Shared some of my own thoughts in a blog and on Twitter this morningBlog LinkTwitter Link 1Twitter Link 2
Firstly, and strictly a personal opinion, this is partly a manifestation of the planned US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Logistics & efforts from that end can now safely and easily be diverted to the 1000 year war that Bhutto promised before he was hanged.
Coming to timing, it couldn’t have been better, or worse, for that matter, depending on the glasses you wear while observing it – General elections on the horizon, Governor’s rule in Kashmir .. and more importantly, the Saudi Crown Prince about to land up in the sub continent. What sort of messaging might be going on, I’ll leave it for you to decipher.
With the surgical strikes, including the recent bollywood movie, behind them, there seems to be absolutely no way that this govt won’t react. And given the magnitude of the attack, a similar surgical strike which the Pakis can easily deny, won’t cut it. In any case, this is something they must already be guarding against. Hence, I would personally rule out another surgical strike in which own soldiers will go across this time.
Just as the attack, the response too needs to be ‘spectacular’, and one that is equally visible to the whole world. Herein lies the difference between the #PulwamaAttack and the Uri Attack – visuals of the attack itself.
Like I said earlier, this time a Surgical Strike won’t cut it. The response simply HAS to be big, and more importantly, visible to all. In fact a highly visible response needn’t be that big since a very visible slap on the face of the Paki Fauj too will suffice.
That bombast is what has worked so far, but ONLY because no one has called them out on that.
I am not saying this will precipitate another war. Far from it. All I am saying is that the sheer audacity and timing of it all means that there will be something coming their way soon enough.
Oh, btw, forget about the Kartarpur Corridor It will remain yet another election issue against the govt, just as I mentioned some months ago in THIS blog post.