India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 17 Feb 2009 07:40

ShauryaT wrote:From acorn.nationalinterest.in

That strategic move has been out there for some time now. We have argued that India’s “strategic response must be to engage the jihadi adversary in Afghanistan.” Richard Holbrooke’s statement in New Delhi today indicates that the United States is open to the idea. India should offer.

Thanks Shaurya. Do you have a link to Holbrooke's statement in New Delhi?

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 17 Feb 2009 07:47

Rudradev wrote:Thanks Shaurya. Do you have a link to Holbrooke's statement in New Delhi?

It is a general statement, that "India, US and TSP are facing the same enemy for the first time, blah, blah" pregnant with meaning or just hot air, who knows, it is plastered all over the desi news channels.

Richard Holbrooke, the US envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, calls Pakistan-based militants a common threat to India, the US and Pakistan.

kasthuri · Post by **kasthuri** » 17 Feb 2009 09:08

Don't know if this was posted in BR but its related to this thread.

America plays Afghan card

America plays Afghan card
K.P. NAYAR

Washington, Feb. 12: Pakistan acknowledged the authorship of the Mumbai terror plot within its territory after US President Barack Obama spoke to his counterpart in Islamabad, Asif Ali Zardari, on Wednesday.

Obama timed his very first contact with Zardari after being sworn in President three weeks ago to coincide with a visit to South Asia by Richard Holbrooke, his special envoy on Pakistan and Afghanistan, who shook things up in Islamabad the previous day and prepared the ground for a call from the White House, according to officials who spoke on background.

That prevented Zardari from dwelling on niceties and inanities that he is famous for and the Obama-Zardari talk was strictly business, sources here said.

Obama intervened after Pakistan’s foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi ominously told a media conference on Tuesday that “there are some irreconcilable elements and nobody wants to deal with them, neither Pakistan, Afghanistan or the US”.

Qureshi’s unexplained reference to “irreconcilable elements” is said to be an effort by Holbrooke to hold Zardari to account on his statement to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New York last September that Pakistan would not object to Indian presence in Afghanistan if it is for stabilising that country.

India has so far made no public mention of Zardari’s remarks to Singh, but it is clear that New Delhi briefed Washington on the New York talks between the two leaders.

It is most likely that Zardari did not mean what he said, but was trying to better the atmosphere at his meeting with Singh: Benazir Bhutto’s widower is famous for such tactics.

What Zardari told Singh will be red rag to the Army General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, but Holbrooke appears to have used it to get the Pakistani President where he wants him to be in order to secure concessions and easing tension with India.

Sources here said the attack on Mumbai figured only in passing in talks between Holbrooke and Pakistani leaders, but the US envoy made it plain that he was not averse to greater Indian activism in Afghanistan as Zardari proposed and also in association with Nato.

The message from Washington was clear. Pakistan must demonstrate that it is serious in dealing with terror threats against the entire region, including India, or else, India’s stakes in the Obama administration’s regional approach to ending terror in Afghanistan will be legitimate.

At his September meeting with Singh, Zardari is also said to have floated the grandiose idea of a regional conference on Afghanistan, which will bring India, Pakistan, Nato and the US together.

Understandably, India has been scrupulously silent about Zardari’s idea. It would raise a storm of domestic protest ahead of the elections in India from the BJP to the CPM on the ground that New Delhi is moving away from not working with any military bloc.

But Holbrooke danced around the proposal in Islamabad, more in the context of an intra-Afghan dialogue ahead of the August election that may replace President Hamid Karzai.

It would be a revised version of the Bonn conference on Afghanistan in 2001 where Indians played a role, as the US envoy saw it.

The underlying message of Pakistan’s belated action against the Mumbai plotters is that its civilian government, the army and the intelligence agencies are prepared to make concessions to India on cross-border terrorism in order to preserve Pakistan’s “strategic depth” in Afghanistan.

On the day he was appointed as special envoy, in his very first remarks, Holbrooke said: “I will say that in putting Afghanistan and Pakistan together under one envoy, we should underscore that we fully respect the fact that Pakistan has its own history, its own traditions, and it is far more than the turbulent, dangerous tribal areas on its western border. And we will respect that.”

This week in Pakistan, Holbrooke made it clear to Zardari and others that he is prepared to rewrite history unless Islamabad acted.

For now, it is a tactic that has yielded some result. But then, in its dealings with Washington, Islamabad has ultimately excelled in the feat of the tail wagging the dog.

There was intense diplomatic curiosity here yesterday that Obama called the Pakistani President even as his special envoy was on the ground in that country. Pakistan’s action today explains the unusual phone call from the White House.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 17 Feb 2009 09:15

Preparations for a withdrawal?
Alternative Futures for Afghanistan and the Stability of Southwest

17.02.2009
09:00 - 18:00

Alternative Futures for Afghanistan and the Stability of Southwest

Alliance of Liberal and Democrats for Europe
Rue Wiertz
B-1047 Brussels
Phone: +32 2 284 21 11
Fax: +32 2 230 24 85
Email: aldegroup@europarl.europa.eu

Rinaldi Niccolo
Phone: +32 2 284 20 73
Email: niccolo.rinaldi@europarl.europa.eu

Contact

European Parliament, ASP 5G3
Rue Wiertz 60
1047 Brussels

Location of event

On February 17th, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) in cooperation with the EastWest Institute will convene high-level experts and policy makers to address security challenges in Afghanistan and Southwest Asia. This one day consultation will bring together public and private sector leaders from Afghanistan, its six neighboring countries, and remote powers such as the USA, the EU, Russia, and India. The turmoil in Afghanistan and Northwest Pakistan is one of the greatest security challenges of our time.

The EastWest Institute and the European Parliament will meet this challenge by bringing together a broad range of stakeholders for frank discussions that reframe the debate on Afghan security and develop new strategies to bring peace to Afghanistan.

The consultation will draw participants from Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, India, Russia, the European Union, and the United States. Discussions will continue on February 18 and 19 at the EastWest Institute’s Worldwide Security Conference

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Feb 2009 21:11

US and Russia see common cause by M K Bhadrakumar: Asia Times Online

A dalliance doubtless began in Germany when US Vice President Joseph Biden said while addressing the annual Munich conference on February 7 that it was "time to press the reset button" and revisit the several areas where the US and Russia could work together. To be sure, there were elements in Biden's speech that were forceful, such as when he said the US "will not recognize any nation having a sphere of influence" or when he reasserted US support for Georgia and Ukraine's bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

But, on the whole, Biden signaled Obama's readiness to take a different tone in dealing with Russia. Moscow promptly embraced the overture. "What we've heard lately from representatives of the new US administration with regard to the future of Russian-American relations has received a positive reaction in the Kremlin," a Russian spokesperson said, adding, "Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is ready for thorough and joint work on the entire agenda of bilateral cooperation."

The first to arrive was US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Patrick Moon. His mission was to try to negotiate a deal with Moscow to open new supply routes across Russian territory for NATO forces in Afghanistan. A pleasant surprise awaited Moon - the Russians readily agreed. By Friday, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was explaining, "We confirmed without delay that we are ready to do this ... and this transit will go ahead within the next few days."

The agreement envisages that the US will reach its container cargoes for Afghanistan at the Baltic port of Riga, Latvia. From there, the containers will be transshipped by rail across Russia and Kazakhstan and further either via Uzbekistan or via Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Moscow is committed to processing each American transit request within 24 hours.

Besides, Iran is a difficult country and while a policy of engagement is feasible, there is huge uncertainty as to where such a process would end up. Moscow's help may prove useful.

Indeed, this very possibility worries Tehran. The official Iranian news agency lashed out at Burns' visit to Moscow as a diabolic move to "involve Russia in the West's game against Iran". It comes as a setback to Tehran that Lavrov announced during a visit to Israel on Monday that Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon would be excluded from the Middle East peace conference Moscow is holding. Lavrov said the conference would be restricted to the participants of the Annapolis meet in the US in November 2007, which excluded Iran as well. Tehran gets an early opportunity to probe the new layout, as Defense Minister General Mostafa Mohammad Najjar began an official visit to Russia on Monday.

Considering that Russia too has been hard hit by the economic downturn, Russia is also more open to US overtures.

An entente with Russia does give Obama the necessary leeway to come down harder on the Pakistanis, w.r.t. their role in Afghanistan and international terrorism.

A strengthened Indian role in Afghanistan also becomes possible as America makes space for Russia in Afghanistan, a player India must have as a partner in Afghanistan, if we wish to play a more ambitious role there.

It would indeed be heaven-sent if Khatami were to win the Iranian elections, because then most of the pieces will be in place, but that possibility is next to zero, but I could be wrong.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Feb 2009 21:52

The window is closing pretty fast for us to wait for "An entente with Russia" IMHO. The cost would escalate as time goes by.

The problem is not the Taliban, but those elements within the TSPA that are using these yahoos to consolidate their own positions. There are two things in play here: the local and islamic dynamics - islamic laws, etc and the elements within the TSPA that have a more regional or even a larger plan and islamic dynamics. Both have the component of islam as a universal solution, but the immediate goals (one local and the other covering a larger geographic area) are slightly different. Once the Swat area is consolidated we can expect the growing demand to repeat this agreement on more regions within and without Pakistan.

Do not be surprised if the UK becomes one of the early geographic areas where such demands are made.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Feb 2009 22:09

NRao ji,

All that you mention is within Pakistani Territory or in AfPak region.

American drones sometimes do bomb here and there, but for the most, the reach of the 'civilized world' in those areas is severely limited. There is nothing what India or USA can do against Pakistani Establishment making space for the fundoos.

As far as Swat is concerned, TSPA consolidating control over Swat, an area within TSP proper, is weird. It is like Indian Army bringing Agra under India's control.

I for one, am extremely pleased about the Swat Agreement. If it is replicated over all FATA and NWFP, it means TSP has handed over formal control over these territories to the Taliban. For me, the interesting question is, what do the Pakjabis do when the Taliban start venturing into Pakjab proper. Do the Whiskey-Commanders hit back or do they start acquiescing to further demands.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Feb 2009 23:22

we are nearly on the same page.

For me, the interesting question is, what do the Pakjabis do when the Taliban start venturing into Pakjab proper. Do the Whiskey-Commanders hit back or do they start acquiescing to further demands.

That is what I call "window closing".

The only place I differ is that I think there are Pakjabis that are NOT whiskey-Commanders, those who are actually manipulating to get a Swat under Taliban control and would eliminate the Whiskey-Commanders in order to see an orderly take over of the entire PakiLand by the Taliban. These guys are really Taliban employed by PA. Like Hamas pervades all aspects of Palestinian society, so too are these Talibans in TSPA.

(This does lead directly into what you stated - what will the Whisky-Commanders do? From my read of what the UK is preparing to do, they have given up hope that these WCs will do anything.)

Also, with this Swat "deal", I do not think any Indian presence in A'stan can be for A'stan-building. And, BEFORE India THINKS of sending any troops to places outside India, India better do far better than what they are doing today - within India. The Indian politicianS needs to wake up.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 17 Feb 2009 23:49

NRao wrote: Like Hamas pervades all aspects of Palestinian society

In what way do you mean that?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Feb 2009 00:47

The Head Masters, clerks in a post office, teachers, policemen, coolies, etc, etc, etc are all Hamas"ies". When Israel entered the WB the arg was how can they take out Hamas when "Hamas" is all over in all shapes and forms. A Hamas "fighter" could be a teacher during the day.

In the same way, there are Talibanis in the PA. These guys have been there before the Taliban was created, but now have turned to the Taliban philosophy.

I think there are three categories in PakiLand: the "civilian", TSPA and Taliban. The Whiskey is shared by the first two and Islam-as-a-universal-resolver by the latter two. As in Swat, it is a matter of replacing the "civilian" with "Islamist".

the solution has to be to tame the TSPA. No way out. Taliban cannot be defeated - they are fluid enough not to be identified as an entity (UN, bank accounts, etc are useless against them) and they have institutional and military support from the PA. Remove the PA and we may have a chance with the other tools.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 18 Feb 2009 01:05

NRao wrote:The Head Masters, clerks in a post office, teachers, policemen, coolies, etc, etc, etc are all Hamas"ies". When Israel entered the WB the arg was how can they take out Hamas when "Hamas" is all over in all shapes and forms. A Hamas "fighter" could be a teacher during the day.

In the same way, there are Talibanis in the PA. These guys have been there before the Taliban was created, but now have turned to the Taliban philosophy.

I think there are three categories in PakiLand: the "civilian", TSPA and Taliban. The Whiskey is shared by the first two and Islam-as-a-universal-resolver by the latter two. As in Swat, it is a matter of replacing the "civilian" with "Islamist".

the solution has to be to tame the TSPA. No way out. Taliban cannot be defeated - they are fluid enough not to be identified as an entity (UN, bank accounts, etc are useless against them) and they have institutional and military support from the PA. Remove the PA and we may have a chance with the other tools.

Taming, if I understand your meaning, will only result in temporary concessions and tactical withdrawals, and the same game once the pressure is off. I don't see anything short of comprehensive crushing defeat of the PA as producing fundamental change.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Feb 2009 02:21

NRao Ji,

That is precisely the 64 million dollar question, putting in Americanese.

In the end, who wins the battle within the TSPA, the Whiskey-Commanders or the Taliban-Sympathizers?

If the Whiskey-Commanders win, then the best-case scenario could be:
something similar to what happened to the Ottoman Empire. It was dissolved on 1st of November, 1922, and a year later Turkey was established. Similarly, Pakistan is dissolved, and the Pakistani Army retreats to the borders of Pakjab and establish the independent state of Republic of West Punjab. They purge the whole Army of Taliban sympathizers. They Kemalize the whole society. They de-nuke under pressure from all around. They establish a common peace and security treaty with India.

If the Taliban-Sympathizers in Pakistani Army win, the worst-case scenario would be:
The whole of Pakistan expands into the current area of Pakistan and Afghanistan, with new areas of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kashmir also coming under their sway. It is ruled by the most radical of Islamic forces, all swearing their allegiance to Al Qaida. They get the possession of nuclear weapons. They spread terrorism into India, Europe, America, Middle East, Moon, all the way to Alpha Centauri. They do credible blackmail with their new weapons. They earn their money from narcotic trafficking. Sooner or later, they start blackmailing the Indian State.

I think, that the destiny of the Indian Subcontinent will be decided in Peshawar. As and when Peshawar falls, if the Whiskey-Commanders declare all out war against the Taliban, then there is a real chance.

On the Pakjabi side, as a consequence of this conflict, the Whiskey Commanders would have to purge all the Taliban sympathizers from the soon-to-become Pakjabi Army. Sooner or later the WC would lose the war for Peshawar and retreat. This war would then be portrayed as a Pushtun-Pakjabi War. In order to stem the tide of losses, they will start a drive to Kemalize the society, on the back of Pakjabi Nationalism.

On the Pushtuni side too, some things would have to go according to the favorable script. The Pushtuni Nationalists within the Taliban would have to declare Pushtunistan. If they do not, then there is no chance, that the Taliban will ever allow Pushtuni Nationalists the upper hand, for then the Talibanistan would cover both Pakistan and Afghanistan, and they too would have to use the glue of Islam to keep this multi-ethnic state together.

If this war does not take place, and the TSPA again signs a deal with the militants as in Swat, then the West of India is gone to Al Qaida. The Taliban-Sympathizers in the TSPA will kick out the Whiskey-Commanders as you suggested and take over.

So the break up of Pakistan is important, not only to check-mate TSPA and its obsession with India and tendency to use whatever means necessary to spite India, but also to avoid the next Frankenstein Monster gaining control of the whole of Pakistan and Afghanistan and then threatening India.

This wish the BRFites have (except renukb, of course) of seeing Pakistan break-up is actually a very very dangerous wish. If the Peshawar War happens, India and the world can come out of it with some benefits (Pushtunistan will still be under the Taliban). However if the Pakistani Army cower and do not go out to fight, then all is lost. Russian Roulet indeed.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 18 Feb 2009 03:37

Meanwhile the news is that USA might send in 17,000 troops.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Feb 2009 04:44

Taming, if I understand your meaning, ...............

India will have no choice but to intervene. I am talking of a "crushing defeat" you mention. Not an easy solution, but will only get worse as time goes by.

RA,

I will buy your Alpha Centauri angle. For sure that is what the Islamists want. The US has missed this angle or more likely are drinking the same Whiskey.

Whiskey Commanders are not equipped to deal with insurgents (ironically they are equipped to generate more of them). PA has nothing in its inventory (hardware and philosophy) to deal with them. All things have been bought to fight India - actually defend against India (looks like they gave up on that tea-lunch-dinner thinking some time back).

At this time, I for one, am not concerned about what happens within PakiLand. What I am extremely concerned about the US Chai-biscut attitude. Holbrooke IMHO was a failure even before he got started. We track the NY Stock market "since Obama got into office". Track what has happened since H has been appoint the Czar of AfPak. Which is why I feel that the ONLY out H has is to get India to bear the brunt of his mess.

JM rambling Ts.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Feb 2009 04:54

............ coming out of the woodwork ........

NATO Cautions Pakistan Over Talks with the Taliban

Obama to Send 17,000 More Troops to Afghanistan

Afghan Civilian Deaths Rose 40 Percent in 2008

Islamic Law Instituted In Pakistan's Swat Valley

and, of xourse a new twist to everything Islamic:

In announcing the agreement, Pakistani officials asserted that the adoption of sharia law would bring swift and fair justice to the Swat Valley, where people have long complained of legal corruption and delays. They said the new system would have "nothing in common" with the draconian rule of the Taliban militia that ran Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, during which thieves' hands were amputated and adulterers were stoned to death.

Pakistan is NOT Afghanistan. It is more educated and civil.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Feb 2009 05:05

RajeshA, the Ottomon Army went back to barracks because there was a two hundred years reflection on why the lost at Vienna in 1688? The Young Turk movement was a product o that reflection from around 1880s. Read Lord Kinross on Ottomon Chronicles or Bernard Lewis on the subject. The Ottomons knew they had to change in order to survive. Unfortunately the TSP wants to turn backwards to survive. This is the meaing of all that Nazariya -e- Pakistan type of reflection.

When the battle of Peshawar happens again, the TSPA will throw away their uniforms and join the Talibanis.

And the Pakjabis will genefluect to the black flag. They always bow to superior force for that is how they survive.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 18 Feb 2009 05:48

Ramana, Rajesh,

If you want the textbook case of how a military regime accomodates the rising force of revolutionary Islamism, look at Sudan.

The generals appointed the Muslim Brotherhood types to government positions, and declared an Islamic revolution. Eventually they locked up Turabi when he tried to take too large of a share of power. In the end the Islamic revolution was less than it appeared - the army was still fundamentally in charge. Of course people from the Army establishment compete with each other for power, but that's another matter.

The Pakjabis generals of the PA will let the Taliban run anyplace where the Taliban has more respect and legitimacy than the Pakistani state and will declare the 'good' Taliban to be their patriotic partners. Everywhere else - wherever Pakjabis are the majority for example, the PA will remain the chief power. If they have to declare themselves committed to sharia or whatever in order to maintain popular legitimacy, they'll do that. After all when have the specifics of a value system been more important than maintaining privilege and power? Wasnt that after all fundamentally why the Muslim elite supported the formation of Pakistan?

The only thing that can delay that process is the volume of American money. If its more profitable to be 'progressive', the Pakistani elite will endlessly declare their commitments to enlightenment and so forth. Of course the closer the Taliban get, the higher the price. There is a few years ahead the place where the price will exceed the wilingness to pay for it, and we are going to see the return of the Ziaists. Maybe Hamid Gul will finally get that shot at the big chair he's always wanted.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 18 Feb 2009 07:25

When Hamil Gul gets the big chair, he will only enjoy it very briefly. India knows his inclinations and eagerness to start a war with India. Indian leaders will either have to make a choice: take him out by covert means or confront Pakistan on a war footing.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 18 Feb 2009 09:39

Johann wrote:Ramana, Rajesh,

If you want the textbook case of how a military regime accomodates the rising force of revolutionary Islamism, look at Sudan.

The generals appointed the Muslim Brotherhood types to government positions, and declared an Islamic revolution. Eventually they locked up Turabi when he tried to take too large of a share of power. In the end the Islamic revolution was less than it appeared - the army was still fundamentally in charge. Of course people from the Army establishment compete with each other for power, but that's another matter.

The Pakjabis generals of the PA will let the Taliban run anyplace where the Taliban has more respect and legitimacy than the Pakistani state and will declare the 'good' Taliban to be their patriotic partners. Everywhere else - wherever Pakjabis are the majority for example, the PA will remain the chief power. If they have to declare themselves committed to sharia or whatever in order to maintain popular legitimacy, they'll do that. After all when have the specifics of a value system been more important than maintaining privilege and power? Wasnt that after all fundamentally why the Muslim elite supported the formation of Pakistan?

The only thing that can delay that process is the volume of American money. If its more profitable to be 'progressive', the Pakistani elite will endlessly declare their commitments to enlightenment and so forth. Of course the closer the Taliban get, the higher the price. There is a few years ahead the place where the price will exceed the wilingness to pay for it, and we are going to see the return of the Ziaists. Maybe Hamid Gul will finally get that shot at the big chair he's always wanted.

This is a very good analysis and I had predicted this before few years ago.

The only thing that can delay that process is the volume of American money. If its more profitable to be 'progressive', the Pakistani elite will endlessly declare their commitments to enlightenment and so forth.

This bargain which is going on is actually played by both parties US and Pakistan.
US has to finally bring this to end and create a situation to clean the region. This has reached a point of no return.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 18 Feb 2009 11:11

India has provided enough rope to Islamist Jihadis and their backers in WEST to hang themselves . Onlee one will remain, thanks to the action of inaction . WEST forgot its better to have wise enemy than a faithfool GUBO maid .

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 18 Feb 2009 14:05

The US towel throwing thread seems to have served its purpose and disappeared -- meanwhile the Atlantisict pro-Chinese pro-dictator lobby in US led by the Clintons seem to be working over time for their biggest fund raisers

Afghanistan can become Obama's Vietnam: Clinton

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Feb 2009 16:27

ramana wrote:RajeshA, the Ottomon Army went back to barracks because there was a two hundred years reflection on why the lost at Vienna in 1688? The Young Turk movement was a product o that reflection from around 1880s. Read Lord Kinross on Ottomon Chronicles or Bernard Lewis on the subject. The Ottomons knew they had to change in order to survive. Unfortunately the TSP wants to turn backwards to survive. This is the meaing of all that Nazariya -e- Pakistan type of reflection.

Ramana ji,

The best case scenario I mentioned earlier is of course based on sacks full optimism, that the Whiskey-Commanders remember that their balls are not just for decoration, but as you mention that would be like waiting for Godot.

You mention, that the Ottoman took a long time to ponder over their weaknesses, before they finally arrived at the realization. They probably came to realize, they need to follow the European route of secularism in order to make scientific and technical advancements for military strength.

IMO, the Pakistani Army was never forced to think on those lines. They have always found more rationale in moving in the other direction.
1. Faith in Islam gave the Pakistanis both the financing from Saudi Arabia and the resolve to counter Hindu India, which was necessary to build their nuclear deterrent.
2. Deceit and Prostitution allowed them to hoodwink the West and talk them into complacency, and at the same time get the Dragon to give them the nuclear bombs.
3. Their Islamic Credentials made them a useful rentier state for the West, who were willing to gift them all sorts of modern military hardware.
4. They have seen how the Mujahideen and Taliban, with only the message of Islam, have brought down both Soviet Union and NATO in Afghanistan.
4. The Pakis see how Al Qaida way can put terror into the hearts of USA and Europe.
5. The Pakis notice how Muslim societies have been able to make a beachhead in Europe, through marriage and asylum-based immigration and rabbit-like procreation.
6. One sees how the mighty West have been bending backwards to appease their Muslims.

So for the Pakis, Islam is a winning formula. They are militarily strong, have a nuclear deterrent, and have hordes of Jihadis at their disposal for asymmetric warfare and terrorism.

The one variable for the Pakistanis is the radicalism level of Islam, they will accept. As mentioned by Johann

Johann wrote:The only thing that can delay that process is the volume of American money. If its more profitable to be 'progressive', the Pakistani elite will endlessly declare their commitments to enlightenment and so forth. Of course the closer the Taliban get, the higher the price. There is a few years ahead the place where the price will exceed the wilingness to pay for it, and we are going to see the return of the Ziaists. Maybe Hamid Gul will finally get that shot at the big chair he's always wanted.

As long as national conscience of a Pakistani is based on his broad Pakistani identity, pan-Islamic thinking and acceptance of several more degrees of radicalization would be acceptable.

The only hope remains in the strength of the ethnic identity of the Pakjabi. The Kurds have fought against Arabs, Turks, Persians to preserve their ethnic identity and sovereignty. In Iraqi Kurdistan, they have even been able to introduce even a mini economic boom. Is the Pakjabi willing to be counted. Will he fight back? You mention:

ramana wrote:When the battle of Peshawar happens again, the TSPA will throw away their uniforms and join the Talibanis.

And the Pakjabis will genefluect to the black flag. They always bow to superior force for that is how they survive.

That depends on the perception of own strength. That strength derives to some extent from
a. history of successes against the others (feeds into strength of the psyche),
b. membership of a strong coalition
c. combat-readiness

History of successes against the others
To enforce that, one would have to take the help of the media. What comes to my mind is, that one needs to glorify those legends who have been able to subdue or withstand the Pushtuns, legends like Maharaja Ranjit Singh and Ahmad Shah Massoud. The aura of the Pushtun needs to be deflated a bit. What I would love to see, is these two legends brought to the silver screen as magnus opi, on the scale of Richard Attenborough's Gandhi, Ben Hûr and Gladiator, each made with over 200 million dollars. Of course, this is not a solution for Pakistan, but I like the direction. Too bad, I don't have that kind of money.

Secondly we need a lot more articles and video documentaries on Taliban brutality on the air. Right now, Pakistanis are still receiving Indian TV channels. So why do we not show such documentaries? Why don't we show more documentaries on the barbarity, which is about to take over. Nandita Das gets awards for her Godhra Riots film, but why are documentaries on beheadings not in the running?

Thirdly, we need a concerted campaign, which says
a. Taliban is Pushtun, and not Islam
b. Taliban are descending upon Pakjab
c. Pakistani Army have no balls, and only wear bangles (My apologies to the women, here)

We need sort of documentaries and films on a possible future, where the Taliban have taken over Pakjab, and all the Whiskey-Commanders are being put on the lampposts, and their women are being dragged through the streets by their hair naked to the neighborhood square to be stoned or are having to marry some bearded uneducated Taliban militants. The more graphic the better.

Membership of a Strong Coalition
I am of the view that India needs to open channels of communication to the Pakjabi Whiskey-Commanders. Actually we need to beat the Pakistan out of them and Pakjab into them, which is a little bit of a balancing act. They need to be made very conscious of the fact, that there is an alternative for them, other than Pakistan, especially a Pakistan, not under their control, but that of the Taliban and Taliban-Sympathizers in the TSPA.

The alternative can be a Pakjab that can be a modern moderate Muslim country aligned with India, and part of the international community. Pakjabis would be able to travel the world without being despised and looked down in contempt. They need to be made aware of what is really at stake for Pakjab.

They have to be assured, that if they are willing to put up a fight with the Taliban by not allowing them to enter an independent Pakjab, and willing to kemalize the Pakjabi society, then India, the West and the rest would stand by them, with everything possible.

They also need to be told, that they need to get off the Pakistani Bus, because soon the Taliban and their sympathizers will be sitting in the driver's seat. The next couple of years, would show them, just how much truth there is in this.

Pakjab should fly a flag with Johnny Walker Whiskey Bottle on it, and let it be their symbol of independence. (Awright, just joking here)

I think, that the Indian Military and GoI still have not many contacts within the the Pakistani Army, which is in my view, dangerous. Perhaps Musharraf can help there. After all he should be of some little use, after we have been offering him so many Pakoras and Samosas in India.

Secondly, I personally do not view the work of those Indians, who want to improve people-to-people contacts with Pakjabis, as dhimmitude. One should however differentiate between Pakistan-apologists in India and the inter-Punjabi people-to-people track. I consider the later, as reinforcing the Punjabi identity of the Pakjabis, which is a good thing, and should not be stopped.

Combat-Readiness
USA has been making noises, that they want to move the Pakistani Army from viewing India as their main adversary to becoming a fighting force against the Taliban. This aspect, I believe, has not been given due importance in BRF. I am fully in favor of supporting such a strategy by the US.

Where I differ from the US plans, is that the Pakjabi Army should not be used in fighting against the Taliban on the Durand Line, in FATA, in Swat, or the rest of NWFP. That would not in India's interests, as that would only delay the break-up of Pakistan. They should be rather trained and prepared for fighting the Taliban in Pakjab Proper. For that the Army needs a true reorientation, and any success the US has in this regard can be useful for India also.

As mentioned by NRao ji:

NRao wrote:Whiskey Commanders are not equipped to deal with insurgents (ironically they are equipped to generate more of them). PA has nothing in its inventory (hardware and philosophy) to deal with them. All things have been bought to fight India - actually defend against India (looks like they gave up on that tea-lunch-dinner thinking some time back).

They need to give up on India as an adversary also.

Disclaimer: The above thinking is oriented towards preventing a situation where instead of breaking up, Pakistan (including Pakjab) goes into the hands of Al Qaida smoothly, and India is not even left with a Pakjab to act as a buffer state.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 18 Feb 2009 16:40

RajeshA --> the above assumes that the TSPA has enough WC in its ranks for the medicine to work -- starting Jinaah and Zia in route, the WCs are a rapidly diminishing force, plus even the core strength of WCs even as they swilled whiskey has been anti-India (if not directly pro-Islam) since the WCs realize that they are identical to the Dhimmi Indians expect that even the Dhimmi Indians had one shade more powerful family heritage of not totally succumbing to Islamic sword. This pretty much turns any Indian medicine immediately into poison through magic transform

The Ethnic identity of the Pakjabi which you are counting on is actually of compromise of a degree far greater than even the Indian Dhimmi. This group will count on the fact that it can continue swilling whiskey outside Pakistan if needs be and under the blanket cleverly hidden from Taliban (using the bania memes) at the small sacrifice of putting the women behind Purdah.

No I dont think the WCs can be counted on at all -- in fact the Talibanization of PakJab is also only a matter of time. The only question that remains is actually for Indians how much of Dhimmi behavior we will show before the next Khalsa arises to battle the "militant" (actually the only) Islam and when this round of the conflict ends -- who will be delta more powerful or less powerful. Will India actually grow or will this be n+1th step of Israelization of India.

ashish raval · Post by **ashish raval** » 18 Feb 2009 17:32

Pathans from Afghanistan are very good people. I know one of them living in London. He is normally integrated in the british society without any extremist view on Islam. One thing they hate is Pakistan. To learn more about pathan's, it is relevant to study people who have similarity with pathans in many aspects. Pathans are fiercely marshal race, which I would think could be the most fierce tribe in the world. Punjabi's from pakistan know it very well, even Sikhs from punjab know it very well. To view some cultural similarity, I see many such tribes in India which are in many ways similar with pathans. A few of them are Maher's, Ahir's, Rabari's, Bharwad's in Gujarat. However, these tribes are fiercely hindu and immensely devout with pure vegetarian food and can fight till death to save a cow. They are 180 degrees of Islam. In terms for fighting they can still hold the pole against Pathans. I saw a pathan wedding where they did war dance, to my amazement it was exactly similar to wardance done by Maher tribes in Gujarat. I mean all the steps, literally I could do those because I learned a few of them from my Maher friends during my schooldays. Eg : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJzJ1w3X9KI&NR=1. The only thing that Maher's do different now a days is that they use dandiya instead of sword which is because it is too dangerous to do that in public in India but originally they used to do it with swords in villages. In terms of anatomy they look like twins of pathans. So the point here is, how could you handle the people who fiercely protects its tribal laws, customs, culture etc along with religion in the area which is Islam. If you try to force people to follow the developed world and try to meddle with religion it will never work. They will immediately perceive it as an external threat and build a shell within the society repulsing everything which is thrown at them. No matter, what price they have to pay for it that includes talibanizing the society. The only way to force taliban out is through the people education movement in the region. Taliban knows that if people educate themselves, they will revolt against the talibani Islam and if they loose the favour, they will be thrown out at once from the region. Hence, taliban has resorted to bombing the school tactics. If USA fails to quickly stem the tide of taliban's in the region and it captures the heart and minds of the people in the region, we know that these tribal areas could be next Vietnam for sure.

Taliban has some shrewed minds. They always use ceasefire and talks as a way to re-group themselves. If international force gives them time for it, they will re-group, re-arm, re-finance and renew themselves ideologically. In a way they are like villan showed in Terminator-2, like liquid metal.

The only way out is to turn people against Taliban by whatever means possible.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Feb 2009 17:36

Sanku,

The Whiskey-Commanders in the end may or may not be able to or be willing to stem the tide of Taliban intrusion into Pakjab, but the point is they still need to be courted. They still have to be a part of the coalition.

As a primary hedging strategy, we will need them for establishing a kemalized Pakjab as a buffer state with Indian support. You say the chances of that working are dim.

Even if they fail, they could provide India sufficient time to come out of our slumber and prepare. In due time, India may have to enter the plains of Pakjab for a real war, and it would not be harmful to have some assets in the battlefield, for the sake of intelligence gathering, sabotage behind enemy lines, consolidation of local resistance against the Taliban, consultancy on local battle theatre, securing of supplies, etc. etc. We still need allies there.

Even before it comes to that, they can be helpful in de-nuking Pakistan, before a complete Taliban takeover.

Whatever our guestimation of the effectiveness of the Whiskey-Commanders, it doesn't change the principle of trying to court them.

munna · Post by **munna** » 18 Feb 2009 18:00

RajeshA adding to your comments from my interactions with the elites on the other side of Wagah I have come to a conclusion that ANY takeover of the reins of governance by an extremist force will NOT be opposed by them or WCs as you may call them. The sheer breakdown of the state (not now but a year ago) made everyone afraid of all things with HoKo and guns including TTP and they will migrate rather tha face those yahoos. Our only hope for a reconstruction of the territory once we are done with an Indo-TTP war will be the WKK counterparts on the other side and assorted expats living across the world. We cannot and will not be able to avert a war because TTP is done dealing with Af-Pak region and has nothing else but Ghazwa e Hind on its mind as the next target. Pakjabis are caught in a bind as they cannot abandon their ego and embrace yindoos while the TTP will merrily make them even more ijjlamic. Indians and India are like a marked man living next to his would be killers and the sooner we get that the better. I gain that war is much closer than we can even think of and the crises will establish us as the prima regia of the greater middle east and south asia. Stay tuned guys and be perpared the NW has fallen for the n th number of time in the history of India and barbarians will soon be at the gates.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 18 Feb 2009 23:13

RajeshA wrote:Whatever our guestimation of the effectiveness of the Whiskey-Commanders, it doesn't change the principle of trying to court them.

Um; thats where the other point I was trying to make comes in; as of now (and perhaps always) the WCs will not want to be courted by India at all; since the only thing that gives them some leverage in the increasingly Islam pasand Pakistan. So what I think is we have a catch 22 situation here in courting them

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 18 Feb 2009 23:20

munna wrote: n th number of time in the history of India and barbarians will soon be at the gates.

Yea!!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Feb 2009 23:26

Sanku,

True. The courtship is difficult, because of their brainwashing and acceptance in the local pecking order.

That is where, I am hoping, with a big optimistic cap, which is way too big for me, that once the realization dawns, that the Pakistan that was theirs, is no more, that Taliban's Pakistan is not Jinnah's Pakistan (whatever that was), that they will end up as decorations on lampposts, then they will be more willing for a courtship.

That is why more clear-cut events are needed which reinforce a clean cut from the past and the birth of a new order there. A war in Peshawar will go a long way in defining that dividing line. Problem is when the line is kept blurred.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 18 Feb 2009 23:59

RajeshA wrote:, that Taliban's Pakistan is not Jinnah's Pakistan (whatever that was)

Well I hope you are right, but for them to see reason one more thing has to change -- the current US sponsorship -- I mean they can play the same routine you are asking them to in front of Uncle and get $ for it -- why do it for Indian and get the same amount in Rs and at the same time risk your neck?

But yes if Uncle pulls out and leaves them alone -- we shall sure see some rapid realignments for at least a group (the paki version of Northern Alliance)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Feb 2009 00:08

One thought is the long war in Peshawar will be a sub-rosa one and wont be recognized as such until its over.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Feb 2009 01:25

Taliban has some shrewed minds. They always use ceasefire and talks as a way to re-group themselves.

Mush did it. They ALL do it. Came from their original constitution.

I am coming to a fairly difficult conclusion. The problem is the West, in particular the US. They think they have the answer, when they do not even know the question they have an answer for.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Feb 2009 01:48

NRao wrote:
Taliban has some shrewed minds. They always use ceasefire and talks as a way to re-group themselves.
Mush did it. They ALL do it. Came from their original constitution.

I am coming to a fairly difficult conclusion. The problem is the West, in particular the US. They think they have the answer, when they do not even know the question they have an answer for.

AWMTA!!! Welcome to the club. Only corollary I would add is it is the Anglo-Saxon West in particular that is the underlying condition for the surge in Islamism in the modern world.

The fires were stoked by Wilfrid Scawen Blunt in his book "Future of Islam" which is the blueprint that was followed. It was to harness Arabised Islam to negate the Eastern Scourge aka Ottomon Turkey or really the westward invasions of Europe from time immemorial.

The gradual decline of Great Britain has shifted the burden to US which is poor Sorcerer's Apperentice. The caludron is spilling over and the Apprentice doesnt know how to stop it and the Sorcerer is bankrupt.

But there are fatal flaws in the Arabised Islamism that led to its decline in the first place. So it wont last.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 19 Feb 2009 02:54

ramana wrote:One thought is the long war in Peshawar will be a sub-rosa one and wont be recognized as such until its over.

Ramana Sir,

That is why it is important, what vocabulary we use, in blogs, in fora, in commentary to articles, in articles, on youtube, everywhere from the word go. The sooner, we establish a desired vocabulary in the media, especially in the Western media, the better.

When the war in Peshawar starts, the war should be portrayed as a Pushtun-Pakjabi War. We should simply suspend the use of the word Taliban.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 19 Feb 2009 04:43

oh! this is where this discussion is going on.

re-floating this balloon i initially floated in TSP thread.

shaardula wrote:the news reached my end of the rock too.

at the risk of sounding pompous, this does not come as a surprise to me. the thought had occured to me, if sharia was what all they wanted, why doesn't the TSP give it to them?

Infact, why not all the TSP under sharia? It is a form of governance that operates in places like Saudi anyways. no innovation there.

The real question is what after sharia? Are the taliban types only after an islamic code of living or as is the norm for all humans are they upto more? Having tasted success and having stumbled upon a means to having their way, will/can the taliban now apply this method to achieve greater political control? like the seductress who knows how to throw a tantarum to get more.

is the pakjabi merry making meme stronger than the TSP-ian urge to appear more muslameen than thou and thy uncle? i think too much is made of the pakjabi merry-making ways. they'll prolly put up an act of piety way before they will actually cede control & power. When control & power come into play, that is when pakjabis will face the wrath of the khan. right now they have the hudabiya going on, i think.

ps: i realize there are these nagging questions such as are taliban, AQ and ISI different? But I think even the ISI has to operate within the framework of TSP and have to work to bend the will of TSPian abduls. Even the ISI needs a way to work the abduls. Right now they see that if they can create enough havoc, the abduls will be blinded by the dust. I think more people were massacred in Balochistan than this churning in NWFP/FATA.

I think the ISI-types realize that more islamized the population is, the less likely it is to succumb to the dissipative rigors of progressive living. they want all this energy concentrated on the pet projects of isi-walas is what i think. islam, with its mullah-only outlets and literalism was made to order for that. i think some pakjabis have decided that other pakjabis are too much into merry making to be focused. i think some pakjabis just found out a way to bend other pakjabis.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Feb 2009 05:09

Infact, why not all the TSP under sharia? It is a form of governance that operates in places like Saudi anyways. no innovation there.

I am not sure I agree with that. The issue - to them - is not the past, but to consolidate the present and enforce sharia everywhere else. SA has been very active in getting those that say anything against Islam to books in other nations - through the UN!!!

As I mentioned earlier, they have and will resort to tolerating non-Islamic activities - such as allowing education for girls - till they consolidate enough to reverse directions at the right time.

This is passive conversion.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 19 Feb 2009 05:55

raayre (literally rao-garru),

unless proven otherwise, i am betting on the underlying machismo of the purer than thou-walas. the point is, there are the only ones doing anything.

if there is anything i have learned from, the otherwise undersold, benis and other pak threads here, it is that there is an yearning for purity in pak-world.

now, you can argue that this is a biased sample. but if you look at the running data on TSP, the estimates at BRF are not very far off. infact happenings in pak-world hardly ever deviate from this notion.

i repeat some pakjabis just wagered the fancy of other pakjabis. the aim is to look west.

kasthuri · Post by **kasthuri** » 19 Feb 2009 06:19

Could this sudden raise of voice against Taliban by India means something? In any case, I think India has started thinking about Taliban takeover in TSP, which is a good sign.

Taliban a terrorist organisation, says India

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 19 Feb 2009 06:23

right. that is what we have to worry about. how far do we want a far-right pakistan to succeed. the sad thing is DDM is DDM. So, actual failings of a far right TSP you have to show.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 19 Feb 2009 07:19

Holbrooke outlines plans for Afghanistan. PBS News hour Video