential. But you are taking it to the next level. India is seeking to plug its gaps with some effort, detailing them would be beyond this thread but its not like the IAF and India have slept off at the wheel.


After all that talk you admitted it. You didn't say even if we don't trust PRC it doesn't matter. You instead still basing it on good wishes of PRC :!:


Your self gratification amuses me, but your learning comprehension leaves a lot to be desired. In plain English, concern is good- useless panic and hyperbole (the kind you have indulged in) is worthy of contempt.

And kindly stop with the fevered one line replies- not only are they rude, your referring to the chinese as chinks and chinkland whatever is downright racist.
Last edited by JCage on 07 Feb 2008 02:07, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby hnair » 06 Feb 2008 23:50

alokgupt wrote:Do you see any insurgency in Tibet? How about Maoists and Naxals in India?


Who me? Yes, I do. Not just in Tibet. The Three Gorge evacuation, the recent snow storms, the SARS episodes, the food riots in the countryside, the toxic rape of environment for helping Walmart keep prices down etc.

And what is this "let us follow the chinese" mindset? By any standards, they are not a successful modern nation state. Single minded devotion to generating huge wealth, public opinion be damned? Yes. Amassing weapons without a purpose? Yes. But then why should we follow them and stoke insurgencies? We should help the people of China realize their leadership's flaws and make the ordinary people more influential in the state policies like any half decent state. And one that happens, like any vibrant state with self actualized people, there will be umpteen insurgencies and difference of opinions to solve for them too. May be, just maybe, some Tibetans might be ready to have the Dalai as the Chief Minister of Tibet. But right now, they are all silent insurgents, a far more potent threat than any RDX vested abdul.

Based on my vast experience with fortune cookies, Confucius or those kooky elders never said they should hang the ugly mug of a mass murderer at Tianenmen square for eternity.

Maos and Naxals in India is a bigger project and though China figures in the scheme of things, there might be other murkier players too.

Gwadar is unlikely to stay out of action in next Indo-China conflict.


Gwadar will stay out of action, one way or the other. Check out what happened at sea during the kargil war. Pak elite knows that such an escalation will not be pleasant. Particularly with the fast fading Kidwai line and fun with Cold Starts.

I completely agree. But I don't there is a burning consensus among Indians about doing this.


Much as we like to poke fun of them, IFS is run by professionals who are picked after one of the toughest selection process in the world. They are aware of the contemporary consensus of the Indian Establishment from day one of their service. And there was always a consensus at both public and policy maker levels on China. Unlike amateurish Chinese officials with PLA backgrounds (have you watched their spokesman sputter after ABV announced Pokhran II?) or under-hung Paki jernails, these gents are circumspect in public.

Chinese threat (or rather their posturing as a "threat") needs to be resolved in the long term by addressing their people's aspirations, which have so far been brutally suppressed by West-supported regimes. Their military threat is manageable, if you go beyond counting their bayonets that is on parade.

In fact to influence their people, I feel we need more NKKs (NathuLa Kandle Kisser types) and less WKKs. What we seem to have right now are a lot of Delhi based leftist WKKs, who are influenced by the chinese regime's propaganda. We need a more neutral bunch of Indians who would like to make contact with their citizens. 8)

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Postby Surya » 07 Feb 2008 00:20

alok

Lets assume that the Chinese are going to use Gwadar.

So tell me what they will bring in there.

Then lets see if I have a counter for it. Remeber the pukes are not going to stop me from reaching Gwadar plus the US is not going to allow China an easy access any more than they were going to allow the Soviet Union


Regarding airfields in Tibet.

Calculate the logistics of what needs to be supplied and check your supply line

Who has greater abilityt to hit that supply line?

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Postby Raymond » 07 Feb 2008 00:41

Despite all the cr*p thats going around with the various acquisition programmes I think we are going along in the correct path atleast.About the airwar part I totally think we can totally dominate PLAAF offensive with 120-125 MKIs , 60-70 mrcas with awacs , EW assets ,refuellers and a good SAM network to fall back upon.
The small problem is if something breaks out along the western line.For that I need upgraded M2Ks and Mig-29s with a few sqdns of mrca and MKis thrown in.The LCA will have to make up the numbers both east and west.

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Postby ramana » 07 Feb 2008 00:42

hnair, Could you please post your views in the India-China new prespectives thread in the Strat forum? Very good and fresh prespective.

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Postby JCage » 07 Feb 2008 01:00

Raymond, if a few prudent decisions are made, say getting two new squadrons of the MRCA as interim till production picks up, your orbat could well be correct.

I used to wonder why the IAF pushed HAL so hard on the MKI, so that the number of stage 4 MKIs (from local raw materials) was cut drastically, but its alls about production rates. The IAF should have recieved some 15 of its K replacements last year and the plan is to build approx a squadron till year and get the 40 new ordered MKIs in, by 2011.

Add a couple of interim squadrons of the MRCA from the supplier stocks, and your estimate of numbers would be true.

Even the Mirage 2000 upgrade can be completed in a couple of years time, once the IAF is reasonably sure that it has a large MKI fleet to punch with. The MiG-29 should be likewise. Normally, serviceability drops a bit post upgrade to some entirely new avionics as spares are built up etc, but in this case we might actually see improvement as all these days we have been struggling with the MiG-29 and even Mirage spares for the older stuff will become hard to come by half a decade from now.

They should now beef up their SAMs with as many Akash units as possible (against low strikers) and actually place an order for 2 follow on Phalcons now itself, along with some 6 more refuellers.
In addition, every IAF aircraft should get towed decoys, MAWS and SPJs.

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Postby Raymond » 07 Feb 2008 01:19

JC,
well I wasnt actually trying to get all of that by 2010 and such specific timeframes because that approach doesnt serve much purpose.
I was making an example case that even in 2020 those numbers will be valid for defending our northeast provided that the difference in numbers donot increase alarmingly and we keep the technological edge by means of getting small upgrades to our existing fleet here and there.

Thats why I think its going to be more and more difficult for the Chinese as time goes along.We are catching on with a lot of stuff and the odds are much better in our favour now than say in year 2000.

The chinese can bring on J-12/13/14 later but PAKFA is also in the pipeline now.It only serves to make things more interesting :twisted: , much more interesting than say a shooting war where MKIs and Bisons have to shoot down hordes of obsolete Russian copied strike aircrafts which I think could be a good possibility now.

I say it is a very difficult job to take on a well organised defensive force consisting of good fighters working in conjunction with a good SAM network even if you are numerically superior and/or is even technically equal/slightly better.That is the exact problem the US will face if it goes to capture Beijing and the Chinese if they attack India(at least the air part).

Though the correct attiutude should be to keep improving as there is no end to improving oneself.

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Postby JCage » 07 Feb 2008 01:43

Yeah I agree timeframes are somewhat arbitrary. I was just pointing out though that despite all the chest beating and wailing indulged in by some types from time to time, the IAF is doing what it can to expedite things and it is being assisted in this endeavour. The 40 MKI order for instance was a good step in this direction. And unlike the PLAAFs Flankers, each of our MKIs is fully A2G capable and truly multirole.

And till date, we havent had a single Flanker lost. They - depending on the source, have pranged anywhere near a squadrons worth already in a decades worth of use. Their older SKs must be due anytime for an engine replacement and refurbishment as well. These all appear trivial but do matter.

And for once, due attention is being paid to warstocks, For eg, how many of us knew that some 1650 R-77s have been ordered? Actual numbers of KAB series etc are also not out - but apparently there are enough that Bisons used KAB-500s in a recent FPD at Pokhran! I remember in the "good old days" when every PGM was hoarded as if it were manna from heaven!

And the PRC frankly is its own worst enemy, by drumming up its own abilities, it has kicked India into action. Even ROC is now asking for 66 extra F-16s, whereas Korea has purchased a few squadrons of F-15s and Japan is going to undertake (per reports) a massive refurbishment of its F-15 fleet and AWACs.

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Postby Surya » 07 Feb 2008 02:33

how long does anyone expect Gwadar to remain unmolested???

It can be reaced by SUs, refuelled a\c, LACMs.

The supply lines stretch through hostile territory.

The only issue I see is that in the near future it will be the AF which has the most weapons to deal with Gwadar. That could explain the INs problem.

And I am not even talking about uncle yet.

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Postby JCage » 07 Feb 2008 02:38

Vivek K wrote:
Raymond wrote:Okay we don’t have the exact location of newly constructed Chinese strips but I think its fair to assume that they are not that close to the border as ours.


Raymond, with so many satellites in space, how come we will not know the exact location of new Chinese Strips?

Do we have any Tibetans (covert or overt) in the Indian Army? IIRC there were some Tibetan Commandos etc that did well in 62.

Our AD gaps must be removed and all DPSAs upgraded (Jags 150 plus and Mig-27s 50 - 110) to be made more lethal.

One crucial element to fight against China may be to have the Pakis busy with domestic disturbance. To that extent I hope that the appropriate agencies are working dilligently. If assets could be removed from the west to the East, that would be a great help.


Vivek, yes there are folks in the Army trained in specific for the PRC.

Coming to DPSAs- the Jaguars are being upgraded en masse, and the 37 new Jaguars that were orderd (20+17) are all DARIN-II standard, apart from another 40 which have been upgraded. 40 MiG-27s have also been upgraded. These are reasonable numbers given that the older Jags and MiG-27s will also be phased out. Apart from these, there are 120 odd MiG-21 Bisons which are perfectly capable of both point defense and PGM strike over the tactical battle area.
And a Flanker squadrons worth is being added every year. In fact more, if we consider the 18 trade ins plus the 40 new Flankers ordered.
Some 19 new radars have been ordered from Elta as well, and another 19 odd have been tendered specifically for the PRC theater as gapfillers.


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