So far, by my count, I am the only one to say coup within a month; except for Vips who might envision something coup-like within a 3-6 months timeframe. As a practical matter: If it comes-off within two months, I'll still feel like I won this (non) bet, because I'll have guessed closer to the date. If the coup comes-off within a 2-7 months window from yesterday; Vips will have dibs on calling himself the winner. In fairness, though, Vips's prize should be less than mine would have been, given his window of opportunity was 2.5 times larger than the one I specified.
All the rest of you who've counseled, no-coup -- where do you find your faith in IK? He's on the verge of doing something truly blasphemous, and in the TSP, such a dangerous thing can turn someone's stakes upside-down in a heartbeat. [That house of cards is set to crumble. Vips' guess of 3-6 months assumes waaay more runway than they have, financially. I truly don't know where anyone on BRF finds anything resembling longer-term faith in that regime. His (IK's) only purpose, was to be a nice face to win funding. But my Parisian chaiwallah-friend slipped a note in with the box of biskoot I received parcel-post. It read the FATF is going to be unimpressed with the nothing being done by the TSP; and that blacklisting will make the IMF bailout an impossibility. The same goes for the WB. Amir Khan won't do it; and so the Chinese will have less of a reason themselves.
It's beyond IK to gear-up for a fight with Iran; which is the tasking for PAF flyers, clear-though to the immediate short term. If IK can't raise money, and won't champion a war with Iran, what will he be good for? Fig leaf, onleeee? I don't see it -- not when he's de facto admitting to terrorists in the countryside, and worse-yet, perhaps giving some people the notion that they are to be dispensed with.
I suppose, we shall see.
Vips wrote:Pak army will not need to take any assertive or overt action to do a coup. They just have to wait another 3-6 months when the full effect of the IMF mandated budget measures will be felt. The AOA baying abduls/ayeshas on the street will create the perfect condition for the jernails to do a soft coup.