Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Y I Patel
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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Y I Patel » 03 Aug 2001 21:59

The question "Does Pak have a third armourded div?" can be broken down more specifically into:<P>(1) Does this armoured formation really exist, and what are its components?<BR>(2) Where is it deployed?<BR>(3) What does Pak intend to do with it?<P>All experts agree that such a formation/equivalent exists, even if the exact composition is being debated. So it now becomes as important and interesting that the other two questions be answered.<P>So far, on question number two, it seems that the most likely deployment area is the Sakargarh bulge. No one has contradicted that so far, but let me go ahead and ask Sanjay and Mandeep explicitly: based on your sources, do you think this is really the case?<P>I ask that because while deployment in Sakargarh bulge makes sense, there are other equally likely candidates such as Rahimyar Khan or southern Sindh. If the formation is still deployed in the bulge, then from what Rudra has compiled, they really do not regard the Rahimyar Khan area as a vital pressure area. Otherwise wouldn't they want to beef up the Multan corps with a second armd div, or atleast send their best tanks (T-80UDs) to that elite corps?<P>That brings us to question number three. What do they want this new armoured formation to do? Again, if it is the bulge, then it would primarily play a defensive or counter-offensive role against an attacking Indian corps. But then again, if deployed even slightly north, its likely mission can change.<P>So what do you guys thnk?

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Bishwa » 03 Aug 2001 22:39

<B>2) Where is it deployed?<BR> (3) What does Pak intend to do with it? </B><P>IMHO the PA believes in a conventional war they can to a Bangladesh on us. Their thinking could be like this:<P>There are three lines of communication to the Kashmir Valley.<BR>1. Via Kargil<BR>2. Via Jammu<BR>3. Via air<P>The Kargil line can be interdicted by artilley and shutoff. A trust via the Shakargarh bulge will cut the second.<P>This way they will have elements of 2 IA Corps bottled up in JK.<P>Then an attack in the Kashmir valley can be carried out. This will be helped by their men in Kashmir who will disrupt the IAs line of communication and create mayhem in the rear.<P>Their men will also ensure the shutting down of the Srinagar and Avantiput air bases thus cutting of the last route of escape.<P>At the end they will have a surrender ceremony in Srinagars Parade Grounds were 500000 IA and Paramilitary troops will surrender.<P>Might seem like wishfull thinking. Just remember they are the same people who thought out Kargil as a way to get Siachen and get even for support to Mukti Bahini.<P>And for that they have 3 Armed Bdes in the bulge.<P><p>[This message has been edited by bishwa (edited 03-08-2001).]

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Rudra » 03 Aug 2001 22:47

I dunno if Pakdef is right, but they did <BR>mention that T-80UDs _were_ present in the<BR>Multan corps too. someone who knows the <BR>orbat and the regiment #s of t-80s might <BR>match.<P>dont forget further to the south. they have<BR>been setting up to cause a lot of mayhem <BR>in the kutch area, perhaps using that as a <BR>backup infiltration channel. in winter perhaps the rann is bone dry and passable<BR>for armour ? a pakdef post mentioned an<BR>exercise in that area with 10,000men and some<BR>helos. maybe a strong indep-brigade type<BR>mobile group might be tasked to swing thru<BR>the area making as much noise as they can,<BR>threaten a deeper assault into south gujrat<BR>across the gulf of kutch and draw off <BR>1 IA strike corps from its mission further<BR>north?

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Sanjay » 03 Aug 2001 23:40

Let us not assume that the Indian army in the J&K theatre is defenceless or incompetent. There are also ample troops to deal with any attempt at disruption - provided human rights concerns are ignored.<P>There are also valid concerns regarding terrain suitability for mass armour.<P>Also, I don't see Pakistan raising any Mech. Inf. Division. They'll have the same problem India had when 33 Mech was raised. No real role. What they will seek to do is to mechanize more of their infantry formations.<P>Actually, I was told in perhaps March-May 1998, that tank vs. tank combat is not what the Indian army intends ( at least not directly ). Any Pakistani attacking formation is going to be first confronted by layers and layers of anti-armour missiles, RCLs and mines. If you recall some MoD pics from Poorna-Vijay, there are clear pics of infantry tank traps being prepared. Also, anti-tank missiles are being very widely issued and are being fitted with thermal imagers.<P>For all its irrationality, weirdness and apparent permanently confused image, it seems that the Indian army has finally decided to come up with some really workable doctrines and is intent on equipping itself to meet any possible challenges.<P>BTW, do recall that India evalutated the T-80 tank in the 1980s and rejected it. So it is not an unknown quantity.<P>Rakesh, I am uncertain if T-72 production has actually stopped. Something over 2000 T-72s are in service most of them T-72M1. Priority has gone to the upgrade of these tanks now. It appears that the T-90 will replace it on the production line.<P>

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Rudra » 04 Aug 2001 00:41

Does anyone know if we have big AT mines<BR>that can be seeded by helicopter into <BR>selected areas ?<P>NATO laid great store in seeding the flanks<BR>of any advance with fleets of helos which<BR>would then channel any advance into grids<BR>which were long since carefully calibrated<BR>by everything from light arty to MLRS.<P>We have to prepare our minefields on maybe<BR>1-2 days notice as I figure thats the only<BR>warning we will get if TSP decides on a <BR>surprise move, their cantts are close to<BR>border.

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby rrikhye » 04 Aug 2001 01:06

Hmmm. Sanjay raises a number of interesting points on how orbats are made. I remember reading an artillery article by Maj. Sawhney and it was clear this was a youngster who really knew his stuff.<P>On the PRO side for a Pakistan third armored division: ever since 33 Mech was converted to 33 Armored, we've had three. No doubt Pakistan likes to keep up - show has a lot to do with your own morale. Every reason to expect a Pak third armd div, and 3 is an excellent number as they already have 1 and 6; number 7 and up are taken, and only 2,3,4,5 are left. I dont offhand recall a British 4th or 5th Armd Div from WW2, there certainly was a 2nd and a 3rd Armd. Pakistan has used 2nd for its artillery division.(All our numbers are taken from the old British-Indian Army unless - as in India's case - you run out of the old numbers).<P>Okey dokey. This said, there is an equal argument for no third armd div. These things are hideously expensive and they are not very flexible. They are very hard to operate tactically because both sides are infantry-dominated armies. Pakistan has had no good luck with operating entire armored divs (not that we have either). They have raised two ind armored brigades; with their limited resources to put in a whole armd div also in the same 3-5 years is a lot.<P>Actually Mandeep has been around for many years: he didnt start writing for the public till recently. He first wrote about Pakistan mechanized divisions, and then had to recant (as we all have to on some point sooner or later) because MI pointed out that Pakistan didnt have the requisite APC/IFV output or import. <P>Let me give you an example of how very serious people like Maj. Sawhney, Mandeep, myself can get misled. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan needed more troops for the western border. For years MI and everyone else was looking for those two divisions. Pushpindar Chopra and myself even got numbers for them - 57 and 60. The truth was, they were not raised till years later because the US wouldnt give Pakistan the money. Pakistan had to spend its own money, and when the divisions were raised, they were numbered 40 and 41. <P>Orbatting is a very tricky biz. I already mentioned that sometimes armies create formations for CPXs pr even real exercises, and the information sticks. In 1971, India put out it had a 93 Infantry Division - no such thing, someone just did that to mess up the minds on the other side. In 1988, we in India were expecting a whole slew of new divisions because they had been authorized, partly as a response to the 1985 15-year plan. I had foreign attaches swearing there was a 56 Division in the Northeast - people were said to have seen the shoulderpatch. Those divisions were not raised because the money ran out. There was no 56 Division.<P>So I dont doubt that someone Maj. Sawhney trusts told him about a third Pak armd div and there may well be one. But equally there are people who should know saying there is none. They may be wrong. Its not an easy thing to get straightened out.<P>In my younger days I used to add every little piece of info I got on Pakistan and take a kind of maximum threat. Bit by bit I began understanding that that was not a good way of doing things - used to get very inflated figures. For example, in 1964 Pak raised 6 Armd and 11 Infantry Divisions. But it did so by bleeding other units, coverting TDUs to tank regiments (not helpful in terms of real increase in strength) and shorting other divisions. Pakistan divisions as organized by the US often had only 7 battalions, not the nine standard. Two division flags were raised, but not really two divisions. So I had a completely exaggrerated sense of Pakistan's strength in 1965.<P>Dave's article link seems quite reasonable - mechanized divisions apart and two artillery divisions. But the article kills itself by talking about narco money to buy equipment for mechanization. The Pakistan Government does not as a government traffic in drugs and use the money for military equipment; moreover, given that the price of drugs at origin is typically 1/20th or less of US street price, you would have to be traffiking hundreds of tons of drugs to mechanize even one division. Sure, ISI traffiks and uses the money to line own pockets as well as support clandestine ops. CIA did it too in South East Asia though it has never been convincingly nailed for it. I've talked to people who spoke of Special Forces duty in Laos, escorting drug convoys, as being the toughtest duty they ever did because everyone was trying to get their hands on the shipments, the "pure" Viet Cong and NVA as well as the Chinese and every local. The US hand in the "Muj" drug dealing in Afghanistan is very, very murky. I never heard of the Indians doing drugs to support undercover ops, by the way - one reason might be there has usually been more money than viable operations and agents, from quite legal govt. budget sources.<P>I hope this round about answer satisfies Sanjay. Never go by one source - three is a minimum.<P>BTW, the great Myself learned of Pakistan XXXI Corps from a college student who said he was an admirer and wanted to meet me. No one in Indian intelligence had uttered a peep - you have to understand that the orbat part of Indian intelligence consists of tiny cells who dont much talk to each other leave alone to the rest of the military, and who dont have much by way of resources. Turns out the student overheard a conversation from friends of the family, and turns out he was right - there really was a XXXI Corps, but I had to go to some foreigners to confirm it at the time - the Indians wouldnt or couldnt.

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Rudra » 04 Aug 2001 02:07

if the orbat part of our MI thinks its best <BR>to know but not the tell the military, isnt<BR>it time someone kicked their behinds very<BR>hard and changed their attitude ? <P>maybe the proposed reforms also address this<BR>"need to know basis" issue.

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Sanjay » 04 Aug 2001 02:14

Mr. Rikhye,<P>Just to say, Sawhney is about your age give or take a couple years ( maybe about 5 years younger ).<P>The one thing that seems conclusive is that a 3rd. Armoured Div. equivalent exists. The thing we are arguing about is whether such a division has been constituted as such. As far as I see it, the introduction of the 320 T-80UDs are the confusing factor. Pakistan has always sought Operational Parity with India and a third armoured division would fit into that logic.<P>Did Pakistan raise that third armoured to incorporate and mass these tanks or not ?<P>I again stress the fact that talk of the third armoured division really took on momentum after the contract for the T-80s.<P>Solve exactly how Pakistan intends to deploy and employ the T-80s and an answer may emerge.<P>Some strange sub-strength armoured regiments exist on both sides. I've heard of some in Pakistan to being down to as few as 30 tanks.<P>In India's case, the plan was to raise 65 full strength armoured regiments by 2000.<BR>I'm not sure if that was achieved, but 62 were in existence at the time I last checked.<P>One thing of interest is that India's Third Strike Corps lacked, until recently, the same CADA Kvadrat SAM Group that was attached to the other two. Don't know if that was ever changed.<P>As per your point about using three sources as a minimum, you'd be surprised how many agreed with Sawhney. You're correct though about using many sources. In the 1990s, however, there was so much interest in this non-proliferation stuff that ORBATs were not being published regularly outside the IISS.<P>I stress again with 320 new tanks being added to the Pakistani ORBAT - 320 of the highest quality tanks Pakistan could afford -the answer as to how and where they are to be deployed and employed could lead us to the answer as to whether a 3rd Armoured Division exists or is planned. <BR><p>[This message has been edited by Sanjay (edited 03-08-2001).]

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Naidu » 04 Aug 2001 04:23

Thanks everybody for this most excellent thread. I, and others like me, have questions regarding some of the abbreviations that have been used in this tread so far. I did some rudimentary looking around and figured out some, but need help with others:<BR><BR>ORBAT: Order of Battle<BR>TOE: Table of Equipment<BR>ARS/ARN: PA Army Reserve South/North. Are these corps-sized formations?<BR>TDU: Tank Deployment Units<BR>PAVO Cavalry: Prince Albert's Very Own Cavalry (thx Rupak)<BR>AD: Air Defence<BR>CPX: ? (some sort of exercise?)<BR>FCNA: PA Force Command/Commander Northern Areas (A corps-sized formation deployed in POK opposite IA's Kargil, Siachen sectors).<BR>DCB defences: Ditch-cum-Bund defences (thx Rupak, Rakesh & Sanjay)<BR>R&O Battalions: Recconnaisance & Observation/Scout (thx Sanjay & Rupak)<BR>CADA Kradvat: A type of Air Defence SAM system. Kradvat is the name of the system. CADA is the Corps of Air Defence Artillery. (thx Rupak)<BR><BR>(I'm updating this as the answers are provided.)<P>Thanks in advance for all your answers! <BR><BR>-Naidu<p>[This message has been edited by Naidu (edited 03-08-2001).]

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Bishwa » 04 Aug 2001 04:31

I am curious about one point:<P>The Indian Army has more tanks than the Pakistani Army. Does that translate into more armoured regiments and brigades on the ground?<P><BR>Anybody have an estimate how many armoured regiments the pakistani army fields?

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Rupak » 04 Aug 2001 04:50

Naidu<P><BR>PAVO Cavalry: Prince Victor Albert's Own Cavalry (11 Frontier Force) - alloted to Pakistan post-1947<BR>DCB defences: Ditch cum bund defences<BR>R&O Battalions: I know R&S Bn are Recce abd Scout Bn<BR>CADA Kradvat: CADA = Corps of AD Artillery

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Sanjay » 04 Aug 2001 05:17

R&O = recce and observation.<BR>You know for a long time the Pakistanis had been grouping jeep mounted 106mms into recce+ support units ? Well we've started doing something similar - except much more heavily. Unsure of details. You know how it is, you get a scrap here and a scrap there, then you have to wonder if your source is sober - typical life for an Indian military researcher.<P>DCB are very formidable earthen defences sometimes flooded. <P>Rakesh, as per armoured regiments, I am not sure since my figure of 62 is a little dated - probably about 3 years old.<p>[This message has been edited by Sanjay (edited 03-08-2001).]

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby rama » 04 Aug 2001 05:46

Having nothing to contribute myself to this excellent thread, I did what any self-respecting mouse-clicking armchair general would do. I put Google to work on this problem. Utterly mundane excercise, as you can guess (briefly: half a dozen Paki sites say *two* armoured divisions). Except for this snippet:<BR> <A HREF="http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/spedition/nuclear/april-99/main1-13-04-99.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/spedition/nuclear/april-99/main1-13-04-99.htm</A> <P>It apparently quotes President (then COAS)<BR>Musharraf summarizing the PA Orbat, and he says two armoured divisions and seven armoured brigades. The audience is completely non-defence related, but the Pakis do love to brag!<p>[This message has been edited by rama (edited 03-08-2001).]

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Y I Patel » 04 Aug 2001 21:18

Some simple but revealing calculations:<P>Per Sunil's post on page one of this thread, the approx. number of tanks in a Pak div would be as follows:<P>1 Armd Bde = 3 Regts = 3*41 tanks = 123 tanks.<P>Now if the div has two armd bdes and 1 mech bde with 1 tank regt, then the total comes to 2*123+41 = 287 tanks.<P>Given that Paks have ordered 320 T-80UDs, this leaves about one regt worth of tanks to spare. <P>Using BCs figures instead of Mandeep's for a tank regt gives 59*3=177tanks/bde or a total of 2*177+59 = 403 tanks. Leaving out the armd regt in the mech bde gives 344 tanks.<P>In summary, Pak's have ordered roughly an armd div's worth of T-80 UDs, which fits nicely with the hypothesis that they want to form a new div by concentrating these tanks.<P>I would note in passing that based on these numbers, a Pak armd div seems to be significantly smaller (and weaker) than an Indian armd div. But one advantage they have is an SP arty bde attached to the armd div. We can match their SP arty in firepower but not in mobility. And right now we possess better MBRLs then they do. With Smerch, the advantage will become more pronounced.

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby rama » 05 Aug 2001 02:43

How can the number of tanks be indicative of their desires. 320 tanks (also incidentally the number IA is ordering) can make a new division or OTOH it can make/reequip 2 or 3 independent brigades(admittedly 3 is a stretch).<P>While one brand new division out of this new hardware has it's merit - don't they have to worry about 3 or more separate sectors for deployment (Jammu with probably them on the offense, Rajasthan-Punjab with us on the offense or Kutch with them on the offense again). How good of logistics does Pakistan have in terms of moving a division around? I.e. in case they deploy it in one place and it becomes obvious that they miscalculated and need atleast some of their best tank formations elsewhere - wont they be stuck?<P>

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Sanjay » 05 Aug 2001 05:53

Guys, the one thing that seems clear is that the T-80UDs do not seem to be replacing an equal number of older tanks.<P>Everything - including the number - points to a 3rd Armoured Division equivalent.<P>Now, to throw a wild card into everyone's calculation, some Pak. armoured regiments are down to fewer than 32 tanks. <P>What implications does that have ?<P>As far as the Indian armour is concerned, I think that the T-72 is about to be replaced in production by the T-90. The two tanks have a similar lineage. <P>Priority goes to Vijayanta replacement. The Vijayanta upgrade was deemed technically viable, but the cost of re-engining the tanks sank it. Too much had to be done. I can elaborate if you desire.<P>The Vijayanta fleet is now suffering from automotive exhaustion. Thinking that they'd be replaced in the mid-1980s, they were apparently used and used and used.<P>I'll tell you an interesting point of trivia:<P>Battle assessments after Chechenya indicated that the Russian army's T-72s performed better than the newer T-80s. <P>Go figure.

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Rudra » 05 Aug 2001 08:04

BR Hoooooooo!!<P>seems ukraine started supplying the T-80UDs<BR>at first but later switched to a model called<BR>T-84. the latter has welded turret tech which<BR>is considered superior to cast turrent. seems the older ones will eventually all get upgraded to T-84 standard.<P>[the first line should explain where I read this. maybe its a form of greeting in NWFP? Image]<BR>

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Sukumar » 05 Aug 2001 21:32

This debate reminds me of the sparring seen in the early days of BR when SBM was a more frequent contributor. SBM, you should contribute more to the forum as you have time.<P>It seems to me that a question on the existence of the 3rd armored division in the PA would be one of doctrine. It seems apparent that the PA has had a doctrinal shift from the grandiose days of the Ayub/Yahya Khans who dreamed of an armored thrust capturing Delhi or lopping off Kashmir - to a strategy of low intensity conflict to bleed India from a million cuts and wean away Kashmir thro insurgency.<P>Pakistan has thus finally understood that it cannot defeat India on a conventional battlefield in an offensive role. The PA's heavy units seem designed to blunt and repel any possible Indian attacks aimed at chopping up Pak into fine pieces. From this perspective it would make sense for the PA to parcel its armored forces into independent armored brigades which can then be either concentrated or deployed "as needed" to blunt an offensive. We have thus seen the increase in the number of independent armored brigades in the last decade or so. The PA has also focussed on "beefing up" its existing formations with more material and personnel.<P>Having said this, I think the question of the existence of a badged PA third armored division is a moot point. More a question of vanity for the ORBAT experts.

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Sanjay » 05 Aug 2001 22:30

The one think none of us has really done is to really study subcontinent armoured doctrines. <P>Many things could be made clearer. <P>In 1996-97, I was told that India will not be raising any more armoured divisions but will raise several more independent armoured brigades as there were several sectors where the presence of armour - even Vijayantas could be used to exert enormous pressure on the Pakistani formations facing them.<P>I still would like to know how the Pakistanis intend to deploy and employ their T-80s.

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby rrikhye » 05 Aug 2001 23:02

Sanjay, I have to hand it to you for sticking by your guns: I have to admire that. I have a completely open mind on the issue and while I am 100% out of touch with people who should know, if I come across anything, I'll of course share it with everyone.<P>32 tanks per Pak regiment: again, am out of touch, but reconnaisance regiments have fewer tanks and have motorized/mechanized infantry, usually at least one company. Pakistan used to maintain one reconnaissance regiment per corps.<P>Plan 2000: as formulated in 1985 and okayed, called for 8 mech, 4 tank, and 7 RAPIDS divisions. Lots more than 65 regiments once you count the strike corps reserve brigades.<P>Armored division useless without mechanized division. Not so. Remember WW2 was fought without mechanized divisions. Israelis dont even have mechanized divisions - their main regular force is 11 armored divisions. The difference between US armored and mechanized divisions is so slight that there is no practical distinction. Etc etc.<P>I'd like to know more about the Kutch. Most of the year it is the Mother of Swamps and I cant believe the salt does anything for machinery. Winter, okay - I would be worried all the time about my AFVs breaking a hard salt pan area and sinking, so I would stick to the roads, which is not going to help an attacker much. Again, though, I'd love to be educated on the georgraphy. India does keep a brigade at Bhuj.<P>Tank vs tank: absolutely, 100% agreement from me. Most useless thing to do. You use tanks against infantry, avoid other tanks if you can. Infantry today has a plethora of weapons against tanks. US Marine Corps lands with few tanks - one large battalion per division - they train their infantry to go looking for tanks. Israeli success of 1967 were a freak - 1973 more typical: slow, hard slog. We dont really know what will happen in large-scale tank actions in a future war, which is very troubling. In the Gulf War, US attack helicopter companies (6 AH-64 at a time) would go out and bag ten, twenty, thirty AFVs at a time - okay, this was an exceptional circumstance too, but there is no doubt the attack helicopter can really mess up things.<P>Tanks very nice in armored advance under tactical nuclear conditions. You can land a 20 KT warhead on a tank battalion and kill at most a third of it if you're lucky. Also nothing like tanks if you can unnerve the opponent.<P>Again, everyone, thanks - very informative discussion.<P>

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Rupak » 06 Aug 2001 11:30

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by prakashkukreja:<BR><B>Pakistan negotiating for more T-80s <BR></B><HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>With the super tank Al-Khalid already built, why on earth do the Pakistanis want more T-80s?<P>I'm completely befuddled!<P>

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Rudra » 06 Aug 2001 18:20

spent some time yesterday looking at a nice<BR>bartholomew pak map in a bookshop.<P>From around Hyderabad in south to Multan<BR>in North, there is a {road,rail} pair both<BR>on East and West of the Indus. The Indus is<BR>a extremely formidable obstacle and well<BR>beyond our ability to cross against any<BR>opposition.<P>The rail on the West cross to East north of<BR>Multan and joins its partner, which falls into a nice grid in western punjab.<P>The road on east bank splits into three<BR>main branches around Multan. towards Sargodha, between sargodha and lahore and<BR>towards lahore.<P>Another rail heads west across the desert<BR>to Quetta. but therafter does not seem to<BR>have any connection to Paks northern areas.<P>Between Sukkur and Rahim yar khan is where<BR>India is closest to Indus on a broad front.<BR>this is also their bottleneck with just<BR>2 roads and 2 rails for entire North-South<BR>logistics. <P>The other place where they have good road<BR>and rail grid is near hyderabad in sindh and<BR>infact there is a rail marked entering India<BR>also.<P>There were two roads marked across the Rann.<BR>overall the marshy parts appear to be quite<BR>narrow N-S hence if they cross they can<BR>pounce on Bhuj.<P>But I think better idea is to attack at the<BR>point where Rann joins the mainland and<BR>is very narrow. this will isolate entire<BR>Bhuj/Nalia and threaten the heartland of<BR>Eastern gujrat and have the option of lancing<BR>into the southern of the 2 indian strike<BR>corps expected to be working the Sukkur-Rahim Yar Khan front. From the north, the Multan corps might crash the flank of our Northern strike corps after letting it extend itself a little bit. not a pincer by any means due to the huge size and lack of<BR>roads in western rajasthan.<P>we seem to have a very nice road and rail <BR>grid all over the place. a very massive counter road and rail campaign would be needed to hit the heartland, but rails in rajasthan are few and hence vulnerable to cuts.<P>Also another map of NE revealed a lot to me.<BR>Our road network in Arunachal is almost non-existent. forget roads to the border, everything seems to end just barely 100km into arunachal. Esp the eastern districts are totally a blank. <P>On the chinese side, there also doesnt seem<BR>to be much grandeur. Lhasa is damn NEAR to<BR>us (never realized it). A huge attack from<BR>bhutan, sikkim, arunachal would be possible<BR>to reach except that there are just a couple<BR>of roads.<P>the PRC has a nice dagger pointed at chicken<BR>neck near siliguri as their territory extends deep between sikkim and bhutan.<P><BR>

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Amitabh » 06 Aug 2001 20:14

<I>the PRC has a nice dagger pointed at chicken neck near siliguri as their territory extends deep between sikkim and bhutan.</I><P>AFAIK, it's all uphill for them and downhill for us in that area. So the advantage is India's.

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Sanjay » 06 Aug 2001 21:37

Mr. Rikhye,<BR>It's not a case of sticking to my guns. They aren't mine. We're all friends here and some have spent a great deal of time studying various aspects of Indian security, professionally or privately. We all, therefore, have a role in kicking ideas around and perhaps we'll come up with something.<P>This is not a forum about right and wrong.<BR>Nobody is sure here.<BR>I go with the source I had at the time.<BR>If evidence comes up, I change my views. <BR>ORBATs change and that's a fact.<P>The T-80s were a big deal when purchased and I stress that they don't seem to have replaced any older tanks.<P>As far as that report regarding the 200 extra T-80s go, I've seen it, but nothing has been heard since. I suspect funding problems.<P>Now, regarding the 32 tanks per regiment, I understand what Mr. Rikhye is saying, but I'm saying something different.<P>I'm talking about real combat regiments down to 32 tanks. Spares and funding have cut deep into some regiments. <P>Should also say that some of our own Vijayanta units are a bit run down as well. Automotive exhaution is very near.<P>I'll tell you this about army plan 2000, it almost totally neglected adequate infantry equipment. Web gear needed replacing, body armour was almost non-existent etc.<P>This came, indirectly, I gather, from then Lt. General Padhmanabhan. I can't prove it, but then, I can't ignore it.<P>But then, isn't that what makes this all worthwhile ?<BR><p>[This message has been edited by Sanjay (edited 06-08-2001).]

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Y I Patel » 06 Aug 2001 21:58

Rudra<P>Thanks for yet another highly educative post. I believe that a Pak attack from Sindh into Gujarat would play to our strengths and their weaknesses. <P>* Unlike in the Jammu area, they enjoy no advantages of favorable geography or populations hostile to India. <P>*The flat terrain is ideal for arty/armour deployment, where India currently enjoys a decisive local numerical advantage even without deploying a strike corps in this area. I will not go further into Indian orbat keeping in mind admin sensitivity on this matter. Also reflect that this region falls under one of IAFs two strongest commands - SWAC. There are some excellent air bases in the area you are talking about. What can they counter it with?<P>*If Pak chooses to send one of their precious strike corps in this area, they will leave vast swathes of their own vulnerable territoy undefended. <P>* Most of the populated heartland of Gujarat is more than 200 km away from the border. The nearest Pak city close to the border is Hyderabad, which is about 200 km away. The region in between is thinly populated semi-arid land - this means that an attacker would face an enormous logistics problem. Paks just don't have that kind of logistical backup. Their "strike" corps, are really "Strike against an attacking Indian formation" Corps. They are not equipped to mount deep penetration attacks of the kind you outline. If they do try antything, IA would have to be rushed in on a mercy mission to prevent them from dying of thirst. Did you know that even "Poorna Vijay" required 40000 tons of water? How much will a real full corps+ strength attack require?<P>* To summarize, in analysing any Pak capabilities or intentions, it is always wise to keep the full picture in mind. All their corps level formations already have their tasks cut out. And the next innings will not be isolated air/land/sea wars. The Indian Military can bring its combined strength to bear in Gujarat region and the cumulative effect from all operations in the region as well as outside it must be considered while analysing any move on either side of the border.

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby JCage » 06 Aug 2001 23:27

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by rupak:<BR><B> With the super tank Al-Khalid already built, why on earth do the Pakistanis want more T-80s?<P>I'm completely befuddled!<P></B><HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>Afaik,the T80U series is their spear.The alkhalids are the bulk ...along with the ALZarrars.With the t90 induction/t72 upgrade,advantage india once again(simplistically speaking...),so no harm in getting a few more T80's.Lest we forget,the alkhalid has also had a protracted devpt ..that too with a chinese design transferred as it is. Image<P><B>Dr Sanjay,</B><BR>Thank you for your superb snippets of info.They add upto quite a lot.<P><BR>Regards,<BR>nitin<P><p>[This message has been edited by nitin (edited 06-08-2001).]

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby JCage » 06 Aug 2001 23:54

The more i go thru' this thread ,the more i am amazed at the depth of knowledge shown by all..vvyas,rudra,mandeep,raviji,sainis..and other BR'ers.<P>VVyas,<BR>Are you doing a piece on poorna vijay for BRM?<P>Regards,<BR>nitin<BR>

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby dsandhu » 06 Aug 2001 23:56

Vikram<P>An IA Strike through the Kutch area would not be a good idea was the area has poor communications and roads and major problem of drinking water. <P>Pak would lose face and face internal political pressure if India captures areas in POK, Punjab or threatens the Sindh Green Belt. Rann on the other hand is a waste/ semi waste land for Pak. If the Rann is dry when IA roll over it and capture some areas and sit on it , it will be the IA which faces major problems when the rains come. Also against PAK areas in POK, Punjab and Sindh belt are far more greater bargining chips than lots of area in the Rann.<P>Also the article by Sanjay in the BRM are the things which will unfold in a brief Indo pak conflict before the "bomb" comes into the picture

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Y I Patel » 07 Aug 2001 00:03

Nitin<P>Yes, I am doing a piece on PV which will hopefully appear in the next BRM issue.<P>A related note is that it may be 40000 liters, not tonnes. I need to check my PV notes to make sure.<P>Dave,<BR>You are right that attacking from Kutch does not make much sense for us. All I am saying is that it makes even less sense for Pak to attack in this area. And that we have made arrangements to welcome them if they do decide to go ahead.

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Bishwa » 07 Aug 2001 01:18

How many armoured regiments does pakistan have?

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Sanjay » 07 Aug 2001 04:53

Vikram,<BR>Just remember, we've conducted exercises in the Desert before and our water logistics have had to be developed over the years.<BR>If you're doing something on PV, I'd like to see something on the infantry NBC aspect.<BR>There was an AP photo of infantry in NBC gear exercising. If more details can be obtained of the make of their suits and respirators and whether they are now general issue, it would be of great interest.

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Rudra » 07 Aug 2001 08:11

is there plans to issue some simple body<BR>armour to frontline units atleast ? <P>should drastically cut down sharpnel injuries<BR>and reduce the severity of wounds.<P>this is something thats quite simple and<BR>cheap if done right. hopefully, $300<BR>phoren suits wont be considered at all.<BR>

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Sunil » 07 Aug 2001 21:44

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR><BR><B>How many armoured regiments does pakistan have?</B><HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>From TOE estimates in this thread alone. <P>3 X Armd. Div = 3 X (2 X 3) = 18 Armd Regts.<BR>7 X (I)Armd. BDes= 7 X 3 = 21 Armd Regts.<BR>19 X Inf. Div = 19 X 1 = 19 Armd Regts. <P>This makes for about 58 Armd Regts at 41 tanks a piece this amounts to 2378 tanks. <P>However the number of tanks in the PA inventory as per CSIS <BR> <A HREF="http://www.csis.org/military/sa_conv_mil_bal_sa.pdf" TARGET=_blank>http://www.csis.org/military/sa_conv_mil_bal_sa.pdf</A> <P>there are about 2285 MBTs in the PA inventory. This makes for approx 55 regts. <P>I feel that most likely some regts are under strength. <P>The CSIS report makes for interesting reading. <P>The IPCS data <BR> <A HREF="http://www.ipcs.org/projects/mil-data/mil-pak.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.ipcs.org/projects/mil-data/mil-pak.htm</A> <P>shows the following break up. <P>Main Battle Tanks : ( 2,050 + ) <P>M-47 120 (status ??)<BR>M-48A5 280 (status ??)<BR>T-54/55 50 (Al-Zarrar (?))<BR>T-59 Chinese 1,200 (Upgrade to Al Zarrar)<BR>T-69 Chinese 200 (Upgrade to Al Khalid)<BR>T-85 Chinese 200 + (Al Khalid)<BR> <A HREF="http://www.janes.com/defence/land_forces/news/jdw/jdw001122_1_n.shtml." TARGET=_blank>http://www.janes.com/defence/land_forces/news/jdw/jdw001122_1_n.shtml.</A> <P>Now we add to this the T-80UD ukranian (320 nos) then we get approx. 2370 tanks which is closer to the 3 division estimate. <P>There is another upgrade package called Al-Hussein.. i don't quite know what that is. <P>Aprox 12 regiments comprising T-55s and M47/48s are most likely understrength or in need of serious maint. These are most likely attached to the infantry divisions. The T-69,85 are attached to the Ind. Armd Bdes and the Armd Divs. <P>The janes article leads us to believe that all the T-59 regiments and the T-69,85 regiments are undergoing a major overhaul. At this point in time the T-80UDs would be needed to fulfill any sudden commitments across the entire front. So maybe that's why they haven't yet formally made a division, i.e it is much easier to fill the existing gaps with (I)Armd. Bdes.<P>Also could it that the `extra' T-80UD as per vikram's calculation is some sort of transition regiment i.e. hold on to this while your T-59/69/85 is being upgraded one regiment at a time?<BR><p>[This message has been edited by sunil sainis (edited 07-08-2001).]

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Bishwa » 08 Aug 2001 02:01

there are about 2285 MBTs in the PA inventory. This makes for approx 55 regts. <P>55 regts with 2285 tanks. That is an aerage of 41 tanks per regiment.<P>Compare that to the IAs 63 regiments with 3500 tanks. That is an average of 55 tanks per regiment. For the T72s & T55s it is about 54, for Vijantas it is about 71. <P>With the kind of tanks per regiment they have, the IA could field 85 regiments.<P>So the question is why this difference? The possibilities being:<P>1. IA has a maintenance problem with its tanks thus they need more per regiment. While this might be true for the Vijayantas the rest have the same linage as the PA tanks. So<BR>this does might not be the whole answer.<P>2. PA is intend on fighting a short war and thus has spread themselves thin.<P><BR>Any comments?

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Sunil » 08 Aug 2001 02:36

<A HREF="http://members.tripod.com/collinsj/PAKISTANI%20ARMOURED.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://members.tripod.com/collinsj/PAKISTANI%20ARMOURED.htm</A> <P>First time i am seeing this TOE. He apparently knows about BR, but i don't know where he got this from. <P>It takes a while to load but here is the relevant section. <P>PAKISTANI ARMOURED BRIGADE<P>COMPULSORY TROOPS<P>Battlegroup HQ<BR> 1x M113A2 with C.Grp(A)<BR>Up to<BR> 1x M113A2 with FAO<BR> <BR>Recce Section<BR> 4x jeep-mg<BR>Up to <BR> 2x MBT<BR> <P>REMAINING POINTS FROM THE FOLLOWING:-<P>Up to 3 Tank Companies<BR> CHQ<BR> 2x MBT<BR>3 or 4 Platoons<BR> 3x MBT<BR> <BR>Up to 3 Mechanised Companies<BR> CHQ<BR> 1x M113 with C.Grp(B)<BR> 1x M113 with 2x SFMG<BR> <BR>3 Platoons<BR> PHQ<BR> 1x M113 with C.Grp(A)<BR> 3x M113 with I.Grp(B), I.Grp(C)<BR> <BR>1 Platoon<BR> PHQ<BR> 1x M113 with C.Grp(B), MFC<BR> <BR>1 section<BR> 2x M901 or 2x M113 w/Red Arrow 8 launcher<BR> <BR>1 section<BR> 2x M125 (81mm Mortar)<BR> <BR>Up to 3 Recce Platoons<BR> 4x Jeep-MG<BR> OR<BR> 1x M113 with C.Grp(B)<BR> 1x M113 with I.Grp(B), I.Grp(C)<BR> <BR>Up to 2 AA Sections<BR> 2x M113 with CG-PSAM<BR>IR-PSAM may be attached to Mech CHQ<BR>FAO in Jeep/M113 <BR>MFC in Jeep/M113<BR> <P>ARTILLERY (off table)<P>DIR/GEN <P>Up to 2 Field Artillery Battalions<BR> M109A2<BR> 3x 6 SP 155mm Howitzers<BR> <BR>Up to 1 Heavy Artillery Battalion<BR> M110A2<BR> 3x 4 203mm SP Howitzers<BR> <BR>Up to 1 Rocket Battery<BR> BM21<BR> 6x 122mm SRL<BR> <P>HELICOPTERS<P> Up to 1 Flight 3x AH-1S<P>ORGANISATIONS<P>1)All tanks used must be of the same type. <BR>2) FAO/MFC may be given II/TI, GPI and/or LR. <BR>3) Type 85AP from 1992 onwards. T-80UD from 1997 onwards. Al Zarrar from 1999 on. <BR>4) al Zarrar is Type 59M upgraded with 125mmSB, IFC, ERA, Fast Mobility, smoke dischargers. <BR>5) Pakistani T-80UD is NOT equipped with AT-11 Sniper ATGM. <P>EQUIPMENT<BR>MBT: Type 59M, Type 85AP, M48A5, T-80UD.<P>INFANTRY TYPES<BR>(A) AsR or SLR<BR>(B) AsR or SLR + MIAT + LMG<BR>(C) AsR or SLR + LMG<BR> <BR> <P><BR>

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Y I Patel » 08 Aug 2001 03:27

Bishwa<P>One reason I can think of is that India expects to attack, and thus needs to concentarate the armour. Pak, on the other hand, intends to defend, so Pak armour is dispersed more thinly into regiments. Having more regiments = greater spatial coverage for a given number of tanks.<p>[This message has been edited by Vikram Vyas (edited 07-08-2001).]

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Peeyoosh » 08 Aug 2001 09:46

Any idea how old the T-59s are? If they are over 25 years old (mid 70s vintage, which is likely) those tanks are in no shape for extended ops.<P>Interesing to read the upgraded planned. From T-59s new gun, new FCS, new communications would be priority and ERA to add. <P>All this would add weight too, so perhaps an new engine as well? We are talking of a 700 K to a 1 million $ package here. For 2000 tanks that is a US$ 1.4 to 2 billion investment.<P>Huge investment in armour.<P>Peeyoosh

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby rama » 08 Aug 2001 09:57

The Al Zarrar upgrade does include a 700 HP engine too. The upgrade $ is on top of the AL Khalids that they plan to manufacture to replace the M47/48's, which would also be in the few hundreds.<P> Interesting that India has concluded that upgrading 1000 T-72's was not affordable.

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Peeyoosh » 08 Aug 2001 19:39

If true this is a huge investment in armour.<P>In 5/6 years the military balance would be pretty bad for the Pakis with the Su 30s fully inducted, the arty upgrades over and the Mig 21s upgraded to the 93 standard.<P>I wonder if we are likely to see some action before that happens - how likely is it that Pakistna would be able to sustain 2300- 2600 modern tanks given that the cost of maintaining a tank in battleworthy condition can be 15% to 25% of its cost each year depending on extent of usage and practice?<P>Peeyoosh

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Re: Has Pakistan raised a third armoured division?

Postby Rudra » 08 Aug 2001 19:59

A/c have to be mated to right kind of <BR>AT munitions to be effective. Only the brits<BR>are trying out brimstone on the tornado. <BR>nobody else has a ATGM on fighter a/c.<P>Anyway just read of a new Russian AT subminition package. cansister has 15 bomblets each weighing 10kg and can be<BR>released upto 15kft height. Each bomblet has<BR>a dual IR and MMW seeker. IR seeker is smart<BR>enough to avoid burning debris. When the<BR>appropriate height is reached, a 2kg copper<BR>slug is sped upto 2 km/sec (this is more<BR>than APFSDS round velocity) aimed at the<BR>top of the tank. The system is said to be<BR>able to engage moving targets who are pulling 60kmph.<P>As for the Pakis, maybe they just keep it<BR>in heavy mothballs and practise once or twice a year. The Israelis too apparently<BR>keep their older tanks in heavy grease that<BR>can be readied in short order. Tank simulators can provide very realistic training. every western MBT has simulators.<BR>


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