Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

[James B]

Increase in fuel prices will not reduce the fiscal deficit
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Biz/ ... 102420.cms

To a query, the Finance Minister said the decision to hike the fuel prices will not have any impact on fiscal deficit as the additional money does not go to the Consolidated Fund of India, but oil marketing companies.

This is a very interesting comment. So far we have all been under the impression that increase in the fuel prices will reduce the fiscal deficit of GOI, and will enable it to spend more money on developmental works. But this statement of the finance minister is quite in contrast to our assumption.

Now the question is - how right is the decision of putting a dent in the pocket of millions of Indians, in order to protect the interests of oil marketing companies?

I think the tax (both state& central) also increase relative to the increase in price of petrol&diesel. So, some money will definitely go to the coffers.

[Vivek K]

Mort, welcome back! The earnings that you state of a hand cart vendor seem on the high side. If the number is true then times have really changed in India. The GOI should take another look at the tax code and stop penalising the few taxpayers.

[satyam]

Abbott buys Piramal's formulations business for $ US 3.72 billion (about Rs 18,000 crore)

http://beta.profit.ndtv.com/news/show/p ... deal-79222

[Prem]

Mort, welcome back! The earnings that you state of a hand cart vendor seem on the high side. If the number is true then times have really changed in India. The GOI should take another look at the tax code and stop penalising the few taxpayers.

Actually numbers are pretty decentky moderate . In City like Delhi, i saw the vegetabe vendor doing that businenss in an hour. The guy with 2 of his assitant was bubbling with happiness. My estimate was that the good fellow was making income similar or better than silicon valley executive. I had short chat with him on his last routine round in the residential area. Could not resist marvelling at the ease with which he switched from one language to another .

[abhischekcc]

The pan-bidi shops in Delhi make 7-8k in NET profit per day.

[satyam]

Food Security Bill expected to come up at July 1 NAC meeting
http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... g/99790/on

This bill will break the backbone of Indian economy if passed. Everyone will claim to be poor with first preference to minorities.

Subsidy burden of atleast roughly-10 billion $

[Mort Walker]

As said, a hand-cart walla will easily make Rs. 5K in one day in a 2nd tier city and profit margin is at least 40%. I did not get details for a city like Delhi or Mumbai, but got a good assessment for what's happening in 2nd tier cities. Also in 2nd tier cities, you can not find a house maid to help for laundry, dishes and clean up for less than Rs. 300 a day. Its more like Rs. 500 to pay for doing laundry, dishes and moping the floor on a daily basis if you want the maid to come on time every day. This is for a large house about 4000 - 5000 sq. ft. interior space. It merits the use of vacuum cleaners, washing machines and dishwashers; but given power cuts, the type of cleaning and cooking, it becomes difficult to use consumer level machines.

I have a relative doing a small home based tiffen business for the various private colleges in a 3 KM radius. He only provides vegetarian meals for lunch and dinner and a desert dish on Sunday. He has sales of over Rs. 40,000 a week and NET profit is over 40%. Its all cash and there is no tax issue which comes up.

The overall tax burden is too high and the best solution is to reduce it significantly. The central, state and municipal governments have generally failed in providing sanitation, clean drinking water, health care, electricity, education, local roads and law & order. It would be better that the governments formally abdicate this responsibility and let residents provide their own solutions and let them invest their wealth to improvement. If this isn't done, you will see most of this cash wealth going to toward shady investments/scams and retail of imported goods.

[satyam]

instead up piling on regulation upon regulation, they should actually have a debate with top economists as to why food price inflation and overall inflation is so high. does the central bank need to be more aggressive in its monetary policy, or is it the free-for-all govt spending that is causing it. imvho, core CPI hovering consistently around 10% or higher and food price inflation in high teens is not healthy for the country. even for a country growing at 7%. something is out of sync. it is most likely a supply side problem due to inefficiencies in the agricultural sector. but this problem wouldn't be out in the open if not for high levels of spending, which is causing increasing demand from consumers.

on one level, this is good b/c higher demand for food will improve the nutritional conditions of the population and higher quality of life. but if the agri industry is not prepared for increased demand, inflation will outstrip whatever gains in quality of life are made due to increased consumption of food. if govt isn't willing to moderate spending in the short term to gain some time to improve agri sector, then a tighter monetary policy is the only solution. such high inflation is not acceptable.

Well inflation is good if the increased money is going to farmers. And not good if the money is going to middle man. And population needs to be controlled.

[satyam]

i disagree. inflation is never good. increased standard of living for the farmers is good. but not at the price of double digit inflation. over the long term, constant inflation at that rate breeds a complacent mentality which forever leaves an inflationary bias in all policy. and this is disastrous. US is a good example. read Murray Rothbard's "history of money and banking in US," and you will realize that current money printing in US is a symptom of long-term addiction to the same. for almost 300 years now, US has repeatedly done the same and eventually realized the futility of it and gone back to fundamentals only to do the same all over again, a generation or two later.

what i'm saying is inflation should be combated by making supply side corrections like improving the govt controlled food distribution system and the overall agri sector. increase farmers' efficiency so that supply can be increased to acceptable levels at which inflation is tamed.

What i meant was inflation for a short period. Not for large time.

[Katare]

Increase in fuel prices will not reduce the fiscal deficit
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Biz/ ... 102420.cms

To a query, the Finance Minister said the decision to hike the fuel prices will not have any impact on fiscal deficit as the additional money does not go to the Consolidated Fund of India, but oil marketing companies.

This is a very interesting comment. So far we have all been under the impression that increase in the fuel prices will reduce the fiscal deficit of GOI, and will enable it to spend more money on developmental works. But this statement of the finance minister is quite in contrast to our assumption.

Now the question is - how right is the decision of putting a dent in the pocket of millions of Indians, in order to protect the interests of oil marketing companies?

Asit,

It does reduce actual govt deficit but since GoI keeps these subsidies off balance sheet this reduction in borrowing will not change the official deficit figures.

[satyam]

India's FY10 external debt up 16.5% to $261.4 bn

http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... n/99852/on

[Prem]

DE Shaw And The Richest Man In India Might Partner To Enter Banking

The Mukesh Dhirubhai Ambani Group is close to signing an equal joint venture agreement with global private equity and hedge fund company DE Shaw to enter the financial services sector, two people familiar with the development told ET.This is fascinating and somewhat like what the hedge fund Citadel has been trying to do, which is compete with the big banks in investment banking.The difference is that it appears that DE Shaw's deal with Mukesh would result in Mukesh's company offering the financial services , not DE Shaw, and that we don't know yet how aggressive the venture will be.
Word is that DE Shaw would help Mukesh set up:
energy and carbon trading
energy and carbon derivatives
private equity
mutual funds
other security-linked products

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/de-shaw- ... z0sNBYXizY

[satyam]

balance of payment report by RBI

http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressR ... d=22739#T5

[Abhijeet]

The central, state and municipal governments have generally failed in providing sanitation, clean drinking water, health care, electricity, education, local roads and law & order. It would be better that the governments formally abdicate this responsibility and let residents provide their own solutions and let them invest their wealth to improvement.

In the lives of most middle-class and above Indians, most of these services are already provided (primarily or secondarily) through private providers:

- Building societies have "full" 24x7 power backup
- Water is supplied through tankers
- Sewerage is provided through septic tanks
- Health care is through private hospitals and clinics
- Education is through private "unaided" schools
- Law and order (at least within your apartment premises) is through private security guards
- In some areas the builders have even gotten together and constructed roads themselves, the local PWD being dysfunctional

Unfortunately, not everything can be outsourced entirely to the private sector -- law enforcement and roads being two primary things, unless you like the idea of everyone having their own private militia and road construction company.

The government's role in India is primarily as a rent seeker, using its privileged monopoly position (unfortunately, I don't have a choice of which government I want to govern me) to extract tribute from its citizens. The government produces an artificial scarcity of things that are actually public property, jacking up their prices, in order to fill their pockets. The recent broadband auction is a prime example of this. The government chose to auction off a small part of the spectrum, ensuring scarcity and hence high prices in order to plug their deficit. This will result in higher prices for consumers for years to come.

I think that tax evasion is actually a form of civil disobedience against a government that is at best indifferent, and at worst positively malevolent.

[RamaY]

gurudevs,

^ from above

Item....................................................... 2007-08..... 2008-09...... 2009-2010

12. Gross Capital Inflows ( US $ billion)......... 438.4........ 312.4.......... 344.0

13. Gross Capital Outflows ( US $ billion)....... 331.8......... 305.2.......... 290.4

14. Net Capital Flows ( US $ billion).............. 106.6.......... 7.2............ 53.6

15. Net Capital Inflows / GDP ( % )............... 8.7............. 0.6............ 4.1

To my eyes it looks like that there ~$300B financial capital flow in both direction per year. This is ~25% of BSE's market capitalization. What are the implications of this on Indian Interests especially when this system is rigged by economic-jihadis?

TIA

[Abhijeet]

Also in 2nd tier cities, you can not find a house maid to help for laundry, dishes and clean up for less than Rs. 300 a day. Its more like Rs. 500 to pay for doing laundry, dishes and moping the floor on a daily basis if you want the maid to come on time every day. This is for a large house about 4000 - 5000 sq. ft. interior space.

I think these are NRI prices in addition to the fact that you wanted a maid for a short period. There is no way domestic labour costs Rs. 10K-15K per month (Rs.300-500 per day) even in the metros, let alone in a Tier-II city. Labour rates have gone up, but not that much.

[VenkataS]

Also in 2nd tier cities, you can not find a house maid to help for laundry, dishes and clean up for less than Rs. 300 a day. Its more like Rs. 500 to pay for doing laundry, dishes and moping the floor on a daily basis if you want the maid to come on time every day. This is for a large house about 4000 - 5000 sq. ft. interior space.

I think these are NRI prices in addition to the fact that you wanted a maid for a short period. There is no way domestic labour costs Rs. 10K-15K per month (Rs.300-500 per day) even in the metros, let alone in a Tier-II city. Labour rates have gone up, but not that much.

My mom pays her maid Rs. 1000 per month to do the dishes and to mop the floor (about 2500 sq. ft.) on a daily basis. This is in Hyderabad. However, the maid is not punctual and only shows up about 80% of the time.

[satyam]

gurudevs,

^ from above

Item....................................................... 2007-08..... 2008-09...... 2009-2010

12. Gross Capital Inflows ( US $ billion)......... 438.4........ 312.4.......... 344.0

13. Gross Capital Outflows ( US $ billion)....... 331.8......... 305.2.......... 290.4

14. Net Capital Flows ( US $ billion).............. 106.6.......... 7.2............ 53.6

15. Net Capital Inflows / GDP ( % )............... 8.7............. 0.6............ 4.1

To my eyes it looks like that there ~$300B financial capital flow in both direction per year. This is ~25% of BSE's market capitalization. What are the implications of this on Indian Interests especially when this system is rigged by economic-jihadis?

TIA

Hot money flow is one of the main cause of inflation. Supply side is not able to cope with demand.

[Katare]

gurudevs,

^ from above

Item....................................................... 2007-08..... 2008-09...... 2009-2010

12. Gross Capital Inflows ( US $ billion)......... 438.4........ 312.4.......... 344.0

13. Gross Capital Outflows ( US $ billion)....... 331.8......... 305.2.......... 290.4

14. Net Capital Flows ( US $ billion).............. 106.6.......... 7.2............ 53.6

15. Net Capital Inflows / GDP ( % )............... 8.7............. 0.6............ 4.1

To my eyes it looks like that there ~$300B financial capital flow in both direction per year. This is ~25% of BSE's market capitalization. What are the implications of this on Indian Interests especially when this system is rigged by economic-jihadis?
TIA

Stock market flow is only one component of the total capital flows. It also includes debts, loans, dividends, interests, FCCB, FDI, World Bank and ADB loan, acquisition of Indian companies, loan/bond repayments by GoI and private sector etc.

Although your concerns are justified as FIIs are most dominant player in the indian market which is not a comforting position for domestic investors, govt and economy. But in recent year DII, mutual funds, pension funds and insurance companies are increasingly coming out as counter weight to FIIS. I would hope that if we keep current restrictions on hot capital inflow domestic investors led by insurance companies and mutual funds will get upper hands in Indian market.

If you watch day to day trades trends it seems like DII are usually net buyers when FIIs are net sellers and vice versa. So when FIIs are pulling out like last year Indian investors should take advantage of that vacuum.

[Katare]

BS


May export surges to $16.1 bn, up 35.1%

BS Reporter / New Delhi July 2, 2010, 1:38 IST



The country’s export of goods surged to $16.1 billion in May, which is up 35.1 per cent from $11.9 billion in the same month last year. However, the growth declined a tad from April when merchandise exports reached $17 billion, registering an increase of 36.2 per cent year-on-year.

Imports for May grew by 38.5 per cent to $27.43 billion year-on-year as against $19.80 billion in the same month last financial year. The rise in imports was mainly due to significant growth in oil imports during the month, which rose by a whopping 66.7 per cent in May at $8.84 billion from $5.30 billion last year.

[Suraj]

The volume of capital flows themselves are not an issue. If anything, I think the official data is understated. Still, our capital flow levels are puny compared to some other countries, like Japan and PRC.

The larger concern is identifying who the holders are . In this regard, the RBI has continued to do a good job, but pushing for and enforcing greater disclosure norms recently. As an entity, the RBI commands far greater credibility than the US Fed does right now, and so far they've been doing the right things.

[Vinu]

India raises interest rates to curb inflation

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10493454.stm

Apologies if it is already posted.

[Theo_Fidel]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/02/world ... etter.html

The Promise of India's Nascent Economy

The stalls are still there, spilling over onto the roads and holding up traffic. It’s possible to see an occasional ox cart lumbering between flashy new cars and motorcycles. But over the years, agriculture has become less important to this town in the southern state of Tamil Nadu. Many of the fields have been sold, turned into housing projects or other real estate developments. Young people no longer become farmers; they move to the cities, in search of new opportunities.

Since the 1990s, when India shed its socialist past and began introducing market reforms, the structure of its economy has changed dramatically. Agriculture, which in 1990 accounted for about 30 percent of gross domestic product, now accounts for only 17.5 percent. Industry has declined from more than a quarter of G.D.P. to a just a fifth.

The most striking change has been the growing importance of services, a broad category that includes banking, communications and real estate. From 1990 to 2009, the share of services in India’s economy grew from 44.7 percent to 62.6 percent.

But while their interest in computers was driven in part by personal ambition, I was struck, too, by the sense of collective purpose, even nationalism, they seemed to attach to the lessons they were taking.

K. Selvakannan, a skinny boy with a pen clipped to his shirt pocket, said that in another era, he might have been a freedom fighter. Now, he said, a technical education was “the new patriotism.”

“In my village, I am one of the few who knows computers. We have to learn for the country,” he said, adding that he planned to return to his village to create jobs and prosperity.

Before leaving, I spoke to M. Aparna, who had started the training center with her husband. She was optimistic about the future. She said the number of students kept growing. Even the older generation was coming into the center now, with farmers now trying to learn how to use computers.

[Theo_Fidel]

It appears Mr Basu lost as the topi wallahs got their chuddi's in a bunch...

Really 5.5% Repo rate!

The carry trade is going to flourish. RBI is going to get taken to the cleaners.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... or/397296/

Q&A: Kaushik Basu, Chief Economic Advisor

Inflation is a matter of concern but let me assure you that this is a hand being over-played by some segments. The food price data released last week received a huge amount of attention, some claiming that food inflation was up at 16.55 per cent. Take a careful look at the numbers and you will see the food price index, which indicates the average price of food, is now virtually the same as on November 27, 2009. Now it is 295. It was 296 at the end of November. This means the average food price inflation since November has been zero. The high inflation figure of 16.55 per cent that is being talked about is that of today’s price compared to that of one year ago. What these facts tell us is that food inflation occurred for six months, from May to November last year, and the high food inflation number that we see today is capturing purely the base effect. Over the last several months, average food price inflation has tapered off.

What is true is that non-food inflation has picked up since the end of last year. Core inflation, which is the inflation without food and fuel, was very low till October-November. It was just above zero then and is just below 6 per cent now. The government must not overreact to this, however, and take draconian measures which will lower investment and raise unemployment.

[Singha]

SBI had roped in a lot of home owners with a teaser 1 yr 8% fixed rate. now they have been smacked with 11.5% floating. lots of pain in office today from SBI loanees.

[svinayak]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/02/world ... etter.html

The Promise of India's Nascent Economy

I have to give credit how they collect data at the local level which is reported and some think tank will make their policies. The analysis will include how the Indian economy will increase, what is the growth and how the social conditions are improving.
They have also made sure that they can put road blocks to Indian economy whenever they want to by denial, sanctions or promoting China economy

[Bade]

SBI had roped in a lot of home owners with a teaser 1 yr 8% fixed rate. now they have been smacked with 11.5% floating. lots of pain in office today from SBI loanees.

No wonder that I got a mail from Purva, soliciting their latest offerings. Who would buy with 11% interest rate anything north of Rs 50 lakhs for a modest apartment among the yuppies ? I do not know how the real estate market sustains in India...the NRI quota must be very low in the mix, even with the very low ~ 4% teaser rates in the US.

[Singha]

apparently 75L-1cr loan bracket is doing well at present. so luxurious 3bhk,4bhk of the sobha/purva/mantri variety must be selling well. lots of new villa projects are also coming up - 1cr+ ofcourse.

I too am shocked by the visible signs of 'new wealth' by the number of costly cars surging on the road. did you know toyota has stopped the fortuner suv bookings for a few months to clear a backlog of 6000? this is a vehicle north of 20L otr. smaller bmws and mercs are dime a dozen now. some cos also seem to lease accords and camrys for top executives. the number of people earning north of 75L/annum has likely surged strongly in last 5 yrs. a lot of work has moved into india in all sectors and managers/directors who bring this work and manage its delivery are sure raking it in. in my co itself hundreds of very senior people have moved to india seeking career opportunities...there are people whose official travel bills run into lakhs per months. all of these people have surely purchased high end property and atleast one big car. essential service providers like schools, restaurants, malls are coming along nicely.

[Ameet]

India's ¢u££€₦¢¥ Gets Its Own $¥mbol ₮oda¥

http://www.fastcompany.com/1665880/indi ... onts-signs

India's currency, the rupee, has been strangely bereft of an official symbol to use when denoting it in text. Today it'll choose one, from a short list of five similar designs and join the ranks of its international cousins.

[krisna]

^^^^
http://www.saveindianrupeesymbol.org/

RTI Activists Exposed Violation of Guidelines in “Indian Rupee Symbol” Design Competition

[James B]

^^What's the update on this?. What is the exact date that the symbol is going to be chosen??

[satyam]

Rest of the state can learn from Gujarat. They have a fiscal surplus budget(2009-10)

http://financedepartment.gujarat.gov.in ... -a_eng.pdf

[Neshant]

^^What's the update on this?. What is the exact date that the symbol is going to be chosen??

I'd like to know as well.

Billions of dollars are at stake. An ugly symbol inspires no confidence.

I have a bad feeling the symbol chosen is going to be an ugly looking R with lines running through it which will make it totally irrelavant (may as well write the letter R).

[RoyG]

Ugh I have a bad feeling about the symbol as well. Indians must have collectively committed some horrendous acts in their past couple lives to deserve such an idiotic bureaucracy. You'd think with all the creative talent in this country the gov would come up with a hyped up nationwide competition with cash prizes for finalists and the winner. The symbols I've seen so far are incredibly pathetic. They fail to embody the power and confidence of this country and its ancient past.

[Asit P]

Inflation likely to touch 14 pc this month: E&Y
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 126892.cms

[vera_k]

Inflation seems headed back to the bad old days of the 80s. Why should interest rates not follow the trend upwards as well?

I think the RBI is out of options as interest rates will have to rise further to tame inflation. But the government can get more growth by making progress on long pending but politically difficult reforms (like oil deregulation).

[Abhijeet]

I filled up today for the first time since the petrol price increase last week. The rate is Rs.56 per litre, not 55 as I previously thought.

Apparently, fully 47% of the final price of petrol comes from various taxes.

[James B]

India to create 570 million new jobs in 5 years

The United Progressive Alliance government has announced an estimated 2.5 per cent annual growth in employment and a possibility of creating 570 million (5.7 crore) jobs over the next five years, if an economic growth rate of 9 per cent is maintained.

The present work force in the country is estimated to be 520 million (5.2 crore).

It seems the guy who wrote this doesn't know conversion between crores and millions. How pathetic these reporters are, cannot even do these simple conversions but go on to write article on economy.

[Surya]

BS Reporter in New Delhi
The United Progressive Alliance government has

well he is BS Reporter after all

[Asit P]

I think the RBI is out of options as interest rates will have to rise further to tame inflation.

Yes Vera, there have been reports that suggest that RBI shall soon be increasing the interest rates. It has already increased the repo and reverse repo rate.