There are three possible mode's for LM line in India, as far as I can see, and even GOI seems to be confused on this one:
- LM India - 100% owned subsidiary
- LM_Indian pvt co - JV (26:74 or 49:51)
- 100% Indian pvt co owing Assembly line.
There are two modes of production, that I can think of (Assuming MII is compulsory)
- All F16 manufactured in India:
LM orders all parts from suppliers and meanwhile sets up assembly plant in India. Usually it takes 36 months for jet to roll out. Thi mode will push it to 4-5yrs (after the contract is signed. They would need land, all clearances, time to contruct new plant, hire/train people). Then as well production ramp up will take atleast 1 more yr.
- 2sq flyaway, rest in india
: LM will manufacture about 2 sq in US retaining some tooling there while rest of the tooling being transferred in India, and plant being set up and production starts here. rest 4 sq will be assembled in India.
This 36month timeline is standard when existing supply chain gonna supply parts. If LM decides to shift some of its suppliers to those suppliers will take their own sweet time to get started with production. For small small parts it doesn't matter but if things like aircraft structural components are to be shifted here that will add some significant time to the lead time.
Another point - lets say GOI is doing all this for numbers as primary concern for whatever future threat perception it sees in near future. Can GOI pay for 100 F16 blk70 jet coming is very quick time?? Last I checked 15% advanced payment for Rafale pushed some deals to next financial year already.
A crude price estimate considering following points:
- UAE deal for F16 blk60 order which came at approximately $200Mil per piece (quick google)
- assuming it came with all weapons package, some kind of PBL for few years etc,
- considering that UAE would not have needed to pay for setting up new bases for them as they already have infra for F16, but we will have to pay
- and considering cost of shifting line/suppliers to India,
- adding some margin for inflation
- considering blk70 is better than blk60 and so will be costlier. And we will have to bankroll dev cost at least partially, if not fully.
- Some IAF specific changes will be there for sure.
I would say the cost per F16 blk70 in the whole package would touch $300Mil easily >> $30Billion for 100jets. How fast do you think GOI can pay $30Billion for F16?? Where this money will come from?? Considering we already signed $50B deals already and some more is in pipeline.
Cosmo_R wrote: The question is the ability to deliver 200 units by 2021. My POV is simply that if we can get 200 LCAS to replace the retiring fighters by 2020/2021, I'm all for it above the F-16.
I seriously do not understand your insistence on criteria that "if and only if 200 LCA can be built by 2020/21". Would you place the same criteria for F16 that "if and only if we LM can manufacture 100 (not even 200, just 100 that MMRCS req is) F16 jets in India by 2020/21". Why this unfair demand from LCA only??