Mort Walker wrote:
............ with a combined yield of over 100KT.
All of that, delivered westward, will produce fallout traveling eastward. Those are just the facts of life.
Exactly what are the prevailing winds like in this area?
Could this flow be disrupted by the thermal impulse, and if so, how would that spread the fallout? Could a technique be applied, using timing and yield, to 'wick' the fallout in a specific direction, say toward another country to the east of the TSP? (Hmmmmmmmm...........) Soil and surface types are all factors, as are the presence of groundwater, topography, height of blast, yield, blast effects 'bandwidth optimization', etc. etc.
None of this, is anything to be cavalier about; nor is it possible to properly model things like this in a text-based, public facing forum.I question the utility and wisdom of this thread.
A better thread would discuss how to calm the masses so that a general election can pass without some dimwit trying to force the timing of military action, not knowing nearly anything necessary to act with wisdom, while being serious about it.
I'm not referring to sheer revenge, but rather a more fundamental solution to the TSP.
TO WIT: The things contemplated in this thread, are weighty, and must not be considered lightly; and so considering these things deeply, in public, runs the inherent risk of informing the enemy. There is no two ways about that. What if someone writes something here, and it's read 'over there' and they're like, "Oh, geez, hadn't thought of that, better bury it or put a wire here or a tunnel there, etc." Net result: IA action is blunted because BRF tipped-off the enemy on a public-facing forum where (almost) everyone goes by a pseudonym.
Recognize: The timing of the Pulwama attack was calculated, coldly, with the intention of forcing the GoI and IA to rush, or be judged harshly by the electorate when what is needed is cold, calculated action, the timing of which must not be constrained or in any way dictated by political or other frivolous factors.
In so far as the Pulwama attack was done to show the Modi government in a bad light; that must be made to fail on principle alone -- by clearly making that case to the Indian public, the Indian voters. For reasons I don't care to expound upon here; the desired outcome contemplated by this thread is a "crumbling" such that paknukes can be siezed in toto. If this all can be pulled-off without the use of nuclear weapons by any party; this will abound to the great credit and advantage of India, and everyone who has stoked this fire for decades now will be publicly pleased and congratulatory, though secretly disappointed. Singha's comment that in order to join the P2 by 2050, a nuclear exchange must be avoided if at all possible (because of the physical reality of ground-burst munitions targeting hardened bunkers, the fallout is unacceptable -- not just politically, but biologically). A much more fruitful discussion thread would contemplate how to break-up the TSP, in much the same way that the UK and USA and China have contemplated the break-up of Desh -- then make it happen. [For reals, yo'. Breaking-up the TSP will be much, much easier than anyone here thinks, if only it's done with patience. Sindh and especially Balochistan are both ripe to go. Why not host some exiled Balochi parliamentarians? Why not grant them a budget? How about some training and equipping? Do it like the Khans would do it; set up a "School of the Freedom Fighters" and imbue them with political training on the importance of human rights and fresh batteries in the field.]
REMINDER: The AQ Khan network didn't work in isolation, and had much help and many sponsors along the way, including the US of A, China, Saudi Arabia and probably some other gulf kingdoms. The Dutch, the Germans and the Swiss, were all on the verge of arresting AQ Khan and putting an end to his photochar bijjnijj; but were prevented from doing so by Unkil Khan himself. That's the gist of this particular proliferation story. Judge their actions and reactions on Pulwama, in this light onleee.
IMO discussions of "Strategy and Tactics", here, is a mistake.
When Pulwama is avenged, everyone will know it. There is no doubt, this moment is coming, so everyone should just be patient.
JMT as a simple ABCD (Canadian, actually).