National Security Review

BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 48
Joined: 08 Mar 1999 12:31

National Security Review

Postby Bharat » 19 Jul 2000 01:40

<U><B>National Security Review.<BR></u><BR>Threats facing India.<BR></B><BR>1.Pakistan<P>2.China<P>3.Internal Disintegration due to religious and seperatist movements.<P><B><B>Pakistan.<BR></B><BR>Nuclear Scenario. <BR>[/b]<BR>It can cause great harm to India by initiating a nuclear attack with missiles and F-16 bombers.The attack would concentrate mainly on Indian metropolitian cities and forward army and Air Force bases.<BR>To attack India Pakistan has the following in it's arsenal.<P><B>1. 2000Km Ghauri and Ghaznavi missile.</B><P>These missiles seem a development on the North Korean Nodong.It can be fair to assume that Pakistan at least has 12-20 missiles in their arsenal.The missile can be fitted with a nuclear warhead .Pakistan's progress in nuclear field is closely assisted by China.Now it seem's that their warhead is small enough to fit the Ghauri and Ghaznavi.But their warhead power seems to be less than 50kt.This is purely based on the fact Pakistan have tested only a fission boosted device.<BR>Now the Ghauri and the Ghaznavi nearly cover all major cities and bases in India.<P><B>2. 350 km Hatf-2 .</B><P>This is a variant of the M-11.Pakistan has nearly 60 of these.This is again a nuclear weapon and it's use in a conventional sense is very small.<BR><B>3. F-16 A.</B><P>Pakistan has about 30 of the Falcon fighter bombers.<P>The nuclear scenario is frightening but in reality the chance that Pakistan initiates a surprise nuclear attack is very small.<P>Pakistan's nuclear strength is used mainly to deter Indian conventional power.In conventional strength India now outstrip Pakistan in quality and quantity.<P>In reply Indian nuclear arsenal has the following.<P><B>1. 250 km Prithvi</B><P>The Prithvi can carry a nuclear warhead and has a CEP of 100 mts.Indian Army is believed to be in possession of more than 30 of these .The final order is of 75 missiles for the army and 25 for the IAF.<P><B>2. Mirage2000 and Su-30 bombers</B><P>These bombers have EW systems and in collabration can penetrate the Pakistani air space to deliver nuclear free fall bombs.<P><B>3. Agni.</B><P>The 2000+ km range of Agni puts Pakistan in Indian missile range from any part of India.<P>India has conducted a thermonuclear test so is capable of producing a 500Kt weapon.<P>In the nuclear scenario , in an all out war India would suffer huge damage losing more than half of it intellect .Pakistan , in all possibilities would be wiped off the map.Pakistani most extremist and optimist strategist would agree that an all out nuclear exchange would cause total destruction of Pakistan.Where Pakistan will and would derive strength is from nuclear blackmail .<BR>This was used in Kargil to full extent .<BR>In 1999 Kargil was occuopied by Pakistani troops during winter.For India to get the moutains vacated a huge amount in men and revenue had to be spent.In this exercise it was found that diplomatic finesse result in quickening of victory.In Kargil India found out that Pakistan would conduct a small scale war at it's own ground and time.India could not open a front at the West as this would lead to an escalation of the war.<P>Indian military superiority became it's own weak point.<BR>India knew that it did not enjoy the superiority in the qualitative and qty. to destroy Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in one conventional strike.But India had enough superiority to get a huge breakthrough at the West front <BR>thereby threatening to invade Pakistan.What I mean to put out that India could not push Pakistan to the brink armed with nuclear weapons for fear of a suicidical Pakistani nuclear attack.And India did not have the sort of air and missile power to take out Pakistani nuclear bases in one conventional strike.India simply at present does not possess the sort of Aircraft's and missiles required for the mission.<BR>India, so could not extend the war front at the West.<BR>One option was to go across the LOC and strike at support bases for the intruder's.But this was tricky itself in nature and was shelved for gain of diplomatic strength.<P>Pakistan now standing behind the nuclear shield feels free to engage in cross border terrorism to fragmentise India .It is now engaged in violent activities as far as Tamil Nadu in the South and Assam in the East.<BR>To counter this GOI must evolve a national policy that would lead to reducing home grown militancy in the North East and in Kashmir.This will be done only if the centre engages in talks with the rebels and tries to bring about peace within the region internally.Already before Kargil militancy in Kashmir was only because of mercenaries.For this India must deal with Russia,Saudi,Israel and USA to bring about some sort of peace within Afghanistan so that the terrorist elements that are originating from there is stopped.<BR>This again requires sound policy making and execution.<P><B>China </B><BR>PRC is the most populated nation on the planet.In 1962 it waged war with India and occupied a large amount of Indian land.Now also it claims to Indian land.<BR>Present projection show that in 20-25 yrs it would overtake the US in GNP.It is at present an expansionist power laying claim to land it had occupied centuries ago.PRC is superior to India on land , equal in air .But it is far superior to India on the nuclear and missile field.<BR>The threat that emnates from the Peoples Republic is not active but passive.<BR>It is Pakistan's chief arms supplier.It has in clear terms supplied Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in whole.It has built nuclear reactor's , purification plant's , missile plant's for Pakistan besides supplying with entire missile system.<BR>Every year Pakistan has progressed in the nuclear field solely due to Chinese help.<BR>India need to address this issue with China directly.Again for this sound policy that is used in reciprocative manner must be evolved.<BR>To counter the threat's facing India the following steps must be taken in the military field.<BR><B>1.Improving the quality of Indian weaponry.</B><BR><B>Indian Army</B><BR>The army must have top of the slot radar's that can pinpoint enemy artillery within second's.It must have systems that can take this information and attack the location with massive shelling.For this long range artillery guns are required.Improving the artillery ie, the guns, MLRS, shells and detection radars.<BR>Also basic survival amenities such as boots,jackets,helmets are required.<BR><B>Indian Navy</B><BR>The IN must have at least 2 A/C carriers.This with a very good ASW system is a must.In case of war with Pakistan the IN must cordon of Pakistan shore and try to hunt for Pakistani submarines.<BR><B>IAF</B><BR>The IAF must be India's primary sheild and attack force.It must have a multi tiered defense.At any point of time the IAF must be able to put air superiority fighters at any place in India within minutes .I will explain my thinking on the multi tiered defense in another thread.<BR>At this point I would say that acquiring the AWACS and AJT must be a priority.An AWACS with a Mig-21/AA-12 support can take on a F-16 attack easily.<BR>So the AWACS would get best results even from the older fighter planes in the IAF inventory.<BR><B>Missile Force</B><BR>India has the Prithvi and the Agni in it's arsenal.It must try to acquire or manufacture a sub launched nuclear capable cruise/ballistic missile.This would provide India with a sure shot nuclear retaliatory strike thereby strengthining the nulcear shield immeasurably.<BR>The advantage of the sea launched cruise missile is that it can wreak havoc on the enemy shores .<BR>It is also essential that Indian AAM's be of the top quality with all air superiority fighter's capable of firing it.<P>Internal Security requirements<BR>Indian police forces must be trained in military style .If not the entire force then at least an auxillary unit must be formed that is trained as the NSG's.They must be given weaponry similar to the NSG.If this proves expensive then at least they must have continuous training exercises to deal with hijack and hostage situations.<P>Satellite forces<BR>India must have an array of satellites that can have at least 1 metre resolution and at any point of time one of them should overlook the Indian sub continent.India must have secure and a robust communication system that is possible only with satellites.Any Indian base commander must have instant direct communication access to his next 3 juniors , seniors, the MOD, PMO, Rashtrapati Bhavan , the CM of the state.This would be useful in peace as well as war.<BR>Similarly any Indian city Police head must have direct access to the nearest army and Air Force base commander.<BR>This would prove useful in case of a Purulia type arms drop.The Commisioner of Police in case of emergency must be able to request Air Support from the IAF to track and force land a required Aircraft.This support by the IAF or IA must be given immediately and red tape required must be short and in case of emergency be the Police have recieved credible info that 50 kms from Mumbai in a remote near deserted place terrorists are going to assemble a chemical weapon to detonate in the city.Now the Commissioner would call the nearest base commander who instantly can order recon and surround and attack the place with air dropped para troopers.At this point of time a subordinate of the base commander can alert MOD while the Commissioner can brief the CM who calls on the PMO.This would be possible with only secure and robust communication.This is essential in peace time to win the war against militancy and terrorism.<P>My priorities for today are Artillery upgradation,SLBM/SLCM,AWACS,Spy sats, well trained police force, excellent communication systems which are thoroghly linked.This combined with sound policies regarding internal security and foreign policy should acheive India a robust internal defence an d credible nuclear deterrent.<P>Guys, I have been out of the forum for nearly 6 months so I don't know if this is discussed.Pls correct any discrepancy in the nos involved .<P>------------------<BR>bharat<P><BR>[This message has been edited by bharat (edited 18-07-2000).]<p>[This message has been edited by bharat (edited 18-07-2000).]

Posts: 327
Joined: 16 Aug 1999 11:31

Re: National Security Review

Postby Div » 19 Jul 2000 02:03

Fyi, here is the inventory of PLAAF (not including air assets of PLAN and PLA). Compiled by AKC; <P>---<P>Organization: 420,000 personnel (160,000 conscripts), including 220,000 in air-defense and 200,000 in aviation. A total of 4 Air Army Headquarters (1st at Changchun, 7th at Nanning, 8th at Fuzhou and 10th at Datong) with 8 regional command centers (Dalian, Tangshan, Shanghai, Wuhan, Kunming, Lasha, Xian and Ulumuqi), 33 Air Divisions (fully manned to 17,000 personnel each) and other independent regiments. Each Air Division has 3 Air Regiments of 70-124 fighters or 70-90 bombers. Normally each Air Regiment has 2 Air Squadrons and 1 Ground Maintenance Squadron with 18-24 aircraft. <P>400 Bomber & Ground Attack Aircraft in 4 divisions, including: <P>- 100 H-6E/H-6F medium strategic in 3 regiments; Second-line only; <BR>- 300 Q-5/Q-5C/Q-5D/Q-5E attacker (200 in first-line and 100 in second-line). <P>10+ HY-6 long-range refueling tankers. <P>2,000 Fighter and Interceptor Aircraft in about 27 divisions, including: <P>- 1,000 J-6 (2 AAMs), retiring; Second-line only; <BR>- 400 J-7II/J-7IIA/J-7IIH/J-7IIM (2-4 AAMs); First-line; <BR>- 100 J-7C/J-7D (4 AAMs); First-line; <BR>- 200 J-7E (4 AAMs); First-line; <BR>- 100 J-8/J-8A/J-8E (4 AAMs); Second-line; <BR>- 150 J-8B/J-8D (6 AAMs); First-line; <BR>- 44(+28) Su-27SK/UBK (10 AAMs); First-line; <BR>- 5 J-11 (10 AAMs); First-line. <P>400 Transport Aircraft in 2 divisions and independent regiments, including: <P>- 300 Y-5, retiring; <BR>- 37 Y-7/An-24/An-26; <BR>- 68 Y-8/An-12; <BR>- 15 Y-11; <BR>- 2 Y-12; <BR>- 10 IL-18, retiring; <BR>- 16(+9) IL-76MD; <BR>- 18 Trident-1E/2E; <BR>- 4 Boeing-737-200. <P>170 Helicopters, including: <P>- 100 Z-5 medium utility, retiring; <BR>- 30 Z-9 light utility; <BR>- 30 Ex-Soviet Mil-8 “Hip”; <BR>- 6 AS-332 VIP transport; <BR>- 4 Bell-214. <P>AAMs, including: <P>- Short-range: PL-2B/-5B/-8; 50+ AA-8 (R60E) “Aphid”, 250+ AA-11 (R73E) “Archer”; <BR>- Medium-range: PL-11; <BR>- Long-range: 250+ AA-10 (R27ER) “Alamo”. <P>Air Defense Force -- Anti-Aircraft Artillery in 16 divisions, including: <P>- 8,000 57/85/100 mm guns; <P>Strategic Air Defense Force -- Surface-to-Air Missiles, with more than 100 battalions, including: <P>- 500+ HQ-2A/-2B, medium-to-high altitude; <BR>- 100+ HQ-7, low-to-very low altitude, quad-launchers; <BR>- 20+ HQ-15, low-to-high altitude, quad-launchers, anti-radiation; <BR>- 100+ S-300PMU/PMU1, low-to-high altitude, quad-launchers. <P>At least 22 independent regiments of early warning, ground-control-intercept, and air-base radar units (with 1,500 Air Defense Radar).

Return to “Strategic & Security Issues Archive”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests