https://factly.in/how-is-the-security-d ... ions-made/
Which was the last election that was hijacked per you? What forces was deployed during that election and what will be deployed during LS elections?
CAPFs are deployed at various booths during LS elections. From the link, you can see that their functions mostly revolve around monitoring activities within the booth itself (stopping malpractice, rigging etc.) Not dealing with the spectre of VBIEDs racing towards crowds of people lined up outside the booth. Moreover there are only limited numbers of CAPF to deploy; they depend very much on facilitation by the hosting State Govts to get where they need to go (and when); and the State Govts know in advance how the strength of CAPF personnel at various booths in the state will be distributed.All useful things for someone planning LS election violence (not booth capturing, but mass-casualty terrorist violence) in cahoots with a State Govt
I will address the rest of your post later.https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/d ... hbfTN.html
Deployment of central forces in Bengal to be monitored by ECI observers: CEC
“We met representatives from different political parties, most of whom requested for effective use of central forces to ensure free and fair polls. We have decided that deployment and movement of central forces in Bengal before and during Lok Sabha polls will be totally monitored by the ECI-appointed police observers or nodal observers, all of whom would be out of Bengal,” Arora said.
On Thursday leaders of opposition parties told ECI officials that central forces on poll duty are often seen away from the scene of action, even sipping tea at roadside stalls when trouble takes place somewhere else. The control of these forces are usually vested with the superintendents of police of the districts.
“Different political parties also insisted that these forces should not just conduct route march and area domination just on the main roads and should not deployed only in polling booths. They should ensure that there is no intimidation of voters or supporters of any political party. We have assured them that central forces will conduct route march and area domination exercise even in the remotest corners of the state,” Arora added.
Note from the above snippet.
1. The control of these forces are usually vested with the superintendents of police of the districts in the last elections.
2. These forces where put on duty "away from the scene of action, even sipping tea at roadside stalls when trouble takes place somewhere else"
During the last panchayat elections, the central forces where deployed under the local police, under local observers and they were deployed away from the scene of action probably under orders of the state government.
1. monitored by the ECI-appointed police observers or nodal observers, all of whom would be out of Bengal.
2. central forces will conduct route march and area domination exercise even in the remotest corners of the state
During the lok sabha, the central police will be deployed not just at the boot level but also conduct route march and area domination. They will be also be under outside observers who will directly report to the ECI.
So there, all of your concerns are addressed for the upcoming lok sabha elections.
This last bit about "mass-casualty terrorist
violence" when coupled with you original thesis that such an event would cause re-elections accompanied by "Narratives of how Modi Sarkar's "intolerance" and "hindutva" set the stage for the violence will be circulated non stop on social media and paid conventional media." is an worth exploring in light of the Indian experience so far i.e Gujarat 2002, etc.
Lets assume multiple "mass-casualty terrorist violence" has happened during elections followed shortly [less than 6 months] by a re-election
1. *Terrorist* events have a particular imagery amongst the masses of India and will cause polarization along religious lines.
2. No matter what the narrative or spin is imparted by the media, it is "commonly held" view even by the so called "liberal/progressive" that such polarization usually benefits the BJP. There are certain realities of India at the grassroots that cannot be wished away by narrative in SM or MSM.
3. Massive Narrative building via social media and MSM will only increase the polarization and that too will benefit the BJP goes the conventional wisdom.
4. Folks in the mainstream "liberal/progressive" media have noted how effortlessly Modi is able spin adverse publicity in his favor e.g Maut ka Saudagar vs Gujarati Asmita.
Granted, if the re-election was held only for the "liberal/progressive" of India and WaPo/NYT/Guardian jurnos, Modi stand no chance in a re-election BUT he stand no chance now. OTOH, in case of a terrorist event, the resultant polarization is likely to benefit Modi/BJP no matter what the "liberal/progressive" media spins.
Even when I think the polarization as a result of a terrorist event(s) benefits BJP/Modi I hope for a calm and uneventful Lok Sabha elections.