Marten wrote:NRao, why would Boeing hand over whatever Snecma will not?
NRao wrote:To me it seems like a problem with the GoI.
It is not with the GoI, but with the bureaucracy. Manohar Parrikar himself has stated that procuring anything for the nation is an excruciatingly long process. Tender & Processes take forever in India. The Babus have mastered the art of RFI, RFP, RFQ, Endless Negotiation and so on. How these babus operate in their personal lives makes me wonder. But I digress. Beyond the scope of this discussion.
NRao wrote:All this is the fault of the French. I bet they are still expecting Ambani to pull a Rafale line at $30 billion in India. For 50 planes that too.
Don't blame the French or the Germans or the Italians or the Polish or the Americans. We are to blame for this mess. Air Marshals sitting in ivory towers are to blame. Successive Governments who don't know the difference between a WWII Spitfire and a Eurofighter are to blame. And the eternal babudom is equally to blame. All three have contributed to this mess.
Marten wrote:I hope this tender is dragged through babudom until it's bare bedraggled corpse looks like the MMRCA circus.
That will happen. You can be sure of that. The babudom train is never late.
Y I Patel wrote:The articles in Sputnik and DefenseNews don't quite gel with the tweets and Livefist article on page 45 of this thread, where MP appears to say that the MIIF1 contract will be signed this year (2017).
MP is once again talking when he should not be saying anything. The sheer complexity of this deal - with Deep ToT being a main point - will ensure that negotiations will continue for a few years....at least. Look, you cannot have ToT of any kind with a SP not being vetted by Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General Electric, the US Congress and other players. If they read what the SP states, they are going to push back. And they are going to WIN. Because they know the IAF is in a tight spot.
way a deal is being signed in 2017 is if India agrees to screwdrivergiri. Which means, transfer of the production line (which is what many on this forum have being saying from page one of this thread) from the US to India will happen in 2018/2019. A good chunk of 2017 will be spent on screwdrivergiri negotiation.
By the way, there is no clear cut winner who is going to screwdriviergiri these planes in the first place. Is it going to be HAL? A private player? If so, which one? Reliance? If India puts her foot down - and babudom will ensure that the GoI makes the point very clear to the US - rest assured, we are looking at negotiations dragging for 2 -3 years.
Once the player has been identified, then training of how to do production will begin. No Indian entitly will NOT, I repeat WILL NOT, be able to replicate what Lockheed Martin was doing in the US in the first or even the second year of production. This is not your garden variety HPT-32 propellor trainer that is being built. This is a complex piece of machinery of which how assembly is to be performed has to not just be taught, but MASTERED to match the production levels of the US plants. So now we are in 2021/22.
If the player is going to be HAL, good luck. I refrain from commenting further. If it going to be a private player, you need an educated workforce. You cannot take your local mali (gardener) or kakoos (South Indian word for toilet) cleaner and tell him to start doing assembly. The employee has to know what he is assembling in the first place. This means training people who possess a level of education that is commensurate to what is needed to get done. Where is the private player going to find this educated workforce?
BTW, screwdrivergiri means critical components such as;
- APG-80 AESA radar will arrive in SKD/CKD kits. Plug & Play. That's It. You can forget source codes regardless of what they report in the media.
- GE engines. same story. SKD/CKD kits. Plug & Play again. That's It. You can kiss engine tech goodbye. Not coming. As Marten said, why would General Electric hand over what Snecma will not?
The countrywide F-Solah supply line in the US will fly in the rest. Other non-US components of the F-Solah (like the Martin Baker ejection seat for example) will fly in as well from the UK. HAL or a private player will then assemble everything together like a giant LEGO puzzle. Mindless, Brain Dumbing, Assembly. Ever worked on a car assembly line? That is what will happen. Same story with Gripen E, Rafale F3, F-18 Rhino, etc. You will learn nothing, other than how to screw
We have been producing (production) Su-30MKIs since the early 2000s.
Can India make an aircraft like the Su-30MKI from scratch?
Lockheed Martin, Dassault, Saab, Boeing (or whoever else) are playing us for suckers. And we are falling for it...hook, line and sinker. Or so I read in the media.