Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 12 Mar 2019 19:49

But what happens in 15 days, none of these vessels have a greater endurance, unless they are in foreign port or can Pakis afford High seas refuelling ?. These deployments must be costing them a ton in fuel and spare parts.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 12 Mar 2019 19:58

in 15 days they limp back home or hand over to somali's

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 12 Mar 2019 19:59

JayS wrote:
khan wrote: I really wish GOI announced these things & humiliated the Bakis. H&D is more important to them than their soldiers lives.
Just saw citation of Shourya Chakra awarded to Captain Abhay Sharma, SM. from 1 Para SF. Google and read. I hope you get the drift with it.

The brave act of Captain Abhay Sharma is cited here. The details make it more or less obvious.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 694564.cms

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Mar 2019 20:08

Lalmohan wrote:in 15 days they limp back home or hand over to somali's

imo they will head for refueling & food to saudi or uae ports and hope to sortie out from there again...atleast the surface ships.

the subs may have an endurance of 30 days at sea if they were topped up with diesel.

SidSoma · Post by **SidSoma** » 12 Mar 2019 21:55

Theory: In their hurry to escape, they trapped one of their own submarines, claiming it was an Indian

What is the use of PN? who are they going to challenge?

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 12 Mar 2019 22:13

Sanju wrote:<OT> In '71 when we captured Khokhrapar station, the ticket packet was taken as a memento. I have one of those tickets with me. The full bundle was given to my maternal uncle. Desert war has its challenges and funny stories.

Possible for you to share the memento on Teetar or here?

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 12 Mar 2019 22:15

nam wrote:News that DM has said we hit 3 targets? can anyone confirm?

Ghafoor was trying to cover up Muzzaffarabad raid on tweeter and typing fast when the Balakot must have been hit.

He did not inform us about Balakot strike..

could it be we scooped the cherry in one of the other two strikes while the balakot was mere anthill kick?? Next few months would see interesting trickle down .

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 12 Mar 2019 22:37

resounding silence on the other two strikes indeed...

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 12 Mar 2019 23:38

schinnas wrote:
JayS wrote:
Just saw citation of Shourya Chakra awarded to Captain Abhay Sharma, SM. from 1 Para SF. Google and read. I hope you get the drift with it.
The brave act of Captain Abhay Sharma is cited here. The details make it more or less obvious.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 694564.cms

Captain Abhay Sharma, SM was the party commander tasked to undertake patrolling against enemy Border Action Team along Line of Control in Jammu district of
Jammu and Kashmir. On 21 April 2018, Captain Abhay Sharma, SM led a patrol along the Line of Control. At 1.10 pm, his own patrol spotted movement of 10 uniformed
enemy personnel carrying weapons and moving towards own post Spur Forward. He quickly deployed his party in two locations and at opportune time he along with his
buddy opened fire and neutralised two enemy personnel. Displaying exceptional battle craft, he provided cover fire enabling his buddy to disengage and move to safety.
Thereafter, displaying exemplary junior leadership he crawled under support fire of his buddy and shot down another enemy regular at close range. Once under effective
fire from enemy posts, he sensed grave danger to entire party and directed fire of five C-90s and destroyed three bunkers. Exhibiting composure and exceptional tactical
acumen under heavy enemy fire, he successfully executed the ambush, destroyed three bunkers, recovered enemy weapon and ensured safe extrication without any
casualty

.

What is a C-90s?

stryker · Post by **stryker** » 12 Mar 2019 23:42

Esteemed members, proud to be Indian when I visit Bharat Rakshak and proud of all of you who respect our boys in uniform. They are ready to lay down their lives so we can live. I have been away for a few years but found my if Id and Pw just a few days ago. Please keep up the good work. I ham a civilian with friends in the military but they will only tell me so much and rightly so. So don’t know anything special except that I IAF has proof of Balakot strike. Btw, a few years ago I sneaked into a Pak defence forum but was thrown out when I mentioned that all the PN surface ships are in the INs crosshairs every day and would not last 15 minutes in serious hostilities. You can’t believe the abuse that was heaped on me. Jai Hind.

Manish Jain · Post by **Manish Jain** » 12 Mar 2019 23:44

So we were wondering why Pakis are acting so spooked. Maybe this tweet by Gen Syed Ata Hasnain would throw some light. Maybe just a joke -
https://twitter.com/atahasnain53/status ... 6418099202

You sure Baloch element of SSG has not already revolted. I am in touch with them. They are willing to say Pakistan se hatega Balochistan. Inshallah Khuda unki murad poori kare

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 13 Mar 2019 00:02

sudeepj wrote:
schinnas wrote:
The brave act of Captain Abhay Sharma is cited here. The details make it more or less obvious.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 694564.cms

Captain Abhay Sharma, SM was the party commander tasked to undertake patrolling against enemy Border Action Team along Line of Control in Jammu district of
Jammu and Kashmir. On 21 April 2018, Captain Abhay Sharma, SM led a patrol along the Line of Control. At 1.10 pm, his own patrol spotted movement of 10 uniformed
enemy personnel carrying weapons and moving towards own post Spur Forward. He quickly deployed his party in two locations and at opportune time he along with his
buddy opened fire and neutralised two enemy personnel. Displaying exceptional battle craft, he provided cover fire enabling his buddy to disengage and move to safety.
Thereafter, displaying exemplary junior leadership he crawled under support fire of his buddy and shot down another enemy regular at close range. Once under effective
fire from enemy posts, he sensed grave danger to entire party and directed fire of five C-90s and destroyed three bunkers. Exhibiting composure and exceptional tactical
acumen under heavy enemy fire, he successfully executed the ambush, destroyed three bunkers, recovered enemy weapon and ensured safe extrication without any
casualty
.

What is a C-90s?

Spanish rocket launcher

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/C90-CR_(M3)

nam · Post by **nam** » 13 Mar 2019 00:49

Our 60 KM deep strike , even when PAF was on full alert with 10 days of warning and heavily defended air space, must have given nightmares for the Chinis. They don't have anything closer to the air defence level in Tibet. With low flying IAF jets it will almost impossible to detect them in time.

So far they fell for Pak's bluff around "managing India" for them using nuke threats. Add to this regular news about our procurement mess must have convinced them that India will never get involved in serious action.

So they used the Pak way of threats during Doklam. Now watch how some of CPEC bribes are scaled back and re-think of Gwadar base..

manoj_niketa · Post by **manoj_niketa** » 13 Mar 2019 01:20

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... WJG5990ds0

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 Mar 2019 01:36

Guys download this video asap using YT video downloader and also keep screenshots handy, also translate the title using Google translate. Might get taken down moment ISI sees it. Am on mobile so cant do it.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 Mar 2019 01:38

It says 200 casualties ( at Balakote strike??)

atreya · Post by **atreya** » 13 Mar 2019 01:44

Karan M wrote:It says 200 casualties ( at Balakote strike??)

Talks about 'jihad', 200 died "yesterday", Allah blessed them, don't cry, your "WALID" is not dead, he is martyred, etc etc. Title as per Google translate is - We are proud of our forces Pakistan. Watch video Do not forget to talk and share

Shameek · Post by **Shameek** » 13 Mar 2019 02:01

Good find! Google translation of the title says:

We are proud of our forces Pakistan. Do not forget to watch and share the video

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 13 Mar 2019 02:03

Meanwhile - Looks like Pak is in peace mood..
Pakistan assures US to deal 'firmly' with all terrorists, says NSA Bolton

WASHINGTON: Pakistan has assured the US that it will deal "firmly" with all terrorists operating from the country and take steps to de-escalate tensions with India, according to National Security Adviser John Bolton.

Such an assurance was given by Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi during a phone call on Monday, Bolton said in a tweet on a day when Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale called on US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo here.

Spoke with Pakistani FM Qureshi to encourage meaningful steps against JeM and other terrorist groups operating from Pakistan," Bolton said.

"The FM assured me that Pakistan would deal firmly with all terrorists and will continue steps to de-escalate tensions with India," he tweeted.

US reactions judged by these tweets etc is quite different from the past..far from being = = it is firmly anti-terror(stani)..
EU (eg German FM is paying visit to terroristan)/ UK are also trying to talk some sense to these guys...

Even Islamabad says..

Threat of further escalation between India, Pakistan over

:
And:
Pakistan Says It’s Cracking Down on Terrorists, Again

The al-Quba mosque and seminary[ Home of JuD offices etc] was, until recently, a hive of activity. The sprawling complex, which sits in a quiet neighborhood of the Pakistani capital, is a center of religious and ideological indoctrination for those wanting to take up arms against Indian forces in Kashmir.

Now, however, the entrance to the seminary is locked. Two uniformed police officers, seated in a black pickup truck and reading newspapers, are stationed outside. The roadside, where there would normally be a gaggle of students, lies empty.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 13 Mar 2019 02:11

Hope, this time, this is not temporary.. but from news sources tell that Pak is taking some action for international communities to see:
>>Officials insist that they are serious about taking action after the latest crisis.
- the government passed a new bureaucratic regulation authorizing the application of UN sanctions on Pakistan-based militant groups (though this new order remains subject to judicial appeal).
- LeT offices in the eastern cities of Lahore and Muridke have also been shut down.
- And the authorities have detained at least 44 people, including the son and brother of Masood Azhar, the JeM chief, and have sealed scores of JeM properties across the country.
( Azhar himself remains a free man, but according to Fawad Chaudhry, Pakistan’s information minister,--the government is considering whether to allow Azhar to be listed on a UN sanctions list, a long-standing demand of India that has been consistently blocked by Pakistan’s ally China.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 13 Mar 2019 02:17

Amber, Pakistan's ISI has no intention of making peace with India. The only viable goal for India is to break Pakistan up into smaller pieces and get PoK back into the fold. Absorbing PoK into the Indian union will also stop the CPEC highway from China to Gwadar port. This is all is easier said than done, but that must be India's end goal. The Pakistani state, as we know it now, must end. It is a festering cancer on India and whose sole purpose is the destruction of our country. Asking their mindset to change, is never going to happen.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 13 Mar 2019 02:49

Meanwhile, according to one Chinese editorial, iron brother is hurt that some in India blames China for it's support of JeM etc..

Some quotes:

China will not pick sides in India-Pakistan disputes. Aiming at easing the two countries’ conflicts and improving the anti-terrorist situation, China will play the role of a mediator and facilitator amid the ongoing tensions,

(No disputed cashmere etc..)

It was irresponsible to blame China for protecting alleged terrorists . --- However, some Indians doubt China’s efforts. Some Indian experts blamed China {rightfully so, if you ask me} for ‘continued protection’ of terrorists who were allegedly based in Pakistan and launched the Pulwama terror attack in February. And many Indian analysts regard China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a geopolitical threat.

Such irresponsible statements are not supported by facts. Foreign ministers of China, Russia, and India held the 16th trilateral meeting on February 27. During the meeting, they vowed to eradicate breeding grounds of terrorism and extremism. In fact, China, Pakistan, and India share common interests in combating terrorism. It is time for India to stop the groundless accusations, ...

[Ok Brfites go easy on China.. they are asking you..

)

More ever please do not do anything against BRI..

India should overcome its prejudices against the BRI as it would boost cooperation and help bring stability to the region. And India should also understand this: Although China supported Pakistan in alleviating poverty and wiping out terrorism, Beijing is not an enemy of New Delhi. Just the opposite: China proposed and launched the BRI, which not only meets India’s needs for infrastructure construction but also helps ease India-Pakistan tensions,

So you see, this state media opinion piece says China will not pick sides in the Pakistan-India dispute as its primary aim is to develop the “poor and backward” Kashmir...onlee...

<link >

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 13 Mar 2019 02:58

I am pretty sure that Pakistan's crackdown on terrorists will be 400% effective. They have had so many crackdowns before that they are well practiced in the art.

Jokes aside, 2 decades of money, arms, cajoling and threatening could not budge Pakistan from its support of Taliban and Unkil was the sole super-power all that time. Close to 7 years of that time, Pakistan was ruled by Musharraf who had absolute control of the bureaucracy, courts and the army and he was unwilling (or unable) to do anything.

Why do people think a Jhappad at Balakhot or threats of FATF will convince Pakistanis to give up the terrorists now?

https://indianexpress.com/article/opini ... n-5619712/

Soon after this author told a prominent Pakistani politician, who has always professed a commitment to India-Pakistan peace, that as the two countries had embarked on a serious and comprehensive engagement, Pakistan should give up its support of terrorist groups acting against India. His reply “Agar hum yeh band kar dein toh aap hamse baat kyon karenge”?

Unkil is in retreat from Afghanistan. Taliban is poised to take over. Interrogation by JeM trained in Balakhot went along the lines of "60% of people who trained there went to afghanistan, 40% went to India". Guess where 100% of them are going to go after Taliban take over? On top of that, guess where all camps are relocating to?

Kandahar hijacking to free Masood Azhar revealed that ISI can use Afghan proxies to support Pakistani terrorists. Pakis must be salivating at that possibility a full 20 years later.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 13 Mar 2019 03:20

From Obama times the US has been trying to exit the middle east and Af-pak.
It no longer needs the middle-east for energy security. It's Shale oil production now exceeds that of the Saudis. Its only stake remaining is to maintain status-quo for Israel

In any case the middle east now needs the west more than the other way around since extraction tech comes from the west.

India and China remain to fight it out for middle east production.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 13 Mar 2019 03:27

Balakot is a warning, to Pakistan, that the gloves are off.
For the moment, I like this hot-simmer-hot-simmer treatment that India is giving them now.
They will militarily and economically run out of steam if this goes on for a very long time

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 13 Mar 2019 03:28

Anujan wrote:I am pretty sure that Pakistan's crackdown on terrorists will be 400% effective. They have had so many crackdowns before that they are well practiced in the art.

...
Why do people think a Jhappad at Balakhot or threats of FATF will convince Pakistanis to give up the terrorists now?

https://indianexpress.com/article/opini ... n-5619712/

Soon after this author told a prominent Pakistani politician, who has always professed a commitment to India-Pakistan peace, that as the two countries had embarked on a serious and comprehensive engagement, Pakistan should give up its support of terrorist groups acting against India. His reply “Agar hum yeh band kar dein toh aap hamse baat kyon karenge”?
Unkil is in retreat from Afghanistan. Taliban is poised to take over. Interrogation by JeM trained in Balakhot went along the lines of "60% of people who trained there went to afghanistan, 40% went to India". Guess where 100% of them are going to go after Taliban take over? On top of that, guess where all camps are relocating to?

Kandahar hijacking to free Masood Azhar revealed that ISI can use Afghan proxies to support Pakistani terrorists. Pakis must be salivating at that possibility a full 20 years later.

From Pakistan's point of view, the sentence in bold (Agar hum yeh band kar dein toh aap hamse baat kyon karenge?) appears to be sound first order thinking. If there is no terrorism, we will never even talk to them. There is nothing that pushes us to do so. Its a different matter that even if there is terrorism, we will never give them Kashmir. Other than the really really stupid ones, which includes 90+% of decision makers in Pakistan, no one can think that India is about the get rid of Kashmir. Having said that, such acts can increase the tensions in social fabric in India.

My conclusion is:
1. India should beat them up and create H&D emergencies at regular intervals to create an incentive for them to refrain from large attacks.
2. While we are building up our strength, we should offer to hold talks with them, that will decide the nature of the talks that will discuss the aperitifs for the first round of discussions on Kashmir. Just like terror must be kept hot at the right temperature, talks must go on, on the right subject.
3. Notably, we should not offer any talks that purport to solve issues between India-Pak, because that will only cause a spectacular in India like in 2009. Every round of talks must end in a stalemate, or move on from the aperitif to the salad menu.

Pakistan has structural problems that cant allow any individual actor in that country, such as the army, civil society , politicians, industrialists, middle class, clergy etc. - to push hard enough to come to peace with India.

Till such time as a restructuring of Pakistan can be done by us, the 'show' must go on.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Mar 2019 04:04

Manish Jain wrote:So we were wondering why Pakis are acting so spooked. Maybe this tweet by Gen Syed Ata Hasnain would throw some light. Maybe just a joke -
https://twitter.com/atahasnain53/status ... 6418099202
You sure Baloch element of SSG has not already revolted. I am in touch with them. They are willing to say Pakistan se hatega Balochistan. Inshallah Khuda unki murad poori kare

UBCN is never wrong...

SSG revolting? Yeah I know they are revolting as in disgusting, but mutiny? From Mushy's own old regiment? Led by Mushy perhaps?

This suggests that the point of pulling PA units out in a hurry from Balochistan was to do it b4 they mutinied? Or were they just going AWOL?

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 13 Mar 2019 04:07

Meanwhile ..
A major Taliban attack in western Afghanistan on Monday came as the group’s negotiators were meeting with American envoys in Doha, Qatar.
Taliban Wipe Out an Afghan Army Company While Talking Peace With the U.S..

Anoop · Post by **Anoop** » 13 Mar 2019 04:11

To disabuse Pakistan of the notion that terrorism can lead to talks, we need to simply refuse talks on any subject until terrorism stops, or at least dramatically drops. We need to turn the Pakistani logic on its head because until we do, they have no incentive to reduce terrorism. So it should be a blanket denial of talks. Our response to terrorism must be economic, diplomatic and military, with the major focus on disrupting financial and logistics arrangements inside India. Just as relentless CI pressure over 2 decades has brought a big reduction in scale and frequency of terrorism in the J&K hinterland, the next phase must be on sustained intelligence to disrupt financial transactions. The effects will be visible much sooner.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 Mar 2019 04:28

Anoop, all this requires political will. Like it or not, there is a huge 5th column in India, which is very Pakistan friendly, as they have no skin in the game and when they do, they demonstrate abject cowardice. The Kongxxxx, the center left groups (Ordinary Man party etc), the Leftists themselves all have huge interest groups which are very pro-Pak, want special status for Pakistan and pander to them, even sometimes believing it will help them electorally in India. Given this, it explains why it needs a person at the top to over throw the consensus. As a result of decades of brainwashing, the Hinduphobia/dislike of anything "native" or common concerns of everyday Indians is palpable. Dhruva Jaishankar has a pdf on brookings of "elite Indian strategic decision makers etc etc" and their views. I recall while 76% of everyday Indians want strong action against Pakistan, only around 13% of these so called decision makers do. Which explains why a Modi or a PVNR can often upset the apple cart, and why they are also so disliked by the "jokers" who often give advice to GOI, like that gasbag PB Mehta or Guha who pretends to the conscience of the nation state etc. These parasites sap the strength of the decision makers. Many work against the state. How else would some media house get photocopied files from the Rafale deal? Modi's critical weakness has been that he didn't go hammer & tongs at this ecosystem and played Prithviraj Chauhan. Unfortunate. IndiraG for all her warts knew when to use state power decisively, Modi is yet to do the same to purge our system of its 5th columnists and allow strong nationalists complete dominion over the nat-sec apparatus versus the gasbag accomodationists.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 13 Mar 2019 04:31

Amber G. wrote:Meanwhile ..
A major Taliban attack in western Afghanistan on Monday came as the group’s negotiators were meeting with American envoys in Doha, Qatar.
Taliban Wipe Out an Afghan Army Company While Talking Peace With the U.S..

It has been reported that Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan has asked the people of FATA and KP NOT to cooperate with the TSPA's campaign to recruit them as irregular levies to fight against India after Balakot. In the meantime, Taliban attacks in Afghanistan have intensified.

I think what is happening is that the Taliban (which is actually many factions) smell opportunity at the impending retreat of the US from Afghanistan... but at the same time, several (probably MOST) factions of Taliban do not TRUST the TSPA/ISI to represent their interests in the Doha talks, or in any post-US Afghan dispensation.

It is like the quandary of the Mahagutterbandhan, where seat sharing will invariably favour one party in any given constituency at the cost of all others who could otherwise have put up a candidate.

We have many different Taliban factions, all distrustful of each other and of Slumbad. If Slumbad is given the reins and controls who gets what prize in Afghanistan after the US leaves... which would be an outcome of successful Doha talks... then there will be some winners (the sarkari favourites) and MANY losers among the Taliban factions who have fought for 18 long years. Like Patton vs. Zhukov grappling for influence over the remains of the Axis empire, it is time for a reckoning between these sides.

Accordingly, the best move for the "disaffected Taliban" (those factions who do NOT believe that Slumbad will cut them in on a fair power-sharing deal after the US leaves) is to embarrass Slumbad and sabotage the Doha talks. If they can carry out multiple high-casualty attacks against the Kabul govt, even against US mil assets in Afghanistan, it shows that Slumbad cannot deliver an easy or dignified exit for the US from Afghanistan, and undermines Slumbad's credibility as an interlocutor for the Doha talks.

Op Balakot may have been the straw that broke this camel's back. Let us say that before Balakot, 25% of the Taliban factions did not trust Slumbad/TSPA/ISI to deliver for them, but 75% were going along with TSPA/ISI's agenda because they saw TSPA/ISI as powerful godfather ghazis. After a jhaapad like Balakot that rendered TSPA helpless to respond... and you can bet all the Taliban fellows know EXACTLY what went down on Jaba Top... the aura of ghazi credibility has evaporated completely from the TSPA/ISI. After all what made one Taliban faction stronger than the other was TSPA/ISI support... and now it stands revealed that TSPA/ISI is completely toothless against the Hanood!

Based on this, I would not be surprised if the Taliban factions' confidence in Slumbad's "good offices" has now moved to something like 95% against and 5% for. We have torn the burqa off the biggest Kabila of them all.

I think Balakot was (among many other things) an instrument to ensure that all the double-dealing and Haqqani-supporting and Osama-hiding that Slumbad did during the "War on Terror" will be for nought. The US wants to leave AfPak but it wants to leave AfPak like the British left India... with a Pakhtoon "Pakistan" of its own, to form a festering thorn in Pakjabi Slumbad's side for decades to come.

Anoop · Post by **Anoop** » 13 Mar 2019 04:35

Karan, yes, I totally agree on the need for political will to sustain the pressure. And certainly until now, only 1 political party has demonstrated it. If the govt changes, I expect a return to the old ways of doing things, which have not worked. This has the potential to work, especially disrupting the financial dealings and uncovering sympathizers whether over ground or under ground.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 13 Mar 2019 04:42

"Till such time as a restructuring of Pakistan can be done by us, the 'show' must go on."

yes and the CPEC show must go on too

Sabyasachi · Post by **Sabyasachi** » 13 Mar 2019 04:50

https://twitter.com/Defence_360/status/ ... 5552924672

This proves that 200 or more died.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 Mar 2019 04:55

Rudradev wrote:Op Balakot may have been the straw that broke this camel's back. Let us say that before Balakot, 25% of the Taliban factions did not trust Slumbad/TSPA/ISI to deliver for them, but 75% were going along with TSPA/ISI's agenda because they saw TSPA/ISI as powerful godfather ghazis. After a jhaapad like Balakot that rendered TSPA helpless to respond... and you can bet all the Taliban fellows know EXACTLY what went down on Jaba Top... the aura of ghazi credibility has evaporated completely from the TSPA/ISI. After all what made one Taliban faction stronger than the other was TSPA/ISI support... and now it stands revealed that TSPA/ISI is completely toothless against the Hanood!

No, the next day's A2A crap unfortunately took away a lot of our perception gains because the Pakistanis played the media game as expected and we did nothing. Again, a half-way house from the GOI. Trying to posture as peacemakers internationally and avoid crossing the Pak establishments H&D redlines.
I'll posit above "straw that breaks camels back" will only occur if our strikes against the JEM etc are routine & constantly demonstrate PAF/PA/PN unwillingness and incompetence. Or if our occasional strike is milked to the max.
We need to own each & every thappad and game out all possible consequences and how to take advantage. The post Balakot air battle PR game has been badly run. Whosoever advised Modi to do that, to "de-escalate" needs to be given marching orders ASAP. A huge chunk of the extreme precision & capability demonstrated by the services was not taken advantage of properly. We should have gamed for 2-3 levels of escalation beyond what happened at Balakot & openly mocked Pakistani capabilities at every level. And to do that, Modi needed to have a dedicated DM at MOD much earlier & capability accretion given a much larger focus rather than just domestic policies. The loss of Parrikar was felt keenly but more importantly the delay between his appointment and then after he left, the next person. Continuity is important. We have to get out of the emergency purchase mindset and build up a plethora of capabilities at every level. Its been 4 years now since Modi/Doval are in charge, why aren't Balochistan or NWFP full blown war zones yet...

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 13 Mar 2019 04:58

Anoop wrote:To disabuse Pakistan of the notion that terrorism can lead to talks, we need to simply refuse talks on any subject until terrorism stops, or at least dramatically drops. We need to turn the Pakistani logic on its head because until we do, they have no incentive to reduce terrorism. So it should be a blanket denial of talks. Our response to terrorism must be economic, diplomatic and military, with the major focus on disrupting financial and logistics arrangements inside India. Just as relentless CI pressure over 2 decades has brought a big reduction in scale and frequency of terrorism in the J&K hinterland, the next phase must be on sustained intelligence to disrupt financial transactions. The effects will be visible much sooner.

Good summary of the diplomatic policies and defensive security measures India should take post Balakot.

On the offensive front I think there will be good news (for India) and bad news (for many of us BRF jingo mil-heads).

I strongly believe that 99% of the offensive measures India will take, from now on, are going to be under the surface. Covert ops involving Baloch groups and Pashtun groups (including, potentially, many factions of the Taliban who will find themselves arrayed against Islamabad's preferred "new order" for a post-US Afghanistan). Pakistan will find that the "Strategic Depth" of such an Afghanistan is actually an excavation of their OWN territory and so-vir-ginity.

Just think about how much intel went into Balakot. Some people here argued it was not a "pre-emptive" strike as the GOI initially stated. Bloody hell, of course it was. Pulwama was the first time a SVBIED had been used in J&K. That was our signal to pull the trigger on something that intel ops had been supporting for a long, long time. We knew that an army of JeM pigs trained to use SVBIED tactics was being trained. We knew where they were being trained, and who was training them. We knew when they would all be at that specific location in droves. And we made sure they never got out of bed in one piece.

Doval ji has restored, perhaps more than restored, our covert capabilities in Pakland that were decimated by IK Gujral 22 years ago, and ignored by various governments until five years ago. The complete blackout of information coming out of Balochistan right now is another indicator of this. Much, much more is going down than meets the public eye.

And it will keep going down as the US leaves Afghanistan and many many groups perceive a vacuum to be filled in both Afghanistan and all of western/southwestern Pakistan.

Bad news for us nanha mujahids because 99% of this, we will never see happening. We will only observe the end results and be left guessing as to how they were achieved. No dogfights, no tank battles, no nothing... the vast majority of the time. And the 1% of the time when we do see a ground, air, or naval strike against some Paki target... you can be sure that it's also happening in the service of, and in perfect coordination with, the continuously ongoing covert war that's being waged. EVERY strike by ISI in Kashmir or elsewhere in India will be met with multiple events of covert and subconventional retaliation within Pakistan.

That's the era we live in now.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Mar 2019 05:04

Karan M wrote:Anoop, all this requires political will. Like it or not, there is a huge 5th column in India, which is very Pakistan friendly, as they have no skin in the game and when they do, they demonstrate abject cowardice. The Kongxxxx, the center left groups (Ordinary Man party etc), the Leftists themselves all have huge interest groups which are very pro-Pak, want special status for Pakistan and pander to them, even sometimes believing it will help them electorally in India. Given this, it explains why it needs a person at the top to over throw the consensus. As a result of decades of brainwashing, the Hinduphobia/dislike of anything "native" or common concerns of everyday Indians is palpable. Dhruva Jaishankar has a pdf on brookings of "elite Indian strategic decision makers etc etc" and their views. I recall while 76% of everyday Indians want strong action against Pakistan, only around 13% of these so called decision makers do. Which explains why a Modi or a PVNR can often upset the apple cart, and why they are also so disliked by the "jokers" who often give advice to GOI, like that gasbag PB Mehta or Guha who pretends to the conscience of the nation state etc. These parasites sap the strength of the decision makers. Many work against the state. How else would some media house get photocopied files from the Rafale deal? Modi's critical weakness has been that he didn't go hammer & tongs at this ecosystem and played Prithviraj Chauhan. Unfortunate. IndiraG for all her warts knew when to use state power decisively, Modi is yet to do the same to purge our system of its 5th columnists and allow strong nationalists complete dominion over the nat-sec apparatus versus the gasbag accomodationists.

I read the same survey and wondered who these gas bags were and whose interests they represented?
It sure does not look like Indian interests.
BTW these are not the real decision makers but the so called seminar circuit chatteratti.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 13 Mar 2019 05:06

Karan M wrote:[
No, the next day's A2A crap unfortunately took away a lot of our perception gains because the Pakistanis played the media game as expected and we did nothing. Again, a half-way house from the GOI. Trying to posture as peacemakers internationally and avoid crossing the Pak establishments H&D redlines.
.

Sorry, I don't buy that. "Media game" is for people who consume the (electronic) media or interact on social media. I'm talking about the actual Taliban, not Clifton-based clowns who watch Lal Topi or NDTV or the New York Times.

These guys are acutely aware through their own networks of everything the ISI is doing, Pakistan Army is doing, and rival groups are doing. Many of them probably had former colleagues, friends, even family members who joined the sarkari JeM and got fried on Feb 26th. No amount of Australian or Canadian laptop-analysts making blogposts about "satellite pictures" will fool them. No amount of barking from the usual suspects on Indian TV channels either.

The game has already been changed. The invincible image of the conventional Pakistan military, cultivated by massacring FATA or Baloch villagers with F16 bombardments during Zarb-e-Azb etc., has suffered an unprecedented blow with this particular audience. The next strike could fall anywhere and Islamabad can do nothing about it... that seed of doubt has been planted inextricably.

Not that I wouldn't welcome the lesson being regularly repeated and driven home. But don't discount the message that has already gone through based on ISPR's weak-kneed shenanigans.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 Mar 2019 05:06

Rudradev,
I would love to believe what you are stating, but the fact the Pakistani Army is pulling units out of Balochistan & NWFP to the IB shows they can, which means the covert capabilities haven't been built up yet. Similarly, this "cold war" can anyday become hot, for which we should be prepared already. We are midway there. Nowhere as weak as the NYT or local propah-g*dus allege, but not where we need to be either. Yes, its unfair that 70 years of detritus has been dumped in front of one man to clean up, but it is what it is. Modi has to clean the Augean stables. There is no other way. VK Singh says it out well here: https://www.outlookindia.com/website/st ... dia/326584

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 Mar 2019 05:12

Rudradev wrote:Sorry, I don't buy that. "Media game" is for people who consume the (electronic) media or interact on social media. I'm talking about the actual Taliban, not Clifton-based clowns who watch Lal Topi or NDTV or the New York Times.

These guys are acutely aware through their own networks of everything the ISI is doing, Pakistan Army is doing, and rival groups are doing. Many of them probably had former colleagues, friends, even family members who joined the sarkari JeM and got fried on Feb 26th. No amount of Australian or Canadian laptop-analysts making blogposts about "satellite pictures" will fool them. No amount of barking from the usual suspects on Indian TV channels either.

The game has already been changed. The invincible image of the conventional Pakistan military, cultivated by massacring FATA or Baloch villagers with F16 bombardments during Zarb-e-Azb etc., has suffered an unprecedented blow with this particular audience. The next strike could fall anywhere and Islamabad can do nothing about it... that seed of doubt has been planted inextricably.

Not that I wouldn't welcome the lesson being regularly repeated and driven home. But don't discount the message that has already gone through based on ISPR's weak-kneed shenanigans.

Rudradev, you are fervently arguing against the facts on the ground.

Has LOC gone quiet? Has Pakistan suddenly realized its grave mistake in taking on India & stopped its cross border firing?

Have the umpteen jihadis waiting across the border magically disappeared, prompting us to draw down our huge RR & COIN reserves in the Valley and reorient the IA posture as well? You know the answer there too.

Third, the invincible image of the Pakistani Army was *never there* vis a vis the top guys in any Taliban/JEM etc. The Pakistani Army survives around being stronger against its domestic talib audience than with India. For that the resources they get, are via the Pakistani Awam who continue to think they are invincible.

Now, only if the JEM guys get hit regularly & our head-takers make regular forays across the IB, not just for "jawabi karwahee" cleared by some guy in Delhi carefully wondering about "nooclear redlines", then things will change. Those domestic big guys will no longer be intimidated by PA, as there is a new ranger in town and he is more brutal than PA.

This means the hits have to be constant and unrelenting. That is *policy* demonstrated on the ground.

What we have yet, are welcome opening steps to a change in policy. Still opening steps. Not a complete shift in policy. Modi is still talking retaliation. The day he stops having to even mention it, that is the day we know our people are finally moving beyond lazy a$$ cowardice of the worst kind that they have demonstrated since decades in taking terrorism on our soil for decades and not even attempting to hold the PA establishment accountable.