Atmavik wrote:sorry to bring politics into this thread but looks like D'Imaran khan Niazi's goose is cooked. wait for the calls of Yahoodi Aagent soon.
Totally. Bakistani Army is only waiting to figure out who will be the next chicken.
In the meantime, looks like the airspace around Bakistan is closed until Monday. In effect, India created a no-fly zone over Bakistan for 6 days.
Bakistanis should go back to normalcy before the next hammer comes. But for now, the current round is over. Do not assume that hammer is *not* going to come
As I see it, here is where we stand now given the background:
1. Jihadis needed to do something big. The jihadi project in cashmere is down to its last legs and losing in war of attrition.
2. No "spectacular" attack has been done in a while. A big "win" was necessary. Planning for targeting the convoy in Pulwama must have been in works for a while. They needed to smuggle in RDX in smaller amounts and assemble it. The entire planning and targeting must have taken months.
3. 26/11 was a water shed. It was to also test the red lines of India and the world. Post 26/11, nothing happened to the master minds of the terrorist attack. Hafeez Suar is still roaming scott free. World did some hoo-ha and went back to its business.
Bakis felt secure about their nuclear blackmail. It had succeeded.
4. Uri was a localized strike. With a surgical strike back from India, they were cornered. Since now targeted strikes (which carry much risk) will invite targeted strike back and they will again lose the war via attrition.
5. Bakistani economy is sinking and hence the funds for the Jehadi project also shrinks and for all the resources they suck in, they have nothing to show. Absolutely nothing.
6. US vacating Upaghanistan and Robin Raphael sent as negotiator made the ISI jump with glee. They thought that they have won the war and now can up the ante on Cashmere.
Pulwama happened. BRF as much predicted that a major attack is forthcoming and one (I forget the name) even predicted IEDs.GOI retaliated, they went in and did a chaddi-utaro (shorts pulldown) of Bakistan and bombed JEM to smithereens.
They did not think GOI could do this. They did not realize that their PAF was totally rotten to the core that they could not even guard their skies and intercept.
Then they retaliated. They sent in the biggest strike package they could muster and in the process lost their F-16. On top of it, they had to release the WingCo who lorded over them. In 2 days.
And they are completely isolated diplomatically. Bakistan is the founding member of OIC and they boycotted it and their boycott was welcomed., India's MEA Shrimati Sushma Swaraj is an eminent invited guest at Organization of Islamic Countries and delivers a keynote with quotes from Rigveda and talks about religious harmony and everybody agrees that terrorism is scourge of humanity
They might have as well lost their nukular marbles to S. Barbaria.
This does not end. Bakis have to shutdown their airspace for 6 days. "Modi ayenga" (Modi will come) keeps them awake entire night.
In a nutshell, India has called out Bakistan's nuclear bluff. India can carry out Non-Military Pre-emptive Strike anywhere in Bakistan and at anytime
Cost of the Jihad project in Bakistan has now gone up exponentially. If they do any major attack, they must be prepared for a strike on their nation anywhere from land, air and sea (or all three) and they will have to shut their nation down for days. Even if India thinks that they are planning something and carries out a strike on bakistan, bakis have to cower down and slink into a corner shivering in their salwars.
They cannot rebuild their military without rebuilding their economy. The cost to rebuild their economy is tremendous. Nobody wants to invest in a country where their investment goes poof just because a Jihadi gets religion and blows himself (or herself) up.
Their Jihad patron S. Barbaria is going through a generation change. They are trying to get off the Jehad bandwagon. It is not helping them.
In a space of four years, S. Barbaria has lost 10% of its peak GDP. In that same interval, India added @7x the loss of S. Barbaria's GDP. And of course S. Barbaria's GDP is based mostly on oil exports which most likely will vanish away by 2040 (just 21 years from now).
In nutshell, S. Barbaria cannot continue funding the Jihad project. It was the Jihad + Oil with ample help from former UK and later US which got the Saudis and keeping them in power. Jihad is inviting them trouble and to stay in power then need to start earning from their investments. India is their investment target. UAE is planning to invest $75 B in India. $100 B from Saudi Barbaria. By the decade is out, ME will be planning to invest some $ 200 B in India.
One cannot continue to fund Jehad against a nation in which you are investing.
The biggest benefactor of Bakistan, S. Barbaria is looking due east and towards India. Former-UK has to worry about its own economy, leave alone Brexit. France has thrown its lot behind India. Germany has to sort out its political mess and anyway it is the largest trading partner in the block. They are worried about crossfire between US-China.
China is losing its political dog in N. Korea and has no further appetite to take on US in other spheres. It needs to sort out its economic relations with US and also ensure that South China sea does not become Vietnam or Malay or Indonesia or Philippine sea. It has the least appetite of all to have its rogue dog in Bakistan running around biting others. And of course it does not want its investments in Bakistan go down the drain just because a Jihadi got religion. At best, they will turn a benign eye to Baki shenanigans but will not come swinging for Bakistan.
In nutshell, in past 5 days, the entire strategic scenario has changed in Middle East, South and South East Asia. A new power has emerged and Bakistan has to learn to deal with it. It needs to either shutdown its Jihad factory or shut itself down. There is no two ways about it.Welcome to the regional super power.
PS: Apologies to bring economics on this thread. But it needs to be understood. Bakistan is being choked economically, diplomatically and militarily.