Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 06 Mar 2019 02:51

Out of curiosity what is ech-and-dee actually?

srin · Post by **srin** » 06 Mar 2019 02:52

ks_sachin wrote:Out of curiosity what is ech-and-dee actually?

https://sites.google.com/site/brfdictio ... sary/h/h-d

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 06 Mar 2019 02:54

It should really be ech dee & sovgity but that's too long.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 06 Mar 2019 02:59

vijayk wrote:https://theprint.in/defence/first-satel ... on/201639/

First satellite images show likely damage to Jaish Balakot camp but no massive destruction

The images accessed by ThePrint show four dark spots on roof, missing tents and burnt earth but walls and buildings intact.
Isn't what SPICE bombs do?

Guys, they are in the middle of a severe snowstorm/rain. For the past week. This is all bogus.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 06 Mar 2019 03:04

UlanBatori wrote:
vijayk wrote:https://theprint.in/defence/first-satel ... on/201639/
First satellite images show likely damage to Jaish Balakot camp but no massive destruction

Guys, they are in the middle of a severe snowstorm/rain. For the past week. This is all bogus. {Corrected: Currently clear, cold and night. OK so clear weather for flying and photo / videography}
Look, Reuters reported that they had gone to the general vicinity and believed the Pakis who told them nothing had happened.
It is a "civilian" religious educational and animal husbandry/ livestock probing research institution, hain?

What stopped Reuters from flying a done over the place (of course with Pak Polis permission) and sending clear images to settle the issue? Why have they not done that, have u considered? Why all these "Space images"? Are they afraid they will disturb the mullahs in their (never mind) with the livestock?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 06 Mar 2019 03:08

UBC, @ rajfortyseven publishing in print, is Col.Vinayak Bhatt Indian Army (rtd). He specializes in IMINT & is not given to exaggeration.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 06 Mar 2019 03:12

The "National Defence" portal is also run by likewise 400% credible patriot experts, hain? Didn't they publish "super accurate intelligence" showing Now Revealed, Before and After Photos! where the "after" was from the construction time of the resort?
With all respect to the Col (Retd), I do not get swayed by rank and titles. I go by logic, absolutely no malice or disrespect intended.

Why didn't reuters fly a drone there? (or Pakis get Reuters to fly a drone there)?

khan · Post by **khan** » 06 Mar 2019 03:16

vijayk wrote:https://theprint.in/defence/first-satel ... on/201639/

First satellite images show likely damage to Jaish Balakot camp but no massive destruction

The images accessed by ThePrint show four dark spots on roof, missing tents and burnt earth but walls and buildings intact.
Isn't what SPICE bombs do?

If this picture is genuine and the analysis correct, then those Bakis went through a horrible time. They were fragged while sleeping inside the building. The survivors that got out, were burnt alive.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 06 Mar 2019 03:20

UlanBatori wrote:The "National Defence" portal is also run by likewise 400% credible patriot experts, hain? Didn't they publish "super accurate intelligence" showing Now Revealed, Before and After Photos! where the "after" was from the construction time of the resort?
With all respect to the Col (Retd), I do not get swayed by rank and titles. I go by logic, absolutely no malice or disrespect intended.

Why didn't reuters fly a drone there? (or Pakis get Reuters to fly a drone there)?

National Defence portal? Which is this?

You aren't getting the point, raj47 has a long history of doing this sort of stuff. PRINT is just the channel that publishes his stuff. They are mischeivous. They likely put in the line about "Modi/ ruling BJP" in the first para. He should have known better to allow that sort of thing.

https://twitter.com/rajfortyseven?ref_s ... r%5Eauthor

Otherwise, we can take look at his timeline and see whether he is a credible patriot (and more importantly a competent one!) or not.

(See the languages btw he is publishing in, to ensure people behind "great walls" spread desi POV far and wide).

Note though, he only has (in his rtd existence) access to unclassified lower rez pics and no access to HUMINT and TECHINT.

Casualty figures, by GOI, will be derived from mix of all 3 (assigning credence to each source in an apt manner).

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 06 Mar 2019 03:26

khan wrote:If this picture is genuine and the analysis correct, then those Bakis went through a horrible time. They were fragged while sleeping inside the building. The survivors that got out, were burnt alive.

Quite similar to what they do to civilians and then the CRPF guys at Pulwama, right?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 06 Mar 2019 03:26

Karanji:

And you are not getting my point. Rank and titles don't matter. Logic does. Please read and think. You are an admin, you can delete my post if it makes Honorable Retired IA Aphsars uncomfortable. But they need to face the truth, which is that they get laughed at for posting stuff that is easily debunked.

4 holes showing penetration of 4 SPICE? Clustered around bullseye? Seen a week after the event? I hope that's what happened, and that each exploded on a different floor.
But I think smoke and soot and rubble should show, except it is now over week since the incident. Pakis closed off the area right away, and must have been in damage coverup mode since then. There was heavy cloud cover/rain for a couple of days, which helped them get all the signs cleared.
So I am surprised that the 4 holes remain to be seen. It would have been a simple matter to put a tarp over those and put a white cloth over that. Voila! No damage.
Ppl need to quit this infantile urge to Find First Corroborative Data and publish it without elementary use of the Littal Gray Cells as Ercule Pwarot might say.
Face it. IAF/ISRO/other entities are not releasing any images. It was raining/cloudy there next day after the attack and for some days. ANYTHING seen now is bogus. it is what Pakis intend for us to see.

IF there was little damage etc, Reuters would have published drone image to laugh at the Indians. With blessings from the Pakis.
So enough "analysis of Images".

Vivasvat · Post by **Vivasvat** » 06 Mar 2019 03:28

Q - Why use costly SPICE when conventional low cost dumb bombs would have done the job and caused much more visible destruction?

A - To send a message to the PA that their fortified nuke storages are not safe. We can SPICE up their underground sites accurately and in deep Pakistani territory.

May the gurus opine...

khan · Post by **khan** » 06 Mar 2019 03:34

Karan M wrote:
khan wrote:If this picture is genuine and the analysis correct, then those Bakis went through a horrible time. They were fragged while sleeping inside the building. The survivors that got out, were burnt alive.
Quite similar to what they do to civilians and then the CRPF guys at Pulwama, right?

That’s right! I hope they declassify the whole operation and the damage assessment with pictures

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 06 Mar 2019 03:40

UBC, I only delete those which are A) Pro-Pak propaganda B ) Run down India/Indians using stupid logic (far too many of those I am sad to say even now), and C) Abusive posts. Since your post doesn't meet any of the above criteria (hopefully, don't expect a barrage of complaints), no deletion here.

Now, lets get to the point,

#1. The Pakis are notoriously slap dash with cover-ups. Some low level afsar may well have let those craters remain, small holes only. I have covered with sheets etc. This is the country which sent NLI to India, with information tags, rank badges etc all with them & then denied they existed.

#2 The SPICE bombs may well have been fed with similar imagery and clustered at a specific place, like you said with fusing set for different floors.

#3 Also the sat imagery he is using (unlike ISRO/IAF etc) is commercial. The reason those guys aren't showing off their sat imagery is pretty obvious. The capability of our stuff will be open. I am pretty sure they are waiting for a more declass version to release for public consumption, but which also gets the point across.

#4 The SPICE craters that he shows are remarkably similar to what the IAF has from its own SPICE evaluation in 2015 or thereabouts. The pictures have been posted earlier.

#5 I suspect he doesn't quite understand how the bomb is, and the way its set up (shrapnel or soft targets vs pure blast). He's going purely by bomb size, weight class. Also, no real link to IAF guys who are more versed with the after effects of their specific munitions.

#6 I wouldn't be surprised if some ppl contacted him & provided the information as to where he should take the commercial imagery from (otherwise how would he know the specific spots)

#7 Lets not assume our side doesn't put out disinfo, the entire "we only used SPICE 2000s like good boys because we really didnt want to cross the LOC but you see there was wind" etc. I can quote two things. There are other munitions rumored to have been involved & as well as the distance to the target speaks for itself in that case.

#8. In which case his comment about FAE may well be true.

#9. Pakis are maximalists. They want to back up DGISPR and pretend the raid had zero damage. Of any sort.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 06 Mar 2019 03:42

Vivasvat wrote:Q - Why use costly SPICE when conventional low cost dumb bombs would have done the job and caused much more visible destruction?

Please study up on the Spice series and then think whether such a question is even valid.

Regular bombs could not do the job.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 06 Mar 2019 03:45

Vivasvat wrote:Q - Why use costly SPICE when conventional low cost dumb bombs would have done the job and caused much more visible destruction?

A - To send a message to the PA that their fortified nuke storages are not safe. We can SPICE up their underground sites accurately and in deep Pakistani territory.

The Indian inventory has far more bombs than just the SPICE to target their underground sites etc. It was merely IAF choosing right tools for the job.

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 06 Mar 2019 03:54

Vivasvat wrote:Q - Why use costly SPICE when conventional low cost dumb bombs would have done the job and caused much more visible destruction?

A - To send a message to the PA that their fortified nuke storages are not safe. We can SPICE up their underground sites accurately and in deep Pakistani territory.

May the gurus opine...

Costly? When you're crossing the LOC first time in almost 5 decades and that too to neutralise 300?

Vivasvat · Post by **Vivasvat** » 06 Mar 2019 04:01

JTull wrote:
Vivasvat wrote:Q - Why use costly SPICE when conventional low cost dumb bombs would have done the job and caused much more visible destruction?.

May the gurus opine...
Costly? When you're crossing the LOC first time in almost 5 decades and that too to neutralise 300?

You're right. Very little price to pay in that context.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 06 Mar 2019 04:56

I guess we can conclude IAF tore them a new hole (or four) that night. Ouch.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 06 Mar 2019 04:58

Vivasvat wrote:Q - Why use costly SPICE when conventional low cost dumb bombs would have done the job and caused much more visible destruction?
.

LoL....we have decided to cross the LoC/IB and the first thing we are going to be doing is deciding which bomb is the least expensive. Please lurk before posting.

-M

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Mar 2019 04:59

I think DRDO design of Garuda and Garuthma are Desi SPICE 2000.
The Garuthma has wings, onboard guidance and a 1000 kg payload with 100 km range.
Garuda is same with smaller wings and 30 km range.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 06 Mar 2019 05:29

I would suggest new members to lurk and read old threads kargil 26/11 pathankot uri attack threads before ranting here. You can search for posts from rudradev, ramana, shiv, rohitvats, karanM, brar_w, singha, rakesh, sshridhar, suraj, Abhibhushan, kancha (not in any order all are superb). You will learn a lot. All the mods are mods because the deserve to be mods.

Assuming the usage of spice question was a genuine question, the reason was that in that attack XX kg of explosive (whatever that be) was used through VBIED. That led to bodies not in a state of visual recognition. Now as UBCN mentioned this was a serious escalation. We wanted to send a message and that message was you're burnt what you're gonna use with 72s? Should 5th largest economy always do bean counting? WIth the opponents we face, fear is something that keeps them in check (at least for some time)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Mar 2019 05:39

srai's post about two years ago on SPICE integration on M2K.
Enjoy....

viewtopic.php?p=2143271#p2143271

chola · Post by **chola** » 06 Mar 2019 05:51

A_Gupta wrote:
chola wrote:[
They named two: Hassan and Noman. Depending on the day they flipflop between one or the other taking credit for Abhi’s MiG-21 and an imaginary SU-30.

They are all over Paki press and social media.
Do they say which squadron?

Supposedly "Tailchoppers" Sqd 14

They were pushing the following

Wing Commander Faheem

Squadron Leader Hassan

Flight Lieutenant Noman

in the operation.

If you want to look into their charade --
https://twitter.com/TheHawksOps/status/ ... 8386323456

Indian Mig-21 Bison was shot down by a PAF JF-17 Thunder Block-II Serial Number: 15-201, assigned to No: 14 Tailchoppers Squadron. Flown by Squadron Leader #HassanSiddique, formerly an F-16 Pilot from No: 9 Griffins Squadron.

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 06 Mar 2019 05:53

Karan M wrote:
#2 The SPICE bombs may well have been fed with similar imagery and clustered at a specific place, like you said with fusing set for different floors.
...

Gurudev(s)

Some clarification on the above point. Is SPICE 2000 just a PGM kit that you strap on to a "dumb" bomb OR is it a bomb in itself?
If its just a dumb bomb then how do you make sure that you penetrate the roof and choose to detonate on the top floor, middle floor or the bottom floor?

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 06 Mar 2019 05:55

The narrative around Operation Balakot now has the potential to solidify thus: India launched a pre-emptive strike on JeM terror camps. In retaliation to this defensive anti-terrorism measure, Pakistan used F-16s in an act of military aggression.

The powerful second part of the narrative is based on the entirely unexpected windfall of recovering AMRAAM debris in India. In the grand scheme of things, all of the rest including damage to Balakot or even the shooting down of the F-16 is noise.

This narrative is deadly not only for Pakistan but also for Pakistan's plentiful supporters in the American establishment. The only way Pakistan can wriggle out of this is to present a semi-credible argument showing that it used the F-16s in self defense against a larger Indian aggression.

So what happens now? Things will calm down. Nothing else was planned except Balakot. There was no additional component to the pre-emptive entirely self defense wathchamacallit. Maybe there will be some indiscreet murmurs, maybe some peacenik will leak something to the contrary, but let's move on. In the immortal words of Mushrat, nothing is happening on the LoC.

You know why I think this is how it will all play out? That Modi speech in Ahmedabad. I know what you all heard, but I heard something slightly different. I heard him telling his staunchest supporters, "So long as I am the leader of India, I will continue to show Her enemies what I am capable of". In much stronger words of course, but he only speaks that strongly when he is not actually going to do it. Before he does something or when he is doing it, he goes stone cold silent.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 06 Mar 2019 06:08

Folks in here are unnecessarily getting angst, angina, blood pressure, asthma attack, heart attack, panic attack, etc and for what?

Because opposition political parties are demanding photographic evidence of the air strikes from the Govt? Because you cannot resist the urge to visit a Paki propaganda twitter account or some similar social media account? Because you insist on reading NYT, WaPo, etc and then come in here and whine & complain? Please read this below and stop hyper ventilating....

1) The Indian Air Force struck JeM infrastructure and terrorists on Feb 27th. That is what the Indian Air Force has said it did. Just like in the "Fake" Rafale Scam, think why a military institution - like the air force - would need to lie? What honestly do you think they can gain from such a lie? This is YOUR air force. Believe them when they say what they did.

2) Releasing all info and pictures might satisfy you, till you read the next NYT and WaPo article. But in the real world, releasing such kind of data will reveal your capabilities to the enemy. No Air Force, worth its salt, will do such a thing. Do not expect to see anything.

3) The Indian Air Force shot down a F-16 on Feb 28th and lost a MiG-21 Bison on the same day, in the same conflict. It is amazing how folks in here will lap up the story of the MiG-21 Bison, but not the F-16. The F-16 being shot down been verified by eye witness accounts (Wing Commander Varthaman being the prime account) and other assets i.e. Netra AEW&C.

4) This is not a game of battleship. You lost one F-16 and we lost one MiG-21. But since there is no wreckage of F-16, my air force is useless onlee. So let me drown my sorrows in Johnny Walker Black Label. Let me also be despondent and take the mood of the forum down with me. Because I am a budhoo who refuses to think for a second!

5) This is the MOST IMPORTANT take away from the Balakot Strikes (and the preceding Surgical Strikes). This is now the new norm for Pakistan. You send your terrorists to hit us and you will get a nice thappad. You can hide that fact from your local populace, but to the movers & shakers in Pakistan...they will feel the weight of the thappad. The dice is now in Pakistan's hands. How they roll the dice, will determine India's next move.

6) This is also now the new norm for India. The average citizen in India now knows that our military can strike and hit at targets of choosing, anywhere in Pakistan. The average citizen in India also takes tremendous pride in the fact that we no longer have to be eunuchs. NaMo has called Pakistan's nuclear bluff and crossed that line. And Pakistan did not do sh!t in return. Now even a future Congress-led Govt has to strike in retaliation for future terrorist attacks. That is the beauty of what NaMo has done. If RaGa does not strike, he will face the wrath and ire of the Indian populace. Strike he must or face the consequences.

People...look at the BIG picture and not at F-16, MiG-21, holes in JeM camps, what some Paki is saying on social media, etc.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 06 Mar 2019 06:13

^^7) We inform the world that we humilated pakistan and eventually let the world know

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 06 Mar 2019 06:28

may be i am late to mention, but baki is fully open lot of planes flying out there and there. Still close to indian border they are still flying

komal · Post by **komal** » 06 Mar 2019 06:42

ArjunPandit wrote:may be i am late to mention, but baki is fully open lot of planes flying out there and there. Still close to indian border they are still flying

Looking at Flightradar24 -- looks like India is enforcing a NO FLY zone over Pakistan except for two narrow air corridors.

What I have also noticed are flights to India are allowed into the NO FLY zone.

Right now there is a flight from Kiev to Delhi overflying Pakistan to enter India. I saw the AI Tel Aviv flight to India use the same route. Only planes that have been in that corridor.

Ravi Karumanchiri · Post by **Ravi Karumanchiri** » 06 Mar 2019 06:49

anishns wrote:
Karan M wrote:
#2 The SPICE bombs may well have been fed with similar imagery and clustered at a specific place, like you said with fusing set for different floors.
...
Gurudev(s)

Some clarification on the above point. Is SPICE 2000 just a PGM kit that you strap on to a "dumb" bomb OR is it a bomb in itself?
If its just a dumb bomb then how do you make sure that you penetrate the roof and choose to detonate on the top floor, middle floor or the bottom floor?

^^^^^^^
Just because there are beoble here who can answer such a question; doesn't mean it ijn't ishtill preferable to Google it yourself...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spice_(bomb)

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 06 Mar 2019 06:51

komal wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:may be i am late to mention, but baki is fully open lot of planes flying out there and there. Still close to indian border they are still flying
Looking at Flightradar24 -- looks like India is enforcing a NO FLY zone over Pakistan except for two narrow air corridors.

What I have also noticed are flights to India are allowed into the NO FLY zone.

Right now there is a flight from Kiev to Delhi overflying Pakistan to enter India. I saw the AI Tel Aviv flight to India use the same route. Only planes that have been in that corridor.

Ignoramus that I am how can India enforce a no fly zone over Pakistan without there being a state of war or are you saying dont fly to India from over Pakistan.

komal · Post by **komal** » 06 Mar 2019 06:57

^
Not a diplomat. Just showing the result and speculating on the cause. Pakistan and international flights are only using the two corridors. Flights to India seem to have no restriction.

khan · Post by **khan** » 06 Mar 2019 07:11

komal wrote:^
Not a diplomat. Just showing the result and speculating on the cause. Pakistan and international flights are only using the two corridors. Flights to India seem to have no restriction.

There are issues with flightradar24 data. There are no overflights happening over Pakistan and their own traffic is restricted to a few corridors by their Western border.

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 06 Mar 2019 07:15

Chinmayanand wrote:Watch it and comment. In war games , paki NASR comes out dud. Pakis can not use it against Cold start.

I think gurus here can better understand and comment.

Nice talk, someone with better knowledge of deterrence might want to comment.

Dileep · Post by **Dileep** » 06 Mar 2019 07:16

Same place onlee saar

:

viewtopic.php?p=2326003&sid=2c94716d0af ... c#p2326003

A_Gupta wrote:
vijayk wrote:https://theprint.in/defence/first-satel ... on/201639/

First satellite images show likely damage to Jaish Balakot camp but no massive destruction

Isn't what SPICE bombs do?
Wonder why none of these folks publish the coordinates of what they're looking at.

Bishwa · Post by **Bishwa** » 06 Mar 2019 08:00

34.4635716,73.3184342

I believe RajFortySeven is looking at this

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Mar 2019 08:08

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 276503.cms

Pak has started the process of recreating the tribal lashkars and levies of khyber pakhtoonwa region.

this can mean only one thing - preparing the orcs for the coming afghan civil war where they will melt in as taliban formations, with a liberal dose of ex-PA artillery and comms cadre . this is the same combo that took kabul, herat, kandahar for the taliban after the soviets left and the afghan national govt became weaker.on the eve of 9/11 only a thin area in north was under the northern alliance, incl the panjshir valley ... ahmed shah massoud had been assassinated by a suicide bomber disguised as a journalist

as we speak the talibans are poised just few miles from several major cities like mazar e sharif and kandahar and their writ runs in the countryside, while americans+afghans rule the cities.

americans are relying more and more on C17 pallets as the hold of afghan army on lines of road comms weakens.

there is going to be a bloodbath , and the cycle will repeat again.

iran will have to deploy its local, iraqi and syrian shia militias to protect its own buffer zone in the west, centered on Herat, else massacres of shia minorities are also certain.

as for the hazaras, they will have to move north from wherever they are and pray the taliban dont catch up.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Mar 2019 08:16

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 278310.cms

confirmation from IAF that multiple amraams were fired on the center formation of 4 su30 from across the border, by the 4 f16 near the mangla dam.
having an awacs really helped.

they were all dodged, outran, defeated by EW

the limitations of current bvr aams in tail chase mode on supersonic targets is well known.....effective range would be <= 20km which was the separation between the two formations if not more. su30s would have accelerated away from 900kmph to mach1.5+

we might have fired back similarly in return from the southern pair of Mirage200upg, which may explain why the costly Denel Raptor2 was just discarded by the laden JF17/M3/M5 as they turned back and accelerated away from inbound S530/mica.

venkat_r · Post by **venkat_r** » 06 Mar 2019 08:22

Rakesh wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote:can GE be postponed for say six months..??
That my dear Doctor, is a recipe for disaster. Opposition parties will be up in arms claiming that Modi has declared a dictatorship. The political capital that Modi has from 2014 to date will evaporate like a fart in the wind. The BJP will lose spectacularly and then you will have RaGa sitting in the PM’s chair after the delayed GE are done.

Just continue with the GE as planned. No need to postpone anything. The Prime Minister will win a second term.

BJP is also a political party and Modi is a politician, foolish to lose this opportunity - in fact if anything they would milk it as much as possible. Not saying that the attacks were for elections, but Who will give away the advantage?