Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

svinayak
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby svinayak » 27 May 2009 06:49

Sanjay M wrote:US keeps rates low, India keeps rates high - so what happens?

Could US Credit Fuel India's Rise?


I just got a message from a friend of mine in Addis Ababa. She advises that I come back there and quick. Everyone is making money she wrote. I was a little surprised really even though I know their annualized growth rate is near double digits. So I checked in with Nazret.com, the Ethiopian Portal to see for myself what was going on. There is indeed a lot of new activity and although small by North American standards it represents a significant shift from the past.
The country is sprouting factories and industrializing.

Ethiopia is getting it's first glass factory care of the China-Africa development fund, Malaysian interests are building a mushroom factory, Ethiopian Airways is modernizing it's fleet of 737's, an Indian company is the suitor for a new 5000 km rail-line linking major hubs throughout the country while a new 420 MW hydro dam nears completion. And that was just the tip of the iceburg.

Ethiopia, nearly the worlds poorest country is being rapidly transformed by Asian capital (those spare US Dollars no doubt). And it is happening under the radar. The shift is unreported and virtually unknown in the west. You are spot on with your assessment of capital flows to developing nations if that is a fitting example to your discussion.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Pranav » 27 May 2009 08:27

India's activists push their government to put a price on carbon
http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/05/26 ... 12208.html
By LISA FRIEDMAN, ClimateWire

A coalition of Indian activists, academics and entrepreneurs is urging India's leaders to take a more aggressive stand on climate change.

In two days of talks with U.S. lawmakers and policy experts in Washington, D.C., the group said Indian society is starting a serious internal discussion about its role in addressing global warming.

"This is about recasting the debate," said Malini Mehra, founder of the Centre for Social Markets, a nonprofit based in India and the United Kingdom that promotes entrepreneurship and sustainable growth.

"The Indian government's agenda will not change until Indians want it to change," she told a U.N. Foundation forum. "I will not rest until we have a radically different position on the Indian government's side."

The United Nations is pushing for the creation of a new global emissions treaty to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, an agreement that may be determined in Copenhagen in December. U.S. lawmakers widely insist that America will only agree to a deal in which emerging nations like China and India also agree to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

India, meanwhile, argues that it is unfair to ask developing countries with historically low levels of emissions to take on a greenhouse gas reduction commitment. Instead, it has pushed for voluntary actions to boost renewable energy use and "decarbonize" its economy.

Fighting against a self-absolving 'orthodoxy'

In an interview with E&E earlier this year, India's climate change ambassador, Shyam Saran, said India already has pledged that it will not allow its per capita emissions -- about 1.7 tons per person annually -- to exceed the average per capita emissions of developed countries.

But Mehri -- along with Harish Hande, co-founder of SELCO India, a Bangalore-based solar home system business; author and columnist Prem Shankar Jha; and Arivudai Nambi, climate change director at the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation in Chennai -- said she wants to see more.

The group is pushing for India to put a price on carbon, take legally binding emissions commitments, and ultimately view its future growth from through a carbonless lens.

"I want to see a carbon tax, universal, including on India, including on China, including on the smallest country, to emphasize the fact that this is a global problem," Jha said.

The group members and others also criticized environmental groups for not pushing developing nations hard enough to take tougher international commitments, and accused nonprofit groups of adhering to an "orthodoxy" that absolves China, India and others from making tough decisions.

India is the world's fourth-largest economy, and its emissions have been rising rapidly -- about 65 percent between 1990 and 2005. That is expected to grow another 70 percent in the coming decade, according to the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

Yet while India accounts for about 4.7 percent of greenhouse gas emissions -- making it the world's fifth-largest emitter -- it still has one of the world's smallest per capita emission levels. For every person in India, the country emits 1.7 tons of greenhouse gases each year -- compared to 23 tons in America, 10 tons in Japan and 5.5 tons in China.

Earlier this year, India released a climate change "action plan" that proposes eight new national ministries centered around solar energy, energy efficiency, sustainable habitat, water conservation, protecting the Himalayan glacier and mountain ecosystem, sustainable agriculture, forests and climate change research.

Leaders say they can't deny access to electricity

But Indian leaders also note that coal-based electricity generation is central to India's power sector and will be so for several decades, due in large part to the country's enormous domestic resources. Taking on emissions commitments, Saran argued in March, would stifle India's development.

"We have 400 million Indians who do not have any access to energy. I can't go to them in a democracy and say, 'I'm sorry, we have accepted a cut in our emissions, and we can't give you energy,'" he said.

Angela Anderson, international policy analyst for the Climate Action Network, agreed that developing countries need to act more aggressively on global warming. But, she noted, U.S.-based environmental groups, at least, feel they need to focus on ensuring that America makes stringent cuts and joins a global agreement.

"There's some hesitation from an [nonprofit] perspective to take our eyes off the ball, which is to get the U.S. to do what it needs to do," she said.

"The whole world needs to do more, and certainly the rapidly developing countries ought to do more. But until we get our own house in order, we can't exactly point the finger at them," she said.

Mehra said she feels India is at a "crossroads." The country, she maintains, is capable of taking and making good on emissions targets, but lacks important academic research and modeling to show how a low-carbon economy can be achieved. Already, she noted, India -- with its 3,500-mile coastline subject to cyclones and with 78 percent of its land mass drought-afflicted -- spends 2 percent of its annual budget on natural disasters.

"How much will we be spending when actually the effects of climate change begin to kick in?" she said. "I want the government to come out and say, 'We see this as an existential threat to our people, and we will do whatever it takes.'"

Copyright 2009 E&E Publishing. All Rights Reserved.

For more news on energy and the environment, visit http://www.climatewire.net.


Essential Background information:

The Great Global Warming Swindle: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... ng+Swindle

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Singha » 27 May 2009 08:31

should belong in the psyops thread?

In two days of talks with U.S. lawmakers and policy experts in Washington, D.C., the group said Indian society is starting a serious internal discussion about its role in addressing global warming.

>> fits in with a long term trend of NGOs serving amirkhan agendas, going to attend seminars and 'teach ins' and receive funding and guidance on what to harp on next.
if they have a issue with indian govt, they should talk to indian govt and media, not
dump on GOI using amirkhans willing shoulders to take aim.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Pranav » 27 May 2009 09:13

Singha wrote:should belong in the psyops thread?



Agree. Will x-post. However, the psy-ops thread has been moved to the General Discussions forum, which seems to appear and disappear erratically in the Discussions forum list. Looks like the admins have not made up their minds.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Suraj » 27 May 2009 12:27

First statement from Pranab:
FM seeks balance between growth and fiscal deficit
“We require growth and for that we require money. If all government resources are not adequate, you have to borrow. Naturally, the fiscal deficit would increase. Therefore, we have to strike a balance between these two competing requirements — of growth and prudent fiscal management. And it will be my effort to strike this balance,” Mukherjee said in an exclusive interview with Business Standard.

Dwelling on a wide range of economic policy issues, just about six weeks before he presents the regular Budget for 2009-10, Mukherjee said he was yet to complete the analysis of the impact of the series of fiscal stimulus packages that were announced in December 2008, January 2009 and finally in his Interim Budget a month later. A considered view on the need for fresh fiscal stimulii will be taken only after assessing the impact of those measures on the economy.

Mukherjee added that all steps needed to restore the Indian economy to a higher growth trajectory would be taken. He admitted that global developments had slowed the Indian economy and their adverse impact was still visible, with the likelihood of the last financial year clocking a growth rate of 6.5 to 7 per cent, against an average annual growth rate of 8.9 per cent in the previous four years.

Mukherjee gave a clear hint that his budget would also address the needs of the aam aadmi by expanding employment generation schemes and social security nets.

Uptick in real estate favours mid-income housing over premium:
Housing projects are back with a vengeance
Top real estate developers are trying their best to make up for lost time. Buoyed by encouraging response from home-buyers for their marked-down properties, companies such as DLF, Unitech, HDIL and others have lined up housing projects of over 60 million square feet — all in the current financial year.

This is more than double the sales bookings in the past financial year.

Presentations by these companies to analysts show that Unitech is leading with 27 million square feet of new launches. DLF’s tally is 15 million square feet, roughly the same as last year’s. Puravankara and HDIL follow with 6 to 9 million and 8 million square feet respectively.

Mid-income housing is the flavour of the year and accounts for around 90 per cent of the projects. After a prolonged lull in the property market in 2008, which saw sales declining 70 per cent from their peak, the big developers moved into the mid-income segment and cut prices 20 to 30 per cent to generate liquidity.

Analysts, however, said developers had taken huge hits on their margins. Mid-income apartments have a margin of 25 to 30 per cent versus 50 to 70 per cent in premium housing. For instance, DLF’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) margins have been falling continuously.

“The days of 70 per cent margins are over. They have to be happy with 20 to 25 per cent margins now since liquidity is the bigger issue than profits today,” said an analyst from a Mumbai-based brokerage.

Apart from sales in the mid-income housing category, several other factors have also given developers confidence to move ahead, the primary being relief from immediate debt payments.

All the top developers have rolled over their short term liabilities by 12 to 18 months after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allowed commercial banks to restructure their debt.

Unitech has cut debt by Rs 2,000 crore and DLF, the country’s biggest developer, has repaid Rs 1,700 crore of loans in the past year. Between them the top three realtors — DLF, Unitech and HDIL — have restructured as much as Rs 4,100 crore worth of loans with commercial banks and mutual funds.

Developers have also benefited from the recent surge in the stock market, which has given many of them the opportunity to tap institutional investors to reduce debt and investing in new projects. After Unitech raised Rs 1,625 crore from a qualified institutional placement (QIP) in April, DLF’s promoters sold 9.9 per cent in the company for Rs 3,860 crore and Indiabulls Real Estate raised Rs 2,656 crore through a QIP.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Singha » 27 May 2009 20:54

if India is able to start clocking good growth rates again from this autumn and amir-khan is still in doldrums, the derided 'decoupling' theory will make a comeback.

under the weight of a heavy anchor the ship can be dragged under briefly, but will float up again due to buoyancy.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby sugriva » 27 May 2009 21:23

CNN-IBN reporting that Fringe Benefit Tax may be done away with in the next budget. Apparently not a good revenue generator and leads to large costs for administering FBT regime. Now wasn't FBT one of the schemes of the oh-so-brilliant-hahvard-educated, Chidu.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Singha » 27 May 2009 21:44

yes. some of his quixotic ideas deserves to be rolled back, like the tax on cash transactions.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Katare » 27 May 2009 23:14

I don't think FBT would be withdrawn or even should be withdrawn. It generates lotsa revenue for govt and taxes flimsy business expense/employee perks. It discourages employers from giving more perks instead of taxable cash salaries. The right approach is to increase tax examption limit (it was trippled in last 5-6 years) and discourage tax free perks. FBT may be rationalized and reformed/merged with income tax but should definately be kept and strengthened IMO.

BTT it seems have not resulted in any meaningful control over black money, money laundring or large cash transactions as it was intended. It seems those money trails are still too complicated and harder to prove/prosecute.

FBT and STT keeps govt cash registers ringing and taxes at source on desrving folks IMO.

My rating for 3 PC taxes-

STT - Two thumbs up
FBT - needs some reform (affects salaried upper middle class, so you would see a lot of oppostion on net/forums/english newspapers)
BTT - Chuck it

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Suraj » 28 May 2009 04:21

Positive attitude from our new FM:
Economic reforms the next stimulus: Pranab
Putting forward the broad economic agenda for the next five years, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said the next round of stimulus for growth would be in the form of economic reforms, and the government has already identified the plan of action.

The borrowing calendar released by the government shows that the central government is scheduled to borrow Rs 3,62,000 crore in 2009-10 to meet the fiscal deficit gap of 5.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product.

Under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBM), the government should have reduced its fiscal deficit to 3 per cent of GDP by 2008-09, but the interim budget estimated the gap at 6 per cent of India’s output growth. The applicability of the FRBM Act has been kept in abeyance for some time as the government cut taxes and increased spending to counter the global economic crisis.

“Prophets of doom have been unduly focusing on increased public spending and the consequent increase in the revenue and fiscal deficits in the recent past. We are hopeful that an early return to our recent growth performance will help us come back to our preferred path of fiscal prudence,” he said.

Govt banks say room for rate cut
In view of Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s remark that he will ask banks for a “benign plan of action” to stimulate economic growth, public sector banks have indicated that there is room for further cuts in lending rates. Private sector banks, however, say they will first focus on reducing their cost of funds.

Bank of India Chief Finance Officer VK Agarwal said there was room for lending rates to come down by 50-100 basis points. “The cuts are likely to happen in June. First, there could be a revision in the benchmark prime lending rate (BPLR). This could be followed by a cut in rates of BPLR-linked products,” he said.

Bapi Munshi, president, treasury at India’s third-largest private sector lender, Axis Bank, said, “We cut our prime lending rate (PLR) by 50 basis points (bps) recently after a 50 bps cut in April. We have not cut our deposit rates recently, unlike some other banks. We need to first take a call on deposit rates.”

Disinvestment as fiscal deficit funding bridge awaits Cabinet approval
Channeling disinvestment proceeds away from the National Investment Fund (NIF) would only require a Cabinet approval, not any amendment to an existing law, said two senior government officials.

This will make it easier for the government to use the disinvestment money to bridge the widening fiscal deficit. The government is considering a proposal to use money raised from selling equity stake in state-owned firms to meet its increased spending programme.

“There is no need for any amendment. A mere Cabinet decision is enough to use the disinvestment money to meet government expenditure,” said a government official.

Credit supply easing up:
Rs.70K crore ($15 billion) infrastructure projects reach financial closure in 3 months
Despite the economic slowdown and cash crunch in the global markets, nine infrastructure projects worth over Rs 70,000 crore have achieved financial closure in the last three months. Domestic banks and financial institutions have funded over Rs 40,000 crore as the debt component for these projects.

The latest to join the list of projects that have achieved financial closure are two power projects — 1,050 Mw GMR Kamalanga Energy of GMR Energy coming up at Dhenkanal in Orissa and the second phase 300 Mw Rosa power project in Uttar Pradesh promoted by Reliance Power.

Experts said financial closure for another Rs 100,000 crore ($22 billion) worth of projects are likely to be achieved in this calender year, mainly from the power and infrastructure sector.

“The liquidity situation in the country has improved after the stimulus offered by the central bank and the government. The projects that have achieved financial closure are fundamentally strong, with potential corporate back-up. Interest rates fell to 11.5-12.5 per cent from the September-October rate of above 14 per cent,” said Sanjay Sethi, executive-director and head, Infrastructure Group, Kotak Investment Banking.

Note the statement by the Tata official: companies are ambitiously investing afresh simply because we have a stable political climate, giving them sufficient confidence. Just what I hoped the verdict would result in:
Tata to invest Rs.20K crore ($4.5 billion) in core sector
Tata Realty and Infrastructure (TRIL), a closely-held unit of Tata Sons, plans to invest Rs 20,000 crore to build special economic zones, roads, ports and other core sector projects in the next three years to take advantage of a stable political environment and revival in the economy, a top company official said.

TRIL is planning to raise a Rs 4,770 crore international infrastructure fund by the end of the year to invest in its infrastructure projects. Tata Housing Development Company, another unit of Tata Sons, recently launched a low-cost housing project in Mumbai and has plans for similar projects in other parts of the country.

“There is a fundamental change in the country, and housing and infrastructure are clear focus areas now. With a full mandate, government can back these projects to turn around the economy,” said R K Krishna Kumar, chairman of TRIL and THDC and director of Tata Sons.

Tata Realty has already raised a Rs 3,500-crore offshore fund for investing in its real estate projects, 20 per cent of which is deployed. The other 80 per cent will be used in the next three years.

The company plans to invest nearly Rs 5,000 cr in property development, including three SEZs in Chennai, Ahmedabad and Pune and a city-centre project in Amritsar in the next three years. TRIL is planning IT SEZs in eight locations, in which group company Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) will be the anchor tenant. It is also planning to develop an SEZ at Gopalpur in Orissa, in association with Tata Steel.

TRIL is foraying into roads and highways, with the four-laning of the Rs 1,400 cr Pune-Solapur highway and plans to invest Rs 5,000 cr to develop three to four road projects in the next couple of years, said Sanjay G Ubale, managing director and chief executive officer of TRIL. TRIL recently signed for the Pune-Solapur project in partnership with Italian infrastructure major, Atlantia, on May 19.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Pranav » 28 May 2009 07:44

India increases exposure to dollar as its value falls:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Busi ... 573196.cms

India buys US debts worth $38 billion
25 May 2009, 0102 hrs IST, PTI


NEW YORK: As the recession-hit US economy is groping in the dark over uncertain financial position, India has increased its exposure to American debt securities by over three-fold to $38.2 billion till March compared to the year-ago period.

The emerging nation's investment in the US debt stood at $11.8 billion in March 2008. According to the data from the US Treasury Department, India has bought American debt instruments worth $38.2 billion till March 2009. Interestingly, India's exposure to US debt has surged by about $20 billion since October 2008, when the ongoing financial turmoil turned for the worse.

The world's largest economy was rattled by the then-famed Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy in mid-September. Considered to be one of the safest investment bets, India had invested $18.3 billion in October 2008 in the American securities, which soared to $38.2 billion in March. Among the foreign countries, neighbouring China has the highest investment of $767.9 billion. Japan, the world's second largest economy has invested $686.7 billion in US debts till March 2009.


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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby putnanja » 29 May 2009 07:15

Kamal Nath's new portfolio takes industry by surprise

...
Kamal Nath, who was the voice of India at multilateral trade talks and often criticised by rich nations for being over-protective of developing countries, was replaced by Anand Sharma, who was earlier minister of state for information and broadcasting.
...
"There were some under-currents that he (Kamal Nath) may be shifted out. But the move to give him transport and bring in Anand Sharma to commerce instead was unexpected," said a senior official in a leading industry chamber.
...
Industry sources speculated that Kamal Nath's tough postures previously at multilateral forums, because of which heads of state or government had to call up Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the past, may have cost him his previous portfolio.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Suraj » 29 May 2009 11:24

Official 2008-09 GDP data is out

CSO/MOSPI Report: Q4 and FY2008-09 Revised Estimate

Fiscal 2008-09 Real GDP Growth Rate: 6.7%
Fiscal 2008-09 GDP: Rs.53,21,753 crore
2008-09 Nominal GDP growth rate: 12.7%

Gross Fixed Capital Formation :
Q1: 34.5%
Q2: 37.1%
Q3: 33.0%
Q4: 34.8%
Investment rate has picked up in Q4 after cratering in Q3, which is good. Overall, both the fourth quarter GDP growth rate and fiscal year growth rate were above analyst estimates.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Dileep » 29 May 2009 11:42

I guess Kamal Nath will do good to Surface Transport. We need a tough guy there.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Sanjay M » 29 May 2009 11:54

BBC:

Indian economy puts on the brakes

The Indian economy is still one of the fastest-growing in the world
India's economy grew 5.8% in the first three months of the year compared with the same period last year, although that was better than had been expected.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Suraj » 29 May 2009 12:03

SanjayM: did you quote the headline verbatim or write your own ? It now shows a more reasonable headline:
Indian growth unexpectedly strong
Of course, it's the beeb...

More coverage:
India GDP Growth Beats Estimate Amid Global Slump
Asia’s third-largest economy expanded 5.8 percent in the three months to March 31, led by government spending and construction, the statistics office said in New Delhi today. Economists were expecting a 5 percent increase.

India’s better-than-expected growth in the March quarter, which matched the pace of expansion in the previous three months, is another sign that the worst may be over for the global economy. Japan’s industrial output surged the most in 56 years in April and U.K. consumer confidence this month matched the highest level in almost a year.

“The worst is certainly over for the Indian economy,” said K. Sridharan, chief financial officer at Ashok Leyland Ltd., the country’s second-biggest maker of buses and trucks.

Vehicle sales and the production of cement, electricity and refined petroleum are showing signs of revival. India’s passenger-car sales increased 4.2 percent in April from a year earlier, after a 1 percent gain in March. Cement production jumped 10.1 percent in March and electricity output rose 5.9 percent from a year ago, according to government data.

In the past week, UBS AG increased its growth forecast for India to 6.2 percent in the year to March 2010, compared with an earlier prediction of 5.2 percent.

The 73-year-old Mukherjee returned to the finance ministry after a quarter of a century. As the finance minister in Indira Gandhi’s cabinet from 1982 to 1984, he ran an economy that was almost closed and insulated from the global economy.

Singh, as finance minister between 1991 and 1996, abandoned Soviet-style state planning and introduced free-market policies that have helped the economy quadruple to $1.2 trillion. Mukherjee said this week he will draft the budget with Singh, renewing a relationship that started in the early 1980s when he appointed Singh as the central bank governor.

Indian March qtr growth stronger than expected
* India March qtr GDP up 5.8 pct vs forecast of 5.2 pct
* India 2008/09 growth at 6.7 pct vs forecast of 6.5 pct
* Robust services sector offset sagging factory output
* Analysts say growth may have bottomed out

India's March quarter growth was a little below China's 6.1 percent expansion in the first quarter, which was its weakest since quarterly record began in 1992.

For the 2008/09 fiscal year to March 31, India's economy grew 6.7 percent, its weakest in six years and sharply slower than rates of 9 or higher in the previous three years.

The central bank has forecast growth of about 6 percent in 2009/10. Governor Duvvuri Subbarao has said if global conditions remained calm, the economy may revive later in the year.

"This just confirms that after Q3 there was a sudden slowdown but things stabilised and improved in the fourth quarter," said A. Prasanna, chief economist at ICICI Securities Primary dealership.

"If this continues what we could see is in the first half (2009/10) probably the economy will continue to grow at a pace slightly below 6 percent, and in the second half it will grow closer to 7 percent."

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby vsudhir » 29 May 2009 16:06


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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Vipul » 29 May 2009 20:11

First time in history, average Indian's income crosses Rs3000.

The monthly income of an average Indian for the first time in the country's history has crossed Rs 3,000, thanks to economic reforms
and a high growth rate of above 9% achieved for three years since 2005-06.

The per capita income, a measure of average income of a citizen, went up 12.2% to Rs 37,490 per annum during 2008-09, said the advance estimate for national income released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) on Friday.

During 2007-08, the per capita income was Rs 33,283 per annum.

The CSO data further reveals that the per capita income at constant (1999-2000) prices during the last fiscal rose to Rs 25,494 per annum from Rs 24,295 per annum in the previous year, recording a growth rate of 4.9 per cent.

The per capita income would have been higher but for the global economic crisis , which pulled down the country's economic growth during 2008-09 to 6.7 per cent from 9 per cent in the previous fiscal.

The national income during the year went up to Rs 43.26 lakh crore, showing a rise of 14.2%, while the population of the country increased by 1.6 crore to 115.4 crore.

The CSO data further says that the national income at 1999-2000 prices increased by 6.4% to Rs 29.42 lakh crore during 2008-09.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby ramana » 29 May 2009 20:48

How much is that in PPP? Are we meeting the Tier 1 & 2 goals?

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Singha » 29 May 2009 21:17

sometime in 2008 we entered the bottom tier of middle income nations. we are no longer a low-income nation per the benchmarks.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Suraj » 29 May 2009 21:46

GoI doesn't report PPP numbers. Some international data aggregator body like WB or IMF does, since PPP == 'international dollars'. Singha is right about the categorization, though GoI likes to retain the low-income bracket for aid benefits.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Singha » 30 May 2009 07:31

not just the GOI. lakhs of NGO and jholawallahs would be out of a job if that calamity were to be official. poverty itself greases many wheels and creates jobs.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Yogi_G » 30 May 2009 09:29

so good news on the gdp to external debt ration then...I bet it helps our credit rating in the long run.

With a good credit rating and the "poor country" tag, India will have get loans on relatively low interest rates, or am I missing something here, wud India still get low interest loans with a "middle income country" tag?

Also will a middle income country tag translate into higher expectations for commitments in terms of money and resources for UN orgs and IMF perhaps (we have already put in billions into IMF) BTW...


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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Vipul » 30 May 2009 21:16

Real GDP surge stumps Cassandras.
Confounding the Cassandras, Indian economy registered a growth rate of 5.8% in the final quarter of 2008-09 -- the same as in the preceding quarter, though sharply lower than the 8.6% leap during the same quarter of the preceding year.

Though the contraction in manufacturing output to the tune of 1.4% had acted as a drag, a respectable showing in agriculture and construction, aided by a flagging but still heightened tempo of activity in services helped achieve what seems to a decent economic performance in the circumstances.

For the last fiscal as a whole, real GDP spurted by 6.7%; the official advance estimate was 7.1%.

The latest figure was the upper end of the range of 6.5% to 6.7% anticipated by the Reserve Bank of India in its monetary policy for 2009-10. In 2007-08, there was a robust 9%surge in this respect.

Two facts stand out when the GDP data are examined more minutely. First, no let-up is evident in investment. The rate of gross fixed capital formation has, in fact, improved to 34.8% during 2008-09 from the earlier year's level of 34%. In particular, during the final quarter, the pace increased to 34.8%from 33.4%.

Second, the fiscal stimulus packages to boost demand are having the intended effect. The government's final consumption expenditure during 2008-09 jumped by 29%; in particular, during the last quarter when the spending spree was set in motion, the spurt was 25%.

The fall-out of the government pay-out in the form of farm loan waiver, cost of implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission's recommendations, subsidies as well as the counter-cyclical measures that involved a huge cash outgo was the acceleration in the rate of government final consumption expenditure -- to 11.6% in 2008-09 from 10.1% and to 14.3% in the final quarter of that year from 12%.

Dissecting the GDP in terms of growth rates of the broad sectors -- primary, secondary and tertiary -- it is clear that, during 2008-09, there was a setback vis-a-vis the preceding year in all of them, which, in turn, pulled down the overall economic growth for that year.

Thus, in the primary sector, the rate had slackened to 1.6% from 4.9% and in the secondary sector to 3.9% from 8.1%.
In the services sector -- normally a buoyant segment of the economy-- a slowdown was relatively moderate with real output up by 9.7% compared with a somewhat higher 10.9% in 2007-08.

However, during the final quarter of 2008-09, while industry and services were laggards, the primary sector acquitted itself somewhat creditably. Its growth improved to 2.7% from 2% a year ago.

It is worth noting that, despite a decline of 1.4% in the real GDP originating from manufacturing, the secondary sector did record a rise of 1.4% due to the satisfactory performance by construction -- here, the rise was 6.8%, virtually the same as in the fourth quarter of 2007-08 and a less marked deceleration in electricity, gas and water supply -- to 3.6% from 4.6%.

Seen in perspective, the growth of the economy during the final quarter of 2008-09 was the lowest ever since 2002-03 when the rate had dipped to 3.7% since the commencement of the current series at 1999-00 prices.

Annually also, the 6.7% rate witnessed in the last fiscal was slowest since 2002-03 when the spurt was a dismal 3.8%. The average annual growth rate for the period, 2004-2009, worked out to 8.5% -- a performance not many countries can boast of.

More important, in a year when economic woes multiplied at home and abroad, a 6.7% surge is no mean achievement. The fourth quarter trend suggests that the economy may be on the way to mend.


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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby vsudhir » 31 May 2009 18:08



Vipul
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Vipul » 02 Jun 2009 01:07

India manufacturing expands to 8 month peak - PMI.

Manufacturing activity in India expanded for a second straight month in May to its highest in eight months, a survey showed, reflecting a revival in domestic demand that could drive growth in the coming months.

The Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) based on a survey of 500 companies, rose to 55.7 in May from April's 53.3, well above the threshold of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
Article Controls

It hit a trough of 44.4 in December and has steadily risen since then.The manufacturing index was boosted mainly by the new orders index, which rose to 59.1 from 54.9 in April.

'I think the picture that is emerging from recent data is some sort of a stabilisation in domestic demand, possibly due to higher government spending and restocking demand,' said Sonal Varma, an economist at Nomura Research.

The PMI numbers comes after data on Friday showed Asia's third biggest economy expanded faster than expected in the March quarter boosted by strength in the farm and services sector. For a related story, please see.'The pickup in new orders shows that domestic-demand should gather momentum in the coming months,' Varma said.

Manufacturing makes up about 15 percent of India's gross domestic product and Industrial output fell 2.3 percent from a year earlier in March, its steepest annual pace in at least 14 years..

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Raj » 02 Jun 2009 07:30





http://ictsd.net/i/news/bridgesweekly/30180/
”We will formally be signing the FTA with ASEAN around December 18(2008),”


http://www.javno.com/en-economy/india-c ... sean_74694
"We hope to sign it at the ASEAN summit in Singapore in November(2007)."


http://www.bilaterals.org/article.php3?id_article=2794
Asean-India FTA Implementation To Be Amended (from Jan 1, 2006) to Jan 1, 2007.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Katare » 02 Jun 2009 10:44

For reference, Chinese exports declined by 22.6% in april and 17% in march.

Indian Exports dip for seventh month

Exports fell more than 33 per cent for the second consecutive month in April 2009, with economic recession in advanced economies adversely impacting foreign demand for Indian manufacturers.

Imports fell even more sharply, by 37 per cent, mainly because of a fall in oil prices. With imports declining at a faster rate than exports, the trade deficit — the difference between the two — narrowed 50 per cent to $5 billion in April 2009.
Last edited by Katare on 02 Jun 2009 20:54, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby derkonig » 02 Jun 2009 10:48

That is because April has 30 days versus 31 in March, also don't compare 2008 to 2009, after all 2008 was a leap year.
AoA yand MaoA..

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Ameet » 02 Jun 2009 11:35

Heard: Ratan Tata Looks for a Successor

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1243862 ... lenews_wsj

Ratan Tata is known as a persistent suitor. The chairman of India's foremost conglomerate successfully pursued Corus Steel and later snapped up Jaguar and Land Rover.

Finding a successor is proving more elusive, however. There are whispers that the 71-year-old is casting a wide net, going so far as to look beyond India's shores. In particular, he has been wooing Indra Nooyi, the Indian-born chief executive of PepsiCo, to take the reins of Tata's increasingly global empire. But Ms. Nooyi has repeatedly, and firmly, rebuffed the approach.

With Ms. Nooyi ruling herself out, the question turns to which other executives of Indian origin could be candidates. Former Vodafone chief Arun Sarin? Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit? Ajay Banga, Citi's well-regarded Asia chief, or perhaps his brother, Manvinder Banga, a top Unilever executive? Further nominations welcome.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Katare » 02 Jun 2009 20:55

derkonig wrote:That is because April has 30 days versus 31 in March, also don't compare 2008 to 2009, after all 2008 was a leap year.
AoA yand MaoA..


What?? Check the news again!!! :|

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby derkonig » 02 Jun 2009 21:08

^^^
That was meant for the grolious lepubric, not SDRE Yindian import-exports.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Suraj » 03 Jun 2009 02:33

New fiscal has started well:
Infrastructure sector rebounds in April
Hopes of an economic recovery grew, with data for the output in six core infrastructure sectors rebounding in April, showing a 4.3 per cent increase — the most since July 2008 — on a better-than-expected performance in coal, electricity and cement.

These sectors collectively account for 27 per cent of the Index of Industrial Production.

The output in the sector during April is more than the 2.7 per cent increase seen in the previous month, and about double of what was seen in the year-ago month. April's jump would have been higher, but for the substantial dip in production of crude oil and petroleum products. IIP had dipped 2.7 per cent in March 2009, the most since inception of the updated index in 1994.

The data showed a record increase in coal production during the month under consideration. Industry experts attribute this to output from new mines.

Cement production growth in the month under consideration was the highest since February 2007, pointing towards increased activity in the infrastructure sector.

Exporters demand incentives to meet $200-billion target
Key demands made by the exporters in the pre-Budget meeting include exemption from fringe benefit tax as well as faster refunds of service tax. In addition they also called for an interest rate of 7 per cent for exports-related credit. Moreover, exporters proposed a Rs 5,000-crore fund, which could be used to market Indian products in emerging overseas markets like East Europe, Latin America or Africa.

Exports have been dipping for seven months in a row ending April as orders from the US and the EU declined in the backdrop of the global financial crisis. In 2008-09, overseas sale of Indian goods expanded by just 3.4 per cent and stood at $168.7 billion.

“There have been inquiries from overseas clients but we have not been able not to convert them to orders,” Sakthivel added.

Exporters have pitched for an investment of Rs 1,50,000 crore by the government in the textile and apparel sector to enable marketing and skill development.

Pharma exporters assured the government that exports from the sector could reach $20 billion by 2012, three years ahead of the scheduled target, provided they were given adequate attention.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby vsudhir » 03 Jun 2009 07:21

Delhi hotel rates worst-hit in APAC

The economic slowdown and 26/11 have significantly dented the hospitality industry’s fortunes.

Among the top Asia Pacific (APAC) travel destinations, the average daily rates (ADR) for hotels in Delhi has been most severely hit with a 44 per cent decline followed by Mumbai at 38 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.

Interestingly, the ADR decline in Bangalore is 15 per cent lesser than its corresponding ADR decreases in Singapore (35 per cent), Sydney (33 per cent), Melbourne (24 per cent), Shanghai and Tokyo (17 per cent). Also, comparing Q1 2009 with Q1 2008, the average air ticket prices (ATP) for top corporate travel destinations such as Delhi and Mumbai have decreased by as much as 50 per cent.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Rahul Mehta » 03 Jun 2009 08:31

Ameet wrote:Heard: Ratan Tata Looks for a Successor

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1243862 ... lenews_wsj

Ratan Tata is known as a persistent suitor. The chairman of India's foremost conglomerate successfully pursued Corus Steel and later snapped up Jaguar and Land Rover.

Finding a successor is proving more elusive, however. There are whispers that the 71-year-old is casting a wide net, going so far as to look beyond India's shores. In particular, he has been wooing Indra Nooyi, the Indian-born chief executive of PepsiCo, to take the reins of Tata's increasingly global empire. But Ms. Nooyi has repeatedly, and firmly, rebuffed the approach.

With Ms. Nooyi ruling herself out, the question turns to which other executives of Indian origin could be candidates. Former Vodafone chief Arun Sarin? Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit? Ajay Banga, Citi's well-regarded Asia chief, or perhaps his brother, Manvinder Banga, a top Unilever executive? Further nominations welcome.


Is this article meant to prepare Indian citizens to the possibility that Tata may now be headed by a videshi (I consider ex-Indians as videshi) ? Is videshi heading Tata a good sign for India? No it is not. And isn't Tata deep into debt? Yes it is. If so, then are the investors using debt as weapon forcing Tata executives to accept a videshi for the CEO position? I think so. IOW, I think investors are forcing Tata executives to take leadership of a videshi. And to prepare Indians with the possibility of videshi heading Tata, such articles are being planted. After all, if all of a sudden, a videshi becomes Tata CEO, many Indians may take it adversely.

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby R Vaidya » 03 Jun 2009 18:28

Why must we always live our lives to western standards?

http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1260928

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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Postby Samay » 04 Jun 2009 17:51

same goes for industry standards as well as other standards, that were made after some investment .
logically it is because the R&D in India is still following that of US


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