China Military Watch

rohitvats
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Postby rohitvats » 08 Feb 2008 09:41

In eastern sector we have about eight divisions of troops deployed within 300-400km of Arunachal and Sikkim border. In comparision China has at maximum two divisions deployed close to Arunachal or Sikkim borde


Alok, and which might these 8 Divisons be?

But Chinese expeditionary forces include three airborne divisions, two amphibious infantry divisions and two marine brigades. So possible deploy these expeditionary forces relatively quickly.


What is the ORBAT of these troops and their capabilities wrt to the terrain and operations under consideration?

In Arunachal and portions of Sikkim China has enough force to pull a Kargil and then hold the ground till reinforcements arrive. This has to be on top of list of threats for MOD.


Again, the ORBAT of Chinese forces please and what exactly do you mean when you say they can pull "kargil"?

In Uttranchal, Himachal, and Ladakh they can possibly bring a couple of divisions and surprise India. But Indian deployment in this sector is much more dense
.

How "dense" is Indian deployment and which are the formations involved from our side? How will the chinese "surprise" India? Rapid Deployment Capability?Deception?

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Postby Rahul Shukla » 08 Feb 2008 12:09

Ok,

Here's a wiki page listing the names of all chinese airbases by military districts: clicky

And here is the bestest arrangement to study PLAAF airbases in all of China. Click here and the link opens up a Google page showing all PLAAF bases in all military districts. Then click on the link titled 'View In Google Earth' on the top RHS (just top & left of 'Maps') and you're all set...

We need to study the altitude of the airbase to determine the approximate air density, length of runways to determine which aircraft can use the airbase, distance of the airbase from the Indian border, and most importantly the weather patterns in the area (s) to determine the availability window of the airfields for offensive/defensive operations. Also need to find the railway tracks. Search around Lhasa and track them...

My eyes are as red as a vampire. I've been looking all over the www for this type of interactive map for over 2 days. And I found the darn thing at Wikipedia of all places... :oops:

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Postby Sanku » 08 Feb 2008 12:21

alokgupt wrote:You include all scenarios except the one which is most relevant - "We may not be ready for a fight with China".


Look boss you are parroting the same line over and over again; that does not make it true.

What you need to think is outside the narrow sphere that you have boxed yourself in.

After all you were the one saying ALL possibilities should be considered; but now you don't want to do exactly that. Why?

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Postby Sanku » 08 Feb 2008 12:42

alokgupt wrote:1) There is nothing more significant than building capability to win the war with China and Pakistan. There is positive impact of having overwhelming military capability on internal security as well as external sponsors will be more careful.


To say that nothing can happen without the need to be secure is obviously obvious; captain obvious. The question is not yes or no; but how much and at what cost.

2) I have asking for three things: a) We don't have enough fighters. We need 60 squadrons.


So you ask; I ask that we need the death star. What value is your asking; who are you to ask. Whats your credibility.

Why are Air Chiefs; BKs and think tanks not asking for the same? Any idea. Are they all stupid and you are the only one who sees the truth?

Then what kind of squardens we need; do we need 60 Squardons of raptors? Why? why not?

c) We need build 600-1000 AGNI 3. I hope once AGNI 3+ is tested and final we do raise to mass produce it.


Look boss; there is a difference between intellectual masturbation and discussing reality.

When you say we NEED this -- you also need to say why. For example we can look up what BK writes and the numbers he talks of.

. So far the rate has been less than sufficient.


Again a throw away assertion; back it up with other proofs.

We cannot make the same mistake of outsourcing our defence to America.


And who exactly said that? And is this 71? Is India == Pak? Are the situations same? What nonsense is this?

4) China will commit all their forces to which ever war they fight. It is naive to assume PRC military will start the war without knowing how to win it. So we got to be ready for this.


Boss; why didn't they do that in 62? And if PRC are supermen who start every war only when they can win; they should not have been beaten with Vietnam before?

And they will start a war to win; but thats not special about PRC; everyone starts a war thinking they will win. Do you know a single country starting a war thinking they will lose? What kind of 2nd grade logic is this?

Secondly every one commits all the forces they can; however logistics and other threat perception keeps things from less than 100% in real life. So the question is what they really CAN of the 100%. That you have no knowledge of.

Thirdly what is winning? How exactly does China define winning? If at the end of war 2 Chinese are alive and no Indian is that win? Is that what they want?

What are Chinese goals in a war with India? What would they want? Why? At what price? You have to discuss all the aspects before making a blanket statement.

Please grow; pretty please. You have been spoiling the thread with fairly inane set of posts which have no data (or ex termly questionable ones) and exterme hyper polations.

No one is saying that a war is not what we should prepare for -- the question is what is the kind we should prepare for -- what will be the goals the cost and the objectives.

There is a difference between us and the Pakis Alok; when will you learn?

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Postby JCage » 08 Feb 2008 14:34

Rahul Shukla wrote:Ok,

Here's a wiki page listing the names of all chinese airbases by military districts: clicky

And here is the bestest arrangement to study PLAAF airbases in all of China. Click here and the link opens up a Google page showing all PLAAF bases in all military districts. Then click on the link titled 'View In Google Earth' on the top RHS (just top & left of 'Maps') and you're all set...

We need to study the altitude of the airbase to determine the approximate air density, length of runways to determine which aircraft can use the airbase, distance of the airbase from the Indian border, and most importantly the weather patterns in the area (s) to determine the availability window of the airfields for offensive/defensive operations. Also need to find the railway tracks. Search around Lhasa and track them...

My eyes are as red as a vampire. I've been looking all over the www for this type of interactive map for over 2 days. And I found the darn thing at Wikipedia of all places... :oops:


And thank you for your effort.

It is this kind of legwork that needs to accompany statements instead of copy pasted paras from other websites. By past experience, the authors of those articles are oftne woefully underinformed themselves but their articles are then quoted as gospel.

If you have a mail id, please share it and we can discuss the above, if you wish to take this further. But I'd rather it is offline.

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Postby alokgupt » 08 Feb 2008 18:08

alokgupt wrote:Tibet air fields based on http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-PLA-AFBs.html.

Lhasa Gonggar doesn't show up so but it is just next to Shigatse AB.

This is exactly what was posted before. The link to aurairpower above also gives the length of each runway.

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Postby alokgupt » 08 Feb 2008 18:19

rohitvats wrote:
In eastern sector we have about eight divisions of troops deployed within 300-400km of Arunachal and Sikkim border. In comparision China has at maximum two divisions deployed close to Arunachal or Sikkim borde


Alok, and which might these 8 Divisons be?


Rohit all info is from globalsecurity and Pentagon's ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... astcom.htm

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/dod-2007.pdf

If you have better sources post the links.

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Postby alokgupt » 08 Feb 2008 18:26

China unhappy with PM's visit to Arunachal

http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/st ... 28:00%20PM

NDTV Correspondent
Friday, February 8, 2008 (New Delhi)
China has verbally protested against Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Arunachal Pradesh last month.

NDTV has received reports to the effect that a verbal protest was lodged in Beijing on Friday.

Meanwhile, sources in the government say that they are not surprised, since China lays claim to the Indian state.

The Chinese are also upset that the PM referred to the state as 'our land of the rising sun' on his maiden trip in the month of January.

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Postby ramana » 08 Feb 2008 20:55

Alokgupt, Your thesis from all your posts in this thread is "India is not ready to fight PLA even if attacked". This flies in face of reason for the Indian armed forces have been preparing since November 20, 1962 for this eventuallity. They have planned, gamed and exercised it numerous times. I know you want force modernisation and augmentation but you wont get many supporters for your POV when you go about stating your thesis. So get of that incorrect thesis. TSP is pinprick and Raksha Mantralaya knows where the threat is nad has been preparing for it.

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Postby alokgupt » 08 Feb 2008 21:09

ramana wrote:Alokgupt, Your thesis from all your posts in this thread is "India is not ready to fight PLA even if attacked". This flies in face of reason for the Indian armed forces have been preparing since November 20, 1962 for this eventuallity. They have planned, gamed and exercised it numerous times. I know you want force modernisation and augmentation but you wont get many supporters for your POV when you go about stating your thesis. So get of that incorrect thesis. TSP is pinprick and Raksha Mantralaya knows where the threat is nad has been preparing for it.


Ramana, I understand India's armed forces aren't what they used to be in 1962. Our capabilities have literally multipled many times. But so has Chinese capabilities.

I also agree that Raksha Mantralaya knows that the real threat is from PRC. An example of the preparation nuke tests of 1998 and authorization for development of AGNI 3. But what worries me is the pace of modernization of MOD vs that of PRC.

I am not so sure we have planned, gamed, and exercised to deal with China (I will be happy to be proven wrong). Of all the large scale exercises that I have tracked were held in Rajasthan/ Punjab. This is hardly the place to prepare for China. I think MOD was holding on to the thesis that China hasn't any substantial infantry presence in Tibet. So why open the pandora's box by doing things which will force China to react and react they sure will. This demonstrates the state our preparedness for China: "The Chinese have built all-weather motorable roads on their side of the border. In contrast, only three Indian posts in Arunachal Pradesh are accessible by road, the remainder can only be reached by foot patrols."

So while I see a few loud supporters claiming that India is ready to Chinese offensive, I don't see facts in line with that claim especially in face of rapid strides by China military presence in Tibet. We will be in dire state if China undertakes a full scale offensive and Pakistan chooses to support its ally even by just deploying all their forces on the border with India and threatening an attack. The only thing I have heard about such a scenario is that it is as probable as "comet strike on earth". I simply disagree with that. Also even if this scenario may not come true just the threat of such a scenario LIMITS GOI in reacting to PRC's creeping aggression on borders with India.
Last edited by alokgupt on 08 Feb 2008 21:23, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby ranganathan » 08 Feb 2008 21:22

India needs to start asserting Aksai-chin and Tibet at international foras. Chinks only understand force. So force they should experience.

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Postby svinayak » 08 Feb 2008 21:36

ranganathan wrote:India needs to start asserting Aksai-chin and Tibet at international foras. Chinks only understand force. So force they should experience.

ANy claim on Arunachal P should follow with claim on Tibet.
This has to start now since China will be occupied with other things for few years.

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Postby alokgupt » 08 Feb 2008 21:40

ranganathan wrote:India needs to start asserting Aksai-chin and Tibet at international foras. Chinks only understand force. So force they should experience.


We can do many things to make them understand things:

1) Impose 30% security duty on all imports from China and make those funds available to MOD. Also pass a law requiring all Chinese investments in India requiring security certification.
2) Have Dalai Lama as state guest during Republic day parade. Also sign a free trade agreement and visa protocol on Tibet with Dalai Lama.
3) Ask Foreign Minister to take a trip to Taiwan and sign free trade and security agreement.
4) Put nuclear weapons on a long range bomber and have it take constant flights in international waters along North China sea. Place an order for 600 AGNI 3 with eventual goal to upgrade them to AGNI 3++.
5) Setup a mountain strike corp with at least six divisions (some existing plus 4 new).
6) Stand and challenge any Chinese forces intruding into India's side of the border. Send army to deploy along the border with PRC as a signal.

But before we do any of this we need to be absolutely sure that we can win any fight with PRC (with Pak forces at least threatening an attack on western border) in Tibet.

When I see GOI taking up a meak response to 300 incursions by Chinese forces into India, it wonder why is GOI so worried about sending a stronger signal. We do that all the time to Pakistan. We shoot and kill anyone who intrudes in Kashmir from Pakistani side. I give no credence to any suggestions that MMS is not capable of sending a stronger signal due to political compulsions. So the only thing that explains GOI response is that govt has some strategic compulsion (i.e. military weakness) which forces them to hold back a strong response.
Last edited by alokgupt on 08 Feb 2008 22:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Sanku » 08 Feb 2008 21:40

alokgupt wrote:
I am not so sure we have planned, gamed, and exercised to deal with China (I will be happy to be proven wrong).



What kind of PROOF would you need. I "know" for a fact that we have planned; gamed and exercised to deal with China. Some hints of that are the fact that Mig 25 have repeatedly photographed China. APCs and T 72 have been moved to Ladakh area and have exercised there. (I believe there are even photos on BR)

Have you heard of operation Chequerboard?

Of all the large scale exercises that I have tracked were held in Rajasthan/ Punjab. This is hardly the place to prepare for China.


Many exercises held in that area are not Country specific exercise or even terrain specific ones. In some case they are general military exercises; period.

I think MOD was holding on to the thesis that China hasn't any substantial infantry presence in Tibet.


Boss if you can claim to know more on the basis of some vauge open source resource; MoD which has access to Satellite pics and all manners of data; why will they hold on to that thesis?

It may be that MoD does not make a large hue and cry for the reasons you mention.

So why open the pandora's box by doing things which will force China to react and react they sure will.


What will cause China to react? Indian preparation? Or the fact that India makes noise about it?

This demonstrates the state our preparedness for China: "The Chinese have built all-weather motorable roads on their side of the border. In contrast, only three Indian posts in Arunachal Pradesh are accessible by road, the remainder can only be reached by foot patrols."


Look boss you are the sort who will look at five miles of area and conclude that the earth is flat.

The reason why roads were not built in the area earlier was because of IA doctrine of not providing logistics on invading Chinese army. They wanted to use the terrain to their advantage since they expected that better logistics would help superior forces.

The fact that that stand has changed now means that IA is not looking for a defensive battle but a offensive one.

Please refer to what Ramana said about change in tatics post Gen Sundarji (in the China new dir thread) think a while what that means.


Also even if this scenario may not come true just the threat of such a scenario LIMITS GOI in reacting to PRC's creeping aggression on borders with India.


Bull shit; rapid strides; dire straits are hollow words without any basis and empty pompousness.

And so does your statement that LIMITS GoI in reacting to creeping agression. This is the same two bit logic that was used by Mush in Kargil; and we know where Kargil went.

A creeping agression without a full fledged readiness for war would give chinese exactly what it gave Indians in 62 with the forward post policy and the Pakis in Kargil.

There is no threat build up to war levels on the border; and if the Chinese do a Sumdrong Chu; they are asking for their butts to be kicked.

After all Dr Singh wont be around forever with Karat pulling strings will he.
Last edited by Sanku on 08 Feb 2008 21:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Malay » 08 Feb 2008 21:42

That cannot be done. We have already given up the claim of Tibet. India cannot revert on its statements. China could do the same on Sikkim then in return.

We can pressure them in different ways, call Dalai Lama to give speeches in Delhi, parliament, etc, etc.

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Postby Sanku » 08 Feb 2008 21:46

alokgupt wrote:
ranganathan wrote:India needs to start asserting Aksai-chin and Tibet at international foras. Chinks only understand force. So force they should experience.


We can do many things to make them understand things:

rant on H&D......


Can you please out line what exactly is the purpose of this H&D exercise as you mention? Further what does winning any war with China mean?

So there have been incursions; Chinese came in and ran out. Probably shaking the cages of Indians so far none have been confirmed by IA.

Secondly if you dont like MMS fine. Do be aware that he is not likely to last for more that a year.

What then?

What is the point of this stupid rant? The chinese have run around like headless chicken; why should we do them a favor and behave like one too.

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Postby JCage » 08 Feb 2008 21:46

alokgupt wrote:
ramana wrote:Alokgupt, Your thesis from all your posts in this thread is "India is not ready to fight PLA even if attacked". This flies in face of reason for the Indian armed forces have been preparing since November 20, 1962 for this eventuallity. They have planned, gamed and exercised it numerous times. I know you want force modernisation and augmentation but you wont get many supporters for your POV when you go about stating your thesis. So get of that incorrect thesis. TSP is pinprick and Raksha Mantralaya knows where the threat is nad has been preparing for it.


Ramana, I understand India's armed forces aren't what they used to be in 1962. Our capabilities have literally multipled many times. But so has Chinese capabilities.

I also agree that Raksha Mantralaya knows that the real threat is from PRC. An example of the preparation nuke tests of 1998 and authorization for development of AGNI 3. But what worries me is the pace of modernization of MOD vs that of PRC.

I am not so sure we have planned, gamed, and exercised to deal with China (I will be happy to be proven wrong). Of all the large scale exercises that I have tracked were held in Rajasthan/ Punjab. This is hardly the place to prepare for China. I think MOD was holding on to the thesis that China hasn't any substantial infantry presence in Tibet. So why open the pandora's box by doing things which will force China to react and react they sure will. This demonstrates the state our preparedness for China: "The Chinese have built all-weather motorable roads on their side of the border. In contrast, only three Indian posts in Arunachal Pradesh are accessible by road, the remainder can only be reached by foot patrols."

So while I see a few loud supporters claiming that India is ready to Chinese offensive, I don't see facts in line with that claim especially in face of rapid strides by China military presence in Tibet. We will be in dire state if China undertakes a full scale offensive and Pakistan chooses to support its ally even by just deploying all their forces on the border with India and threatening an attack. The only thing I have heard about such a scenario is that it is as probable as "comet strike on earth". I simply disagree with that. Also even if this scenario may not come true just the threat of such a scenario LIMITS GOI in reacting to PRC's creeping aggression on borders with India.


The reason why you dont see them is because the GOI and Army dont trumpet them. But if you speak to the services you will get a very different idea, both in terms of equipment and training activities. With respect to the first, for instance- who received the first Tavors in India? Were they the PARA SF or the NSG? No. Even items like LOROS and HHTI which are always in the news for the actions on the LC, are also present at the Indo-China border- they just dont grab headlines. Check out where some of the Indian Army's most ambitious networking and comms upgrades were kicked off. Not in formations fielded against Pak.

The Indian Army & GOI consciously follow a pattern of minimizing attention grabbing headlines viz PRC.

The one person to break this omerta was GF who famously called China "enemy #1" - he took back his words soon after. Was he a coward? Hardly. It pays to build up your strength with minimal braggadacio.

All these days DRDO for instance kept its mouth shut about what it had achieved, the media attacks have forced it to respond. This is not necessarily a good thing. Same thing with the Army- we talk more about Pakistan since it is relatively a manageable threat and a bit of saber rattling doesnt matter. With China, it does. India telling everyone about what it is doing with the PRC is akin to asking the PRC to spend more to counter India. We dont work that way, its counter productive.
Even the ABM- is there one DRDO statement about China? Or a GOI one? No. But it will affect them as well. But no overt statements about China being brought into the picture at all. So dont go by public claims alone. India is not hungry for saving "face"- thats not how we work.

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Postby alokgupt » 08 Feb 2008 21:49

Sanku wrote:What will cause China to react? Indian preparation? Or the fact that India makes noise about it?


Both. But preparations more than posturing. PRC will have enough intelligence of its own to be able to distinguish between the two.

Look boss you are the sort who will look at five miles of area and conclude that the earth is flat.


Sanku, we wasted enough of this thread on personal attacks. So stay of them.

And so does your statement that LIMITS GoI in reacting to creeping agression. This is the same two bit logic that was used by Mush in Kargil; and we know where Kargil went.

A creeping agression without a full fledged readiness for war would give chinese exactly what it gave Indians in 62 with the forward post policy and the Pakis in Kargil.

There is no threat build up to war levels on the border; and if the Chinese do a Sumdrong Chu; they are asking for their butts to be kicked.



After all Dr Singh wont be around forever with Karat pulling strings will he.


I disagree. Dr Singh is the first PM I have seen authorize massive road development in Arunachal and along PRC border. He now has authorized 2 mountain stike divisions. So while Karat can pull all the strings he wants MMS has his way of getting things done.

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Postby JCage » 08 Feb 2008 21:51

ranganathan wrote:India needs to start asserting Aksai-chin and Tibet at international foras. Chinks only understand force. So force they should experience.


Does China bring up AP and other issues in international fora? No. Why should we. So they want to talk and act obnoxious in localized conversations. We have no dearth of experts at talkathons. The GOI is an expert at conducting gruelling talkathons where the minutae of the fourth subdivision of the third summary of the fifth para are discussed to the last comma. Use them.

Please understand- it is in Chinas interest to provoke a conflict now. Not in ours. We are but now establishing a broad based economic structure that with another decades worth of work will rival Chinas and even outstrip some of its key sectors. This economic growth must proceed unchallenged whilst it is supported by a robust military arm which grows apace to prevent China from taking the initiative.

So talk, talk, talk- and lull China into sleep. When they wake up, we will have moved on and their ambitions of waging war against India will be firmly wet dreams. If they have Sun Tzu we have Chanakya - not that we read him much, but since we are constantly accused of being Chanakyan, we might as well try similar stunts.

The only ones who can throw a spanner into the above are the DDM, they live for external validation and spare no attempt in claiming that India is now ahead of China in one thing or the other. There is no need for this. If there is one thing the Chinese cannot stand, it is loss of face. The 1962 conflict was also provoked in part by Maos inferiority complex viz Nehru whom he thought was taking the mindspace as the de facto leader of Asia. If China feels that its H&D is under threat, it will attack. In contrast, there should be constant articles on how China and India complement each other, but with additional points about how each of Chinas strengths is also being matched by India and which end with some gratuitious stuff about how both ancient civilizations can work together etc. This kind of stuff is necessary. Talk of becoming an US ally, intemperate talk of now being better than China because some Indian firm got a new product out is counterproductive.

A closed society like China cannot understand that the Indian media has its own sensationalist dynamic. They take comments in mainstream Indian papers to be reflective of GOIs attitudes. And they cannot stand any loss of face. Note how the EP3 incident was resolved, they buckled down under pressure sure, but the US didnt play it up either. Face is all to them. The Pakistanis- are quite like them in this respect.
Last edited by JCage on 08 Feb 2008 21:58, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Sanku » 08 Feb 2008 21:57

alokgupt wrote:Both. But preparations more than posturing. PRC will have enough intelligence of its own to be able to distinguish between the two.


And you think China will not do what it wants independent of Indian prepartions anyway? :roll:

So if you see you are actually advocating MoD to do a less as possible? :rotfl: you are confused you know.

On one hand you think GoI knows nothing of China; at the same time China knows all about GoI.

Other than the fact that you are a scardy cat; why do you think the above is true?

Sanku, we wasted enough of this thread on personal attacks. So stay of them.


Not a personal attack its an analogy; I dont expect you to understand the difference.

In anycase what the thread is really wasted with is your running around in circle repeating the same thing over and over again without listening to what others are saying.

I disagree. Dr Singh is the first PM I have seen authorize massive road development in Arunachal and along PRC border. He now has authorized 2 mountain stike divisions. So while Karat can pull all the strings he wants MMS has his way of getting things done.


Uhh one hand you say GoI is weak on the second you say its strong? How can both be the case?

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Postby alokgupt » 08 Feb 2008 21:59

Sanku wrote:So there have been incursions; Chinese came in and ran out. Probably shaking the cages of Indians so far none have been confirmed by IA.


Do me a favor...read the India Today article fully. No they didn't just came and ran out. They also build roads on Indian side. Remind me what triggered the war in Aksai Chin last time? Was it building roads? We shoot or capture anyone who intrudes from either Pakistan or Bangladesh. Why this special approach to China?

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Postby JCage » 08 Feb 2008 21:59

ranganathan wrote:India needs to start asserting Aksai-chin and Tibet at international foras. Chinks only understand force. So force they should experience.


I'd request you not to use terms like Chinks etc. It is construed as racist and portrays BRF in a bad light. Pls use Chicoms if you wish.

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Postby alokgupt » 08 Feb 2008 22:02

Sanku wrote:Not a personal attack its an analogy; I dont expect you to understand the difference.


Here is the thing. Don't reply to my posts. I am not going to reply to yours. The proof of how much I understand is apparent to me in my personal life as will be apparent to you in your personal life. So shall I say drop it.

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Postby JCage » 08 Feb 2008 22:04

alokgupt wrote:
Sanku wrote:So there have been incursions; Chinese came in and ran out. Probably shaking the cages of Indians so far none have been confirmed by IA.


Do me a favor...read the India Today article fully. No they didn't just came and ran out. They also build roads on Indian side. Remind me what triggered the war in Aksai Chin last time? Was it building roads? We shoot or capture anyone who intrudes from either Pakistan or Bangladesh. Why this special approach to China?


Alok, forget India today- read articles about Indias preparedness in the NE vs China - google for visits to IA & NE and trip reports. Reports on creeping incursions et al are partly political. What you have to understand is that the media is used to make GOI take strong measures and a threat is played up, and it works- see Antonys commitment to building infrastructure up. If Antony had done it without claiming India was weaker, what would it have been construed as? Also, how much are we hearing about the number of Sukhois joining the IAF and their capabilities? Or the MRCA RFP?

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Postby Sanku » 08 Feb 2008 22:05

alokgupt wrote:
Do me a favor...read the India Today article fully. No they didn't just came and ran out. They also build roads on Indian side.


So they came in built roads on our side and ran back? Did we say thank you?

Or are they holding on the roads too? Did the IT say that?

What the IT quoted the MP as saying is that China is building roads close to line of control. Not in our area. More roads in Aksai Chin. IA has categorically denied building in our area; they have accepted that Chinese have made incursions.

Do your self a favor read more than IT :rotfl:

Yeah they came in and build roads and we offered them chai-biscuit.

Get over your 62 fixation; people who prepare for the last war lose.

And if by posting that pompous comparison with BeeDee you mean to suggest that "China is a bigger gorilla than BeeDee there fore we are more circumspect" don't bother we know.

The question is not of H&D here; and not even that of territory it is a bigger game; dont play it like a child.

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Postby Sanku » 08 Feb 2008 22:12

alokgupt wrote:
Sanku wrote:Not a personal attack its an analogy; I dont expect you to understand the difference.


Here is the thing. Don't reply to my posts. I am not going to reply to yours. The proof of how much I understand is apparent to me in my personal life as will be apparent to you in your personal life. So shall I say drop it.


Why should you be allowed to run around saying any thing that comes in your head? You have not replied to a single question I raise. You just run around repeating the same thing over and over and over and over.......

I see no reason as to why you should monkey around on BRF; if the admins feel that I am crossing boundaries of civility they will let me know. So far I have not as far as I can see.

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Postby alokgupt » 08 Feb 2008 22:16

JCage wrote:The one person to break this omerta was GF who famously called China "enemy #1" - he took back his words soon after. Was he a coward? Hardly. It pays to build up your strength with minimal braggadacio.


It wasn't braggadacio with GF. It was to set the context of India's nuclear tests. It was a message meant for Pentagon that India and US have a common enemy - China. I think you understand all that but want to clarify for the rest lest they think less of GF.

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Postby Sanku » 08 Feb 2008 22:18

Cross post; this a attempt to get the thread back on track and to sanity.

satya wrote:Am i correct to assume tht PRC's any future military move against India will have two main objectives :

1. Annexation of Tawang Region to justify / legitimise their occupation of Tibet.

2. Degrading India's stature at geo-political level via military action to make US and other players to deal with China only and not to think of using India card .

If pt. 1 is their objective then a military move will happen in in 2010-2012 period ( short term ) as any further delay will only shore up Indian defences .

If pt. 2. is their main objective then PRC's has choice either to go for both objectives in 2010-2012 period or wait out to see if GoI's words really means action on groun and there's a considerable upswing in IA's offensive capability vis PLA .

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Postby mdhoat » 08 Feb 2008 22:18

Acharya wrote:
ranganathan wrote:India needs to start asserting Aksai-chin and Tibet at international foras. Chinks only understand force. So force they should experience.

ANy claim on Arunachal P should follow with claim on Tibet.
This has to start now since China will be occupied with other things for few years.


Acharya what is your reasoning behind saying that China will be occupied with other things for few years. Can you please elaborate on the other things you talking about.

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Postby Sanku » 08 Feb 2008 22:21

alokgupt wrote:It wasn't braggadacio with GF. It was to set the context of India's nuclear tests. It was a message meant for Pentagon that India and US have a common enemy - China. I think you understand all that but want to clarify for the rest lest they think less of GF.


You know Alok you really need to recalibrate your understanding what others understand. What you are saying is quite obvious.

However you don't get what JC is saying; what he said that statements of the affect that China is enemy number one is made in rarest of rare cases and for a reason.

Thats why GoI is silent mostly.

Kapiche?

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Postby alokgupt » 08 Feb 2008 22:24

Nighttime strikes (although maritime):
Improvements to the FB-7 fighter program will enable this older aircraft to perform nighttime maritime strike operations and use improved weapons such as the Kh-31P (AS-17) antiradiation missile and KAB-500 laser-guided munitions.

SEAD:
The PLA has imported Israeli-made HARPY UCAVs and Russian-made antiradiation missiles, and is developing an anti-radiation missile based on the Russian Kh-31P (AS-17) known domestically as the YJ-91.

Artillery:
The PLA is deploying the A-100 300 mm multiple rocket launcher (MRL) (100+ km range) and developing the WS-2 400 mm MRL (200 km range). Additional munitions are being fielded or are under development.

Strategy and Training:
In 2006, several independent researchers used a U.S.-based commercial imagery service provider’s archive of overhead imagery to identify several Chinese military-related facilities including a submarine base, a facility that appeared to replicate a contested portion of the Sino-Indian border, and a mock Taiwan airfi eld. Shortly after the publication of these studies, Chinese state-run media in August 2006 claimed that foreign map makers had illegally surveyed Chinese territory and threatened China’s security.

Reconnaissance:
China is deploying advanced imagery, reconnaissance, and Earth resource systems with military applications. Examples include the CBERS-1 and -2 satellites and the Huanjing disaster/environmental monitoring satellite constellation. China is planning eleven satellites in the Huanjing program capable of visible, infrared, multi-spectral, and synthetic aperture radar imaging. In the next decade, Beijing most likely will field radar, ocean surveillance, and high-resolution photoreconnaissance satellites. In the interim, China probably will rely on commercial satellite imagery (e.g., SPOT, LANDSAT, RADARSAT, and Ikonos) to supplement existing coverage. Since 2000, China has launched a number of small satellites, including an oceanographic research, imagery, and environmental research satellites. China has also established dedicated small satellite design and production facilities. China is developing microsatellites – weighing less than 100 kilograms – for remote sensing, and networks of imagery and radar satellites. These developments could allow for a rapid reconstitution or expansion of China’s satellite force in the event of any disruption in coverage.

Navigation:
Navigation and Timing. China has launched four BeiDou satellites with an accuracy of 20 meters over China and surrounding areas. China also uses GPS and GLONASS navigation satellite systems, and has invested in the EU’s Galileo navigation system.

Budget:
On March 4, 2007, Beijing announced a 17.8 percent increase in its military budget, bringing its official defense budget fi gure for 2007 to approximately $45 billion. Substantial growth in China’s defense budget aside, China’s published defense budget does not include large categories of expenditure, including expenses for strategic forces, foreign acquisitions, military related research and development. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) estimates China’s total militaryrelated spending for 2007 could be as much as $85 billion to $125 billion.

Espionage:
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) offi cials have rated China’s aggressive and wide-ranging espionage as the leading threat to U.S. technology. Since 2000, ICE has initiated more than 400 investigations involving the illicit export of U.S. arms and technologies to China.
Last edited by alokgupt on 08 Feb 2008 22:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Sanku » 08 Feb 2008 22:39

mdhoat wrote:Acharya what is your reasoning behind saying that China will be occupied with other things for few years. Can you please elaborate on the other things you talking about.


I would like to take a shot; for the short term they are involved with white washing their image through the 2008 Olympic; fairly similar to Munich in 36.

Further the matters will really come to a head once the current Dalai Lama has to chose a successor; that will be the big thing. I think China will really strike around 2012-14 due to the two reasons.

If it thinks Dalai Lama and been neturalised (the current or next) there will be probably be no war.

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Postby ramana » 08 Feb 2008 22:43

When PRC launched the "four modernizations" and the effect of rising expectations (Tian An Mein Square) the consensus among the Indian security establishment(Armed Forces, Civil Services, Politicians (yes there are peole who follwo these matters but are not vocal except where needed)) was that PRC needs foru to five decades of relative peace and tranquility on the Indian borders and that knowledge can be used to improve the Indian quality of life. They also knew that PRC was carrying on war by proxy through nukes and delivery vehicles to TSP. POKII and the missile program are a response to that.
One reason why border areas were 'neglected' was to provide a difficult terrain for an advancing force. You can dispute this but it was a planning factor. Where the situation has changed is the collpase of FSU that removed an existential threat to PRC and the US economy outsourcing boom in the Clinton years. This has changed the dynamic from five decades to less than that as more money is available to invest in outer China. India has not been sitting quiet all this while as you can see from the forum threads.

Now to address your questions:


Alok wrote:
We can do many things to make them understand things:

1) Impose 30% security duty on all imports from China and make those funds available to MOD. Also pass a law requiring all Chinese investments in India requiring security certification.
2) Have Dalai Lama as state guest during Republic day parade.
3) Ask Foreign Minister to take a trip to Taiwan and sign free trade and security agreement.
4) Put nuclear weapons on a long range bomber and have it take constant flights in international waters along North China sea. Place an order for 600 AGNI 3 with eventual goal to upgrade them to AGNI 3++.
5) Setup a mountain strike corp with at least six divisions (some existing plus 4 new).
6) Stand and challenge any Chinese forces intruding into India's side of the border. Send army to deploy along the border with PRC as a signal.

But before we do any of this we need to be absolutely sure that we can win any fight with PRC (with Pak forces at least threatening an attack on western border) in Tibet.

When I see GOI taking up a meak response to 300 incursions by Chinese forces into India, it wonder why is GOI so worried about sending a stronger signal. We do that all the time to Pakistan. We shoot and kill anyone who intrudes in Kashmir from Pakistani side. I give no credence to any suggestions that MMS is not capable of sending a stronger signal due to political compulsions. So the only thing that explains GOI response is that govt has some strategic compulsion (i.e. military weakness) which forces them to hold back a strong response.


1. The people of India do benefit from the inexpensive goods from PRC. Imposing a duty without building up capability in side India or elsewhere will penalize the Indian consumers. An ancedote from 1986. Taper roller bearings were made by Tata Timken and rest imported. The PRC ones are available for 1/5th of the imported bearings cost but have a life half that of the imports. The bhaiyya talking to me about the problem said he could still buy the PRC stuff as in the long run it was advantageous for him. PRC investments are scrutinized. Also dont forget PRC supplied heavy water to BARC while there were all sorts of three /four letter treaty sanctions.

2. Dalai Lama already lives in Dharmasala which is in India as a state guest. Redundant no?

3. The problem is Taiwan attitude towards India is same as PRC. Taiwan's godfather is uncle and as they have their support dont need other pwoers to help them. Taiwan is a non solution.

4. Nukes on aircraft on constant patrols are a first strike posture. Besides they are destabilizing. BTW check out what are a/c from INS Rajali are doing. The agony will be as needed. Indian economy is not so strong that it can waste resources on hangar queens.

5. There were 10 mountain divs which were for J&K and the Himalayas. Now two more are being raised. Again there is movement underway. The new consct is mtn strike corps. Earlier the emphasis was on mtn divs which did not have air mobility. Thats new and is being worked out.

6. India never did withdraw its forces from the LAC. Its the PRC that had to readjust as partof four modernizations and is intruding and running back. They dont want another Sumdrong Chu. Not good for the market economy they are having.

There is no military weakness. The strategic compulsion is to why give the PRC a chance to legitimize their belligerence. Already in Asia everyone knows their track record of aggression. No point in giving moral cause for the PRC folks.

I am glad you are asking these questions for ther are sure to be others who have them but havent asked.

Indian way is not to appear forceful and aggressive. But not let go wher it matters. Recall Mahatma said he was "bloodied but uncowed" about his SA train experience.


So get knowledgable and share the optimism.

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Postby ranganathan » 08 Feb 2008 22:53

Alok, look up the resolution of CBERS-1 and 2 before calling it a spy satellite or anything remotely capable of doing recon missions. They have a best case resolution of 20 meters compared to Tes, Cartosat-2/2a which have resolution of under 1 meter. CBERS-3/4 will probably have resolution of 5m ood but still way behind modern spy sats.

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Postby Sanku » 08 Feb 2008 23:01

The thing I am personally worried about is not that Chinese will attack; they probably wont.

What I worry about is their messing with Indian river systems originating in Tibet.

That is when we will really need a do or die situation. We must be ready to turn China into a nuclear wasteland if they attempt that since we are going to die anyway.

I wonder if things will really come to that.

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Postby alokgupt » 08 Feb 2008 23:13

Sanku wrote:The thing I am personally worried about is not that Chinese will attack; they probably wont.

What I worry about is their messing with Indian river systems originating in Tibet.

That is when we will really need a do or die situation. We must be ready to turn China into a nuclear wasteland if they attempt that since we are going to die anyway.

I wonder if things will really come to that.


I have spent enough time looking at it watershed atlas of India. China can divert waters from ONLY Brahmputra that also to the extent that originate from within Tibet. Given the demand of water in north east and the amount of population that needs to be supported it is not catastrophic.

http://cgwb.gov.in/watershed/index.html

So no China does not hold our water :!:

Another dirty little secret, India if it wants can divert much the water from Chenab from Pakistan. We however cannot do much about Jhelum and Indus. So we should force Pakistan to peace using just water.

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Postby Sanku » 08 Feb 2008 23:31

alokgupt wrote:I have spent enough time looking at it watershed atlas of India. China can divert waters from ONLY Brahmputra that also to the extent that originate from within Tibet. .


The question is how it will affect the down stream ecology and finally BeeDee; will it cause exodus? Will the Glaciers fed system be affected by activities there?

I am not sure if all the answers are available pat yet. In any case this is a long term worry not for tomorrows game. :lol:

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Postby KarthikSan » 08 Feb 2008 23:31

U.S. military officials wary of China's expanding fleet of submarines


http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/07/asia/subs.php



But in a clear demonstration of the increasing vulnerability of these warships, one of China's new Song-class conventional submarines was able to remain undetected as it shadowed the U.S. carrier Kitty Hawk off the coast of Okinawa, Japan, in late 2006. It then surfaced well within torpedo range.


What does this mean for our carrier battle groups and in general to the Indian Navy. Shouldn't we be countering these threats as well?

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Postby alokgupt » 08 Feb 2008 23:33

Sanku wrote:The question is how it will affect the down stream ecology and finally BeeDee; will it cause exodus? Will the Glaciers fed system be affected by activities there?


It will definitely cause an exodus as will global warming. We need to start building concrete walls along BD because exodus for one reason or another will come.

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Postby satya » 08 Feb 2008 23:40

Any potential future conflict situation between India & PRC needs to be seen through prism of :

1. Geo-political Situation ( including economic PoV)

2. Internal dynamics in both countries

3. Level of military preparedness for both defensive & offensive capabilities .

Once we have a clear understanding of the above 3 points , we can try to understand the clear objectives for such a military move. We can broadly put down these objectives in realms of :

1. Achieving greater leverage in geo-political scenario

2. Achieving a far more advantageous position against enemy forces

3. Diversion of internal dissent or changing power dyanmics within politburo of CCP

4. Gaining natural resources and territory.

Objective in sight , requirement can be laid down ie the conditions ( geo-political & internals ) and equipment & manpower required to achieve the objective of such a campaign .

Last and most critical will be time required to achieve the conditions and manpower and equipments to start such a campaign.The most debatable point here in this thread has been timing. As per some posters timing is near to short term for PRC to initiate such an action with others not so ready.

I hope we try to assess all the issues within this parameter broadly if am not wrong.


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