India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

shiv
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India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby shiv » 30 Dec 2008 07:07

Rangudu wrote:From orbat.com

India offers US 120,000 troops for Afghanistan

Please note that Pakistan has withdrawn a second divisional HQ from the NWFP. We assume its is HQ 23 Division plus the one brigade that went with the HQ to NWFP; Mandeep Singh Bajwa will let us know when he has confirmation. we are approaching the point where two-thirds of the reinforcements sent west are in the process of withdrawing. Please also note Bill Roggio at Long War Journal reports that in the Orakzi agency, one of the seven tribal agencies of the NWFP, Taliban has enforced Sharia law on 15 of 21 tribes in the agency. In other words, the Talibanization of the NWFP is proceeding rapidly. We also have an analysis on why Pakistani soldiers are refusing to fight the insurgents - we already knew why, but for the first time we have information from someone on the scene. We will give it to you tomorrow. But all in all, the US by insisting Pakistan fight the insurgents set itself up for failure. Again, we have said this before, we can now say it from another angle. US policy in the region has to change dramatically if there is to be hope of success in Afghanistan.

Our trusty correspondent, Mandeep Singh Bajwa, informed us this morning that India has offered to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan. Naturally we asked Mandeep "are we being used by the Indians in a psyops game to put pressure on Pakistan?" Not that the Government of India knows we exist, but in all the movies about the media the Editor always asks if the paper is being played.

Mandeep's answer, paraphrased, was this: "I don't know at what level the offer has been made, but the Indian Army and Air Force are down to identifying specific units, formations, and squadrons..." - details, as we said, at Long War Journal - "...as well as discussing a specific name for force commander, plus working on the details of pre-deployment training, so this is a lot more elaborate than needed for a psyops game.'

We'd prefer to discuss this after we learn more, rather than waste your time with elaborate theories spun out of nothing ("Orbat.com's military sources say..."). But the following points are immediately apparent.

For the new US administration, this offer would be heaven-sent and just making it would put the US Government in debt to the Indians - "your other friends/allies talked, we walked." The administration could turn around to to its own people, and say: "Americans, you complain we are carrying the Afghan burden by ourselves, now we have a partner."

At Orbat.com we've been constantly talking about the need for more manpower; well, here you have a whacking big increment of manpower. With US/Allied troops it takes one to 75% of what Orbat.com considers a minimum force if Afghanistan is to be won.

In one deft swoop, India forces the Americans to chose Delhi over Islamabad. To the Indians the constant US attempt to "balance" the two countries has been a source of serious blood pressure since the 1940s; obviously if the Americans accept it has to be India First from now on and Pakistan gets marginalized. Moreover, the Indians put America up the creek without the paddle regarding Pakistan: "what is it your so-called ally is doing, compared to what we are willing to do."

The devious cunning of the Indian move becomes more apparent when you consider if the US government refuses, the American people are going to get on the Government's case: "The Indians are offering and you're still sticking with those slimey two-timers the Pakistanis?"

For India, offering a huge contingent takes the pressure off the Indian government to act aggressively against Pakistan. India does not have a launch a single sortie against Pakistan to punish it for acting against India. Indian government can tell its own people: "What good will a pinprick do? The Israelis have been bashing up the Palestinians for two decades, and where are the results? What we are doing is to strike a hard blow at Pakistan without crossing the Pakistan border and getting beat up by everyone for provoking war."

Plus India neatly destroys Pakistan's strategic depth objective. The Indians have been wanting to get into the act in Afghanistan for several years, because they know a Taliban government means more fundamentalist pressure on Pakistan and thereby on India. But the Americans have been refusing India help for fear of offending the Pakistanis. For India to get into Afghanistan in force is to again change the paradigm of Indian-Pakistani relations as happened in 1971 when India split East Bengal from Pakistan. For the last almost 40 years India's efforts to marginalize Pakistan have been stymied. If the US accepts the Indian offer, India gains hugely.

But right now a lot of American decision-makers do not care if Pakistan is offended because they see the latter has no interest in fighting the insurgents or helping the US against the Taliban. Once alternate supply routes are available, US can write off Pakistan and as a consequence, paradoxically, vastly increase its leverage in that country.

As for Pakistani/jihadi retaliation against India or the Indian contingent in Afghanistan, we've said before the Indians don't care. Their point is India is squarely in the sights of the jihadis: India is already under severe, sustained attack and unable to retaliate. As for the security of the Indian troops, that really is the last thing the Indians are concerned about. They want to go to Afghanistan to fight, not to protect their troops against suicide bombers.

Two other minor points in passing. By making this offer, India takes the wind out of Pakistan's sails because the latter has very successful turned the world's attention from the Bombay atrocity to getting the world to stop escalation between India and Pakistan. Every day that goes by, India has less diplomatic/geopolitical freedom to hit Pakistan. But if India has offered several divisions for Afghanistan, obviously the last thing the Indians are thinking of is attacking Pakistan - 3/4th of the Army troops (as opposed to the CI troops) India is earmarking for Afghanistan are from the three strike corps. So India undercuts Pakistani claims that Delhi is preparing to attack.

The second point we find interesting. PRC knows if Pakistan falls to the jihadis, Sinkiang is the next target. By offering to go to Afghanistan, India is directly helping Beijing. Which puts Beijing in a very awkward spot as India is a big rival for influence in Asia. Not only will Indians be helping PRC, if China does send troops to Afghanistan, Delhi will canoodle with Washington without competition from China. The Chinese will have no choice but to join the Afghan venture or lose influence in South and Central Asia, and with Washington.

To sum up: Orbat.com has been second to none in bashing the Government of India as incompetent and impotent. But with this offer, India has overnight changed the rules of game in South/Central Asia and struck a potentially fatal blow at Pakistan. In the end, this could become much, much bigger by an order of magnitude than breaking off East Pakistan in 1971.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby shiv » 30 Dec 2008 07:14

Either the Pakistan army must fight the Taliban, or the Pakistan army IS the Taliban.

either way - we will have to help right?

I head that india is negotiating with Russia for troop supply. Suppyng Indian troops is much more politically acceptable in Russia than supplying US troops apart from commonality of equipment
Last edited by shiv on 30 Dec 2008 08:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby SBajwa » 30 Dec 2008 07:16

This is an excellent move!! Commies and "Media reporters on ISI payroll" need to be checked.

Sikh regiments (both), Jat and Gurkhas will be an excellent choice for Afghanistan.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby Muppalla » 30 Dec 2008 07:21

Right on!!!. Kunduz might be the best base for Indian troops. I guess India will leave the Kandahar for NATO troops.

Map for reference:
John Snow wrote:Image
Last edited by Muppalla on 30 Dec 2008 07:27, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby munna » 30 Dec 2008 07:27

Ok here is my take for whatever it is worth. As per my resources in some useless circles the idea of co opting the so called moderate Pakis has been decisively thrown out of the window.
India is moving towards a strategy to reassure it public and will definitely do some interesting things (read above) which may or may not seem to be spectacular to our jingo hearts. However the most interesting aspect is the revival of the dictum of taking the war to your enemies in the form of pinning Pakis down in their own sewer pot of a country. The Dillli Billi consensus is working overtime for a strategy to be implemented irrespective of the government of the day. Majority of the governance in India is babu based and politicians are very superficial to whole governance thingy, the idea of SAVA LAKH troops is the clarion call of our infuriated babus. Beware of the fury of a Babu signing forms in triplicates and making inventory lists in duplicates :rotfl: .

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby shiv » 30 Dec 2008 07:51

With the threat posed to Iran from Pakistan, we must keep in mind the possibility of some supplies from Iran with whom we have good relations. This was mentioned to me last night in a conversation I had with the nephew of a former diplomat to Iran.

India has the advantage of great relations with Iran and Russia - unlike the US. And its high time the US too realised fundamental differences between shia Persia and the Wahhabummah

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby negi » 30 Dec 2008 07:54

There are couple of things to note:

1. The number 1,20000 is huge its like opening a new front in an ongoing war , point being going by the recent reaction of the world community there seems to be a global consensus on the issue of trying to avoid a war/conflict between India and Pakistan, an approval or invitation to the IA to station men and material at such scale in Afghanistan to me sounds unrealistic at least for the time being.

2. For time being if we assume the issue with logistics and the supply route is addressed by NATO and Co , point is what will be the 'ostensible' role and objective of mobilization of such huge resources ? Again if this is about India joining the GWOT then question arises about the IA's operational freedom wrt carrying out its ops under the US/NATO banner.

3. India's relations with the ME/Central Asia/RU : Until now India enjoys a neutral image in the ME/Central Asia wrt to its foreign policy when dealing with the Islamic countries, a decision to send troops to Afganisthan specially for fight against the Taliban will change this notion , Mr. Bush has already managed to piss the Islamic countries and India joining the Unkil Sams club will definitely draw flak from the concerned parties.

RU of late has been keeping a close eye on GOI's close relations with the US and Afghanistan being a touchy topic for the Ruskies ; India joining the NATO in Afghanistan will definitely send wrong signals to the Kremlin.

4. Until now we hear stray incidents of Indian Engineers being kidnapped or being killed in Afghanistan , a formal agreement with the US and active participation of the IA in conflict would definitely aggravate the situation and we might come across increase in number of such incidents involving Indian Engineers in Afghanistan.

5. PA is not comfortable with this idea of having to deal with the Taliban menace under GWOT and at the same time keep vigil on the eastern border , IA's inclusion into the GWOT club might irk some folks in Islamabad but PA would then definitely try to pitch the Taliban militia against the IA . Until now we have come across active involvement of LET,JEM,HUM,HUA in J&K and blasts across the country , however it is still unclear how actively the Al-Queda and Taliban have been directly involved with Terrorist activities in India. India's involvement with the US might rile up the Taliban regime and we might see increase in the number of Suicide attacks a trademark of the Taliban militia.

6. Role of IRAN: IRAN and India have enjoyed cordial relations in the past , however after the IPI debacle and India's indifference to IRAN in UN over Ameriki ops has not gone well with the Govt of IRAN . In the past 5 years or so we have also seen India-US and Israel coming together on issues of mutual interest (at least this is the global perception from the IDM).
I do not see anything special which India has to offer to IRAN for which IRAN will allow use of its territory for any action against the Taliban or even the PA (specially when the Islamic countries will be obviously taking the GOP's side).

7. Unkil might loose PA's support and the supply routes/airbases in Pakistan:
The very mention of India joining GWOT will definitely result in PA blackmailing unkil of withdrawing from GWOT and deny access to Pakistan's airspace and airfields . What is more Important is as a replacement India does not have an equivalent supply route/airfield to offer.
As of now the IAF only operates Mi-17 helos from the airfield in Tajikistan

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby somnath » 30 Dec 2008 07:55

This is more than fantasy, its ludicrous! For India to maintain any meaningful number of troops in Afghanistan (forget 100,000 -thats 10% of the Amry for God's sake!), the most important "ally" has to be Pakistan! Suffice to say that the moment India puts in even a word of its intention, Pakistan is going to pull the logistics plug off the Americans. So how is any force going to maintain itself? Through Iran - which will kindly agree to help the US in Afghanistan? Or through Central Asia? What is the incremental cost of that? And we would be sending our troops in harms way knowing fully well that even the shortest air supply route is overflying Pakistan!

america has a credibility problem in Afghanistan, in a society that is deeeply fundamentalist (in no small measure due to America!). While it needs more boots on the ground, it really doesnt help if those boots are not "muslim boots". Any fresh non-muslim boots will only maintain the current level of problems there.

And from our selfish perspective, it is not even good psyops! Night dreams is probably a better word for this..

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby shiv » 30 Dec 2008 07:59

somnath wrote:This is more than fantasy, its ludicrous!.



I'm warning you Somnath. You will be booked under the Official Secrets act for discussiing such information in public.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby NRao » 30 Dec 2008 08:09

Iran, the issue is the nuclear one, nothing else. U.S analysts have stated (NPR) that there is good chance that something can be worked out to allow US supplies to flow through Iran. The chances, they stated, to go through Russia are better.

Just a thought, but would supply be an issue if the Paki conflict can come to a rather quick end? IF the issue is not to defend A'stan border? The goal HAS to be more aggressive. I mean IF we are thinking about Pakistan, then might as well rename the country and get the like of Rashid Ahmeds to float into the Arabian Sea.

IA cannot go there to defend for sure.

And, while at it, we can talk of "Muslim Boots" after the fact.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby shiv » 30 Dec 2008 08:13

NRao wrote:The goal HAS to be more aggressive.


The goal has to be the setting up of Pashtunistan. There has to be a buffer state between Pakistan and Afghanistan and the border has to make militray/geographic sense - unlike Durand's line.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby Babui » 30 Dec 2008 08:20

I hope this is a joke. It only makes sense if IA uses Afghanistan as a launching pad for a 'second front' (or 'third front' if IA brigade lands at Gwadar) in the event of war. Else, every Jihadi above the age of 5 will be hot-footing it to Afghanistan and it will become our second Sri Lanka.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby williams » 30 Dec 2008 08:23

3. India's relations with the ME/Central Asia/RU : Until now India enjoys a neutral image in the ME/Central Asia wrt to its foreign policy when dealing with the Islamic countries, a decision to send troops to Afganisthan specially for fight against the Taliban will change this notion , Mr. Bush has already managed to piss the Islamic countries and India joining the Unkil Sams club will definitely draw flak from the concerned parties.

RU of late has been keeping a close eye on GOI's close relations with the US and Afghanistan being a touchy topic for the Ruskies ; India joining the NATO in Afghanistan will definitely send wrong signals to the Kremlin.

4. Until now we hear stray incidents of Indian Engineers being kidnapped or being killed in Afghanistan , a formal agreement with the US and active participation of the IA in conflict would definitely aggravate the situation and we might come across increase in number of such incidents involving Indian Engineers in Afghanistan.


ME/Central Asia/RU have not done enough to solve Indian problems. India remaining neutral has not paid the expected dividends. Russians friendship will remain as long as India has a fat wallet. Fat wallet can buy Uncles weapons if need be. ME countries again have not provided us the needed strategic dividends. As long as India keeps its focus to destroy taliban and corner the Paki regime, all of these nations will remain neutral. Ruskies may make some noise but in the end they will understand. I will fully support MMS and co if they go with this plan and not fire a single bullet. This is a great strategic foot hold. Gurus need to fill in the logistical rationality though.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby shiv » 30 Dec 2008 08:25

Babui wrote:I hope this is a joke. It only makes sense if IA uses Afghanistan as a launching pad for a 'second front' (or 'third front' if IA brigade lands at Gwadar) in the event of war. Else, every Jihadi above the age of 5 will be hot-footing it to Afghanistan and it will become our second Sri Lanka.



er Babui - I have always wondered if we have the luxury of pulling out from India as we come under attack in India. The idea of fighting a war from where we can pull out seems attractive - but even in my armchair my rank is less than sepoy.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby Arun_S » 30 Dec 2008 08:29

IMVHO Indian troops to Afgahnistan will only be real of there is any evidence of Unkill giving open support to Baluchistan.

Otherwise this so called scoop news of 120,000 Bharathiya Fauj is bakwas.

Supply route via Iran IMO is a non starter unless again USA patches up with Iran big time and let Iran make a Shia Nuclear Bum. Iran providing land corridore for Indian supply routes to Afghanistan perhaps plausible, but as an agent for USA will be unacceptable HARAM that Iran IMO will refuse because they are not rudderless Dhimmi idiots with no any sense of history.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby Arun_S » 30 Dec 2008 08:33

williams wrote: I will fully support MMS and co if they go with this plan and not fire a single bullet. This is a great strategic foot hold.


I agree.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby Victor » 30 Dec 2008 08:34

somnath wrote:This is more than fantasy, its ludicrous! For India to maintain any meaningful number of troops in Afghanistan.., the most important "ally" has to be Pakistan!

Somnath bhai, this is GoI's response to the "Joint anti-terrorism mechanism" that was proposed by Pakistan earlier this month so pakis should give full support. Why Iran, we will go through Rawalpindi with PA's help, inshallah.
ISLAMABAD, Dec. 2 (Xinhua) -- Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said Tuesday that his country had offered full cooperation to India on the Mumbai attacks probe and proposed a joint anti-terrorism mechanism.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby shiv » 30 Dec 2008 08:35

But tell me detractors, why would this be a bad idea if we could get logistics set up right. OK maybe not 120,000 as planned - but 45000?

1) Is the idea bad because Indian troops will not be Muslims by and large?
2) Is it bad because Indians have no sense of history?
3) Is it bad because we are just not attuned to think in this way?
4) Is it bad because India is a poor country?
5) Is it bad because India is caste ridden country that suppresses minorities?
6) Is it bad because India has 2567000000 insurgencies?
7) Is it bad because we do not believe we are equipped for an out of country campaign (as were were in WW2)?

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby Arun_S » 30 Dec 2008 08:36

Shiv: Did you speak w/Mandeep Singh Bajwa to check credibility of this report?

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby vera_k » 30 Dec 2008 08:40

shiv wrote:OK maybe not 120,000 as planned - but 45000?


To be honest this amateur thought 120,000 was too little and closer to 200,000 are needed because the orbat.com folks say it will only get the total forces to 75% of what is needed in Afghanistan. 120,000 seems like a token half measure when seen in that context.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby NRao » 30 Dec 2008 08:41

I am not sure if the message is reaching.

The issue is about India engaging Pakistan, without allowing Pakistan to throw the next scare bomb. (I am being polite using the word "engaging".)

This is NOT about Muslim boots, not about Russia, not about what has happened in CAR, not about China and what she thinks.

I can understand the issue about supplying IA troops on a 2nd front (which it is not). But, I do recall a close friend of mine (a retired IA Captain) who used to say that IA can land with tooth picks and open a 2nd front. The only thing is that it has been some time since he said that and granted tooth picks are no longer in vogue.

This is not a trivial move - granted. BUT, it is equally not trivial for the Islamic Pakistan Army. For the first time they will HAVE to "defend" two borders, each with potentially 200,000 highly trained and motivated (NOT NATO) soldiers. And, we have not even started to talk of UAV, special ops, etc.

I feel that a MOVE to place 120,000 INDIAN troops in A'stan, another 200,000 on Indian border -un-mobilized (for obvious reasons) and IN - in support of US (NOT NATO) troops in A'stan + USN, should be enough to downgrade PA+ISI. I suspect there would be really no need to step across the border/s.

I would love to see a Paki Amby tell the US to vacate Paki properties currently being leased by the US.

IF the PA does not make a U-turn, then the next phase must be the decision of Pakistan as we know it - nothing short. The degrading of PA/ISI is the same - just a softer approach (which I really do not think will work).

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby Arun_S » 30 Dec 2008 08:42

shiv wrote:But tell me detractors, why would this be a bad idea if we could get logistics set up right. OK maybe not 120,000 as planned - but 45000


Idea is not bad, but an idea without the foundation of a bigger game plan and determination to win decisively, is well a bad idea!! I have not seen yet an evidence of the latter, hence I do not see merit. It has to be a packaged solution, not just 45,000 Indian faujies going to Afghanistan.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby shiv » 30 Dec 2008 08:44

Arun_S wrote:Shiv: Did you speak w/Mandeep Singh Bajwa to check credibility of this report?


Arun - you have met all my uncles whom I am in touch with :wink:

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby somnath » 30 Dec 2008 08:47

But tell me detractors, why would this be a bad idea if we could get logistics set up right. OK maybe not 120,000 as planned - but 45000


Thats a BIG if! And barring a sudden change of heart in Iran, the "if" is destined to remain as one mired in wistfulness! :)

And "maybe not 120,000 but 45,000" type thought processes is completely useless - only shows that we are not even clear about our objectives.

BTW, what would be our objective in Afghanistan, assuming (in a wet dream scenario) that we lick the logistics? Creat a greater Afghanistan by "taking over" NWFP? That would require us to work with the Taliban, as they are the current lord and master of the area on both sides of the Durand line. Or is it to protect the Hamid Karzai government? Which would make us the most underpaid mercenery in the world! Or would it be a regime change, replace Karzai with someone else? Do we have someone in mind?

And all this has nothing to do with rhetorical flourishes about our "inadequacies" - it is about hard strategic options.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby Singha » 30 Dec 2008 08:49

afaik the route from iran chah bahar port up north to helmand province (kandahar) should be completed
by now. so there exist a clear line of supply if we take over helmand area (which borders baluchistan).
if we get into kunduz, then supply chain has to be via tajikistan and uzbekistan mainly sourced from russia.
we have a long history of working with the tajiki northern alliance and gen dostum would have no objection
if we hand over 20 talibs/week for his mauser pistol practice :mrgreen:

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby NRao » 30 Dec 2008 08:50

BTW, what would be our objective in Afghanistan, assuming (in a wet dream scenario) that we lick the logistics? Creat a greater Afghanistan by "taking over" NWFP? That would require us to work with the Taliban, as they are the current lord and master of the area on both sides of the Durand line. Or is it to protect the Hamid Karzai government? Which would make us the most underpaid mercenery in the world! Or would it be a regime change, replace Karzai with someone else? Do we have someone in mind?


How about a very simple goal: break up PA+ISI - remove all their teeth and make them impotent?

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby Yogi_G » 30 Dec 2008 08:50

shiv wrote:But tell me detractors, why would this be a bad idea if we could get logistics set up right. OK maybe not 120,000 as planned - but 45000?

1) Is the idea bad because Indian troops will not be Muslims by and large?
2) Is it bad because Indians have no sense of history?
3) Is it bad because we are just not attuned to think in this way?
4) Is it bad because India is a poor country?
5) Is it bad because India is caste ridden country that suppresses minorities?
6) Is it bad because India has 2567000000 insurgencies?
7) Is it bad because we do not believe we are equipped for an out of country campaign (as were were in WW2)?


While I wait to hear for the confirmation of the orbat report I couldnt resist the temptation to post a reply :twisted:

Shivji, my greatest concern is the cost of such a large deployment, it is going to be immensely expensive, and I dont think this will be a short campaign, will be a long one. Can we afford such a deployment? Will we deplete our coffers in doing so? Casualties though a concern, is not the show-stopper, I bet Indians in general will agree that we go for an all-out do or die attack to eradicate terrorism completely than be bled slowly at home by terrorist attacks....

I just hope such a mission doesn't become our Vietnam or Iraq or ironically Afghanistan...Exit strategy hence is very important...

Many years ago when there was talk in the media about India possibly sending troops to A'nistan, there was an article in the Hindu that would our troops become the Unkil's chowkidaars? Our biggest challenge is to convince our media and the "secularists" that India will be going to pursue its agenda and not Amrikhan's....

OT: One thing we have to do when our troops get there, threaten Karzai to change the name of his country to a shorter sweeter one, Afghanistan is too long to type in discussion forums and "A'nistan" kind of reminds one of a bodily cavity deep down in the south when typing it :(( .

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby shiv » 30 Dec 2008 08:52

somnath wrote:
But tell me detractors, why would this be a bad idea if we could get logistics set up right. OK maybe not 120,000 as planned - but 45000


Thats a BIG if! And barring a sudden change of heart in Iran, the "if" is destined to remain as one mired in wistfulness! :)

And "maybe not 120,000 but 45,000" type thought processes is completely useless - only shows that we are not even clear about our objectives.

BTW, what would be our objective in Afghanistan, assuming (in a wet dream scenario) that we lick the logistics? Creat a greater Afghanistan by "taking over" NWFP? That would require us to work with the Taliban, as they are the current lord and master of the area on both sides of the Durand line. Or is it to protect the Hamid Karzai government? Which would make us the most underpaid mercenery in the world! Or would it be a regime change, replace Karzai with someone else? Do we have someone in mind?

And all this has nothing to do with rhetorical flourishes about our "inadequacies" - it is about hard strategic options.



I think the best objective would be to protect Karzai while we allow half his country to be taken over by the Taliban and let them take over half of Pakistan to make Pashtunistan. Rhetorically speaking, are you saying that Karzai is less valuable than some of our politicians. The salary is the same.

The US is doing worse. It is protecting Karzai and protecting the Paki army so that the Taliban gets Afghanistan but not Pakistan. This is wrong. It should be possible to sucker the US because the US are suckers for people who genuinely desire to sucker them.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby Muppalla » 30 Dec 2008 08:57

Singha wrote:if we get into kunduz, then supply chain has to be via tajikistan and uzbekistan mainly sourced from russia.
we have a long history of working with the tajiki northern alliance and gen dostum would have no objection
if we hand over 20 talibs/week for his mauser pistol practice :mrgreen:


This is a good idea.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby somnath » 30 Dec 2008 09:06

This has to be the most fantastic idea ever floated. Typically - strategic rationale for any military capability should proceed as follows:

Objectives - logistics - capability

In this case, our objectives are not clear (barring half baked lets divide Pakistan), logistics non-existent..But we are talking about our capabilities!! :roll:

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby sunilUpa » 30 Dec 2008 09:17

Fantastic idea! Now the real fun begins.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby shiv » 30 Dec 2008 09:19

somnath wrote:This has to be the most fantastic idea ever floated. Typically - strategic rationale for any military capability should proceed as follows:

Objectives - logistics - capability

In this case, our objectives are not clear (barring half baked lets divide Pakistan), logistics non-existent..But we are talking about our capabilities!! :roll:


Somnath - let me use the very type of argument that I frown upon and condemn - i.e. "torn shirt vs open fly"

The idea of troops in Afghanistan is worthy of consideration at least because it is more realistic and achievable that "bringing democracy to Pakistan" and "setting up a joint terror mechanism".

I admit that just because these two are bad - it does not make the idea of troops ion Afghanistan good but look at the positive side

1) We can also do a pathetic cop out like the US and NATO and allow the Taliban to control Southern Afghanistan so that they have bases from which they can attack Pakistan and carve out their country.

2) We can to a wink wink nudge nudge to the Pashtuns to set right the historic injustice of dividing their lands

3) We can give the Pakistan army a real job to do in the North west. Any Paki targets we hit from there can be blamed on "Taliban", "NATO" or "US"

Still talking objectives - nothing else.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby Rahul M » 30 Dec 2008 09:22

shiv ji, isn't the thread title a little misleading ?
don't think it is certain by any means that we are sending that many troops to afghanistan.

here's my take : superficially it might look like a good idea but the devil lies in the details.
it might not look that good an idea if we start losing men regularly to ambushes and bombings for questionable strategic gains.
lack of airpower will be a major concern.

about strategic gains, it might be a better idea to draw the TSPA east of indus so that the western areas can go to the dogs w/o TSPA being able to do anything about it.
deploying soldiers to afghanistan and acting against taliban will get all jehadi elements in TSP working with TSPA which would be a major setback for us and gain for pak.

@ssridhar sahab,
what would you think the pakhtun reaction will be of such a development. will they work with us against pakistan ?

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby shiv » 30 Dec 2008 09:25

Rahul M wrote:shiv ji, isn't the thread title a little misleading ?



It is totally misleading. It's work will be done when Google and Yahoo bots and the media pick it up.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby Rahul M » 30 Dec 2008 09:27

I think I understand.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby Nayak » 30 Dec 2008 09:28

AoA,

If there are yindoo boots on the ground then what will the line of action be ?

Will they have armor support ?
Will they have air cover ?
What will the area of operations to conduct patrolling ?
What will be the objectives of setting up camp ?
What will be the period of setting up base ?
What will be type of heavy weapons support ?

Just putting myself in the torn hawai chappals of mango-aadmi ......

Added Later: Watch the Deaf and dumb fora go ape-$hit over this 'report'..... :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby AnantD » 30 Dec 2008 09:38

The best military solution, IMHO is:

1. The US does a about face and declares TSP as TS of P.
2. Then knocks out its AF, Navy and Sams/mizzile/Nuke facilities, effectively in 2 days, in a massive show of technology. This does not involve any ground troops, and I'm sure India will oblige, in every way, including adding its own firepower as needed.
3. Start overflying TSP airspace, nothing to fear, no permissions needed.
4. Use India to put pressure everytime TSPA makes any threatening moves, i.e. keep TSPA on the move and on its toes.
5. This will bring TSP to its knees, along with the ensuing blockade and they will have to cede territory, that will be returned after the GWOT is over, maybe never. This will include Azad Kashmir, Gwadar and parts of Baluchistan so a land route from Balochistan to Kandahar can be established from Gwadar directly, in case Iran has a change of mind mid-course. All Pakis to clear out of these areas. The FATA areas and the supply route corridor will be a free war zone and TSPA can stay far, far away or get bombed where they least expect it. Anyone that strays within 50 km on either side of the supply corridor is dead meat.

Practically speaking, its do-able, except for the UN and the sovereignity issue, both minor in relationship to the risks the world faces from TSP.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby pgbhat » 30 Dec 2008 09:48

I just hope apna bharat doesnt become unkil's b!tch on this one.

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby somnath » 30 Dec 2008 09:50

1) We can also do a pathetic cop out like the US and NATO and allow the Taliban to control Southern Afghanistan so that they have bases from which they can attack Pakistan and carve out their country.

2) We can to a wink wink nudge nudge to the Pashtuns to set right the historic injustice of dividing their lands

3) We can give the Pakistan army a real job to do in the North west. Any Paki targets we hit from there can be blamed on "Taliban", "NATO" or "US"


1. In this objective, we actually "supplant" the US/NATO forces in Afghanistan. Why? the US is not pulling out of the place anytime soon, in fact is seriously talking about ramping up. So this objective is being fulfilled for us quite nicely by the colaition forces already!

2. Ditto as above - dont think the US is doing a lot to prevent pushtuns from carving out their own territories in NWFP.

3. So hitting Paki targets in the west is our objective. But there are hardly any "targets" in that arid region, barring military formations. The US again is doing a pretty good job of hitting them, but more importantly, the Taliban is screwing the hell out of them! :) So what incremental value add will our troops do, compared to the costs?

The above three are quite frankly not well thought out "objectives" for putting large numbers of boots on the ground in a remote territory.

Afghanistan is really "special ops"/intel territory. And by all accounts (at least by Paki accounts, which should mean a lot!), we are doing pretty well in terms of keeping the Paki Army and state off balance there through a mix of intel and economic levers. Dont understand the efficiacy of large scale boots on the ground!

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Re: India to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Postby khan » 30 Dec 2008 10:00

One Article in ORBAT. Is there any corroboration?

I think it would behoove this august group to find some corroboration before building castles in the air.


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