Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

[Kashi]

Does this mean that India has de-escalated i.e. moved IAF aircraft back from forward operating bases?

No we have not.

[Yogi_G]

Hafiz Saeed is arrested, airspace is opened up - once can guess if there is a link somehow of a back door agreement? Or could be theatrics from Paks for the FATF stick.

[Kashi]

Hafiz Saeed is arrested, airspace is opened up - once can guess if there is a link somehow of a back door agreement? Or could be theatrics from Paks for the FATF stick.

Released on bail.

[RKumar]

Pak would lower their guard to save forex as well as enjoy, while we are getting ready for next round of napak smacking.

Trust me, they can't fool current dispense who have almost real time feedback. Unlike older ones, who depended upon public statements or gestures.

[rkhanna]

Hafiz Saeed is arrested, airspace is opened up - once can guess if there is a link somehow of a back door agreement? Or could be theatrics from Paks for the FATF stick.

IK is visiting America i believe. Probably looking for fresh handouts.

[Aditya_V]

Isn't Hafiz Suarez safer in a Paki jail. It's not arrest but protection. Unless they deport him this arrest should not be news

[shyamd]

Hafiz Saeed is arrested, airspace is opened up - once can guess if there is a link somehow of a back door agreement? Or could be theatrics from Paks for the FATF stick.

Yes a deal has been reached. This is part of a deal that several parties have been working on. US/KSA/UAE/TSPA and a few others... there’s also been covert bilateral discussions.

[Bishwa]

PM Imran Khan is going to Washington soon

[ArjunPandit]

Regarding the 26 Feb raid by paf, it's being reported that 3 of 11 bombs didn't blast what about the rest 8..

[Bishwa]

Well as per JK police reported in newspapers like Hindu, 6 places were hit Lam, keri, nadian, Pokharni, Hamirpur, Rajauri. This is shown below

[Aditya_V]

IAF should put these H-4's and US LGB along with Amraam debris of the other 5 missiles on display. So PAF came that day with all they could. They would not done so had not JEM taken such huge causalities, the public needs to see this.

[naird]

IAF should put these H-4's and US LGB along with Amraam debris of the other 5 missiles on display. So PAF came that day with all they could. They would not done so had not JEM taken such huge causalities, the public needs to see this.

AFAIK - IAF hasnt recovered wreckages of 5 AMRAAms; Pakis have displayed Abhis suit , gear in their museum

[manjgu]

aditya meant whatever debris is available... they should also play spin master gafooras 'we captured 3 pilots' vid bite in 70 mm dolby sound.

[Aditya_V]

IAF has aldready displayed 1 Amraam debris which the Pakis desperately tried to say was sold to Taiwan and later proved to be a multi year contract sold to them and then they admitted F-16's were used. There is a difference between recovery and display. the IAF has kept quite a few to details close and has only shown what needs to be known. The Pakis have been displaying all they know and backtracking.

[ArjunPandit]

might be a bit OT, but it seems like GOI didnt want to push it too far esp during election season and keep something for the next time.

From a long term perspective, Balakot is a gradual build up. history books compress long periods over small timelines. If i compress the timelines

1. 80s-90s terrorism war

2. Kargil war

3. consolidation by India through Ceasefire and fencing and Absorbing hits through out India 2000s, with maxima reached on 2008 Nov

4. Indian resurgence,
a. Initial intentions showed by new India: foiled strike in sea when coastguard gunned a ship at sea
b. Tipping point: Surgical strike 2016
c. Decisive Intent validation: Balakot, but reluctance to go all the way

5. Endgame
a. Loha garam: Are we doing anything. Needs clarity with Afghanistan.
b. Final warning to pakis mend their ways
c. The final indian hathoda

Now linking it to setting up of IADS, Anti Sattelite testing, reorganization of IBGs, orders of fighter jets, economic growth plans (5 tn usd) should give us some pointers.

Coming back, pakis were happy taking a few pawns on the board, which might or might not have been a gambit. But the king, bishop, elephants and horses are being placed .

[UlanBatori]

U forget 2 words starting with Bal. Freedom.
OT here but I am too lazy to go find the relevant thread, besides only I seem to read or post anything there.

Payback for Dan Burton Khalistan?

[fanne]

It looks like PAF response was widespread, and if it had caused damage ( maybe there is credence that the bombs were deliberately not armed), Abhi would have been but a foot note. With 100s of causality, we were seeing at an all out war. If PAF failed (meaning their ordinance/targeting etc. did not work), man they suck big time. I think the next round is coming sooner than we like. Platforms (more planes, whether Sukhois, AWACS, S-400 or LCA or dare say Rafale) take time to be acquired, mastered (easily a 5 year cycle - Rafale, probably could be operational by end 2020, we get them in India by May of next year, we get the first next month but in France where IAF trains with them). We should for now close the loopholes -
1.Get the other two DRDO Netra
2.iDerby
3.Akash cover/MSRAM in JK
4.More Spice/GPS guided munitions
5.Advanced Russian AA BVR
6.Increase pace of M2 modernization
7.M2 with Meteor?
8.Additional AWACS (we already have 3, with operational philosophy well established, the number will mostly increase availability).
9.Smart munitions for Artillery (get 100-500 155m guns asap, enough of endless cycle of testing)
10......
The above only takes care of limited skirmish. But it maybe coming sooner than we like/think.

[naird]

IAF has aldready displayed 1 Amraam debris which the Pakis desperately tried to say was sold to Taiwan and later proved to be a multi year contract sold to them and then they admitted F-16's were used. There is a difference between recovery and display. the IAF has kept quite a few to details close and has only shown what needs to be known. The Pakis have been displaying all they know and backtracking.

The point i was trying to make is - IAF has recovered debris of only 1 Amraam. The others are still lying in those ravines/valleys waiting to be discovered. There is no reason for IAF to not show the recovered debris of all Amraams. Most probably it will never be recovered - afterall it took us more than a week to figure out crash location for our An's - why do you think it will be easy for Amraam debris.
Pakis for all you care has flooded the net with their version of the story - a google search will reveal that. After a decade the lies has a way of taking over. Sadly India is behind in the game of information warfare.

[Sid]

The point i was trying to make is - IAF has recovered debris of only 1 Amraam. The others are still lying in those ravines/valleys waiting to be discovered. There is no reason for IAF to not show the recovered debris of all Amraams. Most probably it will never be recovered - afterall it took us more than a week to figure out crash location for our An's - why do you think it will be easy for Amraam debris.
Pakis for all you care has flooded the net with their version of the story - a google search will reveal that. After a decade the lies has a way of taking over. Sadly India is behind in the game of information warfare.

It's not just the info warfare, but which version of events is more convenient for the audience.

For West it's hard to accept IAF's narrative for obvious reasons. F-16 is a much celebrated platform, and is backbone for most of West's defenses. Plus that invincibility halo is also created by Lockheed Martin marketing team.

We have been struggling since Kargil war times to get West aligned with our narrative. But in the end it does not matter, because its still just a narrative.

Our main audience is our sad neighbor, and they got the message loud and clear. Everything else is just some noise.

[Gagan]

I am intrigued by the IED mubarak in Command Military Hospital in Pindi
Someone surely met his 72 in that one.

There was simply too much smoke and debris all around, for this to be a vaccum bulb explosion and everyone just got minor injuries type explanation the ISPR hands out

[fanne]

i was expecting it to be the fat pig, but he survives, so what gives?

[ramana]

Gagan,
Balakot and the Fizzle Ya response* showed that Pak has a sub-nuke response to the attack.
It defused the nuke flashpoint rhetoric of the NPA and TSP.
Quite big achievement.

* Pak response to the Balakot attack was to send a 24 fighter plane package and this is a conventional response to the IAF surgical strike.
And Balakot has set the standard for Indian response to a Pakistan terrorist strike.

Indian public will not accept "aar par ladai" talk or do nothing mumbles after Balakot.

[ramana]

i was expecting it to be the fat pig, but he survives, so what gives?

Maybe he was in a different ward or another hospital.
But one thing for sure he will resort to unani hakims from now on.

[Aditya_V]

Now that the Im the dim is back for what was a sucessful trip for him, I think we should expect Pakis to act up in Sep 19 once the moonsoon begins to slow down, hope we take pre emptive action, takign down Paki launch pads, artillery and border infrastructure, cant wait till the next attack comes.

And I hope details of the Downed F-16 with pilots and some unofficial videos are released, hopefully videos of abduls in POk which has been censored by the Paki army has by now been electronically moved out of Pakistan and now should surface.

[kit]

Pak would lower their guard to save forex as well as enjoy, while we are getting ready for next round of napak smacking.

Trust me, they can't fool current dispense who have almost real time feedback. Unlike older ones, who depended upon public statements or gestures.

i can predict "periodic exercises" by the army and some proactive measures under the radar. but expect some "natural calamities" on the other side of the border. I want to see whether the Americans changed their real colors

[Aditya_V]

If the past is any indication, we are more reactive than proactive, and domestic acquition and production really needs to scale up.

[pankajs]

1. Pre Balakot Surgical strike was reactive even if the first contact was initiated by India. The GOI was very clear that it was reacting to the terror launch pad activation. Note also how quickly the operation was declared closed. It was also meant to clearly convey to TSPA the limited nature of the operations. GOI does not want escalation if it can avoid it.

2. Balakot was reactive. Even in Balakot the PAF's intrusion and targeting of military instillation was allowed to go answered just because no damage was done. That should be as clear a signal of Modi/GOI's posture as can be.

3. Even when many follow-up firefights along the LOC were responded to with fury, those still were responses to Baki escalation.

If one goes though all Modi has said and done, he is not interested keeping the border active. Modi's focus is economic development of India with the immediate target being $5T economy. If Bakis don't try any stunts on the LOC and/or inside India Modi does not intend to carry the fight to them much less initiate one.

BUT one can depend of Bakis to not give up and keep up the provocation.

[Aditya_V]

Pakistan usefulness to other world powers is to contain India, so the Pakis will definitely , we must slow target their Japense Hino trucks, Toyota trucks, Arms storage depots, bridges, barracks etc so that over a period of time these are heavily degraded. We need weapons in volumes and need domestic production to keep the Tech edge over them.

They will definitely try something, we must keep keeping them on the back foot.

[Aditya_V]

Days after Imran Khan's visit, US approves sales to support Pak's F-16 fighter jets

Looks like Im the dim is getting away without accepting F-16 loss, - GOI is loosing the PR battle by not showing the various Amraam debris, H-4 Debris and intelligence officers cannot electronically smuggle 1 video of downed F-16, pilots etc. There would have been many videos taken that day but Pak had an internet blackout and filtered the videos realeased but surely in the months after that we should have been to reach videos shot in those devices.. In fact even the videos of aircraft falling begin 2 separate aircraft and different videos have not been put out.

[Kashi]

GOI is loosing the PR battle

That's been the case always, looks like GoI is least bothered about it..it's a pity.

[pankajs]

GOI is not bothered "enough" to make the extra effort ... The incentive for GOI is simply not there. Not to say that some channels wouldn't love to have a confirmation.

1. Indian public doesn't need any further proof.
2. Baki public will not believe any further proof.
3. World public does not care. What happened around Balakot simply does not resonate with them.
4. World powers but especially US, if they were so interested, would already know.

[Aditya_V]

Nope, it will definitely affect Morale on both sides, try telling anyone Pakis lied on F-16 but told the the truth on Balakot and Surgical strikes, it will not fly. It is required and important. The world govts especially US contractors working on those Paki F-16's would know the truth, If GOI puts enough effort in it the truth will come out, somehow everyone is happy keeping things under wraps.

It encourages timidity from Indians and more strategic brilliance from Pakis, more Uri's and Pulwama's- which our jawans pay in blood. Not affecting the pub hoping seminar circuit, Davos hoping Indians.

[mmasand]

Nope, it will definitely affect Morale on both sides, try telling anyone Pakis lied on F-16 but told the the truth on Balakot and Surgical strikes, it will not fly. It is required and important. The world govts especially US contractors working on those Paki F-16's would know the truth, If GOI puts enough effort in it the truth will come out, somehow everyone is happy keeping things under wraps.

It encourages timidity from Indians and more strategic brilliance from Pakis, more Uri's and Pulwama's- which our jawans pay in blood. Not affecting the pub hoping seminar circuit, Davos hoping Indians.

For 70 years they have lived under the fallacy of the 'two nation' theory, and their genes are superior than ours. What makes you think a lost aircraft will make any difference? Did Atlantique change the perception post Kargil? Quite frankly, no one in the global scheme of things could care less about a skirmish as they call it between the two countries. The perception war was lost when we went to the UN post '48. Keeping it local I believe will reap bigger benefit for India in the long run.

[pankajs]

Nope, it will definitely affect Morale on both sides, try telling anyone Pakis lied on F-16 but told the the truth on Balakot and Surgical strikes, it will not fly. It is required and important. The world govts especially US contractors working on those Paki F-16's would know the truth, If GOI puts enough effort in it the truth will come out, somehow everyone is happy keeping things under wraps.

Assuming the "anyone" is an Indian given the way you have framed the rest of the sentence.

One just as to re-visit the election results BUT more importantly the very grudging and ever so slight acknowledgment in the Modi hating section of the main stream Indian media the surprising resonance of Balakot right up to the village level! The conclusion are as follows.
a. Balakot was BIG with them.
b. They do not know or care about the F-16 saga or they believe the GOI fully.

It trouble us (I am part of this us), a *section* of the English educated Indians who interact/interface with world/baki either in person or via written material. There is no "conclusive" proof, what will the world think. Therefore, we need proof to show the world/Bakis.

Rest of the Indians educated/uneducated, in English or native languages living in urban or rural India don't just care. They are happy that Modi/GOI hit back at Bakis. Because they don't interact/interface with world/baki either in person or via written material, they do not have such reaction and don't feel the need for proof.

It encourages timidity from Indians and more strategic brilliance from Pakis, more Uri's and Pulwama's- which our jawans pay in blood. Not affecting the pub hoping seminar circuit, Davos hoping Indians.

If 1971 did not stop Bakis strategic brilliance a "proven" loss of F-16 or two won't matter.

Timidity of Indians, if any, has to have some other cause.

[Aditya_V]

It is still better to celebrate facts rather than having them disputed, it also affects Paki Army Jihadi recruitment, every time Pakis have accepted a defeat, a temporary peace forms as Jihadis morale goes down.

[Prem Kumar]

What we should do is have the MEA strongly condemn F-16 support/spares from the U.S and accuse USA of supporting terror. For proof, we need to show them AMRAAM pieces and how it was used against India.

If Trump opens his gutter-mouth about S-400 or Kashmir, we should just tell them to stop supporting terror against a so-called "friendly ally India"

With Jaishankar, I hoped we would go on the offensive. Instead, what we get is a $1B bakshish to USA in the form of a crappy NASAM purchase. Looks like Modi wants to be everyone's friend and won't react unless provoked strongly.

[Lisa]

^
https://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/p ... 16-program

To the best of my reading, its cash for a end-use monitoring team. Where does it say support or spares for the aircraft. Am I missing something?

[shyamd]

Honestly, you guys crying about F-16 support package going through is shameful. GOI was notified and approved it prior. Anything that TSP gets is now run past Dilli in line with our understanding. You think GOI and the armed forces are afraid of F16s?

[Kashi]

Honestly, you guys crying about F-16 support package going through is shameful. GOI was notified and approved it prior. Anything that TSP gets is now run past Dilli in line with our understanding. You think GOI and the armed forces are afraid of F16s?

Are you taking a p**s??

[Khalsa]

Regardless of whether we approve or not, why is it that F-16 support package bothers us.
Even the sale of attrition replacements or further fighters should not.