Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Aditya_V
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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Aditya_V » 05 Aug 2019 15:55

If Balakot was a failure may be but it was not public pressure but pressure from the Pakistan Army/ISI which made PAF act.

manjgu
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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 05 Aug 2019 16:38

khalsa ji.. 1) the B rakshaks can have their own opinion about any issues and its OK. always good to listen to contra opinion. But PAF is not a incompetent or idiotic force. they understand their limitations vis a vis IAF espicially after 1965 war ( when IAF grew and really matured in 1971) and accordingly is a defensive force with a focus on protecting their assets. But it is not so incompetent so as to miss a elephant sized target in broad daylight from within their own air space with their best crew and best a/c. Balakot was seen more of a slap on face of PAF not so much PA ( thought PA as conscience keepers of Pakistan also lost face). after terming Balakot as a total faliure , PAF was under no obligation/presure to hit a IA target least of all a Brigade HQ 2) the essence of my posts was that the so called targetting etc was a bait/red herring to draw out IAF fighters into a trap ( which at the risk of repetition was warned by ACM Tipnis). Their own risk of losing F16 prevented them from prosecuting AMRAAM launches properly. Abhi showing up was the real kicker as he single handedly put PAF under the pump. 3) btw I dont know how many posters have been to naushera area, its hilly but not big mountainous area ..its something like Kullu .

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby RKumar » 05 Aug 2019 17:02

Admin, can I request to close this thread? It seems soon we might require a new thread as our neighbor might be itching for a fight. :)

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby VikramS » 06 Aug 2019 08:53

@manjgu:

Smart weapons too need accurate targeting; including continuous lighting up of the target.

The targeting aircraft may have been forced to break its lock once the Mig21 emerged, and the Kopyo with its 50-60Km range started lighting up the RWR.

As others have noted, lobbing an LBG into a military compound but aiming it to miss significant buildings is not an exercise without risks. If all they wanted to demonstrate was the ability to lob weapons, they could have targeted border posts or ammo dumps or other dispersed assets or even a strategic bridge near the LOC. That they chose to target the Brigade HQ with the potential of causing casualty among the top-ranks of the IA showed clear intent.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Bishwa » 06 Aug 2019 09:05

The H-4s needed mid course guidance which the Mig appearance may have put a spanner on

"Each Mirage 5PA was followed by its control aircraft, a Mirage IIID, which was to steer the H-4 after launch through data link" From "Tufail"

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Aug 2019 10:04

at the risk of repetition ..1) IAF went and bombed a non military target and GOI was at pains to stress this point. ie we hit a non military target. IAF could well have hit PA HQ in Pindi if they could hit Balakot. in fact IAF need not even fly into Pak air space to hit PA HQ. 2) once IAF went in and hit Balakot ( and as ACM tipnis said immediately after, PAF will try something and most probably draw IAF into a air defence trap.). 3) so now planes from both sides are flying along/close to LOC on next day of Balakot. IF PAF real intention was to hit a IA Brigade HQ, it could have very easily done it from well within its own airspace. There was no need for PAF to come v close to the LOC. The target to be hit is to lased for few seconds only, not for hours. PAF had multple aircrafts F16's equipped with pods, LGB's, their best crews to do the job. they had no risk from IAF IF their only intention was to cause damage to IA Brigade HQ. Yet all of them missed when they had the luxury of lasing from well within their air space. Brigade HQ is not a piddly little tent ..its a fairly big complex. Yet they came v close to the LOC or even did a technical violation ( i cant say). What was the need of them coming so close to the LOC if they just wanted to bomb IA Brig Hq when they can do it from afar? 4) also bombing a military site in response to IAF bombing a non military site would have forced Modis hand for a counter attack. If 40 CRPF led to balakot, imagine what bombing of a military site would have resulted in. Neither Indians or Pakis wanted a military escalation. Pakis just wanted to save face and indians wanted to prove a point. 5) the only reason PAF did what it did was to draw IAF into a chase and hopefully bag a kill and call it even stevens. that was the best case scenario for them. Dropping some bombs onto indian territory was their next best scenario ( hamne bhi indians pur bum maar diya, hisab barabar ho gaya).

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Aditya_V » 06 Aug 2019 10:32

There was no need to waste and prove valuable H-4 ASM's in that case, dumb bombs would have been enough, and LGB you need to come 10-15km to the Target, not safe from well inside POK, they tried H-4- failed, it was then the F-16 with LGB tried to sneak in.

GOI might call it non military target, but for JEM and ISI they lost valuable equipment and men, and whats worse people in Khyber Pakatunkhwa know of this, the PA subsequent Jihad recruitment also failed.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby dhyana » 06 Aug 2019 10:44

Others have already made the points of wasting valuable weapons and the risk inherent in all weapons delivery. It doesn't seem plausible that a professional air force would intentionally aim to miss a target, and do so on a repeated basis such as in this attack. Just as it cannot be assumed that all weapons will hit their target, it cannot be assumed that all will miss. Battles are not fought this way.

Soldiers/airmen die even during routine training missions (shades of the recent King Air crash). So, we are to believe that the PAF commanders are tasking these airmen to risk their lives to bomb an empty field?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Aug 2019 11:07

dhyana..but in this case all missed. dont u think thats kinda funny. Aditya_v ...1) for how much time does a F 16 have to lase a target to hit it with a LGB?and from what distance can it do with a SNIPER pod. I ofc do know that Brig HQ is not bang on the LOC but a little deep. 2) but it was not a PA installation. the jehadis etc are expendable ..and i dont know what valuable equipment was lost !! except for small arms, ammunition, grenades etc at best.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Aug 2019 11:09

even for PA it was a non military target. there were no serving PA officers/men. If 40 crpf led to balakot, imagine if there were casualties at the IA brig hq, the hostilities would have escaltaed much further. there was no intention of escalation on both sides IMHO.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Aditya_V » 06 Aug 2019 11:16

Balakot was a back office of sorts, like the internet based expense communication equipment required to keep in touch with valley terrorists, it was miltary grade communication equipment, not cheap and easy for the PA to replace. Some of those controlling would have been serving ISI officers

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Kashi » 06 Aug 2019 11:19

manjgu wrote:dhyana..but in this case all missed. dont u think thats kinda funny. Aditya_v ...1) for how much time does a F 16 have to lase a target to hit it with a LGB?and from what distance can it do with a SNIPER pod. I ofc do know that Brig HQ is not bang on the LOC but a little deep. 2) but it was not a PA installation. the jehadis etc are expendable ..and i dont know what valuable equipment was lost !! except for small arms, ammunition, grenades etc at best.


I am surprised that you are not familiar with the technical details about LGBs and how long it should take to lase a target and at what distance, since you've being arguing forcefully and confidently that it was all part of game plan and done from "well within" their borders.

Secondly, are you assuming that that's all that was stored at Balakot? Just because it was not PA installation, it means that there were no PA/ISI there- as trainers, commanders, motivators. Are you confident that none of these were vapourised at Balakot? Are you aware of the entire inventory of the location?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Aug 2019 11:26

kashi...because someone alluded that probably it takes a long time to lase a target for LGB delivery. 2) if i am assuming, so r u assuming that some vital equipment was stored at balakot. i know the history of balakot ( from soviets in afghanistan times). why didnt IAF bomb a pure military target like PA HQ ? if it was so keen on a military target. No one potrays Balakot facilty as a military installation.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Kashi » 06 Aug 2019 12:02

Once again, I am not assuming but only asking you about how are you so sure that no "vital equipment" was "stored at Balakot". History of Balakot, what does that mean, have you followed and documented all the changes that have taken place at Balakot "from soviets in afghanistan times"? One way to do that would be to visit there personally, and I not so sure that you or most Indians (apart from those of very dubious persuasions) would have an opportunity do so. The other way is from open-source material that would have catalogued the "history of balakot". Could you please cite sources in support of your assertions?

Secondly, GoI never claimed that they attacked a military installation. In fact, they took pains to point out that they chose a non-military target in a way so that civilian casualties can be avoided. Secondly, the term military target itself is far from being unambiguous. Terrorist camps and launchpads along and way from LoC are not typically classified as military targets. Yet, there are enough reports to confirm that they are not completely without military presence in the form of men (trainers, handlers, controllers) and material (arms and ammunition, communication equipment). Why is it hard to believe that Balakot which is far away from LoC (and was thought to be less vulnerable to reprisals from India till 26-02-2019) and a nodal base for terror operations in J&K would be staffed with many PA regulars and equipment? Are you so confident that all that was lost at Balakot was "expendable jihadis" and "minor equipment"?

IAF made sure to target a non-military installation, PAF in turn attempted to hit a military facility. Why did PAF not chose a non-military facility, if it was only about establishing their ability to hit targets within India? Why this itch to reply to the successful bombing of a non-military facility by trying and failing to bomb a military facility? If it were only about showing the ability to hit, why not send a few jets, lob some bombs into India from within their territory and scoot back- point scored. Why surge in with a huge strike package (most of them armed with air-ground munitions), which thought increases chances of a successful hit, also increases risk of losing assets to the opposition, as it happened with Abhi taking down an F-16.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Aditya_V » 06 Aug 2019 12:05

Manjgu whatever, we arguing unessecarily
Facts
1. IA hit a JEM/ISI facility in Balakot and a couple more places in POK
2. PAF came Launched H-4 ASM's which missed, some even landed in POK, Tufail of POK claims 1 Mirage required to Launch, 1 required to guide. Some of these mirages got spooked before they could reach the target area
3. PAF F-16's launched multiple AMRAAMS at SU-30s well within our side of LOC/IB
4. 1 f-16 of 3 ship formation came close/crossed LOC after H-4's failed to launch a LGB after the H-4's failed, this bomb hit a tree close to Brigade HQ.
5. As soon as 2 aircraft where comign down - PAF and Ghafoora started shouting Su-30's down, 1 pilot captured , 1 being hunted and 1 in hospital. then after few hours to 1 Mig 21 down and 1 SU30 down, 2 pilots in captivity and later to only 1 pilot in captivity.

When 2 failed why take the risk to come close and launch LGB, all this points to PAF promising SU-30s and IA casualties, both failed. For us MI-17 friendly fire incident and non use to R-77's to disperse F-16's from targeting MIG 21 Bison.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Aug 2019 12:06

1) just to add ...there were far more juicy PA military installation short of Balakot which were not struck. This is really the first time I hear that some super sensitive / mil radio was installed at balakot ( and whose damage led to counter action). yes, there were retd ISI, army and possibly/probably a few serving officer too but the common understanding it that it was a general training / IED training/ RR facility for jehadis and that after SS1 and action by IA the jehadis had been located in the rear. I didnt mean u Kashi, i meant Aditya ( who said there was some super radio at Balakot). 1) which non military faciltiy can the PAF claim to hit on indian side of LOC?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Aug 2019 12:11

aditya ..my q is ..why didnt they use their top line F 16 to launch LGBs etc at IA installation in the first instance? and why Mirage ? isnt the F16 their best platform for strike missions which can both lase/launch LGB instead of the aging Mirages which require some other a/c to lase.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Aditya_V » 06 Aug 2019 12:14

manjgu wrote:aditya ..my q is ..why didnt they use their top line F 16 to launch LGBs etc at IA installation in the first instance? and why Mirage ? isnt the F16 their best platform for strike missions which can both lase/launch LGB instead of the aging Mirages which require some other a/c to lase.


Risk, LGB you need to come close and launch, ASM's and GPS guided Missiles and Bombs can be launched further back. F-16 Launched LGB's and GBU's are probably thier best PGM's available to them.

Thats H-4's ASM was launched well behind in POK by the Mirages, F-16 had to come close to LOC to launch LGB. LGB risk was taken after H-4 completely flopped with some landing in POK, if it about lobbing a few bombs for Pakistani awam, they could have launched dumb bombs from high altitude to land somewhere near LOC.

They came for both Su-30 and IA casualties. As yu said they never thought about escalation, they expect the world to save them. It is always our side which worries about escalation. Thats why I think the Other IAF aircraft did not fire any BVR missiles.

Their JF-17 neither bombed or launched any AAM but were part of Gafoora's twitter claims that only JF-17 were used later changed to F-16's might have been used.

Manjgu - iAF and NRo said there were JEM controllers at Balakot directing operations, how do you think they were communicating with people in Kashmir, through normal 2G cellphones- stop just trying to hold position and throw arguments, PAF came for blood that day.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Aug 2019 13:37

aditya...F16 launched LGB's were the best thing ( most accurate) in their inventory. if they had come for IA blood, they would ideally have used them first. Everything has a range including H4, ASM etc. their most modern LGB's have a max range of about 20 to 27 km depending on the altitude launched. So as per u , they could not find any jiucy IA target to aim at with a 20 to 27 km range on their LGB's? I dont deny that PAF came for blood but not IA blood, they wanted a kill. 2) u must be kiddiing me if u think controlling terrorists from inside Pak requires vvvv high funda top secret electronics/radio. They have been doing that since 1980's. Such high funda radios that its loss will piss of PAF/PA . PA is supporting their communication all along LOC. please get real. even having a super duper radio does not make it a military installation. All Ur arguments are pinned by the assumption that all of PAF is a vvv incomeptent force. All i am saying is that the H4, LGB;s were a ruse, a bait for IAF. anyway this is my analysis, i respect ur point of view. Lets agree to disagree !

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Kashi » 06 Aug 2019 14:06

manjgu, now you are clutching at the straws. So you admit that you have no idea what kind of a set up was at Balakot, what were the arrangements, how many TSPA/ISI were there, what equipment they had, what was destroyed in the bombing. All of your arguments are based on conjectures and assumptions about what you think you know about how TSPA handlers deal with their pet terrorists and as per you since it does not require advanced systems, ergo there were none at Balakot.

There are so many holes in your arguments that MKIs could sneak through and bomb Balakot again.

You talk about your analysis, yet you refuse to analyse the differing viewpoints put forth by posters, you have not even made attempts to address the questions raised against your "analysis", just that "it's my analysis".

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Aug 2019 15:05

I believe u have not read my posts properly. I never claimed to know for sure what was in balakote ( nobody amongst us knows for sure) . The uber sophisticated eqpt at balakote was Adityas argument. I just quoted what I read in open source that it was a jehadi training/IED manufacturing training/RR facility. Ofcourse I didn’t go inspecting balakote to be 100% sure about what was there. All of us here on the forum are only assuming.. includes u , me and Aditya. I am saying it was a non military/non PA installation. I never read that there was uber sophisticated eqpt at Balalote.

Why did IAF go all the way to Balakote…was there no significant PA installation between LOC and Balakote?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 Aug 2019 15:05

yes, on a lighter note, i would like MKI to go and flatten PA HQ !! if my arguments could help.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Khalsa » 06 Aug 2019 16:18

I get a feeling everyone agrees with each other ..... can we read more before posting.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby vasu raya » 06 Aug 2019 20:48

With Immy threatening about more Pulwama like incidents, MEA should call out the terror sponsors, even recently they were denying they had anything to do with Pulwama incident

this political Whack-a-mole game by MEA has to go on #FATF

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 07 Aug 2019 01:30

Guys we have milked this Balakot thing enough.

I was hoping folks would do an after action report of what worked and what did not and how to cover the gaps. Instead all we see is interminable arguments about a black cat in a dark room which is not there.

So i am closing the thread.
Anyway future action would not be at Balakot.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Rakesh » 07 Aug 2019 01:32

Ramana-ji, I have moved the thread to the Military Issues archive.


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