Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

[JayS]

Flightradar24 tweet: Pakistan has again extended the general closure of its airspace for additional 24 hrs till 6th March 08:00 UTC.

What are they gaining from this?

Saving Jet fuel...? Reducing visibility of scale of their rattling..?

[Karan M]

Why bring up that guy now..

[Karan M]

What are they gaining from this?

Saving Jet fuel...? Reducing visibility of scale of their rattling..?

Wont any foreign airlines etc into Pak pay for their jet fuel?
So, let me see, they are afraid that civvie ops would use up jet fuel, even if its paid for, and before its replenished, India may attack.

Hmm.. makes sense.

Showing that they are ready

How would this kind of messaging help their case..

One thing though, with no civvie aircraft around, both sides can go BVR if need be. Perhaps the Pakis want that to be there..

[Paul]

corrected

[dipak]

Why bring up that guy now..

Just reminded of him how his long posts boasted about his high connections and as if he is watching it from distance without feeling pain and much concern.
Till, shiv and others shown him the mirror.

Lets leave it at that.

[Barath]

he has learnt from the putin and trump playbook.

Much older playbook than that. Reagan cultivated this "Mad Bomber" image towards the end of the Cold War and got the Soviet Union to bankrupt itself by trying and failing to match US defence spending.

Reagan had two phases in his presidency.

In the first phase (including pre-election) he was a saber rattler, who accused Carter of going soft (because Carter cancelled the B1 in favor of the stealth (and initially secret) B2). He favored a massive military build up, made speeches of "evil empire" etc. This along with Soviet paranoia , US psychological warfare by USAF bombers in continuous mock runs at the USSR border; Able Archer exercises, etc was the background to a nuclear scare.

Later Reagan looked Gorbachev in the eye and decided he could trust him and opened talks with him, both aiding and pushing him towards reforms.

While Reagan believed that the USSR economy was stagnant compared to the US, it was not as straightforward as setting out to bankrupt the USSR; the USSR had been locked into a problematical situation economically and Gorbachev's reforms actually made things worse for the economy..

Reagan's voodoo economics/supply side economics were also responsible for the US running up (then) record deficits.

[AdityaM]

Check this thread by
https://twitter.com/greatgameindia/stat ... 02851?s=21

[tapan]

i would have actually loved VK SIngh and Dhanoa do the 1st press conf after the raid.. the babus just came..read a para and ran away ...not v graceful.

Strategy more important than grace.

[ranneel]

If you look at the aircraft's bearings move in that video looks like the sub is taking a course of 110 degree which means that it is moving NW to SE which means it is moving into international waters after finishing it's job at that pork shop called Gwadar.

[yensoy]

In related news, Global Times chief editor has been hired by the Dawn group.

"This great feat is a testament of the Pakistan Navy's superior skills. The Navy will keep defending Pakistan's naval border. The force has the capability to respond to any aggression."
https://www.dawn.com/news/1467778/pakistan-navy-foils-attempt-by-indian-submarine-to-enter-pakistani-waters

[Kakarat]

https://twitter.com/kakarat2001/status/ ... 2463760384
My views on the video released by Pakistan on Indian submarine based on the image from @ShivAroor. By comparing it with images of INS Kalvari & Agosta it implies that the sub in the video is Pakistani

[ranneel]

https://twitter.com/kakarat2001/status/1102885082463760384
My views on the video released by Pakistan on Indian submarine based on the image from @ShivAroor. By comparing it with images of INS Kalvari & Agosta it implies that the sub in the video is Pakistani

It sure is ...as it is moving fast with a bearing of 110 degrees close to the Pakistani maritime zone.

[mmasand]

What are they gaining from this?

Saving Jet fuel...? Reducing visibility of scale of their rattling..?

Defo saving whatever stock of Jet A1 and JP8. Cross-posting from another thread.

The air space closure had little to do with fear of IAF as much as the the lack of strategic reserves of JP8 . In fact, the loans doled out by MBS and MBZ were to give sovereign guarantees(LC's) so they could purchase fuel from the open market. The fuel farms at KHI were at 55% capacity (JV between Attock/PSOC/NRL/Shell).

[A_Gupta]

From twitter:

Reuben Abraham
‏ @nebuer42

Not trolling, but asking from genuine curiosity. Why isn't Pakistan naming the pilot who shot our MiG down? From their perspective, he ought be a hero, like Wing Co Abhi is in India, and feted as one. What am I missing here?

[chola]

From twitter:

Reuben Abraham
‏ @nebuer42

Not trolling, but asking from genuine curiosity. Why isn't Pakistan naming the pilot who shot our MiG down? From their perspective, he ought be a hero, like Wing Co Abhi is in India, and feted as one. What am I missing here?

They named two: Hassan and Noman. Depending on the day they flipflop between one or the other taking credit for Abhi’s MiG-21 and an imaginary SU-30.

They are all over Paki press and social media.

[Manish_Sharma]

There is a third option.

He meant it.

If we see this speech along with the one at ISKON, wherein he says "we have to do what we must not care about the threat to our lives" etc (paraphrasing).. it seems somethings changed & he is in it for a kill/decisive finish, not electioneering or a temporary win etc.

These words should be etched in Gold.

Being in the Hot Seat, having full Singhavlokan of past how familia run ConParty-commies-gujral-mms have weakened Bharat's Security in past deliberately.

Seeing how future mamta-stalin-raul-kejri-lalu family will again repeat the same.

He knows the burden falls upon him, to do the toughest works.

Brihaspati ji has pointed that whichever PM crosses international border e.g. Shastri, Indira, Rajiv is assasinated and Anglo powers will go after Modi now. He has decided to solve problem of Porkistan.

He will end it!

THE MAN DOESN'T WORRY ABOUT HIS OWN LIFE, LEAVE ALONE ELECTIONS.

[Bishwa]

Flightradar24 tweet: Pakistan has again extended the general closure of its airspace for additional 24 hrs till 6th March 08:00 UTC.

What are they gaining from this?

It likely means they can shoot at any aircraft which enters their airspace.... and also saves fuel...

[Shaktimaan]

News is coming in that the Pakis have arrested Abdul Rauf Asghar, the brother of Masood Azhar along with 44 other JeM members.

Smart Rakshaks know this is simply protective custody, as yesterday Modiji threatened to follow them into Pataal itself to eliminate them.

[UlanBatori]

^
IMO it was Masood's diyar birather by one of their 4 fathers who got pes-e-sha'eed at Balako. It was his Palace and goat-harem after all.
To boost moral-e-pest, they broadcast "his" voice promising to conquer Yindoostan etc. - and had a mock funeral for whatever parts they found. They announced that it was Masood who had died.
Check the timings and u'll c y v say this. Win-win, Paki style.

[A_Gupta]

[
They named two: Hassan and Noman. Depending on the day they flipflop between one or the other taking credit for Abhi’s MiG-21 and an imaginary SU-30.

They are all over Paki press and social media.

Do they say which squadron?

[Bart S]

Pakistan decided to take over madrasahs of banned outfits and recruit their members in para-military troops in December 2018 but implementation delayed due to financial constraints now Govt decided to allocate funds for this project in coming budget @Asad_Umar

That is great news for India. Nothing better than hypocritical Paki awam having to deal with these radicalized illiterate yahoos roaming their neighborhoods and enforcing sharia. Let them get a taste of what their Taliban put Afghans through.

[Singha]

US also has a proposal to recruit the taliban into the local afghan police/army "absorb misguided youth into the mainstream"

two sides of the durand line are merging, with both sets of jihadis poised to don the uniform.

[Rahul M]

But they have two reasons to try it.

One, the colossal demand for revenge they must be facing from the Tanzeems, especially the barbequed Jaish, especially if Masood Azhar got some extra-high-pressure dialysis on Feb 26.

Two, the *chance* that such a strike would embarrass Modi (over his claims to have taught a lesson at Balakot) in the very short time window to GE 2019. Of course this ploy could backfire BIG time and hand Modi a bigger victory than ever, depending on how things turn out.

But they are the world's most tactically brilliant regime.

What do you think they will do?

They will try to time the attacks just before the GE and during it. So that the govt would be distracted with three things at once, elections, defending against the attacks and formulating a riposte.
Pakis would be hoping that the first two factors would sap all the effort and energy of the govt leading to goof-ups in executing the 3rd factor which would bolster their image in front of awam and also dampen modi's chances in GE2019, which is probably as good an outcome as any they can hope for.

[DrRatnadip]

can GE be postponed for say six months..??

[Singha]

the legendary "haiders,bandits,ghazis" of PNS Masroor mirage3/5 please note

[nam]

If there is another terror attack, the template is already set. IAF will be flying in action. Paks know this. Even if they attack during election, GoI will put GE on hold and will be hammering Pak. Once done, the GE will continue. As simple as that.

Does not matter if "Non-State" without support of State or "Non-state" with support of State did it.

They have been getting away so far, because we did not respond.

[Rakesh]

can GE be postponed for say six months..??

That my dear Doctor, is a recipe for disaster. Opposition parties will be up in arms claiming that Modi has declared a dictatorship. The political capital that Modi has from 2014 to date will evaporate like a fart in the wind. The BJP will lose spectacularly and then you will have RaGa sitting in the PM’s chair after the delayed GE are done.

Just continue with the GE as planned. No need to postpone anything. The Prime Minister will win a second term.

[Singha]

per scramble.nl which may be outdated, the home base of the sherdils was a place on outskirts of hyderabad NE of karachi, on banks of indus in the sindh desert called bholari

https://www.google.nl/maps/place//@25.2 ... !1s0x0:0x0

the base itself is large but with sparse buildings. 2 solid looking runways.

the F-16s are put up in the most secure of bases, well away from the front - sargodha and jacobabad as home ports, with detachments in other places on demand basis...only Bholari(sherdils) is a bit forward.

[yensoy]

per scramble.nl which may be outdated, the home base of the sherdils was a place on outskirts of hyderabad NE of karachi, on banks of indus in the sindh desert called bholari
https://www.google.nl/maps/place//@25.2 ... !1s0x0:0x0
the base itself is large but with sparse buildings. 2 solid looking runways.

the F-16s are put up in the most secure of bases, well away from the front - sargodha and jacobabad as home ports, with detachments in other places on demand basis...only Bholari(sherdils) is a bit forward.

That's one runway and one taxiway which of course could be used as a runway in a crunch. And hardened shelters for one squadron (16) on the SW side and presumably a mirror on the NE side for 2 squadrons. Of course this is not a forward base, but could cover the maritime areas in the event of hostilities.

[khan]

https://twitter.com/kakarat2001/status/1102885082463760384
My views on the video released by Pakistan on Indian submarine based on the image from @ShivAroor. By comparing it with images of INS Kalvari & Agosta it implies that the sub in the video is Pakistani

Honestly don’t understand Baki thought process in posting videos that are debunked in 2-3 hours. Lowers their own credibility. When there is an actual Indian sub there, no one will believe them.

[Gyan]

News is coming in that the Pakis have arrested Abdul Rauf Asghar, the brother of Masood Azhar along with 44 other JeM members.

Smart Rakshaks know this is simply protective custody, as yesterday Modiji threatened to follow them into Pataal itself to eliminate them.

Housing of Terrorists in Police & Military cantonments by Pak Govt with armed protection is not arrest but provision of State Guaranteed Safety

[Vivasvat]

[komal]

Honestly don’t understand Baki thought process in posting videos that are debunked in 2-3 hours. Lowers their own credibility.

Provides ammo for Digvijay Singh, Kapil Saibal, Begum Mamata to press the point home for the Pakis.

[Trikaal]

News is coming in that the Pakis have arrested Abdul Rauf Asghar, the brother of Masood Azhar along with 44 other JeM members.

Smart Rakshaks know this is simply protective custody, as yesterday Modiji threatened to follow them into Pataal itself to eliminate them.

Housing of Terrorists in Police & Military cantonments by Pak Govt with armed protection is not arrest but provision of State Guaranteed Safety

Not for the stupid we have this side of the border who are looking for any opportunity to jump at the chance to discredit the current govt.

[schinnas]

can GE be postponed for say six months..??

That my dear Doctor, is a recipe for disaster. Opposition parties will be up in arms claiming that Modi has declared a dictatorship. The political capital that Modi has from 2014 to date will evaporate like a fart in the wind. The BJP will lose spectacularly and then you will have RaGa sitting in the PM’s chair after the delayed GE are done.

Just continue with the GE as planned. No need to postpone anything. The Prime Minister will win a second term.

+ 108. This would actually work in Modi's favor. Given the high force deployment and high alert, executing terror attacks will be more difficult going forward than it has been so far, secondly, Indian govt would have already formulated strategies and gamed several likely scenarios including retaliation by Terroristan and counter retaliation by India and the escalation ladder.

The election will go undeterred. Given how Pulwama has helped bolster Modi's image and would have severly damaged Paki economy on life support, major mischief is unlikely. Even Dimran's popularity would have been severly dented had F-16 fell on India side or Abhinandan fell on India's side. But Pakis are known to be tactically brilliant and strategically suicidal. So highest level of alert will be in place for next 3 months.

If Uri surgical strikes were any indication, I have a strong suspicion that govt will slowly release undeniable proofs of efficacy of Balakot attack and F16 being down closer to election.

[Gyan]

can GE be postponed for say six months..??

To my limited understanding, next session of Lok Sabha has to be called within 6 months of last session of Lok Sabha

The last session of Lok Sabha was on 13 February 2019 therefore the next session must be called before 13th August 2019

The tenure of Lok Sabha is only 5 years and therefore elections are held in a manner that a new lok sabha can be called before the expiry of 5 years

The present members of Lok Sabha was sworn in on 5th June 2014 therefore in normal course the new members of Lok Sabha should be sworn in before 4th June 2019

at present the indications are that elections will be announced in the second week of march and held in April may 2019 so that the next Lok Sabha can be constituted in may June 2019

Pakistan is trying to do it's best to pass 2 weeks. once elections are declared, security forces will have to mobilize for internal security duties and war would not be an option

election commission can easily postpone the announcement of elections to first week of april and still constitute the new lok sabha before 5th June 2019

But if the tensions increase then election commission can postpone elections till June 2019 so that the new Lok Sabha is constituted by 13th August 2019

but if the situation changes further than session of present Lok Sabha can be called up to 5th June 2019 such that the need for election is postponed till November 2019

but in such circumstances Congress will make more noise than Pakistan

[ArjunPandit]

Brihaspati ji has pointed that whichever PM crosses international border e.g. Shastri, Indira, Rajiv is assasinated and Anglo powers will go after Modi now. He has decided to solve problem of Porkistan.

He will end it!

THE MAN DOESN'T WORRY ABOUT HIS OWN LIFE, LEAVE ALONE ELECTIONS.

I would like to quote an IA officer whose interview that was quoted on BRF, his words were
"any terror attack on the teritory that our military occupies is Indian teritory, Nuke attack on that is nuke attack on India". So that ways, IAF was anyways on our own territory.
Like kya hua madam said during one of the stand offs with India "Chinese forces are not even an inch outside the chinese border" Indian forces are always within Indian borders.

[Neela]

Watch what PM has said. Free hand to forces. They have come to press meets. They are deciding. In event of election and transfer of power, leadership will be lacking due to democratic protocol. So forces will be on their own under president. By giving free hand Modi has ensured smooth operation s.

This man I tell you. .

[khan]

Watch what PM has said. Free hand to forces. They have come to press meets. They are deciding. In event of election and transfer of power, leadership will be lacking due to democratic protocol. So forces will be on their own under president. By giving free hand Modi has ensured smooth operation s.

This man I tell you. .

I don’t think this is how it works. If there is a new Government, everything will grind to a halt until the new Govt reviews everything and makes a decision in what their policy will be. This is how Democracies work.

[manjgu]

Tapan... pl do educate me on whats strategy ? the two babus came...read a statement and ran away. Why did they call all the reporters for? if they didnt want to take any questions. Even their draft was ill prepared. Such a major event has happened and there is no proper briefing... senior ministers/ uniformed people should have taken the brieifing with well drafted notes and taken a few questions. 2 unknown babus came..read something and vanished... It looked like shoot and scoot. That was the time to rub in the casualties etc...