Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

VikramA · Post by **VikramA** » 26 Apr 2019 18:34

can someone provide the exact longitude and latitiude data for the hilltop. i can't seem to find it

Dileep · Post by **Dileep** » 26 Apr 2019 18:36

34.46393406073418,73.31837133136688
Ref F-16 Crash: Nothing from OSINT. We know that Abhi landed in Horran village. That's all.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Apr 2019 18:52

and IAF stating on the aircraft went about 6-8 Km north of the MIg 21 is place caleld Sabzkot which I am not able to locate on the Map North West of Jhanger

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 26 Apr 2019 18:54

Dileep wrote:34.46393406073418,73.31837133136688
Ref F-16 Crash: Nothing from OSINT. We know that Abhi landed in Horran village. That's all.

Thanks, but its too low rez to make out anything specific. What are we missing?

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 26 Apr 2019 19:38

I dont think the images from GE of the location of the airstrike is from the 27th feb as claimed..

The pics used by @RajFortyseven for his Oopen source BDA showed 4 clear black spots about a meter wide on the residential building.. The roof on the whole seemed dislocated in those pics, in GE its quite pristine still IMHO

saip · Post by **saip** » 26 Apr 2019 20:14

I do not see any 'bad weather' (paki's claim for not taking anyone to Balakot)

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 26 Apr 2019 20:29

saip wrote:I do not see any 'bad weather' (paki's claim for not taking anyone to Balakot)

Saar, GE picks the best images to create a good cloudfree image of the location.. so some of them are at different time points.

If you look at pics from Zoom earth (which lets you select the desired date), you can see that the place was indeed under some cloud cover..

Definitely nothing a helicopter cannot handle, Pakis dont need much pushing to lie

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Apr 2019 20:35

It had never occurred to me that individual "tiles" in Google maps could be updated independently. Hmmm!!!

Ravi Karumanchiri · Post by **Ravi Karumanchiri** » 26 Apr 2019 20:41

Glad to see this thread back open. There really was no other related thread in which to post this (which I wanted to do some weeks ago).

It bears watching. Reserve any judgement until at least hearing the panel participants introduced. This was from April 10...

Further consider: If it is so apparent to nearly everyone that the Pulwama attack was an attempt to smear this current GoI in the run-up to the election; which attempt was put-down by the Balakot strike --- AND insofar as this represents a new paradigm of response from this administration; which is a departure from previous administrations -- with the elections ongoing at present: Why on earth close this thread so, so prematurely?

We barely know where *most* of the bombs fell on Balakot, with a mere hint of what else was hit -- but we know bombs dropped elsewhere, other than Balakot, on that same sortie.

IMO this thread should remain open, until at least that much information comes-out (not to mention the election wraps-up and the full measure of all events can be taken). Amir Khan has yet to count fizzlyas, FATF has yet to rule conclusively, etc.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 26 Apr 2019 20:46

saip wrote:I do not see any 'bad weather' (paki's claim for not taking anyone to Balakot)

Bad weather for munitions, sensors = cloud cover, rain. Not necessarily a deal breaker for people on the ground!

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 26 Apr 2019 21:21

https://theprint.in/defence/india-compl ... ed/224959/
Friday, 26 April, 2019

Home Defence India completes phase one of ballistic missile defence programme, nod for missiles...

Defence

India completes phase one of ballistic missile defence programme, nod for missiles awaited
Phase one of the programme will see Delhi and Mumbai being guarded against incoming ballistic missiles.
Snehesh Alex Philip Updated: 23 April, 2019 6:04 pm IST
Ballistic Missile Defence

New Delhi: In a boost to India’s deterrence capabilities, the phase one of the ambitious Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) programme has been completed and a formal nod for the deployment of active missiles is expected soon, top sources told ThePrint.

Phase one of the programme will cover Delhi and Mumbai, and guard them against incoming ballistic missiles.

“The phase one of the Ballistic Missile Defence programme has been completed. We have deployed two indigenous long-range radars as part of the programme. As and when we get an all-clear from the government, the specific missiles will be deployed,” a top source in the defence establishment told ThePrint.

Sources also said adequate arrangements have been made to ensure that missiles were produced in the required manner.

Asked by when the permission for the deployment of missiles is expected, another top source said, “soon” without getting into any time line.

‘Radars have higher range and capability’

Sources said the two radars that have been deployed are completely indigenous.

It was in the mid-2000s that India got Swordfish from Israel. The Swordfish is an active electronically scanned array (AESA) long-range tracking radar, specifically built to counter ballistic missile threat.

This radar is a derivative of the Israeli Green Pine long-range radar, which is the critical component of its arrow missile defence system. However, Swordfish uses a number of indigenous systems.

“After Swordfish, we have managed to make two indigenous radars with higher range and capability,” a defence source said.

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 26 Apr 2019 21:51

^^
Phase 1 was supposed to be PAD and AAD + radar infra + support infra, right? What is this special permission for deploying missiles? Just have radars, Command and control and no missiles?? Sounds lifafa to me

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 26 Apr 2019 21:57

UlanBatori wrote:It had never occurred to me that individual "tiles" in Google maps could be updated independently. Hmmm!!!

They've been doing it for years at request of Unkil. Several AFBs in the US have not been updated for quite some time at a stretch. Then comes along the Russian Open Skies Tu-214, happily distributing those images pro bono to the world.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 26 Apr 2019 21:58

@Sudhan,

Its not lifafa. They have deployed the radars first. What it means is the Phase 1 is ready, the actual orders for rest of the setup are to be placed. Another reason for Pakistan's saber rattling to matter less and less.

Please continue here.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1238&start=1880

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 26 Apr 2019 22:16

I can't make out of anything on google maps either. pakis have paid them well

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Apr 2019 22:17

Bad weather for munitions, sensors = cloud cover, rain. Not necessarily a deal breaker for people on the ground!

Bad weather at Balakot was drizzle of pieces of terrorists dropping from the tree branches, plus stench.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 26 Apr 2019 22:54

No bombing needed.
https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2019/0 ... n-balakot/
Buildings collapse due to rain in Balakot

BALAKOT: At least 10 shops and a hotel collapsed due to heavy rain followed by wind storm here on Thursday-Friday midnight.

According to details, due to torrential rains, the roof of a hotel and 10 shops located in Paludran area of scenic Naran valley in tehsil Balakot suddenly came down. However, no causalities were reported as the shops and hotel were vacant and locked at the time of the incident.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Apr 2019 23:31

There WERE pics on Teetar (posted here too) from Pak showing what had happened. Pics taken from the ground floor, outside. The holes in the concrete roof were small, maybe 0.7m x 1m, but below was total devastation: walls partly collapsed. As expected. Clear that no one inside could have survived that havoc.
The Pakis refusing to let media up there for 7 weeks - and totally banning overflight including drones, tells it all, doesn't it? What more "poof" is needed?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 26 Apr 2019 23:40

Just a quick note on weapons diversity available to IAF currently *per public sources*:

Su-30:
KAB-1500 Laser, KAB-500 EO, Griffin LGB, Kh-59ME EO missile (100km+), Brahmos (290km+, needs special airframe mods will be added), Kh-29 EO (10-30 km), Spice 2000 being integrated

Mirage 2000
Griffin LGB, Paveway-2 LGB, Crystal Maze, Spice 2000, BGL-1000 LGB

Jaguar
Griffin LGB, Paveway 2 LGB, Sensor Fuzed Weapon

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 26 Apr 2019 23:51

^^The deficiency seems to be on the GPS guided types. We seem to have enough LGB's integrated on a large part of the fleet. But M2k's are the only ones with SPICE integration. Have to question why the IAF did not integrate the SPICE on the MKI's first considering the huge difference in sizes of M2k and MKI fleets in addition to obsolescence of systems on board the non-upgraded M2k.

tsarkar · Post by **tsarkar** » 27 Apr 2019 00:12

nachiket wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:So is the present story that the Indian planes (except for the line-of-sight weapon carriers) did NOT cross the LOC? Takes the joy out of imagining the F-16 pajama-shivering over Abbotabad while IAF planes whizzed by them and back.
They most certainly did. The max range of the SPICE 2000 may allow it to be released from within Indian airspace but that does not mean it will be released at max range. And the target needs to be pained by the LDP continuously till the weapon hits it. Can't do that without continuing to fly toward the target.

SPICE and Crystal Maze DO NOT need nor use laser designation. They use INS/GPS mid course and Scene Matching & Correlation for terminal homing with less than 3 meters CEP.

Why are you creating a narrative out of nowhere? That destroys the credibility of the real thing.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 27 Apr 2019 00:16

One quick note about GE imagery dates. The dates that you see for the tiles is not the date of image capture but the date that tile was uploaded to the Google earth server. It's a common misconception. The imagery might be much older and often is.

tsarkar · Post by **tsarkar** » 27 Apr 2019 00:20

nachiket wrote:^^The deficiency seems to be on the GPS guided types. We seem to have enough LGB's integrated on a large part of the fleet. But M2k's are the only ones with SPICE integration. Have to question why the IAF did not integrate the SPICE on the MKI's first considering the huge difference in sizes of M2k and MKI fleets in addition to obsolescence of systems on board the non-upgraded M2k.

Laser Guidance helps target moving targets. GPS can be jammed or spoofed or denied - like during a Brahmos firing. Hence the preference for EO scene matching and correlation seekers like KH-59, SPICE & Crystal Maze.

https://frontline.thehindu.com/static/h ... 704400.htm

The supersonic cruise missile BrahMos missed the target at the Army’s range at Pokhran in Rajasthan because its global positioning system (GPS) blanked out, said DRDO officials. The American satellites that run the GPS had been switched off on the day Barack Obama was sworn in the United States President, they said. The missile, therefore, travelled for 112 seconds instead of the slated 84 seconds and fell 7 km away from the target.

The officials could not say whether the Americans had deliberately switched off the GPS satellites to test whether India’s missile mission would be a success without them. They conceded that it was possible to switch off GPS-linked satellites selectively. The failure of the mission, therefore, has underlined the need for India to have its own GPS-linked satellites instead of depending on American or Russian constellations, said an official.

It is easier to integrate western weapons with western platforms. Basic reason being different electrical systems used by Russian and Western platforms. Lug spacing is different. SPICE for Su-30 will probably be a special batch made by Israelis compatible with Russian standards.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 27 Apr 2019 00:29

tsarkar wrote: SPICE and Crystal Maze DO NOT need nor use laser designation. They use INS/GPS mid course and Scene Matching & Correlation for terminal homing with less than 3 meters CEP.

Why are you creating a narrative out of nowhere? That destroys the credibility of the real thing.

Sorry tsarkar ji, that was a brain fade moment for me when I turned SPICE into an LGB in my own mind. Will edit the original post.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Apr 2019 01:07

srin wrote:There are 2 kinds of BDAs: one for IAF/GoI and one for media/public.
Winning the propaganda war for Op Balakot required the second kind - big visible bangs and more important, terrorist body parts scattered around. While the Crystal Maze would have provided I guess TV visuals, it wouldn't have helped the ISPR proxies, the so-called "OSINT" and their mouthpieces, the MSM, who'd have said that there was no one living there.

So, I'm not sure if Crystal Maze really would have helped.

The real BDA* was on the aftermath when TSP close the airspace and only 3 Boeing 777 were flown out to KSA.
Done and dusted.
Misfortunately GOI can't publicize it.
Thanks to that PN is stuck in Krachi harbor and did not attend the China fleet review while Indian Navy attended.

Consider these facts.
M2ks launched 5 SPICE 2000 Israeli penetrator bombs.
These bombs have low explosive content and more metal compared to BLU-109.
The purpose is to achieve higher penetration. Approximately 25 % more.
Despite the low explosive content because of the forged metal case the fragments are uniform and deadly.

If you dont kow this type of knowledge, its irrelevant even if you are taken to see the post strike facility.

While at it note the fire damage to unknown missile storage site later in the campaign.

BTW I think using Crystal Maze for pictures is waste.

Recall a UAV Harop was flown too.
Could not be just for flying practice.

My hats off to the pilot of the non-upgrade M2k who did not waste his ordnance.

Also for SaiK the SPICE 2K guidance kit is from Crystal MAZE.
Its just a non-powered version.

SPICE 2K is being integrated with Su-30MKI.
Our own Mil forum has the data circa 2017.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 27 Apr 2019 02:40

New Balakot images show 3 clear IAF Spice 2000 bomb holes in Jaish building

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Apr 2019 03:52

Great article

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 27 Apr 2019 06:02

nachiket wrote:^^The deficiency seems to be on the GPS guided types. We seem to have enough LGB's integrated on a large part of the fleet. But M2k's are the only ones with SPICE integration. Have to question why the IAF did not integrate the SPICE on the MKI's first considering the huge difference in sizes of M2k and MKI fleets in addition to obsolescence of systems on board the non-upgraded M2k.

I think it was because the Mirages got Crystal Maze first, so the idea was that it would be easier to integrate the SPICE there too and train a pool of pilots on it.

Now both Su-30 and Mirage will have SPICE capability.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 27 Apr 2019 06:08

We seem to be doubling down on HAROP. This is the 2nd purchase of the HAROP.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 971351.cms

NEW DELHI: In a major boost for Indian Air Force's unmanned warfare capability, the Defence Ministry has approved 54 Israeli HAROP attack drones which can crash into high-value enemy military targets to destroy them completely.

The Air Force already has an inventory of around 110 of these drones which have now been renamed as P-4. These are equipped with electro-optical sensors to loiter over high-value military targets such as surveillance bases and radar stations before exploding them ..
..............

Interestingly our HARPY purchase had issues with the engine hence we moved to HAROP, but it was a rectifiable issue. If we fixed it (we should have by now), we do have an inventory of loitering munitions.

rajsunder · Post by **rajsunder** » 27 Apr 2019 06:35

tsarkar wrote:
nachiket wrote:^^The deficiency seems to be on the GPS guided types. We seem to have enough LGB's integrated on a large part of the fleet. But M2k's are the only ones with SPICE integration. Have to question why the IAF did not integrate the SPICE on the MKI's first considering the huge difference in sizes of M2k and MKI fleets in addition to obsolescence of systems on board the non-upgraded M2k.
Laser Guidance helps target moving targets. GPS can be jammed or spoofed or denied - like during a Brahmos firing. Hence the preference for EO scene matching and correlation seekers like KH-59, SPICE & Crystal Maze.

https://frontline.thehindu.com/static/h ... 704400.htm
The supersonic cruise missile BrahMos missed the target at the Army’s range at Pokhran in Rajasthan because its global positioning system (GPS) blanked out, said DRDO officials. The American satellites that run the GPS had been switched off on the day Barack Obama was sworn in the United States President, they said. The missile, therefore, travelled for 112 seconds instead of the slated 84 seconds and fell 7 km away from the target.

The officials could not say whether the Americans had deliberately switched off the GPS satellites to test whether India’s missile mission would be a success without them. They conceded that it was possible to switch off GPS-linked satellites selectively. The failure of the mission, therefore, has underlined the need for India to have its own GPS-linked satellites instead of depending on American or Russian constellations, said an official.
It is easier to integrate western weapons with western platforms. Basic reason being different electrical systems used by Russian and Western platforms. Lug spacing is different. SPICE for Su-30 will probably be a special batch made by Israelis compatible with Russian standards.

I remember reading that american GPS is not available for anything that travels faster than Mach1

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 27 Apr 2019 11:36

Not really true, think of all the fighters having GPS.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 27 Apr 2019 11:46

Priority lists for IAF:

#1:
EW:
6-channel RWR program followed by Dhruti RWR program on Su-30 needs to be accelerated
EW pod numbers: To back up SAP-518 numbers, the DARE program has to be rushed through trials asap & production started @ high rate. Usual take 2 years to sign the deal stuff needs to be stopped.
D-29 program, ditto as it has completed trials. Its a combination RWJ. And will be critical to protect our MiG-29s.
Ditto for DARIN-3 D-Jag.

Comms:
SDR program - the encrypted/B-NET SDRs need to be on all our critical fleet elements. A second order needs to be in place for the fighter & AEW&CS fleet at least.

Munitions:
AAMs: Integrate/order RVV-SD/Derby ER only if range > AMRAAM C-5/7 while holding out for Astra NG
Add the 7 additional Akash squadrons + Pechora digitization program.

Radars:
2x Phalcon orders + 1x Netra need to be brought in ASAP. These are low hanging fruit

#2 Su-30 MLU, DARIN-3 re-engineing, Additional PGMs can all be Phase 2.

Contrary to what is being peddled by journos, the Su-30 Super 30 upgrade is really not that essential in its entirety right away.
The Bars remains very powerful and so do the vast majority of the Su-30s abilities. It would be far more worthwhile to begin with upgrading the key items and focus on a MLU for only 50-100 odd airframes as a 1st test case.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 27 Apr 2019 12:54

Interesting Air Marshal Nohwar talks we want/working on suter type of technology for future.

vasu raya · Post by **vasu raya** » 27 Apr 2019 20:13

Not sure if ignoring optics is a good idea, it could be facilitated if we take the example of tandem warheads where the 2nd part of the bomb doesn't need any seeker and can be programmed to trail the first by a few meters

like when the Spice 2000 bomb goes vertical before the final dive and there are no more trajectory corrections, the 2nd part detaches and explodes in the wake of the first, so if one has the building structure details, software could be used to program timing controllers of the tandem bomb

thanks for the article that details the working of Spice bomb!

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 27 Apr 2019 20:33

Penetration ability of a single warhead will be far superior than breaking it up into 2 warheads, if the intent is to hit the same target.

vasu raya · Post by **vasu raya** » 27 Apr 2019 20:55

the context was spice bomb did its job but the open source sat pics on BDA were being questioned, so now one has to use a 2nd bomb to show tell tale signs of destruction, the 2nd bomb if it is a standoff weapon with its own seeker can get expensive if used only for BDA purposes, maybe needing more planes, the weather as is wasn't favorable for the seekers either. Own sat imagery is in the classified domain.

The downside is bomb weight can go up or the 2nd part could just be a BDA payload piggybacking.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 27 Apr 2019 23:59

IAF should consider inducting rapid massive induction of : -

DIRCM
Towed Decoys
Satellite Comms on Airborne platforms

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Apr 2019 03:42

vasu who cares? IAF knows and Pakis know. Only Congress!

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 28 Apr 2019 03:51

ramana wrote:vasu who cares? IAF knows and Pakis know. Only Congress!

Optics Saar! We have acknowledged the propaganda is fought online as opposed to carefully construed TV clips like back in the day. I'm sure the leadership will not let another opportunity pass.

srin · Post by **srin** » 28 Apr 2019 09:43

Karan M wrote:Priority lists for IAF:

#1:
EW:
6-channel RWR program followed by Dhruti RWR program on Su-30 needs to be accelerated
EW pod numbers: To back up SAP-518 numbers, the DARE program has to be rushed through trials asap & production started @ high rate. Usual take 2 years to sign the deal stuff needs to be stopped.
D-29 program, ditto as it has completed trials. Its a combination RWJ. And will be critical to protect our MiG-29s.
Ditto for DARIN-3 D-Jag.

Comms:
SDR program - the encrypted/B-NET SDRs need to be on all our critical fleet elements. A second order needs to be in place for the fighter & AEW&CS fleet at least.

Munitions:
AAMs: Integrate/order RVV-SD/Derby ER only if range > AMRAAM C-5/7 while holding out for Astra NG
Add the 7 additional Akash squadrons + Pechora digitization program.

Radars:
2x Phalcon orders + 1x Netra need to be brought in ASAP. These are low hanging fruit

#2 Su-30 MLU, DARIN-3 re-engineing, Additional PGMs can all be Phase 2.

Contrary to what is being peddled by journos, the Su-30 Super 30 upgrade is really not that essential in its entirety right away.
The Bars remains very powerful and so do the vast majority of the Su-30s abilities. It would be far more worthwhile to begin with upgrading the key items and focus on a MLU for only 50-100 odd airframes as a 1st test case.

Some additions:
- Radars: THD-1955 replacements, more aerostat based surveillance radars, VHF (anti-stealth) radars.
- SAMs: ABM (radar + missile) cover for more cities. Also, where does LRSAM/MRSAM fit in ? Is it even on ?
- Lots of anti-radiation missiles.

Negative additions (as in - don't procure):
- Armed drones that we wanted to get from US: Don't see the scope for these in either Op Balakot or the subsequent engagements.