Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Austin
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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Austin » 04 Nov 2015 14:45

7 years after 26/11: Are We Safe? Live Q&A with Sandeep Unnithan


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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Sachin » 18 Nov 2015 15:47


Austin
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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Austin » 18 Nov 2015 16:34

India seeks targeted economic sanctions to curb terror funding

The Paris attacks claimed by ISIS are a “grim reminder” that terrorists have become very flexible in meeting their funding requirements, according to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

"Disrupting fund flow constrains the capabilities of terrorists and reduces their ability to execute attacks," Modi said at an Indian anti-corruption conference Tuesday.

"This involves putting in place both systemic safeguards, and targeted economic sanctions based on credible counter-terrorism intelligence," said the Prime Minister, adding that "there is an imperative need to focus our efforts to enhance international co-operation in the field of asset recovery for fighting crime, corruption and terrorism."

Globalization of organized crime is a great threat to the global economy and undermines fair business, according to Modi.

"Organized crime can hamper investment and economic growth. It can also infiltrate or control a large section of economy. Illicit funding promotes organized criminal activities like drug trafficking, arms trafficking, human trafficking and terrorism," he said.

At present, countries are limited by national boundaries and India is doing everything possible to hasten the adoption of a uniform global standard on Automatic Exchange of Information on a fully reciprocal basis, said Modi.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Manish_P » 19 Nov 2015 10:25

Another Warrior leaves the battlefield

Ex-RAW chief Sankaran passes away

Former Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) director and one of the chief movers behind the successful 1971 Bangladesh war, K Sankaran Nair, passed away in Mallige Hospital in Bengaluru on Tuesday .He was 94 and unwell. Nair, who is from Ottappalam in Kerala, joined the external intelligence agency in 1968 as deputy to RAW's legendary founder RN Kao. He had by then worked in the Intelligence Bureau, which was carved out of British-era Indian police, which Nair had joined in 1943.

The RAW stint was a memorable one as Nair, going by the name `Colonel' Menon, is supposed to have played a significant role in orchestrating India's covert operation against Pakistan along with Kao. He helped Kao train and mobilise the Mukti Bahini guerrilla resistance movement against the Pakistani army in Bangladesh. Some of those years were recounted by Nair in his memoir 'Inside IB and RAW: The Rolling Stone That Gathered Moss' released in 2008.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Manish_P » 28 Nov 2015 09:08

Suspected ISI agent at work in Bareilly nabbed in Meerut

IG Pandey said, "He sneaked into India from Bangladesh on February 9, 2013. He has already handed over classified information on the movement of the Sukhoi 30 combat aircraft and their hangars. He had information about the anti-tank guided missile programme. He had in his possession video images of Mirage's emergency landing on Yamuna Expressway, the movement of the mountain brigade at Pithoragarh and information about an under-construction runway. His bank account in India showed transaction of more than Rs6 lakh in the last two years. This money was transferred in instalments, once from Saudi Arabia then from Dubai. He has sent his handlers information on cantonments in Bareilly, Meerut, Agra, Pithoragarh, Shahjahanpur and Mathura. He was in contact with a man called Salim, an officer of the ISI. His family was receiving Rs 50,000 per month in Pakistan for his services."


Originally identified as Mohammad Ejaz from Islamabad, he had assumed the name of Mohammad Kalam in India. Besides classified Army documents, sleuths in Meerut recovered a fake Aadhar card with a Bareilly address, a fake voter ID card made in West Bengal, a Delhi Metro traveller card and Nepali and Saudi currency from him. His laptop, pen drive and ATM card have been seized. A NADRA card (Pakistani national identity card) was also found, Pandey said.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby shiv » 28 Nov 2015 20:40


abhik
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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby abhik » 28 Nov 2015 21:51

^^^
Interesting @8:00 he de-emphasizes the role of tank. May be thats why we keep buying tincans, a quid pro quo to the Russians in a area we think will not be very critical for us.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby PratikDas » 29 Nov 2015 02:53

abhik wrote:^^^
Interesting @8:00 he de-emphasizes the role of tank. May be thats why we keep buying tincans, a quid pro quo to the Russians in a area we think will not be very critical for us.

With respect, abhik ji, this is not a logical argument.

One doesn't expend precious capital on something s/he doesn't consider valuable. If you had said the purchase of the tin can was the payment of hafta / security tax to the Russians, that would've made more sense. Then the valuable item being paid for was the abeyance of Russian ire or blackmail, i.e. the selling of crucial military goods to Pakistan or China, for example. Then it would be possible to explain the purchase of anything, say, bread, for billions.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Austin » 29 Nov 2015 14:17

Kaspersky: India is under increasing threat of cyber criminals from China, Russia and US

India is increasingly on the radar of cybercriminals from countries like China, Russia and the US, who are using advanced persistent threat (APT) attacks to steal data from consumers and enterprises, security software firm Kaspersky said today.

APT refers to a format where the attacker gains access to a network/device and stays there undetected for a long period of time. The motive of the attack is to steal data and there is damage over a longer term to the organisation/user.


“APT attacks are on the rise globally and those affecting India are also growing. These attacks are originating from China, the US and Russia among other countries. A major chunk of the attacks like Equation, Turla, Darkhotel, Regin, Cloud Atlas infected India as well,” Kaspersky Lab Deputy Director Global Research and Analysis Team Sergey Novikov told reporters here. He added that while there were three APT announcements in 2012, the number grew to seven in 2013, 11 in 2014 and 10 in the first half of 2015.

“As more and more devices get connected to the Internet, the level of sophistication of these attacks is also on the rise,” he said. Novikov said the line of distinction between state-sponsored cyber attacks and those by criminal gangs is diminishing as similar techniques often get used. “However, it is difficult to establish whether they are working together,” he added.

Stuxnet is a example of an APT attack. The malicious worm is believed to have been a jointly built American-Israeli cyber weapon to sabotage Iran’s nuclear programme. Rainer Bock, Head of Strategic Projects at the company said one could see more complex attacks going ahead, including state-sponsored ones. “Also, the vectors of attacks will evolve. From attacking devices, cybercriminals are now looking at networks and communication channels like WiFi, Bluetooth and 3G,” he added. Targets of these attacks are also evolving as newer devices like ATM and PoS machines, smart cities and connected cars are now on the radar, he said.

PTI

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby RoyG » 01 Dec 2015 11:23




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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby nits » 07 Dec 2015 15:05

Strange this thread is so slient when so much going on with ISI spy racket...

Arrests of ISI agents tip of spying iceberg

The ISI network of spies has been operating in India for over a decade, reports Indrani Roy/Rediff.com

The espionage ring busted last week is the tip of the iceberg, a senior Kolkata Special Task Force police officer told Rediff.com

On November 26, the Delhi police arrested Kafaitullah Khan and Border Security Force head constable Abdul Rasheed in Jammu on charges of spying and supplying information about the Indian Army to Pakistan's Directorate of Inter Services Intelligence, the ISI.

Khan was arrested aboard a Bhopal-bound train at Jammu railway station. Rasheed was apprehended later following Khan's interrogation.

The next day, November 27, the Uttar Pradesh Special Task Force arrested Mohammad Kalam alias Mohammad Ijaz, another alleged ISI agent, near Meerut railway station.

These arrests exposed an ISI network that has been operating in India for over a decade, the Kolkata STF officer told Rediff.com

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Karan M » 11 Dec 2015 22:09

Really don't know which thread this should go in. Perhaps we need a new thread on overall national security leadership. Some points raised here. Informed members need to comment. Uncharitable comments about the CAS apart (which may be misplaced), the "establishment thinking" part is definitely of concern. Several folks have noticed it in the past about other individuals.

http://bharatkarnad.com/

The IAF has always operated with a tactical mindset, as explicated at length in my writings over the years and in my new book — ‘Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)’in the most part to justify its incomprehensible love for Western, short-legged, combat aircraft. And because the acquisition of the French Rafale plane is going through its stages of approval, the IAF leadership feels the need to do everything it can to speed it along the lines it desires to justify such purchase. Here Pakistan looms large because otherwise the Rafale makes even less sense than it would in the inventory if China is the target. Astonishingly, Vayu Bhavan has apparently absolutely no qualms whatsoever in limiting the IAF’s utility and relevance in the future by advancing such procurement decisions.

Meanwhile, China builds up comprehensively for a strategic and tactical lock down of the Indian air force, even as the latter’s brass mouth inanities and pursue modernization polices to the detriment of the country’s defence and the national interest.

On a personal note: Raha (then Air Vice Marshal) was one of the officers deputed to attend the Strategic Nuclear Orientation Course (SNOC) begun in 2005-2006 at the instance of the then CNS and Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee, Admiral Arun Prakash, who wanted to have in the military a “ginger group” of senior officers who would have informed, hard line, views on strategic issues at variance with the establishment thinking of the kind perpetrated by the late Air Cmde Jasjit Singh-led Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS) via another course, and had asked me to conceptualize and conduct it at CPR. My own view was that the SNOC should be institutionalized by bringing it within the ambit of the Integrated Defence Staff. This was facilitated some years later during the time Vice Admiral Anup Singh headed it. And so it happened that SNOC came under the Centre for Joint Warfare Studies under HQ IDS. Tragically, SNOC has turned into a paler version of the Course offered by CAPS and has subverted the original intention of SNOC. The result is the perpetuation of the inoffensive sort of strategic thinking services headquarters purvey in line with what is considered the establishment view.

Now to the Raha point — the last time I had a more direct hand in running this SNOC at CENJOWS some years back, I had allotted the part of PM to the future air chief in a brief, illustrative, nuclear tripwire war game I usually ended the course with. In fact, Raha was so in tune with the attitude of the government of the day he couldn’t have been bettered by Manmohan Singh himself had he been inserted in the game, in terms of the display of characteristic vacillation and unwillingness to take decisions!


The larger point that I have iterated frequently is how beyond the Brigadier-rank, the system of selection based on “seniority over merit” has resulted over the years in a “ji-huzoori” ethos in the military that’s scarcely distinguishable from that prevailing in the civilian services. And how this has continually depressed the quality of new armed services chiefs. If elsewhere in the world the best make it to selection grades, in India it is the mediocre, “go along to get along”-types who slip up the ladder. This is most visible in the army and air force; navy is sort of an exception — tho’even there a few duffers have made it to the top more by accident than design, because being a small service it has better career management practices in place, one in which swimming against tide is tolerated unlike in its sister services where it is a liability. The consequences are there for all to see in the strategic sensibility of the navy versus that of the army and air force.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby ramana » 11 Dec 2015 23:16

Karnad wrote:In fact, Raha was so in tune with the attitude of the government of the day he couldn’t have been bettered by Manmohan Singh himself had he been inserted in the game, in terms of the display of characteristic vacillation and unwillingness to take decisions!


Vacillation and unwillingness are two different things.

Vacillation in decision making is due to difficulty in choosing from options. And root cause is lack of strong conviction or not understanding the objectives and goals of the nation.

Unwillingness comes from not believing the data presented to the decision maker. Hope that things will resolve themselves.

Another reason could be the fear that firm decision making capability display would jeopardize the management ethos of IAF!!!!
IOW he could get the boot if he showed any spunk.

So leads to group think.

BTW I think ACM SK Mehra was one awesome dude among recent Chiefs.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby sum » 30 Dec 2015 03:53

^^ Spring cleaning seems to be in season with IB counter-intel being given a free hand under Pigeon.

Has to be the 10 or 12th ISI asset to be picked up within last 2 weeks. They seem to have a free run in Desh all these years, it seems.

IAF man held for supplying info to ISI

With the arrest of an Indian Air Force (IAF) technician, the Delhi Police on Tuesday claimed to have busted another espionage network supported by Pakistan’s intelligence agency Inter-Services Intelligence.

This follows five arrests made in another espionage case between November 26 and December 6 from Delhi, Jammu & Kashmir and Siliguri.

Leading aircraftman (LAC) Ranjith K K was posted with Bhatinda Air Force Station. He has been dismissed by the IAF. “Ranjith has confessed to have shared information pertaining to a recent Indian Air Force exercise, movement of aircrafts and deployment of units,” said Joint Commissioner of Police (Crime) Ravindra Yadav.

In return, Ranjith received monetary benefits in his bank account. He allegedly shared information through e-mails and internet-based text messaging services. Ranjith was arrested from Bhatinda Air Force Station on Monday.

“Information was received that serving defence personnel were being pulled into espionage network through a honey-trapping module,” Yadav added. It was revealed that a fictitious Facebook account of an unidentified woman was being used to identify, befriend and lure defence personnel.

Ranjith was deceived with a Facebook profile in the name of ‘Damini McNaught’. She posed as an executive of a UK-based news magazine. “IAF related information was sought in exchange of pecuniary benefits. The woman told Ranjith that it was for the magazine,” Yadav said.

As per the investigation so far, it has been assessed that Ranjith was befooled by cross-border spies. Ranjith had even received few Voice over IP (VoIP) calls on his mobile phone in which a woman with British accent introduced herself as Damini McNaught.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Prabu » 05 Jan 2016 22:49

shiv wrote:Unmissable. Ajit Doval
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5btV4a5Ie_g


I love this Guy. Awesome NSA we got !!

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Guddu » 06 Jan 2016 05:48

I think the Mods should consider a thread on Doval videos. They are inspiring, but also give a peek in to the mind of the NSA. It would also be a great resource for all.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Screambowl » 06 Jan 2016 07:41

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4gt9gnj_54

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4gt9gnj_54[/youtube]

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby ramana » 07 Jan 2016 00:17

Guddu we have Evolution of Indian Strategic thought in Strat Forum for such compilations.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 07 Jan 2016 02:49

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZpIrZvP0Co[/youtube]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZpIrZvP0Co

Vice Admiral (Retd.) Vijay Shankar PVSM, AVSM is the former commander-in-chief of the Andaman & Nicobar Command, commander-in-chief of the Strategic Forces Command, and flag officer commanding the Western Fleet. He retired on September 30, 2009, after nearly forty-five years in uniform, and today passes down his operational and strategic experience through articles and participation in seminars, and lecturing at various universities. The Admiral is an adjunct faculty at the National Institute of Advanced Studies where his papers have been the prime mover for several seminars and workshops;


Some tidbits
1. Arihant was first designed as an SSN, not SSBN.
2. Warheads are to be kept mated when atop canister based missiles. Mating is completely electronic.
3. Doesn't think too highly of AIP/conventional subs ability to escape detection in a boomer role.
4. A nuclear strike aircraft would have to be escorted by ten others.. (Scenario practiced by Indian Forces). Therefore not feasible.
5. Land based not feasible because of Satellite based detection.
6. Deeply worried about Chinese strategy and proliferation.
7. India has some kind of a stewardship program.

Very clear headed. A little over an year old. It appears that there is a very deep strategic engagement going on between the US and India. There are many talks by these think tank types at Hudson, Lawrence Livermore, Brookings... and so on.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby krishna_krishna » 10 Jan 2016 10:28

Guru'sWe need also some discussion on current "sau - irn " conflict and TSP nuts getting cracked. We can get a lot done if we become creative wrt TSP. Think NS life was saved by them but now he is is at the top and not able to deliver even not openly saying that they are against "IRN". Many possibilities

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby ramana » 10 Jan 2016 10:32

Please explore in the many Pak threads.



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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby kmkraoind » 18 Jan 2016 16:21

Pakistani man telephoned BSNL office, asked for army’s call details

According to sources, the caller first hacked a Delhi telephone number and then used that number to call the BSNL office, successfully gleaning the information.

The call, identified as originating in Pakistan, took place on an as-of-now unidentified date around three months ago, when the army was conducting an exercise in the Falsund area of Jaisalmer. The incident came to light after the intelligence wing tracked the call and informed BSNL authorities.
....
The caller, who got in touch with Jaweri Lal, a clerk in the accounts section, identified himself as an army officer and complained about the bill on the temporary line. Lal, without ensuring the security aspect of the same, shared the call details.


May be Chinese are giving technical support to Pakis to hack into our telecom networks.


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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby nits » 18 Jan 2016 22:32




Good Read... i hope a lot has changed by now from below. Surprised to read Navy dont have any cold start type doctrine... or some quick action strategy to punish Pak

Image

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby skaranam » 19 Jan 2016 10:54

3 / 5 options indicate no intelligence...
3 / 5 show unable to stomach backlash of collateral damage....
Does the babudom really believe that conventional superiority prevents an escalation? Interesting take !!!

i believe this is a ankhsaf and murghiness. Good indicator of mindset

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby SidSom » 19 Jan 2016 11:19

No Intelligence, Is really a hard pill to swallow. By the information from Kasab and Haqqani, a lot of these initial and military training camps are held in publicly known areas.

Why is there no option of missile strike on the camps... Maybe a few brahmos (armchair-giri pls pardon) to do the trick. But if the reason that we have no intelligence on the terrorist camps are true, it is really a sad state of affairs.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Austin » 23 Jan 2016 15:14


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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby VinodTK » 25 Jan 2016 04:28

Indian Defence Bases are Facing Security Crisis

NEW DELHI: India has declared war on IS and al Qaeda by arresting 13 terror planners from six states all over the country. More swoops are expected. However, agencies say the state of security in many of India’s vital military and air force bases need to be tightened. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has decided to set up a high-powered committee to review the security situation in and around India’s military installations. Ferozepur, Bhatinda, Kota, Tezpur, Avadi, Chennai, Bengaluru and Secunderabad are considered some of the most vulnerable bases. In Punjab, where ISI-aided terrorists have become active, Ferozepur could be the most exposed to attack, because of its proximity to the Indo-Pak border—just 15 km. Pathankot was 40 km from the border, and the terrorists were able to cross the distance and infiltrate the base easily, where they spread mayhem for three days.

Intelligence agencies say naval bases such as Visakhapatnam, Kochi and Mumbai along India’s coastline are high on the militant target list. Though after the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, various measures were taken to plug the gaps in security the Pathankot terror attacks have exposed loopholes in the overall security system.

Officials in the defence establishment believe that the ever-increasing civilian population in cantonment areas, which include family members of serving staff, military engineer staff and unverified CSD canteen workers and bank employees, are susceptible to external influences inimical to India’s military security. Ill-equipped and inadequately trained security forces, which are responsible for guarding these installations, only make things worse.

Indian naval facilities, including the Karwar naval base (INS Kadamba) in Karnataka, the Southern Naval Command in Kochi (INS Venduruthy) and Mumbai-based Western Naval Command, have always been under threat from 26/11-type attacks. IAF stations in Amritsar, Ambala, Halwara and Pathankot in Punjab, and Tambaram and Port Blair base in the south and Jorhat, Tawag and Tejpur on the eastern threatre have been put on high alert.

The Defence Security Corps (DSC), which is exclusively responsible for securing defence establishments and critical strategic installations, are ‘misfits for the role’, according to sources. The 4,000-strong corps is hobbled by middle age, lack of mobility and equipment, since it is composed of only ex-servicemen aged 38 to 40 years. The unit lacks the training and weaponry needed to meet new age challenges, as it has been trained only to handle old threats like the occasional intrusion of lightly armed anti-social elements or at best insurgents, and hence cannot counter sophisticated terrorist strikes like which happened in Pathankot and Samba. Only eight weeks of basic orientation training is given to DSC staff at the time of joining.

“DSC jawans are supposed to counter heavily armed terrorists with just INSAS rifles and without bulletproof jackets. It is the SLR (self loaded rifle) verses AK-47. You cannot face highly motivated terrorists armed to the teeth with state of the art weaponry with obsolete weapons,” says an officer.

The second drawback is that military bases across the country have been massively encroached by civilians. New Delhi: India has declared war on IS and al Qaeda by arresting 13 terror planners from six states all over the country. More swoops are expected. However, agencies say the state of security in many of India’s vital military and air force bases need to be tightened. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has decided to set up a high-powered committee to review the security situation in and around India’s military installations. Ferozepur, Bhatinda, Kota, Tezpur, Avadi, Chennai, Bengaluru and Secunderabad are considered some of the most vulnerable bases. In Punjab, where ISI-aided terrorists have become active, Ferozepur could be the most exposed to attack, because of its proximity to the Indo-Pak border—just 15 km. Pathankot was 40 km from the border, and the terrorists were able to cross the distance and infiltrate the base easily, where they spread mayhem for three days.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby member_22539 » 25 Jan 2016 10:58

VinodTK wrote:Indian Defence Bases are Facing Security Crisis
“DSC jawans are supposed to counter heavily armed terrorists with just INSAS rifles and without bulletproof jackets. It is the SLR (self loaded rifle) verses AK-47. You cannot face highly motivated terrorists armed to the teeth with state of the art weaponry with obsolete weapons,” says an officer.


First rule of being a presstitute: Never miss a chance to denigrate an indigenous product.

Everything that has been said in this farticle is suspect because just this sentence.

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Aditya G » 25 Jan 2016 17:28

You still need DSCs to perform basic sentry duties. Instead of disowning them, it makes sense to increase their capabilities:

- Increase allottment of DSCs per base
- Issue individual BPJs
- Lighter weapons, say Baretta MX4
- Place them under SPB, MARCOS or Garud officers as applicable
- better optics for day and night
- radios

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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Austin » 26 Jan 2016 10:53

India’s Covert Action Capabilities Stymied By CIA, MI6 Pressure
The biggest question that is on every Indian’s mind even as the messy details of the Pathankot operations gradually come to light is why our intelligence agencies have never had the stomach to resort to covert action to cripple terrorist infrastructures in Pakistan.

What is alarming – and this is based on long and searching conversations I have had with a few covert operation specialists in our intelligence agencies – is that the security organisations have allowed their Western counterparts to control them.

Last evening, as the Pathankot mess unfolded, one former specialist revealed that as far back as 1993-94, the American CIA and British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) literally forbade the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) from launching covert operations in Pakistan. These meetings, which were part of the liaison arrangement that the RAW had – and continues to have – Western intelligence agencies have been to the detriment of India and its ability to strike back clandestinely across the border.

Western Agencies’ Control


“Their argument was that Pakistan being a rogue state does not mean that you too stoop to its levels,” a former top RAW officer said, quoting his American counterpart at one liaison meeting, adding that “we have been forced to fight but with our hands tied behind our backs just because one of the Western agencies’ stakes in Pakistan are far too deep.”

The pressure exerted and the control exercised by the two Western intelligence agencies continues. The only difference now is that there is an additional foreign security organisation (which worked closely with the RAW to train the LTTE) which has been able to establish a stranglehold over our intelligence community.


India’s Covert Action Experience


What is alarming is that the Indian security organisations have allowed their Western counterparts to control them.
Till 1993-94, the CIA and British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) literally forbade the RAW from launching covert operations in Pakistan.
Not just the executive is to be blamed, the IB is known to resort to puerile means to ‘catch spies’
Covert action could also involve mobilising political forces across borders the way it was done with near precision in Bangladesh in 1992


Incapable of Artful Subtlety


Even as the same forces that have repeatedly attacked India have grown in West Asia, the commonsense wisdom should be that it must rest on our ability to know, to understand, to predict and – when the moment is opportune – to act. But India has never had the capability of acting with artful subtlety or, in other words, undertaking covert operations in our neighbourhood.

Ever since the then Prime Minister Inder Gujral issued unwritten orders to wind up RAW’s modest covert action capabilities, the agency has found itself crippled and wanting in raising the cost of the clandestine war for Pakistan.


But it is not just executive orders – and cold feet among India’s political class – that have forced the RAW or even the IB to turn to conventional or benign methods of gathering intelligence. It is no secret that the intelligence agencies, especially the IB, have resorted to underhand, and sometimes puerile means, to “catch spies”.

Past Covert Operations


There indeed was a time – in the 80s and early 90s – that the RAW could act with near-total freedom when covert action would be carried out in India’s neighbourhood. Covert operations need not involve sending in special forces across international borders to create mayhem
and large scale disturbances in neighbouring countries where governments or non-state actors have been inimical to Indian interests.

Covert action could also involve mobilising political forces across borders to bring down governments and this was done with near precision in Bangladesh in 1992 when the RAW was able to bring together the two warring begums – Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia – to run a pro-democracy movement that finally led to the toppling of Lieutenant General H M Ershad.

Specialists have also undertaken covert operations in Afghanistan around the time the Taliban was gaining ground there, clandestinely meeting an Uzbek warlord in European capitals. Others have secretly moved huge consignments of weapons to ethnic insurgent groups in Myanmar.

Narasimha Rao’s Foresight


Former RAW and IB officers recall that the then Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao has been the “only PM” who understood the foreign policy value of covert operations. When brief unsigned proposals would be taken to him, Rao would, as was his wont, simply nodded to give executive approval to individual covert ops. “That executive authority and decisiveness to sanction covert action has since been sorely lacking,” a former RAW special secretary said.

Lack of Commitment

Critics at once assault the RAW and the IB for incompetence and omnipotence. But it is when the country is faced with national security crises that they are exposed as blundering fools who otherwise manage to deviously manipulate information and events to claim success.

After a series of unpardonable failures and blunders, Pathankot has now thrown up questions that have been asked before. Why didn’t we know? Why didn’t we act more aggressively to prevent the attack? Why were we so unprepared to respond quickly? Why did/do we lack the skills of stealth and deception, contacts/sources/agents and the ability to infiltrate/penetrate the deadly jihadi groups in Pakistan?

The one answer to the clutch of questions is: historically, members of our so-called intelligence community, have been inert with no sense of security first and incapable of the derring-do, expertise, specialisation and commitment that the job of collecting and analysing intelligence demands.

Kashi
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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Kashi » 26 Jan 2016 11:30

^ So CIA/MI6 forbade R&AW from covert operations in Pakistan and R&AW dutifully obliged?

devesh
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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby devesh » 26 Jan 2016 11:44

where is @dikgaj/brihaspati when you need him? long ago in my lurker form I first came across his modeling of the Indian State. in the intervening 6 years, events and revelations continue to add data points which support that premise.

sum
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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby sum » 26 Jan 2016 11:45

^^ I call BS on this report

Former RAW and IB officers recall that the then Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao has been the “only PM” who understood the foreign policy value of covert operations. When brief unsigned proposals would be taken to him, Rao would, as was his wont, simply nodded to give executive approval to individual covert ops. “That executive authority and decisiveness to sanction covert action has since been sorely lacking,” a former RAW special secretary said.

I assume our kids will read some extraordinary stuff which were sanctioned in this regime of NaMo
Last edited by sum on 26 Jan 2016 13:28, edited 1 time in total.

partha
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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby partha » 26 Jan 2016 11:47

Austin wrote:India’s Covert Action Capabilities Stymied By CIA, MI6 Pressure
After a series of unpardonable failures and blunders, Pathankot has now thrown up questions that have been asked before. Why didn’t we know? Why didn’t we act more aggressively to prevent the attack? Why were we so unprepared to respond quickly? Why did/do we lack the skills of stealth and deception, contacts/sources/agents and the ability to infiltrate/penetrate the deadly jihadi groups in Pakistan?

How was Pathankot an intel failure? It was a great success, no? There was precise info about the attack target and time range. Is this a failure? I don't think so. I also think news reports about an US agency tipping off Indian agencies and Barbaria passing on the info about impending attack are planted reports to mislead Pakis and protect sources. It's possible intel came from a source in Paki jihadi establishment.

Aditya G
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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby Aditya G » 26 Jan 2016 18:30

The article looks like a leak by raw and ib types who are squirming under pressure by namo to get their shit together.

member_29190
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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby member_29190 » 26 Jan 2016 18:39

This is either an excuse that we will not do anything, because "some XYZ told us to be good...." or Pakis are going to get spanking and later we can claim it's not us as we are completely useless.

srin
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Re: Intelligence and National Security Discussion

Postby srin » 26 Jan 2016 20:19

partha wrote:How was Pathankot an intel failure? It was a great success, no? There was precise info about the attack target and time range. Is this a failure? I don't think so. I also think news reports about an US agency tipping off Indian agencies and Barbaria passing on the info about impending attack are planted reports to mislead Pakis and protect sources. It's possible intel came from a source in Paki jihadi establishment.


It is always an intel failure even if intel is rock solid - esp if it is in this Govt.
If you intercept the buggers in the sea before they attack us, the DDM (desh drohi media) have problems. One journo on this very forum wanted to see bullet holes on CG ship !
If you intercept them on the way to the act, they call it false encounter case.
If you intercept them during the act, then it is a failure.
If you catch their helpers, it is human rights violation.

I'm wondering what is a successful op according to this DDM.


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