Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Karan M
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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 13 Mar 2019 05:17

ramana wrote:I read the same survey and wondered who these gas bags were and whose interests they represented?
It sure does not look like Indian interests.
BTW these are not the real decision makers but the so called seminar circuit chatteratti.


Ramana sir, surely you are seeing a vast amount of our "decision makers" on social media. You can judge how many of them think the same way as BR jingos about Pakistan as versus repeating same old leftist shibboleths & pouring venom on any strong response. Many still mince words, and do an equal equal at every opportunity.

A guy like VK Singh remains an outlier. The seminar circuit chatterati, ran India via the NAC and our meek meek PM at the time let it be so.
That survey, including its focus on "economics", "ties with Khan etc", "engage with Pak" seems cent per cent accurate vis a vis how many of our folks think.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 13 Mar 2019 05:36

To me what is striking is that at Balakot, Jaba Top, the location and training facilities and storage structures that attracted SPICE 2K all tell me its a jihadi camp similar the to the Alamut Castle (Assassins Castle) in Iran that was razed to reduce their menace.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alamut_Castle

In addition to RD's comments on the information gathering, just think of the shivers the SPICE package sent. And only one of them had the penetrator model was the initial information.
That set off the panic to re-apportion the inventory of TSP clown jewels.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 13 Mar 2019 05:56

Ramana, you have mail.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Julian_Bashir » 13 Mar 2019 06:00

Another noob question for the gurus.

How should our tactics change for the upcoming summer in Jammu and Kashmir in the Balakot backdrop ?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby yensoy » 13 Mar 2019 06:08

Anoop wrote:To disabuse Pakistan of the notion that terrorism can lead to talks, we need to simply refuse talks on any subject until terrorism stops, or at least dramatically drops. We need to turn the Pakistani logic on its head because until we do, they have no incentive to reduce terrorism. So it should be a blanket denial of talks.


That's already happening. For the next regime (same party or otherwise) it is the status quo. Even anti-BJP voices are beginning to see wisdom in disengagement with the pakis till terrorism is stopped, for instance see the youtube interview of Moeed Yusuf by Happymon Jacob. The pakis have brought this situation on themselves, for they have pushed ahead terrorist attacks even when there were conversations happening and progress being made towards peace, not once but in multiple instances.

Then the second question is whom do we talk to even if we wanted to? Since it is widely accepted in the establishment (see for instance Jaitley's interview from yesterday) that pakfauj controls their India policy, talking to civilian politicians is meaningless - and our civilian leadership will certainly not talk to their military when there is a fig leaf of a civilian government in power in pak (and of course our military does not have the authority to discuss foreign policy issues with pakfauj).

All in all, no talks, only beatings from time to time.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 13 Mar 2019 06:35

It is not yet the status quo. It will be the status quo, when non BJP guys demonstrate via their actions that they are indeed interested in natsec beyond votebanking and comments like "Kargil was BJPs war" and trying to signal to a domestic Indian constituency by going easy on Pakistan, while making comments on Masood Azhar ji, Osama ji, Batla House was a fake encounter, 26/11 was a RSS ki saazish etc.
Till the day Indians irrespective of whatever loony tunes idealogy stop pandering to such forces and there is a huge electoral price to pay, and others besides, we will continue to have these problems.

Even with BJP itself, there were enough kadi ninda types, never mind Shri ABV's poetic oratory after deploying IA for months altogether without a proper end game in mind.

Our entire establishment needs to evolve towards getting a bit more courageous when it comes to dealing with Pakistan and not tieing itself in knots over "log kya kahenge". Good thing is the process has begun, whether it will be retained and put in place .. depends. I fully wish for a 2nd Modi term to make this sort of policy a given, but lets see, fingers crossed. Right now we have intense border ops, trans LOC ops, gradual modernisation of forces, and 3 ops over 4 years. We need to do far far more.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 13 Mar 2019 06:36

It would be so ironic if a pakhtoon led neo pakistan were to be born in afghanistan to “block” the real pakistan

Must be their worst nightmare

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Anoop » 13 Mar 2019 06:42

Karan, it's not just the chatterati, the real problems lie with wven the so called mainstream political parties in J&K like NC and PDP. In some cases, they profiteer from the same financial networks and in other cases they are loath to take on the Hurriyat or JeI for fear of losing local support. There has to be a prolonged period of Governor's rule during which the financial networks must be uprooted and never allowed to reestablish. Essentially this should be the NIA, ED and Income Tax departments top priorities for a few years running.

I agree that military action should be repeated as.and when we can, but I also don't think that RD is wrong about the game changing.. At least, I don't think that the Pak troop movement and the hot LoC proves otherwise. Pak had to take the action it has, simply for domestic reasons, to.reassure both the public and the tanzeems. However, I don't think they can repeat or sustain mobilizations whenever India responds. That initiative should remain with us and it should be repeated as and every opportunity presents itself. One unfortunate aspect of our policy so far has been that our public is willing to bear losses since we have suffered so long without responding. But for the Pakistani public and tanzeems, this is uncharted territory. It's now time for the PA to be on the horns of a dilemma- how far can they push India and not expect a response? And how can they preempt Indian response by prior preparation when India is willing to wait for a a good window of opportunity to respond at a time and place of its choosing? I think this Govt has earned the patience of the Indian public, which is what gives them the option to wait, and that in turn upsets Pakistani calculations.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 13 Mar 2019 06:50

Anoop, its not just J&K, but whole of India. These networks run deep in many of our parties. I hope (wish!) a 2nd Modi term sees this taken on, and broken.

At least, I don't think that the Pak troop movement and the hot LoC proves otherwise. Pak had to take the action it has, simply for domestic reasons, to.reassure both the public and the tanzeems.

The point is they are able to. When they are unable to, or unwilling to, despite domestic consequences, then we have proof that indeed we have crossed a rubicon of deterrence, that the punishment we inflict is so dissuasive, that they won't risk it.

However, I don't think they can repeat or sustain mobilizations whenever India responds.

Point is, it won't be cheap for us either. We have to find ways around this as well.

That initiative should remain with us and it should be repeated as and every opportunity presents itself.

Exactly. We should be hitting them repeatedly, and constantly. Not just waiting for a Pulwama to occur!

That is the point. We are so happy that some "jawabi karvahee" has been done, but at the end of the day, it is still proportionate retaliation. We should be at the level where every day, the PA is fighting for its survival in myriad COIN ops, its getting hammered at the border (routinely not as retaliation), and its economy is being squeezed, we keep escalating as we wish & hitting within Pak.

When we do that, then the Pakistanis will beg us to stop and perhaps even mean it.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Amber G. » 13 Mar 2019 07:04

As I posted before here is what Bolton said:
John Bolton (Verified account) @AmbJohnBolton
Mar 11

Spoke with Pakistani FM Qureshi to encourage meaningful steps against JeM and other terrorist groups operating from Pakistan. The FM assured me that Pakistan would deal firmly with all terrorists and will continue steps to deescalate tensions with India.



Qureshi assured John Bolton that Pakistan would deal firmly with all terrorists just like the way they dealt with Osama Bin Laden :rotfl:

Okay, even I could not have predicted the extreme pakiness of Qureshi... The head line from Pak is: (No I am not making it up)
Here is the Paki version
US security advisor John Bolton concurs with Pakistan’s apprehensions about Indian misadventure


Wow...
Also they are saying:
he minister told the US national security advisor that Pakistan would send an official delegation to India on March 14, 2019 to discuss {Does India know about that??}. He said that Pakistan was also ready to continue weekly contacts at the Military Operations Directorate level.... And they have sent the Paki HC to India back too}

Last edited by Amber G. on 13 Mar 2019 11:08, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Mar 2019 07:22

The video is striking. No full translations available? Like every word? Linguistic standards of the forum are way down since the glory days of Pingreji. This is what u get for listening to the anti-Pingreji dullards who keep :(( :((

Wonder who posted it on the 'Net, and what is happening in behind the camera, and why there is a camera pointed at the audience. Assuming that the video is genuine, the number of uniformed PA there leaves no doubt. Many of the beards are openly weeping/ wiping their eyes. Good act if fake; the kids' grief at least seems genuine. With kids that small, there must be wimmens in the background, or maybe they are grieving behind the camera. Must be dead bodies behind the camera.

Ignore the 200 number, except that the number is AT LEAST 200.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Ankit Desai » 13 Mar 2019 07:37

Ankit Desai wrote:I asked it earlier. Let me try again

Any news about other two targets ?

Total 12 Mirages took off to drop payloads with Su30 & MIGs for air support.

Each Mirage was carrying 1000kg bomb to be dropped. There is no news saying Balakot was hit by 12 bombs. Each news was saying 4-5 bombs were dropped.

So other Mirages dropped their payload some where else. On the day of Balakot, news channels were talking about 3-4 targets so what did happen to at least other two targets ?

-Ankit


Answering my own question. Please start watching from 53:47 Nirmala Sitharaman's interview on AAJ TAK and many more answers.



-Ankit

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Amber G. » 13 Mar 2019 07:51

Photo shared by a Twitter user named Omar Farooq with a caption "Somewhere at a Pakistani tea stall." :

Image

The urdu part says:
"Aisi chai ki dushman ko bhi dost banaye" Translation: Tea [so fine] that it can make a friend out of a foe.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby stryker » 13 Mar 2019 08:10

https://www.dawn.com/news/1469204

Pakistan test fires indigenously developed extended range smart weapon. Coudnit stop laughing. This is a country that doesn’t make a pin. They are shocked that the UAF can put a bomb through any roof or door in Pakistan and in many cases without crossing the border. Anything Iin Lahore can be hit without entering Pak territory and only need to cross in for a few minutes to strike Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Trying to rally the demoralized Pak troops and population by making this announcement. Chances of Pak making a weapon like Spice is close to zero.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Sanju » 13 Mar 2019 08:16

Ankit Desai wrote:<snip>

Answering my own question. Please start watching from 53:47 Nirmala Sitharaman's interview on AAJ TAK and many more answers.

<snip link>

-Ankit


Thanks Ankit for the link to the interview.

It is a must watch for jingos to understand:

1) The capability of the RM. A fantastic speaker, clear, concise and to the point answers.

2) The actions taken under this Govt. and specifically under this RM.

3) Points to use to convince the NOTA warriors - both friends and kin.

4) To understand what we will be missing if this Govt. does not return. This is what we have been waiting and wanting. It is literally on the nation's fingertips.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Rudradev » 13 Mar 2019 08:40

KaranM wrote:Rudradev, you are fervently arguing against the facts on the ground.


Yaar, what ARE the facts on the ground? As far as I can make out from posts in this thread (and other related ones), neither you nor I nor anyone else here has much of an inkling what the specific facts on the ground truly are at present (a good thing by the way, because people who actually know are duty-bound to keep it to themselves).

We simply do our best, sifting through whatever public domain information is there for this or that scrap of news. But everything beyond that is guesswork and speculation on our part.

How good is the speculation? No way of knowing. I suspect it is like trying to reconstruct the Mahabharata given one random word per every ten slokas, with an unknown % of the given words being incorrect.

Has LOC gone quiet? Has Pakistan suddenly realized its grave mistake in taking on India & stopped its cross border firing?


Assuredly not, but what does that have to do with the Taliban?

Since you mention it, LOC is a great example of the information blackout we're operating in. Everyone on social media says it is hot. GOTSP and foreign governments say it's de-escalating; GOI says different things at different times. Somebody tweets about Pakistani 155 mm gunfire, then someone else about Indian missiles. Rajnath Singh refers obliquely to a "third strike". Drones appear along IB, some are shot down. No report AT ALL of what was hit in Muzzafarabad or Chakhoti on 26/2. In India it's business as usual, Pak airspace remains closed. This is one weird war... but it's definitely a war of some kind going on, just below the threshold of conventional declaration.

In any case, it would be preposterous to think that one Balakot airstrike would magically scare everyone in Pakistan so badly that LOC would suddenly become peaceful. On the contrary... Balakot made it so that the Tanzeemi handlers on the other side have to put up their entire ante or risk losing everything. They HAVE to infiltrate as many jihadis as fast as they can before recruits lose their nerve or even turn on the handlers. No wonder internet in POK is down... the last thing JeM, HM cadres on that side want is for WhatsApp forwards of the post-airstrike pics to start doing the rounds. Pak Army too is under pressure from Tanzeemi leadership to maximize infiltration of whatever assets were there before the truth gets out and morale is completely sapped. For my money, THAT's why they are pulling out all the stops to give covering fire. And, as it appears (though no one knows for sure) getting pasted for it.

But the truth WILL come out. This is the information age. Pakistan Army cannot stop it as they covered their tracks in 71 and Kargil. In the following days, weeks, months, the evidence will come to the cell phone or favourite cyber-cafe of every abdul considering a career in suicide bombing. As for people as high up as the top leadership of various Taliban factions... I will bet they already know everything there is to know about the damage done in Balakot. By, of all people, the Hanoods.
Have the umpteen jihadis waiting across the border magically disappeared, prompting us to draw down our huge RR & COIN reserves in the Valley and reorient the IA posture as well? You know the answer there too.


Only to be expected when you kick the hornet's nest. That is why you have lots of DDT in store ahead of time. There was a surge of 100 companies of CAPF into the valley on the night of the strike, anticipating exactly this.

Still don't understand why Balakot could have been expected NOT to result in a hotter COIN situation in J&K. Whatever stops there are will be pulled out, and the terrorists already in the valley will either surrender or fight like cornered animals. No other choice for them.

And again, the cannon-fodder currently being squelched in the valley are not who I was talking about re: Afghanistan.

Third, the invincible image of the Pakistani Army was *never there* vis a vis the top guys in any Taliban/JEM etc. The Pakistani Army survives around being stronger against its domestic talib audience than with India. For that the resources they get, are via the Pakistani Awam who continue to think they are invincible.


Fair enough, not "invincible", but certainly TSPA had an image of being the Top Kabila between the Indus and Iran. Zarb-e-Azb, Radd-ul-Fasad were designed to cultivate exactly this image. TSPA is as jihadi as any Taliban faction or Pakjabi Tanzeem, but with an overwhelming advantage in heavy weaponry, artillery, and air-power. Combined with a total disregard for collateral damage and civilian casualties, they were able to clear North Waziristan of all but their preferred Sarkari Tanzeems through sheer brute force in the 2014-17 period. Unkil collaborated with them to some extent, providing intel from drones etc.

In effect the TSPA managed to establish itself as unbeatable vis-a-vis Quetta Shura or any of the Talib groups. The end result of Radd-ul-Fasad was that anti-Slumbad Talibs either came back to ISI control (mostly signing up to join Jaish-e-Mohammed, major cross-pollination happened there)... or else joined ISIS affilitates and other non-Taliban groups in Afghanistan. The TTP that once menaced Pakistani territory in Swat valley was smashed. Sarkari Taliban like the Haqqanis were in any case pro-Slumbad. The neutral (bet-hedging) Taliban factions, however, accepted for the moment that Pakistan was too strong and too brutal to challenge openly... and fell in line.

THIS was a key step to Slumbad convincing both the Taliban factional bigwigs and the US that Pakistan alone could compel the Taliban to the table at the Doha talks.

Will it hold once it becomes incontrovertibly obvious what India did to the JeM (which, as SSridhar and others have noted, is full of former TTP)? News travels fast in the FATA. Note especially where we chose to strike them... in KP, the Pashtun hinterland. There was a message in all of that. Taliban will know for a fact that TSPA and ISI cannot guarantee them protection anywhere within Pakistan's borders (a red-line that even the mighty Unkil, with the sole exception of Abbotabad, always respected). Their anger will be directed squarely at TSPA and ISI... building up rapidly on whatever underlying distrust and resentment may have been there before.

The results will be fun to see. I suspect they will emerge after a few weeks or months in full steam. However, the fact that some Taliban groups are already (as early as Feb 28th!) carrying out intensified attacks on Afghan and US installations, basically trying to blow a hole in the Doha talks, is already giving some indication of what is to come.

Now, only if the JEM guys get hit regularly & our head-takers make regular forays across the IB, not just for "jawabi karwahee" cleared by some guy in Delhi carefully wondering about "nooclear redlines", then things will change. Those domestic big guys will no longer be intimidated by PA, as there is a new ranger in town and he is more brutal than PA.

This means the hits have to be constant and unrelenting. That is *policy* demonstrated on the ground.

What we have yet, are welcome opening steps to a change in policy. Still opening steps. Not a complete shift in policy. Modi is still talking retaliation. The day he stops having to even mention it, that is the day we know our people are finally moving beyond lazy a$$ cowardice of the worst kind that they have demonstrated since decades in taking terrorism on our soil for decades and not even attempting to hold the PA establishment accountable.


Again, sir, I submit that we don't know enough. Official Delhi will always... ALWAYS... claim that it is being responsible, keeping collateral damage in mind, respecting nuclear redlines and whatnot. For example right now there could be anything at all happening on the LOC, in Sri Ganganagar, in Kutch, and everywhere in between. Not all of this is jawabi karwahee. Not all of this is admitted in public (of course, otherwise we would know it). Some of it may never be admitted. All we will have is occasional cryptic affirmations from the services that "operations are still in progress". Bus.

In the process, are constant and unrelenting hits being suffered by the Pakis? Are our head-takers racking up a score on the other side of LOC, or even IB? We have to live with the fact that the Modi Govt (or any govt) may never, ever make an official policy declaration that accurately reflects what they're doing.

So, as you say, the "day he stops having to even mention it" may have already come. He barely at all mentioned the Balakot raid itself. He isn't mentioning a word about what's happening now. Doesn't mean we can assume it isn't happening. The jihadi who barely escapes it with scorched beard and shrapnel in his rectum may be the only one who knows for sure.
Last edited by Rudradev on 13 Mar 2019 09:31, edited 7 times in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby yensoy » 13 Mar 2019 08:58

stryker wrote:https://www.dawn.com/news/1469204
Pakistan test fires indigenously developed extended range smart weapon. Coudnit stop laughing.


Are these the drones that we are seeing lately? They could be launched from the bandar... both being Chinese after all.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Amber G. » 13 Mar 2019 09:06


Pakistan test fires indigenously developed extended range smart weapon....Coudnit stop laughing.

My sources say they already had AAM-RAM (for F-solah's) which did not scare the enemy so this is KHAS-RAM.
(Those who do not understand Pakistani-Milatry-language might not get the significance, but that's okay :mrgreen: )

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Amber G. » 13 Mar 2019 09:08

Ankit Desai wrote:. Please start watching from 53:47 Nirmala Sitharaman's interview on AAJ TAK and many more answers.

youtube>>> c2a_XuZzp9g

-Ankit

Thanks for posting it. Whole interview is worth watching.

For me, critical part was what I was thinking.. but RM has articulated it pretty nicely...

Balkot was NOT just a reaction/retaliation to Pulwama. Definitely not one time thingie... ANY time there is intelligence, there will be pre-emptive strike if India needs it to stop a terror attack.

Pakistan could have stopped the Balkot .. they had a few week after Pulwama to clean those terrorist camp. They did not do it so India has to do that.
Last edited by Amber G. on 13 Mar 2019 09:17, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby SaiK » 13 Mar 2019 09:12

Did Disha ji posted this earlier.. if so just delete this. Awesome technical details here.
https://mediuml.com/@sameerjoshi73/hell ... d607efb854
Did the IAF SPICE 2000s strike at the target — Yes, they did.
This assessment is based on the science of it all, which can be debated by explosive experts for its worth. The Indian Air Force has done its job; let’s not overreact to anything and everything of it. One day we will know what happened below that roof.
So when the Indian Air Chief says ‘We hit the targets,’ believe me — he means serious business!
To the men in blue, Hell For Leather !!! And to the the naysayers, its not over yet……

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Amber G. » 13 Mar 2019 09:24

One thing people have not mentioned it too much here or in other media.. but India now has MUCH better intel with satellites, electronics surveillance, and just tremendous technical abilities.

India (and some other nations, whom India shared the info) may have the class roster of those in madarasa.. how many in each class.. cellphone pings.. etc..

RM has said that India is aware of the identity of F-16 pilot(s), for example.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby schinnas » 13 Mar 2019 09:25

Amber G. wrote:
Ankit Desai wrote:. Please start watching from 53:47 Nirmala Sitharaman's interview on AAJ TAK and many more answers.

youtube>>> c2a_XuZzp9g

-Ankit

Thanks for posting it. Whole interview is worth watching.

For me, critical part was what I was thinking.. but RM has articulated it pretty nicely...

Balkot was NOT just a reaction/retaliation to Pulwama. Definitely not one time thingie... ANY time there is intelligence, there will be pre-emptive strike if India needs it to stop a terror attack.

Pakistan could have stopped the Balkot .. they had a few week after Pulwama to clean those terrorist camp. They did not do it so India has to do that.


I wonder why India is not demanding compensation to recover the cost of our police action in Balakot and PoK to establish law and order with support of IAF. We are fully justified in our pre emptive joint police+IAF action in PoK as it is after all Indian territory.

However, India needs to be compensated for having to clean up Balakot. So a very minimum Pakistan needs to be the bill for $24M (2M per plane raid + precision munition) and take iirecoverable steps to curb terrorism before India can restart even track thoo.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Amber G. » 13 Mar 2019 09:38

SaiK wrote:Did Disha ji posted this earlier.. if so just delete this. Awesome technical details here.

If you are having trouble reaching the site here it is again: <link>

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby khan » 13 Mar 2019 09:43

Ankit Desai wrote:
Ankit Desai wrote:I asked it earlier. Let me try again

Any news about other two targets ?

Total 12 Mirages took off to drop payloads with Su30 & MIGs for air support.

Each Mirage was carrying 1000kg bomb to be dropped. There is no news saying Balakot was hit by 12 bombs. Each news was saying 4-5 bombs were dropped.

So other Mirages dropped their payload some where else. On the day of Balakot, news channels were talking about 3-4 targets so what did happen to at least other two targets ?

-Ankit


Answering my own question. Please start watching from 53:47 Nirmala Sitharaman's interview on AAJ TAK and many more answers.



-Ankit

My guess is the other 2 air-strikes were decoys or aborts.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Rudradev » 13 Mar 2019 10:38

Well, look at what's leaking out already. Despite TSPA keeping a blackout on internet, shutting down mobile services, etc. As I said, this is the information age... they can't escape the reality of Balakot as they did 1971 or Kargil.

https://twitter.com/Defence_360/status/ ... 24672?s=19

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Amber G. » 13 Mar 2019 10:43

Meanwhile India's Foreign secretary Gohkle is in US for hi-level talk with US SOS etc.. in answer to one question, US state dept spokesperson said:
"I would say that the United States and China share a mutual interest in achieving regional stability and peace, and that a failure to designate Azhar would run counter to this goal.

8) 8)

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby vimal » 13 Mar 2019 10:51

Rudradev wrote:Well, look at what's leaking out already. Despite TSPA keeping a blackout on internet, shutting down mobile services, etc. As I said, this is the information age... they can't escape the reality of Balakot as they did 1971 or Kargil.

https://twitter.com/Defence_360/status/ ... 24672?s=19


The pak fauji speaking at the beginning of the video seems to have the name Faisal.
If we look at the video carefully, we might find the names of other ones.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Aditya_V » 13 Mar 2019 11:05

We should somehow contact these people and spread the Rumour that the PAF didnt defend them since they did not wear uniform.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby khan » 13 Mar 2019 11:12

Shiv Aroor thinks that the Balakot 200 casualty video is a fake: https://twitter.com/shivaroor/status/11 ... 14210?s=21

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Jay » 13 Mar 2019 11:26

Rudradev wrote:Well, look at what's leaking out already. Despite TSPA keeping a blackout on internet, shutting down mobile services, etc. As I said, this is the information age... they can't escape the reality of Balakot as they did 1971 or Kargil.

https://twitter.com/Defence_360/status/ ... 24672?s=19


Let's not jump the gun. To me, this video does not prove anything and it looks like a routine video of an officer rank paying a visit to a dead soldiers family. Personally, I do not think PA gives enough shit to a jihadi life so as to pay a visit to his village/family and console the abbajaan.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby disha » 13 Mar 2019 11:29

khan wrote:My guess is the other 2 air-strikes were decoys or aborts.


There was this ammunition dump targetted. I think Chilkote or something like that.

---

I do find it odd that Bakistan closed its airspace for several days (almost weeks). There is more than meets the eye. It is not a case of conserving fuel.

I think other operations were also on going post-balakot and India had a free run after it downed F-16. For all practical reasons, India might chose not to disclose it and talk about it at right moment.

Remember the hounds of baskerville? paraphrasing - "It is not the question of the dog that barks, it is the question of the dog that did not bark!

Apologies to dogs for equating Hafeez Suar to the dog (that did not bark)

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/pakistan-blocks-un-team-from-interviewing-hafiz-saeed/articleshow/68305137.cms

Pakistan turns down visa request of UN team to interview Hafiz Saeed
China's attitude shows its strong sense of responsibility and is conducive to real and lasting resolution of relevant issues.


https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/hafiz-saeed-barred-from-delivering-friday-sermon-in-pakistan-1473006-2019-03-08

Hafiz Saeed barred from delivering Friday sermon in Pakistan
This is perhaps for the first time in years that Saeed despite being present in Lahore will not be able to deliver Friday sermon at Jamia Masjid Qadsia, the JuD headquarters here.


Did India take out Half-a$$ Suar?

Remember dog is not barking! And remember Bakistan shutdown its airspace for several days, it heated up LOC and is trying out drones in Sri Ganganagar.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby partha » 13 Mar 2019 11:35

If India took out Hafiz Saeed, the perpetrator of Mumbai attacks, there is no way GoI will hide it from the Indian public. That too so close to the elections. Election or no election, there is no reason in the first place to hide such a thing.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby banrjeer » 13 Mar 2019 11:56

Won't the brands of Indian companies benefit long term from a cleaner(from scum) "stable and secure subcontinent" or sanctions. Could they be persuaded to use some of their marketing budgets for lobbying for a cause.

What about private companies who will directly profit from sub-conventional warfare

Gaurav Arya advocating govt. in exile for the Baloch and Sindh, embassies in a few world cities supported by India.
He is pretty well spoken and has following.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Amber G. » 13 Mar 2019 12:07

Jay wrote:
Rudradev wrote:Well, look at what's leaking out already....

Let's not jump the gun. To me, this video does not prove anything ....

Sorry to point out the obvious but guys let us not be too Yudhisters... ..When someone is shouting "Aswathama hato".. let the confusion spread.. It is not necessary to correct/shout "naro ya kunjro.."

----
Ref. Story in Mahabharat - An elephant name Aswathama was killed. Now Aswathama was the name of Dronacharya too. So when the Yudhister shouted "Aswathama was killed" (which made Dronacharya to give up the fight) the after part "The elephant NOT the man" was drowned out in Krishna's shankhnaad...
Moral - Just enjoy these videos and stuff like that.. let it serve it purpose, NO need to be extremely critical and technical to prove all details.
We (India - and those which matters) do have sat pictures and all the solid proof we need.

Just my 2 cents.
(Edited: corrected spelling of aswthama)
Last edited by Amber G. on 13 Mar 2019 12:33, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Kashi » 13 Mar 2019 12:10

Amber G. wrote:Ref. Story in Mahabharat - An elephant name Aswadhama was killed. Now Aswadhama was the name of Dronacharya too


Dronacharya's son was named अश्वत्थामा (Aśvatthāmā)

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Amber G. » 13 Mar 2019 12:31

Kashi wrote:

Dronacharya's son was named अश्वत्थामा (Aśvatthāmā)

Thanks. I edited the original message.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 13 Mar 2019 12:38

Rudradev wrote:Yaar, what ARE the facts on the ground? As far as I can make out from posts in this thread (and other related ones), neither you nor I nor anyone else here has much of an inkling what the specific facts on the ground truly are at present (a good thing by the way, because people who actually know are duty-bound to keep it to themselves).

We simply do our best, sifting through whatever public domain information is there for this or that scrap of news. But everything beyond that is guesswork and speculation on our part.

How good is the speculation? No way of knowing. I suspect it is like trying to reconstruct the Mahabharata given one random word per every ten slokas, with an unknown % of the given words being incorrect.


Not really the case because in this case we are speaking of a topic which is widely known and recognized amongst a wide variety of different groups who share a lot of info and hence there are many ways information leaks out on the ground over in India. The basic things are this, right now the Pakistani side continues to provoke and is still seeking an edge on the LOC. That itself shows that our current methods have not escalated to the point, where as in 2001, frantic phone calls are made to our side, to somehow stop, and not "worsen matters between neighbours". Kid you not, these sort of calls did happen.
Like I said, even if you wish to go strictly by GOI etc press releases, take a look at the casualties we have been incurring in J&K. Its nothing but a low grade war & the tipping point (in our favor) has not come. This is also why many serving officers & veterans take pronouncements from Delhi on things having changed, with a "lets see". They want consistent policy above and beyond what;s being done. And the BJP tieup with PDP etc didnt help any. Many many veterans for instance took the entire Uri strikes as a symbolic one, because being attuned to the grapevine they knew on the ground, basic situation remained one of dissuasion not aggressive attacks into enemy territory whenever we felt like, and we are still in a process of re-equipment. We are basically not in a war seeking state, which is where Pakistan would genuinely say "oh cr*p" and bide its while.

Assuredly not, but what does that have to do with the Taliban?
Since you mention it, LOC is a great example of the information blackout we're operating in. Everyone on social media says it is hot. GOTSP and foreign governments say it's de-escalating; GOI says different things at different times. Somebody tweets about Pakistani 155 mm gunfire, then someone else about Indian missiles. Rajnath Singh refers obliquely to a "third strike". Drones appear along IB, some are shot down. No report AT ALL of what was hit in Muzzafarabad or Chakhoti on 26/2. In India it's business as usual, Pak airspace remains closed. This is one weird war... but it's definitely a war of some kind going on, just below the threshold of conventional declaration.


Most Govts don't care if its escalated or deescalated as long as it is within the "normal" both sides operate in. Problem is that normal is in the favor of Pakistan. They infiltrate, we react. Its also in the GOI's interest, to not let too much information from J&K seep out. If people in rest of India knew the "normal" there, what happened to the J&K wasis visiting India and doing naare bazi or even otherwise, communal relations in India proper, would be a tad different.. in fact much more so. The fact that in India everything's chalta hain, is precisely the issue. GOI for long has become used to a steady stream of body bags from Kashmir, and no real incentive to change the status quo. Then a 26/11 happens and we are all exposed in front of everyone. Next, the Taliban, JEM etc are all but multiple arms of one giant hydra or octopus as we both know, so people are shuttled between all these organizations on a routine basis with the central edifice being the ISI which tries to monitor everything & threatens, bribes, cajoles & uses these folks against India wherever possible. Right now, its in their best interest to maintain a sort of division because JEM is Pakjabi led & Hizbul etc have a smattering of Kashmiris, but at the end of the day they all belong to Jihads R Us i.e. UJC.

In any case, it would be preposterous to think that one Balakot airstrike would magically scare everyone in Pakistan so badly that LOC would suddenly become peaceful. On the contrary... Balakot made it so that the Tanzeemi handlers on the other side have to put up their entire ante or risk losing everything. They HAVE to infiltrate as many jihadis as fast as they can before recruits lose their nerve or even turn on the handlers. No wonder internet in POK is down... the last thing JeM, HM cadres on that side want is for WhatsApp forwards of the post-airstrike pics to start doing the rounds. Pak Army too is under pressure from Tanzeemi leadership to maximize infiltration of whatever assets were there before the truth gets out and morale is completely sapped. For my money, THAT's why they are pulling out all the stops to give covering fire. And, as it appears (though no one knows for sure) getting pasted for it.


No, unfortunately Balakot or one airstrike anywhere would not cause the kind of effects you are talking of, because the propaganda & jihad influence on TSP society is so much, that even the shaheeds will be celebrated and myth making done of how much damage they caused & etc etc and recruitment will continue. The US has literally vaporized hundreds if not thousands of jihadis in Pakistan proper using drone strikes, has that stopped any recruitment? Anyhow recruits will be pushed across based on weather, availability of guides. Indian Army positioning etc, dozens of local factors.
See the article I posted before. The covering fire stuff has been going on for long. They are getting pasted, but not enough, because we don't want to escalate beyond a point. That mindset too needs to change.
So far all Balakot has done has is signaled a change in Indian policy about striking into Pakistan without worrying the nuke overhang but the next day, by again imposing restrictive ROE on the IAF, we took away quite a bit from our "mad dog" response the previous day. We climbed 10 steps and gave up 5. But at least we are 5 steps ahead.

But the truth WILL come out. This is the information age. Pakistan Army cannot stop it as they covered their tracks in 71 and Kargil. In the following days, weeks, months, the evidence will come to the cell phone or favourite cyber-cafe of every abdul considering a career in suicide bombing. As for people as high up as the top leadership of various Taliban factions... I will bet they already know everything there is to know about the damage done in Balakot. By, of all people, the Hanoods.


How will the truth be out, when all we are doing is having the MOD sniffle to itself and says we know the pilot who was lost but we are oh so moral we won't give his name out? Our actions are too defensive IMHO, revert to self-imposed shackles. We revel in this we are oh so peaceful and lawful mythos, while our opponents and the world only see and demand, strength.


be expected when you kick the hornet's nest. That is why you have lots of DDT in store ahead of time. There was a surge of 100 companies of CAPF into the valley on the night of the strike, anticipating exactly this.


Those 100 companies of CAPF can't do much while in the hinterlands of J&K, they are at best an urban hold your ground force given their training and restrictions.

Still don't understand why Balakot could have been expected NOT to result in a hotter COIN situation in J&K. Whatever stops there are will be pulled out, and the terrorists already in the valley will either surrender or fight like cornered animals. No other choice for them. And again, the cannon-fodder currently being squelched in the valley are not who I was talking about re: Afghanistan.


Fair enough, I took your comment re: Afghans to be all the tanzeems fighting India, but the point I was making is its still business as usual. The east UJC guys the Pakkabis will get used to a new normal like the west Afghan good Taliban, but they will adapt IMHO unless w really bring the heat on them.

Fair enough, not "invincible", but certainly TSPA had an image of being the Top Kabila between the Indus and Iran. Zarb-e-Azb, Radd-ul-Fasad were designed to cultivate exactly this image. TSPA is as jihadi as any Taliban faction or Pakjabi Tanzeem, but with an overwhelming advantage in heavy weaponry, artillery, and air-power. Combined with a total disregard for collateral damage and civilian casualties, they were able to clear North Waziristan of all but their preferred Sarkari Tanzeems through sheer brute force in the 2014-17 period. Unkil collaborated with them to some extent, providing intel from drones etc.


Yes, agree and that ability comes from their innvincible image in Pakjab their stronghold, which gives them the resources to be the big boy in town. That facade of invinicibility should be torn down.

In effect the TSPA managed to establish itself as unbeatable vis-a-vis Quetta Shura or any of the Talib groups. The end result of Radd-ul-Fasad was that anti-Slumbad Talibs either came back to ISI control (mostly signing up to join Jaish-e-Mohammed, major cross-pollination happened there)... or else joined ISIS affilitates and other non-Taliban groups in Afghanistan. The TTP that once menaced Pakistani territory in Swat valley was smashed. Sarkari Taliban like the Haqqanis were in any case pro-Slumbad. The neutral (bet-hedging) Taliban factions, however, accepted for the moment that Pakistan was too strong and too brutal to challenge openly... and fell in line. THIS was a key step to Slumbad convincing both the Taliban factional bigwigs and the US that Pakistan alone could compel the Taliban to the table at the Doha talks. Will it hold once it becomes incontrovertibly obvious what India did to the JeM (which, as SSridhar and others have noted, is full of former TTP)? News travels fast in the FATA. Note especially where we chose to strike them... in KP, the Pashtun hinterland. There was a message in all of that. Taliban will know for a fact that TSPA and ISI cannot guarantee them protection anywhere within Pakistan's borders (a red-line that even the mighty Unkil, with the sole exception of Abbotabad, always respected). Their anger will be directed squarely at TSPA and ISI... building up rapidly on whatever underlying distrust and resentment may have been there before.


Again, whether these tanzeems get beaten up by PA or India is sort of immaterial because in the long run, the local bully, the PA still has them by the short and curlies, and there are enough morons in Pakistan willing to sign up for jihad. Only and only if we are so vicious that the thought of confronting us is certain obliteration & our retribution constantly hounds them, will they seek to fight it out with the PA. We havent demonstrated that yet.

The results will be fun to see. I suspect they will emerge after a few weeks or months in full steam. However, the fact that some Taliban groups are already (as early as Feb 28th!) carrying out intensified attacks on Afghan and US installations, basically trying to blow a hole in the Doha talks, is already giving some indication of what is to come.


This is what they do though. Anything happens, they hit the KFC and Afghan installations and try to come to our side.

Again, sir, I submit that we don't know enough. Official Delhi will always... ALWAYS... claim that it is being responsible, keeping collateral damage in mind, respecting nuclear redlines and whatnot. For example right now there could be anything at all happening on the LOC, in Sri Ganganagar, in Kutch, and everywhere in between. Not all of this is jawabi karwahee. Not all of this is admitted in public (of course, otherwise we would know it). Some of it may never be admitted. All we will have is occasional cryptic affirmations from the services that "operations are still in progress". Bus.

In the process, are constant and unrelenting hits being suffered by the Pakis? Are our head-takers racking up a score on the other side of LOC, or even IB? We have to live with the fact that the Modi Govt (or any govt) may never, ever make an official policy declaration that accurately reflects what they're doing.


You don't need them to make an official declaration. You can see the situation in J&K, how the local populace is (meek, tummies exposed or barking) & what certain groups are vis a vis the GOI (strength respects strength). When that situation changes radically, you'll know the new/old sheriff in town is genuinely feared & respected & even his arms (IA etc) will convey the fact.

So, as you say, the "day he stops having to even mention it" may have already come. He barely at all mentioned the Balakot raid itself. He isn't mentioning a word about what's happening now. Doesn't mean we can assume it isn't happening. The jihadi who barely escapes it with scorched beard and shrapnel in his rectum may be the only one who knows for sure.


I dont know whether you are watching current electioneering, but Modi is literally harping on the Balakot raid in every other speech. The risk with that is it rapidly starts looking like a gimmick (even if it wasn't) and leads to cynicism that just "that" was enough.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 13 Mar 2019 13:03

schinnas wrote:
Amber G. wrote:Thanks for posting it. Whole interview is worth watching.

For me, critical part was what I was thinking.. but RM has articulated it pretty nicely...

Balkot was NOT just a reaction/retaliation to Pulwama. Definitely not one time thingie... ANY time there is intelligence, there will be pre-emptive strike if India needs it to stop a terror attack.

Pakistan could have stopped the Balkot .. they had a few week after Pulwama to clean those terrorist camp. They did not do it so India has to do that.


I wonder why India is not demanding compensation to recover the cost of our police action in Balakot and PoK to establish law and order with support of IAF. We are fully justified in our pre emptive joint police+IAF action in PoK as it is after all Indian territory.

However, India needs to be compensated for having to clean up Balakot. So a very minimum Pakistan needs to be the bill for $24M (2M per plane raid + precision munition) and take iirecoverable steps to curb terrorism before India can restart even track thoo.


:mrgreen: :mrgreen:

This would be brilliant.

We should put a price per jihadi as well. Like the Pied Piper of Hamlin.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Amber G. » 13 Mar 2019 13:03

Meanwhile at UNHRC
India raised the issue of Pulwama terror attack and the need to take action against Masood Azhar and his terror outfit JeM that took responsibility for the attack. ..
India slams Pakistan for supporting terrorism at UNHRC
While exercising RoR:
- India raised the issue of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and gross human rights violations by Pakistan
- India raised the issue of Pulwama terror attack and the need to take action against Masood Azhar and his terror outfit JeM
- India also iterated its stand that Jammu and Kashmir is an "integral" part of India

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Amber G. » 13 Mar 2019 13:11

More trickling in..from reports in the Urdu media of some bodies being transported from Balakot to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and tribal areas of Pakistan following the anti-terror strike by India...

- Pakistan military officer admits to 'martyrdom' of more than 200 militants during Indian strike on Balakot. Calls the terrorists Mujahid, who receive special favours/sustenance from Allah as they fight to support Pak government Vows to support families, ..


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