Pulwama Attack

Kartik
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Kartik » 19 Feb 2019 01:05

Vamsi31 wrote:We already called back our ambassador from Pakistan. Btw i cannot open bharatkeveer.gov.in from USA is there any other way I can contribute to our martyrs? Any help will be greatly appreciated.


try https://bharatkeveer.gov.in

It should work.

ramana
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ramana » 19 Feb 2019 01:07

ArjunPandit wrote:sometimes i think this is reverse thucidyde trap by pakis or thucidydes by the chinese.
Pakis because if they dont act now, things will get progressively more difficult to move India. better let the steam off now than the pressure cooker blasting with a 40 sqnd airforce full of Su30, Tejas, Mig and Rafales that can hold PLAAF. Chinese because their growth is stalling and they need an external diversion to show reassert them as a top dog



My devious mind thinks like this.
The Pakis got a go ahead to hit India after the last day of 16th Lok Sabha. *
On paper the govt is lame duck waiting for the elections.
This is same situation as in 1999 during Kargil that ABV govt was toppled with No Confidence Motion.(NCM engineered by Su Swamy with Jaylalitha. She is dead and he is a saint now).

Pakis being clever engineered the hit on Iran to draw them into the fight.
This will solidify the Middle East on Pakistan side as there is widespread fear of Iran over there.
So the trap is how will Modi govt retaliate without involving the Iranis?

I think we see the Iranis retaliating in kind in Baluchistan by targeting the Pak Army convoys.
This decouples the major fight which is coming.

We see a lot of minions egging on Modi Govt and raising the expectation as they are working to masters puppet strings.
US goal is to make India commit to Afghanistan to save their chestnuts from the fire.

Indian goal is to diminish Pakistan first.
Geopolitics demands that..

Mackinder (World Island, Warm Water ports) and Curzon buffer state theory (Romanes Frontiers lecture) has collapsed.

Will go to Afghanistan on own time table.


* Don't ask me who gave go ahead? I am fuzzy but think Pakistan would not have acted on own. And China is too involved in fighting off Orange. So by elimination whoever wants India in Afghanistan without paying the price.
IOW this still retains the World island idea by keeping out Russia from Afghanistan. We saw what happens if Afghanistan falls to ISIS type dregs. Putin will intervene as its his near abroad and is closer than Syria.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby KJo » 19 Feb 2019 01:08

vinod wrote:^^ agree...

They do this to enter heaven. Deny them that.. no one will come forward to be an islamist.

Why can't we say that we don't know who they are.. may be they are Pakistani's. Ask Pakistanis to confirm.. they will of course refuse. So, we will dispose of the body after few days of rotting in a incinerator.

If its a local islamists, we say no one has been reported missing. If the parents or relatives come, ask them to pay for dna test, cost of storing the body etc... wait for few days to rot, increase the cost... and then hand over, if necessary. Otherwise, incinerate.

As per their custom, to go to heaven, you have to be buried same day! Deny them that!


Exactly. Why can't we use their own religion against them? This is their most glaring weakness.

I say, just pour pig fat on them and burn up the bodies.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby sudeepj » 19 Feb 2019 01:15

Shameek wrote:Another BS article by the BBC. Too many Indians read and believe these and then repeat those lines. If the gora world is attacked then the attackers are terrorists since they said so. If its us then always 'alleged' since our word has no value of course. Its sickening to read the way these reports are drafted. The media after all should not provide its own opinions until it serves their interests to do so.

Link

Nine people, including four Indian soldiers and a policeman, have been killed in Indian-administered Kashmir during a gun battle, police say.
The clash occurred in Pulwama, where more than 40 Indian paramilitary police were killed in a bombing last week.
That attack, the worst in decades, has fuelled tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.
A civilian and three alleged militants were also among those killed in Monday's confrontation.
Police say the three suspected militants who were killed are members of Pakistan-based group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), which said it was responsible for Thursday's suicide bombing.


The first thing I did after this attack was to finally pony up for the Swarajya Mag subscription. Running media operations is not cheap.. You must pay for it, but Indians want everything free and not pay for anything. Unsubscribe to the garbage peddled by the usual suspects and pay up for content that you want and like to read.

For me, that was Swarajya Magazine, Op India and Organizer. Beyond these three, you dont need anything. If you have some control on what magazines come to your office, make the change there too. If you cant get rid of India Today, Outlook, at least add Swarajya Magazine to what you get.

Similarly, get rid of all NDTV channels from your cable packages. Get rid of Arun Poories trash.. One less subscriber will mean far more than whining about it.

You know how Tehelka was started? A hundred or so Lutyens elite go together and donated Rs100,000 to 1 crore each to start up a magazine that would hew to their agendas. This list included Arun Poorie, Ram Jethmalani, Shanti Bhushan.. all the usual suspects. At least those assholes put their money where their mouth is. We on the other hand fulminate and forget.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ArjunPandit » 19 Feb 2019 01:31

^^ramana sir, i too had similar thoughts. This is beyond paki tactically brilliance comprehension. But I and wondering if it is SD or whotus or the deep state. I put my money on the devious ways of WH rather than SD that is too pro china.
Personally speaking Indian presence is becoming more and more essential in afghanistan
1. to decouple ChiPak
2. destroy pak
3. sanitize and stabilize the region.
Perhaps retake of PoK at critical places serve this purpose well. I know this is difficult so we will have to find our Ardennes to bypass the maginot line. We will be vulnerable, take huge casualties, but that would tighten the screws visibly on the menace called pakistan and end the bogey of CPEC. This is a huge leap and I dont think we have an appetite for it. But personally speaking this is what needs to be done to end napakistan in an accelerated fashion. It's a game 2:1 badminton or is it not.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Supratik » 19 Feb 2019 01:39

I think it is different. Trump may not like India but he dislikes Pak. The go ahead was against Iran but Pak did buy one get one free hoping they will get approval in exchange of Taliban talks. Plus to muddy up Modi election. Tactical brilliance version 100. The key to this theory is silence after Bolton statement. The only noise that is coming is from the left wing media which is anti-Trump.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby SBajwa » 19 Feb 2019 01:40

Mollick.R wrote:It's time that India takes a firmly defined policy of not handing over the bodies of dead piglets to their kins.
What purpose does it serves other then glorified Funeral procession dead terrorists ???

Even if it is must to hand over the bodies ensure few IEDMubaraks on Funeral procession every now and then. Enough of this velvet glove touch.



Like i have been saying burn down the bodies with pig fat. This will take the incentive of 72-houris away and thus no fidayeenis.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby chetak » 19 Feb 2019 01:53

sudeepj wrote:
Shameek wrote:Another BS article by the BBC. Too many Indians read and believe these and then repeat those lines. If the gora world is attacked then the attackers are terrorists since they said so. If its us then always 'alleged' since our word has no value of course. Its sickening to read the way these reports are drafted. The media after all should not provide its own opinions until it serves their interests to do so.

Link



The first thing I did after this attack was to finally pony up for the Swarajya Mag subscription. Running media operations is not cheap.. You must pay for it, but Indians want everything free and not pay for anything. Unsubscribe to the garbage peddled by the usual suspects and pay up for content that you want and like to read.

For me, that was Swarajya Magazine, Op India and Organizer. Beyond these three, you dont need anything. If you have some control on what magazines come to your office, make the change there too. If you cant get rid of India Today, Outlook, at least add Swarajya Magazine to what you get.

Similarly, get rid of all NDTV channels from your cable packages. Get rid of Arun Poories trash.. One less subscriber will mean far more than whining about it.

You know how Tehelka was started? A hundred or so Lutyens elite go together and donated Rs100,000 to 1 crore each to start up a magazine that would hew to their agendas. This list included Arun Poorie, Ram Jethmalani, Shanti Bhushan.. all the usual suspects. At least those assholes put their money where their mouth is. We on the other hand fulminate and forget.


don't forget to drop also the new channel by burka butt

ramana
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ramana » 19 Feb 2019 01:53

Rudradev or ShyamD, I would like both of you to do a comparison on the Iran and Pulwama attacks.
What was similar in both? Target, attackers, type of attack etc.
What was different in both?
What else do you have to say?

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby viveks » 19 Feb 2019 01:56

So many people lost in just a matter of 15-20 days..it is just very sad...Mods ...thanks for letting me back in. I am one of you trying to hold certain degree of free speech here...its hard to do that when you have your rifles pointed at my account.

I will refrain from making a pointed discussions. Let us hope this cycle of loosing lives that started with the beginning of this year ends. Let the perpetrators be bought to their own justice. Let them be buried in their own nafrat ki aag. The cost of cleansing this plague of terrorism is very immense. The GOI has taken some good actions. I had some thoughts about what pukis would do now...they somehow have put themselves in this water...and always seem to find a way to come up and breath the signs of terrorism and hatred towards us. This is just awful and needs to meet its end.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby SaiK » 19 Feb 2019 02:02

if anyone of you think pakis didn't act on their own, then it is only a fishbone! but neutralizing target can't be done militarily. moi onree thinks!

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Sridhar K » 19 Feb 2019 02:05

Just returned from a trip to Kashmir. The terrorist attack on CRPF, the subsequent loss of more soldiers last night, the KMs double speak, their anti Indian and pro paki views, their sense of entitlement, their preference to Pakistan, the plight of the CRPF and RR men in and around Srinagar, has filled my heart with Rage and heaviness that whatever the bliss I got of fulfilling my life long visit to Sankaracharya temple in Srinagar did not passify
Went to Gulmarg, Srinagar, Pampore, Hazratbal, Ganderbal and couldn't do Pehalgam, Anantnag, Martand Sun temple. Regretted badly that was spending money to these thankless beggars. Only saving grace was helping a CRPF Javan with first aid at a check post who had injured his fingers while checking his vehicles.

Will post more tomorrow as my emotions are still running high.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Karan M » 19 Feb 2019 02:25

Sridhar K would really appreciate your first hand views, regarding the security situation on the ground.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby vasu raya » 19 Feb 2019 02:31


vasu raya
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby vasu raya » 19 Feb 2019 02:33


ks_sachin
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ks_sachin » 19 Feb 2019 02:43

Karan M wrote:Sridhar K would really appreciate your first hand views, regarding the security situation on the ground.

You really want to know sir?
Some interesting facts but all point to our propensity to shoot ourselves in the foot....
Last edited by ks_sachin on 19 Feb 2019 02:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Shameek » 19 Feb 2019 02:44

The article answers some of the questions people were raising here.

- Pigs fired upon an army patrol and sneaked into a residential area.
- Police chased them and the encounter started.
- Pigs were able to move between houses making it quite complex especially if civilians were present.
- Mortars were used on the houses.
- Stone pelting again. :evil: At the best of times this is a distraction. In an encounter with bullets flying it is deadly. This lot has to go!

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ks_sachin » 19 Feb 2019 02:55

Go where and how?

viveks
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby viveks » 19 Feb 2019 02:56

DELETED

Karan M
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Karan M » 19 Feb 2019 03:03



Guys like this Sahni bring in their political bias against the current GOI to every topic and think their cowardice and pessimism should apply to all.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Karan M » 19 Feb 2019 03:03

ks_sachin wrote:Go where and how?


Shooting at the protesters apart, perhaps more effort into crowd control devices like pepper bomb variants etc.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby anishns » 19 Feb 2019 03:06

I think among these pelters are also the so called "mukhbirs" or informers. Who need to mingle with other stone pelters in order to prove their loyalty to the mob. I guess after exchanging some crisp gandhis with the armed forces, quickly turncoat. Perhaps that might also be a reason why we don't go after them hammer & tongs

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Ashokk » 19 Feb 2019 03:13

Indian diplomats ignore handshake by Pak officials at ICJ
Ahead of the hearing this morning, Pakistan's Attorney General Anwar Mansoor Khan reached out to Deepak Mittal, joint secretary, the ministry of external affairs, to shake hand but he responded with a namaste.
Khan then extended his hand to Venu Rajamony, the Indian ambassador to the Netherlands, who was sitting next to Mittal. Rajamony too greeted him with a namaste.
Image
The Pakistani official then moved to Harish Salve, the former attorney general who is representing India and Jadhav at the ICJ, who shook hands. :evil:

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby UlanBatori » 19 Feb 2019 03:19

US goal is to make India commit to Afghanistan to save their chestnuts from the fire.
Indian goal is to diminish Pakistan first.
Geopolitics demands that..

ramanaji, for once it may be good to recognize that there is a convergence of US and Indian interests.
1) If DT allows Afghanistan to fall into Taliban hands again (looks 90% certain) there is no way to avoid looking like a idiot after his criticism of BO
2) Pakistan is no more the Frontlyin' Al-Lie of the 1990s. Despite heroic efforts by Paki agents such as RobinR, credibility of Pak in US is essentially 0 or negative. PLUS, Pakistan is now near-total slave of China. Any US investment in Pak is doomed.
3) So US is caught in a classic "NeelaKantha" dilemna: Can't spit out A'stan because then Taliban will capture it. Can't stay because it is untenable and losses are mounting. Can't kick the Pakis and leave because.... Putin is looming.
The ONLY thing worse for DT than handing A'stan to Taliban, is handing it over to Russia. OK, Putin is smart enough not to put Russian BOG in A'Stan again, but they have enough other assets in the region, and enough cultural ties.

Enter India.

When we hear that we immediately think India putting thousands of BOG to man the peaks and ridges and get shot and bombed in 2s and 3s for the next 20 years. But there is another way: a really Indian way.

Which is the UBCN hypothesis: India sets up a Natural Afghan Solution. Afghanistan for Afghans. Southern/ SW Afghanistan is Shia - allied with Iran.
North is allied with Tajiks, Uzbeks etc (also shia?) like Dostum. East/SE is allied with Pakhtoonistan, not Pakistan.

Indo-Iranian alliance takes SW and southern borders and seals them (locals are friendly with this). Pushes fracture of Balochistan. Pakhtoonistan pushes Pakjabis back across Indus. In the north, Dostum types push out Taliban influences (no love lost there..)

China-Russia are essentially dost these days.

So this is the only way that US can pull out. The price to be paid is the end of Pakistan - and more or less peace with Iran. As we discussed, even Israel will be OK with having Iraniian forces diverted from Syria to this mission.

KSA gets mad - but I think KSA regime has plenty of problems to worry about in near future.

It is up to the Indian Govt to hammer this home as the deal under which India takes over the general role of keeping Afghanistan from going rogue again. In this scenario a figurehead Afghan Govt can survive in Kabul because none of the 3 powerful entities actually wants the monkey on their back. They want control of their own tribal lands, and realize that trying to usurp others is a road to nowhere. India, Russia and Iran do not actually want any land out of Afghanistan.

Will China agree to dismantling of Pakistan? This is a tougher problem. I am not sure what would sweeten the deal enough for them to buy in - OTOH once the collapse starts, I doubt that they want Chinese BOG in Pakistan either. Maybe some understanding on access to Gwadar for civilian export/import and servicing an occasional warship. IOW I would HOPE that all countries (except TSP) realize the futility of trying to be Sultans of Afghanistan.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby UlanBatori » 19 Feb 2019 03:22

I wish these guys wouldn't do such an obsequious Namaste to a *********** terrorist. Why not stand with both middle fingers raised? Or do a Namaste with all other fingers folded?

Or.. one has to ask UBCN for such sophisticated diplomatic finesse - stick one's hand into the back of one's belt, deep down, take it out, smell it and THEN immediately shake hands with the terrorist.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ks_sachin » 19 Feb 2019 03:25

anishns wrote:I think among these pelters are also the so called "mukhbirs" or informers. Who need to mingle with other stone pelters in order to prove their loyalty to the mob. I guess after exchanging some crisp gandhis with the armed forces, quickly turncoat. Perhaps that might also be a reason why we don't go after them hammer & tongs

IF we go after them our liberal intelligentsia cries foul.
IF we adhere to SOPs then a poor jawan is put in prison.
The local politicals dream of being Prime Minister of an Independent Kashmir.
The political class in Delhi have been like "Nero".

Truly a depressing state of affairs.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Shameek » 19 Feb 2019 03:37

Karan M wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:Go where and how?


Shooting at the protesters apart, perhaps more effort into crowd control devices like pepper bomb variants etc.


I had heard of grenades made using the Ghost Pepper (Bhut Jolokia) as an example. These people are hampering a police/army investigation, allowing pigs to escape, hampering casualty evacuation and causing our soldiers to lose their lives. I am just amazed at the restraint our army is able/forced to display. I cannot think of one other place in the world where these people would not be shot.
Imagine your family being in a car accident and people throwing stones at you while you try to get medical help and save them.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Bart S » 19 Feb 2019 03:45

Karan M wrote:


Guys like this Sahni bring in their political bias against the current GOI to every topic and think their cowardice and pessimism should apply to all.


I don't agree with his defeatist mentality, but he is right in saying that there needs to be wider long term strategy rather than an ad-hoc reactive one.

Probably the strategy he has in mind though is the MSA/track-pee and 'kashmir is a political problem, not a military one' type nonsense, which is a different matter.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ks_sachin » 19 Feb 2019 03:46

Agreed Shameek.

What are we not doing it after all the please read below
"In 2009, scientists at India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) announced plans to use the peppers in hand grenades, as a nonlethal ways to control rioters by pepper sprays or in self-defence. The DRDO said bhut jolokia-based aerosol sprays could be used as a "safety device", and "civil variants" of chili grenades could be used to control and disperse mobs.Chili grenades made from Bhut jolokia were successfully used by the Indian Army in August 2015 to flush out a terrorist hiding in a cave."

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Rudradev » 19 Feb 2019 04:38

Gentle Rakshaks,
Here is my humble attempt to tie and connect various data points (or “dots”) into a big picture of what may lie behind the Pulwama attack. If this is not wildly inaccurate, it may provide a template to springboard from when making predictions for the future.
So let’s take a look at the compulsions and imperatives of various actors involved, leading up to the time of the attacks.

GOTUS at this time has three relevant imperatives:

1) Get out of Afghanistan in a face-saving manner. This would not only be a huge political win for DT domestically, but it would free up resources for action elsewhere, such as Iran or Venezuela, where DT sees the potential to reap political rewards from intervention.

To achieve this, they’ve been talking to the Taliban in Doha, even in the absence of the Afghan Govt (let alone Indian govt). Obviously, they need Pakistan’s full cooperation to achieve even a temporary face-saving retreat that doesn’t completely go to hell before 2020. That’s why Trump Sarkar brought Robin Raphel out from forced retirement/disgrace and put her in the driver’s seat of the talks along with Chris Kolenda (a former military officer) and Zalmay Khalilzad (a former GWB administration envoy).

Robin Raphel is clearly there as a confidence-building measure to ensure that all representations made by the US will take Pakistan’s interests into account, allowing Pakistan to set the Taliban’s agenda in the talks, and ensuring that India comes nowhere near Afghanistan.

2) In coordination with Israel, KSA, and UAE: set the stage for military action against Iran. If you notice, DT wants to withdraw from Syria and Afghanistan. Yet, on his visit to Iraq in December, he said he has “no plans” to withdraw US troops from there at all! My theory is that these troops will lead (or at least backstop) the “Western Front” of a US-coalition led attack on Iran.

However an “Eastern Front” is needed as well, with lots of manpower in the form of non-state peaceful yahoos as well as conventional and possibly even nuclear forces. Pakistan is the ideal candidate to supply this, whether directly or via a future Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.

Now the Pakis have been very skittish about getting involved in the KSA/UAE vs. Iran hostilities; for example, they refused to send ground forces to Yemen. KSA/UAE however are very keen to have Pakistan throw in its lot with the Sunni Bloc as openly and quickly as possible. As a source of strategically-positioned cannon fodder Pakistan is hard to beat.

The US also is pushing Pakistan to enter into increasingly open hostilities with Iran because this would thwart the geopolitical goals of the Chinese and Russians, who see Iran as a critical member of their bloc. Any China-Pakistan tension that ensued as a result would weaken the China-Pakistan subsidiary alliance on CPEC, OBOR, and all the rest of it.

So to achieve imperatives #1 and #2, I believe GOTUS/KSA/UAE proposed the following to Pakistan: We will give you the IMF loan you desperately need (check). We will get you Saudi oil and money (check). We will get you off the FATF list (not happened yet, but might). AND, we will let you Pakis become masters of Afghanistan after we withdraw (the strategic depth is yours for the keeping, as long as you don’t let Afghan-based jihadis target Western interests). BUT in exchange, you have to join our coalition against Iran.

Of course, the Pakis would have salivated at such a proposal; but being what they are, they’d also see this potential return to the good books of the West as their one and only chance to secure the one and only thing they care about: the Kore Issue!

However, I believe GOTUS was not willing to go there. The reason for that is Imperative #3 of the GOTUS today:

3) Contain China. It has finally sunk in at all levels of the GOTUS establishment that the Chinese are now their principal geopolitical threat. As I write this, the Trade War is failing; Xi-Trump talks have fallen by the wayside and the Chinese are showing no inclination to give in to US demands on tech transfer, patent theft, reciprocity of market openness, etc. Secondly, the US withdrawal from the INF treaty is ALSO a China-specific measure (the ability to deploy intermediate-range missiles will allow America to project threats towards the Chinese coast while keeping their USN assets clear of Chinese ground-based missiles.)

For this all-important purpose of containing China, GOTUS has concluded that India (either individually as part of the “quad”) is an indispensable partner. They have also realized that the Indian reluctance to go all-in as the “linebacker” of the Indo-Pacific front against China has a lot to do with entrenched institutional distrust of American motives in New Delhi. Well-justified distrust, one might add.

The fact that the US has played both sides, more often against us than not, especially with regard to Pakistan has not been forgotten by South Bloc. To get over this distrust and secure our support against China, the US KNOWS it cannot be seen to be taking Pakistan’s side by winking/nodding at LeT/JeM or kicking up the Kore Issue in international circles. Whatever they may feel internally, they need India and cannot afford to alienate her… so the old tenets of DC’s “South Asia Policy” have become (in many circles) taboo.

So what happened? The US made its pitch to Pakistan (along with KSA and UAE). Join our coalition against Iran, and you can have Afghanistan. Pakis of course wanted more… what about the Kore Issue? And the US (probably KSA and UAE too) told the Pakis: “no dice”. We are saving you from bankruptcy and giving you strategic depth on a platter, nothing more for you.

THIS is what led to the display of quintessential Paki tactical brilliance we witnessed on Feb 14th. They wanted to show that they were willing to be US-Sunni-coalition proxies against Iran, no problem; so they sent out the Jundullah yahoos to bomb an IRGC convoy. But they also decided to be very clever and drag India (and Kore Issue) into the same picture by force… hence, the Pulwama attack on the very same day. They are telling the US “you cannot have one if we don’t have the other”.

And of course the tactically brilliant Pakis calculated that the GOTUS’ desire to bring them aboard the anti-Iran coalition (and secure their cooperation for an Afghan withdrawal) would OUTWEIGH the GOTUS’ compulsion to contain China. Surely massa would save them from an a$$-kicking in response to Pulwama, no? If they were going to get help on Afghanistan and Iran, surely massa would lean on India not to retaliate…

Except, the very next day, massa made it clear from multiple angles (State Dept, White House, NSA) that it has no intention of saving Pakistan’s skin. That was when the browning of shalwars began in earnest. :mrgreen:

*****

Now I do want to address a further possibility as well. It may be that there exists a faction (let’s call them Hinduphobic Culinary Brass, or HCB) within the US establishment that is NOT on board with GOTUS’ program. They may include people from the Culinary Institute who are still under the influence of people like Milt Bearden and Mike Scheuer; people from the State Dept who are still aligned to the thinking of Robin Raphel; people from think-tanks who still entertain the Kissingerian view of China; and people from the Evangelical Christian front who really, really want to see Hindutva defanged and Modi defeated, so that our souls can be harvested without opposition. It is not unthinkable that the HCB exists in US policymaking circles. We don’t know for now how far up its tentacles reach.

Remember the original State Dept response to the Pulwama attack did not mention Pakistan… it was Pompeo who revised it to condemn Pakistan explicitly. Seems like someone behind the scenes wanted to keep playing equal-equal but got overruled. Someone from the HCB faction.

More sinister is what appeared in the “US Intelligence Threat Assessment Report 2019”: an explicit warning that "Parliamentary elections in India increase the possibility of communal violence if BJP stresses nationalist themes.” The guilty party for any communal violence has been pre-determined and blamed in advance.

The statement is remarkable for two reasons. One, as far as I know, the report does not express similar apprehensions about politically-linked violence confined within the borders of nearly any other country, other than the usual roster of US enemies like Venezuela and Iran. Two, it not only plays directly to the narrative of the Congress/Mahathugbandhan but has been actually cited by Shashi Tharoor to embarrass the Indian government.

That report was presented to the US Senate by

1) Dan Coats, Director of National Intelligence: previously a Republican Senator from Indiana for two terms. Indiana in the US is a hotbed of Evangelical crusader-ism; one of India’s longest-standing adversaries in the US Congress, the consistently pro-Pakistan and pro-Khalistan Dan Burton, is another Republican from this state.
2) CIA Director Gina Haspel, who had JUST returned from India (!) at the time of the report’s presentation. What was she doing in India? How did her meetings with GOI go? We know that after Pulwama, NSA Doval’s main point of contact in the GOTUS has been US NSA John Bolton (who did not participate in writing the Threat Assessment). Not Ms. Haspel. Anything to read into there?
3) Christopher Wray, director of the FBI.
4) Robert Ashley, director of the Defence Intelligence Agency.

There may not be anything at all to this. Indeed, there may be no organized HCB in existence (and if there is, its influence may not rise anywhere near as high as the officials who actually presented the Threat Assessment).

However, from what I’ve been seeing in desi news outlets over the last day or so, it looks like there is a very real danger of communal incidents being provoked in the aftermath of the Pulwama attack. There are reports that people (who appear to be) from a particular community have been engaging in deliberately provocative behavior by targeting the spontaneous nationalistic demonstrations that arose after Pulwama in many Indian towns and cities. The intent may well be to take advantage of heightened sentiments and provoke another Godhra/Ahmedabad-type cycle of violence.

If the Threat Assessment ends up being prophetic… would that just be happenstance? Or would that be because they said the quiet part out loud?

Here are a few snippets from the report relating to Indian Subcontinent. Read them again in context of the Pulwama attack. We can’t be sure who knew the attack was about to happen.

SOUTH ASIA

The challenges facing South Asian states will grow in 2019 because of Afghanistan’s presidential election in mid-July and the Taliban’s large-scale attacks, Pakistan’s recalcitrance in dealing with militant groups, and Indian elections that risk communal violence. [Really? Those are all equally valid and significant threats to the security and interests of the United States? Only if this report was being prepared with inputs from the INC/ISI narrative... such as what Rahul Gandhi told the US Ambassador... could the third stand mention in the same rank of "threats" as the first two.]

AfghanistanStalemate

We assess that neither the Afghan Government nor the Taliban will be able to gain a strategic military advantage in the Afghan war in the coming year if coalition support remains at current levels. Afghan forces generally have secured cities and other government strongholds, but the Taliban has increased large-scale attacks, and Afghan security suffers from a large number of forces being tied down in defensive missions, mobility shortfalls, and a lack of reliable forces to hold recaptured territory.

Pakistan Recalcitrance

Militant groups supported by Pakistan will continue to take advantage of their safe haven in Pakistan to plan and conduct attacks in India and Afghanistan, including against US interests. Islamabad’s narrow approach to counterterrorism cooperation—using some groups as policy tools and confronting only the militant groups that directly threaten Pakistan—almost certainly will frustrate US counterterrorism efforts against the Taliban. Mild-mannered wording there... "frustrate"... for a degree of backstabbing that has actually caused large numbers of US military casualties and completely thwarted the geopolitical goals of America's war in Afghanistan.

Indian Elections and Ethnic Tensions

Parliamentary elections in India increase the possibility of communal violence if Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stresses Hindu nationalist themes. BJP policies during Modi’s first term have deepened communal tensions in some BJP-governed states, and Hindu nationalist state leaders might view a Hindu-nationalist campaign as a signal to incite low-level violence to animate their supporters.

Increasing communal clashes could alienate Indian Muslims and allow Islamist terrorist groups in India to expand their influence.


India-Pakistan Tensions

We judge that cross-border terrorism, firing across the Line of Control (LoC), divisive national elections in India, and Islamabad’s perception of its position with the United States relative to India will contribute to strained India-Pakistan relations at least through May 2019, the deadline for the Indian election, and probably beyond.

Despite limited confidence-building measures—such as both countries recommitting in May 2018 to the 2003 cease-fire along the disputed Kashmir border—continued terrorist attacks and cross-border firing in Kashmir have hardened each country’s position and reduced their political will to seek rapprochement. Political maneuvering resulting from the Indian national elections probably will further constrain near-term opportunities for improving ties.


Look at the above two headings and associated text carefully. Under "India-Pakistan Tensions" there is a fair degree of equal-equal, where "reduced political will to seek rapprochement" is presented as a "both-sides" phenomenon despite acknowledging the causes as 400% of Paki origin: cross-border firing, BAT terrorism, etc.

By contrast, under"Indian Elections" the narrative has already been set in stone: ANY violence that happens within India's borders will be the doing of the BJP and Narendra Modi. No chance that any other internal actors (Congress, Mahathugbandhan) or external actors (ISI) might have any role or culpability in such violence.

Not only that, "political maneuvering from Indian elections" has ALREADY been pre-ordained as something that will be responsible for making it difficult for Pakistan to "improve ties"... even though it's not happened yet.

Not only THAT... but forgive me, have you EVER heard an American or Western source use the term "Communal Violence"?
The terms "Communalism" and "Communal Violence" are never, ever used that way in the English language in any other country. If you say to a Brit or an Australian or an American that "Communalism" is a problem... they will have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. It is ONLY the English-language news media in India, copy-pasting from the English-language talking points of the INC propaganda offices, that have EVER used the term "Communalism" to mean "Religion-Based Identity Politics" (the term you WOULD expect a CIA report to use if at all).

Only in India and Pakistan does "Communal" mean what WE understand it to mean. Everywhere else it just means "belonging to or relating to the whole community, like a 'communal' water source or school".

So who the hell actually wrote this report?


India-China Tensions
We expect relations between India and China to remain tense, despite efforts on both sides to manage tensions since the border standoff in 2017, elevating the risk of unintentional escalation.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held an informal summit in April 2018 to defuse tension and normalize relations, but they did not address border issues. Misperceptions of military movements or construction might result in tensions escalating into armed conflict.

Take-home message here is that India may not be a reliable member of a China-containment Quad... because Modi and Xi are having talks on the side and making deals we don't know about.


Also, from elsewhere in the report:
The continued growth and development of Pakistan and India’s nuclear weapons programs increase the risk of a nuclear security incident in South Asia,and the new types of nuclear weapons will introduce new risks for escalation dynamics and security in the region.
The Pakis roundly extol what new types of nuclear weapons/delivery systems... tactical nukes, Nasr, etc. they are working on. India, as far as I know, does not. But the equal-equal is in full flow.

Pakistan continues to develop new types of nuclear weapons, including short-range tactical weapons, sea-based cruise missiles, air-launched cruise missiles, and longer range ballistic missiles.

India this year conducted its first deployment of a nuclear-powered submarine armed with nuclear missiles.

And in that sentence may lie the only genuine threat assessment they feel.


Parkalam.
Last edited by Rudradev on 19 Feb 2019 04:50, edited 1 time in total.

Primus
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Primus » 19 Feb 2019 04:50

pankajs wrote:For those who can't access http://bharatkeveer.gov.in/

https://twitter.com/BharatKeVeer/status ... 1265500160
Bharat Ke Veer Verified account @BharatKeVeer

The State Bank of India @TheOfficialSBI has created a UPI for #BharatKeVeer initiative. You can now help the families of India’s bravehearts by contributing through UPI using VPA- bharatkeveer@sbi


I was able to access BKV site just now, couldn't for the past 24 hrs. It now shows a message "All Martyr's families have received the maximum limit individually. Please contribute to Bharat Ke Veer Corpus Fund. This fund will also be distributed among Martyrs families." Just yesterday there were dozens of martyrs who were short of their 15 lakh maximum. As posted earlier, 40+ crore was donated within the last 3 days.

This is what needs to be done. If a solider fighting for the nation knows the nation will take care of his family if he is no more, it gives him the motivation and the courage to continue fighting, it is not just a job anymore then.

From Kargil to now, there is no doubt in my mind that Indians do feel the pain when their Bravehearts lay down their lives. In this sad time, it is worth remembering Shri Makhan Lal Chaturvedi's timeless ode to the Amar Jawan:

पुष्प की अभिलाषा

चाह नहीं मैं सुरबाला के
गहनों में गूँथा जाऊँ,
चाह नहीं, प्रेमी-माला में
बिंध प्यारी को ललचाऊँ,
चाह नहीं, सम्राटों के शव
पर हे हरि, डाला जाऊँ,
चाह नहीं, देवों के सिर पर
चढ़ूँ भाग्य पर इठलाऊँ।
मुझे तोड़ लेना वनमाली!
उस पथ पर देना तुम फेंक,
मातृभूमि पर शीश चढ़ाने
जिस पथ जावें वीर अनेक

Karan M
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Karan M » 19 Feb 2019 04:57

Bart S wrote:
Karan M wrote:
Guys like this Sahni bring in their political bias against the current GOI to every topic and think their cowardice and pessimism should apply to all.


I don't agree with his defeatist mentality, but he is right in saying that there needs to be wider long term strategy rather than an ad-hoc reactive one.

Probably the strategy he has in mind though is the MSA/track-pee and 'kashmir is a political problem, not a military one' type nonsense, which is a different matter.


Complete defeatist mentality and second, no clue of what present dispensation has done to stiffen up the forces capabilities either. Ask him about the Su-30 serviceability issue, or the fact that significant amounts of equipment is under induction already. Dismisses all talk of a military option outright. With guys like this, is it any wonder Pakistan thinks it has us by the short and curlies?

A lot of people have automatically assumed Modi/Doval/Army/AF/IN etc are all incompetent and have no plan in place and we need to chest beat and wail throughout. Kanchan Gupta is the latest in ORF.
I don't think that defeatism is warranted yet.

Karan M
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Karan M » 19 Feb 2019 05:01

Shameek wrote:
Karan M wrote:
Shooting at the protesters apart, perhaps more effort into crowd control devices like pepper bomb variants etc.


I had heard of grenades made using the Ghost Pepper (Bhut Jolokia) as an example. These people are hampering a police/army investigation, allowing pigs to escape, hampering casualty evacuation and causing our soldiers to lose their lives. I am just amazed at the restraint our army is able/forced to display. I cannot think of one other place in the world where these people would not be shot.
Imagine your family being in a car accident and people throwing stones at you while you try to get medical help and save them.


I think the restraint is driven by SOPS from senior IA officers and the political establishment both, who didn't want to hand the Pakis/separatists an easy recruiting tool by shooting away and leading to mass funerals and mass civil unrest in turn. Judging by Gen Hasnains article he is concerned about the Valley remaining ok for logistics conveys to pass through and without completely falling to insurgency. Relatively harsh measures like pellet guns didnt work either.
At the way things are going, despite all this, things may have already reached a tipping point.

ks_sachin
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ks_sachin » 19 Feb 2019 05:07

Primus wrote:


I was able to access BKV site just now, couldn't for the past 24 hrs. It now shows a message "All Martyr's families have received the maximum limit individually. Please contribute to Bharat Ke Veer Corpus Fund. This fund will also be distributed among Martyrs families." Just yesterday there were dozens of martyrs who were short of their 15 lakh maximum. As posted earlier, 40+ crore was donated within the last 3 days.

This is what needs to be done. If a solider fighting for the nation knows the nation will take care of his family if he is no more, it gives him the motivation and the courage to continue fighting, it is not just a job anymore then.

From Kargil to now, there is no doubt in my mind that Indians do feel the pain when their Bravehearts lay down their lives. In this sad time, it is worth remembering Shri Makhan Lal Chaturvedi's timeless ode to the Amar Jawan:

पुष्प की अभिलाषा

चाह नहीं मैं सुरबाला के
गहनों में गूँथा जाऊँ,
चाह नहीं, प्रेमी-माला में
बिंध प्यारी को ललचाऊँ,
चाह नहीं, सम्राटों के शव
पर हे हरि, डाला जाऊँ,
चाह नहीं, देवों के सिर पर
चढ़ूँ भाग्य पर इठलाऊँ।
मुझे तोड़ लेना वनमाली!
उस पथ पर देना तुम फेंक,
मातृभूमि पर शीश चढ़ाने
जिस पथ जावें वीर अनेक


Primus it is easy to look after them when they are dead. It is a lot more difficult to look after them and support them when they are serving in these hot beds.
SOP states that if the three layer of the perimeter is breached then it is shoot first and ask questions later in the valley.
So a soldier follows SOP and ends up in prison.
I sometime feel that all this money is an easy way out than doing the right thing when it is really required!!!

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby viveks » 19 Feb 2019 05:10

I was thinking...why not send the un-employed & un-educated young kashmiri youth who get easily prayed upon by the so called hatred driven people to the "russian siberia" area for some years of banvas...maybe spend a good 10-15 yrs away from home. They as it is not knowing what to do with their lives and prey upon our solders. Realize how life is harsh while working emphatically to improve their lives.

The indian government can easily talk to the russian...take care of their needs there.

Mere ko toh chaudin dino ka banwas toh mil hi gaya tha meri bakwas sunke yaha... :shock:

ks_sachin
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ks_sachin » 19 Feb 2019 05:12

Karan M wrote:
Shameek wrote:
I had heard of grenades made using the Ghost Pepper (Bhut Jolokia) as an example. These people are hampering a police/army investigation, allowing pigs to escape, hampering casualty evacuation and causing our soldiers to lose their lives. I am just amazed at the restraint our army is able/forced to display. I cannot think of one other place in the world where these people would not be shot.
Imagine your family being in a car accident and people throwing stones at you while you try to get medical help and save them.


I think the restraint is driven by SOPS from senior IA officers and the political establishment both, who didn't want to hand the Pakis/separatists an easy recruiting tool by shooting away and leading to mass funerals and mass civil unrest in turn. Judging by Gen Hasnains article he is concerned about the Valley remaining ok for logistics conveys to pass through and without completely falling to insurgency. Relatively harsh measures like pellet guns didnt work either.
At the way things are going, despite all this, things may have already reached a tipping point.


"Tipping point"
Karan that is what I hears from the field marshall as well.

What options does this leave us?
Limited options is the opinion.
Military option is difficult...
Plus elections etc...

ks_sachin
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ks_sachin » 19 Feb 2019 05:17

viveks wrote:
Mere ko toh chaudin dino ka banwas toh mil hi gaya tha meri bakwas sunke yaha... :shock:


Please translate...I am south indian...

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Shankas » 19 Feb 2019 05:27

bharotshontan wrote:
yensoy wrote:Why should we expel when we can saturate? Repeal 370, remove subsidies and populate the place with hardworking folks from the rest of the country. Learn from the masters of this art, the Chinese.

Unless and until 370 is repealed, all the rest of the drama is not going to lead to an enduring "steady state" solution.


I agree with 370 repeal, but this is not the full solution or even 50% of the way to the full solution. Maybe in the ballpark of 20%.

How many Hindus are willing to go settle and build from bottom up in a rabid Islamist hole like Kashmir valley? We do palayan in the middle of Hindu majority India like Kairana to even neighborhoods in Mumbai to Kolkata.


I beg to defer.
1) Allocate free plots to people from badlands of UP, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab. They know how to take care of themselves and muzzle those that need to be. As a bonus, it will depopulate these states.
2) We can do a MANREGA project to build and settle 500 self-sustaining model villages, each with a population of 10,000+. If UP can build 14 million toilets in 17 months...
3) Offer 0% corporate tax for construction companies and 0% tax for all industries setting up shop there.
4) BJP should encourage/nudge SME's and MME's in the states they rule to expand there. No need for large scale industries, that will happen later and on its own.
5) Majority of Kashmiri youths will get govt postings only in North East and the Southern States. Same goes for college admissions.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby UlanBatori » 19 Feb 2019 05:32

Rudradevji, at the risk of getting banned, let me point to the difference between foreign policy perceptions of GOI vs. GOR (Russia). The UBCN pov given above, hopes that NaMo will take a leaf out of Putinji's chess book and toss the South Block "LKK" whinebook.

India can very well DEMAND that the US get on board the Indian Subcontinent Regional Coalition a.k.a. CAT (Coalition Against Terrorists) or PAT (People Against Terrorists) and go ahead with the Road To Quetta plan in concert with Iranian fauj. In one shot that will put paid to all schemes of this or that by RobinR/Bolton, that are all destined for nothing but decades of more pointless bloodshed.

This is India's moment in history. The tide is turning: Will India get on the surfboard or stand in the rising waters and whine?

Note that I do not in any way disagree with your factual presentation. But it is depressing. I am saying that the reality can be changed by India, and now. Indian reality must be Made In India, not in foggy or soggy bottoms.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Bhaskar_T » 19 Feb 2019 05:33

Can the Title of this thread be changed to 'Pulwama Terrorist Attack by Jaish E Mohammed'. Helps in world audience to read Bharat's perspective when they Google stuff.


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