Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Mar 2019 08:24

ramana wrote:I think DRDO design of Garuda and Garuthma are Desi SPICE 2000.
The Garuthma has wings, onboard guidance and a 1000 kg payload with 100 km range.
Garuda is same with smaller wings and 30 km range.


while these would be needed in 1000s..... the same tech should be applied to smaller 250lb SDB/AASM type weapons (smaller wings needed) which also are needed in 10000s .... SDB has proven that with high accuracy seeker and their mil channel GPS, it can do a lot of damage including to aircraft shelters and permit a single a.c to carry lots of rounds. SAAW should be adapted with a IIR seeker also.

we need to do whatever is needed to make IRNSS a viable weapons targeting system with 1m CEP. if this means tieups with "friendly partner nations" and fresh round of satellites so be it. this is a national priority to be independent of gps(we only have civil signal with 10m cep) and glonass(preferably).
glonass iirc is not a full global system but oriented to the areas that russians need to fight in. it may not properly cover south asia. we cannot hang our hats on russian govt always being in a mood to share their mil channel glonass signal if they share it today.

a media article yesterday was saying we have only 200 Spice1000, a very inadequate number but understandable given the cost and hitherto only m2k could fire it . now su30 has tested and they would also be available but low number stands.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 06 Mar 2019 08:29

Singha can you locate that article please?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Mar 2019 08:32

Karanji: (just back from the grassy slopes). Thx. All good. I just don't pay much attention to image analysis when those with reason to fudge have had the time. The absence of timely drone imagery is the clincher that the "resort" is gone.

NLI example is a good point but blaming the "Kashmiri Mujaheddin" for the attacks on NH-1 was an afterthought: the plan was always for Mush to follow up the NH-1 closure with the 50,000 winter parkas stuffed with Pakis, waiting in Skardu/Gilgit to invade Srinagar. So then the NLI was to come swarming down to Kargil. The Bofors and Mirage 2000s and the heroes climbing cliffs in darkness at 18000 feet ended all that.

Here the Pakis reacted VERY fast: IAF came at 3:48: essentially 4AM b4 they dared look up. The news of Balakot hit us (BRF) b4 9AM IST -actually around 7AM IST we were discussing "something going on" with CAP over Abbotabad etc. So by daybreak papparazzi were rushing there - and reported 10 ambulances.Plus The Kid as the first source. No one was allowed to go up there, which is very unlike Paki reaction to say, Marriott bombing (Peshawar?) etc. where anyone could walk in, and photos came out fast. Same with the usual inflations and bulb bursts in Karachi: chaotic response. Not here: area was sealed off.
Reuters went there - and were escorted to the Four Craters In The Forest. (note: there must be SOME basis for that - hope IAF reveals at some point what actually was dropped there). The drone question is the killer to me: anyone today would know to do that first.

Pakis were utterly tight-lipped about casualties, despite those reported 10 ambulances. Why? They could have said: 20 children and 100 goats were injured by cruel Indians, hain? They do that every day at LOC ("Indian shelling kills 3 civilians all in burkhas and wearing PA boots") So why the complete "nothing beyond The Four Craters" claim? Masood's bro could have got a lot of mileage :(( about Modi's yindoo extremists targeting peaceful Islamic Meditation Site. NOTHING.

So given all that, they would have done everything possible to cover up the extent of damage, from the air. GOI said early on (first report, actually by Babus hu remained anonymous) that "when the images come, all you will see is rubble" or something like that. I believe that.
Everything else you see now is 399% likely to be bogus. White stage-set made to look like what stood there.
Four holes (but no soot or signs of explosion smoke blasting out) on the "con-crete" roof. The idea is to convey that casualties were maybe 10. Or 20.

The estimate based on RAA intel and Pest Mass Conservation is between 350 and 700 pests assembled inside that night. I don't think that 100% death is likely, but I would say 80% dead, rest in hospital and dying. Masood's bro, the Big Chief, seems to have been inflated too, so they pulled the switch, declaring Masood dead instead, and faking a Radio Broadcast (not TV) of the Bro exhorting his flock to rush into India wearing soosai vests.

Just as the "Wing Cdr Abhinandan" shown on Pak TV was fake, the "resort" buildings now seen are also fake.

The Kargil/NLI analogy is relevant. Pakis have realized that the Four Craters In Forest theory is not going to hold: like Kargil, there will be enquiries after whereabouts of the 700, and relatives are not going to be silent forever. Hence the convenient Four Holes In Roof, so that anyone whose relatives ask, can be declared dead (Direct hit, what 2 do, hain hain!).
Last edited by UlanBatori on 06 Mar 2019 08:43, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Mar 2019 08:35

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/ec ... 24612.html

India had acquired 200 units of Spice-2000 smart bombs from Israel a few years ago. Reports suggest that initial trials have already been carried out with Sukhoi Su-30s targeting ground targets using these bombs.

"We have successfully carried out trials of the Spice-2000 bombs on the Su-30 aircraft and the successful integration would mean that a large fleet of the Indian Air Force would be able to drop these munitions," top Air Force sources told India Today.

---
^^ unless we quietly laid in more stocks without SIPRI type databases noting, thats what we have now. inadequate for a sustained campaign against deep targets.

we needed Garuda and Garuthma yesterday and SAAW needs a cheap uncooled IIR seeker. russians have plenty of exp in this uncooled seeker business because thats why they primarily used. either adapt Nag tech or work with their basement storage projects. supercold gas cartridge is likely used to cool these IIR seekers for the minutes they are active.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRDO_Smar ... eld_Weapon

clearly from these pics, it lacks a iir seeker at present

Image

Image

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Mar 2019 08:37

Image

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Mar 2019 08:45

ramana wrote:Singha can you locate that article please?


I have posted it above with my saaw rant. it came in various outlets yesterday.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Ravi Karumanchiri » 06 Mar 2019 08:48

Guddu wrote:
Chinmayanand wrote:Watch it and comment. In war games , paki NASR comes out dud. Pakis can not use it against Cold start.

I think gurus here can better understand and comment.


Nice talk, someone with better knowledge of deterrence might want to comment.


^^^^^^^^ I'll give it a shot in the dark.......

As with all such comparative analyses, we consider the aggressor systems versus the defender systems; their technical capabilities and limitations vis a vis the likely employed tactics and strategy. TO WIT.......

If the scenario is "Cold Start", which envisions IA tanks penetrating the IB; the tactics employed will be to divide large divisions of IA armour into smaller brigades, loosely spaced and widely spread-out, to encircle TSP population centers. To counter, the TSP's only option would be crewwj mijjles and their vaunted TNWs; but the problem with this is they'd need to be doing too much nuking of their own territory and beobles, to make this "effective". Consider: A given nuke strike will create "over pressures" and "heat" and other blast effects, with rapidly diminishing returns over distance. Sure, some tanks will be killed, but most will survive. IOW their only option would be a scorched-earth policy, and not even a Pyrrhic victory.

NOTHING the TSP could do, would halt the 'Cold Start'. IOW their only "efficacious" battle usage of their nukes and crewj mijjiles, would be against Indian population centers; BUT these crewj mijjiles only fly at about mach 0.85; while the IAF has fighters with guns and A2A missiles on them, that do much better speed, and are crewed by some very, very capable pilots. Many of these mijjiles will be shot-down........... Then comes the counter-strike from India == not a pretty prospect for the TSP.

IN SUM: TSP crewj mijjiles would fail to halt a 'Cold Start' IA land-grab without harikiri (seppuku); and they would not strike Indian population targets with high certainty/effect, on account of their slow speed relative to Mig21s and others.

[How's that for an armchair mil-analyst?]

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Ankit Desai » 06 Mar 2019 08:49

I asked it earlier. Let me try again

Any news about other two targets ?

Total 12 Mirages took off to drop payloads with Su30 & MIGs for air support.

Each Mirage was carrying 1000kg bomb to be dropped. There is no news saying Balakot was hit by 12 bombs. Each news was saying 4-5 bombs were dropped.

So other Mirages dropped their payload some where else. On the day of Balakot, news channels were talking about 3-4 targets so what did happen to at least other two targets ?

-Ankit

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby A_Gupta » 06 Mar 2019 08:53

I wish people would release coordinates. That site with holes in the roofs is not any with coordinates on this thread.

Second, Just a question: could synthetic aperture radar detect those holes in the roofs?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Mar 2019 08:58

their stock of AMRAAM is atleast a decade old IMHO.... electronics has progressed a lot since then.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Mar 2019 09:02

if the spice warhead is a FAE then there will v little to take into ambulance..better to bring a dumper/tipper. I mean sab kuch raakh ho gaya hoga... burnt bodies dont need too much space. a very big shamshaan ghat ( may i say ). wah wah ....

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Mar 2019 09:06

And again, to be succinct: the problem with the "First Real Images" etc. is that the postors are unwittingly allowing themselves to be used as tools of Pakistan propaganda - with their past credibility being the tool to make ppl on BRF etc believe it.

The images are of a "reality" that has been tailored to tell the Paki version of "truth". So please disregard them.

Ambulances would have rushed up there as a matter of course, given that many important PA and terrorist entities were there. Ten is a HUGE number. Probably there would be some who escaped with concussion etc. Plus: look at Masood. It takes a fair amount of high explosive to blow up that much mass.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Mar 2019 09:12

manjgu wrote:their stock of AMRAAM is atleast a decade old IMHO.... electronics has progressed a lot since then.


I am sure sw updates are pushed periodically both to amraams and the radar.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Dileep » 06 Mar 2019 09:16

As predicted, someone bought the sat image and did the analysis :twisted:

The 'hole' in Raj47' report looks exactly like the hole seen at the test site.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Mar 2019 09:19

imo 250lb spice with FAE was used since even the roofs did not collapse. some sleeping tents may have been burned to the ground and hence scorch marks outside.

FAE would still create considerable noise if villagers heard booms.

for this size of smallish target that would be the appropriate weapon selection and also minimize civilian toll if any went astray and hit a innocent village instead.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby sivab » 06 Mar 2019 09:26

https://twitter.com/Gen_VKSingh/status/ ... 9963167744

Vijay Kumar Singh
‏Verified account @Gen_VKSingh
35m35 minutes ago

रात ३.३० बजे मच्छर बहुत थे,

तो मैंने HIT मारा।

अब मच्छर कितने मारे, ये गिनने बैठूँ,

या आराम से सो जाऊँ?

#GenerallySaying

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby A_Gupta » 06 Mar 2019 09:28

^^^ If the site is the same as the one that Nathan Ruser has, the weapon would have to go astray by more than a kilometer to hit an innocent non-combatant village.

(Sorry, but I puke using the word innocent in this context.)


PS: The target is allegedly at latitude, longitude of 34.464118°, 73.318160°A
PPS: Google Maps but not Google Earth gives the name of where I put the pin as "Kagan Gali".

Image
Last edited by A_Gupta on 06 Mar 2019 09:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Mar 2019 09:41

4 or 5 amraams fired
Troops are searching for the others

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 305232107/

All this while civil flights were in the air north of jammu ...

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Mar 2019 09:44

another thing to be noted is that its v inauspicious for the momins to get burnt... getting burnt and dying it straight path to jahanoom ( no hoors there) ..so use of FAE is v significant.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Mar 2019 09:51

they should put a reward of Rs 100000 for each AMRAAM found... i am sure will be found v soon instead of troops looking for it.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Mar 2019 09:54

Having committed this crime they are now terrified the consequences

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby khan » 06 Mar 2019 09:58

Singha wrote:4 or 5 amraams fired
Troops are searching for the others

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 305232107/

All this while civil flights were in the air north of jammu ...

This makes it even more obvious that the Bakis sent their best strike force, at a time and place of their choosing, gave it their best shot and came up short. If they had managed to take out the brigade HQ & the Ammo dump we would be looking at 200+ casualties.

They were beaten by a force that they outnumbered 4-1. Even if the Mig-21 didn’t take out an F-16 on its way down, it was a damn good show.

I hope the ROE’s are changed so that anytime a missile is launched in anger at an IAF asset or any ordinance is dropped in Indian territory, the entire IAF is sent out hunting after that mother f*****g strike package to make sure none of them ever see a runway again.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Mar 2019 10:02

I doubt Uncle Sam will do anything about the Paki perfidy of using the AMRAAM... they need Pakis for talks with Taliban.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 06 Mar 2019 10:06

Singha wrote:...................
^^ unless we quietly laid in more stocks without SIPRI type databases noting, thats what we have now. inadequate for a sustained campaign against deep targets.

we needed Garuda and Garuthma yesterday and SAAW needs a cheap uncooled IIR seeker. russians have plenty of exp in this uncooled seeker business because thats why they primarily used. either adapt Nag tech or work with their basement storage projects. supercold gas cartridge is likely used to cool these IIR seekers for the minutes they are active.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRDO_Smar ... eld_Weapon

clearly from these pics, it lacks a iir seeker at present



Singha, SIPRI db covers only a fraction of what we purchase. A I will say is we have had several rounds of restocking in the past few years.

SAAW will likely have the DRDO MMW sensor, not an IIR one, for all weather attacks. Check the radome.

Russians dont have any IIR seeker equipped weapons that I know of. Probably the Kh38 I guess but not sure. Their systems are mostly day/lowlight weapons with CCD.

There are a plethora of DRDO munitions on the way all in final phase of trials, and will radically change IAFs warfighting. IAF wants stuff that will work no matter what and matches what they can import, and protect the pilot, it's their point to make.

There are more in tests than those mentioned here.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BY8KdJaWdaU/ ... Poster.jpg

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby yensoy » 06 Mar 2019 10:10

manjgu wrote:I doubt Uncle Sam will do anything about the Paki perfidy of using the AMRAAM... they need Pakis for talks with Taliban.


No it won't but here's how conversation will go in the future:
Khan: ".... Iran sanctions"
India: ".... F-16"
Khan: "S-400"
India: "AMRAAM"
Khan: "I see, let's get a drink, I will buy you a beer"
India: "I'll grab my coat"

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 06 Mar 2019 10:20

Manjgu,
Take a look at the second picture in the ANI link. Does it look like the part that has the serial # exploded or what?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby banrjeer » 06 Mar 2019 10:37

More explicitly with Unkil, Saudis: you fund my terrorist, I fund yours.

As for China, look at the humoungous risk and investment of CPEC. This is not some pony express through virgin depopulated territory like the US had in the 1800s, but it goes through a 10,000 year old conflict ridden human cesspool and is far longer.

With a bit of persuasion it can be made to shrivel and die, a massive waste of Chini investment.

Perhaps Trump is bringing in tarriffs in anticipation of a negotiation

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 06 Mar 2019 10:40

Ramana, doesn't this remind you of the "invincible Patton tank" syndrome??

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 305232107/

4-5 AMRAAMS fired at 40-50 km, i.e. well within operating ranges - and ALL miss. Being Khan provided stocks, they would have been kept under the best conditions etc etc.

Some beers & back-slapping occurred in the IAF officers mess and a silent thanks to the EW/ECM fit & whosoever came up with all the SOPs.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 06 Mar 2019 10:42

Like I said, the Pakis threw their entire armory at us... AND are sitting on their a$$es playing propah-gandu.

AMRAAMs, Raptor glide bombs, entire fighter fleet bar the F-7, and I am sure they had their couple of EW aircraft in the air also...

And after all this, they lose a F-16 to a MiG-21 Bison.

Hats off to the IAF, if there ever was one day when we should realize what kind of people sit in the cockpits, it is today.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 06 Mar 2019 10:45

Karan M wrote:Ramana, doesn't this remind you of the "invincible Patton tank" syndrome??

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 305232107/

4-5 AMRAAMS fired at 40-50 km, i.e. well within operating ranges - and ALL miss. Being Khan provided stocks, they would have been kept under the best conditions etc etc.

Some beers & back-slapping occurred in the IAF officers mess and a silent thanks to the EW/ECM fit & whosoever came up with all the SOPs.


Having seen all episodes of dogfights in history channel, the probability of all 5 AMRAAMS missing in a single engagement is very low. In gulf and middle east wars, these missiles performed fine against same Russian jets flown by arab air forces. Really wonder how pakis managed to achieve this.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 06 Mar 2019 10:47

Karthik S wrote:Having seen all episodes of dogfights in history channel, the probability of all 5 AMRAAMS missing in a single engagement is very low. In gulf and middle east wars, these missiles performed fine against same Russian jets flown by arab air forces. Really wonder how pakis managed to achieve this.


Karthik, they were fighting tier 3 AF without properly trained or supported pilots, poorly maintained aircraft without proper EW & ECM.

Not the case here.

Should really be a case study in "don't underestimate your opponent".

And the IAF is also something else, they have done something which 9/10 AF would brag to the sky about, and our boys are least bothered & going about their daily stuff like, no problem. That is absolute professionalism.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ranneel » 06 Mar 2019 10:57

Pakistan issued a Notam on 05 March reopening Multan to international and domestic traffic. Additionally, Chitral, Panjgur, and Gwadar airports have been reopened to domestic traffic.
Faisy has flights scheduled from 15:30 hrs onwards.
No international flights flying from India airspace to Pakistan though,
Last edited by ranneel on 06 Mar 2019 11:00, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 06 Mar 2019 11:00

At the time of the 2nd Cope India or thereabouts, I remember reading an USAF pilots interview of his "Cope India experience" .. this was an interview to a USAF affiliated mag. He had gone up against IAF MiG-29s & was clearly shaken by the experience.

He said, to paraphrase "I'd launch one, they'd launch one, and we were both scoring hits equally, we were losing aircraft at a rate which was not good. This is not how we want to fight, they were good and we don't want to fight like this". In short, the USAF does not want to go to battle with a peer, on equal terms and take casualties, it is madness & hence the F-22 and F-35 (which I suspect will also be shown up in real world conditions against a well trained adversary!).

But take a moment and think about what his quote meant about the IAF.

Then the BR archives should have the entire transcript of the 2USAF pilots from Cope 2 and what they thought of the IAF.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 06 Mar 2019 11:00

ranneel wrote:Pakistan issued a Notam on 05 March reopening Multan to international and domestic traffic. Additionally, Chitral, Panjgur, and Gwadar airports have been reopened to domestic traffic.
Faisy has flights scheduled from 15:30 hrs onwards.


So they have made up their POL stocks. Are they SPICE proof? :lol:

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 06 Mar 2019 11:06

Most likely cause of unintended combustion of POL stocks would likely happen because of BrahMos.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Aditya_V » 06 Mar 2019 11:07

Given the PAF behaved on Feb 27 breakign RoE's, I think we should either Hit the PA again. The PAF declared war.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Mar 2019 11:12

gents I took a screenshot of flightradar24 around 10.30 am today and found a air asia flight at cruising altitude in the middle of where the 4 su30s were per the map.

Image

there are no other srinagar->delhi flights around that time. leh<-> delhi follows a more direct route east of this area I think.
https://aviability.com/flight-search/fr ... elhi-india

in other direction, there are multiple flights from delhi -> sringar that would be either in or approaching this region
https://www.google.com/flights?lite=0#f ... 1;t:f;tt:o
viz
Indigo DEP 955
Goair DEP 915
Spicejet DEP 1025
Air India DEP 1015
none of these flights may have made it to srinagar, they would have been turned back by ATC or forced down into Jammu.

any of these could have been taken down by the amraams running feral and the blame conveniently pinned on IAF fratricde with the connivance of the western MSM

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 06 Mar 2019 11:24

Karan M wrote:At the time of the 2nd Cope India or thereabouts, I remember reading an USAF pilots interview of his "Cope India experience" .. this was an interview to a USAF affiliated mag. He had gone up against IAF MiG-29s & was clearly shaken by the experience.

He said, to paraphrase "I'd launch one, they'd launch one, and we were both scoring hits equally, we were losing aircraft at a rate which was not good. This is not how we want to fight, they were good and we don't want to fight like this". In short, the USAF does not want to go to battle with a peer, on equal terms and take casualties, it is madness & hence the F-22 and F-35 (which I suspect will also be shown up in real world conditions against a well trained adversary!).

But take a moment and think about what his quote meant about the IAF.

Then the BR archives should have the entire transcript of the 2USAF pilots from Cope 2 and what they thought of the IAF.

I remember this. The pilots were in f16.net IIRC and an enterprising BRFite Jcage found the posts. One had f16.net forum username moose or moose69 or something like that.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 06 Mar 2019 11:28

Btw, if PAF fired amraams beyond visual confirmation range while civil airliners were in the vicinity that's a big deal and a war crime.
If this happened we missed a trick by not holding the pakis feet to the fire on this. At the very least IAF should have announced it.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Mar 2019 11:32

the TOI article today itself says the amraams were fired from 40-50km away

thats well beyond any visual range.

idea may have been force the su30s to scatter, keep them tied up, bag a couple if possible and allow the northern strike group to sneak in - which they did and only 2 Mig21 were available on ORP slot.


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