Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Raveen » 02 Mar 2019 03:08

CRamS wrote:Guys the pathetic NYT puts out some crap co-authored by an India which claims that 'many Indians are angry with ModiJi because his military moves have back-fired'. Any opinion polls taken post IAF strike? Just curious.


Yes, and the overwhelming majority was in favor and I believe more than 40% wanted more strikes - either India Today or Toilet did it a couple of days back

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ArjunPandit » 02 Mar 2019 03:14

^^well that bugger was dogfighting with us, lucky to have just managed to have his parked plane shredded. He was always against Indians and used to say that India lost 1971.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby souravB » 02 Mar 2019 03:17

This is goldmine. Please share it as much as possible.
Baki FM all but agrees they are in cohorts with JeM. :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:


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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Y. Kanan » 02 Mar 2019 03:17

It may be wise to just be realistic and admit we lack the military superiority to punish Pakistan without incurring heavy losses on ourselves. We don't have the standoff strike capability and we can't bomb them either; our aircraft cannot operate over Paki airspace safely; they are simply too vulnerable to fighters and SAM's. We simply cannot achieve air superiority and conduct a true bombing campaign without losing a lot of aircraft and pilots. On the ground, we cannot invade because we'll get chewed up too much; any victory would be hollow. We dominate the sea (on the surface), but cannot blockade Pakistan because we lack effective ASW and cannot protect our ships from their numerous Agosta submarines, which are quite capable.

In the real world, here are some things we actually CAN do:

-Increase severity of artillery\MRLS bombardment of any Paki targets close to the border. They will do the same, however, and thanks to US supplied fire-finder radars, the Pakis are pretty good at counter-battery fire so I'm not sure how effective this strategy will be. We also lack good targeting intel whereas Pakis have an army of ground observers everywhere there is a significant muslim population in our country. But still, we have more arty & MRLS overall and could surely inflict some pain this way, plus we have firefinder radars, too.

-Conduct lots of bomb-tossing strikes from our own airspace. Get really good at them. We have lots of aircraft that can do this, and unguided bombs are cheap. PAF will do the same, and when they do, we can let loose on them with S300's and with AWACS support, our fighters can join the party and take potshots at them with R-77's. It doesn't have to be all that accurate or effective; basically we just keep a steady tempo of bombs, SAM's and AAMs flying across the border. I know it goes both ways, but we have greater resources.

-Use up our cruise missile inventory. Start taking out targets juicy enough to warrant expensive Klub and Brahmos missiles. Launch from ground, air and sea. Keep changing it up and keeping them guessing. Why keep a bunch of these missiles in reserve? They just age out and have to be replaced & refurbished anyway; might as well just use them. Besides, we'd still have our nuclear-tipped Agnis to deter China and the US from jumping in. I just see no point keeping an inventory of cruise missiles on hand; just shoot them all off at Pakistan instead.

-Aerial harassment. Continue (and intensify) our aggressive, 24-hr CAP and surveillance of Paki airspace. Shoot at any PAF aircraft that get too close to the border and stay poised to engage any sortie they may attempt.

-Maintain diplomatic pressure and continue demanding Pakistan eliminate JEM and hand over the usual terror suspects. Nothing new here, but now it will be clear that military harrassment will continue as long as Pakistani perfidy continues.

Of course, Pakistan won't budge at first. They'll be defiant and will hit us back, probably with some success. But every strike they succeed in pulling off will only harden our position, solidify public opinion in India, and give us plenty of justification to keep hurting them. We can maintain an aggressive military posture much longer than they can. And if the PA is dumb enough to actually invade India, they'll be falling right into our trap and we'll crush them badly. The more they hit us, the more Paki POW's and dead bodies we'll see on TV.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 02 Mar 2019 03:27

Y. Kanan wrote:It may be wise to just be realistic and admit we lack the military superiority to punish Pakistan without incurring heavy losses on ourselves. We don't have the standoff strike capability and we can't bomb them either; our aircraft cannot operate over Paki airspace safely; they are simply too vulnerable to fighters and SAM's. We simply cannot achieve air superiority and conduct a true bombing campaign without losing a lot of aircraft and pilots.


This is laughably absurd.. What is the Brahmos, SPICE/Crystal Maze/PopEye/The KAB series/Paveway/JDAMs ...?

Most of the PAF would not be able to get off the ground if the IAF wants it to be so. If they are doing chakkar sorties over Isloo and Pindi today, it is at the indulgence of the Western Air Command.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ArjunPandit » 02 Mar 2019 03:28

what we'r eseeing is a new form of warfare. I think what Y Kannan is saying above will be true, except for the part that we dont have capability. My sense is we dont want to use all the cards in the first round and being a civilizational culture we dont want to burn like a madman. So the pot will be gradually heated. Treat it as a dipstick test.

Ramana guru is there a precedence of such stand off warfare?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby khan » 02 Mar 2019 03:32

Y. Kanan wrote:It may be wise to just be realistic and admit we lack the military superiority to punish Pakistan without incurring heavy losses on ourselves. We don't have the standoff strike capability and we can't bomb them either; our aircraft cannot operate over Paki airspace safely; they are simply too vulnerable to fighters and SAM's. We simply cannot achieve air superiority and conduct a true bombing campaign without losing a lot of aircraft and pilots. On the ground, we cannot invade because we'll get chewed up too much; any victory would be hollow. We dominate the sea (on the surface), but cannot blockade Pakistan because we lack effective ASW and cannot protect our ships from their numerous Agosta submarines, which are quite capable.

In the real world, here are some things we actually CAN do:

-Increase severity of artillery\MRLS bombardment of any Paki targets close to the border. They will do the same, however, and thanks to US supplied fire-finder radars, the Pakis are pretty good at counter-battery fire so I'm not sure how effective this strategy will be. We also lack good targeting intel whereas Pakis have an army of ground observers everywhere there is a significant muslim population in our country. But still, we have more arty & MRLS overall and could surely inflict some pain this way, plus we have firefinder radars, too.

-Conduct lots of bomb-tossing strikes from our own airspace. Get really good at them. We have lots of aircraft that can do this, and unguided bombs are cheap. PAF will do the same, and when they do, we can let loose on them with S300's and with AWACS support, our fighters can join the party and take potshots at them with R-77's. It doesn't have to be all that accurate or effective; basically we just keep a steady tempo of bombs, SAM's and AAMs flying across the border. I know it goes both ways, but we have greater resources.

-Use up our cruise missile inventory. Start taking out targets juicy enough to warrant expensive Klub and Brahmos missiles. Launch from ground, air and sea. Keep changing it up and keeping them guessing. Why keep a bunch of these missiles in reserve? They just age out and have to be replaced & refurbished anyway; might as well just use them. Besides, we'd still have our nuclear-tipped Agnis to deter China and the US from jumping in. I just see no point keeping an inventory of cruise missiles on hand; just shoot them all off at Pakistan instead.

-Aerial harassment. Continue (and intensify) our aggressive, 24-hr CAP and surveillance of Paki airspace. Shoot at any PAF aircraft that get too close to the border and stay poised to engage any sortie they may attempt.

-Maintain diplomatic pressure and continue demanding Pakistan eliminate JEM and hand over the usual terror suspects. Nothing new here, but now it will be clear that military harrassment will continue as long as Pakistani perfidy continues.

Of course, Pakistan won't budge at first. They'll be defiant and will hit us back, probably with some success. But every strike they succeed in pulling off will only harden our position, solidify public opinion in India, and give us plenty of justification to keep hurting them. We can maintain an aggressive military posture much longer than they can. And if the PA is dumb enough to actually invade India, they'll be falling right into our trap and we'll crush them badly. The more they hit us, the more Paki POW's and dead bodies we'll see on TV.


I disagree with the premise. India-Pakistan is no USA-Afghanistan, but the asymmetry is considerable - atleast in the air.

Can India eliminate their air force with zero casualties - clearly no. But can India eliminate heir air force with the loss of say 25 SU-30’s? I think they can do it with a loss of less than 25 SU-30’s and with 200+ of these birds, the loss is acceptable and can be replenished in a year or so.

I don’t know enough about submarine warfare to comment intelligently and I agree with you that a land invasion will be hard.

Their air force is their weak spot.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby sanjaykumar » 02 Mar 2019 03:39

The Paks are going to lodge a complaint against India's eco-terrorism for destroying trees. I think Indian legal position should be that according to Pakistani citizens at least ten ambulances were present. Their medical personnel weren't adequately trained in stabilisation and resuscitation. But does not such concern for trees make Pakis Hindus?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby VKumar » 02 Mar 2019 03:46

Congress tweeted a video purportedly of wingco's wife asking BJP not to make political capital. But it was immediately repudiated by many posters on twitter that the woman videographed was not his wife at all!

This is the extent to which Congress has fallen!

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Raveen » 02 Mar 2019 03:49

VKumar wrote:Congress tweeted a video purportedly of wingco's wife asking BJP not to make political capital. But it was immediately repudiated by many posters on twitter that the woman videographed was not his wife at all!

This is the extent to which Congress has fallen!


Scum can't fall further - its already scum
and scum is scum, Italian or otherwise

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 02 Mar 2019 03:50

To compare strictly the two forces by budget allocations, from 2009 to 2019, India has spent around $40 billion per year in 2009 to more than $50 billion in 2019. In comparison, Pakistan has not spent more than $10 billion per year! We have outspent them by nearly $30 billion every year! And it shows in the relative force comparisons.

The recent videos of tanks deploying near Sialkot showed T55 clones driving on own power over civilian roads. Indian tanks go first class on tank transporters. Pakistani infantry was mobilized in civilian buses, the kind you will see in C grade Indian cities deployed as commuter buses. Indian infantry was mobilized in first class 4x4 vehicles. We outnumber and outclass them in every area, including standoff weapons systems as far as I can see. Ofcourse, professionals will have their own appreciation.. But to claim that an armed force that has out spent an adversary by $200- $250 billion over the course of a decade has nothing to show for it is laughably absurd.

I think, PAF will not be able to take off the ground if it comes to a full shooting match. The small number that does take off will be shot down by an overwhelming fighter sweep.

https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/m ... xpenditure
https://tradingeconomics.com/india/military-expenditure

* Note, these expenditures include defense salaries & pensions.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Ravi Karumanchiri » 02 Mar 2019 03:50

ramana wrote:
Ravi, Take it easy. you are going legal with bigger terrorists.,
And King of Jordan! Every war since 1965 Jordan supplied US weapons to Pakistan and got away.
Even these F-16s could be from Jordan stock.
US knew fully well the F-16s originally supplied in mid 80s were to drop nukes on India. They sold them with out the bomb racks and told the Pakistan to get them from Europe or Turkey.
And supplied these 500 AIM 120Cs and JDAM for fighting Taliban flying goats.
soon we will know #Pulwama go ahead came from low level SD diplomutts just like Alice whats her name to Saddam.
When it blew up they went to Trump to issue damage control.
Soon expect some retirements in Dupleecity.
Am sure US guys went to do BDA at Balakot strike and realized deep doo doo and hence the hasty closure and KSA 3T to Pakis.

Pay attention to UBN and decode it.



^^^^^^^
Respectfully,

I fail to see any reason to harbor any sense of humor whatsoever, at any instance of shooting-off missiles toward commercial airliners.

Must I add "In broad daylight" or "Without declaration of hostilities" or some other reinforcement of this observation?

I do believe the GoI and IAF have a strict duty and obligation to call proper attention to this incident of hazard to air traffic; lest it happen again. (Insurance companies should take note; and adjust their rates accordingly, no doubt. Their underwriters will demand it.) I believe the correct authorities are 'over here' in Montreal.............. IATA..... https://www.iata.org/Pages/default.aspx

This shouldn't take a lawyer. Just a dossier with some facts and photos, and telemetry, etc.


[Also and furthermore, henceforth, IAF strike packages should be rapidly followed-up with a specially designed cluster-type munition with no explosive yields, but just a load of spiked-arrows, with a pine sapling already growing out the top end. If anyone asks, 'It was a reforestry project'. :rotfl: ]

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby partha » 02 Mar 2019 03:58

I was surprised how we made them close their airspace w/o much effort. Maybe they closed it to bring international attention to the ongoing crisis but its hurting them nevertheless. So much can be done at a low cost just by creating a perception of threat.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby sanjaykumar » 02 Mar 2019 04:01

The Paks may have done some reforestry of their own in the days the area was cordoned off. I believe it still is. A 2000 Ib bomb may make a 200 X 15 foot crater depending on soil conditions. A little earth moving and turf will make it look as good as new. They had several days of cloud cover to do the deed, or so they think. The Indian Risat series of radar image satellites generate crystal clear images . The beam is steerable with tilt capability and of possibly sub 1 m resolution.

The Indian claim IIRC was that the brother in law was killed, they also gave some other names of illustrious Pakistanis (I can't find the link). Pakistan needs to produce them and all will be clear.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby suryag » 02 Mar 2019 04:03

I am not sure why the evidence of damage is needed to support our claims. It is already established and confirmed by Pakis that we did cross into their airspace and bombed the place. If the target was missed so be it, but the important thing is India has crossed the artificial redlines and has shown spine to retaliate in whatever way it wants when the pakis do something crazy

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby SaiK » 02 Mar 2019 04:09

It ain't about evidences, it is all about continuous escalations until the terrorists are handed over, and Pakis are cleared up! It is a war!

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Ravi Karumanchiri » 02 Mar 2019 04:11

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
No, it's just that now that India has gone "pre-emptive" on terror camps, they're coming to terms with the fact they're a target-rich environment. As a result, they're very weary of what's overhead. They've got to re-group and contemplate. They feel exposed, and don't know how deep that exposure goes.

For instance, I was quite struck by the photos of the Balakot camp that were taken from on the ground, there, prior to the strikes. This was proof that R&AW had already penetrated the camp with a camera, and successfully exfiltrated those photos out. No one has remarked upon this; or at least I haven't noticed it -- but those photos spoke volumes for R&AW's capability.

Remember, there was one photo which showed three national flags crudely painted on the walkway: British, American and Israeli. Has the press in these places, got a hold of that detail?

One more quick point I'd like to offer here and now: The GoI and IAF clearly proclaimed from the start, that the "Balakot raids" (striking those other two places also) were "pre-emptive" and undertaken in justifiable self-defense (for something that was going to happen in the future).

In the next breath the Indian media was harping about "Revenge" (for something that happened in the past).

This is wrong and the incorrect 'tack', both morally and from a PR perspective.

Once we get into revenge, we loose our grip on moral authority.
Pre-emption, on the other hand (so far as it's justified and proportional, etc.); has a much tighter grip on moral certitude, than revenge ever could have. At worst, the IA and IAF and IN can pursue a measure of retribution; but revenge is an empty game, and IMO beneath the dignity of a moral military.

Pre-emption, on the other hand, is just cold-blooded business. Nothing to inflame our passions about; and frankly, that it is necessary, should be regretted, not celebrated.

JMT
Last edited by Ravi Karumanchiri on 02 Mar 2019 04:27, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby sanjaykumar » 02 Mar 2019 04:12

The deep state Pakistanis have staked a lot of their credibility among their subjects on this position of an ineffectual strike. India has made very different claims. Dead bodies will surely cause a problem for the Pak military in its legitimacy and right to loot.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 02 Mar 2019 04:12

Ravi read this tweet about Jordan perfidy

https://twitter.com/Ethirajans/status/1 ... 05536?s=19

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby chetak » 02 Mar 2019 04:14

Circulating in some closed whatsapp groups.

The full facts will anyway be known when Wg Cdr Abinandan provides his operational report and summary.


What has happened Yesterday (As per one of my IAF friends )

Minute by Minute details

9:52 AM – Indian Netra and Northern Air command, detected ten F 16 took off from 3 Airbases from Pakistan. They came in 3 groups and merged in attack formation near POK.

9:54: AM – India scrambled 2 Mig21 Bisons and 4 Sukhoi MKi to intercept 10 PAK F16

9.58 AM – India sounded alert to PAF fighters that, you are about to encroach Indian air space. Please evade.

9.59 AM – India sounded alert # 2, to PAF with IFAC protocols and they didn’t respond

10:00 AM - PAF violates Indian airspace. With Swarm merge attack formation (which is tactical in nature)

10:01 AM - Nine F 16 forced to deviate path and within 1 KM of airspace they returned to POK side after the heavy surface to air ground artillery and valiant fight from our Sukhoi and MIGs.

10:02 AM - One PAK F16 went deep inside Indian territory probably 3 KMs to destroy oil storage at an Army Brigade HQ

10:03 AM – One IAF Sukhoi and one Mig 21 Bison (Wg Cdr Abhinandan Varthaman) continued engaging the F16 in a dog fight maneuver called “Defensive split”. Mig 21 was in the front, then F16 and then a Sukhoi. Due to firing from Sukhoi, F16 fled the scene using a dog fight maneuver called “Wingover”.

10:04 AM – Sukhoi hovered around oil field guarding it and Mig 21 Bison (Wg Cdr Abhinandan) chased F16 out of Indian territory. While chasing he engaged F16 in a lock-in position for his onboard R-73 air to air missile to be deployed.
Here you have to applaud the courage of Abhinandan. He could have returned to base. But if he returns to base then the missile lock in would have been disengaged (due to out of radar coverage) and he will not be able to shoot F16 down. So he decided to chase him down to POK and shoot him down.

10:08 AM – He engaged his R 73 missile that hit the F 16 and downed him

10:08 AM – After shooting him down he performed a highly dangerous maneuver called “High-g barrel roll”. He had to do this because he had been in the vicinity of PAK surface to air artillery and SAM. While doing so he has to vertically climb at high speed and reverse its direction towards India. While doing so his old outdated MIG 21 Bison’s engine thrust had a problem and he became almost non-maneuverable for few secs. And during that time either a SAM or air artillery hit his plane.

So people questioning his valor and skill should understand what has happened. The blame solely lies in Congress and especially AK Anthony of not upgrading or replacing the aging jets. Just upgrading radar and avionics doesn’t give you the edge.

It requires huge piloting skills, ability and courage to drown an F-16 with a Mig-21.

So Salute to Abhinandan

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby JTull » 02 Mar 2019 04:17

I'm beginning to see the end game of this Operation with my soothsayer hat on. We will drag this tensions and heat at the border including at sea, for as long as possible. Pakistani economy will be finished. It'll crumble on its own. Meanwhile I see huge Make In India orders for ammunition, LCA, 155mm guns, Pinaka, Akash, and tons more. Our aircraft upgrades and pilot training are selling themselves. Diplomatic influence is visible to everyone. Huge lessons for China too. Pulwama may have woken up the Elephant.
Last edited by JTull on 02 Mar 2019 04:19, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Mar 2019 04:17

Rishi_Tri wrote:[
Though world is stranger than fiction, people are crazier than rabid dogs but very unlikely this happened. NaPakis speak chaste Punjabi Ordoo. Pilot would have explained himself and accent would have proven evidence enough. The scenario that I see is - Some sort of mercenary or Jordanian or blackwater pilot flying and NaPakis killed him because they didn't want world to find out.


UBCN posts deep analysis and we have to put up with Experts citing "Unlikeliness" because they speak "Chaste Punjabi Ordoo"? What's YOUR evidence for "Some sort of mercenary or Jordanian or blackwater pilot flying"? Those would not have turned tail and fled like PAF herrows do.

Listen, baccha dear, good analysis is not for tots. WE don't just sit around scratching our arses and saying "this is LIKELY" etc. You need to READ ALL POSTS and have the ability to connect facts from many places to do any useful analysis. We do. Like the one where it said they made the Urdu challenge to the pilots. The ones who responded with HAPPINESS and spoke BACK IN CHASE URDU were mercilessly beaten to death. The one who stood up like a brave man, they captured and handed over to their uniformed counterparts as a POW.

Because PA HATES PAF, who sat on their behinds while over ONE THOUSAND JEHADIS were blown to bits by Indians, with NOT A SINGLE response by PAF. If you still cannot see this, there is only one explanation... and our analysis shows that plain as day on our screens.
وقت کیا ہوا ہے؟

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby rgosain » 02 Mar 2019 04:31

Taiwanese AF rubbish the PAF claim about the AIM-120 provenance. Needs to be retweeted and circulated
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3648621

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby suryag » 02 Mar 2019 04:32

I fully agree with what Sudeepj sir said, the more i look at PAF/PA's performance the more i feel that they were the strongest in 80s but after that they have gone down in capability multiple notches. Look at it, they had only one option i.e., the F-16s to attempt the raid and that too went sour, if the bandars were so capable why werent they used ? I believe their missile arsenal are also over hyped than what they could delivery. The only formidable weapon they have as of today is Jihadi factory, PA/PAF/PN/Nukes being side shows

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ArjunPandit » 02 Mar 2019 04:36

^^does ubcn know more on either of two things
1. what were the 2 other targets apart from balakot
2. has some senior PA been 72ed?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby khan » 02 Mar 2019 04:42

chetak wrote:Circulating in some closed whatsapp groups.

The full facts will anyway be known when Wg Cdr Abinandan provides his operational report and summary.


What has happened Yesterday (As per one of my IAF friends )

Minute by Minute details

9:52 AM – Indian Netra and Northern Air command, detected ten F 16 took off from 3 Airbases from Pakistan. They came in 3 groups and merged in attack formation near POK.

9:54: AM – India scrambled 2 Mig21 Bisons and 4 Sukhoi MKi to intercept 10 PAK F16

9.58 AM – India sounded alert to PAF fighters that, you are about to encroach Indian air space. Please evade.

9.59 AM – India sounded alert # 2, to PAF with IFAC protocols and they didn’t respond

10:00 AM - PAF violates Indian airspace. With Swarm merge attack formation (which is tactical in nature)

10:01 AM - Nine F 16 forced to deviate path and within 1 KM of airspace they returned to POK side after the heavy surface to air ground artillery and valiant fight from our Sukhoi and MIGs.

10:02 AM - One PAK F16 went deep inside Indian territory probably 3 KMs to destroy oil storage at an Army Brigade HQ

10:03 AM – One IAF Sukhoi and one Mig 21 Bison (Wg Cdr Abhinandan Varthaman) continued engaging the F16 in a dog fight maneuver called “Defensive split”. Mig 21 was in the front, then F16 and then a Sukhoi. Due to firing from Sukhoi, F16 fled the scene using a dog fight maneuver called “Wingover”.

10:04 AM – Sukhoi hovered around oil field guarding it and Mig 21 Bison (Wg Cdr Abhinandan) chased F16 out of Indian territory. While chasing he engaged F16 in a lock-in position for his onboard R-73 air to air missile to be deployed.
Here you have to applaud the courage of Abhinandan. He could have returned to base. But if he returns to base then the missile lock in would have been disengaged (due to out of radar coverage) and he will not be able to shoot F16 down. So he decided to chase him down to POK and shoot him down.

10:08 AM – He engaged his R 73 missile that hit the F 16 and downed him

10:08 AM – After shooting him down he performed a highly dangerous maneuver called “High-g barrel roll”. He had to do this because he had been in the vicinity of PAK surface to air artillery and SAM. While doing so he has to vertically climb at high speed and reverse its direction towards India. While doing so his old outdated MIG 21 Bison’s engine thrust had a problem and he became almost non-maneuverable for few secs. And during that time either a SAM or air artillery hit his plane.

So people questioning his valor and skill should understand what has happened. The blame solely lies in Congress and especially AK Anthony of not upgrading or replacing the aging jets. Just upgrading radar and avionics doesn’t give you the edge.

It requires huge piloting skills, ability and courage to drown an F-16 with a Mig-21.

So Salute to Abhinandan


This does not jive with what the Air Force official statement which was that the strike package consisted of F-16’s, Mirage’s and Bandars.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Sid » 02 Mar 2019 04:48

^^ its also wrong because R-73 is IR guided, and does not require any radar lock.

That 10:04 scenerio is bogus.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Cain Marko » 02 Mar 2019 04:49

Ravi Karumanchiri wrote:
srin wrote:Okay - here's some forensic analysis.

Here's an interesting Flightradar24 playback over the past 2 days - before and after the Terroristan airspace closure: https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/1101142521168740352

Please play the video and especially focus on events between 27 Feb between 4:20am and 4:40am (my understanding is that it is in UTC), which corresponds to 9:50am - 10:10am IST. The video is fast, so you'll need to pause and then jump the right time. FYI - the TSP attack happened at around 10 am, so we're looking at the airspace immediately before and after. Keep your focus on the Srinagar airport. Rajouri is down and left of the airport.

Observe that there are civilian flights at 04:21 and some at 04:30 and a lot more at 04:38.

So, we know that our Mig-21s are armed with R-77. And our Sukhois have R-27 and R-77, so I've been puzzling on why we didn't take a BVR shot on the 27th morning. And this is the answer - the airspace around Rajouri had civilian flights in it.

The corollary to this is that it is highly likely that the PAF fired BVR missile in an airspace with civilian airliners that don't respond to IFF.


^^^^^^^^^^
This is a really big deal. Much more hay needs to be made of it. Can you identify which aircraft might have potentially been within the threat envelop? Have those airlines been notified? How about the press in those countries?

I'll say it again, this is a very big deal, and underscores the 'T' in 'TSP quite well.

Similarly, I think it's important to note, the Jordanians themselves suffered a collective 'National Tragedy' in recent years, when one of their F16 pilots came down and fell into the hands of ISIS (who famously burned him alive in a cage on video, as terrorists are want to do).

This incident was very painful for the Jordanian Royals, King Abdullah himself is an F16 qualified pilot, and would probably shudder at the thought of a formerly Jordanian F16 flying what amounted to a terror mission to back JeM, while wantonly shooting off BVR missiles into ongoing air traffic.

There is hay to be made of this also.

So too, for a US-supplied missile fired at India. The irony of the Taliban lacking an air force made this eventuality inevitable. Now that it has come to pass...... I'll say it again: There is much hay to be made on this point alone. Isn't this evidence of a breach of US Law? What can be done to ensure US Law is applied to the TSP's backside?

For sure, the BVR shot into Indian airspace is a straight-up act of terrorism. That it failed any kill, is down to sheer luck, nothing resembling goodwill.

Likewise, releasing the captured IAF pilot was the only way to end hostilities (or at least, pause them). Keeping the IAF pilot would have meant accepting the continuance of hostilities. That's what's happened here. Nobody should stray from those facts (it's not a narrative, it's how things are).


Quoting the entire thing in full as these are some very crucial observations. Can any one with contacts in the media get these out? Is saurabh Jha reading this?
Last edited by Cain Marko on 02 Mar 2019 04:52, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Rudradev » 02 Mar 2019 04:50

The attack on the US Marine installation at Helmand (Af) at this particular juncture is interesting.

It used to be once upon a time that when the US hit Tanzeemi/TSPA/ISI Pak-vermin in Afghanistan, or on the border (Salala), or in FATA via drones... the Pakis would retaliate with a terrorist strike against an Indian target (which they considered "soft"). Either in Afghanistan, such as our consulate, or in India itself. The hope was to provoke some ineffectual protestations from Manmohan Singh or whoever so that the Pakis could then withdraw their forces from Global War on Terror locations on the pretext that "India will attack"... while knowing fully well that India would never attack.

Modi has turned this dynamic on its head, by 180 degrees. After Balakote the Pakistanis have no delusions at all about India being a "soft target". They are also hysterical about the fact that Unkil did not swoop in to save them from the tremendous beating by finger-wagging at New Delhi. For this reason, they want to threaten Trump's credibility with his domestic constituency over his capacity to execute a successful Afghan withdrawal.

So they do this Taliban attack on a USMC compound in Helmand. Hoping to cause major American casualties, dragging America into the picture with tons of equal-equal re: India, and also embarrassing the GOTUS' claims of conducting peace talks with the Taliban ahead of a withdrawal from Afghanistan. They cannot stand that Unkil is ignoring them and letting them be b*ggered fifty ways by the Yindoos; so their tactical brilliance has kicked into action on the other front.

It used to be: US hit Pakis, so Pakis hit out at India. Now it is: India hit Pakis, so Pakis hit out at the US.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby khan » 02 Mar 2019 04:57

Rudradev wrote:The attack on the US Marine installation at Helmand (Af) at this particular juncture is interesting.

It used to be once upon a time that when the US hit Tanzeemi/TSPA/ISI Pak-vermin in Afghanistan, or on the border (Salala), or in FATA via drones... the Pakis would retaliate with a terrorist strike against an Indian target (which they considered "soft"). Either in Afghanistan, such as our consulate, or in India itself. The hope was to provoke some ineffectual protestations from Manmohan Singh or whoever so that the Pakis could then withdraw their forces from Global War on Terror locations on the pretext that "India will attack"... while knowing fully well that India would never attack.

Modi has turned this dynamic on its head, by 180 degrees. After Balakote the Pakistanis have no delusions at all about India being a "soft target". They are also hysterical about the fact that Unkil did not swoop in to save them from the tremendous beating by finger-wagging at New Delhi. For this reason, they want to threaten Trump's credibility with his domestic constituency over his capacity to execute a successful Afghan withdrawal.

So they do this Taliban attack on a USMC compound in Helmand. Hoping to cause major American casualties, dragging America into the picture with tons of equal-equal re: India, and also embarrassing the GOTUS' claims of conducting peace talks with the Taliban ahead of a withdrawal from Afghanistan. They cannot stand that Unkil is ignoring them and letting them be b*ggered fifty ways by the Yindoos; so their tactical brilliance has kicked into action on the other front.

It used to be: US hit Pakis, so Pakis hit out at India. Now it is: India hit Pakis, so Pakis hit out at the US.

Not only that, these Einstein’s are scoring a self goal again. While President Trump might want out of Afghanistan, there are people like Bolton that want to stay in. Attack’s like these will make it harder for the US to declare victory & leave which is the preferred way of leaving.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby chaitanya » 02 Mar 2019 05:00

^ But is that so surprising? We know that pakistan is just a big fat ugly baby trying to get its way since it can't do anything without the help of its four fathers. Its throwing a huge fit so the situation is muddied and they come in to try and calm down the situation. This is where all those expensive and 'useless foreign trips'* of Modi will come into play - make no doubt about it. India's hard power and soft power are coming together at this juncture, and that is why we need to continue striking while the iron is hot. India should go bomb some talibunnies and PA positions and say this is India's contribution to GWOT :lol: That way america also gets what it wants - a 'more involved' India in afg.

*The impact of Modi's international trips translating into the isolation of Pakistan - iow the rise of India's soft power - needs to be circulated on SM to counter that stupid propaganda from the motivated opposition

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby sanjaykumar » 02 Mar 2019 05:09

Modi is not good for what little business Pakistan conducts.

https://globalfishingwatch.org/map/?gcl ... gKsa_D_BwE

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Prashanth_R » 02 Mar 2019 05:16

Looks like Diwali started again at LOC

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Rudradev » 02 Mar 2019 05:18

khan wrote:Not only that, these Einstein’s are scoring a self goal again. While President Trump might want out of Afghanistan, there are people like Bolton that want to stay in. Attack’s like these will make it harder for the US to declare victory & leave which is the preferred way of leaving.


Possibly. I'm still in two minds about Paki intentions w.r.t. Unkil leaving or not leaving Afghanistan.

If US leaves, a LOT of cash flow that used to ultimately benefit TSPA/ISI jernail-contractors in Pakistan (trucking, catering, construction, labour, what-have-you) will dry up. Also Pakistan will effectively become a 400% backwater and there will never, ever be any appetite in Washington to save them from a beating by India (as happened so often during say Parakram or post-26/11). So there are reasons why Pakistan would want the US not to leave.

OTOH if the US leaves, Pakistan can hope to fill the vacuum in Afghanistan again, reclaim strategic depth, and turn the place into a Taliban-managed jihadi factory for use against India. BUT I am uncertain if, for example, China would want this. Afghanistan is a little too close to East Turkestan/Xinjiang for their comfort.

Re: Pak-China relations, I think Xi's "OBOR" dreams have sort of faded, at least with respect to Gwadar becoming a seaport outlet for raw materials mined in a joint Beijing/Islamabad-controlled Afghanistan and trucked out over the grand highways of CPEC. The total dysfunction of the Paki economy and civil administration, the inability to ever recover loans given to broke-azz Slumbad, plus the costs of unrest in Balochistan, were giving the Chinese pause over whether CPEC had ever been that good an investment. Now we've added to their doubts very considerably with Operation Balakot and what it implies for CPEC's security :mrgreen:

I think the Pakis right now are busily trying to hand over the reins to a third father, Saudi Arabia. That's what the business of MBS saying "Pakistan will be the Eastern Chowkidar of a New Middle East" was all about. But tauba tauba, the Saudis also sat on their hands while the SDREs went about slaying hundreds of jihadis in Balakot. Adding insult to injury they invited Sushma Swaraj to make some kafir speech at the OIC while this was happening.

So where to go now?

I think there is only one way for the Pakis to go. Kamikaze, towards India. All those BRF-ites feeling let down that everything has de-escalated, listen carefully to what Modi said about "pilot project". All this was the trailer, the movie is yet to come. My feeling is it will be released very soon. 155 mm arty exchanges and missile fire on the LOC/IB is no joke. And the fifth-column front (except in the media/soft-power sense) has not been fully activated in the Indian hinterland yet. Everything is on the cards, including (I am sure) attempts on our PM's life.

Also, the ONLY avenue of revenge Pakis have for Balakot is to do another atrocity of 26/11 magnitude... nothing else will slake the thirsts of the Tanzeems, and such an action is the only thing that could threaten Modi's re-election (by demonstrating that his policy of Balakoting the Pakis does not suppress their terroristic impulses).

There will be no de-escalation beyond the very very short term. Things will escalate again. At first sub-conventionally. And we will respond, conventionally. This will happen soon. My prediction.
Last edited by Rudradev on 02 Mar 2019 05:22, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Mar 2019 05:21

ArjunPandit wrote:^^does ubcn know more on either of two things
1. what were the 2 other targets apart from balakot
2. has some senior PA been 72ed?


Thx.
1. Awaiting word on precise nature of the other two targets. Will update when received: as u know v have the highest standards for what we peddle. Got a reputation to hold up etc.
2. U bet. When 700 terrorists and their trainers/handlers are congregated at a resort, they don't just let them whittle away their energies doing (never mind) in the goat shed. Given their talent and tendency to self-inflate, imagine what they would quickly start doing to each other! :eek: They WILL of course have very senior PA arriving for "debriefing" (no pun intended) and "inspirational lectures" as well as strategy and tactics and weapon updates, plus the celebratory function to reward the planners and weapon designers of the Pulwama Operation. IOW, serious gloating and goating and bloating done b4 they all went off to snore in the wee hours. Say at 2AM. Straight to Houristan at 3:48.

So apart from the very stellar roster that was (never mind), consider the loss of the 1200 goats, every single one a Beauty Contest Winner - the (de)flora of Pakistani feminity itself. India should hang its sdre head in shame at such useless slaughter. Many terrorists (uniformed and otherwise) who are lovers of these goats are in shock and bereavement in Pindi, 'Hore and I'good. And they are in rage, believe me, at the useless cowards of the PAF who sat on their thumbs and claimed to be "turning their weapon radar on and off" sitting on the ground while the IAF roamed ALL OVER Islamabad, Pindi, Lahore, Sialkot, Muzzafarabad (pbuh), ABBOTABAD, and maybe even Sargodha and Peshawar and Jacobabad for all we know. IOW, Bakistan was TOTALLY VIOLATED in H&D and other respects. Those could just as well have launched SPICEs at Pindi HQ, or at any Jarnail's mansion!!! :shock:

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ArjunPandit » 02 Mar 2019 05:33

^^UBCN aka Llama/Yak news readers would also like to know why PAF stayed in the night. I mean if they can't see at night, then why not just hide the pen up ..sorry plane inside the pen. Avid users think it is keep others guessing that they're nude than actually tell they're nude. But then the temptation to come to their self was too much to ignore and they showed that in the daytime raids.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Mar 2019 05:35

Arjunji:

Latest info is that PAF has also been very lazy in installing cameras on the famed Bakistani Jiyo (GEO) Satellite Nishaan-e-Multan. Compared to what the yindoos have been busily doing. How else do you think, the yindoos knew exactly when to do the mass pest-e-sha'eed? Per our info, the delay from 2AM to 3:48 was because of the time needed for the ex-GTRE types tied to the chairs in Bangalore, Kerala, reading off badges from the uniforms of the Senior PA types and relaying them to HQ in (never mind).

When the list actually came in - and they confirmed against the OrBat posted at a certain "defense Phorum", yindoos started falling off chairs, b4 they got up and woke up Modi. He gave the go-ahead.

P.S. Do you REALLY believe that it was all SPICE bums that were used at Balakot? No need at all since the planes were in the area for 3 full minutes. Point is, draw a 40km radius circle from Balakot, and extend that 60km swath all along their CLAIMED flight path. The SPICEs could have been launched at any point along that path.

NOW u start seeing why PA is in such a rage towards PAF. It is one thing to strafe a PN ship in Karachi after the Indians have left...
Today it was just those two who bailed out of their F-16 and got caught. Tomorrow... I wonder whether cars driving into PAF bases check under their hoods b4 starting their engines. Tomorrow morning... or any other morning... or maybe evening... :twisted: :evil:
Last edited by UlanBatori on 02 Mar 2019 05:38, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby disha » 02 Mar 2019 05:36

ramana wrote:
Singha wrote:IMO BRF should get rid of its IAF officer database.

I can think of no earthly reason why it needs to be there. a/c details fine, pilots and service numbers why?

whoever owns it need to address it asap. i was not even aware it existed until the mig21 incident.


I was shocked that it was out in open. And there were posters here and on twitter who were circulating it. Put it this way, if anybody leaks out the corporate directory, they are fired from the job.

And the above information is even more sensitive. Why the need to compile for current in-service person in first place? And why the need to put it out in open? That db of current in-service persons need to be destroyed. Ex service persons after retiring and with say <n> year delay may be kept.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Mar 2019 05:37

ArjunPandit wrote:^^UBCN aka Llama/Yak news readers would also like to know why PAF stayed in the night. I mean if they can't see at night, then why not just hide the pen up ..sorry plane inside the pen. Avid users think it is keep others guessing that they're nude than actually tell they're nude. But then the temptation to come to their self was too much to ignore and they showed that in the daytime raids.


They are not UNABLE to SEE in the night: they have the best RayBans with IR amplifiers.
They are AFRAID to LOOK in the night. Small difference. :mrgreen:

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Jagan » 02 Mar 2019 05:54

disha wrote:
ramana wrote:


I was shocked that it was out in open. And there were posters here and on twitter who were circulating it. Put it this way, if anybody leaks out the corporate directory, they are fired from the job.

And the above information is even more sensitive. Why the need to compile for current in-service person in first place? And why the need to put it out in open? That db of current in-service persons need to be destroyed. Ex service persons after retiring and with say <n> year delay may be kept.


Check the DB again - where the source data comes from will be an eye-opener for many of you..


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